Did SF Fed's John Williams Just Predict The Next Recession??

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Lance Roberts of STA Wealth Management,


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maskone909's picture

Is it me or did we never exit the last recession, which realistically, is a depression

Surging Chaos's picture

It's not just you. What's going on right is definitely a depression.

There isn't much difference between today and the Great Depression (back then everyone wanted dollars and now people want to dump them). The pictures from the Great Depression that show bread lines and people standing in line at the employment offices are very much alive today. The bread lines are simply electronic now.

lasvegaspersona's picture

yep, it is a depression.

If you subtract out the trillions the fed gave to the USG to spend you get negative growth for 20 quarters....but I guess 'depression' has been reitred like a famous athlete's number so now it would just be called a really really really long recession.

I have also recently learned that somewhere along the timeline we started IMPUTING part of the GDP. If you own your home for instance the rent you would pay...is ...now part of the GDP.

All this tells us is that those in charge of numbers know things are so bad that the truth would be the end. So the truth must never be spoken. We have arrived at the end of the road. All else is just waiting. The GDP is produced the same way as the Chinese economy numbers. It is representation of the way those in charge would like it to be seen.

The only professional people in the money world who 'can't' see the problem are those 'who's salary depends upon it'.

Number 156's picture

No its not you. We have been in a recession papered over with debt.

These guys have been selling advice based on a recovery, thus cannot and will not admit that we've been and still are, in a recession.

I wouldnt let these people lick my postage stamps let alone handle my money.


Looney's picture

No, it's not you... it's ME  ;-)


Hohum's picture

We've been in a recession (growth - debt) since the early 1970s.

fonzannoon's picture

wow they are pumping this market damn hard to keep one big shart of a close from happening.

maskone909's picture

And when it tanks we will get the, "nobody saw this comming" shenanagins

fonzannoon's picture

the buying frenzy in the last 20 seconds was tremendous. someone could not pile in fast enough.

TruthInSunshine's picture

Equity market indexes are just about the last thing they can paint in order to (unsuccessfully) try & prevent a total collapse in an illusion of any positivity.

The problem is that a) it's not worked thus far, and b) they've used a helluva lot of paint during the last 5 years & will have trouble sourcing more diminishing layers.

I personally think the green paint today is in honor of St. Patrick's Day.

TheRideNeverEnds's picture

Not gonna happen, the FED has fixed the problem of business cycles making this time different.  


We have reached a permanent high plateau, a new paradigm if you will.  

free_lunch's picture

On October 23rd 1929 Economist Professor Irving Fischer announced that "Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau". The next day the Dow Jones gapped down 10% in the first few minutes of trade and did not recover to that point in inflation adjusted terms until the 1960's.


101 years and counting's picture

the last 2 times we went into recession, "they" sent 2 planes into the Towers in 2001 and when the fed let LEH go BR.  see, create hysteria to explain away the crash.  what will it be this time???

Rainman's picture

Leveraged asset collapse redux ... bitchez

McMolotov's picture

Some researchers suggest that Bigfoot resides in the White House.

DblAjent's picture

I thought she was a Wookie...

McMolotov's picture

Shoe size implies at least half-squatch.

NoDebt's picture

I think we have seen the last officially declared recession of our lifetimes.  Everything is "recovery" now.  There may be times of greater "recovery" or less "recovery", but I think the R-word has been banished just as the D-word before it.

lasvegaspersona's picture

hey buddy, bigfoot is real, I've seen pictures on Youtube...get edjacated...

bania's picture

It's "edjumucated", idiot.

stant's picture

dr copper has the last say

Caggge's picture

A debt based economy equals slavery.

An asset based economy equals freedom.

q99x2's picture

Dumpster diving recovery.


Postal's picture

"This" time is different. Unlike the last "this" time, which was different before it wasn't.

Soul Glow's picture

Sucks to be a bull when an economy reverts to the mean.

shovelhead's picture

Main St. is responsible for holding back the recovery because they keep going bankrupt.

Thankfully, the big Corps and financials can't go bankrupt or we would be in very serious trouble.

The trick to soft landings is looking in the right places for them.

Duke Dog's picture

My only comment in question form is "Why does any sane person give a shit about what these psycopaths say"?

Clycntct's picture

What is the official fed policy?(mission statement) and over time what has it been and how many times has it been amended?

This Piece of BS information gives you all the information you need to know.

starman's picture

hahahahahahahahahahahahahaha, dicks!

Rising Sun's picture

The depression started in 2007 Yellen.


Sucks to be you bitch!!!!