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What Happens After Sunday's Crimea Referendum Vote?
Given this morning's UN vote declaring the Crimea referendum invalid (and Russia's obvious veto - along with China's abstention), and on the heels of Lavrov's words Friday that Russia would decide how to respond to the Crimean vote after the referendum had been held, it is thought-provoking to consider Putin's options given the vote's outcome is a near-certainty voting in favor of accession to the Russian Federation (especially in light of this morning's images across Crimea). Europe's Council on Foreign Relations notes "not knowing Vladimir Putin’s strategy makes it hard for Europe and the West to come up with meaningful and workable responses. In a way, we are all speculating and trying to get a glimpse into Putin’s soul. The five points below attempt to reinforce or refute some aspects of the conventional wisdom that has emerged from all this speculation."
1. Has Putin always wanted to invade Crimea?
Russian diplomats (who probably hate their jobs these days) have made elaborate attempts to demonstrate that no international law has been broken in Crimea. But the breach is blatant and the pretext used to justify invasion is thinner than thin – and Moscow knows it.
It is true that some hawkish groups in Moscow probably could not care less about international law. They would approve of any means to reunify Slavic lands. However, the bulk of the establishment has in fact always maintained a different position. For example, the Russian foreign ministry has traditionally adhered to a rigidly legalistic view of world affairs: in effect, post-1945 international law, with its strict emphasis on state sovereignty, non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries, and the inviolability of borders. Newer and softer concepts, such as the responsibility to protect, are alien to them.
Putin himself has always passionately belonged to that legalistic camp, as evidenced by his positions on Libya, on Syria, and on multiple other issues. Therefore, deciding to invade Crimea cannot have been easy for him. He must consider that something extremely important is at stake. The corollary is that in defending his conception of what is at stake, he may well be ready to go further than many of us assume.
2. Is Putin out of touch with reality?
Angela Merkel’s statement that Putin is out of touch with reality, which was leaked to the New York Times, gave rise to a considerable amount of conjecture and comment. Some people concluded that Putin has gone mad. In fact, while he may be living in his own version of reality, it looks like Putin’s world has actually been around for a long time.
Putin seems to sincerely believe that dangerous extremist groups have taken power in Kiev. He may genuinely not realise that the events in Kiev represented a classic popular revolution. As pointed out by Fiona Hill, it is possible that the whole concept of popular revolutions is alien to Putin. In the late 1980s and early 1990s, when Russia was having its own revolution, Putin was not there – he was serving the KGB in Dresden. He did not personally witness the fact that a massive number of people were involved in the overthrow of the Soviet Union. His being abroad for these pivotal events, as well as his KGB schooling and worldview, may have made it easy for him to see the collapse of the Soviet Union as the result of a conspiracy by a few combined with betrayal by others.
Similarly, Putin may see current events in Ukraine as a conspiracy by the West, which was definitely his view of the Orange revolution of 2004. Or he may see the situation as the result of recklessness: actions along the same lines as Western involvement in Libya and Syria. As Putin sees it, in both places the West has supported marginal and extremist groups against legitimate leaders, in a naïve hope that democracy will somehow take root in the ruins of the old regimes. It may well be that he saw the West applying the same logic to Ukraine and decided that he could not allow anything of the kind to happen in Ukraine.
Added to this, he likely feels a sense of betrayal over the West’s (as he sees it) geopolitical incursion into Ukraine, and over the West’s failure (as he sees it) to support Viktor Yanukovych after the agreement of February 21. All this comes together to form the reality in which Putin lives.
This means that what we are seeing as Putin’s revisionism may still be inspired largely by his conservatism. Also, much of his reality is indeed based on false premises. But understanding this does not make it easier to set the record straight and make Putin see sense – as multiple Western interlocutors have by now discovered.
3. Does Putin want to use Crimea as leverage over Ukraine?
Some analysts assume that Russia will stop short of incorporating Crimea, but will instead keep it in a Transnistria-style legal limbo in order to use it as leverage over Kiev. It seems likely that obtaining leverage over all of Ukraine, as opposed to just Crimea, is Moscow’s real goal. But it is hard to predict exactly what Moscow will see as sufficient and reliable leverage.
The government that came to power in Kiev in late February is weak. Contrary to Moscow’s claims, it is not illegitimate – it is as legitimate as it can be under the circumstances. However, it still does not represent the whole of society in the ways that a government should. In theory, it would have been easy for Moscow to gain leverage over the new government by using a mixture of legitimate and more shady means. But Moscow did not even make the attempt.
By now, it is unclear just how much the “Transnistrianisation” of Crimea would add to Moscow’s leverage. Kiev is now considerably less amenable to making a deal with Moscow than it would have been less than a month ago. Many in the nationalist camp may be secretly relieved to see Crimea go, taking with it its two million Russian voters and Russian base.
As recently as a week or so ago, Russia could probably have counted on the West to put pressure on Kiev. The West is terrified by what Moscow is doing and it does not know how to respond. So, many would have been relieved if, instead of annexing Crimea, Russia stopped at “Transnistrianisation”. The West would have been ready to put pressure on Kiev to accept Moscow’s conditions – thereby, of course, contributing to prolonged bad governance in Ukraine and, consequently, to more trouble down the road. But Moscow did not try to use the West either – and now it could be too late for that as well. The build-up of Russian troops at Ukraine’s borders has probably made the West more determined to counter Russia and less likely to go for unholy compromises. And, likewise, the massing of troops could indicate that Moscow is not interested in making use of Western pressure. The sort of control over Kiev that the Kremlin has in mind may be of a much harder sort than mere co-option and coercion.
4. Is Putin acting only in response to domestic pressures?
Some analysts claim that the whole Crimea affair was begun in order to impress the domestic public, who have increasingly fallen out of love with Putin. Others, even those who do not share that interpretation, claim that Putin cannot back down because of domestic pressures. It is true that the invasion has boosted Putin’s ratings. And the domestic media-propaganda machine has created a powerful momentum for annexation, which has the support of many in Russian society. But it is still hard to believe that any of this constitutes serious limitations of action for Putin, especially given that he does not have to face the ballot box any time soon.
