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"Putin Did The Right Thing" Says Marc Faber, But Fears China Implications More

Tyler Durden's picture




 

While Marc Faber is adamant that "there’s lots of funny things that are happening in China. And when the whole thing unwinds it will be a disaster," it is his comments with regard Ukraine (and Russia) that are worth paying significant new attention to. As The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report editor notes in this brief Bloomberg TV interview, if you put yourself in Putin's shoes "he did the right thing from his perspective," given Crimea's strategic importance. However, as Faber concludes, "Crimea moving to Russia gives essentially a signal to China that one day they can also move and seize some territory that they perceive belongs to them."

 

 

Faber On Russia, Ukraine and its signaling to China...

Mr. Putin did the right thing from his perspective. We have to look – put ourselves into his shoes. He did absolutely the right thing at the right time.

 

...By that I mean that there was interference by foreign powers in Ukrainian politics that were unfavorably from the perspective of Russia.

 

...The Crimea is strategically most important for Russia. It has practically no meaning strategically to the United States or to Europe. But for Russia it’s very important. I don’t think that Russia will move further into Ukraine unless there is serious provocation. But I doubt it will happen. But I think the wider implication is that we have now border lines. In other words, the US would intervene if a foreign power would establish bases in Haiti and in Cuba and so forth and so on, and the Chinese will react if foreign powers threaten Chinese access to resources.

 

...

 

This is very important because the occupation or say the referendum (ph) in Crimea and Crimea moving to Russia gives essentially a signal to China that one day they can also move and seize some territory that they perceive that belongs to them.

Faber confirms his perspective on China...

...we had a colossal credit bubble in China and that this credit bubble is now being gradually deflated and will bring about problems in the real estate market and among some major players in the commodity markets as well. So overall, if I look at export figures from China, and they are very closely correlated to overall economic growth, then there is a huge discrepancy between what China reports and what China’s trading partners are reporting.

 

So if you look at the figures of China, exports are still growing. If you look at the trade figures China exports to Taiwan, so China records exports of so and so much. The Taiwan report imports from China at a much lower level. So which figures are more reliable? I think the figures of the trading partners of China are more reliable. And they would suggest that growth has slown down considerably.

 

...

 

Governments will always publish the statistics that they wish to show irrespective whether that is in China or in other countries. Governments control basically the statistical offices, so they can show whatever they want. As Stalin said, it’s not important who votes but who counts the votes. And the government counts the statistics.

 

...the fact is simply that Chinese stocks have been just about the worst performing stocks since 2006. Now analysts will dismiss that and say everything is prefect in China, but the stock market does not seem to believe everything that the government is saying about the economy. And clearly there are strength signs in the Chinese economy. In particular, as I said, we have this huge explosion of debt. Debt as a percent of GDP has increased in the last five years by more than 50 percent. Total debt is now over 215 percent of GDP, and a lot of it is trade finance that is being rolled over.

 

In addition to that, there are lots of funny deals. A friend of mine who analyzes China very carefully, Simon Hunt (ph), he pointed out that trade finance between one state-owned enterprise and a private company has amounted to over $5 trillion by continuing to roll over the same collateral several times. There’s lots of funny things that are happening in China. And when the whole thing unwinds it will be a disaster.

 

...

 

I think that investors are not sufficiently aware that the Chinese economy is far more important for other emerging economies than the United States because China is a large importer of resources. In other words, iron ore, copper, zinc (inaudible). And at the same time, they are a huge exporter to commodity producers of their own manufactured goods, as well as Korean exports. The commodity producers are much larger than Korean exports to the US or to the U (ph).

So if the Chinese economy slows down, commodity prices – industrial commodity prices are likely to remain under pressure. They already come down a lot. They remain under pressure and the resource producers have less money. In other words, the Brazilian goes into recession. The Middle East does not grow as much as before. Central Asia, Africa and so forth all contract, and then they buy less from China and you have a vicious cycle on the downside.

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Mon, 03/17/2014 - 22:53 | 4561709 butchtrucks
butchtrucks's picture

Mr. Putin did the right thing from his perspective. We have to look – put ourselves into his shoes. He did absolutely the right thing at the right time.

