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What Happened To Flight 370? An Analysis Of What Is Known

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog,

UPDATE: As expected (see my analysis of ocean currents and drift-time below), the purported debris was a false lead. The revelation that the automated ACARS was still sending data on the Rolls Royce engines is not surprising given what else is known, nor is the Malaysian claim that the data is false. Engine data indicates Malaysian plane flew four hours after disappearing
 

The story gets curiouser and curiouser--but so far every piece of new data conforms to my basic analysis of the known facts.

Like many other people, I am following the story of what happened to Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 with keen interest. Much of what we've been told doesn't add up, deepening the mystery.

It seems to me that we can already draw a number of conclusions from the known data by pursuing a logic-based analysis of what is possible and what can be excluded as illogical.

Let's start with what is known:

1. The Malaysian authorities have been evasive to the point of misdirection, in other words, they've hidden the facts to serve an undisclosed agenda.
What is the agenda driving their evasion? What is known is that Malaysian security is obviously lax. This fact has caused Malaysian authorities to lose face, i.e. be humiliated on the global stage. Malaysia is an Asian nation, and maintaining face in Asia is of critical importance. We can conclude that one reason the Malaysian authorities are dissembling is to hide their gross incompetence.

It is also suspected that Malaysia is a safe haven for potentially dangerous Islamic groups. (Follow the threads from Pakistan's secret nuclear proliferation program to Malaysia for documentation of this possibility.) The Malaysian government may have an informal quid pro quo along these lines: you are welcome to set up shop as long as you don't cause any trouble here or do anything to cause Malaysia to lose face.

This provides another logical source of Malaysian evasion: if there is indeed a terrorist connection to the loss of the aircraft, this would focus the global spotlight on Malaysian tolerance of potentially dangerous groups.

That the Malaysian military was unable to effectively monitor the aircraft or coordinate with civilian air traffic control (ATC) also suggests incompetence at the most sensitive levels. Revealing this would also cause a loss of face.

Summary: Malaysian authorities have not been truthful or timely in their reporting. The logical conclusion is that they're hiding data to protect national pride and the true state of their abysmal security.

2. Additional information is available but is not being shared with the public. To take one example, the Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS) on Flight 370 was functioning and automatically sent data on four critical systems, including the engines. This data has not been released by Malaysian Airlines.

It also appears that the pilot of another 777 airliner heading to Japan contacted the pilot in Flight 370 and reported the transmission was garbled.

Even with the transponder off, the aircraft would appear on primary (military) radar. The Malaysian military tracked Flight 370 but is dissembling. Clearly the authorities are not revealing the full extent of what is known.

3. Satellite imagery did not detect a high-altitude explosion. This excludes all scenarios in which the aircraft crashes into another plane, explodes in mid-air, etc.

4. Flight 370 changed course and altitude, and then maintained the new bearing for hundreds of miles and an additional hour of flight after losing contact with ATC (air traffic control). This limits scenarios in which decompression causes everyone on board to lose consciousness or a catastrophic electrical fire incapacitating the flight deck to an emergency that enabled the pilots to set a new course before losing consciousness or control of the aircraft.

5. The Malaysian military reported Flight 370's altitude as 29,500 feet. This conflicts with eyewitness accounts from fishermen reporting a large aircraft at a much lower altitude around 1,000 meters (3,000 feet). If the radar altitude is correct, this suggests the aircraft was not experiencing decompression, as the pilots would descend as an emergency response to decompression. If the fishermen's report is accurate, then decompression would not be an issue.

6. Mobile phone data suggests the passengers' phones were still functioning after the aircraft lost contact with air traffic control (ATC) and the transponder was turned off/failed.

7. Releasing data from the U.S. intelligence space-based network would reveal U.S. capabilities. The Strait of Malacca is a key shipping lanes chokepoint, and is thus of strategic interest to the U.S. and other nations with space-based assets. U.S. authorities have already revealed that U.S. coverage of the area is "thorough."

This confirms that U.S. communications monitoring and space-based assets cover the seas around the Strait of Malacca. Given what is known about these monitoring and space-based assets, it is likely that the U.S. intelligence agencies have additional data but are not revealing them, as this would provide direct evidence of U.S. capabilities.

