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Bitcoin Was 2013's Best "Risk-Adjusted" Performer
US equities surged... Japanese stocks soared.. and Europe recovered greatly but on a risk-adjusted-return basis, Goldman Sachs notes, nothing beat Bitcoin in 2013...
2014... not so much...
Daniel Masters of Global Advisors sums up his allocation to Bitcoin:
I am optimistic about its prospects for success, but I am not unrealistic. I have a personal and professional investment in Bitcoin, so clearly I am talking my own position. But I have invested precisely what I am prepared to lose 100% of. That is how risky I think it is. I do not normally go around making investments thinking I might lose 100%. I only do so when I think I have a chance of making many multiples of that.
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Investments gone wild...
How much does it cost to mine from the ethers?
First rule of bitcoin: do not question volatility.
Second rule of bitcoin: do not question volatility.
And to answer your question: 1.21 jiggawatts. ;)
Oh no! Fonerats will never stop blabbing Bitchcoins now!
So Bitcoin is now an investment?
Can I also put down investment losses of $40k if I accidentally put my money on red instead of black?
pods
At this time Bitcoin is more of an investment than a currency. Who freaking cares? Buy it now before the 'tards catch on.
Were you the cab driver that was telling me about Florida condos sometime around 2005?
pods
No, fonestar is that crazy guy saying you need to get into computers in 1989.
'89? Maybe I am older than I thought.
What is great about Bitcoin and P2P technologies in general is this is where it takes us.... people will be forced to choose between total control and surveillance or else total freedom and anarchy. There is no middle ground here.
Is man essentially good in nature?
Judging by the number of hacks and stolen bitcoins, I'd say the answer to your question is no. How many people thought thier bitcoins were safe only to see them vaporized.
The problem is that nature is inherently evil. It isn't really survival of the fittest, but survival of the most devious. It is only when one rises above the instict of eating ones own children to survive that you start to be good. Wall Street hasn't ever learned this.
This is very similar to an anti-gun argument. That some inanimate object can be subjectively labeled "good" or "evil". Also, the black market ties in deeply with the very essence of fungibility in a way that few mainstream economists have explored. fonestar will submit that in order for something to to have any market value it needs to be able to be stolen and traded away.
This shit just never fucking stops does it?
'Bitcoin Was 2013's Best "Risk-Adjusted" Performer'
If you have any left, maybe. Risk adjusted for what?
So if Bitcoin is such a hot performer, how does one account for the missing $500mm?
Inquiring minds want to know?
DaddyO
No, stupid minds want to know. That $500 million is gone into other hands and will still circulate as it should.
So the stolen goods are still in circulation?
Wow, back in the day there were laws against such shenanigans...
Dealing in stolen property, conspiracy to commit fraud, theft just to name a few.
This is all good in your cryptocrap world?
DaddyO
If stolen dollars could be revoked, the black market would implode. If the black market imploded it would send devastating shock-waves throughout the regular dollar-based economy.
Cause and effect... you fail miserably.
'That $500 million is gone into other hands'.. so that's what we call stealing now is it, 'gone into other hands'...
Foney you are without doubt a complete fucking whacko. And you say it like it's a selling point...
Bitcoin has performed like a stock, and one that went into a bubble, I might add.
I do not agree. You can not compare cryptocurrencies with stocks. Stocks have usually some fundamental value behind them (earnings, real estate, knowledge of technology, resources, ...). Cryptocurrencies are backed by absolutely nothing. Cryptographics can make it secure but it can't create value out of nothing. Everybody can create as many cryptocurrencies as he wishes if he has the right technology out of nothing. How can you determine a value for any of them? I think the whole concept is insane.
so SHORT IT!
Mine it, then sell it all
Why would I short it, if I can't determine or rationally guess what the market value will be? I do not gamble on unpredictable human stupidity, period.
Nobody online gives a flying fuck about your "laws" and your "morals".
