Citi: Is This Gold's Breakout Week?

Tyler Durden's picture

Precious metals (gold in particular) continue to push higher and along with copper (to the downside) hold 'center-stage' among world commodity markets. As Citi's FX Technicals group notes gold has traded above very strong resistance on the $1,350 to $1,362 range suggestng a test up to $1,434 and the next level at the 200-week moving average at $1,493. Gold is also getting close to the "golden cross" where the 50DMA will cross above the 200DMA. Such a move, if seen, would strongly suggest that the corrective low is in (at $1,182) and that a re-test of the all-time highs at $1,921 and beyond is highly likely.

Via Citi's FX Technicals group,

Gold weekly chart: Is this the breakout week?

Gold has traded above very good resistance in the $1,350 to $1,362 range
– $1,350: 55 week moving average
– $1,353: Top of channel from the 2012 peak
– $1,362: Peak of bounce seen in October 2013.

A weekly close above this range would open up the way for a test of the pivotal double bottom neckline at $1,434. A weekly close above this latter level would complete the double bottom and suggest extended gains towards $1,680-1,685. Such a move would take us back above both the 200 week moving average at $1,493 and the horizontal resistance (previously support) from 2011-2012 at $1,523-1,527.

Such a move, if seen, would strongly suggest that the corrective low is in (At $1,182) and that a re-test of the all-time highs at $1,921 and beyond is highly likely.

Silver is so far lagging the Gold move

Surprisingly Silver has, to date, been lagging Gold in this last move higher. Good resistance stands overhead and needs to be broken to signal the next leg higher:
– $21.94: Downward sloping trend line.
– $22.16: 55 week moving average.

A weekly close above this range would open up the way for a test of the double bottom neckline at $25.10.

A weekly close above that latter level would open up the way for gains towards $31+.

Interim resistance is met at:
– $26.08-26.40: Major horizontal supports (Now resistance) in 2011/2012 that gave way in April 2013.
– $28.27: 200 week moving average