Yeah sure.  Just like Hitler did the right thing from his perspective when he invaded and annexed the Sudentland from the Czechs in the 1930s - using exactly the same excuse that Putin is using in Crimea - protecting his fellow country men.  Remind me again how that turned out...

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 23:03 | 4561747 adeptish
adeptish's picture

Well at one point the Wermacht were 20 miles from Moscow.

Get it?

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 23:18 | 4561787 WayBehind
WayBehind's picture

Hitler's biggest mistake was to fuck with Russians. Helloooooo Obama!

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 23:33 | 4561823 Overfed
Overfed's picture

Not exactly. His biggest mistake was overestimating the Wehrmacht and trying to fight a three-front war. Had he concentrated solely on Britain/Western Europe, finished that all up, taken a few years to regroup, and then gone on to the Soviet Union, I think the world would be very different place today. Perhaps we should be glad he tended to not listen to his generals.

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 23:43 | 4561847 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

plus there was the whole "master race" thingy. talk about a "club and you ain't in it."

No one denies Russia's "historical claim to the Crimea" (dating back to Catherine the Great actually)...and something completely denied as meaningful by of all people BOTH Kerry and Lavrov... "this be the wrong island, bro Putie."

Needless complications in a place (Mother Russia) that is almost impossible to govern. (the SSR folks did in fact do a good job by historical standards.)

My personal view is that as with Hitler (who delayed...and never made it...to Moscow) so with President Putin. "A quick shot straight to Kiev" to deal with the "trouble makers"...over and done.

Instead it's like watching the bad guys try and kill James Bond again.
"The could simply kill him...BUT INSTEAD!....

Tue, 03/18/2014 - 00:12 | 4561895 Overfed
Overfed's picture

I'm mostly Danish with no "mud blood" so I would probably be OK. Regarding Putin, I think he knows exactly what he is doing. He masterfullly counters every move Washington makes, in Ukraine as in Syria, and makes the West look foolish, simple, and barbaric. He may be a despot, but he is brilliant, and he has absolutely studied history and is determined to not make any stupid mistakes.

Tue, 03/18/2014 - 00:21 | 4561916 GoldSilverWolf
GoldSilverWolf's picture

Obama, McCain, and Kerry make themselves look foolish, simple, and barbaric.

Tue, 03/18/2014 - 00:22 | 4561921 Overfed
Overfed's picture

True dat.

Tue, 03/18/2014 - 02:53 | 4562047 zhandax
zhandax's picture

Faber usually comes across as reasoned and sensible, but here he diverges.  First, I have problems casting 'Russia moving to Crimea'; with a 95% vote from 73% voter participation to re-join their former sovereign; in a bad light.  I can't equate this to 'seizing'.  Secondly, "So if the Chinese economy slows down, commodity prices – industrial commodity prices are likely to remain under pressure."  While this is undoubtedly bad for speculators, Aussies, and real estate prices, it is not necessarily bad for businesses outside the mining, shipping and shadow banking ventures, and is certainly not bad for consumers.  It is, however, bad for the status quo locally, and possibly globally.  Wonder if he is really trying to say that helping consumers is useless if their bank deposits get vaporized.  IOW, does he still see a way for us to protect ourselves, or has he now joined Hendry in chearleading the ponzi?  Hendry has at least hinted he is looking for the fifth blow-off wave of a bubble.  I wish Faber would expound more on his new view.

Tue, 03/18/2014 - 02:57 | 4562073 Independent
Independent's picture

http://www.m2netlab.wlu.ca/directions-links/ukraine.html

Indoeuropeans have been in Crimea since at least 40,000 years ago.  Turks (tatars) are not Indoeuropean though by now they have mixed in pretty heavily.

Tue, 03/18/2014 - 07:32 | 4562273 Marge N Call
Marge N Call's picture

I believe the tatars mixed heavily with the Mongols during 10th and 11th century. Crimea was once part of the Golden Horde of Batu Kahn. Seem like people you didn't want to fuck with at the time.

Tue, 03/18/2014 - 07:46 | 4562297 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

There is a lot of history between Crimean Tatars and Russians--The Tatars being the bigger historical aholes almost 100% of the time.  Their days of Moscow burning, slave raiding, and selling Russians to the Turks are over.  But as long as they identify themselves as seperate and Muslim, they will be viewed with hostility. 

