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Which European Countries Will Suffer The Most If Russia Turns Off The Gas

Tyler Durden's picture




 

With the Sunday Crimean referendum seemingly unstoppable now, its outcome certain, it is set to unleash a chain of events that is not entirely predictable but is at best, ominous, as it will involve the launch of trade, economic and financial sanctions against Russia (despite China's stern disapproval), which will lead to a "symmetric" response in kind by Moscow. And in a worst case escalation scenario, should game theory completely collapse and everyone starts defecting from a cooperative equilibrium state, the first thing to go will be European gas exports from Russia, anywhere from one day to indefinitely. So which European countries are most exposed to the whims of Gazprom? The following map from the WSJ, shows just how reliant on Russian gas exports most European countries are.

One wonders just how "stern" any sanctions these countries support and enforce against Russia will truly be. Then again, as the WSJ reports, Europe somehow believes that despite its massive reliance on Ukraine for energy, it can weather a storm:

Mr. Oettinger says Europe is now in a stronger position to withstand possible disruptions in supplies, thanks in part to a mild winter, more storage capacity and pipeline infrastructure that allows more gas to flow from west to east.

 

But he has also said that the EU should reach out to other gas exporters and build more terminals for liquefied natural gas, and that countries should also start exploratory work on shale gas.

 

"The Russians are now more dependent on our money than we are on their gas," said Mr. Wieczorkiewicz, adding that around half of Russia's revenues are derived from oil and gas sales. "The EU could also explore ties to Norway, Algeria and Qatar as alternative suppliers, increase the use of coal and import LNG."

 

But in the short term, others argue that the EU is short of options if it wants to use energy as a tool against Moscow. "Russia remains the largest exporter of gas to the EU; there's no way of [quickly] sourcing those amounts of gas elsewhere," said Simon Pirani of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.

 

"Europe has to ask itself how important is the economic relationship with Russia, which provides that cheap energy, and how important is the political protest that it wants to make" about Crimea, he said.

So who wins in the end: the provider of the commodity, or the buyer who pays with infinitely dilutable fiat, especially if any further escalation by the west against Russia will merely bring China and Russia together even closer. Somehow we think our money is on the KGB spy instead of the clueless and insolvent European bureaucrats.

 

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Thu, 03/13/2014 - 16:33 | 4544792 barliman
barliman's picture

 

Bottom line .... ALL of them

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 16:40 | 4544830 Thought Processor
Thought Processor's picture

 

 

Behold, the reset button is about to be pushed.

 

Hang on tight people.  Things are about to get hairy.

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 16:47 | 4544858 MeMadMax
MeMadMax's picture

Leftist europeons and their wishful, delusional thinking...

 

Next winter is gonna be a cluster fuck, thats for sure...

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 16:51 | 4544877 I am more equal...
I am more equal than others's picture

 

 

Want to see an economy collapse? 

Increase energy costs by 100%. 

All the printing in the world won't make a difference if that happens.

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 16:57 | 4544899 jbvtme
jbvtme's picture

off topic...kenny boy alive  https://www.startjoin.com/whereskennyboy

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 19:46 | 4545726 Surly Bear
Surly Bear's picture

Fix the problem: Not a single dollar to the Mid East, Russia, or China. Sorry, no, you cannot import those fucking iPhones....

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 17:02 | 4544924 Unknown User
Unknown User's picture

Russia already responded to this threat. They will do nothing because they export gas and import goods so sanctions will only hurt countries like Germany.

 

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 17:26 | 4545086 giggler321
giggler321's picture

This is all about their failed attempt in ME over Syria.  If they wanted a war it would of happened there as the USA and allies had their chance to start one and gave up when Putin turned it Nuclear.

Right now, it's pay backs as they know what ever happens, boots on the ground, spread the Russian's thin, make them pay.  It costs money for troops, it costs money for lost land due to votes in neighbouring countries, it costs Russia - That's what this is all this about.

This situation right now will not end in war even if Putin took Ukraine by force (it's not as if they ain't more than half Russian anyhow) all you would get in results is a lot of talk and a weaker Russia.  Putting bombs in Poland, Romainia, whereever will always be countered with S<make up your number> system (300,400,500) but importantly at a cost - a cost to Russia.

