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Market "Strains The Imagination" - Everyone From Goldman To Sterne Agee Stumped

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Just in case people, as opposed to Virtu algos because we know they never lose money, were confused by this market, we have some encouraging words: don't worry you are not alone.

From Goldman's David Kostin...

The flat YTD equity market is impressive considering the news flow: Persistently disappointing domestic economic data (partly weather-related), an EM currency crisis, uncertainty in China growth and its shadow banking system, and the Russian invasion and sponsorship of the Crimea succession plebiscite on Sunday, to name just a few events since the start of 2014.

... To Sterne Agee's Carter Worth (via Bloomberg)

S&P 500 rise to new high recently was a "party for one" as other global indexes did not participate; "there are so many issues with the market that it strains the imagination," writes Sterne Agee technical analyst Carter Worth in note. Nikkei 225 "deteriorating for weeks" has “look and feel of an important topping-out formation” while European stocks at or below February lows. Small cap stocks, including solar, marine shipping, new-era dot.com, and micro-cap biotech stocks "surging with abandon"

So? The USDJPY is higher and that is all that matters. But yes, nobody has any clue what is going on any more. Just BTFATH, or if that is not available, just keep BTFWWWIIID.

 

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Mon, 03/17/2014 - 09:36 | 4558077 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

Say the secret word...

"Manipulation"

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 09:38 | 4558091 flacon
flacon's picture

W.W.C.S.D. (What Would Chuck Schumer Do?)

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 09:40 | 4558101 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

This just in: "earthquake hits LA"

Alternative headline: "excuse for bad economic indicators has been determined"

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 09:52 | 4558132 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Fed and ESF don't wanna' buy no furrin' stocks.

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 09:52 | 4558134 I am more equal...
I am more equal than others's picture

 

 

Dante wrote 'abandon hope all who enter here'

Fed action 'smoke dope and hope all who enter here"

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 09:57 | 4558162 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Any broken windows?

-J.M.K.

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 11:56 | 4558874 Dollarmedes
Dollarmedes's picture

Barring an earthquake or other undeniable bad news, there are only two real market movers:

1) China. This will be a constant trickle of defaults and will play out over the span of months.

2) QE. There will come a point when the guaranteed returns from the tapering QE no longer make up for the malinvestment. When firms like JPM and Goldman Sachs start posting losses, then the sh*t will hit the fan.

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 09:53 | 4558137 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

Get plugs.

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 10:19 | 4558297 JamesBond
JamesBond's picture

Insiders already know that Yellen will not decrease QE. 

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 09:36 | 4558078 401K of Dooom
401K of Dooom's picture

I don't care any more.  I just want my MTV!!!!!

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 09:50 | 4558126 Ban KKiller
Ban KKiller's picture

...with a shot of SilverCoin and some old, old chronic. Comedy central for the "newsies".

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 09:37 | 4558083 caimen garou
caimen garou's picture

goldman stumped? ask your computers whats going on, idiots!

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 09:40 | 4558098 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Everyone 'stumped', even the banksters? Rubbish...they designed the free-money markets this ship of fools is floating on.

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 09:44 | 4558112 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

These fuckers (goldman et al) are baiting the retail sheep shorts to come in and fund the next rally up....because the shorts are the only thing keeping this ponzi markets from collapsing.

 

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 09:59 | 4558167 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Perhaps the banks had all positioned short for the day, and China/Russia swooped in and pushed it up to fuck with them.

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 09:41 | 4558104 Johnny Cocknballs
Johnny Cocknballs's picture

Doesn't strain my imagination.

What does is the focus on the Yen.  Japan is absolutely, positively fucked.  But then, I have a mid to long term bias...

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 09:44 | 4558111 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

WTF? These markets have been straining the imagination for five fucking years. Where in the hell do they get these people? Don't answer, it's a rhetorical question.

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 09:46 | 4558118 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Not to brag but from yesterday....

4555710fonzannoon
Vote up!

