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Citi: Is This Gold's Breakout Week?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Precious metals (gold in particular) continue to push higher and along with copper (to the downside) hold 'center-stage' among world commodity markets. As Citi's FX Technicals group notes gold has traded above very strong resistance on the $1,350 to $1,362 range suggestng a test up to $1,434 and the next level at the 200-week moving average at $1,493. Gold is also getting close to the "golden cross" where the 50DMA will cross above the 200DMA. Such a move, if seen, would strongly suggest that the corrective low is in (at $1,182) and that a re-test of the all-time highs at $1,921 and beyond is highly likely.

Via Citi's FX Technicals group,

Gold weekly chart: Is this the breakout week?

Gold has traded above very good resistance in the $1,350 to $1,362 range
– $1,350: 55 week moving average
– $1,353: Top of channel from the 2012 peak
– $1,362: Peak of bounce seen in October 2013.

A weekly close above this range would open up the way for a test of the pivotal double bottom neckline at $1,434. A weekly close above this latter level would complete the double bottom and suggest extended gains towards $1,680-1,685. Such a move would take us back above both the 200 week moving average at $1,493 and the horizontal resistance (previously support) from 2011-2012 at $1,523-1,527.

Such a move, if seen, would strongly suggest that the corrective low is in (At $1,182) and that a re-test of the all-time highs at $1,921 and beyond is highly likely.

Silver is so far lagging the Gold move

Surprisingly Silver has, to date, been lagging Gold in this last move higher. Good resistance stands overhead and needs to be broken to signal the next leg higher:
– $21.94: Downward sloping trend line.
– $22.16: 55 week moving average.

A weekly close above this range would open up the way for a test of the double bottom neckline at $25.10.

A weekly close above that latter level would open up the way for gains towards $31+.

Interim resistance is met at:
– $26.08-26.40: Major horizontal supports (Now resistance) in 2011/2012 that gave way in April 2013.
– $28.27: 200 week moving average
 

 

 

 

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Fri, 03/14/2014 - 15:13 | 4549150 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Paper or physical?

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 15:18 | 4549171 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

Gold is a treasure, and he who possesses it does all he wishes to in this world, and succeeds in helping souls into paradise.” – Christopher Columbus

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 16:03 | 4549437 flacon
flacon's picture

A lot will depend on the vote on Sunday, as well as the days following the vote. Does Putin only have one ball, or does he have balls of GOLD? Only time will tell... but my bets are squarely on his GOLDEN BALLS. (not to sound gay or anything)

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 16:09 | 4549462 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I hope for your sake his balls are not tired.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 16:26 | 4549525 Gief Gold Plox
Gief Gold Plox's picture

Let me get this strait. A bank wrote an article about where the price of gold (which is 99.999% manipulated and 0.001% "fixed") is heading based on the brilliant work of their team of technical analysis experts.

Have they never heard the term HFT? Do they expect to be taken seriously? On this site? Lol.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 20:17 | 4550395 DirkDiggler11
DirkDiggler11's picture

No new highs in Gold in the short term. The Fed just received some fresh Ukrainian Gold to lever at 100 to 1 to help keep the price of suppressed for another couple of months.

Sorry Germany, you gold order from the Fed is still on back-order, may take another decade or two before they can ship your gold, it has to come all the way from China you know !!!

Sat, 03/15/2014 - 02:47 | 4551331 HyperinflatmyNutts
HyperinflatmyNutts's picture

I read this on KWN

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 18:40 | 4550082 JRev
JRev's picture

"Fuck the brown people, I have guns." -Hernan Cortes

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sZHCVyllnck

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 15:21 | 4549172 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Gold (physical) at less than $1500 is such a bargain.  Why, it is so cheap, oh never mind, you´ve all heard it before...

If you don´t have some, and if you have children, then you really need to think about getting some gold very soon.

EDIT:

If you are patient, gold will still be cheap at $2000.  IMO.  YMMV.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 15:55 | 4549401 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

This latest move has me feeling so nostalgic, I went and hit KWN just to again read the most important interview I will EVER read.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 16:31 | 4549562 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

LOL, by next Tuesday, at the latest, KWN will have the most important interview you will EVER have to read...

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 17:17 | 4549787 gadflew
gadflew's picture

"And what an interview he gave..."

