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What 10-Baggers (And 100-Baggers) Look Like

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Jeff Clark via Casey Research,

Now that it appears clear the bottom is in for gold, it’s time to stop fretting about how low prices will drop and how long the correction will last - and start looking at how high they’ll go and when they’ll get there.

When viewing the gold market from a historical perspective, one thing that’s clear is that the junior mining stocks tend to fluctuate between extreme boom and bust cycles. As a group, they’ll double in price, then crash by 75%... then double or triple or even quadruple again, only to crash 90%. Boom, bust, repeat.

Given that we just completed a major bust cycle - and not just any bust cycle, but one of the harshest on record, according to many veteran insiders - the setup for a major rally in gold stocks is right in front of us.

This may sound sensationalistic, but based on past historical patterns and where we think gold prices are headed, the odds are high that, on average, gold producers will trade in the $200 per share range before the next cycle is over. With most of them currently trading between $20 and $40, the returns could be stupendous. And the percentage returns of the typical junior will be greater by an order of magnitude, providing life-changing gains to smart investors.

What you’re about to see are historical returns of both producers and juniors during three separate boom cycles. These are factual returns; they are not hypothetical. And if you accept the fact that this market moves in cycles, you know it’s about to happen again.

Gold had a spectacular climb in 1979-1980, and gold stocks in general gave a staggering performance at that time—many of them becoming 10-baggers (1,000% gains and more). While this is a well-known fact, few researchers have bothered to identify exact returns from specific companies during this era.

Digging up hard data from before the mid-1980s, especially for the junior explorers, is difficult because the information wasn’t computerized at the time. So I sent my nephew Grant to the library to view the Wall Street Journal on microfiche. We also include information we’ve had from Scott Hunter of Haywood Securities; Larry Page, then-president of the Manex Resource Group; and the dusty archives at the Northern Miner.

Note: This means our tables, while accurate, are not at all comprehensive.

Let’s get started…

The Quintessential Bull Market: 1979-1980

The granddaddy of gold bull cycles occurred during the 1970s, culminating in an unabashed mania in 1979 and 1980. Gold peaked at $850 an ounce on January 21, 1980, a rise of 276% from the beginning of 1979. (Yes, the price of gold on the last trading day of 1978 was a mere $226 an ounce.)

Here’s a sampling of gold producer stock prices from this era. What you’ll notice in addition to the amazing returns is that gold stocks didn’t peak until nine months after gold did.

Returns of Producers in 1979-1980 Mania
Company Price on
12/29/1978
Sept. 1980
Peak
Return
Campbell Lake Mines $28.25 $94.75 235.4%
Dome Mines $78.25 $154.00 96.8%
Hecla Mining $5.12 $53.00 935.2%
Homestake Mining $30.00 $107.50 258.3%
Newmont Mining $21.50 $60.62 182.0%
Dickinson Mines $6.88 $27.50 299.7%
Sigma Mines $36.00 $57.00 58.3%
Giant Yellowknife Mines $11.13 $39.00 250.4%
AVERAGE     289.5%

 

Today, GDX is selling for $26.05 (as of February 26, 2014); if it mimicked the average 289.5% return, the price would reach $101.46.

 

Keep in mind, though, that our data measures the exact top of each company’s price. Most investors, of course, don’t sell at the very peak. If we were to able to grab, say, 80% of the climb, that’s still a return of 231.6%.

Here’s a sampling of how some successful junior gold stocks performed in the same period, along with the month each of them peaked.

Returns of Juniors in 1979-1980 Mania
Company Price on
12/29/1978
Price
Peak
Date
of Peak
Return
Carolin Mines $3.10 $57.00 Oct. 80 1,738.7%
Mosquito Creek Gold $0.70 $7.50 Oct. 80 971.4%
Northair Mines $3.00 $10.00 Oct. 80 233.3%
Silver Standard $0.58 $2.51 Mar. 80 332.8%
Lincoln Resources $0.78 $20.00 Oct. 80 2,464.1%
Lornex $15.00 $85.00 Oct. 80 466.7%
Imperial Metals $0.36 $1.95 Mar. 80 441.7%
Anglo-Bomarc Mines $1.80 $6.85 Oct. 80 280.6%
Avino Mines 0.33 5.5 Dec. 80 1,566.7%
Copper Lake $0.08 $10.50 Sep. 80 13,025.0%
David Minerals $1.15 $21.00 Oct. 80 1,726.1%
Eagle River Mines $0.19 $6.80 Dec. 80 3,478.9%
Meston Lake Resources $0.80 $10.50 Oct. 80 1,212.5%
Silverado Mines $0.26 $10.63 Oct. 80 3,988.5%
Wharf Resources $0.33 $9.50 Nov. 80 2,778.8%
AVERAGE       2,313.7%

 

If you had bought a reasonably diversified portfolio of top-performing gold juniors prior to 1979, your initial investment could have grown 23 times in just two years. If you had managed to grab 80% of that move, your gains would still have been over 1,850%.

 

This means a junior priced at $0.50 today that captured the average gain from this boom would sell for $12 at the top, or $9.75 at 80%. If you own ten juniors, imagine just one of them matching Copper Lake’s better than 100-bagger performance.