Tue, 03/18/2014 - 10:27 | 4562910 rubiconsolutions
rubiconsolutions's picture

Ron Paul wrote an op-ed for USA Today in which he said - "the purpose of the U.N. is to “develop friendly relations among nations based on respect for the principle of equal rights and self-determination of peoples.”" Note that the U.N. is devoted to "self-determination of peoples." Not people, but peoples. As in plural. The individual doesn't count. Unless you are part of a collective then you are simply marginalized in the minds of many including the United Nations. The individual who speaks uniquely and separately has no real power. Frankly I couldn't care less about what is going on in Crimea. I don't care about the 95% who voted for secession (allegedly), what I do care about is the man or woman who voted against it or didn't vote at all because they saw the folly of it all. Those are the people we should be concerned about.

Tue, 03/18/2014 - 02:00 | 4562023 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

'mostly Danish' news flash, after the Vikings finished raping their way across Europe, everyone from Ireland to N France to Russia is 'mostly Danish'...m'self likely included...

Tue, 03/18/2014 - 04:24 | 4562128 August
August's picture

The Danes, I believe, specialized in raping and looting to the South and West, while the hearty denizens of Småland, with a few hangers-on from further north, dealt with the Eastern peoples, ably assisting in the founding of the Rus, and looting northern Persia all by themselves.

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 13:52 | 4568489 Overfed
Overfed's picture

My ancestors probably stayed home raising cattle and making beer.

Tue, 03/18/2014 - 03:36 | 4562100 Volkodav
Volkodav's picture

When come under pressure, Russian will concentrate.

Russians are very clever

and not scared of much

Putin is no despot..Russia is more free in many ways...Russians are better off than ever

Tue, 03/18/2014 - 06:20 | 4562203 RafterManFMJ
RafterManFMJ's picture

Russia has a flat tax.
Amurika has a graduated income tax.

Say, one of those is the second plank in the 10
Planks of Communism. Hmmmm, which one though? Sure is a puzzler.

Tue, 03/18/2014 - 06:48 | 4562222 Serenity Now
Serenity Now's picture

Russians are caught in a demographic crunch.  They are dying out.  There is nothing they can do about it.

Tue, 03/18/2014 - 07:34 | 4562275 Optimusprime
Optimusprime's picture

Russians are caught in a demographic crunch.  They are dying out.  There is nothing they can do about it.

Silly comment.  In the abstract, there is a simple solution--have more babies.  In the concrete, it is happening.

Tue, 03/18/2014 - 07:40 | 4562284 Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

Americans are dying out but having more Hispanic babies

Tue, 03/18/2014 - 08:08 | 4562374 flapdoodle
flapdoodle's picture

TPTB have decided that Mexican immigrants make more docile and productive consumers than the white folks they are replacing in the US.

No doubt TPTB also see the Mexican immigrants, particularly the illegal ones who have the threat of deportation keeping them from questioning things very much, as much less of a threat to TPTB power as they do not carry around the historical meme of the "Constitution" or "American Freedom", only the weak, hollow shell of those memes force feed to them by the MSM propaganda apparatus and neo-con Deep State.

Tue, 03/18/2014 - 11:57 | 4563480 Muppet Pimp
Muppet Pimp's picture

Plus 1000

This is a most excellent and accurate observation. May I steal this to share with others?

I would like to point out the US ptb choice, while foul and certainly shows the highest level of disrespect for natives, is no match for thr disdain the UK ptb show towards their natives, as instead of docile mexicans they have imported some of the most aggressive, hostile humans around, primary sponsors of terrorism, record holders of most suicide bombings of any race, the dreaded sand people.

Tue, 03/18/2014 - 00:47 | 4561949 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

If he hadn't been on the Meth that his MD prescribed, he'd also have been a more stable and rational Hitler.

Bet ya didn't know THAT. And TPTB are not likely to want you to know.

