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Gold Soars To Fresh 6-Month High While Risk Off Accelerates

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Gold was gently levitating once again overnight but in the last few hours both gold and silver have taken off (with the latter breaking through pre-Putin levels) and the former breaking above $1385. Gold is now up 6 weeks in a row - the longest win streak since the run into the Aug 2011 highs. Equity prices are tumbling from solidly green levels overnight - tracking EURJPY all the way lower - and Treasury bonds are well bid (-3bps today) with 10Y yields down 17bps on the week.

 

Gold and silver well above Putin levels now...

 

With gold up 6 weeks in a row...

 

and stocks are sold along with EURJPY...

 

And Treasury yields are tumbling (as rate-locks are unwound and safe-haven bids resume)

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Fri, 03/14/2014 - 08:59 | 4547254 flacon
flacon's picture

A declining stock price is good for the stock market. ... oh, wait!

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 09:03 | 4547275 SoilMyselfRotten
SoilMyselfRotten's picture

Just heard Yukon Cornelius humming a few bars......

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 09:58 | 4547565 douglas
douglas's picture

Big PM up days scare me anyway, but when I know its at least partially related to the tensions in Ukraine, it scares me even more...

Here's a (slightly modified) post of mine from a recent down day in metals...

If at this stage you are not COMPLETELY convinced that PM's are highly manipulated to maintain control of a colapsing fiat monetary system then you probably have no business owning any precious metals besides personal jewelry - I would recommend that at this point you stop reading here, close out Zero Hedge and turn on MSNBC.  

If on the other hand you are awake and can see that not only are we waist-deep in manipulation but ever-nearer to a Global Monetary Colapse, then you should be COMPLETELY convinced that it's only a question of time before TPTB lose the ability to continue said manipulation.  If this is the case you should like me be rooting for the price of PM's to go down so you can acquire more. Rather than complaining about the manipulation, be thankful for it and continue to increase your holdings. After all, the day TPTB finally lose control, the world will become a much sadder place and comforts which we now enjoy will go away for the majority of the people of this world - in fact I suspect there will be significant loss of life...  Widespread wars could affect even those of us that have prepared for the worst.

Heres something to think about (coming from someone who is well over 60%-In PM´s, with physical holdings as large as 99% of any ZH´ers) ... The best part of all this is that even if we´re wrong about the current economic situation (which all evidence proves we are not) your life will be no worse for having a large horde of Gold and Silver, on top of that you'll sleep much better... 

Note:  I hope its my paranoid instinct, but this current move up scares me more than any recent one, I´ve got a bad feeling that this could be ¨THE ONE¨...

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 10:10 | 4547684 SaveTheBales
SaveTheBales's picture

Everything was going fine -- PMs were in dumpster and headed for a decent price.

Now everything's got a premium from Pluto.  This sucks.  Why can't everyone panic NEXT year?

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 10:50 | 4547874 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

".....with physical holdings as large as 99% of any ZH´ers"

I must have missed the registration area of the ZH website.  Where you enter your positions and assets so others can compare and declare pompously "mine is bigger than yours".

Just keep your eyes looking forward in the bathroom when you are in that stall next to me

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 12:41 | 4547966 douglas
douglas's picture

My message was not intended to instill competitiveness or JEALOUSY among my fellow ZH´ers.  Perhaps I should have expressed myself differently - all I was saying with that statement was that I do not form part of the ONE Percent.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 13:04 | 4548518 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

deleted................ Nevermind.

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 20:19 | 4561235 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Looks like it to me. Next peak at 3500, next drop to 2500 or no drop at all because of currency collapse.
Then no paper price will even exist.

Download the data for gold spot prices for 10 years. Plot the date in log-scale. And the price. Now overlap the 2008 drop to the 2011 drop. Once you have a match you can take the new projected price+date combinations and map them back to actual dates and actual prices.

This may be a pain having to convert dates into numbers, use log( ) on them & then use exp ( ) on them again after but it should be incredibly revealing. The only bad part is with the time axis distorted like that it could be 24 months, not 12, to get to the 3500 mark. Oh well, time is time, it's coming regardless.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 09:08 | 4547279 knukles
knukles's picture

maniacal laughter

God this has been a long time a comin'
18 months of pure Hell, but vindication at last.
Bonds and gold as the world sinks under its very own weight of Propaganda, misdirection, incompetence and criminality come home to roost.

What we got here is a world of murder and debauchery masquerading as a New Golden Age

This will  not end well, a la Japan in a Liquidity Trap for 30 years.
Getchur income while it's there and barbell it with PM's, my friends.

...scratching nuts, sipping tea and wondering why there are so few of us seeing this unfolding... 