We can surmise that the U.S. maintains thermal imaging capabilities that can detect more than large explosions. We can also surmise that the communications monitoring networks picked up any signals from the aircraft or related to the aircraft.

That the head of the C.I.A. publicly professed ignorance is interesting. What course of action would one pursue if one wanted to keep U.S. capabilities secret? Publicly proclaim ignorance.

This is not to suggest that the U.S. "knows where flight 370 is;" it is simply to note that this is not "open ocean" comparable to the mid-Atlantic where Air France Flight 447 went down five years ago. This is a strategic chokepoint of great interest to the U.S., and therefore it is likely that U.S. networks and space-based assets collected data that would either exclude certain possibilities or make other possibilities more likely.

What can we logically conclude from the most reliable and trustworthy data available?

1. The pilots were conscious when they turned off the transponder (or the transponder failed) around 1:30 a.m. and when they changed course soon after.The aircraft was under the control of the pilots long enough for them to set a new course.

2. The aircraft flew an additional hour or more on the new westward course at cruising altitude.

3. No distress signal was sent during this 1+ hour flight after whatever event caused the the pilots to change course.

If we put these together, we can establish a number of logical parameters around each plausible scenario, where plausible scenario means a situation based on previous losses of commercial aircraft.

1. Pilot suicide. If the pilot had decided to commit suicide by crashing the plane, why not ditch the aircraft in the South China Sea? Why change course and fly for another hour?

Alternatively, the Malaysian military's reports are completely false and they were tracking an unknown aircraft near Pulau Perak at 2:15 a.m. (previously reported as 2:40 a.m.)

How many unidentified large aircraft are flying around Pulau Perak at 2:15 a.m. on a typical night? The possibility that the radar signal was not Flight 370 seems remote.

2. Mechanical failure that caused decompression or an electrical fire that incapacitated the flight deck. If such an emergency occurred, it enabled the pilots to change course and altitude.

Assuming a decompression event, we could expect the pilots to descend rapidly. If Flight 370 was indeed at 29,500 feet at 2:15 a.m., that suggests the aircraft was still capable of flight at cruising altitude. So either the pilots were still flying the aircraft or the decompression event enabled them to change course and set the autopilot before losing consciousness.

If the aircraft was being flown by autopilot, it could have flown for many more hours, given its fuel load, which raises the question: if the pilots were unconscious at 2:15 a.m., why did the aircraft suddenly crash 10 minutes later? Or did the aircraft simply leave the airspace covered by the Malaysian military?

If an emergency had crippled the aircraft's electrical system, it's unlikely the plane could have continued flying at cruising altitude for an additional hour. If a catastrophic electrical fire crippled the flight deck, how could the plane continue flying at cruising altitude for another hour, given that the battery backup would last at best 30 minutes?

In other words, the additional hour of flight time on a new course does not logically align with an emergency decompression or fire that led to the flight deck and pilots being incapacitated. A decompression event would have led to either A. a rapid controlled descent or B. the pilots unconscious/unable to take control and the autopilot flying the aircraft on the new course for many hours.

Alternatively, a catastrophic electrical fire would have either brought the aircraft down within minutes of the event or at best provided 30 minutes on emergency battery power. Neither jibes with an additional hour of flight at cruising altitude.

This leads to the conclusion that the aircraft was still being flown by the pilots, i.e. conscious decisions were being made by either the pilots or someone who had seized control of the flight deck.

If a mechanical emergency had crippled the aircraft, it seems unlikely that the pilots could change course and altitude but not be able to send a distress signal. If the pilots had lost consciousness but the rest of the plane's systems were nominal, the autopilot would have continued flying the aircraft until the fuel ran out, many hours beyond 2:15 a.m.

That suggests there was conscious control of the aircraft and that those in charge made a decision sometime after 2:15 a.m. that led to the loss of the aircraft. This scenario strongly suggests human action or error as the operative emergency rather than mechanical failure.

Either that, or some key data that has been released as fact is actually false.

Late breaking news: if the satellite images released by China (taken one day after Flight 370 went missing) are in fact photos of wreckage, then the Malaysian military was obviously not tracking Flight 370 to the west an hour later.

