Guest Post: Is US Losing The New Cold War?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Authored by Kristina Wong and Jeremy Herb, originally posted at The Hill,

If there is a new cold war with Russia, many observers believe the U.S. is losing it.

First under President George W. Bush and now under President Obama, the U.S. and Vladimir Putin’s Russia have engaged in a series of foreign policy battles — and Putin has repeatedly got his way.

The Russian president’s objective is clear. He wants to reassert Russia’s influence in Eastern Europe while preventing NATO’s further expansion toward Russia, said Erik Brattberg, a resident fellow at the Atlantic Council.

Diplomatic fights over Syria in 2013 and Russian’s military clash with Georgia in 2008 have given Putin confidence in the current fight over Russia’s invasion of Crimea, a region in eastern Ukraine with long ties to Moscow. 

“He's counting that there would be no significance response from the U.S. and the European Union and so far he’s been right,” Brattberg said. 

Lawmakers and experts across the political sphere warn that if the Obama administration and its western allies are not effective in dealing with Putin this time, it could have serious consequences going forward.

And the dangers go beyond Putin.

China is closely monitoring what’s going on, Brattberg said, and could become more assertive in territorial disputes with its neighbors if it sees the West back down from Russia.

Of particular concern is a small group of islands in the South China Sea that both China and Japan claim, he said. If China were to use military force against Japan, the U.S. would be contractually bound to defend it. 

“It’s not like the Chinese are sitting there [thinking], ‘What can we take tomorrow that we maybe thought we couldn’t do a month ago,’” said Gary Schmitt, a resident scholar at the conservative-leaning American Enterprise Institute. 

“It’s more the case that some incident will happen and they’ll calculate: “Look, the U.S. really isn’t going to react,’ and they’ll take advantage of that situation,” he said. 

Putin has arguably emerged as the victor in a series of confrontations with the U.S.

In 2008, Putin caught U.S. officials flatfooted and annexed Georgian territory without serious repercussions, according to a recent interview in the Washington Post with Daniel Fata, deputy assistant secretary of defense for European and NATO policy from September 2005 to September 2008.

Last August, Russia thumbed its nose at the U.S. by granting former National Security Agency contractor Edward Snowden asylum after he leaked classified material to the press and fled the country. 

In September, Putin got the U.S. to back down from military strikes against ally Syrian dictator Bashar Assad, by brokering a last-minute deal to destroy Syria’s chemical weapons.

The deal had the advantage to Russia of ensuring Assad could stay in power, and since the deal Assad has solidified his control of the country.

Although Russia's invasion of Georgia happened during the Bush Administration, Brattberg said Putin views Obama as particularly weak and his "reset" policy as naive.

“Putin sees Obama as a weak leader. I would point to Syria in particular. We drew a red line and didn’t back it up,” he said. 

The administration has pushed back at such criticisms, with Obama this week saying Russia’s actions were a sign of weakness that would isolate the country.

The administration has taken several steps to make that happen.

The U.S. has sent six additional F-15 fighter jets to Poland to bolster a NATO air policing mission, and announced sanctions and visa restrictions that could be imposed on Russian leaders and entities found to have threatened Ukraine’s sovereignty.

But the efforts appear to have done little to slow Russia down.

Crimea’s autonomous parliament appears to be moving ahead with a vote to secede from Ukraine and join Russia. A referendum is planned on March 16.

Schmitt said that for the United States to turn the tide, it should take stronger steps such as admitting Ukraine into NATO or sanctioning Russia’s gas exports. 

“The legacy [for Russia] would look like: ‘It looked good at the time but now it looks like we really stepped into it,’” Schmitt said.

Brattberg said the U.S. should be doing more to lead and unify a fragmented European Union. 

“There has been some disconnect over sanctions between some European Union countries, and there is the need for the U.S. to really show leadership and lead them in the same direction,” he said. 

Critics doubt the administration can provide this leadership at a time it is looking to focus on domestic policy, end the war in Afghanistan, and pivot to the Asia Pacific. 

At the SASC hearing earlier this week, Republican senators decried shrinking defense spending as a part of the U.S’s GDP at a time when the U.S. was being challenged by Russia and China.

The White House’s 2015 budget request, unveiled earlier this week, would hold defense spending nominally flat for a third year and a decline in real terms.

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Sat, 03/08/2014 - 20:35 | 4526327 fooshorter
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Who ever wins. We Lose...

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 20:38 | 4526341 Murf_DaSurf
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My God, we all know war is a racket, Hot or Cold !