As Lanza stated so eloquently; "Our narratives are constructed from random events, baseless assumptions, and simpleminded prejudices and biases"

... Mr Ego, I'll take the Testicular Cancer meetings, you can have...

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 09:29 | 4547444 ArrestBobRubin
ArrestBobRubin's picture

This is nice but I'll feel even better if we don't see a smackdown at 10 EDT. After that, let's see if follow through is allowed or the usual 2%, 1%, even , hard down pattern follows next week.  

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 09:35 | 4547467 J S Bach
J S Bach's picture

Moving in the right direction.  But, is up .70% really "soaring"?  Lay off the ultra-embellished adjectives.  It bastardizes the language.  Words mean things.  I see this all the time on the internet.  If gold goes up 100 in a day, THEN say that it's "soaring".  When it goes up 10, say it "rose".

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 09:37 | 4547473 ArrestBobRubin
ArrestBobRubin's picture

Ahhh, Bach!

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 09:41 | 4547491 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

Hawkeye? Is that you?

 

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 09:41 | 4547494 SoilMyselfRotten
SoilMyselfRotten's picture

A rose by any other name...

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 09:42 | 4547503 BandGap
BandGap's picture

Glad you can set the standard for all of us. Asshole.

Now fuck off while this runs up.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 12:04 | 4548266 ArrestBobRubin
ArrestBobRubin's picture

Hope you enjoyed that little ride while it lasted Mr. Personality.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 11:50 | 4548191 BigJim
BigJim's picture

What I'd like to see explored a little more is why the the dollar is so weak, given all the geopolitical tensions. What happened to the whole 'flight to quality' nonsense?

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 18:35 | 4560903 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

but gold could rise 5 THOUSAND pennies!!! moar SOARING

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 09:45 | 4547519 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

let's see if follow through is allowed or the usual 2%, 1%, even , hard down pattern follows next week. 

Yep, looking at another 1% "limit up" day.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 09:55 | 4547566 XAU XAG
XAU XAG's picture

Would take a 1% limit up day every day of the year..........

 

We could do with at least 30 days up with no downs or evennd out to + 30 LOL

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 12:00 | 4548239 ArrestBobRubin
ArrestBobRubin's picture

Sounds like we're both LeMet subscribers...

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 12:03 | 4548259 ArrestBobRubin
ArrestBobRubin's picture

So I was one hour off, the algos kicked in at 11 instead of 10. Result is the same: the move was squelched again. 

 

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 11:32 | 4548108 midtowng
midtowng's picture

1,400 soon

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 09:00 | 4547258 savedeposit
savedeposit's picture

Silver bitches !

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 09:02 | 4547271 Wen_Dat
Wen_Dat's picture

Silver was above 22 a few weeks ago...

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 09:08 | 4547300 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Yes it was. As nice as it i watching gold right now, until I see silver break towards $25 I remain skeptical of this whole thing. 

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 09:16 | 4547352 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Silver's going to $100/oz.  The guy on the radio selling silver said so.  Apparently all the world's silver has already been used up in solar panels and iPods and stuff and they can't mine it out of the ground fast enough to keep up with demand.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 09:19 | 4547375 knukles
knukles's picture

If he believed what he said he'd be buying silver, not selling it.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 09:23 | 4547404 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

Amazingly, JPMs silver inventory at the Comex is way up over this time last year.  In fact, it may double soon.  At the same time they are still selling gold to the point of near default.  It's easy to see that the gold is getting drained off to China, but why they are buying so much silver is another question.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 15:46 | 4549338 Jack Napier
Jack Napier's picture

Ah, a thread bit with some sound thinking. Metals are hardly soaring. ZH is great and all, but they have no problem sensationalizing either.

Silver will certainly be the first metal to enter a shortage, but gold will be the first metal to disappear from the exchanges. Once the transition to the East is complete there will be plenty of gold availablae - at a much higher price, temporarily that is, until the price becomes simply an ounce of gold as all other assets become priced in gold once again.

Only then will we see silver prices skyrocket and the true physical shortage come into play as the debt circus tent implodes.

P.S.
$100/oz silver will never happen in today's dollars. The price mechanism will change before that happens.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 09:26 | 4547427 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

operators are standing by

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 09:46 | 4547523 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

At least SOMEBODY gets my sense of humor.  Tough crowd this morning.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 11:06 | 4547929 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

The move in silver begs the questions: who, industrially, needs cheap silver to survive, which players in which industries, and who would receive financing, perhaps in the form of access to cheap credit or in the form of inflated stock price or direct bailout, to weather an uncontrolled silver price, and are there indicators of that happening already.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 11:38 | 4548137 cro_maat
cro_maat's picture

Isn't the military the biggest industrial consumer of silver? Seems as though there are many militaries ramping up across the globle.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 09:23 | 4547400 Agstacker
Agstacker's picture

I'll take silver over empty fiat paper ANY day of the week.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 09:14 | 4547342 constantine
constantine's picture

True, but we do appear to have a trend of higher highs and higher lows on the short term charts... granted the long term charts are still questionnable to say the least.  At some point, the fact that the people are actually buying a lot of the real stuff has to make a difference... It's a lot easier for the central planners to manipulate stuff up (stock market) than it is to manipulate stuff down (precious metals).