17
Vote down!

-1

"I raised a decent amount of cash last week so expect the biggest rally of the year starting tomorrow."

Fuck me.
Mon, 03/17/2014 - 09:49 | 4558124 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I saw that comment. It made me feel better about buying on Friday :)

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 09:52 | 4558133 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I really believe some of us on here move markets doc (clearly against us). When Al Huxley turned around and shorted the miners he set off teh rally of the year. 

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 10:01 | 4558176 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I don't know. My personal philosophy lately has been to buy and then be quick to take profits when they try to scare the shit of us. At some point in time they will change that formula, but it seems to work for now.

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 10:04 | 4558207 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

hey guys, i know its hard, but by buying the markets, you are only allowing this shitshow to continue by feeding this corrupt system with more capital.

I take it you guys are in charge of managing other peoples money and I can understand that your duty is for your clients to make more money...but based on what you say on here ZH and what you are doing in the markets (BTFATHs), you are not doing the best interest of your client...as you know more than them (from reading others POV here), the true risk of the markets AND you do not know for a fact WHY the markets are surging.

The markets have moved against me so often (as I have been more times short than long) because I believe after these five years, there is no free markets anymore. Thats the only thing that I can confirm for a FACT.

Instead of joining the game, especially this late in the game, I rather just watch this impending disaster unfold.

 

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 10:15 | 4558248 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

As money managers the best we can do is make them aware of what is going on and share our concerns with them. Myself personally I advise clients to protect themselves by buying hard asset too. I can assure you though, that if clients see markets rallying and we don't deliver results eventually they will move those assets to somebody who will, and that somebody may not have their clients best interests at heart. I have been with many of my clients for almost 20 years. I sure can't throw them to the lions now.

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 10:31 | 4558300 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

Makes sense Doc, i totally understand from where you stand. But how many clients of yours even take your caution to lower their allocation to risk assets? Just wondering.

I dont know how much AUM you or fonzy are in charge of, but if every one of you guys decide to buy on a friday, it does have an impact on a market where trading volume is down 50% from a few years ago.

So, you gonna dump what you bought on friday now to lock in some gains?Day trading for yourself is one thing, day trading for a group of clients is another as these orders are probably sizeable.

Also, does what happen over the weekends with Russia, another Chinese default, more dire info from MH370, shitty weather continues even have matter on your decision to invest or not? I mean friday you guys made a hunch, which turned out to be correct, but honestly those events didnt matter one bit.

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 10:21 | 4558312 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

DS I hear you man but I just see it a bit differently. The best thing you can do is take what the market is giving you and use it to buy real assets and prepare for the day when the wind finally shifts. So like Doc, I tell my clients that this is all bullshit. I tell them to buy real assets, and I tell them that one day the music will stop. But when they smile and say "well we have a ways to go before that ever happens" I just try to guide them as best I can as we both make pretend to have an idea what is coming next. 

Doing what you advocate doing will not change a clients behavior. They will just go somewhere else.

I think the people on here who short this beast on the grounds that they think they are morally correct are totally insane. I understand the option of staying away from it is there and I respect anyone who takes that option. 

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 10:30 | 4558370 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

"I think the people on here who short this beast on the grounds that they think they are morally correct are totally insane."

I agree with that notion also...as I was in that camp too, but honestly I wont fight the trend anymore. I will just stay the course and be happy with whatever happens as stocks aint the most important aspect of my life even though I have to deal with it every fuckin day.

As for waiting for the music to stop, just make sure you and your clients are not holding the bag completely (fully invested) when the fat lady stops singing from a massive heart failure. And i have collegues who have the same thinking as you and say that they will switch to hard assets from stocks when SHTF but nobody can time the markets completely or wait for that exact moment to do that. At a certain point, you have to say enough is enough out there and slowly redeploy your capital elsewhere.

You guys should NOT be making jokes at Lazlo The Ruler Birinyi, Jim Bear Stearns Cramer, Larry Muthafuckin Fink, Abraham Joseph Cohen and others on CNBC because they are saying the exact same thing you are.

