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Bonds & The Dollar Ignore Equity "Putin Deja Vu" Exuberance

Tyler Durden's picture




 

US equity markets are up around 2% from Friday's close - extending yesterday's hope-filled gains on the back of Vladimir Putin not nuke-ing the world this morning and lower-than-expected inflation prompting hope for moar free money tomorrow. This jump is a ridiculous deja vu all over again of Putin's first press conference. Bear in mind that the USD is unchanged on the week and Treasury yields are up a mere 1-2bps - so hardly a resounding risk-on conviction. Following yesterday's epic low volume, today was little better. Copper was flat as Oil prices rose back towards $100. Gold and silver were pummeled - just for good measure (gold's biggest 2-day drop in 3 months) - as was VIX (which took over the role of S&P 500 driver from AUDJPY after Europe closed). The afternoon saw VIX diverging (higher ahead of tomorrow's FOMC) from rising stocks. For the week, USD unch, Bonds unch, Stocks +2%, Gold -2%.

 

Deja Vu all over again...

 

As AUDJPY ruled until Europe closed

 

with VIX strongly in control from there - until 2pmET for that late-day divergence, which is worrisome...

 

While stocks are exuberant, Treasuries are not...

 

Credit markets have rallied but merely back to pre-Putin PR 1.0 levels...

 

And nor is the US Dollar... plenty of vol here but the USD s almost dead flat...

 

As gold and silver mirror equity strength...

 

Gold's biggest 2-day drop in 3 months... as it looks like gold will have "golden cross" tomorrow as the 50DMA crosses above the 200DMA

 

Charts: Bloomberg

Bonus Chart: Something happened today... USDJPY and Bonds stayed in sync as stocks disconnected

 

Bonus BonusChart: A little reminder of the concept of mean-reversion - and how it is gone from the mainstream media's vocabulary... (h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer)

 

Bonus Bonus Bonus Chart: The Japanese stock market is not enjoying the exuberance of global stocks...

 

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Tue, 03/18/2014 - 16:05 | 4564899 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

Dollar is looking over the edge of a cliff....

Tue, 03/18/2014 - 16:16 | 4564920 Say What Again
Say What Again's picture

I don't know what to make of this, but the TICK for most of the major averages was making wider than average swings today.  Some of the intra-day readings were as extreme as you see at the OPEN or CLOSE.

But the bigger question is; who is buying this market at these levels, with all the political chaos going on?

Tue, 03/18/2014 - 16:22 | 4564956 BandGap
BandGap's picture

Literally heard a CNBC talking head say that markets were buoyed by Putin telling the world he would not go beyond Crimea. WHAT FUCKING CHAOS?

We have stepped through a rip in space-time.

Tue, 03/18/2014 - 16:06 | 4564901 somecallmetimmah
somecallmetimmah's picture

Pfffft!  Putin's on the other side of the friggin' planet!  What harm can he possibly do?!?

Tue, 03/18/2014 - 16:10 | 4564909 VulpisVulpis
VulpisVulpis's picture

Bonus Bonus Bonus Chart!! It's like Christmas in March!

Tue, 03/18/2014 - 16:11 | 4564915 jtz5
jtz5's picture

Just once I would like to read "Bonds & credit up, stocks not buying it."

Tue, 03/18/2014 - 16:13 | 4564923 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

101.40 ......I missed the chart with Gold over $1400 ?????

Tue, 03/18/2014 - 16:51 | 4565084 skwid vacuous
skwid vacuous's picture

just buy stocks-  very simple game plan- like late 60's Packers power sweep right...it works until Yellen says change the play goyz!

Tue, 03/18/2014 - 17:20 | 4565165 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

I think George Carlin really did say it best actually:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B7LBSDQ14eA
"Vuja De people. Vuja De....

Tue, 03/18/2014 - 19:06 | 4565557 Jack4952
Jack4952's picture

I am 50% in the S&P 500 and 50% in physical GOLD (in my possession).One goes up and the other goes down - and no one seems to have any rational explanations.

Is there ANY true market valuation anymore?

 

 

Tue, 03/18/2014 - 19:33 | 4565641 moneybots
moneybots's picture

"Is there ANY true market valuation anymore?"

 

1+1 still = 2.

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