Here’s what returns of this magnitude could mean to you. Let’s say your portfolio includes $10,000 in gold juniors that yield spectacular gains such as the above. If the next boom cycle matches the 1979-1980 pattern, your portfolio could be worth $241,370 at its peak… or about $195,000 if you exit at 80% of the top prices.

Note that this does require that you sell to realize your profits. If you don’t take the money and run at some point, you may end up with little more than tears to fill an empty beer mug. In the subsequent bust cycle, many junior gold stocks, including some in the above list, dried up and blew away. Investors who held on to the bitter end not only saw all their gains evaporate, but lost their entire investments.

You have to play the cycle.

Returns from that era have been written about before, so I can hear some investors saying, “Yeah, but that only happened once.”

Au contraire. Read on…

The Hemlo Rally of 1981-1983

Many investors don’t know that there have been several bull cycles in gold and gold stocks since the 1979-1980 period.

Ironically, gold was flat during the two years of the Hemlo rally. But something else ignited a bull market. Discovery. Here’s how it happened…

Back in the day, most exploration was done by teams from the major producers. But because of lagging gold prices and the resulting need to cut overhead, they began to slash their exploration budgets, unleashing a swarm of experienced geologists armed with the knowledge of high-potential mineral targets they’d explored while working for the majors. Many formed their own companies and went after these targets.

This led to a series of spectacular discoveries, the first of which occurred in mid-1982, when Golden Sceptre and Goliath Gold discovered the Golden Giant deposit in the Hemlo area of eastern Canada. Gold prices rallied that summer, setting off a mini bull market that lasted until the following May. The public got involved, and as you can see, the results were impressive for such a short period of time.

Returns of Producers Related to Hemlo Rally of 1981-1983
Company 1981
Price
Price
Peak
Date
of High
Return
Agnico-Eagle $9.50 $21.00 Aug. 83 121.1%
Sigma $14.13 $24.50 Jan. 83 73.4%
Campbell Red Lake $16.63 $41.25 May 83 148.0%
Sullivan $3.85 $6.00 Mar. 84 55.8%
Teck Corp Class B $17.00 $21.88 Jun. 81 28.7%
Noranda $33.75 $36.38 Jun. 81 7.8%
AVERAGE       72.5%

 

Gold producers, on average, returned over 70% on investors’ money during this period. While these aren’t the same spectacular gains from just a few years earlier, keep in mind they occurred over only about 12 months’ time. This would be akin to a $20 gold stock soaring to $34.50 by this time next year, just because it’s located in a significant discovery area.

 

Once again, it was the juniors that brought the dazzling returns.

Returns of Juniors Related to Hemlo Rally of 1981-1983
Company 1981
Price
Price
Peak
Date
of High
Return
Corona Resources $1.10 $61.00 May 83 5,445.5%
Golden Sceptre $0.40 $31.00 May 83 7,650.0%
Goliath Gold $0.45 $32.00 Mar 83 7,011.1%
Bel-Air Resources $0.81 $1.60 Jan. 83 97.5%
Interlake Development $2.10 $6.40 Mar. 83 204.8%
AVERAGE       4,081.8%

 

The average return for these junior gold stocks that had a direct interest in the Hemlo area exceeded a whopping 4,000%.

 

This is especially impressive when you realize that it occurred without the gold stock industry as a whole participating. This tells us that a big discovery can lead to enormous gains, even if the industry as a whole is flat.

In other words, we have historical precedence that humongous returns are possible without a mania, by owning stocks with direct exposure to a discovery area. There are numerous examples of this in the past ten years, as any longtime reader of the International Speculator can attest.

By May 1983, roughly a year after it started, gold prices started back down again, spelling the end of that cycle—another reminder that one must sell to realize a profit.

The Roaring ’90s

By the time the ’90s rolled around, many junior exploration companies had acquired the “intellectual capital” they needed from the majors. Another series of gold discoveries in the mid-1990s set off one of the most stunning bull markets in the current generation.

Companies with big discoveries included Diamet, Diamond Fields, and Arequipa. This was also the time of the famous Bre-X scandal, a company that appeared to have made a stupendous discovery, but that was later found to have been “salting” its drill data (cheating).

By the summer of ’96, these discoveries had sparked another bull cycle, and companies with little more than a few drill holes were selling for $20 a share.

The table below, which includes some of the better-known names of the day, is worth the proverbial thousand words. The average producer more than tripled investors’ money during this period. Once again, these gains occurred in a relatively short period of time, in this case inside of two years.

Returns of Producers in Mid-1990s Bull Market
Company Pre-Bull
Market Price
Price
Peak
Date
of High
Return
Kinross Gold $5.00 $14.62 Feb. 96 192.4%
American Barrick $28.13 $44.25 Feb. 96 57.3%
Placer Dome $26.50 $41.37 Feb. 96 56.1%
Newmont $47.26 $82.46 Feb. 96 74.5%
Manhattan $1.50 $13.00 Nov. 96 766.7%
Cambior $10.00 $22.35 Jun. 96 123.5%
AVERAGE       211.7%

 

Here’s how some of the juniors performed. And if you’re the kind of investor with the courage to buy low and the discipline to sell during a frenzy, it can be worth a million dollars. Hold on to your hat.