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 20:31 | 4545863 123dobryden
123dobryden's picture

i am almost enjoying this...

 

we should buid a huge huge arena for politicians of various cleptocrasies to fight each other barehand or medieval weapons

 

 

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 17:09 | 4544977 SDShack
SDShack's picture

Yep, $145/barrel oil did it in 2008. It is being engineered again. Rinse & Repeat

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 17:18 | 4545025 Seer
Seer's picture

Ever consider that it's been woefully underpriced for a long time and that they can no longer supress the real costs?  And if not now, one day for certain the affordability will be far less than today.

My theory is that there's a bit of a coordinated effort to ease it to what it'll eventually be: neither buyers or sellers will find the future friendly.  We're pretty much in global recession yet oil's still hoovering around $100: consumption is dropping; growth projections are all low- economies of scale in reverse is starting to kick in (margins increasingly under greater and greater pressure).

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 18:13 | 4545326 thestarl
thestarl's picture

Capex costs increasing 11% a year its a worry.

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 17:11 | 4544988 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

Playing with gas pipelines is the weak hand.  Simply withdraw 5.5 million barrels of day of OIL from the world market for a few days, and then slowly ramp back up in 1 million barrel increments, and watch both oil and gas prices spike along with profits and European wisdom (while all the consumption based economies and the banks that prop them up go into meltdown)... Force majeure in light of any sanctions is a great excuse to void any and all existing oil delivery contracts with EU States and renegotiate terms more appropriately.

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 17:23 | 4545056 Seer
Seer's picture

OPEC just announced a reduction in output targets.

And I'm sure that this isn't the only instance of over-optimism:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-13/gulf-keystone-falls-most-in-two...

As a percentage more income will be going toward energy.  It's pretty much like a drug addiction.  Discretionary income is becoming less.

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 19:23 | 4545630 logicalman
logicalman's picture

Your comment....

Leftist europeons and their wishful, delusional thinking

Add to that American Stupidity and Arrogance.

But really in both cases, we are not talking about the people of either region, but the criminal thugs in control.

Countries are just another 'divide and conquer' method.

Please engage brain before putting keyboard into gear.

 

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 16:53 | 4544882 reTARD
reTARD's picture

Exactly. That's why they created the EU, a grand collectivist union where everyone is their brother's keeper.

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 17:02 | 4544928 Dewey Cheatum Howe
Dewey Cheatum Howe's picture

But they will never be each other's brothers. And that is why too much integration and centralization fails at the end of the day. People define borders, borders don't define people. You can't shuffle them around fast enough because there isn't enough money or energy to sufficiently keep the stirring the mixer.

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 17:14 | 4545005 reTARD
reTARD's picture

Agreed. The same applies to forced diversity. Those people are the ones who are racist and who look at skin color.

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 18:57 | 4545517 25or6to4
25or6to4's picture

@Tard
Thank you. Diversity will end up in the same trash heap as communism and other failed ideologies hopefully sooner than latter.

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 19:26 | 4545642 logicalman
logicalman's picture

WHAT THE FUCK IS WRONG WITH DIVERSITY?????

The problem we really suffer from is the psychopaths vs decent human beings.

Everything else is just distractions that the psychopaths use against their enemy, HUMANITY.

Diversity enriches, it doesn't diminish.

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 20:18 | 4545818 reTARD
reTARD's picture

I'm for diversity too. More variety is good. But the keyword was "forced." That would be centrally planned and forced diversity to meet someone's quota of X percent people of various skin colors. Personally, I don't look at people for their skin color but only at their individuality, values and skills. Should I care if there was a Caucasian who happens to be an excellent cook of Chinese food? I'd be more concerned about the end product than the person who creates/delivers it.

And if some people don't want diversity, that's okay with me too. There is a difference between not wanting diversity and just plain being racist too. That's just preference.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 03:38 | 4546838 Mad_max
Mad_max's picture

It's Marxist Racism. Just as was Nazism.

