This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Behold, The InVIXible Hand
The last few days have seen credit markets weaken drastically, Treasuries rallying, precious metals bid, and copper prices collapsing... but amid all of that stocks are "staying the course." Perhaps the following 3 charts of the last few days will explain where that magical bid is coming from...
It seems the last hour of the trading day sees sellers arrive (and protection-seekers) worried about overnight angst in Asia... but out of nowhere at 1540ET, VIX is slammed lower (as traders dump protection like a bad case of the crabs) and that lifts stocks close to (or even above) green...
Perhaps, somewhere, someone wants oil prices lower and Russian stocks lower but wants to show the US equity market as the great bastion of trust and security the world can rely on?
»
- 13780 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
These markets are a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.
Looks like Russia needs a war to distract the sheep
Perhaps, somewhere, someone wants oil prices lower and Russian stocks lower but wants to show the US equity market as the great bastion of trust and security the world can rely on?
Y'all iz cray.
I´ll bet that Vitru had another green day...and Jaime as well.
The oligarchs bought the dip on Putin's 'it's all legal baby' news conference. Once Crimea gets sucked back into Russia, Russian markets will rally.
While Europe and America does nothing. Hence markets are bid. China will be watching this very carefully after Russia threatened the US with UST sell offs, those islands look tasty now.
"Out of Nowhere"... Not Exactly
That VIX bitch has 33 Liberty fat fingerprints all over it !
How does one slam the VIX? What is being sold? Does it imply someone is selling put options to balance out the selling of call options?
Those are the same questions I have. What are the mechanics behing the VIX proping up the S&P? Where is the money coming from in regards to the VIX to support the SP?
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=4&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CDoQFjAD&url=http%3A%2F%2Fnewyorkfed.org%2Fresearch%2Fstaff_reports%2Fsr601.pdf&ei=wdEgU6juCo7qoATQpoKgCA&usg=AFQjCNGItUHuvEuSRUzUcm_F2XvPCvB5yA&bvm=bv.62922401,d.cGU
page 23
Greenspan / Bernak / Yellen put bitchez
Selling SPY puts will do this. It drops the price of the puts and the vix drops with it. Cheapens the downside protection and you're able to either hold your position or continue buying.
The theory is the fed is selling the puts via market conduits and creating a bid in the market.
It's an actual Bernanke/Yellen Put
And if the Yellen sold VXX (VIX futures) - surely the VIX would follow.
Except when it doesn't, as is visible here: http://scharts.co/1cUr5Jf
and close up here: http://scharts.co/1cSnqkD
but super close up it does look lined up; http://scharts.co/1cUrjA7
But shouldn't that be proveable? I mean isn't there data some where that would show X number of puts being sold? - and assuming here that it would have to be a rather large number of puts..... is there any research on this to prove the fact?
The VIX will never see > 20 again! EVER!
Just not until next time. Which is right around the corner. Vix about to explode higher. And everyone that has dumped protection will be left naked in the skankiest of whore houses in Detroit.....
Why would you want it to?
Markets ????
I believe Obumma created another Department - "The Department of Middle Class Eradication and Oligarch Propagation" This new department is now in charge of all of our financial markets. Adjust your investments as you see fit.
I would strongly suggest that you take advantage of the government funded subsidy to keep physical gold and sliver prices artificially low. Stack high, stack often, my friends...
That's their M.O. exactly...brute force, in your face...winning is not good enough unless the other guy loses...so OT
Credit markets haven't "weakened drastically." High yield is off some, but IG hasn't really budged.
No country for old men, this market is... Only fools, banksters, congressmen, & HFT dare to tread here. Retail investors were casually disregarded in '13, but they will be left high and dry when the money machine siezes up. The only problem is this time there will be no magic grease to get it unsiezed again. Tread carefully traders!!!
Yeah, it's interesting to think of what options are left since the Great QE to Infinity & Beyond is all played out. Magic grease, indeeed! Fiat printing/debt creation will be ramped up to nosebleed heights worldwide and fear will be palpable yet we will be told "there's no other way".
Hello the last Austrian Crack-up Boom of the oil era. Hyperinflation and war qued up right on time.
I hate that this sounds so apocalyptic but my fear is when we in america go down economically, the war genies won't go back in the bottles and starvation in our own cities will herald a whole new reality that gets established by the FSA at the margins. And the politicos that will cheat steal and bribe now will just go on steroids during any sort of social upheaval.
Won't be purty and won't be easily "fixed". Keep stackin'!
Sounds just like yesterday.
The " normal operating perameters" of VIX historically/ vs equity levels/ are closer to 20..
Tyler had this great access to BBG : mvoluse>risk tracking BBG terminated the link.
I'll do some homework. http://www.statmethods.net/graphs/pie.html
http://wtfrly.com/2013/03/11/trading-volume-on-us-stock-markets-show-a-d...
What all the geniuses behind market manipulation still do not realize, is that at some point. And that point is very near, the Russians don't give a fuck about what the Western media says or does and what the 'markets' say or do.
Where do you get the idea that VIX slamming is 'causing' the SP to rise. I follow VIX (via VXX) very closely and movement in the SP index 'causes' VIX to move and not the other way around. Activity in volatility indices and instruments are less than 1% of the volume of equity indexes
agreed. the vix witch-hunt is comical
well... maybe not. If VXX, UVXY, HVU are traded enough & maintain their trend curves then perhaps in order to do so that necessates the trades of SPY, SPX options, DIA, etc. etc. , that actually causes the skews that move the actual bid prices. It's all a matter of what the HFT algo's read & react to.
So is the dog wagging the tail or the tail wagging the dog?
Busch's fault!
Poppy Busch........
@ Bear, your comment is simply not factual.
VXX (aka ) reverse volatility, is is being manipulated via OIS, short term reverse REPO, and continuing POMO operations.
You're one of the best chartests' I've seen. The technicals have changed, for a brief period. ;)
I up<>voted you!
You are probably right since the 'controllers' must keep all levers in motion at the same time to keep their stench from being whiffed by the sheep. The same model is probably making both plays simultaneously and as I observe (in human speed) movement, I attribute it to the SP as opposed to a linked and coordinated effort.
p.s. gold/silver and platinum are probably all included in the model mix as they cannot get too far out of line.
p.s.s if China is coming unglued we might just be approaching a cliff. Can you imagine the day where ES doesn't levitate?
And that's how we trap them. This complex lever-recombination actually ends up dictating optimal positions & optimal rates of change to get there. Not just optimal but also impossible on the other side. This creates conditions where only massive suicidal damage can keep gold & silver down. This then leads to lesser damage to their other positions, a decent slam down in gold/silver on a regular time-series basis, but then the game runs out. They chase local minima only to find out the global minumum they are seeking is discontinuous from the path they've chosen.
That's how we get them. We stack all along the way & a few of us could get away with a paper play or two in the process.
HVU & UVXY for the win!
Did you guys consider that what is happening could be funds unloading stocksand then unloading hedges, which would ironically lift the vix?
Fuck it.
When I look at the madness out there in the big wide world, my brain starts to melt.
Ethanol only helps so much.
The financial markets should start each day with 'once upon a time.......' because they are all one fucked up fairytale.
Yellen knows how to use her aging sagy nipples! I think I just barfed...............
Im sitting in cash righ now that could make some hay in this market but I don't have the nerve. It's smoke and mirrors and the skank Hellen is burning up her magic pecker
-Cleetus