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Bitcoin Was 2013's Best "Risk-Adjusted" Performer
US equities surged... Japanese stocks soared.. and Europe recovered greatly but on a risk-adjusted-return basis, Goldman Sachs notes, nothing beat Bitcoin in 2013...
2014... not so much...
Daniel Masters of Global Advisors sums up his allocation to Bitcoin:
I am optimistic about its prospects for success, but I am not unrealistic. I have a personal and professional investment in Bitcoin, so clearly I am talking my own position. But I have invested precisely what I am prepared to lose 100% of. That is how risky I think it is. I do not normally go around making investments thinking I might lose 100%. I only do so when I think I have a chance of making many multiples of that.
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That fonestar sentiment index is getting unusually high though.
So that's why Goldman et. al. been mining it?
Is this a good or a bad thing?
I'm too old for crapshoots.
It's both, because of its evolutionary nature.
ZH fix your strikethru CSS please.
Goldman Sachs notes, nothing beat Bitcoin in 2013...
BULLSHIT..
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FGCCSAQ027S
Not even close..
Now that looks sustainable.
pods
It's important that you understand that bitcoin saw a 100x increase in 2013 alone. Now, the website you just referenced shows a mere 8x increase since 2010.
Or, in your words...
"Not even close.."
"It's important that you understand that bitcoin saw a 100x increase in 2013 alone"
It's equally important that you understand that 2013 didn't end mid-Dec. If you call 2013 a 365 day year ending at midnight Dec 31 like most other people, then you're no longer talking about a 100X but a 45X.
It might be inconvenient to deny yourself the luxury of cherrypicking time frames, but it is more honest. YOY performance doesn't have the proviso: "if you got in and out at the right times".
Oh, volatilty? Then you per the cherrypicking you might call it one of the worst performers of 2013 plummeting from $1200 to $400 (and to much less during a flash crash)
http://i.imgur.com/PYoMKUa.jpg
and here Goldman chimes in...
http://www.coindesk.com/goldman-sachs-bitcoin-isnt-currency-underlying-t...
"...as governments need to control the money supply."
....
“But it is wrong to think that people would be better off if we lived in a world in which the government did not control the money supply. Control over the money supply is an extremely valuable attribute of government that allows it to navigate and minimize or avoid economic problems like recessions or, maybe, asset bubbles.”
“But it is wrong to think that people would be better off if we lived in a world in which the government did not control the money supply. Control over the money supply is an extremely valuable attribute of government that allows it to navigate and minimize or avoid economic problems like recessions or, maybe, asset bubbles.”
Lol this should be posted under Wednesday humour, I would trust mathmatics any day over politicans and bankers.
And silver... is where it was 4 years ago.
Back up the truck, right?
If you're looking at the price of PMs, you're probably in it for the wrong reasons.
Then again, I bought the bulk of my silver in '95, so...yeah. I'm sitting pretty in that regard. The only thing I would say is, I don't much care about the price.
It's insurance. Nothing more, nothing less.
Does " risk adjusted " include
hard drive failure?
Power loss?
Massive Hacking attacks?
....
Don't forget boating accidents and Bitcoins being lost on 777 airliners...oppps sorry I was thinking of German gold again
One has control over whether one flys or "boats." Control over the power grid, the various Internet gateways et al, not so much... and it's this reasoning why I don't see the future as being so bright (majority of humans on the planet will NEVER be able to do bitcoin/digital).
> majority of humans on the planet will NEVER be able to do bitcoin/digital
Really? If that's the case, then apparently Kenya won't be doing 31% of their transactions digitally via mobile devices last year... oops!
http://qz.com/57504/31-of-kenyas-gdp-is-spent-through-mobile-phones/
Perhaps you should reconsider. If Kenya can do it, anyone can.
But Kenya is not a member of The Flat Earth Society like so many ZH posters.
Something looks wrong with this ratio
Risk Adjusted Return = Total Return / Realized Volatility
If I just tweek the denominator a bit, that's it
Risk Adjusted Return =
Total Return / We just Realized that your bitcoins have disappeared, sorry
550,000 people got that message.......550,000 people got robbed fully. and bit fraud did it to them.
550,000 people got that message.......550,000 people got robbed fully. and bit fraud did it to them.
Risk adjusted return of S&P 500 was 3.1% last year?
Me thinks risk adjusted returns are nothing but useless math.
Also: were these returns calculated by annuity salespeople?
Bitcoin Troll: Bitcoin is really risky you lose all your mone yand its volatile and can be hacked.
Bitcoin Investor: Have you ever used Bitcoin or know anything about it?
Bitcoin Troll: Yeah its the internet money stuff innit.
The GS article is actually pretty well done. I believe that they've got the right view of it, and that's that its big plus lies in transaction processing. "transaction processing" is NOT an "investment" (unless you're going to invest in the company/companies who are going to roll it all out big-time.