Russian society has no capacity for an informed and critical discussion about foreign policy. The state-controlled media is masterful in justifying the regime’s actions, whatever they may be. Portraying a climb-down as a victory would be easy. (This kind of method is described well in an old Soviet joke about a 100-metre race between Ronald Reagan and Leonid Brezhnev: after Reagan’s win, the Soviet news agency reported that “in yesterday’s race between the heads of state the General Secretary of the Communist Party of the USSR achieved a precious second place. The president of the Imperialist United States finished second-last.”)
In short, for the moment at least, Putin is in no way hostage to his domestic constituency. But that does not mean that he will want to de-escalate or back down.
5. Will sanctions stop Putin?
Different people see different logic behind Western sanctions on Russia. Some hope that sanctions, or the threat of them, will force Moscow to back down. Others hope that sanctions will alienate Russian elites from Putin and leave him with little domestic support. Others simply believe that people who were instrumental in acting against sovereignty and territorial integrity deserve to be punished. And some look at the situation from a long-term perspective and think that sanctions should be applied to erode the economic foundations of an increasingly aggressive regime.
Much of this reasoning seems accurate and justified. But even so, the calculation that sanctions will make Putin reverse course does not ring true. Ever since the domestic protests of 2011-2012, Putin has lost trust in the members of his elite who keep their money in the West and so are vulnerable to Western pressures. Losing their support, therefore, does not really matter to him. They have no leverage over him. In any case, “repatriating money” has been an unofficial policy for quite a while.
Sanctions, as well as Putin’s growing alienation from Russian elites, may well have effects in the medium term. But they will not stop Putin on Sunday or in the days ahead. Even so, this does not mean that sanctions are futile or unnecessary – especially because it seems more and more likely that we are now facing a longer-term battle between Russia and the West.
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"[Putin] may genuinely not realise that the events in Kiev represented a classic popular revolution." Hah! Organized and financed by the US State Department and the CIA! It's the same playbook that the USA has been using to overthrow governments since the 1950's.
Putin can export energy to the East via China unimpeded. To the West, Ukraine is needed. In addition, there can't be a global currency reset or petro dollar realignment without the delivery channels secured.
That's my take on Putin's strategy in Ukraine.
Maybe Uncle Warren has purchased a stake in the Trans Siberian railroad ?
His Leader ObiewanKohnObie Squirts Many Single Serve Ketchup Packages in the Sand
Another steaming pile of weekend neocon crap.
This mess was all caused by US Gov psychopaths and they consider Putin mad for not going along.
I don't think God could make people as stupid as those running the US and those writing this shit.
I got as far as "Therefore, deciding to invade Crimea cannot have been easy for him.", thought WTF!? and scrolled down here to see if it was just me. Apparently not. Whew!
For example, the Russian foreign ministry has traditionally adhered to a rigidly legalistic view of world affairs: in effect, post-1945 international law, with its strict emphasis on state sovereignty, non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries, and the inviolability of borders. Newer and softer concepts, such as the responsibility to protect, are alien to them.
This author must know anything about the Soviet Union. Remember Hungary, Afghanistan and Czechoslovakia? I knew this article stunk at that point. Tyler, most of your content is good. This is crap.
Uh, the bear has been all about the law when we break it, but forgets when they do. Sound familiar? Evidently not to the OP, but gee, it's been pretty obvious.
I find this just fucking bizarre.
I hope this abomination of an 'article' was published only for regulatory reasons,
i.e. they have to give both sides in order to hold on to some publishing license.
Fairness Doctrine redux? Let's hope not.
Perhaps its operating under the "Fareness Doctrine", i.e. pay a fare and get your work published on Zero Hedge.
I am Chumbawamba.
Is this the European wing of the us council on Foreign Relations? Reads like that. I stopped wasting my time with this bullsh!t after I read that Putin was "out of touch with reality". Tyler, publishing conflicting viewpoints is good, when they are well argued, but you do ZH no favor by publishing such crap that is factually wrong and intellectually dishonest to the hilt.
Chumba, I've enjoyed your work in my brief tenure here. Gotta say, I never considered that angle. You're in a position to know. Seen hedgeless lately?
GW told me I may have been "shadow banned" from here. But, you can see me, is it that selective?
I'll be back in a sec, gotta get my tinfoil hat;)
It makes me sad and angry that in each of the instances you mention, the US has been the agent provocateur that started the shit-show to begin with. That said, Russia (then USSR) royally fucked up in Afghanistan. Putin may be a tyrant, but he's not stupid. Wish I could say the same for Barry & Kerry.
@ acetinker
Correct, European Council Of Foreign Relations, WTF is that.
That's as far as I got, before realising it was just more bullshit propaganda.
So, if the "invasion" of Ukraine is a crime, what do you call the overthrow of a legitimate government you m----f--krs.
Very well put, Anusocracy.
Putin is a very saavy geo-politician and is holding far more cards than the author of this article enumerates... and, unlike the neo-cons, he seldom makes major mistakes.
After watching him work the Syrian and Gerogian situations I would characterize Putin as a very good counter puncher ;ie, he likes to let his opponent make the first move.
I suspect he is one hell of a poker player.
BTW, how is that 'Project For A New American Century' thingy working out?
The US is run by emotional thinking ivy league grads stuffed to the gills with hubris.
Russia and Putin don't have that problem.
What knowest thou of Judo? (Of which, Putin holds a black belt!)
>>> how is that 'Project For A New American Century' thingy working out?
The first "American Century", the Twentieth, coincided with unprecedented worldwide conflict and violent death.
Personally, I think we can all do without the another "American Century".
Why did the Tylers post this shitty article aka State Dept propaganda. We can get that shit anywhere in the western media. F that!
To help folks know their enemy and the propoganda they're using to push their agenda.
Pan-slavism. The motivating force behind Russian policy 100 years before Putin was born. The reason Russia came to the aid of Serbia in 1914 and started WWI. The pan-slavic flag from 1848 is identical to the current Russian flag. The more things change the more they stay the same.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pan-Slavism
Blood is thicker than water. Blood is thicker than ketchup. Blood is thicker than lurch's skull. Don't expect Putin to behave logically or predictably in this crisis.
Maybe Putin got tired of watching the US meddle in everyone's affairs and saw this opportunity, provided by the western power's stupidity, as a way to humiliate them as well as taking back part of the former USSR.