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 10:40 | 4558430 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I'll never forget when Lazlo came on CNBC and said "This market is completely rigged" or when Abby said on Bloomberg "You need to be taking gains in paper assets and using them to buy real assets as often as you can".  My favorite was when Larry Fink said "This country is going to shit. The middle class is dying and the fed is trying to pump the markets up in response to create a wealth effect, which will eventually fail on a massive scale"

You remember them saying that right? Because I was floored when I heard that, because those are some of the things I say. All this time I tought they just spewed shit about the economy gaining traction.

Come on man, give me a break with that. By the way...when the music stops, which way does it stop? Do interest rates spiral out of control? Or does money come flooding into bonds and yields collapse? Do stocks hyperinflate? Or do they crash massively? Can you promise me you know the answer for sure? Can you define risk anymore? Can anyone? Can you truly have a timeframe on this crash? This year? Next decade? Where would you redeploy capital too?

I can go on and on. But I think you know we are all just so far out in uncharted territory that no one has a clue anymore.

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 10:55 | 4558525 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

fonz, if i was in your shoes, I would understand completely though I would probably rather lose my clients then keep them. If your clients are stupid enough not to see this bs going on and still force you guys to be fully invested, they deserve to lose their money. But then again, I am in a different situation than you guys when you have a family to feed and take care of and that takes the highest precedence in your life than anything else.

And yes, we are in so into uncharted waters it dont make sense anymore. We are at a point of no return.

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 11:07 | 4558582 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

what if they are smart enough to see this bs going on and have legitimatelly had all other avenues of capital deployment cut off? They know the bank pays 0% and they are subject to failing at some point. They probably own some PM's in some way or another if they listened to me at any point. Right now they are prob not thrilled about it but they get it. The people around me built their own debt prisons and then refinanced them and are now forever locked in to rising property taxes and declining home sales. They don't have too much discretionary income, if any at all. They have their 401k and it is the only thing that they have seen move up the last 5 years. Some of them are smart enough to know it's a trap but have no other choice.

If you were me and literally handed clients back their capital and refused to manage it, the first question they would ask is "what the hell should I do with this?" I'm just curious, what would your answer be?

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 11:36 | 4558744 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

I think that is the ultimate question and I honestly dont have an answer for that. Remember the capital that they have isnt theirs until their money is taken OUT of the financial institutions because the banking system is so overlevered that a hypothetical 3% drop in deposits in a 33x levered financial system wipes out all the capital. The markets keep rising because money is flowing out by the smart insider moneys....leverage has to keep going higher to maintain a smaller and smaller capital base..so stocks have to keep rising to maintain that illusion. Many people ask me the same question and all I can say is to diversified. Cannot be fully invested in stocks or anything overvalued (I will allocate this portion that I can afford to lose on the risk asset class because there is a chance my doomsday scenario will not play out). My best recommendation is to do what hh or Hy_B will do which is to use the rest of the capital to buy hard assets, some farmland far from cities, and learn to be self sufficient, some ammo and guns and precious metals (gold) and non perishable food and water (you dont need to buy a ton but keep 2-3 years stockpile on a rolling basis)

They will probably think I am crazy but it dont matter, if they dont like what I am going to say, then take your money and find someone who can manage it for them that they can say what the clients want to hear (I am sure there are tons of these guys out there).As for me, I want no part of this anymore, their problem.

I also do tell my parents that they should enjoy life and not to save for me (even though my parents were frugal and have learnt to save up some money for their retirement as well as probably leave some for me if there is extra left). They are too old for the tough times ahead and it maybe better for them to enjoy the rest of their lives which is why we see many people spend money on trips and vacations. Enjoy your money while you can before say WW3 or before fiat currency becomes worthless. Whats the point of turning your clients money 1000% to 5mn dollars but it cant buy much or the world is so fucked up anyways that you cant go on any trips because safety (MH370) or weather or natural disasters will prevent you from doing so. Of course all these things may or may not happen but its my view that it will by 2016 and more likely sometime this year SWHTF.

