Did SF Fed's John Williams Just Predict The Next Recession??

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Submitted by Lance Roberts of STA Wealth Management,


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Mon, 03/17/2014 - 15:54 | 4560253 maskone909
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Is it me or did we never exit the last recession, which realistically, is a depression

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 16:03 | 4560288 Surging Chaos
Surging Chaos's picture

It's not just you. What's going on right is definitely a depression.

There isn't much difference between today and the Great Depression (back then everyone wanted dollars and now people want to dump them). The pictures from the Great Depression that show bread lines and people standing in line at the employment offices are very much alive today. The bread lines are simply electronic now.

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 16:12 | 4560334 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

yep, it is a depression.

If you subtract out the trillions the fed gave to the USG to spend you get negative growth for 20 quarters....but I guess 'depression' has been reitred like a famous athlete's number so now it would just be called a really really really long recession.

I have also recently learned that somewhere along the timeline we started IMPUTING part of the GDP. If you own your home for instance the rent you would pay...is ...now part of the GDP.

All this tells us is that those in charge of numbers know things are so bad that the truth would be the end. So the truth must never be spoken. We have arrived at the end of the road. All else is just waiting. The GDP is produced the same way as the Chinese economy numbers. It is representation of the way those in charge would like it to be seen.

The only professional people in the money world who 'can't' see the problem are those 'who's salary depends upon it'.

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 16:14 | 4560296 Number 156
Number 156's picture

No its not you. We have been in a recession papered over with debt.

These guys have been selling advice based on a recovery, thus cannot and will not admit that we've been and still are, in a recession.

I wouldnt let these people lick my postage stamps let alone handle my money.


Mon, 03/17/2014 - 16:07 | 4560312 Looney
Looney's picture

No, it's not you... it's ME  ;-)


Mon, 03/17/2014 - 22:06 | 4561585 Hohum
Hohum's picture

We've been in a recession (growth - debt) since the early 1970s.

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 15:55 | 4560257 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

wow they are pumping this market damn hard to keep one big shart of a close from happening.

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 15:57 | 4560265 maskone909
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And when it tanks we will get the, "nobody saw this comming" shenanagins

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 16:01 | 4560290 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

the buying frenzy in the last 20 seconds was tremendous. someone could not pile in fast enough.

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 16:04 | 4560293 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Equity market indexes are just about the last thing they can paint in order to (unsuccessfully) try & prevent a total collapse in an illusion of any positivity.

The problem is that a) it's not worked thus far, and b) they've used a helluva lot of paint during the last 5 years & will have trouble sourcing more diminishing layers.

I personally think the green paint today is in honor of St. Patrick's Day.

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 16:05 | 4560303 TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

Not gonna happen, the FED has fixed the problem of business cycles making this time different.  


We have reached a permanent high plateau, a new paradigm if you will.  

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 16:09 | 4560327 fonzannoon
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I wonder about that a lot. 

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 18:23 | 4560868 free_lunch
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On October 23rd 1929 Economist Professor Irving Fischer announced that "Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau". The next day the Dow Jones gapped down 10% in the first few minutes of trade and did not recover to that point in inflation adjusted terms until the 1960's.


Mon, 03/17/2014 - 15:55 | 4560259 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

the last 2 times we went into recession, "they" sent 2 planes into the Towers in 2001 and when the fed let LEH go BR.  see, create hysteria to explain away the crash.  what will it be this time???

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 15:58 | 4560270 soopy
soopy's picture


Mon, 03/17/2014 - 15:58 | 4560275 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Leveraged asset collapse redux ... bitchez

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 15:59 | 4560278 McMolotov
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Some researchers suggest that Bigfoot resides in the White House.

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 16:04 | 4560299 DblAjent
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I thought she was a Wookie...

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 16:21 | 4560364 McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

Shoe size implies at least half-squatch.

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 16:06 | 4560286 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

I think we have seen the last officially declared recession of our lifetimes.  Everything is "recovery" now.  There may be times of greater "recovery" or less "recovery", but I think the R-word has been banished just as the D-word before it.

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 16:01 | 4560291 lasvegaspersona
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hey buddy, bigfoot is real, I've seen pictures on Youtube...get edjacated...

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 16:07 | 4560318 bania
bania's picture

It's "edjumucated", idiot.

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 16:08 | 4560321 stant
stant's picture

dr copper has the last say

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 16:15 | 4560343 Billy Sol Estes
Billy Sol Estes's picture

Doctor Copafeel?



Mon, 03/17/2014 - 16:09 | 4560326 Caggge
Caggge's picture

A debt based economy equals slavery.

An asset based economy equals freedom.

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 16:13 | 4560340 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Dumpster diving recovery.


Mon, 03/17/2014 - 16:19 | 4560356 Postal
Postal's picture

"This" time is different. Unlike the last "this" time, which was different before it wasn't.

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 16:32 | 4560431 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

Sucks to be a bull when an economy reverts to the mean.

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 17:36 | 4560705 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

Main St. is responsible for holding back the recovery because they keep going bankrupt.

Thankfully, the big Corps and financials can't go bankrupt or we would be in very serious trouble.

The trick to soft landings is looking in the right places for them.

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 18:06 | 4560818 Duke Dog
Duke Dog's picture

My only comment in question form is "Why does any sane person give a shit about what these psycopaths say"?

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 18:40 | 4560922 Clycntct
Clycntct's picture

What is the official fed policy?(mission statement) and over time what has it been and how many times has it been amended?

This Piece of BS information gives you all the information you need to know.

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 19:09 | 4561035 starman
starman's picture

hahahahahahahahahahahahahaha, dicks!

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 19:53 | 4561177 Rising Sun
Rising Sun's picture

The depression started in 2007 Yellen.


Sucks to be you bitch!!!!

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