Tue, 03/18/2014 - 01:43 | 4562011 known unknown
known unknown's picture

I don't think Stalin was going to wait for his turn. Germany was an ally at the time but if he allowed Hitler to finish off Britian he knew he was next. He was prepping for war  massing his troops on his border with Germany. Even so I believe Hitlers mistake was diverting his armies to seize Stalingrad. This prevented him from taking Moscow and allowed the weather and an ivigorated Russian army to finish him off.

Tue, 03/18/2014 - 03:01 | 4562075 Independent
Independent's picture

Not really Stalingrad was a big place of war production and a choke point for oil shipments up the Volga.  He did the right thing but still lost cause he fought a two front war,and Russia is so vast that it swallowed up his armies and his supply lines, also factor in one of the worst winters on record and being low on gas, those Germans always low on gas supplies lol.  Dont forget Napoleon got Moscow but still lost the war.

Tue, 03/18/2014 - 04:51 | 4562142 mrdenis
mrdenis's picture

"one of the worst winters on record" ...so did they call it global warming or climate change   in 1941 ?

Tue, 03/18/2014 - 03:23 | 4562088 Volkodav
Volkodav's picture

Victor Suvarov "Ice Breaker" or "The Chief Culprit"

not perfect, but as far as I know, no one else has presented full writing that Germany made preemptive attack, as Stalin moved forces into offensive positions for planned offensive within weeks.

This one of two reasons why more numerous and heavily equipped Soviet force was damaged so badly.

Other was superior German tactics.

I have met participants who confirmed Suvarov's claims.

 

Tue, 03/18/2014 - 03:53 | 4562113 ILLILLILLI
ILLILLILLI's picture

>> Perhaps we should be glad he tended to not listen to his generals.

You make a very good point there. Churchill was -very- lucky that Hitler did not listen to his generals when the British Army was trapped at Dunkirk. The generals wanted to wipe out the British since they had them trapped on the beach. Hitler held off because he believed that the German people and the British people had something in common...a shared bond of some nature.

Churchill gets far too much credit and admiration...he was a gambler and an adventurer (in the worst possible sense). He's simply lucky he didn't get his ass handed to him by the Germans.

Tue, 03/18/2014 - 04:11 | 4562122 Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

He almost did in May 1940 because there were discussions with the British Ambassador in washington about removing Churchill. There were also moves by RAB Butler at the Foreign Office to engage in peace talks with Dahlerus.

Churchill started bombing German cities starting with Berlin to prevent peace overtures

Tue, 03/18/2014 - 04:25 | 4562132 Volkodav
Volkodav's picture

Churchill was a war criminal.

Tue, 03/18/2014 - 07:17 | 4562251 Abi Normal
Abi Normal's picture

LOL, and you are an idiot!  Hitler was the war criminal (so was Stalin and Mao), you carnival barker you!

Tue, 03/18/2014 - 09:07 | 4562575 effendi
effendi's picture

Churchill wasn't just awar criminal. He was involved in war profeteering. About 10 years ago in BBC Peoples War (recollections of the war) one of the writers recalled how he investigated a case of substandard surfacing by a contractor of a RAF airfield. He was called off by his superiors when it was foundout that Winston was one of those involved in the rip-off. The firm contracting had a name that was made up of the initials of its owners with the first letter being W (for Winston).

So he might of praised those gallant few airmen who saved Britain in the Battle of Brittain but he also sold them out. 

Tue, 03/18/2014 - 18:21 | 4565386 Abi Normal
Abi Normal's picture

oh, really?  And one anecdotal case and he is a war criminal? Was he actively running the company then? Day to day decisions? No, just had his name attached to it as an investor...roflmao, that was WEAK stuff you put out there fluffy!

Tue, 03/18/2014 - 06:14 | 4562194 Harrison
Harrison's picture

Stalin was planning to betray Hitler, just as Hitler was planning to betray Stalin. Their timing differed by only a few days; if Hitler hadn't moved when he did, Stalin would have moved in a week or so.

There was no option to finish off western Europe first.

Tue, 03/18/2014 - 08:15 | 4562400 flapdoodle
flapdoodle's picture

The British were of course doing everything they could with their intelligence services to accelerate Hitler and Stalin going after each other - they saw that as perhaps their only real hope since US entry into the war was still problematical - remember that the Nazis declared war on the US first!