That is true. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have much bigger problem than morals. They are much worse than fiat counterfeited by goverments. Everybody can legally create with equivalent technolgy as many cryptocurrencies out of thin air as he wishes. I guess that by your standards they all will be excelent investment because they will be "secure" and government can not control them.:-)
http://polis.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=371808
That congressman is smoking the good shit. Even as a rhetorical exercise it was lame.
fonestar loves how when you can't discredit anything he says, you need to look to "morality" and fantasy lands to explain why the future should go the way you envision it.
Keep the lulz a comin' boys!
Look at which state he is from.
exactly
Thanks for your post, it just spoke volumes about your character or lack there of...
It is appearant that your mother failed miserably to imbue you with any semblance of morality.
I would add that you as a person will go the same way as your "bitcoin" when the flag goes up.
You sir, have failed miserably...
DaddyO
People like youself have these stupid fucking fantasies about the way the world should work. And then you dress up your fantasies with "morality". Your fantasies come at the expense of reality and will not save you.
My stupid F'n fantasy is to be nearby when someone takes a big F'n stick to your pinhead.
Then I'll really get my jollies when they take your cryptowallet and stuff it up your...oops my fanatsy seems to be getting out of hand.
And yes, I am one of those weirdos who believe in laws and rules and boundaries all dressed up in morality.
$500mm in lost, stolen, hacked or whatever you want to call it, is a serious impediment to a wider adoption of any cryptocurrency.
As someone who touts bitcoin ad nauseum, you should be really worried.
Satoshi obviously never anticipated such a hack or he/she would have planned a little better don't you think.
I think the whole bitcoin community should view this as a serious blow to wider adoption of their precious save the planet from bankers meme.
And finally, I do not live in a fantasy world and do not look for anyone or anything to save me from reality.
In my reality, there is only one Saviour and I have imibed fully, thankfully!
DaddyO
Are those like your laws that say fonestar can't buy $1 million dollars worth of cocaine? Or those laws that say fonestar can't send $1 Billion dollars to Tehran? Or those laws that say people can't sell organic milk? Or sell sex for cash? Or collect rain water? Or have chickens in their yard?
Your "laws" are a fucking joke and are going to be sent to hell where they so rightfully deserve to burn.
And it was an exchange that was hacked you stupid geezer. If you're going to spout nonsense at least try and get your facts straight. fonestar knows it's hard for you people to tell the difference between currencies, exchanges, companies and stocks though.
Strawman much, Douche?
DaddyO
Fuck are you stupid
Discredit a single thing I have said, moron.
the black market will never implode. Its all that is left of the free market that hasn't been regulated by decree.
There is lots of currency and gold outside the system. The only problem is the value of currency and therefore the asessed value of all things like Bonds or Realestate, are tied to the artificial and inflated value of Fiat. As long as there is a functioning currency the huge fortunes stay intact by staying ahead of currency destruction. When Fiat falls off a cliff what will anything be worth. Everything will be a black market.
You're right, the black market will never implode. So if the USD goes kaput, what are some of the more likely replacements? And you don't think that will be felt in the regular economy?
The currency value of anything is illusory. So far it seems the only fans of BTC are tech nerds and retail drug barons. Why hasen't the big black money jumped in. Look at that poor fucker in mexico, 200 million in cash siezed by the cops.
.
So I assume you are going to get rid of all of your gold, since nearly all gold has been stolen at some point.
You're not some kind of big fat smelly hypocrite, are you?
Tmosley, do you own land or real property?
DaddyO
Good point but why is Jon corzine a free man today if he is responsible for the same type of shenanigans??
If you are following the logic of others in this thread, analyzer, evidently MF Global shows the underlying assets have no future.
See!! I knew Fonerats would be here blabbing away about how great Bitchcoin is!
blab blab blab blab bitcoing blab blab blab blab fungibility (to appear smart) blab blab blab blab..
Give it a rest you mook!