They just replaced the Jewish hegemonic idea with the white male hegemonic conspiracy.

Hence the Multiculturism, white priviledge, quotas etc.

It's all depresingly inevitable, as Marxism always falls on a need to identify a hegemonic class on whom to lay the blame. Race is an easy on to pick. White male have lots of wealth, hence white males are the oppresors/ Jews.

 

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 17:25 | 4545079 Seer
Seer's picture

Regionalization.  Why NWO would never have worked: and that has been my position.

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 18:36 | 4545414 Researchtime
Researchtime's picture

Game theory thought - Ukraine

The problem about the Ukraine is that the protestors overthrew a democratically elected government who was making some desperate economic decisions with the EU purposely fomenting one side over the other.  Ironically, by not recognising a dominant Russian based group to have their democratic right, the West are contradicting themselves making us look less democratic over what we would consider, a relatively authoritarian state…  The problem is the two leaders; Obama on Europe's bidding, and Putin, have publicly placed themselves at situational cross roads whereby neither can back down, or be seen to give ground without serious reputation damage.  Putin has the most to lose initially, and arguably has been very restrained to date.  A man who has a diverse country, a relatively poor economy, can only play the (arguably strong suit) unified Russian Motherland angle - otherwise all is lost.  Putin is the perfect archaically player.  Obama's problem is twofold.  Firstly, the EU, in particular Germany, induced this game.  Despite distancing themselves initially, Obama allowed the US to make declarations it did not want to make nor can it realistically keep.  This plays into a second problem in that in recent years the US looks like losing its global hegemony (i.e. Pax America); that having a military complex at your disposal is quite useless unless you willing to use it.  Obama's indecisiveness and prevaricating to date has created a dangerous situation in a number places around the world where America has vested interests.  To maintain their illusion of invincibility, the game dictates that Obama maybe forced to overreact in this situation order to stablise other far more important geopolitical issues. There is no Nash equilibria in this situation, consequently, forward induction suggests that for lasting resolution one side has to be forced to back down publicly.  The problem for the West is that I think Putin has already pre-played the game and  set up the chess board before them.  The EU is now on the hook for billions of dollars of subsidies annually into perpetuity.  If not the Ukrainian population will increasingly become more poor, desperate and radicalise, which plays into Russia's hand.  This inevitability allows Russia to play the hardball waiting game to achieve their best outcome.  The EU on the other hand is pretty broke and cannot literally afford to financially support Ukraine without risking financial instability and the overall EU project.  Forward induction implies that the EU has to provoke a crisis to get Russian to the table to support the Ukrainian state economically whilst achieving their own political ends.  A contradiction in terms.  This is not going to end well. For a relatively innocuous country economically, this game of headmanship could have very large financial implications. 

 

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 06:48 | 4546949 Perfecthedge
Perfecthedge's picture

Remind me to never play chess against you.

Well analyzed (golf clapp).

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 16:34 | 4544796 naughtius maximus
naughtius maximus's picture

5.8% to 49.5% Not too good gradiation there

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 16:35 | 4544797 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Does one country shiver harder than another?

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 16:35 | 4544802 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 16:42 | 4544840 Rakshas
Rakshas's picture

I just threw up on my child ......... man a little warning please.....er .. are those real??

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 16:50 | 4544869 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

As you know, real is relative...

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 17:08 | 4544965 vic and blood
vic and blood's picture

LMAO!!

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 17:03 | 4544935 Black Forest
Black Forest's picture

Excellent. Thanks.

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 17:19 | 4545040 vic and blood
vic and blood's picture

Hilarious! Got to put that on my desktop.

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 19:32 | 4545664 logicalman
logicalman's picture

One of your very best!

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 16:37 | 4544810 inflatio_in_aeternum
inflatio_in_aeternum's picture

Time to short nat gas.

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 16:39 | 4544821 29.5 hours
29.5 hours's picture

 

 

Certain idiots in Congress are already speculating that the U.S., with all its fantastic increase in fracking reserves, could export surplus to Europe.

No dice. The U.S. still has an energy deficit, despite all propaganda.