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 20:52 | 4526386 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Screw Putin.  He's Europe's problem.  Let them man up and get something done about it.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 21:02 | 4526421 Anusocracy
Anusocracy's picture

And how isn't Europe as least as big a problem as Putin.

They're nothing but yes-men for the world's most destructive and psychopathic country.

Backing the number one evil in the world easily makes you evil number two.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 21:13 | 4526454 Occident Mortal
Occident Mortal's picture

Obama's red line is on his face (and there's a yellow streak down his back).

Oh and the other thread with all the Ukrainian military...

They aren't mobilising they are defecting.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 21:14 | 4526462 johnQpublic
johnQpublic's picture

we need a mutherfucking thunder dome so these assholes can just go at it by themselves and leave humanity out of it

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 21:17 | 4526479 Occident Mortal
Occident Mortal's picture

The petrodollar ends on the 16th of March.

Plan accordingly.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 21:26 | 4526514 Miffed Microbio...
Miffed Microbiologist's picture

Hmmm, well there goes my birthday plans. Maybe I will set up my tires and burning barrel in keeping with the situation. How else can one plan?

Miffed;-)

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 01:20 | 4526979 Anusocracy
Anusocracy's picture

Have a Happy Birthday anyway.

Mine is about a week later

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 08:44 | 4527242 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Is US Losing The New Cold War?

 

It's kinda hard to criticize the communists....when we are the communists.

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 08:52 | 4527249 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

might not even know we're in a war

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 10:08 | 4527332 Bendromeda Strain
Bendromeda Strain's picture

"There's nothing like the smell of neocon in the morning. It smells like money!"

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 21:27 | 4526520 TungstenBars
TungstenBars's picture

Regardless of the pissing contest in the white part of world right now humanity as we know it is all in China's hands. 

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 02:31 | 4527048 Drifter
Drifter's picture

China backed up by Russia and the other BRICS nations, which I believe is about 3/5 of world population.

America's world policeman (bully) days are over, and when USD loses reserve status here fairly soon America's superpower days are over.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 22:36 | 4526668 klockwerks
klockwerks's picture

I had heard it was 3/4 but that came and went and now you say 16th. Any links or more info. I'm serious with the question

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 22:18 | 4526637 Anusocracy
Anusocracy's picture

Two chickenhawks enter -

One feather pillow leaves.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 21:22 | 4526501 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

@ Occidental

They are fighting a very French kind of war.  Please pass the brie and grey poupon.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 21:26 | 4526513 OpenThePodBayDoorHAL
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That's what America does, it "loses" wars (after wwII, anyway, and not counting GRENADA). But they keep starting new ones, I wonder why? Because the S&P 500 arms merchants win! Duh.

This stuff is not that hard to figure out.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 21:18 | 4526481 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

The EU is a frigging disaster.  Sane Europeans wanted free trade across the borders for small, interdependent countries.  What they got was another layer of government, accountable to no one.

The European problem is how to stay warm in the winter without Russia's oil and gas.  That's a problem they should solve. 

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 03:57 | 4527099 123dobryden
123dobryden's picture

first part very true

 

isit that hard to understand,that europe doesnt vitaly need russia but russia vitaly needs europe?

 

fortunately russia is weak, as putin made it weak, after his decade:

-there is still no sign of competitive manufacturing except arms, or have you ever seen Made In Russia?

-Russia is still country with of of the most unjust division of wealth

-there are still tens of thousands of SMALL entrepreneurs in jail for tax evasions

 

well, so far he is winning the battle of appearances, same like Stalin or late comunist leaders, but it is only appearances, reality is somewhere totaly else

 

majority of people here are usefull idiots regarding russia, that have never been there, just stop dreaming, accept reality or live a lie

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 15:05 | 4528094 johngerard
johngerard's picture

Europe won't do anything about it, because they can't. They have barely any military to speak of (relative to the US), because the US taxpayer has paid for their defence since world war II. All Europes's money has gone into insane welfare programs instead. They couldn't even flattten a few fucking tents in the Libyan desert without the US to back them up and hold their limp, sweaty hands.

And now they are exposed to a US withdrawing from the world, and everyone else licking their lips at the thought of it.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 20:55 | 4526395 Anusocracy
Anusocracy's picture

Another steaming pile of crap weekend article.

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 00:18 | 4526887 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

article = drivel

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 06:03 | 4527163 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

Drivel is too kind a characterization. It would imply that Kristina Wong and Jeremy Herb actually ingested what Gary Schmitt fed them. They really should just drop their names from the piece and republish it as an AEI diktat to the unthinking class in Washington.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 21:04 | 4526430 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

Forget the cold war.  We're losing the war on drugs.  Losing the war on poverty.  Losing the war on cancer.  Losing the economics war.  Losing the country to illegals.  Losing the hearts and minds of the citizens. 

