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Industrial Production Beats, Recovers February's Big Miss On More Auto Inventory Stacking

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Hardly surprising given February's biggest miss in 10 months that March's data would rebound and so it did from an initial -0.3% in Feb, March rose +0.6% (well above +0.2% expectations)  - 2.7% above last year's levels. This 0.6% rise is above even the most exuberant "economists" estimates. Utilities fell 0.2% (as weather warmed up) but what was most notable is the 7.4% surge in motor vehicles (the biggest in at least 6 months) - which are already sitting at record levels of absolute inventories and the highest inventory-to-sales since the financial crisis.

 

IP swings back to recover Feb's losses...

 

The indexes for consumer durables and consumer non-energy nondurables moved up 2.1 percent and 0.9 percent, respectively, in February, while the index for consumer energy products decreased 0.8 percent.

 

Within consumer durables, the production of automotive products jumped 4.6 percent to reverse most of a similarly sized decrease in January, and the output of home electronics increased 0.7 percent. These gains in February were partly offset by a decrease of 1.7 percent in the production of appliances, furniture, and carpeting as well as a decline of 0.1 percent in the output of miscellaneous goods.

Within consumer non-energy nondurables, the indexes for foods and tobacco, for chemical products, and for paper products each rose about 1 percent, while the output of clothing moved down 0.7 percent.

 

Of course, this IP number is largely irrelevant because in 11 days the Fed will revise the entire data series:

The Federal Reserve Board plans to issue its annual revision to the index of industrial production (IP) and the related measures of capacity utilization at noon on March 28, 2014. The revised indexes for IP will incorporate data from the U.S. Geological Survey regarding metallic and nonmetallic minerals (except fuels) for 2012. The update will also include revisions to the monthly indicators (either product data or input data) and to seasonal factors for each industry. In addition, the estimation methods for some series may be changed. Any modifications to the methods for estimating the output of an industry will affect the index from 1972 to the present.

 

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Mon, 03/17/2014 - 09:33 | 4558066 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

Dammit borrow and buy sheeples. Need to look good in that new car

 

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 09:43 | 4558109 Rafferty
Rafferty's picture

Ok. But every time the expectations fall short it's the end is nigh.  Then things bounce back and it's.......well the end will be nigh next time.

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 09:35 | 4558074 Ban KKiller
Ban KKiller's picture

Cook. The. Books. No one is looking any hoo. Non GAAP can be used any time as long as it makes the facts correct, got it? Sure, said the slave accountant fearful of job loss.

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 09:54 | 4558141 luckylongshot
luckylongshot's picture

The problem is noone takes official government figures seriously any more. The reason for this is that there is a massive conflict of interest in having the government supply its own performance figures. What seems reliable are the figures that John Williams at Shadow stats supplies, but they say the US Economy is collapsing.

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 09:55 | 4558148 Rising Sun
Rising Sun's picture

The next move is to have this inventory stolen - corps take the write down and it buy another 3-6 months of building MOAR cars without a hope in fucking hell of selling them to legit customers.

 

Keep printing Yellen you fat cunt!!!

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 10:08 | 4558229 elwind45
elwind45's picture

Call in the fluffers

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 10:13 | 4558259 The_Ungrateful_Yid
The_Ungrateful_Yid's picture

BTFD

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 10:17 | 4558280 asteroids
asteroids's picture

How the fuck does this square with the Empire numbers just reported? Who's lying? Unfortunately, you gotta assume that every number since Obozo came to power is bogus. Pity.

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 19:18 | 4561059 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

I would like to suggest that surging auto sales might be interpreted as a spooky signal as to what is really happening within our economy. We should ask what is driving this market. Pent up demand as cars simply wear out and low interest rates account for much of it, but who is buying these cars.

An issue that should not be ignored is that the percentage of retail sales attributed to automobile sales has soared. Below is an article that looks deeper into why these sale may be a problem.

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/04/auto-sales-spooky-signal.html

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!