"Despite a boom in U.S. energy production, average costs for heating a home with propane will likely be 54 percent higher for this winter (October 2013 through March 2014) than a year ago, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported
"

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 17:08 | 4544963 Dewey Cheatum Howe
Dewey Cheatum Howe's picture

Whether they can or can't is not the issue it is about making money and that money includes building infrastructure getting the ban undone is last move in the game barring a game changing find of reserves in European region. It is not just the US but other players like Canada that benefit. Shipping LNG gets Great Britain for starters from being reliant on Qatar LNG since that is their dominant market. They dominant even the Russians in that segment of the gas market in Western Europe.

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 16:40 | 4544829 ersatzteil
ersatzteil's picture

Seen this plot play out before; Sarkozy running around trying to broker peace and influence Putin during the 2008 South Ossetian War. 

*SPOILER ALERT* It ends with Putin holding onto whatever he takes. End credits, exit stage left...

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 16:46 | 4544852 H. Perowne
H. Perowne's picture

This is looking more and more like a trilogy to me.

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 17:43 | 4545195 d_senti
d_senti's picture

Holger Danske Vagner...the west could use a guardian about now...

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 16:40 | 4544832 FuzzyDunlop21
FuzzyDunlop21's picture

Does anyone really think spineless Obama will actually go through with it? And I know his supporters are clinically brain dead, but I cant even see them agreeing with his decision to help Ukraine. Hell, I bet the only time they've heard of Ukraine was from watching that show on Nickelodeon with the Aggro Crag.

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 16:45 | 4544839 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

If it does get shut off it will motivate the EU to topple Syria and let the pipeline the Saudis wanted get installed to refeed Europe. Side play would be the shipping angle for those investing in turmoil. ( assuming it happens). BDI might start running up if this scenario get worse....much less people start shooting at boats ( ala Libya).

For you boobie fans...
pic.twitter.com/SdSOd5Z99j

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 16:42 | 4544843 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

"The Russians are now more dependent on our money than we are on their gas"

So that's what we are calling the Euro now?......., money? Lol..... That's funny.

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 17:04 | 4544947 Perimetr
Perimetr's picture

"The Russians are now more dependent on our money than we are on their gas"

Soon the Russians will ask for *real* money, i.e. gold, in exchange for their gas and other commodities having intrinsic value.  

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 19:02 | 4545547 SimplePrinciple
SimplePrinciple's picture

That's okay.  Germany has thousands of tons of gold, uh, doesn't it?

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 19:03 | 4545556 ILLILLILLI
ILLILLILLI's picture

That might put some real pressure on the US to return the German gold...a nice side-benefit "fuck you" to the US.

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 17:52 | 4545245 August
August's picture

"The Russians are now more dependent on our money than we are on their gas"

And never forget the near-total dependence of Russia on the EU for hand-bags and couture.

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 16:49 | 4544867 WTFUD
WTFUD's picture

Which colour of the rainbow shall we call this Charade OR are those already used up?

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 16:52 | 4544878 Oldballplayer
Oldballplayer's picture

I laughed out loud the other day when Peter King was saying we should send LNG to Europe. 

My wife asked me why I was laughing.  I told her it was because we could send LNG to Europe, in about ten years.  AND, our Natural Gas supply is at about 40% of its normal inventory.

We will be working our assess off the next four months getting our inventory back up to inventory levels for the winter of 2015.

This talk is just bullshit.

Long cord wood in German forests.

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 17:11 | 4544989 Dewey Cheatum Howe
Dewey Cheatum Howe's picture

Not when you can fill the tankers in the gulf of Mexico and ship them northwards. It is all about the money. The infrastructure to pipe it to the east coast and create the filing stations comes afterwards. If it becomes a 'national security' interest it will happen yesterday if enough money and jobs created are involved right now.

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 17:27 | 4545094 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

You do realize the US is a net nat gas importer?

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 19:29 | 4545637 shutdown
shutdown's picture

Yo, Crash, Dewey might be thinking that the USA'll somehow arm-twist or force Mexico and Canada to drop everything, quit supplying the USA, and embark on a war-like footing on behalf of the USA and quickly build the infrastructure enabling them to ship the liguified NG to Central and Eastern Europe. However, I'm not quite sure Mexico and Canada are that concerned about Russia welcoming Crimea back to their country. 