Did anyone explain to the world that while Europes leaders claim to support sanctions against Russia and support of helping Ukraine join the EU/NATO, that in many of these Euro Countires citizens never voted to join the Euro themselves and recent polls show many Countries (Holland, UK) are ready to bailout of the Euro?
UK is not in the Euro Zone.
Presumably Tahoe Billy meant the European Union.
Pan-slavism pan-smavism, hardly. Blood is not thicker than our programming, just one aspect of it.
If that were the case, what holds the US together when the idea it was based on effectively disappeared four score and seven years after it was founded and there is no common blood?
Dupery is thicker than blood? I think so.
Don't think so, because the other country he named - Holland - is in the European Union.
@seb
Fortunately for us the politicians who wanted to join were known to be either (1) stupid, (2 ) crooked, (3) perverted or all three.
People seem to forget that Russia had no problem moving in with tanks and ships to subdue Georgian separatists.
I don't think Crimea or Eastern Ukraine - or all of Ukraine - will be any different.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_South_Ossetia_war
Georgia invasion was a much smaller geographic area than Eastern Ukraine?
Yes, butthere was a choce point a pass (I don't recall the name).
Putin is an Orthodox Christian. After a while, Christians get tired of being F over by non-Christians. He and Russia were the only ones to come to the aid of Syrians and Syrian Christians being murdered by the State Dept., Obama, McCain, Clintons and Kerry - Saudi backed Al Qeada "rebels."
The people F-ing over the Ukrainians and Russian Ukrianians - at the top are not Christians.
Putin was prepared to turn the other cheek for Obama but then, Putin realised, specifically, which cheek Obama was interested in so, he invaded Crimea just to get the taste out of his mouth!
The core link between Serbia and Russia is Orthodox Christianity, not pan-Slavism.
Russians are perfectly happy to kill large numbers of Catholic Poles, who can be lumped into the general category of Godless Western Menace (i.e. with Germany, France, Sweden, Britain).
Putin is a serious player. He knows exactly what he's dealing with re: the neocon powers behind the throne and their child puppets. Fuck with this guy and there WILL be a serious price to be paid. American global hegemony is a fucking fantasy and these neocon sociopaths refuse to accept it. They may well get all of us killed. FUCK THEM!
+1 million
Pipe thru Belarus, cut deal with Lithuania, pump out of Kaliningrad. Or just pipe thru Baltic.
The train lines in Lithuania connect Vilnius to St. Petersburg, not Estonia. The old contacts to the Soviet Union in Lithuania run very very deep. Wouldn't take much to get them back on side for a bit of Russian dosh, me thinks, after the EU structural fund sugar daddy money runs out.
Sure take years and tons of bucks to build infrastrucure for a country that needs cash RIGHT NOW. Great plan. Not that trying to take away both of Russia's warm water naval bases in dickery by us was that smart either. Hopefully you fools will go over there and fight each other, and leave me out of it. I don't approve of the actions of ANY government inolved here.
Build all the pipelines you want, it's still Russia's LNG and just because you have electricity doesn't mean you have grub in the fridge.
@Don +1
Pierre Omidyar co-funded Ukraine revolution groups with US government, documents show
George Soros’ Giant Globalist Footprint in Ukraine’s Turmoil@nope
Yup
Russian Troops Seize Gas Plant Beyond Crimean Border, Ukraine SaysSnowden's pal Glenn Greenwald works for Omidar. Snowden needs new friends or he is an op. Greenwald is not to be trusted.
Unclassic, unpopular revolutions are those the USA and CIA do not fund or subversively organize. Classic and popular = US funded.
Much like organic and homegrown uprisings all originate and are conducted by CIA operatives, with US support being promoted by the MSM at white house and IRS direction (do it or else, and shut up about facts!)
cough.
"The exceptional, indispensable, arrogant, self-righteous United States government does not need to ask anyone. Washington speaks not merely for itself. Washington represents the country chosen by history (and the neoconservatives) to speak not merely for itself, but for the entire world."
See...when you're the Chosen Ones, you can do what you want.
"Putin may see current events in Ukraine as a conspiracy by the West, which was definitely his view of the Orange revolution of 2004. Or he may see the situation as the result of recklessness: actions along the same lines as Western involvement in Libya and Syria. As Putin sees it, in both places the West has supported marginal and extremist groups against legitimate leaders, in a naïve hope that democracy will somehow take root in the ruins of the old regimes. It may well be that he saw the West applying the same logic to Ukraine and decided that he could not allow anything of the kind to happen in Ukraine.
Added to this, he likely feels a sense of betrayal over the West’s (as he sees it) geopolitical incursion into Ukraine, and over the West’s failure (as he sees it) to support Viktor Yanukovych after the agreement of February 21. All this comes together to form the reality in which Putin lives. "
Feb 21 agreement was made and witnessed by French, EU (Polish) and German representatives. Clearly it left Yanukovych in power. They then claim legitimacy in the subsequent overthrow. Pick one, both cannot be legitimate stances. ZH has pointed out the hypocracy time and again from the US and Western nations. I am disgusted with this crew.
It is clear to me that Crimea represents a red-line for Russia and Putin. He has been clear about that and has backed up everything he has said with the very credible threat of force but very little actual force. I can see one and only one actor in this group that is acting in their national interests with consistency. And it sure as fuck ain't Barry.
The US could give a Foch about spreading democracy. Its all about resources. Always has been, even more now since the resources are getting scarce.
It is about resources but the motivation for that is the irrational desire for absolute control.
In the animal world, control of resources means improved survival.
@Anusocracy
You really hit the nail on the head with that one. It's an old plan and Putin knows this "It seems that the West simply does not like Putin. He is a huge obstacle who prevents them from achieving global hegemony.".
Exactly. Putin understands deep in his gut what is going on.... an assault against Russia. Ukraine is a zionist footstool, a platform to attack Russia. However, the Nuland led idiots did not expect his blocking move by annexing Crimea, hence their frustation and teeth gnashing. Putin no more cares about their opinion than he cares about the last dump he flushed down the toilet.
Good for Putin - Let the Russian people dump their treasure and human capital in another corrupted, broke, uncontrollable state.
- Let me know how that works out for ya ...
Just in case WWIII breaks out, and it is the end of the world as we know it, you don't want to miss out on the indescribable beauty of this music video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xpLOnm7p2sA
A Timeline of CIA Atrocities
By Steve Kangas
The following timeline describes just a few of the hundreds of atrocities and crimes committed by the CIA.