Imbued by the glow of Satoshi's katana, fonestar shall never rest.
Only you could say that...
Please let me invite you to my Aikido dojo and I will personally show you the finer points of my Katana.
DaddyO
There are things that sell on the market that cannot be stolen directly or even if stolen cannot be profitably resold. Example of both: the services of a painter who paints personal portraits.
The NSA is doing its damndest to make P2P obsolete. I don't think anyone except FS is confident in their ability to thwart the borg. Man is human in nature, and so it ever shall be. How safe is anything on any computere anywhere? Not much...
https://firstlook.org/theintercept/article/2014/03/12/nsa-plans-infect-m...
Why has NSA not been able to shutdown P2P so far then?
Duuhh - The banksters don't want them too
So the king commands the tides, he just doesn't feel like it right now?
If BTC were such a threat TPTB would just Putin the idea.
Yeah, things only exist if TPTB allow them to exist. You boot-licking tard.
And aren't you the revolutionary, you're going to change to world and save all us moron and tards from ourselves. Well no thanks, I sure i speak for many here when I say I can look after myself and don't need you or anyone else to save me.
BTC is a fraud and you won't change that
You're again assuming that the digital conduit for p2p will remain clean and free and unfettered and unmolested. Those matters are far from settled.
It's not your internet. You're a node. Your p's are nodes.
If you'd like to argue that face-to-face is an alternative, then you're undermining the tele feature of cc's, and at that point you might as well be trading rabbit pelts or wampum.
No...you are the fucking fascist that runs around whining about people bruising your tender sensibilities and getting other real contributors banned....
Fuck off and die Phony!!
fonestar didn't get them banned because they bruised his "tender sensibilities". He did it for the lulz and because he could.
"I use the enemy and I use anarchy".
Here...I have a saying.....'Little man, littler penis'
Feel free to use that and you can copy it over and over...just like buttcoin.
Sorry. I understand the possibilities of cryptos...but when you go round fucking with long time ZH commenters "for the lulz" and because you can? Damn dude.., you are using "anarchy" like Lenin and communists of the early 20th century used it. It doesn't make you an anarchist - it makes you a totalitarian.
Here is one of the most amusing things about Phony....
He idolizes Ezra Pound who was a fascist and racist SOBs....but s/he uses racial accusations to ban others that appose his view point....extending his fascism across the site. And yet we do not ban him for this disruptive nature toward free speech or his/her disgusting attitude/treatment toward others...but the site ultimately becomes the fascist forum where freedom of expression slowly dies.
Pound radio broadcast, 15 March 1942 – You let in the Jew and the Jew rotted your empire, and you yourselves out-jewed the Jew ... And the big Jew has rotted EVERY nation he has wormed into.
Fuck off and die Phony....or whatever disinfo org that sent you.
fonestar didn't get them banned because they made racist comments, you dope. He got them banned because they were anti-Bitcoin and then used racism as an excuse to ban them.
No, buttcoin boy, you had them banned because you are a fascist a-hole that can't abide others viewpoints.
Fuck off and die Phony....
fonestar will not process incorrect viewpoints. You are correct.
Does the fact that buttcoin is a system that is easily manipulted, rife with corruption, easily hackable from any corner of the world and FIAT,FIAT,FIAT fit into your world view?
Fuck off and die Phony...
Haha.. "easily hackable" you fucking tool.
MOAR LULZ!!
So you don't deny the others.....
And yes it is 'hackable' if your system is designed for people (normal users) to have their nodes connected to the internet.
http://www.wired.com/wiredenterprise/2013/11/inputs/
Love this quote - “I don’t recommend storing any bitcoins accessible on computers connected to the internet.” So the average user is going to have a hardened or standalone system that is immune to being 'hacked'? Obviously not....and there again is another chink...oops...kink in the armor. If the average user can't trust not being ripped off, they won't use it...hence no widespread adoption.
And kinks don't mix well with FIAT based systems...