 

Returns of Juniors in Mid-1990s Bull Market
Company Pre-Bull
Market Price
Price
Peak
Date
of High
Return
Cartaway $0.10 $26.14 May 96 26,040.0%
Golden Star $6.00 $27.50 Oct. 96 358.3%
Samex Mining $1.00 $7.20 May 96 620.0%
Pacific Amber $0.21 $9.40 Aug. 96 4,376.2%
Conquistador $0.50 $9.87 Mar. 96 1,874.0%
Corriente $1.00 $19.50 Mar. 97 1,850.0%
Valerie Gold $1.50 $28.90 May 96 1,826.7%
Arequipa $0.60 $34.75 May 96 5,691.7%
Bema Gold $2.00 $12.75 Aug. 96 537.5%
Farallon $0.80 $20.25 May 96 2,431.3%
Arizona Star $0.50 $15.95 Aug. 96 3,090.0%
Cream Minerals $0.30 $9.45 May 96 3,050.0%
Francisco Gold $1.00 $34.50 Mar. 97 3,350.0%
Mansfield $0.70 $10.50 Aug. 96 1,400.0%
Oliver Gold $0.40 $6.80 Oct. 96 1,600.0%
AVERAGE       3,873.0%

 

Many analysts refer to the 1970s bull market as the granddaddy of them all—and to a certain extent it was—but you’ll notice that the average return of these stocks during the late ’90s bull exceeds what the juniors did in the 1979-1980 boom.

 

This is akin to that $0.50 junior stock today reaching $19.86… or $16, if you snag 80% of the move. A $10,000 portfolio with similar returns would grow to over $397,000 (or over $319,000 on 80%).

Gold Stocks and Depression

Those of you in the deflation camp may dismiss all this because you’re convinced the Great Deflation is ahead. Fair enough. But you’d be wrong to assume gold stocks can’t do well in that environment.

Take a look at the returns of the two largest producers in the US and Canada, respectively, during the Great Depression of the 1930s, a period that saw significant price deflation.

Returns of Producers
During the Great Depression
Company 1929
Price
1933
Price
Total
Gain
Homestake Mining $65 $373 474%
Dome Mines $6 $39.50 558%

 

During a period of soup lines, crashing stock markets, and a fixed gold price, large gold producers handed investors five and six times their money in four years. If deflation “wins,” we still think gold equity investors can, too.

 

How to Capitalize on This Cycle

History shows that precious metals stocks move in cycles. We’ve now completed a major bust cycle and, we believe, are on the cusp of a tremendous boom. The only way to make the kind of money outlined above is to buy before the boom is in full swing. That’s now. For most readers, this is literally a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.

As you can see above, there can be great variation among the returns of the companies. That’s why, even if you believe we’re destined for an “all-boats-rise” scenario, you still want to own the better companies.

My colleague Louis James, Casey’s chief metals and mining investment strategist, has identified the nine junior mining stocks that are most likely to become 10-baggers this year in their special report, the 10-Bagger List for 2014. Read more here.

 

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Sun, 03/09/2014 - 19:24 | 4528769 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Well, 10-Baggers and 100-Baggers look a little too speculative.

Now, physical gold going up 30x - 40x seems much more reasonable...

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 19:29 | 4528794 dryam
dryam's picture

Buying miners is gambling.  Buying physical is obtaining insurance.  These two things are at complete opposite ends of the spectrum.

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 19:38 | 4528816 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Plus the nationization risk if gold becomes manipulation free when the

paper makets collapse,.

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 20:00 | 4528882 fonestar
fonestar's picture
What 10-Baggers (And 100-Baggers) Look Like

 

Did someone say Bitcoin?

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 20:19 | 4528938 centerline
centerline's picture

I don't know, but I know what a double-bagger looks like.  That's where you need a bag for your head and one for her's, just in case one comes off.  Or, in the south, one for your head (or her's) and one for the dog because you don't want him to see what you are boinking.  ha ha.

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 20:50 | 4529024 AllThatGlitters
AllThatGlitters's picture

Wait, is Fonstar implying that somebody has introduced a 10X leveraged short vehicle for BTC? That might be a good 10-bagger candidate.

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 23:58 | 4529504 The Dunce
The Dunce's picture

10-baggers look like your mother's ass.  All flabby and not worth a damn.  Bitches.

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 21:40 | 4529177 Seeking Aphids
Seeking Aphids's picture

thought you were going to say...or, in the south, one for your head and one for her's because you don't want her to see.......

Mon, 03/10/2014 - 10:47 | 4530279 tiger uppercut
tiger uppercut's picture

No, absolutely no one said Bitcoin.

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 19:44 | 4528825 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

As you can see above, there can be great variation among the returns of the companies. That’s why, even if you believe we’re destined for an “all-boats-rise” scenario, you still want to own the better companies.