The blurry photo does not reveal much, but several features are noteworthy:

1. The three pieces are very large, which means they must be intact sections of the wings or fuselage. It is unlikely these would still be floating hours after a crash. We might also wonder, what sort of impact would create three large pieces rather than a debris field?

2. The three pieces are close together. Unless the aircraft landed intact in the water and sank in one piece, there would likely be a field of much smaller floating debris.

3. What else could this be? The large size of the pieces is certainly consistent with the scale of a 777.

4. Why did China withhold the imagery for three days? Did their own search ships reach the coordinates identified by the satellite?

5. The ocean currents and the location of the presumed debris do not compute. Ocean currents in the area are 2 kilometers/hour. Presumed debris is 141 miles from last known position This doesn't compute: the satellite image was taken 11 am Sunday 33 hours after MH370 presumably crashed; debris would only drift 33 hr X 2 KM=66 KM or about 40 miles from the last known position of HM370. Debris was 140 miles to the east--100 miles beyond what's possible in terms of debris drifting with currents from the presumed crash site.

In summary, these images open additional questions. There is no substitute for actually finding the aircraft or debris.

MH370: Satellite images show possible crash debris in South China sea

Malaysian military now reveals it tracked MH370 to the Malacca strait

Radar Blips Baffle Officials in Malaysian Jet Inquiry

The Mystery of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370

Malaysian plane sent out engine data before vanishing

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Thu, 03/13/2014 - 13:46 | 4543880 Itchy and Scratchy
Itchy and Scratchy's picture

At least the luggage arrived on time!

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 13:49 | 4543892 Beard of Zeus
Beard of Zeus's picture

Weird.

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 13:50 | 4543902 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

Heads up: this is possibily the event in which "First Contact" / "Full disclosure" is revealed.

I am Chumbawamba.

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 13:56 | 4543934 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

OT but Japan just had a decent sized earthquake. Aliens?

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 13:59 | 4543956 TheTmfreak
TheTmfreak's picture

So CHS is some sort of expert on lost flights?

*Yawn*.... Am I the only person who doesn't give a fuck? I'm pretty sure more people were murdered with machetes in Congo or the Sudan yesterday than on this flight.

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 14:01 | 4543971 stacking12321
stacking12321's picture

here is what happened to flight 370:

http://joecruzmn.files.wordpress.com/2014/03/airplane.jpg

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 14:03 | 4543982 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

the size/scale is a bit off, but yes that is correct.

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 14:08 | 4544013 Levadiakos
Levadiakos's picture

It will show up again as someone's weapon. Mark my words.

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 14:14 | 4544045 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

Most plausible scenario thus far:  "[working] current theory is that the plane was hijacked but that the pilot flew it out into the ocean rather than to the specified destination."

From link below, pilots discussing Flight 370.

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 14:31 | 4544146 0b1knob
0b1knob's picture

Semiconductor firm's entire engineering R and D staff was on the flight.   20 people.

http://www.electronista.com/articles/14/03/10/employees.en.route.to.improve.efficiency.cost.effectiveness.of.manufacturing/

Coincidence?

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 14:37 | 4544187 Cap Matifou
Cap Matifou's picture

Four days after the missing flight MH370 a patent is approved by the Patent Office. There were initially 5 patent right holders: 4 Chinese engineers plus their employer, the Rotschild owned Freescale Semiconductor of Austin TX.

After the plane went down with the Chinese folks, sole survivor and patent owner is the firm itself.
http://archive.4plebs.org/pol/thread/27628741/

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 14:58 | 4544299 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

Implantable chips, mark of the Beast, FTW!

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 15:32 | 4544488 0b1knob
0b1knob's picture

"curiuoser and curiouser!" Go ask Alice?

So four of the smartest guys on earth, owners of incredibly valuable patents, just disappear?   Wonder if the flight landed some place, the valuable people were removed for a life of living-dead techno  slavery.   And the rest get a bullet in the head.

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 16:04 | 4544658 Thought Processor
Thought Processor's picture

 

 

Motive.   But still leaves a lot of explaining.   This looks like an intelligence op of some sort with the plane romote piloted to somewhere.

Those 20 are likely the reason though.

They are being held on an island somewhere until...........

 

I think something wicked this way comes.