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 09:01 | 4547262 29.5 hours
29.5 hours's picture

 

 

OT: I'm getting worried about the future and need to put something into a safe haven. Where can a U.S. resident buy Portuguese gov't bonds? TIA...

 

 

 

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 09:02 | 4547264 SilverIsMoney
SilverIsMoney's picture

We could close over 1400 today.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 09:02 | 4547266 skwid vacuous
skwid vacuous's picture

long dong silver!

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 09:02 | 4547269 greatbeard
greatbeard's picture

If this general market direction continues for another two years the bugs will be even with the stock folks.  Rat bastards stole two years of my life.

 

 

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 09:49 | 4547533 superflex
superflex's picture

You're quick to lay blame on others when the mirror has your answer.

The rat bastards held a gun to your head and said BTFATH!

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 09:02 | 4547270 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

of course all markets are well of there lows and creeping towards green.

 

the  DAX was down 100 points now its onl down 40.

 

u.s futures which were down modestly are now flat.

 

what a fucking farce.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 09:05 | 4547281 Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

intervention time

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 09:07 | 4547292 Greshams Law
Greshams Law's picture

Just had the wife check the safe. My gold hasn't moved at all.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 09:07 | 4547294 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Quite frankly any upward movement in price ticks me off as I would like to purchase moar at lower levels and hold on until the whole damn system vaporizes.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 09:15 | 4547347 cro_maat
cro_maat's picture

I'm with you on that. With the sheer entropy in the whole corrupt system I don't feel I can adequately prepare for the toxic mess that has been slowly oozing out and now is accelerating into a mudslide. I will keep stacking as long as they will take my worthless fiat $.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 11:31 | 4548104 joego1
joego1's picture

Exactly, I take the long view as well. This is my retirement fund I'm building and I need about 5 more years to get it right. I would much rather tell my kids about the canoe accident rather  than actually have to use it if you catch my drift.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 09:08 | 4547305 LongBalls
LongBalls's picture

Gold: NOT A FALSE WEIGHT AND MEASURE! Got gold?

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 09:16 | 4547355 TheGoldMyth
TheGoldMyth's picture

Yep LongBalls, solar panels harvest gold directly from the sun.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 09:09 | 4547312 cro_maat
cro_maat's picture

Hammer up at the open - Whale is long

Hammer down - Whale is short

Same as it ever was. Must keep the unbroken winning streak alive! Just when I get a nice commission check and can add to my stack they make more expensive. Fuck you Jamie Diamond!

I think they are just positioning themselves for the next Russia / Ukraine / China / Iran / etc. / etc. escalation. Keep stacking!

 

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 09:10 | 4547315 rubearish10
rubearish10's picture

The PM spurt and the ES tank we just saw was my switch. Sorry if anyone noticed.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 09:10 | 4547319 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Yes, our patience is finally starting to pay off. Lets not get too giddy all. We all know the powers out there will do anything they can to throw us off this bull train. I know it will not work, but it is not going to be an easy trip as we navigate our holdings higher moving forward.

Stay the course, don't try to day trade gold and silver and pay attention.

At least the idiotic trolls are mostly gone. That is worth a bunch right there.

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 15:37 | 4560156 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

But... bitcoin!!!

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 09:24 | 4547408 RaiZH
RaiZH's picture

I don't know whether to be scared or relieved. 

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 10:17 | 4547711 quasimodo
quasimodo's picture

I would suggest neither....if your scared you have already lost, and relieved? Let's just say by the time this post is sent thru we will probably be red already.

Otherwise this article is a bunch of white noise like so many others. I would dare bet two years from now we will be having the same damn discussion, albiet at higher levels and perhaps under different circumstances, but hopefully most here have had the wherewithall at that point to still have physical in hand.

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 15:36 | 4560148 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Thanks to modern day pharmacology, with the right pill, you can be both!

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 09:25 | 4547415 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

The Hard Asset loved by Swiss, Germans, Russians, Chinese, Indians, etc....inching its way b ack to $2,000.00

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 09:25 | 4547420 fuu
fuu's picture

Good thing Bank of America got long on 2/26:

 

"Gold is rolling over. The impulsive intra-day decline from today's 1345 high says that the trend has turned ahead of the confluence of long term resistance between 1350/1367. With the ADX at trend ending extremes, and daily momentum posting bearish divergences, target 1270, potentially long term triangle support at 1185.

