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Homebuilder Confidence Misses Expectations Again As Outlook Plunges To 10-Month Lows

Tyler Durden's picture


Despite last month's epic collapse in the NAHB Confidence index, the 'recovery' bounce this month missed expectations significantly making the 6th miss in the last 7 months (we assume that means its been winter-stormy for the last 7 months). Holding at levels seen in May 2013, future sales expectations dropped once again to 10 month lows as hope fades (or they expect more bad weather). The West (crushed by warm dry pleasant weather) continues to plummet but the NorthEast dropped to levekls not seen since Auguest 2012.




and the outlook tumbles (must be expecting bad weather)


The West plunged and The NorthEast dropped to multi-year lows...


Charts: Bloomberg

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Mon, 03/17/2014 - 10:10 | 4558242 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Less worse!  Bullish!

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 11:03 | 4558566 creativity19
creativity19's picture

I propose we start a new index, we'll call it the Homelessness Confidence Index. People will be polled about how likely they'll see themselves homeless within a given period of time, say 5 years. Who thinks this would be a good idea?


Mon, 03/17/2014 - 11:24 | 4558679 elwind45
elwind45's picture

Its sad but in front of my store you would be able to get at least a 4% error margin polling homeless about "when they think they will be off the streets"! Your example assumes too much?

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 10:12 | 4558250 Yoki
Yoki's picture

In the end, the your masters will win,

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 11:07 | 4558578 Bonapartist
Bonapartist's picture

thanks Yoda.

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 10:12 | 4558253 PlusTic
PlusTic's picture

Good enough for the algos...they were getting dusty!

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 10:14 | 4558263 caimen garou
caimen garou's picture

russians impose sanctions on US, stopped buying houses in kalifornia

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 10:31 | 4558315 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Philly housing index rolled over 10 days ago.




Today the Philly is flat at 201 in spite of the ramp up this morning.


Ugly and getting uglier.

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 10:26 | 4558339 Johnny Cocknballs
Johnny Cocknballs's picture

 Buy the dip!

Hey, all we need is more subprime lending. 

That and fresh baked fiat, right out of Mama Yellen's oven.

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 10:32 | 4558386 rockraider3
rockraider3's picture

You didn't build that.  Literally.  Homebuilders are not going to build that.

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 10:37 | 4558419 Wen_Dat
Wen_Dat's picture

Tyler, why you lie?


Breaking News: US homebuilder confidence edges higher in March Yahoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
Mon, 03/17/2014 - 10:41 | 4558438 agstacks
agstacks's picture

Nothing a few new scary weather terms cannot explain away.  Polar vortex to become the mexi-drought this summer, etc.

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 11:03 | 4558565 Unstable Condition
Unstable Condition's picture

The term polar vortex isn't anything new, it's just been a couple decades since one came down so far so persistently.

Other than that you're correct.

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 11:06 | 4558576 starman
starman's picture

3 2 1 crash ....I Speculate a 30% drop in real estate in areas where it shot up 30% from Dec 2012 to May 2013 do to instutional overindulge nce. 

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 11:13 | 4558621 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

The problem now seems to be how to make the news increasingly bad enough to keep stawk indexes levitating daily....and there's no way to stop this ride and get off, tha's the sad part. Like Bill Hicks said, it's just a ride, you go up and down and round and round.

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 11:16 | 4558633 Father Lucifer
Father Lucifer's picture

It's fucking summer in L.A. already, totally blew over the spring buying season. See it is the weather.

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 11:20 | 4558653 TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

..and the S&P goes STRAIGHT UP on the news. 


1900 here we come!

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 11:30 | 4558723 elwind45
elwind45's picture

Radiation vortex only needs a breeze

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 11:57 | 4558883 boeing747
boeing747's picture

After this year's consolidation, RE will move even higher next year. Warning sign is that the housing prices in bad school districts are approaching the highs of last bubble. I don't know why ZH keeps posting such articles, who owns ABC Media.

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 12:17 | 4558990 Bonapartist
Bonapartist's picture

NAR in da house

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 12:34 | 4559084 rlouis
rlouis's picture

Algos can't drive real home sales anymore than artificial interest rates can sustain an unreal level of real estate values.  The only thing that will save real estate prices is hyper inflation - and that isn't a good thing.

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 12:43 | 4559134 yogibear
yogibear's picture


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