Yaz, the Juniors are going to be illiquid and the bid/ask differential is a bite in the ass.  They also tend to be Canadians, so the accounting is , ahem, speculative. 

I prefer physical, but if you need to own stocks in a pension plan or whatever, buy the best of the majors, and protect them with long term puts or put spreads.

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 19:45 | 4528826 BeanusCountus
BeanusCountus's picture

+1 Im a subscriber to their service. Only spec capital to their portfolios. Very small amounts of spec cap at that. Good analysis, no complaints there. As of today, however, juniors are more likely to go out of business than hit a home run. Thats the nature of the current cycle. Rather have some finished product in my hand than a geo study saying there is lots of it in the ground that can be mined economically at a profit.

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 23:19 | 4529420 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

I am a subscriber too.. I made good in 2010 but I took the brunt of the "worst selloff ever" these last 3 years.  Down about 50%. Meh... None of my picks went broke. I can handle an unrealized 50%..

 

One is down 80% but its got no debt and millions in the treasury.

A lot of these stocks are this low for the same reasons Twitter and Snapchat are so high. Complete and total delusion.

Mon, 03/10/2014 - 04:52 | 4529704 daemon
daemon's picture

" Buying miners is gambling.  Buying physical is obtaining insurance. "

Do you really believe that in 1979, when the price of gold went parabolic, there wasn't an awful lot of gamblers among the buyers of physical ?

 

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 20:05 | 4528894 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

Buying stocks in a manipulated market is a fools game. Physical Gold and Silver, in your possession, is all that counts. 

Now, physical gold going up 30x - 40x seems much more reasonable...

Or more.

Mon, 03/10/2014 - 05:28 | 4529719 daemon
daemon's picture

" Well, 10-Baggers and 100-Baggers look a little too speculative.

Now, physical gold going up 30x - 40x seems much more reasonable... "

May I remind you that talking about "10-Baggers and 100-Baggers"  or  "physical gold going up 30x - 40x" is probably meaningless ?

Ultimately, if the dollar or other fiat currencies fall to the ground, you may have to talk about  "1000-Baggers and 10000-Baggers"  or
"physical gold going up 3000x - 4000x" , and that will probably mean nothing about what that can buy in the "real world". 

Mon, 03/10/2014 - 13:31 | 4530892 TheRedScourge
TheRedScourge's picture

I hope you mean 3-4x not 30-40x, or else you're just being silly.

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 19:20 | 4528772 prains
prains's picture

LOFL!

 

its a long way to Friday.....

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 19:21 | 4528774 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Stawks bitchez!...lol.

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 19:39 | 4528820 Dr Benway
Dr Benway's picture

Stupendous returns! From extrapolating a chart! Yay!

Mon, 03/10/2014 - 01:29 | 4529593 U4 eee aaa
U4 eee aaa's picture

Yep, I've made many millions doing that. It never seems to translate back to trading though

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 19:21 | 4528776 Rakshas
Rakshas's picture

I'm tapped, silver lead copper I got  nothing left to play with....... hmmmmmm boy for sale!!!

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 19:31 | 4528800 Alpha Monkey
Alpha Monkey's picture

Wrong site, you need to head on over to the Afghan embassy.

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 19:48 | 4528840 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

or Morocco, Algeria, Thailand, Greece, San Fran...

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 22:56 | 4529361 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Don't forget Tunisia..

That’s apparently where Keynes got his.

 

http://www.keynesatharvard.org/book/KeynesatHarvard-ch09.html

 

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 19:22 | 4528777 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

I've been waiting since 2011 so yeah, hope it happens.

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 19:23 | 4528781 Magnum
Magnum's picture

Don't buy physical from Tulving.  He stiffed countless people for likely tens of millions $$ for lack of Physical delivery.  Closed up shop.  

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 19:25 | 4528787 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

I heard that too about Tulving.  This would be his second big fraud.

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 19:44 | 4528829 Duke Dog
Duke Dog's picture

Tulving is great -what BS are you spreading - couple of cocksukers!

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 19:55 | 4528863 Uber Vandal
Sun, 03/09/2014 - 20:00 | 4528880 Bill of Rights
Bill of Rights's picture

Obviously your reading skills need to be honed perhaps a set of balls on your chin would help.

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 20:22 | 4528945 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

Well, at least the website is still up and running.

And, at least he'll be able to use that scrotum as a chin warmer since hell has frozen over.

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 22:12 | 4529250 Magnum
Magnum's picture

As proof that Hannes Tulving belongs in the stripey hole, he dropped premiums to absurdly low levels in the weeks leading up to his bankruptcy, just to attract more suckers he knew would never get their gold.  

Scum exists in the physical market, it's name is Hannes Tulving.

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 21:01 | 4529055 greatbeard
greatbeard's picture

>> Tulving is great

Tulving was great.  Try to stay current or lose your ass.  I had dealing with Tulving and was generally satisfied.  I recently, 6 months ago, had second hand knowledge, a friend of my best friend, never got delivery and eventually had to force a cash settlement.  He ended up with the better price so he made a profit, but took a big risk apparently.  I registered it but didn't condemn Tulving necessarily.   But then again, I'm no longer buying or selling so Tulving doesn't really matter to me.  Turns out Tulving is a bad apple.  Sorry for the folks who lost cash or metals.