CIA operations follow the same recurring script. First, American business interests abroad are threatened by a popular or democratically elected leader. The people support their leader because he intends to conduct land reform, strengthen unions, redistribute wealth, nationalize foreign-owned industry, and regulate business to protect workers, consumers and the environment. So, on behalf of American business, and often with their help, the CIA mobilizes the opposition. First it identifies right-wing groups within the country (usually the military), and offers them a deal: "We'll put you in power if you maintain a favorable business climate for us." The Agency then hires, trains and works with them to overthrow the existing government (usually a democracy). It uses every trick in the book: propaganda, stuffed ballot boxes, purchased elections, extortion, blackmail, sexual intrigue, false stories about opponents in the local media, infiltration and disruption of opposing political parties, kidnapping, beating, torture, intimidation, economic sabotage, death squads and even assassination. These efforts culminate in a military coup, which installs a right-wing dictator. The CIA trains the dictator’s security apparatus to crack down on the traditional enemies of big business, using interrogation, torture and murder. The victims are said to be "communists," but almost always they are just peasants, liberals, moderates, labor union leaders, political opponents and advocates of free speech and democracy. Widespread human rights abuses follow.
This scenario has been repeated so many times that the CIA actually teaches it in a special school, the notorious "School of the Americas." (It opened in Panama but later moved to Fort Benning, Georgia.) Critics have nicknamed it the "School of the Dictators" and "School of the Assassins." Here, the CIA trains Latin American military officers how to conduct coups, including the use of interrogation, torture and murder.
The Association for Responsible Dissent estimates that by 1987, 6 million people had died as a result of CIA covert operations. (2) Former State Department official William Blum correctly calls this an "American Holocaust."
The CIA justifies these actions as part of its war against communism. But most coups do not involve a communist threat. Unlucky nations are targeted for a wide variety of reasons: not only threats to American business interests abroad, but also liberal or even moderate social reforms, political instability, the unwillingness of a leader to carry out Washington’s dictates, and declarations of neutrality in the Cold War. Indeed, nothing has infuriated CIA Directors quite like a nation’s desire to stay out of the Cold War.
The ironic thing about all this intervention is that it frequently fails to achieve American objectives. Often the newly installed dictator grows comfortable with the security apparatus the CIA has built for him. He becomes an expert at running a police state. And because the dictator knows he cannot be overthrown, he becomes independent and defiant of Washington's will. The CIA then finds it cannot overthrow him, because the police and military are under the dictator's control, afraid to cooperate with American spies for fear of torture and execution. The only two options for the U.S at this point are impotence or war. Examples of this "boomerang effect" include the Shah of Iran, General Noriega and Saddam Hussein. The boomerang effect also explains why the CIA has proven highly successful at overthrowing democracies, but a wretched failure at overthrowing dictatorships.
The following timeline should confirm that the CIA as we know it should be abolished and replaced by a true information-gathering and analysis organization. The CIA cannot be reformed — it is institutionally and culturally corrupt.
1929
The culture we lost — Secretary of State Henry Stimson refuses to endorse a code-breaking operation, saying, "Gentlemen do not read each other’s mail."
1941
COI created — In preparation for World War II, President Roosevelt creates the Office of Coordinator of Information (COI). General William "Wild Bill" Donovan heads the new intelligence service.
1942
OSS created — Roosevelt restructures COI into something more suitable for covert action, the Office of Strategic Services (OSS). Donovan recruits so many of the nation’s rich and powerful that eventually people joke that "OSS" stands for "Oh, so social!" or "Oh, such snobs!"
1943
Italy — Donovan recruits the Catholic Church in Rome to be the center of Anglo-American spy operations in Fascist Italy. This would prove to be one of America’s most enduring intelligence alliances in the Cold War.
1945
OSS is abolished — The remaining American information agencies cease covert actions and return to harmless information gathering and analysis.
Operation PAPERCLIP – While other American agencies are hunting down Nazi war criminals for arrest, the U.S. intelligence community is smuggling them into America, unpunished, for their use against the Soviets. The most important of these is Reinhard Gehlen, Hitler’s master spy who had built up an intelligence network in the Soviet Union. With full U.S. blessing, he creates the "Gehlen Organization," a band of refugee Nazi spies who reactivate their networks in Russia. These include SS intelligence officers Alfred Six and Emil Augsburg (who massacred Jews in the Holocaust), Klaus Barbie (the "Butcher of Lyon"), Otto von Bolschwing (the Holocaust mastermind who worked with Eichmann) and SS Colonel Otto Skorzeny (a personal friend of Hitler’s). The Gehlen Organization supplies the U.S. with its only intelligence on the Soviet Union for the next ten years, serving as a bridge between the abolishment of the OSS and the creation of the CIA. However, much of the "intelligence" the former Nazis provide is bogus. Gehlen inflates Soviet military capabilities at a time when Russia is still rebuilding its devastated society, in order to inflate his own importance to the Americans (who might otherwise punish him). In 1948, Gehlen almost convinces the Americans that war is imminent, and the West should make a preemptive strike. In the 50s he produces a fictitious "missile gap." To make matters worse, the Russians have thoroughly penetrated the Gehlen Organization with double agents, undermining the very American security that Gehlen was supposed to protect.
Read further here.
David Rockfeller was an OSS agent during WW2. This is even in his biography.
You can fool most of the people most of the time
but not all of the people all of the time
I know, the person who wrote this article isn't in reality. Ukraine was overthrown with the help of the US, and it's intelligence services. They also allowed the hard right aka fascists groups that are racists as hell and anti-semites to get into power. And they truly think that Putin was going to allow the US to creep up to it's border with a country that will be in NATO. It's exactly the same thing that happened in the Cuban missile crisis when the USSR at the time was putting nukes on the Island of communist Cuba and the US blockaded the island refusing the Russian ships from landing (international waters and soverign nation). Because that was the red line for the US and Ukraine is the red line for Russia.
Russia is going to move into the south and the east in order to make the west ukraine landlocked and a money pit. They know eventually we will have to continue to fund big for the west but it won't help. So we either fight Russia or turn tail and let Ukraine fall. You have to also ask if the president of the US is in his right mind to do such a provocative thing to essentially pick a fight with another major nuclear power.
