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Consumer Confidence Fades; Misses By Most In 15 Months

Tyler Durden's picture




 

It would appear that pending wars in Europe, freezing snow storms (and droughts) in the US, and Asian credit concerns have finaly taken their toll on US consumer confidence. At 79.9 relative to an expectation of 82.2 this is the biggest miss since Dec 2012 and lowest since Nov 2013.Current conditions rose modestly but the economic outlook fell by its most in 5 months. UMich confidence remains notably below the July 2013 peak levels (which correspond quite coincidentally to the same 4 year 4 month cycle we have seen in the prior 2 cycles) despite stocks have made higher highs since then as the decoupling remains in place.

Confidence fades and is well off July 2013 peak levels...

 

As we have noted previously - this move in confidence is key...

But, it's all about confidence... investors will not be willing to pay increasing multiples unless they are confident that the future streams of earnings are sustainable and forecastable... And simply put, the current levels of Consumer Sentiment need to almost double for the US equity market tp approach historical multiple valuation levels...

 

 

 

and the cycle appears to be shifting...

Via Citi,

Is consumer confidence set to turn?

Consumer Confidence is once again following a dynamic where we see it move higher for 4 years and 4 months before beginning to collapse

  • Moves higher from 1996-2000 with a smaller dip halfway through in October 1998
  • Moves higher from 2003-2007 with a smaller dip hallway through in October 2005
  • Moves higher and so far tops out in June 2013. Also sees a small dip halfway through in October 2011.
 

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Fri, 03/14/2014 - 10:05 | 4547645 symtex411
symtex411's picture

I am confident that you better be buying toilet paper, as shit is about to hit the fan

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 10:13 | 4547668 dobermangang
dobermangang's picture

Yup.  I'm just hoping it isn't bloody diarrhea.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 10:32 | 4547805 The_Ungrateful_Yid
The_Ungrateful_Yid's picture

When it's your time, it's your time.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 10:05 | 4547649 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Time for the students to update their rolodex to only happy people.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 10:06 | 4547655 OwnSilverPlayMusic
OwnSilverPlayMusic's picture

With protein prices expected to double and wages certainly not, you'd think Americans might actually be paying attention.  But hey I'm a dreamer.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 10:07 | 4547662 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Missed it by that much...

 

http://youtu.be/oPwrodxghrw

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 10:15 | 4547704 dobermangang
Fri, 03/14/2014 - 10:07 | 4547669 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Oops. 

 

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 10:10 | 4547680 Smegley Wanxalot
Smegley Wanxalot's picture

This question of consumer confidence is nothing that can't be easily improved with a nice falsified govt report or two and some headlines about Bieber or Kardashians. 

Only then will the world be right again.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 10:12 | 4547691 dobermangang
dobermangang's picture

And a funny dog video.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tHvExOg4NI0

 

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 10:16 | 4547698 MFLTucson
MFLTucson's picture

Is this part of the recovery that the American Hoax spoke about in the State of the Union?

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 10:21 | 4547740 corporatewhore
corporatewhore's picture

give it a rest.  they've all been hoaxes for years.  .

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 10:18 | 4547722 Spungo
Spungo's picture

This economy is running on fumes, which is cool because I like huffing solvents too. Me and economy are best buds.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 10:19 | 4547728 Spungo
Spungo's picture

lol ironic advertisements. It's Cramer's face and it says "Smart investors stand to get rich with these stocks. Can you cash in?"

 

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 10:34 | 4547824 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

It's Friday....looking forward to 2 days off from all this shit.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 10:36 | 4547834 DisArray
DisArray's picture

I thought 80.8 was expectation?

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 11:33 | 4548107 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

I suppose you might double check your source.

FWIW, here Tyler's talking about 82.2 while in a Tweet earlier 82.0 was the #. Tyler's probably quoting direct from a BBG Terminal. I use this because it's free: http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

...82.0 there.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 10:48 | 4547872 mac768
mac768's picture

Who cares, the FED will buy MOAR

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 11:02 | 4547940 elwind45
elwind45's picture

Its hard to hide it. All my regulars are brushing up on their percents and letting everybody marvel at their math skills. Its like trying to sell 10 dollar beer at a little league game

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 11:07 | 4547964 elwind45
elwind45's picture

10 dollar beer at AAA(little league baseball) for the international crowd. I tell everybody that this should be the top of prices and give reasons but I am not a Tv so I know stupid shit

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 11:15 | 4548011 elwind45
elwind45's picture

Bloomberg west needs to be out in the bay reporting on wildlife or something useful? That presenter is dry as a popcorn fart

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 11:23 | 4548063 elwind45
elwind45's picture

I would have loved to see Larry Rukyser be around today and hear what his commentary would entail on a SLOW Friday? More entertaining than Thomas Lee

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 12:14 | 4548325 CoastalCowboy
CoastalCowboy's picture

If you're a consumer, and you're actually still confident, then you are in one of three classes:

1)The Banksters
2)The Ostriches
3)The Morons

I'll only give the morons a pass as they know not what they are doing.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 12:58 | 4548523 LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

"... investors will not be willing to pay increasing multiples unless they are confident that the future streams of earnings are sustainable and forecastable..."  Are you kidding? So-called investors have been playing the 'greater fool' game now for over16 months!

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