 

 

Mon, 03/10/2014 - 02:38 | 4529628 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

Duke Dog has been licking his own balls while Tulving has been scamming people.

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 21:33 | 4529154 hungrydweller
hungrydweller's picture

I have bought all of my phiz from Tulving with no problem.  The customer service on the phone can be a littel gruff but I have alwasy received what I ordered when they said it would arrive.

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 21:54 | 4529205 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

more than a little gruff:

Tulving just closed doors for good & filed bankruptcy and a class action lawsuit for losses has started.

http://about.ag/tulving.htm

http://www.ocregister.com/articles/tulving-604564-company-coin.html

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 22:08 | 4529242 Magnum
Magnum's picture

Count yourself lucky. Hannes Tulving ran a gold ponzi that started heading south six months ago. He went belly up last week.  The amount of money he scammed from customers is probably tens of millions.

What's more, if you paid Tulving and received gold, you may be required to return the gold to creditors pursuant to a class action settlement. You could be just as F'ed as the people who didn't get delivery.

Read up on your old friend Tulving in the news.

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 23:06 | 4529389 e_goldstein
e_goldstein's picture

Got to wonder if Kitco is next.

Mon, 03/10/2014 - 11:02 | 4530354 rpboxster
rpboxster's picture

I used Tulving in the past, without issue.  Customer service sucked, but the prices were great.  But, when delivery started being stretched out, I moved to Texas Precious Metals.  TPM only sell what they have available.  Great service, great people.  Very good prices, too.

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 19:25 | 4528786 flying dutchmen
flying dutchmen's picture

junior gold mining stocks are in general a scam.  with very little value added to the investor. 95-99% of the mining stocks eventually go to zero they do a stock rollback and rinse repeat on the promotion.  Casey sells subcriptions and then also raise capital. if they were really good at it they would run money and show a track record. ( but they dont).

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 19:36 | 4528815 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

most of it is just very expensive rock farming actually.
i mean forget about just the mining aspect...you also have to get the gold out of the mine...not an easy thing to do. You also have to have very friendly mining jurisdictions (there aren't many right now...Quebec, Nevada, Arizona are about the only three i can think of) and then you're gonna have the massive capital costs associated with the running of the mine.

It's no wonder even with the biggest price spike in generations most of these plays have been zero baggers in one of the biggest bull markets in history.

FCX looks good here...and the CEO has bought truly massive amounts of his own company's stock.

But here have been your "ten baggers" already: http://seekingalpha.com/article/2069253-commodities-today-fuel-cell-comp...

Ballard Power is up 250% to start the year. This is not even anything "new." This company...let alone the technology and the other companies competing in this space...has been around since the 90's.

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 22:58 | 4529366 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

i mean forget about just the mining aspect...you also have to get the gold out of the mine...not an easy thing to do.

It isn't a lot diffrent then any other commodity. There is positives.  You don't have to market gold. You don't have to worry about competition per se.

You also have to have very friendly mining jurisdictions

What about oil ? Same story there.. Even worse actually. You don't frac gold.

It's no wonder even with the biggest price spike in generations most of these plays have been zero baggers in one of the biggest bull markets in history.

Apparently you arent aware of the fact that from 2001 to 2011, gold miners beat the DOW and most indexes by hundreds of percent. And there was 1000% of percent of money made from 2008 to 2011 in the jr's.

 

 

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 19:50 | 4528849 logicalman
logicalman's picture

Paper promises are in general a scam.

Derivatives are a scam on a scam on a scam...........

The financial world is based on fraud and theft.

 

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 21:14 | 4529094 nmewn
nmewn's picture

But they never seem to run out of willing participants, it really is incredible, this thing called greed & manipulation

I hold before you ladies & gentlemen, an offer, that if you win, you pay me a commission and you pay "it" taxes on those winnings. If you lose, only slightly "it" will allow a write down for tax purposes of your other unconnected winnings to this loser, if you have any. If you win large, you're set for life but you have to bet large on this one thing. 

If you lose it all, well, you shouldn't have played at all then, should you? But thanks for the commisssion.

Not to worry, "it" will take care of you from here on out.

Next? ;-)

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 21:22 | 4529120 tenpanhandle
tenpanhandle's picture

Just because a prospect doesn't pan out doesn't mean it was a scam.  Certainly they are gambles but proper investigation and due dilly before purchasing can provide many exceptional opportunities, especially as so many are incredably undervalued right now.  Junior miners and explorers are important components to the process of discovering and opening mines and by extrapolation providing metals and mineral to the world.  Suck on that all you naysayers. Never saw such a onesided batch of comments on ZH.  Contrarian investment anybody?

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 23:01 | 4529376 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

Yep

It hurts to buy now. I have been but damn is it tough...

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 19:27 | 4528790 A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

Nothing is certain, stack responsibly.......

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 19:35 | 4528811 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  I'm not sure what 10 baggers look like. 