They will only do that if they intend to make an almost immediate massed nuclear attack on Russia, China and almost certainly DPRK and probably Pakistan as well.
I do not think that's planned, but unfortunately it actually could be ... I'll explain.
The thing that's personally always deeply bothered me, ever since the mid-1990s when the MIC and Pentagon began to talk of ABM missile-shield deployment, and it became commonplace MSM propaganda fodder, was the extreme dangers involved in the generation of babies born from about 1985 forwards, would grow up within this ludicrous technocratic voodoo, and would naturally actually come to believe that a multi-layered ABM missile shield would actually work.
Having studied at length for years why an ABM system definitely won't work, within any realistic aggressive nuclear attack or nuclear strike response situation, the problem is that the 20 and 30 something idiots in the MIC, military and Govt agencies, plus numerous politicians, don't know that it has zero chance of working. I could undermine it and severely degrade it in about two minutes flat if I had command of the Russian arsenal, and I could totally demolish it in about 20 minutes.
And Vlad knows this, Beijing knows it too, as does the DPRK.
But I don't think goofy in the Oval Office knows it, nor almost anyone in Washington DC, in general, or at NATO Head quarters, nor in the Euro capitals knows this. They have bought the koolaide, and think they can ride it out and win a nuclear confrontation. And as more years pass this fatal grand delusion simply gets stronger and their stunning hubris more and more extreme with it, as their stupidity plumbs new depths. They can not and most certainly will not, 'ride it out'.
They will all be radioactive charcoal.
The ABM missile-shield concept is one of the most dangerous and insidious notions ever to see the light of day and the SM3 DDGs cuising off coastal regions of other nuclear powers, and European and East Asian missile shields, are the most dangerous unrecognised developments the world has seen.
Almost no one realizes how dangerous the whole concept is, and that's what makes it so insidious and potentially fatal to the entire civilized world. At least the Russians actually seem to understand that S300, S400 and S500 SAMs will be totally useless against nuclear weapons. Unfortunately, in the West, the MIC and Pentagon have sparred no expense making propaganda that endlessly tries to convince the 'free-world' that ABM missile defenses can completely stop a nuclear attack in its tracts.
No it can't - EVER!
It's a terrifically diabolical lie, and buying into it, and then acting on that belief that it works, will surely destroy all of us. And every year there are more and more people in the west who believe it'll actually work. They have no idea that it will fail miserably, and there's not even any chance that it won't completely fail. Hence we have these warmongering cretins all over Washington DC and in the European Capital's moronosphere.
Now take this one board. Vlad and many Russian leaders before him said this was precisely the danger that would evolve, and now they can see that it has evolved, as expected.
Vlad knows all of that ... too.
See the problem?
And this is why it worries me for about the past ~20 years, because I know what someone in Vlad's role must and will eventually do about this. It is why Putin is so damned focused and serious while Commander Clownshoes in the White House thinks he rules the world, that he's got it all covered.
My sentiments exactly. This idiotic drama has gone on long enough.
If the people vote for or against Russia, that is called democracy!
Scary stuff for politicians.
Did US Secretary of State John Kerry ask you before he delivered an all or nothing ultimatum to Russia? Did he ask Congress? Did he ask the countries of western and eastern Europe–NATO members who Kerry has committed to whatever the consequences will be of Washington’s inflexible, arrogant, aggressive provocation of Russia, a well-armed nuclear power? Did Kerry ask Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, New Zealand, Australia, Canada, Mexico, South America, Africa, China, Central Asia, all of whom would be adversely affected by a world war provoked by the crazed criminals in Washington?
No.
He did not.
The exceptional, indispensable, arrogant, self-righteous United States government does not need to ask anyone. Washington speaks not merely for itself. Washington represents the country chosen by history (and the neoconservatives) to speak not merely for itself, but for the entire world.
Whatever Washington says is truth. Whatever Washington does is legal, in accordance with both domestic and international law. When Washington invades countries and destroys them, sends in drones and missiles, blows up people attending weddings, funerals and children’s soccer games, Washington is practicing human rights and bringing democracy to the people. Whenever a country tries to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity, the country is engaging in terrorism, al-Qaeda connections, human rights violations, and suppressing democracy.
http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2014/03/14/world-war-1-paul-craig-robert...
And that, lads and lassies is from a gentleman who used to be Editor of the Wall Street Journal. A true olde school conservative of the "mind your own fucking business" tradition
Gotta "save" the dollar...I mean help the Zionists build their global banking/police state. The US will be turned into a nature park with humans running wild and naked. Drones will feed those deemed worth feeding.
will there still be NFL & AmericanIdol ?
The USSA is getting more and more desperate defending the US Dollar world currency fiat.
A weird False Flag event will occur soon...the US Dollar cannot be allowed to continue to lose ground.
PCR sure sounds like he knows what he is talking about, but after seeing his pictures with his cats I do have to wonder if the toxoplasmosis parasite has muddled his brain.
A remarkably stunning comment! I cannot recall ever seeing here another comment that was such a colossal failure of an attempt at wit by the witless.
His cats? That's really the best you could come up with?
No you don't. You don't wonder anything at all. You accept what you're told without thinking because it's the path of least resistance. That much is clear.
Your ridiculous utterance is not even unclever. It is anticlever, unable even to ascend to the level of idiocy which could have easily been attained simply by calling him a commie.
What I wonder is what prompted this feeble attempt at wit. I can only surmise that you accidentally discovered yourself lost in thought and became disoriented by the unfamiliar terrain.
It was more observation than joke. Who takes pictures with their cats for their PR photo when they want to be taken seriously about their views on world affairs?
Crazy cat ladies, that's who.
Good point, and still funny as hell. People oughta lighten up.
we are sheeps not cats
Putin has supported legal whata what? This is the same man he amends the constitution of his country however he sees fit. Makes himself Prime Minister and then may as well have declared himself King.
His invasion of Crimea was a rash move because while he was preoccupied with his precious olympics (his so-called crowning achievement) he missed out on his puppet yanukovich getting kicked out by a population fed up with Russian rule. Ukrainians were mass exterminated by the Russians in the early 1900s and would much prefer their future to be in Europe. In the 90s Poland and Ukraine had approximately equal economies, Poland joined the EU. Now Poland is a competitive Western country whereas Ukraine is third world and poor. I was there in 2012, both Ukraine and Poland. The differences are astonishing. Ukraine does not want a future with Russia.