Fuck off and die Phony!
Why would you use an unencrypted wallet that isn't backed up anyways? This article is another one about an exchange/storage facility being hacked.
Yet another braindead poster who doesn't know the difference between currencies and companies but feels qualified to comment anyway.
So what happens when someone's computer is hacked and keys/wallet stolen?
Do they just pray to the great Sadushi that they come back?
Must be getting desperate to find some suckers to unload your ponzicoins on... 83 posts already today. Why anyone would take you seriously at all with your infantile posts is beyond me.
You post some really funny and often well thought out ideas on here that I usually enjoy reading.
Your evaluation of Bitcoin is completly wrong and comes off as ignorant.
I suggest taking some time to educate yourself properly on the subject.
Give it 5 hours of your time and I can guarantee you that your view will change.
Start off here: https://www.khanacademy.org/economics-finance-domain/core-finance/money-...
5 hours of brainwashing later...
Come on, you think the public en masse is going to adopt something that takes 5 hours to be convinced of? You do know the avg attention span is around 24 seconds?
TBH, if I spend 5 hours reading something, of course my view will change! Because otherwise I will be sitting there for 4.5 hours thinking "This is a waste of my time!"
That's why the link I provided includes videos.
And the public en masse is never going to need to or care to understand the workings of bitcoin. Companies like Coinbase are making it easy for anyone to use.
Plus, we are never going to be in a society where every single person uses crypto currencies. There is plenty of room for a parallel economic system.
Who are you, Fonestar's replacement??
More than one virtual person on Earth is a fan of Bitcoin? It must be a conspiracy!!
Moron.
What about few millions of parallel economic systems? Still plenty of room for all of them? Everybody with the equivalent technology will be able to create many of them. How is that going to work? What effect will it have on values of those cryptocurrencies?
How long does it take to explain to someone how fiat currency works?
The public at large doesn't need to know how it works. They just need to know that it does.
No, he was telling you to invest in condoms in Florida! It was just before Spring Break, and timing is everything!
Bitcoin has an element of goodness about it.
However, to discard the fact that bitcoin is itself virtual nothingness in our ever (d)evolving nothingness financial world is absurd.
Tulips & Manias.....
Are systems nothing? Did the dot.com bubble stop networks and technology from advancing?
I'm accepting BTC and LTC in my IT training business.
I still don't see how it is any less a fiat currency than USD or EUR. At least I can spend USD anywhere. Most of the cryptocoins I receive as payment are just going to be converted back to paper anyway, though I'll hold some fraction back to see how it goes as an investment.
Hold them and make sure they are backed up well in an encrypted wallet. This train hasn't even left the station yet. Remember, for something to be a "bubble" or a "mania" people actually have to own said investment. Nobody owns Bitcoin.
Even less people are mining. Unless you've got at least tens of thousands of dollars to chuck at the highest end ASICs, it's not worthwhile at the moment, as I understand it. Altcoins are another matter; there are a few auto-switching altcoin pools that mine whatever is most profitable at any given moment, then convert into BTC daily. I've been doing this for around 3 months now, and it's remarkably hard work to get everything working properly, but when you get there, a working figure is 0.01 BTC per 1000 kh/s per day. A high end graphics card will give you something like 750kh/s, so you're looking at a payback time of around 4 months at the moment, though alts have been dropping the last few days. There are no more than 50,000 people globally involved in mining in any serious way from what I've seen of the various pools. Probably quite a lot less than that, as some people are running mining farms into the tens of thousands of kilohashes.
I don't get the goldbug disdain for bitcoin. It's a decentralised currency without a bank; I've bought a few things with bitcoin now, and the payments are almost instant, there are almost no fees, and there is no freakin' bank involved. I don't know that bitcoin will be the best crypto in even a year from now; all the problems with the exchanges lead me to think that a currency with a decentralised exchange (like NXT) is the way to go, equally something really anonymises the blockchain, rather than pseudonomises it (like darkcoin) is a good idea. I see gold as something to hang on to for the long run, and bitcoin as something to spend; they seem to complement each other to me.