I wonder if "interview" isnt code for something else

Also,

In addition to its monetary role, did you know gold is extremely delicious when shaven onto your Kobe burger?

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 20:35 | 4550459 DirkDiggler11
DirkDiggler11's picture

KWM also reported that John Embry and the mysterious "London Trader" were both found in a bathroom stall together while looking for the also mysterious GLD underground vault.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 18:26 | 4550042 logicalman
logicalman's picture

Comparing gold to dollars tells you more about the dollar than Au, IMHO.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 16:07 | 4549452 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

Laws

I'm sure you know but:

paper is what today's gold market is. 99% of all trades are paper.

Physical however is all that will count at the final buzzer.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 16:32 | 4549566 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

I finally made it into the 1% of something decent anyway.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 16:27 | 4549549 RamonLlull
RamonLlull's picture

I just see enormous downward sloping triangles in both gold and silver .....

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 19:26 | 4550228 Jannn
Fri, 03/14/2014 - 15:14 | 4549152 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

Gold bitchez

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 15:19 | 4549169 e_goldstein
e_goldstein's picture

Gold ('cause how else are you going to be able to afford a $1000 loaf of bread), bitchez.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 22:53 | 4550905 Greenskeeper_Carl
Greenskeeper_Carl's picture

Ya that's the truth. That's why I'm not really looking forward to seeing 100$ up days. It may feel good for a minute to have been right all along, and hear all the "how could this happen" as people watch their paper wealth evaporate, but the world is not likely to be a pleasant place for a while, gold holder or not

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 15:17 | 4549165 rabbitusvomitus
rabbitusvomitus's picture

And a war in Europe would send em both to the effing stratosphere.  Technicals shmecnicals! It's fear dat be driving miss daisy! 

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 15:19 | 4549174 SgtShaftoe
SgtShaftoe's picture

You don't need a war, just the truth being publicly disclosed would do it.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 16:03 | 4549441 rehypothecator
rehypothecator's picture

Public disclosure of the truth amounts to an act of war.  

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 15:20 | 4549179 Gringo Viejo
Gringo Viejo's picture

If these effeminate men and masculine women in DC don't back off, price won't matter. They're going to get all of us killed. Hard to believe how perverse it's all become.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 15:23 | 4549190 SgtShaftoe
SgtShaftoe's picture

That may very well be their plan. Hope for the best and prepare for the worst.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 15:27 | 4549214 Gringo Viejo
Gringo Viejo's picture

You too brother. God be with you and yours.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 15:32 | 4549248 SgtShaftoe
SgtShaftoe's picture

You as well sir. I'm not usually a praying man, but I've been doing just that lately.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 16:35 | 4549584 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Prayers to both of you, and well, to everyone else in the world as well.  Looks like we´re going to need them.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 18:54 | 4550121 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

Yeah? Prayer is not the last resort. Prayer is the FIRST resort.

 

But I do not forsee any help from Heaven above. Jesus will allow the Physical Consequences of our inaction, our sins. There is no hope on Earth other than Jesus. He forgave the thief on the cross but allowed him to suffer and die for his sin.

 

Our situation is not problematic but it is a predicament. Problems may, or may not, have solutions. Predicaments have outcomes.

 

If you are in a Passinger Jet at 35,000 feet, and if it disintegrates in mid air, and, if you survive that event, then no matter how much you pray you are going to strike the ground, or, ocean, and you will in all liklihood die. That is the outcome as you would be in a bad predicament with the outcome of a fatal impact. It is not a problem with any possible solutions but it is a predicament.

 

Then, sometimes, miracles happen. But that is a rarity. I will not bet on that. If it happens then I will be thankful.

 

But I will not be angered of disappointed if a miracle does not occur and, then, following the lack of a miraculous manifestation, claim that God did not exist. But too many will do just that and will fall away.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 19:17 | 4550187 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Emmet Fox in 1938 wrote that anything can happen if you are spiritually very strong and your prayers are at that level as well.  It is very rare, but there are those who have immense power to do good with simple but effective prayer.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 15:22 | 4549185 SgtShaftoe
SgtShaftoe's picture

The gold "price" is like the engine temperature needle. The Bernank and Yellen, et al have been diddling it for decades. At some point the engine just shits the bed, and it's over.

