Consumer Confidence Fades; Misses By Most In 15 Months

Tyler Durden's picture

It would appear that pending wars in Europe, freezing snow storms (and droughts) in the US, and Asian credit concerns have finaly taken their toll on US consumer confidence. At 79.9 relative to an expectation of 82.2 this is the biggest miss since Dec 2012 and lowest since Nov 2013.Current conditions rose modestly but the economic outlook fell by its most in 5 months. UMich confidence remains notably below the July 2013 peak levels (which correspond quite coincidentally to the same 4 year 4 month cycle we have seen in the prior 2 cycles) despite stocks have made higher highs since then as the decoupling remains in place.

Confidence fades and is well off July 2013 peak levels...


As we have noted previously - this move in confidence is key...

But, it's all about confidence... investors will not be willing to pay increasing multiples unless they are confident that the future streams of earnings are sustainable and forecastable... And simply put, the current levels of Consumer Sentiment need to almost double for the US equity market tp approach historical multiple valuation levels...




and the cycle appears to be shifting...

Via Citi,

Is consumer confidence set to turn?

Consumer Confidence is once again following a dynamic where we see it move higher for 4 years and 4 months before beginning to collapse

  • Moves higher from 1996-2000 with a smaller dip halfway through in October 1998
  • Moves higher from 2003-2007 with a smaller dip hallway through in October 2005
  • Moves higher and so far tops out in June 2013. Also sees a small dip halfway through in October 2011.

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symtex411's picture

I am confident that you better be buying toilet paper, as shit is about to hit the fan

dobermangang's picture

Yup.  I'm just hoping it isn't bloody diarrhea.

The_Ungrateful_Yid's picture

When it's your time, it's your time.

firstdivision's picture

Time for the students to update their rolodex to only happy people.

OwnSilverPlayMusic's picture

With protein prices expected to double and wages certainly not, you'd think Americans might actually be paying attention.  But hey I'm a dreamer.

Smegley Wanxalot's picture

This question of consumer confidence is nothing that can't be easily improved with a nice falsified govt report or two and some headlines about Bieber or Kardashians. 

Only then will the world be right again.

MFLTucson's picture

Is this part of the recovery that the American Hoax spoke about in the State of the Union?

corporatewhore's picture

give it a rest.  they've all been hoaxes for years.  .

Spungo's picture

This economy is running on fumes, which is cool because I like huffing solvents too. Me and economy are best buds.

Spungo's picture

lol ironic advertisements. It's Cramer's face and it says "Smart investors stand to get rich with these stocks. Can you cash in?"


SheepDog-One's picture

It's Friday....looking forward to 2 days off from all this shit.

DisArray's picture

I thought 80.8 was expectation?

Schmuck Raker's picture

I suppose you might double check your source.

FWIW, here Tyler's talking about 82.2 while in a Tweet earlier 82.0 was the #. Tyler's probably quoting direct from a BBG Terminal. I use this because it's free:

...82.0 there.

mac768's picture

Who cares, the FED will buy MOAR

elwind45's picture

Its hard to hide it. All my regulars are brushing up on their percents and letting everybody marvel at their math skills. Its like trying to sell 10 dollar beer at a little league game

elwind45's picture

10 dollar beer at AAA(little league baseball) for the international crowd. I tell everybody that this should be the top of prices and give reasons but I am not a Tv so I know stupid shit

elwind45's picture

Bloomberg west needs to be out in the bay reporting on wildlife or something useful? That presenter is dry as a popcorn fart

elwind45's picture

I would have loved to see Larry Rukyser be around today and hear what his commentary would entail on a SLOW Friday? More entertaining than Thomas Lee

CoastalCowboy's picture

If you're a consumer, and you're actually still confident, then you are in one of three classes:

1)The Banksters
2)The Ostriches
3)The Morons

I'll only give the morons a pass as they know not what they are doing.

LooseLee's picture

"... investors will not be willing to pay increasing multiples unless they are confident that the future streams of earnings are sustainable and forecastable..."  Are you kidding? So-called investors have been playing the 'greater fool' game now for over16 months!