 

Tue, 03/18/2014 - 08:50 | 4562516 zionhead
zionhead's picture

Obama only fucks with Reggie, to think that Obama had a thing to do with UKRAINE is a stupid narrative.

Look at Samantha Power, and her Hubby Cass Sunstein, they got Obama dressed up a sock-puppet.

AIPAC from Chicago, put Obama in the white-house, and so long as he smiles and play's the part he gets to 'play prez' if he break's role, then BIDEN takes over.

Tue, 03/18/2014 - 04:19 | 4562126 MythicalFish
MythicalFish's picture

This "China implications" talk is MSM B/S. When the Russians moved into Crimea they were greeted with flags and cheers. If Chinese boots come to, say, Taiwan I do not expect a similar welcome. The Chinese know this, their society is not law based but relationships based, which sometimes makes common sense come easier.

Tue, 03/18/2014 - 08:21 | 4562427 kita27
kita27's picture

seriously, the Chinese have just been good global citizens because they are trying follow international law?  Now like monkey see monkey do they may sieze territory also?  give me a break! This is the Chinese we are talking about.  They know full well that when their military is strong enough they will pump it fair up the ass of US influence until it hightails back across the Pacific. They will then dominate the asia pacific and who knows where else,  oops, maybe they will copy what the US has done over the last 60 years.

 

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 23:04 | 4561749 whotookmyalias
whotookmyalias's picture

If only Taiwan had the natural gas fields the Crimea does, you could expect the US to react with the same time proven harsh words as the Chinese invent protests and fix an election.

You know this story jumped the shark when Marketwatch headlines announce that stock markets around the world are up now that the situation with the Ukraine is settled.

Maybe the Ukraine doesn't know it's settled yet, but the financial markets have taken them out of the decision

Yippee Ki Yay Mutha Fuckers!

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 23:06 | 4561758 JuliaS
JuliaS's picture

Does referendum count as an invasion or did I miss something?

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 23:24 | 4561802 butchtrucks
butchtrucks's picture

LOL.  You've outed yourself as a Kremlin sock puppet.  Or maybe all those Russian troops and tanks in Crimea the last few weeks are just a hologram?

I'll give credit to Putin - he's good at creating 'facts on the ground'.  He knows the US and EU have no effective way of responding.  Wonder how the Ukrainians feel now about giving their nukes back to the Russkis in the '90s.

Tue, 03/18/2014 - 00:14 | 4561908 in4mayshun
in4mayshun's picture

Your comment is somewhat comical because you speak with such disdain about Putin/Russia, like the US is not as bad or worse.

Tue, 03/18/2014 - 01:02 | 4561967 TungstenBars
TungstenBars's picture

Keep drinking the MSM American cool aid. The cold war ended ya know, the Ruskies aren't coming for your kids. 

Tue, 03/18/2014 - 06:17 | 4562197 SunRise
SunRise's picture

The U.S. Debtliner #777 beat the Russians to our kids futures. 

Tue, 03/18/2014 - 04:35 | 4562136 August
August's picture

The Ukrainian nation has nothing to gain from trying to slug it out with nuclear weapons, toe-to-toe with the Rooskies.

Of course the Ukraine is upwind of Russia, so maybe that would give them an edge....

Tue, 03/18/2014 - 05:09 | 4562152 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

Did you just call for "venting"?! As if there isn't enough being vented at fuckushima! ;-)

Tue, 03/18/2014 - 08:03 | 4562354 jerry_theking_lawler
jerry_theking_lawler's picture

You obviously haven't walked into an airport lately and seen the USSA gestapo, or the SWAT team enforcing a warrant for pot smokers (which is legal in  some states), or you haven't been issued a citation from a robot (red light camera) that can't prove or disprove you were the driver, or you haven't been recorded and proscecuted (yet) by the FBI/NSA/CIA for your thoughts and actions regarding how you are governed.....

but you will see it all soon.

Tue, 03/18/2014 - 08:19 | 4562414 flapdoodle
flapdoodle's picture

Nudelman, is that you? I expect your boss Netanyahu is pretty pissed right now since his Iranian bombing run is getting nowhere...

Mon, 03/17/2014 - 23:07 | 4561760 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Crimea never truly left Russia.

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