As for me, all I can do is prepare for the worst. I honestly do not know what to expect either but at least I will be more prepared than most. Its a tough question fonz and I respect you and your views on this...but we are all different in our thinking and thats why some of us wont ever be rich, but wont ever be poor either.

 

 

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 11:46 | 4558824 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

where exactly do we differ? I manage clients paper assets, especially qualified ones that are trapped by the IRS anyway. As for the rest of their assets....

How many times do I have to tell you that I echo these sentiments "is to use the rest of the capital to buy hard assets, some farmland far from cities, and learn to be self sufficient, some ammo and guns and precious metals (gold) and non perishable food and water (you dont need to buy a ton but keep 2-3 years stockpile on a rolling basis)" to not only my clients but the people around me on a daily basis? Do you think I am lying to you? 

As for everything else you said, whether it is one big shtf moment or death by a thousand cuts for the middle class and society, I don't really know. But I agree that we should all enjoy life as best we can whether it's one of those scenario's, or neither. No point in letting it ruin the time you have here.

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 11:51 | 4558854 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

thats good, based on your posts before, I always felt we were on the same wavelength...anyhow i only read ZH during work hours so I actually dont read a lot of what others post outside of those hours but yes, i concur that you have the same thinking as I do, I just didnt know you (and Doc) manage assets till today so I wanted to see what your views really are...but it seems like we are def on the same page.

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 09:44 | 4558117 Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades's picture

Mr. Yellen has gotten to work . . .

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 09:47 | 4558122 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Stumped my ass...

All by design folks.  Pushing the herd back and forth from one side of the boat to the other (profitting from every "market" move).

Let me be clear, this will continue until the supply lines break or the average person simply cannot afford food and fuel.  At that point, the government will "save" everyone when the FEMA camps open their doors...

Hedge accordingly...

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 09:48 | 4558123 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Have to generate the perception that everything is getting better through US equities. Look, the US stock market keeps going up. 

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 09:50 | 4558127 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

Honey badger market doesn't give a fuck.

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 09:50 | 4558128 q99x2
q99x2's picture

I've been telling you all for two years but nobody listens to q99x2. At the end of 2011 the FED connected directly into the markets with software. They as well as other nations can purchase stocks with freshly printed electronic fiat and hold them on their books as a matter of global security (world domination).

Why do people not see what is right in front of them.

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 10:03 | 4558198 loonyleft
loonyleft's picture

It seems to be a human disconnect that we just can't imagine these things. Just as many are happy to blame Obama for shit, they can't fathom that there is a whole system running the show. 

My personal theory is that there are numerous supercomputers with numerous models that are modeling the action of the US government in particular but other governments as well. 

By inputting scenarios they come up with how they should act and react. While humans provide the ultimate final decision (we aren't at autonomy yet) they are heavily influenced by these models. 

As a result, expect that anything that can be manipulated, will be, including the stock market. And when it crashes, that will not be any indication that the theory is not true. 

If HFT algos are running the market, why not the US and FED directly as well? 

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 12:22 | 4559018 I Write Code
I Write Code's picture

Yeah we know already.

"This is the best of all possible worlds," says the optimist.

"You're probably right," says the pessimist.

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 10:20 | 4558303 Bangin7GramRocks
Bangin7GramRocks's picture

Even though you write in the third person, and that is annoying, I must agree with you q99x2. The Fed is in control of the markets. They are currently allowing people to feel rich. Who knows when they will decide to let people taste some reality.

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 11:13 | 4558616 nakki
nakki's picture

I think 80% of the people are already feeling very real. The next 15% should be joining them very shortly. Don't know if the next 4.9% ever will. Which leaves us with the .01%, who will always live in a very different reality than the rest of us.

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 10:47 | 4558471 TrustWho
TrustWho's picture

The guys do not read ZH or they would understand. The Wizard manipulates until he (with all the choices, what is Yellen's gender?) DOES NOT.

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