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 19:55 | 4545763 The Alarmist
The Alarmist's picture

Clearly space aliens.

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 14:38 | 4544188 superflex
superflex's picture

A Harvey Weinstein production.

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 14:33 | 4544160 max2205
max2205's picture

Lot of lying going on

 

Last time I trusted a Malaysian he stole my rental car....gezzzz

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 14:34 | 4544172 bob resurrected
bob resurrected's picture

Agreed. Flew south over the Indian Ocean? Turned north and landed off the grid somewhere in Iran? Repainted and stashed for future use as a dirty bomb? Who else would have unaccounted for and undeterminable HEU?

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 15:10 | 4544373 Oldballplayer
Oldballplayer's picture

Isreal, Nork, South Africa, India, Pakistan....the list is almost endless.

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 14:09 | 4544016 Keyser
Keyser's picture

We'll just have to wait 30 years before they give the plane back... 

 

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 14:31 | 4544147 McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

Why do I keep making a weird mountain shape with my mashed potatoes?! This means something...

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 14:55 | 4544282 superflex
superflex's picture

Tear out some shrubs and throw them through the bathroom window.

Then you'll have your answer.

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 14:23 | 4544097 MedTechEntrepreneur
MedTechEntrepreneur's picture

How much Gold was in the cargo hold?

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 14:03 | 4543980 pods
pods's picture

Well the MSM (local radio) was playing up the Iranians on the plane, that is for sure.

If it was just a crash, no doubt they might just try and squeeze a bit of terrorism juice out of it.

pods

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 14:33 | 4544166 johnQpublic
johnQpublic's picture

there is already eople analyzing nd saying those photos were photoshopped

check youtube

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 14:03 | 4543989 redpill
redpill's picture

 

Does anyone know if the Boeing avionics respond automatically to explosive decompression by reducing altitude.  If the pilots got sucked out and the passengers asphyxiated before the plane got to a breathable altitude, a slowly burning fire or depleted fuel supply could have resulted in a crash after being a 'zombie plane' for a few hours.

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 17:08 | 4544972 Poor Grogman
Poor Grogman's picture

They don't.

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 14:17 | 4544061 johnQpublic
johnQpublic's picture

big aircraft like this occasionally are stolen

my guess: this sucker is on the ground covered in camo

will be sold to an african nation in a year or less

or: frescale semicoductor passengers were 'needed' for some task and hd to be appropriated

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 14:28 | 4544130 Sofa King Confused
Sofa King Confused's picture

A rumor going around says it was stolen and landed in the Cocos islands which has a large enough landing strip for a 777.

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 14:31 | 4544148 johnQpublic
johnQpublic's picture

i was just at the freescale website

they make some interesting big brother smart cities shit

also stff to watch monitor and locate automobiles, and anything wireles, net connected or wifi enabled

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 15:00 | 4544311 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

What, you mean like people with imbeddable chips?

Most people are already being tracked via their cell/smart phone.

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 16:17 | 4544716 Thought Processor
Thought Processor's picture

 

 

Oh snap!

 

Hadn't thought about that.  You don't think freescale makes imbeddable chips do you..........

 

(Don't wait for the answer.  You already know they do)

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 16:53 | 4544885 dizzyfingers
dizzyfingers's picture

"You don't think freescale makes imbeddable chips do you"

I've read that they do make them.

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 15:09 | 4544362 Thought Processor
Thought Processor's picture

 

 

Hmmm.   Lot's of stuff for DOD.   Wonder what they have that is classified.  Probably a lot.

 

All of this points to an interesting direction.  Wonder what the purpose of the China trip was?

 

I think someone 'intervened' in this flight for a reason.

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 21:20 | 4546038 Bunders
Bunders's picture

Freescale have design and manufacturing facilities in China.

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 15:41 | 4544537 vato poco
vato poco's picture

OK, I'll be the one to ask the obvious stupid questions. A Boeing 777 costs around $250MM. A quarter-*billion* dolla airplane, made out of (est) 100,000+ parts. Since I'm sure that, as noted above, "big aircraft like this are occasionally stolen", are we supposed to believe that nobody thought to install an 'always on' LoJack on this sucker?