(edit) Oh, I almost forgot to mention that the NG supplied in this fantasy scenario would be about 10% of the NG needs of the recipient nations combined. The good stuff we burn is quite scarce, getting scarcer all the time no matter what the state controlled media tells us. 

 

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 18:23 | 4545371 Simplifiedfrisbee
Simplifiedfrisbee's picture

Many of you are out of touch, but not unintelligent. Look at Velocity as the indicator to the pretense of economic turmoil. The US is no longer a manufacturing based economy. Dollars will fling out faster than a hippo taking a dump going to war. US can not afford war as Russia can not because this will not be a short war. The end is suffering, wether by inflation or by deflation. The large difference is once ideology is influenced it can lead to dark human desires.

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 16:54 | 4544887 olle
olle's picture

Correction: Sweden Is not using Russian Gas, and Finland onli for  a small part.

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 17:11 | 4544992 Freddie
Freddie's picture

What is Sweden using?  Norweigian nat gas or Norweigian wood?   And the Finns?

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 17:29 | 4545108 FlipFlop
FlipFlop's picture

Finland 100% gas dependent on Russia.

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 16:57 | 4544897 Iam Yue2
Iam Yue2's picture

The numbers;

"So in the case of Moscow occupying the Republic of Crimea, the project would instantly save approximately USD 10 billion, as it would be this much cheaper to lay down the offshore section of South Stream on the shallow coastal waters, across the peninsula, which would be a much smaller challenge technically, and which would significantly abridge the passage of Russian gas towards Europe across the Black Sea."

Loss to Ukraine ( note U.S. Reference);

"The loss for Ukraine would be much more significant. They would lose their access to the greater part of offshore oil and gas locations, and all agreements regarding these locations, made with foreign (mainly American) oil companies, would become invalid. And they would not be able to economically bring ashore exploited gas from the remaining hydrocarbon locations, as they would need to bring pipelines to the more remote Ukrainian coastline."

More Russian gains;

"Russian control over the Crimean Peninsula - beside the fact that it would solve the ethnic problem and the question of the fleet - would create a brand new situation regarding the oil and gas market, because the stakes are high: if Crimea falls under Russian authority, Russia will be able to greatly expand its borders in the Black Sea, among others, to the three enormous oil and gas field that can be found next to Crimea.

Furthermore, there is a tremendous amount of gas under the shallow waters of the Sea of Azov, as there are fields with great potential to the southeast and to the west of Crimea as well. Each one of the hydrocarbon locations can be found on the shallow continental shelf, which has the advantage of the significantly cheaper extraction of the oil and gas there, compared to the deeper parts of the Black Sea."

Great Article;

http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/ukraine-russia-natural-gas-andrs-jenei

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 17:02 | 4544926 Let them eat iPads
Let them eat iPads's picture

If it's not too late, Europe would like to re-install that Yankovich fellow.

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 17:26 | 4545089 Freddie
Freddie's picture

Europe better get smart fast or they can go along with Nuland and "F the EU!"   Idiocy and a criminal United States.

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 17:08 | 4544964 Ulterior
Ulterior's picture

I am using wood, fck the putkins gas

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 17:21 | 4544966 yt75
yt75's picture

Plus let's not forget that although the gas and oil pipelines have been built towards the west, the fields are kind of midway between East (China Japan india) and the West and the gas currently around 3 times more expensive in asia :

http://www.britannica.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/0000000675-fo...

By the way, the transiberian gas pipeline was built during the Reagan years and USSR war in Afghanistan, and Reagan adminnistration tried to stop it (embargo on technology, credit blocking) as a way to cut currency in flow to the USSR, which together with the counter oil shock also brought worked and put the last blow :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=02F-3l1EKsA

This time the story is about bringing Europe down, and pushing Russia in bed with China ?