We have elected losers.

 

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 22:00 | 4526599 Anusocracy
Anusocracy's picture

Not only that, we've surrendered to evil and have been overrun by stupidity.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 22:05 | 4526612 eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

Correction: We haven't elected anyone in power. 

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 21:04 | 4526432 RafterManFMJ
RafterManFMJ's picture

If I understand the gist of this article we must engage in nuclear brinkmanship over a matter that's none of our concern so China doesn't get the idea it can act with impunity in other matters that are none of our concern.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 21:18 | 4526483 Miffed Microbio...
Miffed Microbiologist's picture

I think your assessment is the best I have read on this matter. It is always unwise to play chicken with a train. Hubris from a nation rotting within is tragic and often ineffective.

Miffed;-)

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 09:49 | 4527305 nelsonmandella
nelsonmandella's picture

if its an oil war - yes we all lose 

oil in syria yes ! gas in ukraine yes !

 

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 20:48 | 4526374 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

How do you say "Wolverines!" in Russian?

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 20:50 | 4526382 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Red Dawnski?

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 20:53 | 4526389 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Found it... "Rosomakhi!"

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 09:04 | 4527258 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Thanks....that could come in handy.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 21:23 | 4526503 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

So what is the answer?  Violent revolution is always fun.  However, what if one were to simply try to position himself to benefit from these incidents?  Would not one perhaps become richer and more powerful?  How long until one is rich and powerful enough to have influence?  And so on...

Do something about it.  Stop losing.  Take advantage of it.  It is heinous but it is happening no matter how you feel about it.  Get something out of it.  Maybe someday, you or your son, will be able to do something to prevent it. 

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 22:39 | 4526675 Anusocracy
Anusocracy's picture

Join ranks with the killers and live a life of luxury as a savage animal.

I'll pass.

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 03:46 | 4527094 123dobryden
123dobryden's picture

position me then...

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 09:57 | 4527317 nelsonmandella
nelsonmandella's picture

russia 1912

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 09:57 | 4527318 nelsonmandella
nelsonmandella's picture

russia 1912

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 20:38 | 4526336 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Fool me once (does kegstand), wait, shit, I can do this....  Shame on

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 20:38 | 4526337 Murf_DaSurf
Murf_DaSurf's picture

 

 

 

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 20:54 | 4526391 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Si-lence is golden, golden...

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 20:41 | 4526347 One And Only
One And Only's picture

LEAVE BARRY SOETORO ALONE!

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 20:49 | 4526376 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

I'd love to.

Where do we sign the petition to extradite his sorry illegal alien ass?

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 20:43 | 4526350 monkman
monkman's picture

fuck the neocons

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 21:19 | 4526490 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

the Neo Cons under Bush are now the neo Bolsheviks under Obama. They just morph whjile their motives and masters remain the same.

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 09:07 | 4527261 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Perhaps you didn't get the memo.....the neocons are now progressives.

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 02:07 | 4527034 Missiondweller
Missiondweller's picture

So Obama is a Neo Con?

 

WHo the hell are you talking about? Wake up! Its 2014 not 2004.

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 09:07 | 4527262 crunchyfrog
crunchyfrog's picture

The clown who dictated this article to The Hill is an unreconstructed Bush era Neocon. 

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 20:49 | 4526358 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

Putin sees Obama as a weak leader. I would point to Syria in particular. We drew a red line and didn’t back it up,”

Obama did his best to start a major war with Syria by lying about the sarin attack but it did not work:

Pulitzer Prize-winning investigative journalist Seymour Hersh has published an article demonstrating that the US government and President Barack Obama knowingly lied when they claimed that the Syrian government had carried out a sarin gas attack on insurgent-held areas last August.

In the end, internal differences over the launching of direct military action, compounded by massive popular opposition to another unprovoked war in the Middle East, led the administration to pull back and accept a Russian plan for the dismantling of Syrian chemical weapons. This was followed by the opening of talks with Syria’s main ally in the region, Iran.

Hersh’s account of systematic manipulation of intelligence aimed at dragging the American people into yet another war based on lies underscores the fact that Obama’s retreat in Syria by no means signaled a turn away from militarism. Rather, it reflected a provisional change in tactics in relation to US hegemonic aims in the oil-rich Middle East, and a decision to focus more diplomatic and military resources on Washington’s drive to isolate and contain what it considers more critical antagonists: Russia and, above all, China.


http://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2013/12/10/pers-d10.html

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