Great comment, thanks for the info on numbers of people mining. I do not know enough about BTC vs. other altcoins, but there really does seem to be a future for them. My own research and asking experts at bitcointalk.org leads me to think that indeed BTC is pretty secure.
Yes, it is risky! I would doubt that 2013´s huge price rise is really "risk adjusted" (at least in my book), especially based on 2014. And recent prices are more important than price action in the past, IMO.
But, If I were to only choose to hold ONLY BTC and gold as investments (I hold both now as well as other kinds of investments) here is how I would break the two down:
-- 90% Gold (proven valuable for 6000 years)
-- 10% Bitcoin (looks like a winner, but complicated and who knows)
I don't think the crypto genie is going back in to the bottle. Witness the comments from Dimon about how bad a store of value it is; simple confirmation that banks are afraid of its potential.
My only change to that ratio would be to include reasonable chunk of silver, too.
You are right the the crypto genie is not going back in to the bottle. And that is exactly the problem. Number of cryptocurrencies is going to grow rapidly. Soon enough everybody will be able to get on the web perfectly secure software to create many more cryptocurrencies out of thin air.
You said you bought bitcoin at <$50. Trade them in for cash and you have 10 times what you paid for them. If I had "mined" or bought a signifcant amount of bitcoins that early, I would sell 90%-99% of them. Take the cash and buy real investments, land, and PMs. There are only two reasons you are holding bitcoin:
1) You don't have two bicoins to rub together and hoping that your one bitcoin will be worth 6-7 figures one day. Never going to happen.
2) You actually have a lot of bitcoin and are delusional or not satisfied with 10x gains. You're playing with fire. Take the gains.
The only people spending bitcoin in quantity are people who got them for nothing. Overstock and othters are just taking advantage of the situation. They would accept dog turds if there was an exchange for it.
hahaha... "gains" in a dead currency? Moron.
You missed the part where you trade in those gains for real investments or PMs. Everybody knows you are a PHONEY. Your one bitcoin will never be worth that much.
http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story/351405/scitech/science/internet-tro...
Why not transfer them to www.kraken.com and do some BTC/LTC pair trading to take advantage of movement between the 2 pairs. You will be staying in crypto, so any upward movement vs fiat won't be missed.
Interesting. I'll look into this.
I'm getting into cryptos for the same reason I got into gold and silver: Insurance against a collapse in paper currency. There is no reason why cryptos and PMs cannot compliment each other. My only hesitation comes from the fact that cryptos are still backed only by the faith of it's buyers and sellers.
The same can be said for gold and silver though. Without the faith of their buyers and sellers, they would be equal to the demand for their use in products.
Don't forget that cryptos are backed by the proof of work algorithm and blockchain.
"Without the faith of their buyers and sellers, they would be equal to the demand for their use in products."
Which would put a solid floor underneath PMs...probably more like a springboard, as it would reinforce the fait of buyers and sellers that there is still a market for them.
The same cannot be said for cryptos. They have no industrial utility, and so may not have a floor to bounce off of in the market. In any case, I'm willing to hold some in my encrypted wallets to see how they do when the paper kind of fiat go up in flames. Just looking towards the future,,,cautiously.
"Don't forget that cryptos are backed by the proof of work algorithm and blockchain."
True, unless of course a majority of hashing power for some reason opts to say nyet (actually less than a majority in several scenarios).
Also, I could spend plenty of kW scribbling a mechanical crayon across a paper, and a host of authorities could verify that, "Yep, that's paper, and yep, that's crayon", but it doesn't by necessity make the unique scribbles worth anything.