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 17:46 | 4545103 yt75
yt75's picture

About the transiberian pipeline story :

"

The pipeline project was proposed in 1978 as an export pipeline from Yamburg gas field, but was later changed to the pipeline from Urengoy field, which was already in use. In July 1981, a consortium of German banks, led by Deutsche Bank, and the AKA Ausfuhrkredit GmbH agreed to provide 3.4 billion Deutsche Mark in credits for the compressor stations. Later finance agreements were negotiated with a group of French banks and the Japan Export-Import Bank (JEXIM). In 1981-1982, contracts were signed with compressors and pipes suppliers Creusot-Loire, John Brown Engineering, Nuovo Pignone, AEG-Telefunken, Mannesmann, Dresser Industries, and Japan Steel Works. Pipe-layers were bought from Caterpillar Inc. and Komatsu.[1]

The pipeline was constructed in 1982-1984. It complemented the transcontinental gas transportation system Western Siberia-Western Europe which existed since 1973. The official inauguration ceremony took place in France.[2]

On 19 July 2011, UkrTransGaz started modernization of the pipeline"

 

"were strongly opposed by the Reagan administration.[8][9][10][11][12] The United States prevented U.S. companies from selling supplies to the Soviets for the pipeline, as part of what was also retribution against the Soviets for their policies towards Poland.[13]

America's Western European allies, however, refused to bow[14] to U.S. pressure[15] to boycott the pipeline,[16][17] insisting that contracts already signed between the Soviets and European companies needed to be honored. This led to several European companies being sanctioned by the U.S. Government.[15][18] Reagan reportedly said "Well, they can have their damned pipeline. But not with American equipment and not with American technology."[19] The efforts by the U.S. pressure to prevent the construction of the pipeline, and its export embargo of supplies for the pipeline (1980–1984) constituted one of the most severe transatlantic crises of the Cold War.[18][20] "

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urengoy%E2%80%93Pomary%E2%80%93Uzhgorod_pip...

 

 

 

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 17:14 | 4545001 Son of Captain Nemo
Son of Captain Nemo's picture

The hubris of controlling Western banks is the hubris of controlling Western oil corporations.

Sure hope Poland is ready to ante up on all that "fracking" when this becomes a genuine pissing contest.  Somehow I don't anticipate that Western Europe will be too enthusiastic with the Anglo-American decision(s) that continue to be made on their behalf through the EU collective that was forced on them!

Something tells me we may see a rebellion given the forced economic climate followed by an event or series of event(s) to rally the troops.

But this time I don't see that working out too well... And the "Macbeth(s)" are getting mighty nervous on figuring out how to pull the next one, two or three off without getting in trouble this time!

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 17:31 | 4545121 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Poland was the poster child of european shale oil and gas about 5 years ago.

January of last year Exxon and Eni pulled out.

Drilling says there's nothing there.

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 17:45 | 4545199 Son of Captain Nemo
Son of Captain Nemo's picture

Don't claim to know enough on the subject geological discoveries and how much of it is out there, but you certainly wouldn't surprise me at all if this were indeed true.

Like I said further up.  And now for our next trick!!!...

Sure hope the guillotines and nooses will be at the ready when these guys pull the next major stunt, cause if they plan to take more of us out in order to start the next major war, I can almost guarantee enough of us are awake to take them out as well!

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 17:19 | 4545034 Fix It Again Timmy
Fix It Again Timmy's picture

The new Russian national anthem:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vHDA5nHlDrQ

Take that, bitchez.....

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 17:30 | 4545112 Son of Captain Nemo
Son of Captain Nemo's picture

Nah...

If I were going to pick a Nugent toon, this would be the one Putin will be singing to President Remus and Johnny breath Kerry as he pounds them both from the rear!

Cause the magic is definitely in his hands and certainly not with the other two!

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 17:20 | 4545043 news printer
news printer's picture

http://www.stratfor.com/image/russian-oil-exports-europe-and-asia

In 2007, the European Union imported from Russia 185 million tonnes of crude oil, which accounted for 32.6% of total oil import, and 100.7 million tonnes of oil equivalent of natural gas, which accounted 38.7% of total gas import.[1]

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 17:30 | 4545113 Runs-With_Toast
Runs-With_Toast's picture

From RT>

One way Russia plans on shielding itself from pending sanctions is by boosting trade in other currencies, not the US dollar.

