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Russia Warns Of East Ukraine Invasion To "Defend Compatriots", EU Threatens Gazprom, Rosneft CEOs With Visa Ban
While Russia has been massively piling up troops next to Ukraine's eastern border, one thing that was missing to allow the crossing of the border was a provocation, aka the proverbial spark to give Moscow the green light to "defend" Russian citizens in the East. It may have just gotten that last night, when as previously reported, clashes in the eastern city of Donetsk between pro-Ukraine and pro-Russian civilians turned lethal, killing at least one person and dozens injured. A clip of the clashes can be seen below:
Needless to say, this escalation was just the green light Russia needed. As Reuters reports, the Russian Foreign Ministry, responding to the death of at least one protester in Ukraine's eastern city of Donetsk, repeated President Vladimir Putin's declaration of the right to invade to protect Russian citizens and "compatriots".
"Russia is aware of its responsibility for the lives of compatriots and fellow citizens in Ukraine and reserves the right to take people under its protection," it said. Curiously, organizers of the anti-Moscow demonstration said the dead man was from their group. That, however, is irrelevant, and in the fog of war, when tank batalions enter a country to "defend" select citizens, mistake are made.
In the meantime, and as we have been reporting since day one, Russian troops continue to gather:
A Reuters reporting team watched a Russian warship unload trucks, troops and at least one armored personnel carrier at Kazachaya bay near Sevastopol on Friday morning. Trucks drove off a ramp from the Yamal 156, a large landing ship that can carry more than 300 troops and up to a dozen APCs.
As also reported before, the key event in the coming days is the Crimean referendum whether to join Russia. Which is why a doomed last ditch diplomatic scramble has seen John Kerry rush to London where he later today he will meet Russian foreign minister Lavrov in a final attempt to diffuse the situation. The attempt will fail.
Summarizing it best, or perhaps just waking from a month-long nap, was the Estonian defense minister, Urmas Reinsalum who suddenly appears agitated to quite agitated:
- PUTIN IS PREPARING TO INVADE EASTERN UKRAINE: ESTONIAN DEF MIN
- UKRAINE EVENTS CLEARLY SHOW RUSSIA ONLY ACCEPTS FORCE: ESTONIAN DEF MIN
Hardly anyone is surprised there...
But perhaps the biggest news so far this morning is that the EU is considering visa bans to 13 Russian politicians and industry leaders, which according to Germany's Bild, include the headest hocnho of all: Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller. From Reuters:
Visa bans threatened by the European Union and United States should Crimea vote to join Russia in a referendum would target at least 13 Russian politicians and industry leaders including Vladimir Putin's close aides, Germany's Bild newspaper reported.
The visa ban list includes Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin, head of the presidential administration Sergei Ivanov, the secretary of the National Security Council Nikolai Patrushev, as well as several of Putin's advisors, Bild said in an advance copy of a report to be published on Saturday. The report cited diplomatic sources in Brussels and Washington.
Visa bans could also be slapped on the chief executive of Russian energy firm Gazprom Alexei Miller, and Igor Sechin, head of Russia's top crude oil producer Rosneft .
Remember, it is all about the gas. And if Europe "forces" Russia's hand by denying Gazprom free access, then Gazprom will have no choice but to retaliate. At that point all bets are off.
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The problem the US has is its now total lack of credibility and believability. They have played the global bully for so long, and engaged in criminal war practicies for so long .... that everybody is more likely to believe that the US is at fault in all things.
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But, but, but democracy and liberty and self-determination...
Inside the U.S. most people will first point to Bush's war crimes after 9-11.
Outside the U.S. most people will first point to Clinton's war crimes in Serbia in '99.
"
"EU Threatens Gazprom, Rosneft CEOs With Visa Ban"Hah! Putin says "Visa hell, I just use my Discover card.
Ukrainian Defense Minister was "agitated" cause he finally realized that all the US would do was things like restrict travel of Russian execs, not anything directly with Russian forces.
They always seem to have this image of US running to their rescue, then they always get let down when reality seeps in...
Visa ban? Well there's some brilliant foreign policy right there. Should stop 'em in their tracks.
Putin seems to be in control. Obama obviously not in control of foreign policy or State Dept. and still learning how to be "presidential" which leaves EU without leadership and vulnerable to uncertain outcomes if retaliation becomes contagious. Americans should question the wisdom of outside interests provoking events in Ukraine and demand an inquiry into how decisions where made leading up to this crisis. No doubt after the current administration is replaced after 2016, books will be written by former insiders, but it will be too late to make a difference today.
Well, I'm pleased that Tyler finally acknowledges that Russian forces may only enter East Ukraine - an act which can only be seen as acceptable given the fascist thug government in Kiev has outlawed the Russian language across the whole of Ukraine, and its obvious attempts to allow the EU - backed and supported by the USG - to annexe Ukraine.
