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Is It A Bubble Yet?
Yesterday we highlighted the dot-com-esque surge in earnings-less IPOs in the last few months. Today we point out two more Yellen-ignoring bubble-implying charts that must surely be ignored by the cognoscenti of all-knowing stock market gurus.
Via Pater Tenebrarum of Acting-Man blog,
Leveraged Loans, Penny Stocks and Profitless IPOs
Sentimentrader has posted a few updates recently that show that financial froth is quite out of bounds by now. For instance, the share of IPOs of money losing companies over the past six months has soared back to the highs last seen at the top of the technology mania in 2000. A full 74% of all IPOs issued over the past half year were in companies that are making losses. The securities of such companies bereft of income of course all tend to soar right after they hit the market.
In another update, it was pointed out that the value of trading in penny stocks has soared to a multi-year high:
Penny stock trading soars - click to enlarge.
Admittedly, a similar spike in 2013 subsided quickly and didn't turn out to mean anything, but since then there have been several intermittent spikes, and their frequency has clearly increased. At some point it will mean something (just because something has not had meant much so far does not mean it never will).
However, the soaring issuance of leveraged loans really takes the cake. This is a chart to make even hardened bubble-heads dizzy. It is especially noteworthy how the current surge compares to the surge in 2007, shortly before the last bubble peaked. Nothing remotely comparable has ever been seen before. It is a mirror image of record junk bond issuance and the mania for high yielding debt in general (whereby 'high yielding' these days actually means 'not yielding very much').
Leveraged loan issuance goes bananas – click to enlarge.
So we ask again: Is it a bubble yet? Perhaps Ms. Yellen knows.
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This is a bit worrisome: pic.twitter.com/aa5KkAyFFz
I agree with you and the rest of the comments re that chart. Looks like a roller coaster with timed platforms where the cars pause before plunging downward.
Never go Full Retard.
So, where can I get CDS on leveraged loans for pennies on the dollar?
Too late! Trouble is the complete retards have no clue what full retard is cause that's normal for them.
I see Fonerats has registered his objection to my disparaging remark about his people.
When everyone's retarded the retard is the one who's normal.
When everyone's retarded the normal one is who's retarded
Fixed it..
That's Mr BenYellin to you!
With emphasis on the Mr. I liked Yellen better when she was a woman.
It's going to be 1996 this time ;)
GUNDLACH: NYSE margin debt is in 'the scary zone' http://read.bi/1idIEZM
it's different this time!
Is Biz picking up before the "Oh Crap"?
National security, now spread your legs and BTFATH's...
OMFG.
Bubble...? How about a Hindenburg sized blimp....
When stocks like PLUG (at $700m market cap now hardly even a penny stock) are trading more than their market cap every day and swinging by 20%-50% intraday, do you even need to ask?
This is the mother of all bubbles, the bubble to end all bubbles, the supernova. And after the supernova comes the black hole.
Well put gj, and I believe the blow off spike, just before the Wile E Coyote moment will be jaw-dropping. But I'm too chicken (smart?) to play ... just busy preparing and stacking.
Sounds bullish, ramp-up the algos JPM (FED)...
It's not a bubble until old Yeller says it's a bubble. Which will come shortly after it pops. Followed up by the statement.... 'nobody could have seen that coming".
Apparenly bubbles are sneaky bastards to the Fed and most economists. Even as the crowd points and screams, the 'experts' insist that there is nothing to see here and move along.
That's why they are the experts and we are the crowd. Those who can,do; and those who can't teach.... and all that jazz. The fed and their cronies are always trying to teach us why we are wrong.
Shortly as shortly aftef she retires? That's what I thought
its all just a giant game of musical chairs. everyone knows its fucked. just waiting for the music to stop.
He who panics first,panics best.
Someones nerve is going to go.
Lol remain calm, keep your arms, legs and wallet inside the shuttle, we'll be passing the moon shortly
If they say its a bubble, then no.
If they deny its a bubble, then yes.
So, we can conclude:
No = Yes
Yes = No
Get it?
An Indian yes is accompanied by shaking the head side to side.A no ,head up and
down.We are all Indians now.
true indeed, thats why we need moar people to BTFATH (buy the fucking all time high)
Yes and no.
clearly silver at 21.25 is the biggest bubble out there.