“We need to increase trade volume conducted in national currencies. Why, in relation to China, India, Turkey and other countries, should we be negotiating in dollars? Why should we do that? We should sign deals in national currencies- this applies to energy, oil, gas, and everything else,” Aleksey Ulyukaev, the Minister of Economic Development said in an interview with the Vesti 24 TV channel.

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 18:52 | 4545492 Angry White Dude
Angry White Dude's picture

This is the next logical step.

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 22:50 | 4546299 luckylogger
luckylogger's picture

You guys really have no idea how monetary policy is done. You just listen to headlines and BS and say what china and russia wish could happen. Fact is.... if you study it and understand how the whole thing works.... Prez Nixon took care of Russia and China years ago.... without a shot. They are fuked and know it.

They may succeed in the long run, but no way it is possible in our lifetimes without full out nuclear war and 5 people left standing. That is the real deal. read up on it instead of coming up with some sensationalist bullshit.

Once again I want to break the record for red arrows for telling you guys the truth....

:)

Hve to add this; whatever you guys do, do not trade futures relying on guys blowing off steam on these blog pages.....

This is just a little disclaimer.

Hopefully ES will tank about 75 points tomorrow and give us all some fun!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 17:36 | 4545158 symtex411
symtex411's picture

I'm guessing this will help the price of US nat-gas exports... 

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 17:43 | 4545190 geno-econ
geno-econ's picture

Beyond impact of nat gas disruption, think of what happens to all those European banks holding Ukraine bonds about to tank. The Great Depression started with a little known Austrian bank and as it turns out Austria currently holds the largest share of Ukraine Bonds. This has not been thought out because current US policy is driven by Cold War Warriors, Neocons and Old Empire Strategists. In next two weeks we will see results of our folly.
In meantime, Ukrainians will be the first to suffer followed by European banks with spillover to the entire financial system that will lose confidence in US dollar as a currency for the conduct global trade and commerce.
After this weekend it is not too late for President Obama to acknowledge Crimea's probable continuation within the Russian orbit and find democratic ways to allow Ukrainians to decide their fate without outside influences.
President Obama can be a World Leader or go down as the President that unknowingly blundered the world into a world wide recession or worse.
President Obama---your move, the world is watching

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 22:22 | 4546243 SDShack
SDShack's picture

Rest assured that 0zer0 will make the WRONG move. It's what he always does. Also, don't worry about Ukraine banks failing, and by extension, EU banks that invest in Ukraine bonds. Did that contagion take affect it Greece? In Cyprus? In Italy? In Spain? Nope. It won't in Ukraine either. The EU, with the Fed as backstop, will bail EVERYONE out. There is NO MORAL Hazard anymore because their is no rule of law anymore. It's the sociopath way.

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 18:04 | 4545259 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

it's not so much the european countries i'm concerned about now... but, the united states?

learning from the 'cycle-of-life', and mother nature as the grand master 'emeritus', of the old and tried 'farmers` almanac', my senses tell me that we're in for the hottest summer/fall in american history! 

this is how shit happens on top of bad shit. it just gets worse...

with our country bogged down under a heat index close to temperatures in hades... being above ground we will, not only have to import our grain from russia but perhaps supplement our energy also... putting a strain on an already stretch system where natgas in iran (and ME countries used specifically for desalination, etc.) already has to be imported.  just sayin?

thankyou Tyler

jmo

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 18:39 | 4545431 negative rates
negative rates's picture

We're stretchin thin, but still strong.

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 18:00 | 4545273 Son of Captain Nemo
Son of Captain Nemo's picture

Meanwhile back in the occupied territories where the chair satans dwell....

Hope Israel is enjoying themselves, cause if Russia is provoked I don't think that side of the Med will be immune.

Russia and China in Syria and Iran... Hey Israel is that a crack in your "Iron Dome" or are you just happy to see the both of us?

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 18:01 | 4545279 New American Re...
New American Revolution's picture

Me thinks someone is color blind that made this chart.