Also, in re US/China sat coverage of the area, it's been pretty well universally (albeit unofficially) known that satcams have been good enough to *read license plates from space* since at least the early '60's. Why the fuck are the recon agencies still playing like it's 1934 when it comes to their capabilities?

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 16:01 | 4544641 Confused
Confused's picture

Listen, I don't know shit about airplanes. But I know this: If I can get WIFI on a fucking plane, WHILE it is in the air, during my flight, someone knows where the mother fucker is. 

 

Fact. 

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 20:42 | 4545897 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

State OPSec rule #3: Never allow your adversary to gain accurate knowledge of your capabilities.

State OPSec rule #6: Everybody is a potential adversary.

What good is all this data collection, if its application violates the rules?

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 14:55 | 4544280 sgt_doom
sgt_doom's picture

Outstanding recap and summary, but let's look at several other events not mentioned, or mentioned fully.

First, that misleading item from China about the debris near the airliner's filed flight plan --- Chinese officials are still paid off by the Triads, you know?

Second, the aircraft commander, or chief pilot, had an honest-to-the-gods flight simulator in his home which he practised on continuously the last some months (we ain't talking Microsoft Flight Simulator here, dudes!).

Third, activity around the KL airport prior to the flight of 370, and increased activity at the Chinese facilities involved with forced organ harvesting, suggest this might be a Triad operation (they are the largest criminal organization in existence).

Suggesting the plane was a heist (hopefully by a lone operator --- the pilot or pilots --- as if a Triad operation the fate of the passengers is most negative, but with lone operators a miracle may occur and we might possibly see those pax again).

Something mighty valuable must have been aboard that airliner.

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 13:57 | 4543950 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

I was just going to say IT'S A MASSIVE ALIEN ABDUCTION! TO SAVE MANKIND FROM THE GLOBAL WAR STARTING NOW!

Or it could have been hit by a meteroroid!

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 15:29 | 4544434 ClassicalLib17
ClassicalLib17's picture

Marshall Applewhite, Mr. Marshall Applewhite, please pick up the white courtesy telephone.

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 13:51 | 4543911 Yes We Can. But...
Yes We Can. But Lets Not.'s picture

Here you can read the speculations of professional pilots on Flight 370:

http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/535538-malaysian-airlines-mh370-conta...

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 14:19 | 4544070 Levadiakos
Levadiakos's picture

Rolls Royce, the engine manufacturer, pulls signals from operating 777 engines every 30 minutes and they say the plane flew on for 4 hours or 2200 nautical miles.

 

http://m.us.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702304914904579434653903086282...

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 14:36 | 4544184 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

Whoever pulled this off did a masterful job.

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 15:12 | 4544378 Thought Processor
Thought Processor's picture

 

 

If it was 'pulled off' it was done so by a certain western intelligence agency with extensive spec. ops. capabilities.

 

Cause you know they've had the technology to remote an airliner for, well since 9/11 at least.

 

 

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 20:51 | 4545934 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

NASA Controlled Impact Demo - 1984

From crash test dummies, to elaborate insurance fraud, to grand-theft airplane?

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 13:50 | 4543906 Beard of Zeus
Beard of Zeus's picture

The passengers are at a resort drinking G&Ts and taking selfies.

 

 

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 16:05 | 4544661 Confused
Confused's picture

The passengers (most) are pushing up daisy's, while the responsible someone is drinking G&Ts.

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 13:55 | 4543929 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

An extremely curious case.

Ideas for consideration, not worth much:

1)  Of course the CIA would not reveal its capabilities...

2)  I mentioned a couple of days ago about the lax Malaysian airport security re fake Iranian passports (which might have nothing to do with the loss of Flight 370), but would parallel what the author writes.

3)  Malaysia does harbor Muslim extremists, ask Thailand...

***

I wonder what really happened?  Maybe we will find out soon.

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 14:04 | 4543994 Thought Processor
Thought Processor's picture

 

 

This is turning into quite the 'who done it.'

 

My money is on the plane being remotely piloted to a remote island for some 'National Security' reason.

But then the question is: who's National Security?   And more over, why?

 

Also-  99% of 'Terrorism' is state sponsored in some manner.  So the 'Terrorism' idea immediately should lead to a complicit State being involved somehow.

 

Where is Columbo when you need him.

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