Like fiat and Tinkerbell, you have to believe. "Oh, but this is a difficult endeavor, and therefore the result should be worth something to you!" "Uh, no, not really." There is absolutely an element of "finding the bigger idiot" (or equal believer) to this. Fiat is at least something that a guy with a gun is telling you that you have to believe in. Me? I'd prefer not to believe, but if everyone else is going along with that, then the fiat ispo facto has value.
What a great chart, Tyler. Thanks!
If the dollar collapses, internet coins won't be worth anything. There may be other reasons to buy bitcoin, but protection against a collapse shoudn't be on that list.
Practically NOBODY owns or knows about bitcoin. Do you think people will be lining up to buy them after a collapse? You are crazy.
"You are crazy."
Your momma said the same thing to me when I got done rocking her world.
Understand that the vast preponderance of my hedge versus currency collapse is and always has been in PMs. But having a small fraction in cryptos is nothing more than keeping a toe wet as I evaluate its potential. If you are simply writing of its potential for failure of imagination, I'd say that you are the one who is crazy.
What I do not understand is how some ZHers fail to see how these cryptos (BTC/LTC in particular) can't go hand in hand with a strategy of having PMs on hand (or at the bottom of a lake). I think that if fiats collapse, cryptos will most definitely surge in price. But if they do not, no sweat off my nuts. I only have a very small hedge in the them at the moment.
Agreed 100% and I have the same sentiments.
The only issue with crypto is that it starts off as a hedge/small part of your portfolio, and quickly becomes your largest holding.
Fonestar - a bitcoin fool (and troll)
"He is feeding all the trolls ("zeroheads") there without losing energy and enthusiasm"
.
.
"FoneStar is the troll"
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=470593.0
"When the derps over at Zerohedge start upvoting Fonestar, sentiment may have flipped. Water still safe for Bitcoin bulls – BrotherJohnF"
http://www.thebitcoinchannel.com/archives/33428
Thanks for the link. fonestar needs to hang out at Bitcointalk.org more often but he's kinda a one bit pony.
right......
@fonestar
Funny how it took a few years of Bitcoin beating Precious Metal's ass into the ground before Tyler decided it deserved a mention. Eh, we all did well regardless :)
Not that PM's are a "loss" in the long run, you put what you want into them - I just find it funny that Tyler can't be bothered with performance metrics until Goldman Sachs is putting out charts on the subject. Guess we know where that information source bias is, eh?
Anyway, looks like we'll be lock-and-loaded for a June-July mega-rally, if not sooner. That'll put the "..not so much for 2014" to rest, LOL.
Have a good one, man.
Hey asshole how's that parity working out for you
FUCK YES MOAR BITCOIN!!!
By what mechanism do you suggest acquiring Bitcoin?
Dollar cost averaging on localbitcoins.com or one of the more established exchanges. Again, fonestar does not recommend people who are not familiar with safe backup and storage to buy significant Bitcoin.
"Dollar cost averaging"
LOL that's a good one. You already told us that you got yours for $50, then sold some at $200, then bought back in at $400. Now you want, someone to buy at $630?
Honest question, not that I expect an honest answer:
How many (or fractions thereof) did you buy at $800? $1000? $1200?
P.S. the OP might want to review http://blockchain.info/charts/market-price?timespan=2year&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=
My salary is paid in BTC at market price every Monday. So, I've acquired BTC at all of those price points. If I feel the market is running somewhat hot I convert part to fiat/PMs -- at my own discretion. With the earnings saved from before the November bubble my compensation has appreciated 50% as of today.
So you got in early and have been able to offset the 50% haircut since that crash.
And that's supposed to be a selling point to new investors...who did not get in early???
You want them to believe that there will be a "Getting In Early Part II"? The last 14 weeks tell a different story, and you have a difficult sell.
If you take the end of day average on every Sunday since the crash, you'd be better off having been paid in USD, and so would the investors you're pitching. That is irrefutable. And THAT was my point re the DCA baloney.
Side note: you noted many times that you were taking advantage of the spread between GOX and other exchanges. You still have Btc on GOX's ledgers but evidently not in their wallet: may I ask how much?