It's been spewing black smoke since 2008, could be any time now.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 19:00 | 4550147 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

I agree. The Engine can be overheated and melting, while the Engine Temperature guage can read cool or cold as there is no coolant in the Engine Jacket.

 

Likewise the price of Gold can remain low in an overheated economy that is in the process of melting down because there is NO GOLD in the vaults of America. (The price is as the temperature as Gold is as to the coolant.)

 

How many cars have you cooked? I cooked one learning that lesson the hard way.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 15:35 | 4549265 22winmag
22winmag's picture

Hope not, I'm scrapping and scraping for another ounce or two before nay major breakout.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 15:36 | 4549279 scubapro
scubapro's picture

 

 

when patterns fail they fail fast.    given gold and equities have been moving inversely of each other, this would also mean (if the relationthip ocntinued) that equities cliff dive at the same time gold breaks out.  and treasuries will probably be bid as well.  

 

since all this is so obvious, some different will occur.  path of highest frustration for both sides would be rally in equities just to get to near new highs, while gold gives up a thrid to half its run since dec, THEN the big moves.

 

 

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 15:43 | 4549335 enloe creek
enloe creek's picture

yeah cause things always go straight up  and late calls after the price has moved 15% are always correct.  useless post. 

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 15:53 | 4549392 gatorengineer
gatorengineer's picture

you mean like faceplant, apple, etc......

Dont get me wrong if they hold the taper next week, gold will likely dip, and it would be a good time stack more.  If they pause the taper look for $1450 next week or more....  stocks smashed and bonds bid.....  oh thats already been said.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 15:45 | 4549343 Oldballplayer
Oldballplayer's picture

And then the whole thing falls apart....and the Dow is back to 6000, the SP is 600, and gold is $500.

Things are going deflationary.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 15:52 | 4549387 seek
seek's picture

If that actually happens, then we'll also see bail-ins sucking up 50% of anyone's savings, then shortly thereafter monetary velocity skyrockets as trust in the USD fails, and the Dow blows past 100K and gold ceases having a price in USD.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 16:40 | 4549610 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Being diversified, being aware and being nimble will help.  Gold, physical FIAT$, even some Bitcoin (ah, still no takers here in Peru during my visit, "¿Que cosa es "Bitcoin", Sr?").  

And all the other stuff (like guns, food, etc.) too, in case it all blows up.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 22:58 | 4550928 Greenskeeper_Carl
Greenskeeper_Carl's picture

Don't forget the bank runs, resulting in 'bank holidays', and long lines at every ATM as people line up to attempt to retrieve their money back from the banks at the 100/day withdrawal limit.

Sat, 03/15/2014 - 18:56 | 4553090 heavy.metal
heavy.metal's picture

It's so stupid. People line up in the bank to get paper, while the real, physical wealth is elsewhere!

Be one step ahead. While they do that, go to the supermarket and do some shopping.

When they go sack the supermarket, be cozzy at home already.

 

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 16:02 | 4549434 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

obp

you could hold your hand in a flame longer than the world would tolerate deflation. At the first wiff you will see CBs cranking out 'liquidity' to 'temporarily' help with the problem.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 21:53 | 4550712 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

1st: that can't happen in that combination. If DOW drops that low gold must go up, of gold drops that low DOW must go up. They can't go down like that together. They're forcibly pushing in opposite directions with little slippage for small moves from the median zone we were in 2 years ago.

2nd: that's not even what deflation is. Deflation is not a change in prices.

Deflation requires a real loss of actual capital, not measured in dollars but the actual supply of the credit+money in existence, not merely a down-valuing of price. For every singular price that drops you simply see prices rise elsewhere with no reduction in credit+basemoney.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 15:49 | 4549349 jmcadg
jmcadg's picture

If Citi see a rally, doesn't that suggest a smack down is coming?

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 15:50 | 4549350 jmcadg
jmcadg's picture

If Citi see a rally, doesn't that suggest a smack down is coming?

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 23:02 | 4550940 Greenskeeper_Carl
Greenskeeper_Carl's picture

That's kinda what I was thinking. Sell GDXJ and buy DUST?