But whilst "gas" is one obvious object of the ongoing disputes, I do not agree with Tyler's view: "Remember, it is all about the gas."
It's actually about more than that as I've posted recently. Western attempts to annexe Ukraine is also about opening its doors to NATO - a-la Cold War rerun - to fence in Russia for fallacious reasons.
If Merkel and the EU think they will achieve better energy security thru these tactics, they're mad. And as far as I can see, the EU has no authority to be involved in any of this at all. It is NOT an elected government. What we are seeing played out in the EU is yet another sharp move towards unelected fascist government. Somebody needs to take the slimeball Barroso aside and beat his brains in.
Transatlantic vs. Eurasia for domination and control of Eurasia's natural resources.
That's what this is all about, friend. Ukraine is the gateway drug to world domination, or Global TNW and suicide.
IME foreign policy of the US, UK and other western nations rarely has only one objective.
So, whilst I fully accept that energy is one of the objectives of this farce, western annexation of Ukraine for NATO to fence in Russia is another.
Don't forget about the annexation of Georgia by NATO. I think the Russian people may beg Putin to fight back. What do you think?
Um, yeah. But it's even bigger than that. It's not Gas that makes the "World go 'round", but MONEY:
What was Petro-Dollar and is running out of steam, is trying to front-run the Eurasians, in becoming the Energy-Dollar. If/When that happens, it Check-Mate, Game-Over for all, as you'll have "One Currency (issuer) to Rule Them All". You get a "Defacto NWO", i.e. Feudalism 2.0
p.s. And gold will become globally meaningless as "currency", since TPTB tell YOU what "money" is and isn't. Besides telling you everything else that you must/shall do. Even as a gold stacker, I lament this possibility.
Thanks Kirk, good points.
The monetization of force. Money is backed by force. If I drew a picture of a dollar in crayon and gave it to you in exchange for all the gold you own, you would accept my dollar or I'd kill you with the gun I have pointed at your head. That's what makes the world go'round.
Crimea is Russia bitchez!
Thanks TD, humongously funny headline! The false equivalence is truly bizarre.
When gold reaches $1600 make sure you have no money in the bank.
Putin has no alternatives if he wants to remain in power. The west will just continue to undermine his authority in the region. Soon, Russia will be at war with Ukraine, and the Queen is going to have to make a decision whether or not to join the fight. It only continues to escalate. I don't know where it stops.
RELEASE THE KRAKEN ()GOLD()
The you need our gas, you need our money standoff.
Meanwhile the Mr. Burns types that control the market tent their fingers and say "excellent" as they watch the price of their paper contracts explode higher.
In the end Russia needs the money more than Europe needs the gas. If this standoff was going on in October, Russia might have the upper hand. This entire thing has been manipulated to hide massive losses somewhere and make billions for the players that were properly positioned before it started.
Not impressed. The LA riots make this look like a picnic.
Is your portfolio war ready?
It looks like the neocons are going to get their fight.
Anyone who uses the term Neo-Con automatically gets a thumb down.
You think Obama is going to fight? Bwahahahaha Putin and everyone else in the world knows he won't. That's why Putin is going in. This is what happens when you have a coward for a POTUS.
American foreign policy is set by the CFR. The Queen obeys, or the Queen dies.
With respect to Gazprom.....
"...Meanwhile, the lower prices have forced Gazprom, which last year supplied a quarter of European gas, to renegotiate delivery prices to levels closer to those in the spot markets, where commodities are traded for cash for immediate delivery and where prices have dipped as low as half of those in Gazprom’s long-term contracts.[48] In addition, the Russian natural gas behemoth has begun to grant as much as a 10 percent discount on existing contracts.[49] Still, Gazprom saw its exports to Europe go down by 8 percent in 2012, to the lowest level in a decade.
Meanwhile, the sales of Gazprom’s main competitor in Europe, Norway’s majority-state-owned Statoil, are up
16 percent. The disparity is largely due to Statoil’s more flexible pricing that brought at least half of its contracts down to the spot market level.[50] For the first time, Statoil is catching up to Gazprom’s diminishing sales in Europe, exporting 88 billion cubic meters of natural gas as compared to Gazprom’s 113 billion cubic meters.[51] In the first nine months of last year, Gazprom’s profits fell by 12 percent compared to the same period of last year, and operational costs increased by 18 percent.[52] Overall, between 2008 and 2012, Gazprom lost 53 percent of its market value.[53]
Europe is becoming less hospitable legally and politically as well. Last year, the European Commission started an antimonopoly investigation of Gazprom, including possible price fixing. Should Gazprom be found in violation of antimonopoly laws—a very distinct possibility—it will have to open its pipelines to competitors, alter its “pricing formula,” in which the price of gas is linked to that of oil, and pay up to $14 billion in fines.[54] Further aggravating the situation, last September, Putin issued a decree prohibiting Gazprom from cooperating with the EU investigators."
http://www.aei.org/outlook/foreign-and-defense-policy/regional/europe/th...