I have $3000 lost on Gox, roughly equivalent to my arb profits over (wasted) time.
www.coinbase.com
Do what you do for fiat and accept bitcoin instead.
But if fiat goes under, you can still use it for toilet paper. How do you wipe your butt with a worthless bitcoin?
Bitcoin will not become worthless. The people in the know realize why that is. Nobody is going to sit down with you and spend a career's worth of time bringing you to that level of understanding.
Problem solved: https://www.bitaddress.org/
Nobody has been able to answer fonestar as to why "volatility" is a bad thing for Bitcoin and a good thing for fake silver?
Volatility in a proxy of temporary store and exchange results in wide swings of purchasing power in the short-term - not a desirable result unless you know when the dip is coming or when the rally is going to take place. Artificially induced volatility in PMs do matter to the short-term holder but do not to the long-term holder.
The volatility floor of PMs can only be pushed to the boundaries of production costs. Is there such a thing for BTC? As far as I am aware, there is not.
Volatility for Bitcoin is no different for people convinced of its ultimate victory than it is for precious metals.
That, we can both agree on. However, PM victory has a multi-millennial track record, and I'm sticking with it.
You don't need to choose between PM and Bitcoin. If you think Bitcoin might have a chance, go buy $20 worth of BTC. Some of your preps that are going to go bad anyway are worth far more.
The price of BTC finds a floor with it's cost of production as well. It cost a certain amount of money to buy and operate the mining equipment. Once miners start to see a negative ROI they will stop selling their coins and it will remove SOME liquidity from the market. Price vs difficulty/hashrate is a good indicator of this: http://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
Damn I wish I saw your post earlier, because I would have replied that:
While I appreciate that you emphasized the word "some", you overestimate the impact of what you propose. During the last 4 weeks there have been an average of 4500 Btc mined/day. Or 0.35% daily increase in total Btc. That's an invisibly tiny blip compared to the number held by a half dozen big players.
Also, what makes you think that the biggest players in the mining pools are currently selling their Btc? Their is zero proof of that as far as I know. The biggest miners today might still be the same ones who were around in 2009, and the historical data on # of Btc destroyed as a % of cummulative Btc days irrefutably shows that shitloads of those oldest coins are still uncirculated. We've seen two as yet inexplicably huge single day spikes in days destroyed. That might be SOME old coins being laundered to give the appearance of circulation.
More like 3600 coins created per day, until late 2016 when that figure will be halved.
We can't really know what the miner's are doing with their coins. Some are selling immediately, some are waiting for higher prices in the near to medium time frame, some are just hoarding for the long term.
There was a difficulty adjustment today. It "only" increased 11%. This is the lowest increase since June 2013. Again, we can't know the minds of all the miners, but the market is pointing to $640/BTC as near equilibrium for current hash power.
The record days destroyed has been tied to Mt.Gox in this transaction
https://blockchain.info/tx/4ee89f7cf824a85ad5f11d52604ffdebe9f01302bcea8ddec0af450f9185ddf1
With comments: http://redd.it/1zshct
Congrats, becoming a bitcoiner. Why care about volatility short term when it goes significantly up long term?
Great explanation of bitcoin
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vd19SboRhVY&list=UUi7GJNg51C3jgmYTUwqoUXA
Perhaps there is a reason professionals are paid more than layman? Maybe layman should stop being such layabouts?
Made for the average IQ of a goldstacker.
what needs to be reviewed by btc enthusiasts and by cc enthusiasts in general is not the curve of USD/btc but the curves of ltc/btc and other cc's/btc.
those other "me too coins" and "why not me? coins" are pulling ahead in the race. this was utterly predictable as btc has nothing backing it other than a fickle network of other people's assets.
as has been noted many times, the barrier to entry is nil for all practical purposes, and the cost for consumers and more imporantly merchants to drop btc and switch to wtfcoin is equally nil. that doesn't bode well for any product, and btc is not immune to that.
as other cc's emerge (some already technically superior to btc), they each eat a piece of the pie. the question for btc enthusiasts, is whether the pie will grow faster than the number of forks (pun intended). recently it has not been growing faster. we should see btc pull back and normalize to the leading contenders while those contenders move up in price.
would the cheerleaders agree with that?