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 15:46 | 4549355 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

    Quick everyone get your out of the money equity and F/X sell orders in before the weekend fireworks show starts.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 15:53 | 4549393 Miffed Microbio...
Miffed Microbiologist's picture

That's one option. I myself have been backing up the truck with gusto the last year. ;-)

Miffed;-)

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 16:03 | 4549439 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

   Keep up the good work Miffed. :-)

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 16:07 | 4549453 Grande Tetons
Grande Tetons's picture

Lone post for today, YC. 

Nice calls. Smart cookie...you are! 

No trading for me over the weekend. Spending REAL time with the family for a change. Whatever happens....happens. That, and like our microbiolgist friend...I have my gusto. 

All the best, YC. 

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 16:18 | 4549507 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

   @  Grande Tetons Have a good W/E my friend, and thanks for the compliment.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 16:20 | 4549521 Miffed Microbio...
Miffed Microbiologist's picture

A privilege to be here in the presence of shrewd greats. Passion in all things is my motto though this can be uncomfortable for many around me. That is their loss. To give up gusto is akin to giving up life but it is nice to sit a spell at the Oasis sometimes. Happy weekend to you both.

Miffed;-)

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 16:27 | 4549551 Grande Tetons
Grande Tetons's picture

I am breaking my lone post rule...to say likewise., MM.  Happy weekend to you and your family and hoping you continue to enjoy the Oasis in your backyard...balcony should you be a city slicker.

Forgive me, I have to go brag to wife and kid that I am a shrwed great. 

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 16:58 | 4549706 Miffed Microbio...
Miffed Microbiologist's picture

Not a brag, just a statement of fact. However, after some thought, there was some playful banter here about nominating me for office which does cast a bit of doubt to your shrewd qualities. Thank goodness this was all in jest as I pleadingly claimed to Mr as he held my IPad over the wood chipper.

Miffed;-)

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 16:21 | 4549524 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Rather interesting disconnect between SPX and /es.

 

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 15:47 | 4549360 jmcadg
jmcadg's picture

Apologies double post

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 15:49 | 4549375 ...out of space
...out of space's picture

13 berral of oil for 1 oz. gold was  from the year start and now it move to 14.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 20:45 | 4550491 mt paul
mt paul's picture

smaller barrels ..?

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 15:58 | 4549419 LibertyBear
LibertyBear's picture

Just wait until after hours and during the weekend, it will get slammed again. And I hope so too, I still need to a year or so to get to my PM goal.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 16:20 | 4549508 superflex
superflex's picture

Slammed on the weekend and after hours?

Too funny.

News Flash.  Today is Friday.  Markets will be closed until 1800 EST Sunday.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 15:59 | 4549421 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

There is only one precious metal...all the rest are commodities (well technically gold is too for now). Only gold is held by central banks. If they decide to reintroduce anything as a reserve asset it will be gold and only gold. The CBs are not going to start hoarding silver and deprive the world of the benefits of silver. Gold on other hand has only one use (except for eating of course) and that is as a wealth preserver. I hear it works well in that capacity.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 16:19 | 4549511 whatsinaname
whatsinaname's picture

Gold and silver are eaten on parts of the Indian sub-continent too btw.. on some of their sweets.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 18:24 | 4550030 logicalman
logicalman's picture

Ithink the Indian name is 'vark'

Could be wrong.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 16:33 | 4549565 mt paul
mt paul's picture

if you melt .02 of 1 % gold chloride 

in your glass making chemicals 

you get gold ruby coloured glass..

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 16:39 | 4549605 fukidontknow
fukidontknow's picture

And yet all the major state mints continue to coin current silver dollars, silly them.

Sat, 03/15/2014 - 04:44 | 4551385 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

izzat so?

[nano-porous gold]

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 16:01 | 4549431 crash commando
crash commando's picture

Citi is never wrong.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 16:03 | 4549440 royal
royal's picture

Citi's call seems more likely then that bullshit Bank of America call.

Sat, 03/15/2014 - 04:40 | 4551383 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

with silver = e(gold x3/2635 + (19/12) ) this puts silver behind its trend curve http://flic.kr/p/f17z1s by a solid 9.67%.

23.4811649542 / 21.41 =1.09673820431 or 9.67%

so 21.41 + 9.67% = 23.4811649542

USD 1381.50 x 3 / 2635 + 19/12 = LN(23.4811649542 USD / oz silver)

 

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