Well, just have Europe get all of its energy needs from Statoil. I am sure they can pick up the slack no problem.
Have to find out what Statoil's production capacity and pipeline availability is. (wish the guys and gals at the Oil Drum were still "plugged in"...)
But the other point is that the decreasing purchases of Russian Gas from Gazprom have a extremely destabilizing effects on the Russian economy and political structure......
It looks to me that the "Ukraine Crisis" might be the beginning "ripple effect" of just this move....
An other source of Natural Gas for Europe would be via a proposed;
"The Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline (called the Friendship Pipeline by the governments involved and the Islamic gas pipeline by some Western sources[2]) is a proposed natural gas pipeline running from the Iranian-Qatari South Pars / North Dome Gas-Condensate field field towards Europe via Iran, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon to supply European customers as well as Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.[1] The pipeline is planned to be 3480 miles long and have a diameter of 56 inches.[1]"
Iran has a shitload of proven natural gas reserves and underutilized natural gas production capacity......
Interesting that due to the hostilities and political unrest in Syria this pipeline is not viable.......
"May you live in interesting times." RFK
edit... "Shitload" is defined as the quantities of proven reserves for Iran described per the IEA
http://www.eia.gov/countries/country-data.cfm?fips=ir
This isn't about "denying Gasprom free access.." this is about the price and the profit Russia is receiving....
"Yet doing nothing in the face of lower oil and gas revenues also carries enormous social and political risks. These include diminution, in real terms, of the already very modest expenditures on health care and education. With an effectively bankrupt state pension fund and a rapidly aging population, the Kremlin’s ability to prevent a full-blown pension crisis will require a huge influx of gold and hard currency reserves. At a time when soaring household utility prices (tariffs) are a leading source of dissatisfaction with the regime,[73] the diminishing energy revenues will endanger the regime’s ability to subsidize the costs.
"Doing nothing in the face of lower oil and gas revenues also carries enormous social and political risks."Similarly, smaller subsidies would also mean still-greater volatility in the North Caucasus, much of which is in the throes of a low-intensity fundamentalist uprising and plagued by unemployment, especially among young males. In Chechnya, Russia for years has placated its dictator, Ramzan Kadyrov, with subsidies amounting to roughly 90 percent of the republic’s budget, and no one can predict how Kadyrov will react when the flow of cash begins to dry up.[74]
Finally, among the most destabilizing consequences of the continuing dependence on oil and gas will be the Kremlin’s declining ability to secure the elites’ loyalty. Fiercely protective of their share of the politically apportioned riches of Russia’s state capitalism, powerful clans will squabble to secure the same share of a diminishing pie, in the process threatening the stability of the regime. “Putin’s unchallenged power” rests on a tripartite foundation: “oil and gas money, the Federal Security Service, and television,” a Russian observer noted last December.[75"'
Looks to me like Putin may decide to take Machiavelli advice.....
"...There is no avoiding war; it can only be postponed to the advantage of others."
Russia can take Ukraine if they want it and in doing so secure the entire Caucasus region and their warm water ports. The US/EU retaliation could cause major repercussions from Russia, as in invading a US ally. What Russia does is definitely the key to bringing in a OWG. And we know the US can't stand for much longer with all the spending.
At this point in time, the Transatlantic group needs war to create more debt. Debt feeds the CB monster in Basel. Eurasia doesn't need war, or war debt, for growth, and this is a threat to the Trany group.
Markets anticipate a NATO victory in Eurasia.
And in a "free market economy" the markets are always right.....lol
OH No! Two people get banned from travel. Seems like a pretty damn good bargain for Putin. One country for a couple of Visa bans. He's all-in for sure.
Do you understand the role that Gazprom and Europe's Natural Gas Supply has in this drama??????
Do you understand that one of the people banned is the CEO of Gasprom.......
But this debt bubble can't go on forever. Eurasia will retaliate. And they win by way of actual assets. Gold/oil/nat gas instead of thin air.
Vineyard of the Saker:
Ukrainian Military Capabilities
http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/
Lots of Russians in London, they better not feel "threatened" or Russia will "protect" them.
It's not a secret that Russia never recovered from their last currency crisis, so they desperately need the EU gas money. The cannot afford any problems with that cash flow. Is Russia broke again?
Stupid EU politicians.
Are they in a contest with Kerry to see who can be the most inept?
Travel restrictions can, very easily, be applied to EU apparatchics, IMF meddlers, EU banksters, US war mongers and anybody else who think there is an opportunity to make a fast buck at the expense of the general population.
I sincerely hope that Putin gives them all a really good, thoroughly deserved drubbing.
Nice job Asst Sec of State Victoria (Nuland) Nudleman Kagan. You finally got the poor defenseless vulnerable people killing eachother! Well done! Now, what's your next move you little adorable sweetie?