I've zero doubt that the pie will grow, but btc is a victim of its success as it inspired (literally) competition.
I doubt that anyone has a crystal ball and can say what will occur then, and the time frame is still far from certain, but if I could buy LEAP puts at $400/btc I'd happily have as early as a Mar 2015 exp date.
550,000 investors got robbed by one of the three bit thieves exchanges. gox. factor that in when decideing risk adjusted.
I need some bitcoin futures
Bitcoin IS the future!
bitcoin is soooo ... last year's fad.
not fad, fraud. 550,000 people got robbed so far. one of the three bit thieve exchanges caused harm to 550,000 families.
http://mpex.co/
2014... Not so much... Yet...
Just get ready for it... the next big rally should take us up to $4000/BTC.
By the time STC hits $4k most all will have been stolen save for only those savviest of the cryptojunkies.
How many STC can you fit in your mom's basement?
pods
There's much more savvy cryptojunkies than fonestar and he has never had any stolen. Pretty clear you are clueless about what you are talking about and never used Bitcoin.
I've never shot heroin either and I still know it's dangerous.
pods
Ironically, fonestar is building another IPSec tunnel for a client as we type.
So do you get paid to push bitcoin on ZH?
"@fonestar is good fun.. quick cutting replies. He is doing well; I've seen a couple others helping out there too. It's all good.. gets people thinking and Zerohedge is a good crowd to encourage."
So do you get paid to push bitcoin on ZH?
No, fonestar is a crypto-philanthropisser working towards the betterment of all virtual beings who strive towards Satoshi conciousness.
"all" does not include 550,000 people who were robbed by one of the three bit theive exchanges and your comment was "they can go to hell".
"the next big rally should take us up to $4000/BTC."
2 simple questions: When and why?
I've read too many blowhard claim to have predicted the timing of the most recent crashes - as if they had advance knowledge of, for example, the Chinese govt's actions or the Karpeles faux pas.
Here's your chance to distance yourself from the other windbags. Have at it.
Failing to answer the question, why not stick your usual 5 or 6 digit USD/btc drivel?
P.S. the last big "rally" retraced a drop from $1200 to $576 in 2 weeks, and in the following 2 weeks reclaimed some of that on the way back up to $934...prior to the fall back to $528.
When have you EVER seen a "rally" reclaim all and more, much less more than a 7X increase? I'll save you the time: NEVER.
http://blockchain.info/charts/market-price?timespan=2year&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=
Why? Simply, because there is 8 million Dollars of debt for every bitcoin in the world.
And there's 1.7 trillion dollars of US govt debt for every one of my toes, and 170 trillion dollars of US govt debt for every gram of my navel lint. Hint: no one wants that either.
What you're really looking for is the total amount of USD and other fiat, and then divide that into the number of Btc, and you're way off btw.
You have the false assumption that every bit of every govt fiat will have no recourse other than be converted into Btc. You neglect to consider Ltc, Nmc.... wtfc, not to mention cars, real estate, booze, smokes, equities, rabbit pelts, and wtf.
With all due respect, if you're as facile as your posts herein indicate, then my earnest advice would be to stay away from Btc. If you make a nickel in the endeavor consider yourself a fool who lucked into the nickel.
Bitcoin has had 4 bubbles and has started to develop a pattern. BTC traders know this and are tending to follow the pattern. If the pattern holds there could be another bubble in the June/July timeframe with a top above $4000.
http://i.imgur.com/u9Yh30Z.jpg (sorry for using Gox chart -- actually only Gox was around during the earlier bubbles)