   100 baggers looks like the ,  United States Senate        Bitchez

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 19:43 | 4528824 PLira
PLira's picture

Damn, I wish I had a time machine.

 

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 19:45 | 4528833 Dr Benway
Dr Benway's picture

If you go searching for "ten baggers" (lawd I hate that term and anyone using it) you shouldn't be surprised if you get completely tea-bagged nine times out of ten.

In fact, you should fully expect that the majority of such speculative stocks will become worthless, if you have but an inkling of how risk-return works.

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 20:08 | 4528905 BeanusCountus
BeanusCountus's picture

Right on the money. To their credit though, advice is to take your original capital off the table on every double, let the rest run. Problem is there are not a ton of doubles. And at the end of the day, every home run counts on an increase in the price of gold. Not something anyone can predict any more than they can the price of stocks, bonds, etc with any accuracy.

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 21:04 | 4529043 oddjob
oddjob's picture

If you could hit 1 of 10, you would more than break even. Ventana went from 14 cents to 14 dollars.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/brazilian-billionaire-covets-ventana-gold/article1315767/

 

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 19:57 | 4528868 pitz
pitz's picture

What kind of mental midget calls a 1000% gain in a stock a 'bagger'?  Sounds extremely juvenile. 

Mon, 03/10/2014 - 13:56 | 4531020 StandardDeviant
StandardDeviant's picture

I believe it comes from baseball slang: a "four-bagger" being a home run.

And if you think that's juvenile, spend some time on a trading floor...

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 19:59 | 4528874 Stanley Lord
Stanley Lord's picture

Stopped when he said the bottom for gold is in.

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 21:15 | 4529097 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

I stopped when he omitted Bre-Ex.

Sorry, couldn't resist.

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 21:33 | 4529155 tenpanhandle
tenpanhandle's picture

Am I missing the joke? He certainly did mention Bre-x and the scam that it was.

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 22:03 | 4529228 oddjob
oddjob's picture

The joke is he looks like a fool for commenting without reading it.

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 23:04 | 4529384 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

ooohh ahhhh Bre-X

How is it that so many people remember Bre-X... Its more popular then Enron for fuck sakes...

 

Maybe that's why gold miners can barely get traction. The dumbest generation on earth (boomers)  all got burned with Bre-X

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 20:03 | 4528891 29.5 hours
29.5 hours's picture

 

 

I would jump right on this and become rich just like the article promises--but someone told me you can't eat gold mining stocks. Bummer.

 

 

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 20:12 | 4528914 Azwethinkweiz
Azwethinkweiz's picture

Here's my thought on gold mining stocks...

If Russia and China decide to settle in their own currencies or gold, abandoning the petrodollar, I would be worried that our US government would begin to nationalize the gold miners. Seems far fetched, but it could happen...

I'd rather hold physical...if I were to hold anything relating to metals.

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 20:26 | 4528958 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

And, make sure you have a lot of boats on backorder. I hear some of those boating accidents result in the loss of metals along with the boat.

Long arm floaties and swim lessons.

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 21:25 | 4529130 pitz
pitz's picture

Nationalized gold miners wouldn't produce anything.  Just like the US government.  They tried a lot of crazy shit in the 1930s, but the gold miners were left alone.

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 23:05 | 4529388 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

Why not oil ?

Mon, 03/10/2014 - 08:59 | 4529894 WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

Hard to hold?  Oh, you mean paper oil.

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 20:25 | 4528955 deerhunter
deerhunter's picture

biggest hit was a spec play in a company on the Toronto exchage at the time.  Ultra Petroleum,  Hell of a ride up.  Made a deposit on a home purchase. Still a good stock.  Bought a buck and change and let it ride.  Lots of losers in spec stocks of any kind and for poker money only.  

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 20:31 | 4528983 exartizo
exartizo's picture

The bottom is NOT in for gold.

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 20:32 | 4528986 max2205
max2205's picture

Nflx 35.to.450....suck on it bitcheszzzz

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 20:37 | 4528997 FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

Gold going to double digits, silver to low singles. Its inevitable.

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 21:03 | 4529065 greatbeard
greatbeard's picture

Gold to $99, seriously?

 

 

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 21:07 | 4529076 FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

Seriously. As long as the Comex is in control, any price is possible.

 

Gold now down under $1330 with the world on fire. Seriously? Yes, seriously.

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 21:32 | 4529147 medium giraffe
medium giraffe's picture

AU $99? D-bagger.

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 21:50 | 4529197 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

and with less happening it was under 1200, soon it will be over 1300, and the world's not on fire. The world's smoking a cigarette in bed without an ashtray. We're nowhere near fire yet.

Mon, 03/10/2014 - 08:46 | 4529794 SoilMyselfRotten
SoilMyselfRotten's picture

If it's ever $99 again, you'll never be able to buy it at that price

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 21:49 | 4529196 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Gold at $99 per gram,yes, I can see that. Same with silver at least $6/gram.

Good calls.

Mon, 03/10/2014 - 04:25 | 4529684 BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

Blankfein...that you? If fucking so, use the god damned shotgun we left for you, and follow the "How To Kill Yourself With A God Damned Shotgun" instruction manual we left for you - you baby-raping bastard.