Yeah, not worth more than a buck or two. In fact, it should be free.
you can't be emotional about this stuff. it is what it is. the run from $19 to $21 just puts it at nosebleed levels and a correction back to the $18 level is to be expected. Again you have to separate emotion from it all.
I hate you silver! You piece of shit! what's wrong with you!!!!
sorry about that.
Not emotional at all. It's ridiculously undervalued. I don't trade it, so who gives a shit about short term noise? There's nothing nosebleed about this whatsoever.
dude i've seen more than a few people on this site have to cough up their silver to pay the bills the last few years. that short term noise is turning out to be tinnitus.
What sort of meaningless comment is that? If people need to cash in some precious metals holdings, well, that's what they are there for. Sadly, their income levels or life expenses required them to spend down savings. Why post something as non-sequitor as that?
As for Dr. Zvengali, the best you can do is make fun of the silliest of cheerleaders?
The meaningless comment was the one referring to short term noise. No offense but that type of comment is getting ridiculous.
Everyone is in their own situation. A lot of people bought PM's for protection and many people are getting in worse financial shape by the day. Short term noise to one person is deep shit for another who has to sell the insurance that they most likely bought at a lot higher levels, potentially right before they will need that insurance the most.
Yes Thamnosma, that is the best I can do. Life is too short to take this shit too seriously.
WTF are you talking about!!!!!!!!! ( exclamation point x 10 to you)? You have no freaking clue do you!!!!!!!!? Don't you bleeping know that silver is being depressed and it's going to $100 because the manipulators are keeping it down? Damn... wtf is wrong with you? Get a freaking clue!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Will you? ;->
I am just replying to lock in explamation.
I have no clue what you are talking about :)
DOH! well played sir.
But it looks so shiny and pretty when I polish it.
Edit: You both got yelled at....you're in trouble now.
Please, no PM porn here. Too many girls.
I love your mid-afternoon tirades. Have you checked to see if your blood sugar is dipping?
Yes it's a bubble, but who cares? Life in the bubble is way better then life in an indeterminate free fall that ends with an abrupt halt in a strange land. But what do I know? I just excited Janet Yellen is still single!
Where's that goddamn plane?
The plane has only been missing for 5 days. That's short term noise.
Same place as Ft. Knox gold?
New particle beam weapon worked!
I recently saw a building in newyork collapse.
This headline nails the bubble (remember 2000)
"
Krispy Kreme's about to move bigThat's Cramer, Right?
Holy shit on the loan graph. That's going to be HILARIOUS when it pops.
So...being super, duper leveraged in penny stocks while buying IPOs in non revenue companies is a bad thingy? But my bank pays .000001 on CDs now! What is a yield whore to do?
A product I spent a week on sold 275k units for my parent company in Japan in the last six months netting them $6.5 million profit. I would IPO myself but it looks like making money isn't worth anything today.
I should figure out how to lose my company $500 million so we can IPO in the $5 billion range. If we can lose $500 million just think how successful we can be.
You draw attention to a very pertinent point in regards to this IPO business. Is this trickle down economics at it's best? And/or malinvestment on the grandest of scales? I'd bet the boys on Wall Street have an idea...
The confiscation/cost shifting complex operates by its own rules. Are capital markets in the subsidized category or have they essentially folded into the complex?
On the one hand ZeroHeroes say it's all a sham, manipulated, there are no markets. Then they use old metrics to claim imminent collapse.
I'm not going to pretend I can predict how far they will go to maintain this confiscatory format. But it's global and is sufficiently convoluted to provide the masses with plausible denial. Pretty tempting recipe but there is the problem of instability of weaker players.
When Marc Faber goes long, I'll short
He has been long. real investors don't trade from the short side because its an idiotic proposition what with the upward bias of the market vs risk free rates, log-normal distribution and infinite upside. That is not to mention the fact that the FED will not allow the "market" do go down over a few percent.
For example, you could have sold short Facebook at 40 saying it was over valued, then maybe you sold more at 50 because if 40 was over valued 50 is a gift from the gods. Well now its trading over 70 on its way to 100 by the end of the year so what are you gonna do as it trades through 100 later this year??
You are correct, I should have phrased it differently, when he starts parroting another tune (not what he is doing) then I'll short.
Had an aunt I hadn't seen in years tell me over the weekend during lunch that she started investing in penny medical marijuana stocks, and that we should set up a family "investment club." Reminded me why I hadn't seen her in years.
As Yellen says, it's not a bubble. It's not a bubble, because it is beyond a bubble.