Putin probably does believe that it's a conspiracy but it isn't. This is also a man who has not heard a contrarian view in a decade. He has effectively wiped out and arrested all investigative journalism, protesters get shoved into busses in the streets by OMON (Russian SWAT) and has arrested and beaten pretty much all opposition. He is living in his own world. Merkel is correct.
While this is undoubtedly true, it is also true that the majority of the people in parts of Ukraine are Russian by descent or by affiliation. You can't dictate for a nation to stay together, that has been seen countless times. Let this be done by the vote, that is the way to do that, and split the country, if that is the wish.
It was Russia that gave asylum to Snowdon, when everyone else were just too afraid of the US!
The american government has killed more people since the end of the second world war, than Russia has done, there is not doubt about that. So be careful what you wish for.
Under Stalin's rule (ended 1953) it is approximated 60 million people died in the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union gave just as many weapons and started proxy wars as the U.S during the Cold War. We had Vietnam, they had Afghanistan. You think they didn't provide military support for the Vietcong?
There are people of Russian descent all over the former Soviet Union. Does that mean that Russia can disrespect the territorial integrity of all of those countries to "protect" Russians? Russians are now in more danger than they ever were, because there will be obvious blowback. You don't just invade a country. Now Ukrainians truly are scared of the Russians and witchhunts may ensue. Russians have never been in danger in Ukraine before, why are they all of a sudden? Russia invaded without any proof of there having been any danger to Russians. When I look at videos of the Maidan, (Youtube: Khodorkovsky at the Maidan) you will see that there are no Neo fascists there. Just bullshit RT, Putin, and Russian propoganda. Now Russia is bussing in agitators over the borders into these cities and stirring up massive shit all over East Ukraine. Thanks to some botoxed midget pedophile , a country may now break out in Civil War.
So many falshoods its not even worth the time pointing them out.
Hope they pay you for this tripe , otherwise you may need medicating.
"You don't just invade a country"
You are so correct. --- but do you see a tiny bit of irony in that statement?
I am not in favour of the Russians or the Americans, but as long as we have these evils, let's just have a bit on both side of the scale, just to retain some sort of balance.
If you ever want to know the Kremlin stance watch RT,
propaganda at its best, it really is good.
Also, the so called vote is being overseen by Russians with heavy firepower. No debates are allowed, and the only television allowed is Russian Channel 1 propoganda. This is by no means a free vote. Not to mentioned the votes will be counted in Moscow. Remember Putin's re-election campaign?
The only thing that matters is who counts the votes. Ruskis will be doing that one.
remember George Bush's election . Florida
Or his next one overseen by Diebold in Ohio.
Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama all are agency men. All Ivy League all NWO stooges.
Gibberish.
The shit, that masqueraded for the ruler of Ukraine deserve to be shot! He was lucky to escape with his life. If a people can achieve that, unarmed, they deserve to sort their own future out. What better way than by a vote?.
This, by the way, applies equally to Russia, oh, and, to the USA, as well.!
It is the writing on the wall!
Do you want to join the Russian federation now or later ?
They are the two boxes of choice on the ballot paper.
How many presidential terms were allowed in Russia. Constitutionally it was two,
this is Putins third term. You downvoters are batting for the wrong side.
Your statement is indicitive of the main problem...reducing it to "our team (YAY!)" and "their team (Nay!)".
Fucking flag-wavers...
How much or my tax dollars are they paying you to troll? Get a job!
You think Amerika has elections? I think the last real election might have been Reagans two terms. They may have been fakes as well.
Better worry about your country.
He might as well have been mayor of NYC ...
Well, if your litmus test is votes being overseen by thugs with guns and who then counts the votes, then the President of Ukraine of was never impeached (regardless of constitutional prcideures that weren't followed).
Iraq democracy must be the best that US achieve in this last decade
@eatyourcorn
I followed your conversation last night. I can sympathize with your viepoint. My wife's family is from Belarus and they are so happy to be here and they know they have it much better here than they did there so they do not complain about the stuff I am always ranting about. I get it. With that said their biggest fear is that this place will end up like where they fled from.
How many times has Obamacare been amended without congressional approval? How many countries has the U.S invaded without congressional approval? It's the same shit here. We just have not slipped as far down the slope as they have. But give it time. You should focus more on the direction this country is heading and less on how they stack up against each other.
Look I won't disagree that the U.S has been declining. The U.S and Russia are not even in the same ballpark though. They just can't be compared. In terms of economic and social freedom. I don't believe that the U.S will ever decline to anything nearly as bad as Russia, ever. Obviously, our country is not perfect but everyone who points out how wonderful Russia is is truly living in a fantasy land. I disagree with you though about the direction, what matters is the present. If you look at American history, under Roosevelt, we had almost complete government control and at some points in our history taxes were at 90% and there were drafts forcing you to go fight in undeclared wars. It is nowhere near as bad now as it was then. I think that the last 25 years have actually been a golden age in U.S history.
Ah, the story of the US government condensed in a few lines, absurd ideas, self destructing reasoning and a drive for power.
How many laws were there under Roosevelt as compared to now? Nowadays it's easier to end up in jail than ever over here.
When taxes were at 90% no one paid them. Try being a non 1%er and avoiding taxes now. It's impossible, and that's not even counting the real tax that is inflation. I agree with you that at present our free shit army has it head and shoulders above what they have over there. That's why to me the direction matters just as much, if not more than the present. Because we are sliding down that slope and I don't know what makes you so confident that we will buck history and not end up like them. We are the exception, they are the rule.
I am not one of these Putin supporters btw, he is a thug, just a different kind of thug than we have right now.
Russia 13% Flat Tax only.
http://www.rense.com/general36/flat.htm
More free in many ways...
In the 70s the U.S experienced very bad inflation. Like I said. I don't believe that where we are now is anywhere near as bad as it has been at times. The thing that worries me is that good education is very expensive. However, there are excellent free alternatives such as edx.org, etc. Everyone can educate themselves for free, depends on what they care about the degree or actually learning. The emphasis in this country on just the grade and not giving half a shit about the substance is worrisome. To be like Russia someone would have to drop an anvil for us to ever get to rock bottom like that. Since 1776, the U.S has been free. It's in our blood, don't expect to ever end up like them. Unless a major catastrophe were to happen. Even a banking reset wouldn't do it.