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 20:42 | 4529003 Newager23
Newager23's picture

Removed for formatting problems.

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 20:54 | 4529035 HisNameIsRP
HisNameIsRP's picture

I'd rather own scratch offs than a junior mining stock, less of a gamble.  Gold could go to 2000 and you still might loose your ass.

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 20:57 | 4529039 Newager23
Newager23's picture

Here is a list of potential 25 baggers from my database at www.goldsilverdata.com. I also have a list of potential 50 baggers, but those are very high risk. Most of these are actually very good investments if gold prices rise.

Company------------------Symbol--Price---Shares---Mkt Cap
African Gold Group Inc.--AGG.V---0.15---154.00M--$23.60M
Amara Mining Plc---------AMZ.TO--0.18---176.00M--$33.32M
Arian Silver Corp--------AGQ.V---0.78---50.00M---$39.21M
Astur Gold Corp.---------AST.V---0.36---45.00M---$16.22M
Atacama Pacific Gold-----ATM.V---0.75---56.00M---$42.40M
Atlanta Gold Inc.--------ATG.V---0.03---354.00M--$12.76M
Atna Resources Ltd.------ATN.TO--0.19---152.00M--$30.14M
Aurcana Corp.------------AUN.V---1.01---72.00M---$72.69M
Aurvista Gold Corp-------AVA.V---0.05---80.00M---$3.97M
Barkerville Gold Mines---BGM.V---0.50---135.00M--$68.14M
Batero Gold Corp---------BAT.V---0.13---104.00M--$14.06M
Candente Gold Corp-------CDG.TO--0.05---72.00M---$3.89M
Carlisle Goldfields------CGJ.TO--0.05---338.00M--$19.80M
Carpathian Gold Inc.-----CPN.TO--0.05---744.00M--$40.24M
Clifton Star Resources---CFO.V---0.37---41.00M---$15.15M
Edgewater Exploration----EDW.V---0.06---129.00M--$8.72M
El Tigre Silver Corp.----ELS.V---0.22---76.00M---$17.13M
Euromax Resources Ltd----EOX.V---0.22---98.00M---$22.08M
Freegold Ventures Ltd.---FVL.TO--0.20---83.00M---$17.21M
Geologix Explorations----GIX.TO--0.06---179.00M--$11.29M
Gold Canyon Resources----GCU.V---0.33---159.00M--$53.03M
Golden Reign Resources---GRR.V---0.17---121.00M--$21.27M
Golden Tag Resources-----GOG.V---0.08---65.00M---$5.27M
Gowest Gold Ltd----------GWA.V---0.06---198.00M--$13.39M
Gran Colombia Gold Corp--GCM.TO--2.27---22.00M---$49.97M
Loncor Resources Inc-----LON-----0.18---79.00M---$14.93M
Magellan Minerals Ltd.---MNM.V---0.08---149.00M--$12.09M
Minco Silver Corp.-------MSV.TO--1.01---66.00M---$67.23M
Mines Management Inc.----MGN-----1.68---33.00M---$55.44M
Moneta Porcupine Mines---ME.TO---0.12---199.00M--$24.22M
NWM Mining Corp.---------NWM.V---0.00---547.00M--$4.93M
Northern Freegold--------NFR.V---0.03---186.00M--$6.71M
Orezone Gold Corp--------ORE.TO--0.57---93.00M---$53.23M
Pan American Goldfields--MXOM.OB-0.05---136.00M--$8.02M
Revett Mining Company----RVM-----0.85---39.00M---$33.15M
Sage Gold Inc.-----------SGX.V---0.02---145.00M--$3.27M
Sandspring Resources-----SSP.V---0.27---144.00M--$38.94M
Seafield Resources Ltd.--SFF.V---0.04---249.00M--$10.10M
Silver Bear Resources----SBR.TO--0.19---58.00M---$11.50M
Silver Bull Resources----SVBL----0.37---179.00M--$66.23M
Silver Predator Corp-----SPD.TO--0.07---62.00M---$4.75M
Spanish Mountain Gold----SPA.V---0.08---219.00M--$18.75M
Sunward Resources Ltd.---SWD.TO--0.20---192.00M--$39.81M
Telson Resources Inc-----TSN.V---0.04---53.00M---$2.39M
Timberline Resources-----TLR-----0.14---79.00M---$11.61M
Touchstone Gold Ltd------TCH.TO--0.00---243.00M--$2.19M
Vatukoula Gold Mines-----VGM.L---0.12---252.00M--$30.15M
Victoria Gold Corp.------VIT.V---0.13---362.00M--$48.95M
Vista Gold Corp.---------VGZ-----0.64---104.00M--$67.18M
Wildcat Silver Corp------WS.TO---0.55---151.00M--$83.03M

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 21:20 | 4529115 flacon
flacon's picture

You should put Tinka Resources on that list. TK.V

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 21:32 | 4529149 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 lol Flacon! An good Man you are!