TPTB ain't going to allow instabilities, willingly that is. So, as GS notes in the article, there most certainly will be extra security layers, which WILL increase transaction costs: how much cannot really be known, though the likelihood of costs not increasing is likely of a very small probability. Now that we're in clear decline globally I'd have to wonder whether there's much room for adding a lot of risk (introducing another processing system).
And this key point:
but understand, once the early adopters cash out there is still only going to be a finite amount of bitcoins. Just about half way there and more so since many have been 'lost' (non accessible)
People need to focus on all the other facets of what the blockchain and its installed server network is. Those are part of its intrinsic value. The low brains here can only think one thing at a time (hence dems/repubs and their sheeple talking points)
and you dont have to speculate on bitcoin value to make money.. you can provide services etc in this new ecosystem
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2014/03/11/bitcoin-taxes/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+fortunefinance+(Fortune+Finance:+Hedge+Funds,+Markets,+Mergers+&+Acquisitions,+Private+Equity,+Venture+Capital,+Wall+Street
And from this article is a paper that explains how transactions could be traced:
http://cseweb.ucsd.edu/~smeiklejohn/files/imc13.pdf
Source : Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research ???
Maybe time to buy a few more coins after all.
550,000 people got robbed by this bit theive -business-. fornestar says "they can go to hell"
Oh yes it was.
We love you Bitcoin.
Bitcoins? Yeah, I gottem!
LMAO!
ZH is a shameless bitcoin pumper.
fonestar is a shameless Bitcoin plumper.
"Risk-adjusted". I spit soda out of my nose when I read that.
Do my bitcoins still exist when the computers shut down and the power goes out one last time? No? Then my store of wealth will continue to be gold.
I'm sure I can still lose my gold, but somebody has to come take it from me by force. When some nerd can silently, quickly and completely walk off with half-a-billion dollars in virtual currency while they sit on the couch playing video games I'll never be a buyer.
If you live in a country with no power you will need to lug that gold to somewhere more civilized. Then you may wish you had bitcoin, and could just carry all your wealth merely by memorzing the password.
If you live in a country with no power you will need to lug that gold to somewhere more civilized. Then you may wish you had bitcoin, and could just carry all your wealth merely by memorzing the password.
If there is no power what are you going to enter your passward into?
Smartphone , tablet , laptop ? Erm - Dog's anus ? What else could a password be entered into ?
Your bitcoins will still exist as data. As soon as power is restored or you charge your smartphone or laptop your bitcoins will be transferrable , just like using PayPal or online banking.
Has anyone else noticed that a lot more listings on Kijiji and Craigslist are accepting Bitcoin as payment? I don't see anyone accepting gold as payment for their goods. I'm not saying that gold is bad. Never will that be the case. Rather, those listings are proving where Bitcoin excels: an easy, secure, verifiable exchange of monetary value. Not everyone has an electronic gold content tester. I guess we should though...;-)
Why would anyone spend bitcoin today? That's what I don't get. If it becomes what the bitbulls think it will become, todays prices will be pennies on the dollar. If you hold on to your stake you are holding a fairly fixed % of the world's future trade medium. That's also why it will ultimately not be allowed to exist.
My understanding of Bitcoin is that it's not a growth item. Rather it's a tool to efficiently, and openly exchange value. Go back 4000 years in time and assume you're a cow rancher. Someone approaches you with the intent to purchase 5 cows from you. They could pay you in kind with 5 cows, but that would just be stupid. So, they offer to pay you with a shiny piece of yellow metal, and between the two of you, you determine the weight of gold you want for the 5 cows. You now want to pay someone to dig a well for you, so you draw terms with payment for labour in gold. To me. the gold has no long term value; rather it is used as an easy payment system.
People will spend their bitcoins when the price goes to when they can no longer stand up straight. Everybody has their price.
becomes what? a 12" dildo in your butt? ok, if you say so.
Meh, if I spend BTC I immediatly buy some back with fiat so my personal stack doesn't shrink.
550,000 people got robbed fully and that missing -500 million- money is being ignored by this false report.
"550,000 people got robbed"
Yes but they were really stupid people. Morons, idiots, they just don't get it.
I'm really smart so this could never happen to me.
As in you don't own any bitcoin to get stolen ?
WE LOVE YOU BITCOIN, THANK YOU SATOSHI
I thought the risk-adjusted value was zero USD.
Bitcoin , Bit-chez ........
Id prefer to buy encapsulated turds of the famous rather than bitcoin.
Both are limited editions.
Bitcon doesnt belong on a list of investments, no more than beanie babies or hula hoops did.
Lets face it, gay things are very popular, see Broadway and The Villiage People.
Now add Bitcoin to the long list.
Bitcoin.................invented to make Gold look good.
Hark - the sound of Sour Grapes.