>>>I think that the last 25 years have actually been a golden age in U.S history.
Well each of us has his own, er, opinion.
For me, a relative oldster, the scales fell fom eyes only about twenty years ago when the Cold War drew to a close, but nothing (in the USA, at least) changed for the better. There are many, many US persons who think that the last 25 years have seen the loss of much of what was decent about the USA, to be replaced by... what you see all around you now.
I suppose that if you live within the bubble of American government, finance or infotainment, life has indeed never been better, or more rewarding. I prefer reality.
did you write this, barry?
The West can toy around with Iraq, Libya and Syria, but they better pack a lunch if they take on Russia....
WTF is this tripe? Jesus Tylers.
WTF is this tripe? You beat me to it...but deserves repaeating....
.
It's the retarded weekend Tyler. Someone gave him a bunch of Ex-Lax® and told him it was chocolate.
This article and the other one from The Diplomat are the results thus far.
It's called balanced reporting/comment.
I agree it's crap but we have to guard against being one eyed extremists ourselves.
In any case it's interesting to see what rubbish the other side is dishing out.
I myself have often read material/authors who have left me shaking my head, but nevertheless have given me a better understanding of evil, stupidity and the danger of such positions.
Must be Saturday night "humour"
This tripe is the shit that passes for reason and consensus in the EUSSR (vassal state of of the USSA).
Hedge Accordingly.
The majority of ZH is sooooooo past balanced reporting. I've also examined both sides of the story, though that was once upon a time when fraud was not in the open, nowadays I consider it just a waste of my precious time. If I wanted a balanced reporting, I'd tune in to CNBC or other such beacon of establishment propaganda.
Agree with you about the importance of knowing your opponent's thoughts and moves, but there's nothing new presented in this article. A collection of empty phrases from a one trick pony.
Fuck balanced. I'll sift through it on my own thank you very much. But this - this is the kind of shit they feed the sheep.
Seriously? "Balanced" implies lack of objectivity. Of fuck that, it means bereft of.
If I wanna read some idotic, Progressive/Socialist gibberish, I merely peruse Time magazine, to which I have a subscription for just those reasons.
Isn it me or is this a cafefully written propaganda piece from the EU? With statements like
"The government that came to power in Kiev in late February is weak. Contrary to Moscow’s claims, it is not illegitimate – it is as legitimate as it can be under the circumstances."
How can anyone believe the goverment in Kiev is legitimate?
Brought to you with the compliments of --??
Imagine this the other way around. Mexico signs a military pact with the USSR. Texas considers a referendum to declare independence and wanting to establish strong ties with Mexico.
USA just watches world series?
Doable?? no, I didn't think so.
Another steaming pile of shit.
Hey, look who is one of the big supporters of the European Council on Foreign Relations: Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Republic of Kosovo.
What an amazing fucking coincidence.
I can't imagine why they would be opposed to the Crimean referendum.
Stooge, you can always be counted on to carry the torch.
Regularly enjoy your views/comments.
There is also a little Soros logo at the bottom of the page...
This article is written as though Putin is the only significant opinion in Russia and is the sole driver of Russian policy. This is as likely as Obama being the sole driver behind US policies. It is written as propaganda to villify Putin as if he has all those poor russians and crimeans under his heel. The referendum will show this to be a lie. It is actually the western supported uprising in Ukraine that has acted undemocratically.
Rusia will do,what do mama bear in next clip.Watch it to the end please.3 min.only
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sbvmlT0dvtA
It is a male bear! But this is a nice little movie. Thanks for that.
It's from a 1988 film called "The Bear" One of my all time favorites.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Bear_(1988_film)
Come on, we all Know (except the sheep)
that WW3 is coming really soon,
Whatever the reason.
It may be as stupid as Obama drive his
Car on Putin dog.
War is the consequence of economic crash.
The world economic system is crashing
right now, so world war is the solution.
It's always been like this, and you know
what, it's not going to change. Because
we are the same stupid human, but
the danger is that we have more powerful
toys in ours hands..
It's easy to understand no?
Agreed. But my biggest concern is that the sides are not east and west, as many here suggest, but instead we, the little guy, and them, the politicians/technocrats. Vlad and Barry might say the other one is the worst threat to the world, but deep down they can't thank each other enough. Until one of them will spill their or their relatives blood on the battleground, it's all the same old propaganda bullshit as we will pay the price with our tax money or with our very lives.
who wrote this shit? the troops were already there. nubleman spent 5 billion on the pnac project. crimea is having a legit referendum. if crimera was not locked down it would be infultraited with spooks. this guy should read instead of write.
I think the UN should say USA and Europe have to make a referendum to say if people prefer to be russian or gouverned by stupid people...
This must be the fair and balanced counterpiece for ZH.
Interesting though to get their mindset though cause and effect here who threw the first punch and which sovereign and international laws were violated first.
I'll give everyone a hint going into Crimea was a response not the cause of the whole Ukranian situation but all these muppets want to conveniently ignore that point and this one here.
And also as a reminder this Radio Free Europe not Moscow making the point here. They wouldn't have pointed it out in the first place unless it had some serious merit considering who runs Radio Free Europe. This is not tinfoil hat wearing parnoid dickweed ZH users we are talking about here.
http://www.rferl.org/content/was-yanukovychs-ouster-constitutional/25274...
Dueling Constitutions
But a legal gap remains. According to the terms of an EU-brokered peace deal finalized on February 21, Yanukovych was due to sign a measure returning Ukraine to its 2004 constitution. (In 2010, Yanukovych restored the country's 1996 constitution, which hands greater power to the presidency.)
Yanukovych, however, failed to sign the measure. The omission appears to leave Kyiv in the kind of legal limbo that may prove fodder for future arguments against the current government transition.The 1996 and the 2004 constitutions are uniform when it comes to the reasons for removing a president, with Article 111 stating the parliament has the right to initiate a procedure of impeachment "if he commits treason or other crime."
However, it is not clear that the hasty February 22 vote upholds constitutional guidelines, which call for a review of the case by Ukraine's Constitutional Court and a three-fourths majority vote by the Verkhovna Rada -- i.e., 338 lawmakers.