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 21:47 | 4529192 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

AGQ.V - that's bull & so is the rest of your list. I've held that & made profit from it before but it broke correlation to silver to the upside which shows me it isn't to be touched again. Last traded it in profit in 2010 and won't touch it again.

Mon, 03/10/2014 - 03:05 | 4529639 tenpanhandle
tenpanhandle's picture

also, steer clear of GoWest.  It has already gone south.

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 21:44 | 4529160 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Forget mining shares. USLV. That's what a 100x bagger looks like.

USLV currently is around silver 3.92 / 2800 and as decay goes with time this will likely hit 4000 for silver=50 and 6000 for silver=100

USLV closed at http://scharts.co/1jEPpmy 54.14 when spot closed at 20.90 and for this day the equation yields 20.9 3.92/54.14 = 2,763, not quite 2800 but close enough given volatility of the constant in watching for the decay of the ETF as shown here http://flic.kr/p/kprn3f.

100x 54.14 = 5,414/share (not including splits along the way, same with mining stocks), so at what price of silver is 5414 matched? Probably with the 4000 constant for the decay evolution, so let's start there.

silver 3.92 / 4000 = 5414 so (4000 x 5414) 1/3.92 = silver = 74.357 per oz.

Now, tell me which mining stock will have 100x the price for a silver price of 74.36/oz? NONE. Not a one.

Now let's look at the 10x cost and try a 3500 constant for the evolution of decay from the current level around 2800.

541.40 per share is 10x the USLV price close.

silver 3.92 / 3500 = 541.4 so (3500 x 541.4) 1/3.92 = silver = 39.942 per oz.

Now you tell me which silver miner will do that. A spot price USD rise to 39.94/oz is 91% increase (1.91 factor) from 20.90/oz spot USD, and I'll tell you right now not a single mining share will do it.

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 22:02 | 4529226 kw2012
kw2012's picture

Used to be loans were a zero sum game. Once countries started lending themselves money they printed, it set the doomsday clock ticking.

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 22:19 | 4529268 bluskyes
bluskyes's picture

Any discussion of gold, and silver prices that references the 1970-1980 time period - without mentioning the Hunt Brother's role, is dis-ingenuous, and only seeks to mislead.

Mon, 03/10/2014 - 00:41 | 4529554 CitizenPete
CitizenPete's picture

Some drilling operations conducted during my Junior years definately required double-baggers.

Mon, 03/10/2014 - 01:37 | 4529598 U4 eee aaa
U4 eee aaa's picture

So we shouldn't sell at a top, we should only take 80%? So how do we know when we hit 80%? And if we know it is at 80% can't we figure out what 100% is from there?

Mon, 03/10/2014 - 02:45 | 4529631 silverstud
silverstud's picture

OK this is where I get confused

everything here is based on WORTHLESS FIAT

Why discuss the subject of manipulated or not physical gold or silver when FIAT is clearly bullshit.

There is NO debate - it's all bullshit. The emperor has no clothes.

So knuckle down with real PM assets and wait for the sheep to fuck themselves to oblivion with their FIAT trash.

YES ... I have been a hoarder of PHYSICAL silver and gold for years because the leopard does not change its spots

 

 

 

Mon, 03/10/2014 - 03:08 | 4529641 qazwsx
qazwsx's picture

Owning physical is essential.
Owning miners CAN be profitable, especially juniors.
As long as yo do your research, monitor the market, and set your stops, the risk of losing your principle investment is low.

Mon, 03/10/2014 - 04:51 | 4529701 Sufiy
Sufiy's picture


Peter Schiff and GATA's Bill Murthy: The Real Value of Gold 

It is time to listen and remind ourselves about the real value of Gold and what is coming next with all geopolitical games unfolding at the crucial levels for US Dollar and Gold markets. China is the major subject of conversation here again and Russia is already talking about the asymmetrical retaliation to the imposed by the West sanctions around the Ukraine situation. Gold manipulation can not go foreverwith China buying the record amount of Gold officially and who knows what are the real numbers in its state-level military plan to accumulate Gold for the De-Dollarisation reset?
  Peter Schiff's question about China buying more Gold companies could be answered very soon if the rumours about CITIC being involved in talks with Barrick Gold about Pascua Lama will be confirmed. This huge mine is located on the border of Argentina and Chile, it is in the very advance development stage and China  will be just the right partner for Barrick over there.
  China has mastered "The Art Of War" to the perfection in its long-term strategic plans to secure the critical materials and metals. China's control of the crucial REE market for the high end technological applications is well known already and its participation in establishing of the world class Lithium Industry and accumulation Lithium assets around the world deserves the attention of the market as well.

 

http://sufiy.blogspot.co.uk/2014/03/peter-schiff-and-gatas-bill-murthy-r...

Mon, 03/10/2014 - 05:10 | 4529716 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Gold is continuing on its corrective move upward under wave 4 as we had forecast

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/spot-gold-daily-pulling-channel-resista...

 

We also forecast the renewed euphoria when this occurred.  We have been up since December - perhaps wait for a pull back.

Mon, 03/10/2014 - 09:24 | 4529973 The Shape
The Shape's picture

Moar shitty newsletter sales posts!

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!