Sell Gold at 1337, risking 1346, target 1270, potentially 1185"

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 09:26 | 4547425 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

this push up was giving signals a few days ago

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/spot-gold-daily-continues-sideways-push...

 

the upside here will continue to increment up, but 1425 may be as far as we go

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 09:29 | 4547448 elwind45
elwind45's picture

Make sure you spread your dip buying out because there may be several more in coming weeks? Don't get too giddy because we haven't hit fear or denial yet. A good tell is how the shorts are treated today? Receent past they have been slaughter. Long rates must trade below 2.5% on the ten year and than maybe go risk on? The great rotation can you hear it

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 09:44 | 4547510 Hindenburg...Oh Man
Hindenburg...Oh Man's picture

Nooooo!!! ZH, please don't point this out---it ensures a gold beat down.

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 15:35 | 4560141 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Special delivery to Zoo, monkey cages:
anyone here wanna sign for 10 hammers?
Who makes hammers fo rmonkeys anyhow? Meh, just sign here.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 09:51 | 4547547 GrinandBearit
GrinandBearit's picture

Another ZH jinks.

Now watch it drop - lol

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 09:53 | 4547555 elwind45
elwind45's picture

Have you named the Cat yet?

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 15:29 | 4560108 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

The 1st or 2nd black cat? Oh riiiiight ... when the Matrix glitches in a deja vu it's the same cat.
Nevermind.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 10:57 | 4547917 juicemoney
juicemoney's picture

I'm not really concerned about the price being knocked down tonight... It will happen. What I am concerned about is what the price will rebound to on Monday? Is Crimea going to bump the price higher? Is the US government stupid enough to try sanctions?

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 11:24 | 4548067 U4 eee aaa
U4 eee aaa's picture

Traditional spring rally?

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 11:28 | 4548083 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

Good time for traders to sell.  Holders to hold.  There will be one more great time to buy.  Then very high, very fast.

But JMFO and worth less than what you paid for it.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 11:41 | 4548154 polo007
polo007's picture

According to The International Monetary Fund (IMF):

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2014/03/pdf/bluedorn.pdf

In theory, there are many reasons why asset price movements could be associated with the business cycle. First, asset prices affect households’ net wealth and their ability to borrow, which can have important effects on households’ consumption plans. Second, according to standard Tobin’s q-theory, investment should move in the same direction as q, which is the ratio of the market value of capital to its replacement cost. Therefore investment should be high when asset prices—which are directly associated with the market value of capital—are high, and vice versa. Third, asset price changes can affect firms’ balance sheets, hurting or helping their collateral and creditworthiness and thus increasing or decreasing their willingness and ability to invest. Asset price movements may also affect banks’ balance sheets, inducing them to adjust their capital and lending activities. These effects can be amplified through financial markets when there are differences in the information available to borrowers and lenders and borrowers are limited in their ability to commit to repayment.­

Last, according to the basic asset-pricing equation in finance, an asset price should equal the discounted value of its current and expected future returns. In the case of equities, dividends are the relevant returns; for houses, it is rent. To the extent that returns move together or ahead of economic conditions, asset prices should be useful in forecasting economic activity. Movements in the discount rate (that is applied to the stream of future returns to derive present value) accentuate this relationship if they reflect investors’ search for yield—during economic expansions investors take on more risk, lowering the discount rate and bidding up the price of unchanged dividend or rent flows, while in economic contractions they do just the opposite.

In other words, there is an inherent asymmetry in the predictive power of equity prices. When stock prices fall sharply, watch out! When they rise, the chances of a recession do not change much. The predictive power of asset prices also changes when the other real-time variables are flashing red—the orange line is everywhere higher than the green line. If a term spread inversion and falling house prices accompany a large equity price drop, the model indicates that a recession is very likely in the offing.

Real asset price corrections are useful predictors of new recessions. In particular, large corrections in real equity prices are associated with significant increases in the chance that a recession will start in the following quarter. If at the same time, house prices collapse and the term spread becomes negative, the chance of a recession increases markedly. The message is clear: policymakers should be mindful of sharp asset price drops—especially if the declines are accompanied by narrowing term spreads. These developments are likely to signal trouble in the very near future.

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 12:04 | 4548262 WarPony
WarPony's picture

Hey Monkey: "STEP AWAY from the Hammer!"

Fri, 03/14/2014 - 12:19 | 4548301 jjsilver
jjsilver's picture

You see how it works folks, the Fed rigs prices in a way to make people believe the ONLY reason to own precious metals has nothing to do with currency debasement.

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 15:27 | 4560090 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

As long as we get poorer & their friends get richer I don't think they give a flying fuck what we believe.

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