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 18:37 | 4545412 blindman
blindman's picture

ireland, spain and portugal
are safe. even greece will
suffer more. of course germany
will push their suffering onto
the irish and spanish populations,
so, there is that; belgium might have
an existential crisis?

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 18:08 | 4545302 pragmatic hobo
pragmatic hobo's picture

5.8% to 49.5%? what kind of stupid chart is this?

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 18:33 | 4545394 blindman
blindman's picture

ireland and spain are safe.

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 18:09 | 4545305 Ifigenia
Ifigenia's picture

If their are no US military bases there in Europe and Japan, I dare say the G-7 still include Russia. Why they have to hurt theirs economies to save a nazi-zio puppet government in Kiev installed by the fucked Victoria.

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 18:32 | 4545391 Tartarus
Tartarus's picture

Of course, energy dependence on Russia is not limited to natural gas. A significant amount of Europe's oil, coal, and uranium imports come from Russia. Finland is even heavily dependent on electricity imported from Russia. They do not even have to completely halt imports to cause a crisis. Given the level of dependency and the lack of breathing room, any significant cut would be enough to seriously disrupt the European economy.

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 18:36 | 4545413 Lumberjack
Lumberjack's picture
China Buries Obama’s ‘Sputnik’ Goal for Clean-Energy Use
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-03/china-buries-obama-sputnik-aim-...

China is beating the U.S. in the race to supply clean-energy technologies to the world, helped by a government bank whose advisers include Henry Kissinger.

China Development Bank Corp., which listed the former U.S. secretary of state as an advisory board member in a 2010 bond prospectus, agreed last year to lend 232 billion yuan ($35.4 billion) to Chinese wind and solar power companies. The U.S. gave about $4 billion to their American competitors in grants and offered about $16 billion of loan guarantees. Adding in private investment, China also led.

CDB, which has almost twice the assets of the World Bank, is matching U.S. expertise with Chinese financing and manufacturing prowess to dominate a market both nations say is critical to their future. Chinese solar-panel makers such as LDK Solar Co. Ltd. were the biggest loan recipients and for the first time last year supplied more than half the global market, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance, which begins its annual conference today in New York.

“What China’s doing is really smart,” said Jon Anda, vice chairman of UBS AG’s securities unit in Stamford, Connecticut, who runs the Swiss bank’s environmental markets business. “Without a clear policy path, we’ll get crushed.”

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 20:22 | 4545792 ThisIsBob
ThisIsBob's picture

He is not going to turn off the gas anytime soon; its money good from the EU assholes who are really powerless to do any damage to Russia.

For instance, you know why GB isn't hot for sanctions?  BP.  What about the Kraut exporting oligarchs who have just weighed in?  And all the French will be able to do is fart in the general direction.  Etc.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 07:07 | 4546972 Perfecthedge
Perfecthedge's picture

Exactly.  Plus the 4.000 or so German companies operating out of Russia.

One fine example being Volkswagen.  Built one huge-ass factory in Kaluga, outputting 150.000 cars/year (Tiguan, Touareg, VW California) and invested over 500 Million €.  They also bought another Russian factory complex to up the ante to 360.000 units per year.  They sell a lot of cars over there and not in hell will they bend over and let the Russian business goe down the toilet.  I know my Germans too well. 

Thu, 03/13/2014 - 20:31 | 4545865 german Wunderkind
german Wunderkind's picture

i dont realy see the problems.  europe has no energie problem. its a heat problem, and its getting summer early this year.

and if it gets ugly next winter  europe can heat with electric heaters. thats no cheap, but its possible because europe has so much old rarely used coalplants.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 00:38 | 4546649 laomei
laomei's picture

lol, that's a bullshit chart.. 5.8~49.5%.  I mean, that means literally nothing apart from the desire to color more countries yellow.  It's like Fox talking up about their massive 24~75 viewer demographic, in fox's case we know it's all 60+ and everything under that is bullshit.  Here's the simple fact, any country over ~15% reliant is flat out fucked.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 03:29 | 4546833 Mad_max
Mad_max's picture

bullish

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