• Steve H. Hanke
    05/04/2016 - 08:00
    Authored by Steve H. Hanke of The Johns Hopkins University. Follow him on Twitter @Steve_Hanke. A few weeks ago, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) sprang a surprise. It announced that a...

Bulls, Bears, And Bias (In 5 Simple Charts)

Tyler Durden's picture


While Jim Bullard has admitted that "tapering is tightening", the rest of the Fed remains adamant that reducing the flow and promising ever-lower for ever-longer rates will make up for the supply of portfolio-rebalancing free money. One glance at the following charts suggests that the bulls are losing faith but the dearth of bears leaves the low-volume levitation of US equities standing on increasingly fragile foundations.


Tapering is tightening as bulls lose faith...


But Bears remain in hibernation...


Global Macro Hedge funds remain long the S&P 500 and show no signs of faltering (for all those talking-heads who proclaim that investors are anxious!)


But the massive spec positions in AUD (short) - note the last few times the AUD positioning was so short...


and Crude oil (long) spec is extreme


So Bulls are losing faith based onthe Fed's taper... bears are non-existent still and leveraged accounts remain as long as they have been in months of US equities... combine that with exuberant longs in OIL (and the correlations that could set off in Trannies in the US).. and the extremes in AUD positioning which reflect dismally on periods before major US equity weakness and we suspect things are set to change very quickly...

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Sun, 03/16/2014 - 20:03 | 4556700 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Once you wrap your brain around the fact that all of the world's major central banks- The Fed, The BOJ, The PBOC and the ECB are all caught in varying degrees of the same liquidity trap, you are up on high enough ground to see the hell that's heading our way.

Deault has been ruled out since 2009.  Growth doesn't stand a chance of getting our heads back above water.  That leaves printing curency.  LOTS of currency.

Sun, 03/16/2014 - 20:11 | 4556735 fonestar
fonestar's picture

Bulls, Bears and Bi_ _ _ _ _

fonestar's eyes were leading him on.

Sun, 03/16/2014 - 21:05 | 4556912 mvsjcl
mvsjcl's picture


Sun, 03/16/2014 - 21:12 | 4556934 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

That's what I was thinking.  Bacardi 151.  The nighttime, sniffling, sneezing, coughing, aching, how the hell did I end up on the kitchen floor, medicine.

Sun, 03/16/2014 - 23:49 | 4557329 The Vineyard
The Vineyard's picture

One of you bitches needs to fetch me a cold glass of ice-tea.  Bastards.

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 01:07 | 4557434 fonestar
fonestar's picture



The Angry Sinner Blog!

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 02:25 | 4557502 Remnant_Army
Remnant_Army's picture

"Deault has been ruled out since 2009.  Growth doesn't stand a chance of getting our heads back above water.  That leaves printing curency.  LOTS of currency."


Yes. Once they destroy all the currencies in hyperinflation (preferably during wars allover the globe) people will beg for solutions. That's when the One World Currency and the Mark of the Beast may be presented.

No go area. Much better to accept the bitter reality now and prepare accordingly. 



Sun, 03/16/2014 - 20:11 | 4556734 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

There is no spoon.

Sun, 03/16/2014 - 20:38 | 4556808 Ban KKiller
Ban KKiller's picture

Charts make me dizzy. 

Market goes up tomorrow as lost plane lands in China. Blames weather.

Sun, 03/16/2014 - 21:06 | 4556920 FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

Spoo futures heading North now. PMs heading South. All is right with the world as Russia says sorry and pulls out of Crimea.... bwhahhahaha!!!! Typical Sunday night BS.

Sun, 03/16/2014 - 21:20 | 4556967 Ass to Mouth
Ass to Mouth's picture

ZH has been wrong for 5 years.  However, one day ZH will be correct.  Will it be today or 10 years from now?

Sun, 03/16/2014 - 22:42 | 4557185 Midnight Rider
Midnight Rider's picture

Picture is appropriate. Who was to know all those years the same guys would make the same mistakes creating an even bigger bubble the will supernova on us in the not too distant future. Think there was too much faith that we'd learned our bubble lessons the last three times... Guess not.

Sun, 03/16/2014 - 23:38 | 4557300 syntaxterror
syntaxterror's picture

In any given week, you can find 5 or so articles in the WSJ mentioning how overpriced stawks are. 

Sun, 03/16/2014 - 21:24 | 4556987 Yancey Ward
Yancey Ward's picture

I have written it before, and will do so again- the market will keep levitating until Mom and Pop panic and convert all their fixed income investments into equities.  Then and only then can the Wall Street connected safely convert their equities increases into fixed income.

Sun, 03/16/2014 - 22:38 | 4557178 Midnight Rider
Midnight Rider's picture

Don't think it will happen this time. Mom and Pop are getting ready to retire this time and don't want to loose what little they have left.

Sun, 03/16/2014 - 23:36 | 4557295 syntaxterror
syntaxterror's picture

0.00% interest rates from here to eternity. Even a 1% "spike" will nearly bankrupt Foodstamp's government.

Sun, 03/16/2014 - 23:48 | 4557326 Ryan7
Ryan7's picture

the tapering will take the water out of the pool, you wanna swim or dive freely? sorry, maybe you can bribe to Yellen? or beg?

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