...
Where was the fucking EU and NATO following international law and kicking this up to the UN in the first place to ensure security and the interim government only functioned as that instead of cutting deals and shipping off the country's gold for 'safe keeping' while this issue was sorted out legally and internally huh. That would have been the diplomatic thing to do in the first fucking place since it would have included ALL parties in the process.
Russia probably would have never marched into Crimea in the first place if the EU and NATO followed international fucking law in the first place.
But everyone likes to ignore this little issue here. Cause and effect are clear here. The protests weren't about joining Russia that in turn brought about the current interim goverment now were they?
Putin can point out this:
The Public Be Suckered
http://patrick.net/forum/?p=1230886
Europe will still be broke and John Kerry [Mr. Ed] will still be waiting for the 1 billion financial aid check released from China.
"Even so, this does not mean that sanctions are futile or unnecessary – especially because it seems more and more likely that we are now facing a longer-term battle between Russia and the West. "
There's the problem. This is gonna go hot and we will be the ones to suffer. We need to become energy efficient, more isolationist and less interventionist. I'm no fan of Putin. I just want to be left alone, but Rich cocksuckers just can't let that happen. I see the Rubicon in the rear view mirror.
Piss the Bear off and then call into question its leader's sanity.
Are they hoping elevated BP will kill him or do they want to call him into a general invasion?
The author of this article seems to be the one living in a fantasy land, not Putin.
Perhaps the ECFR is a bit out of touch.
"A glimpse into Putin's soul?". Ask Dubya about that.
He saw himself....Mission Accomplished
Ask, if gold is considered of such high value at GS, why are they shorting it? Maybe because the banks know they can short, short, short, and then when they have it at a price they like, go long long long!
Bitcoin Isn’t a Currency, Can’t Replace Gold: Goldman Sachs:http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/03/12/bitcoin-isnt-a-currency-cant-r...
You think so Iceland may say otherwise...
http://www.auroracoin.org/
Auroracoin is a cryptocurrency for Iceland. It is based on litecoin and is 50% premined. The premined coins will be distributed to the entire population of Iceland, commencing on midnight 25th of March 2014.
You can read more about it at the website but I wouldn't count them out just yet...
If any environment where a national crypto-curremcy could be proven to work without intervention of Central Banks, Iceland is the most promising candidate.
Internet currency will be easiest to control when it comes to forms of currency. That's why iceland likes it. Other governments say they don't like it because their fiat game is still going. Once the fiat charade is over they will bring in the eCurrency.
That's a pretty remarkable idea. At current prices, the creators of Auroracoin will give everyone around 650 bucks worth in 10 days from now, with encouragement that everyone starts to trade in it. It'll be very interesting to watch whether people actually start to use it as a working currency.
Protests getting organized in Russia again.
These are easy to pick off...much as I am fascinated with the idea that Putin really does have the balls to stand up to the West actually.
First: "no one wants to invade Crimea."
Second: "having invaded Crimea now you can solidify only by further invading."
Third: see first.
We'll see if I'm wrong here as I believe Russia will need to do a "Thunder Run" I order to do a proper reprise of "The Taking of Big Baghdaddy, the Musical."
Has he lost touched with reality?
Not if he takes Kiev.
I'm not sure he WANTS that reality however.
In this propaganda piece they forgot to mention who got those $5 billions from US Gov that was Victoria Nulan talking about in this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U2fYcHLouXY.
It was a HUGE investment, the question is, what were the expected benefits/results.
Why do you think they’re mysteriously closing the GSE paper trail? Just like the 9/11 claptrap, destroy the Enron evidence in building 7. Pull it!
/sarc
The WH, Foggy Bottom, Congress, and the main stream media have no clue about Putin...none.
Putin will do pretty much what he wants because he knows that this WH has no balls.
As for me, imo the US has no business fucking around in that part of the world. The parties involved need to "duke it out" amongst themselves. We ain't got a dog in this fight.
Actually there was not even a fight until the US put the dog in!
What kind of analytical relation to today's events in Ukraine and a race joke between two world leaders emphasizing Russia distorted media have? I give you a clue called "it's the table is turned around" ( although this author doesn't suggest that). The distortion from western nations media, slanting out any and all contrary subject matter that remotely suggest Washington's follies to destabilize Ukraine because the financial aid package was going to Russia's advantage, only provided the false flag for ransacking Ukraine's gold bullion reserves.
We can thank Obama for whats taking place now in Ukraine. Obama cancelled the missle defense systems in the Czech Republic and Poland and got nothing in exchange from Putin. Obama agreed to dismantel hundreds of our Nuclear warheads and got nothing from Putin. Obama promised President Dmitry Medvedev that he could do more for him once he is reelected. http://opinion.latimes.com/opinionla/2012/03/did-an-open-mic-catch-obama...
Obama wants to dismantel our military to levels prior to WW2, while Russian and China continue to build up their military.
Obama made more red line promises that he kept on breaking or denying he ever made.
What more proof do we need to understand that the rest of the world now sees the US as a paper tiger. Thanks to our Socialist community organizer.
We can thank Obama for whats taking place now in Ukraine. Obama cancelled the missle defense systems in the Czech Republic and Poland and got nothing in exchange from Putin. Obama agreed to dismantel hundreds of our Nuclear warheads and got nothing from Putin. Obama promised President Dmitry Medvedev that he could do more for him once he is reelected. http://opinion.latimes.com/opinionla/2012/03/did-an-open-mic-catch-obama...
Obama wants to dismantel our military to levels prior to WW2, while Russian and China continue to build up their military.
Obama made more red line promises that he kept on breaking or denying he ever made.
What more proof do we need to understand that the rest of the world now sees the US as a paper tiger. Thanks to our Socialist community organizer.
You spend 10x more than Russia...
Are you insecure after all the accomplished aggressions and depradations of innocents?
"Only the weak are cruel" Leo Buscaglia
John Kerry will return triumphantly to the USofA and treat himself to the back wax gift certificate awarded him by Susan Rice from the Wookiewax parlor in Potomac Village
The e-minis gap up open 100 points higher?
With all this being said, If I was a Greek Prime Minister, I'd be asking Putin to invade and save me from the EU hell as well.
Turkey is Putin's next stop. Greece is an interesting play though.
This article is very unTyler-like