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Janet Yellen's Full Press Conference Transcript
Much has been said about Yellen's less than stellar first press conference so we will let her own words do most of the talking. First, from the transcript of her prepared remarks and the following Q&A, here are some highlights.
First, the word count:
- Market(s): 35
- Economy: 25
- Weather: 7
- Inflation: 58
- Deflation: 1
The word cloud:
Goldman's take of the press conference (as opposed to the statement which we summarized earlier):
BOTTOM LINE: Chair Yellen's first post-meeting press conference came across as slightly more hawkish than expected.
MAIN POINTS:
1. When asked how to interpret the new guidance that the fed funds rate would remain in the current 0 to 25 basis point range for a "considerable time after the asset purchase program ends," Chair Yellen stated that "the language in the statement … probably means something on the order of six months." Assuming tapering continues at a pace of $10bn per meeting, this suggests rate hikes could begin as early as mid-2015.
2. Asked how to explain the hawkish shift in the "dots," Yellen stated that "the labor market more broadly I think has improved a little more than we might have expected," but went on to say that "I think that one should not look to the dot plot so to speak as the primary way in which the committee wants to or is speaking about policy to the public at large."
3. Explaining the statement that the fed funds rate may remain at a below-normal level even as employment and inflation approach "mandate-consistent levels," Yellen mainly appealed to persistent headwinds from the financial crisis, and did not explicitly mention optimal control considerations as she has in the past.
4. Regarding distortions from the weather, she stated that "it's an important factor. It's not the only factor," in explaining the weaker data. She showed a refreshing amount of candor by noting that "we probably overdid the optimism in January, so in some sense our views have moved around here a little bit."
5. Asked about wage inflation, she said that 3-4% annual gains in wages would be more normal, in her view, consistent with the average rate of wage increase seen in the last business cycle expansion. She described current wage inflation as "running at 2%."
6. She was somewhat dismissive of recent arguments that the short-term unemployment rate is a more important measure of slack for wage and price inflation than the headline unemployment rate. Specifically, she said that "I think it would be tremendously premature to adopt any notion that says that that is an accurate read, on either how inflation is determined or what constitutes slack in the labor market."
And while the punchline was already noted, namely the "6 month" statement:
So, the language that we use in this statement is considerable, period. So, I -- I, you know, this is the kind of term it's hard to define, but, you know, it probably means something on the order of around six months or that type of thing. But, you know, it depends -- what the statement is saying is it depends what conditions are like.
... which incidentally said nothing that the statement didn't already note, namley that if the tapering ends in the fall the first hike would be in mid-2015, or precisely as the "dots" suggested it would, she did have several other notable observations, some of which are highlighted below.
And the full transcript (pdf)
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BULLSHIT
She mentioned inflation more than anything. Remind me again why a currency continually losing its value is good for the average person?
Because without it, bankers wouldn't get seigniorage income and then we wouldn't have bankers.
Oh, wait...
Where is the word "gold"?
Where is the word "audit"?
Right underneath "Pan-generational wealth extractor" and "perpetual enslavement mechanism".
I stopped paying much attention to the talking puppets a long time ago. its all lies. the FED is simply a criminal fraud that inflicts debt slavery on the citizens of the United States. I refuse to give the FED or its talking head any legitimacy. They should all be locked up or worse. they are common criminals and should not be treated as anything other than common criminals, deserving of contempt.
*YELLEN SAYS `HIGH PRIORITY' TO RESOLVE `TOO BIG TO FAIL'
Yellen agrees with Lloyd Bankfine and Jamie Diamonds that the main problem is that they don't have enough access to cheap and easy liquidity to prevent failure...
if you look at chair trolls face from the right angle, she looks like blankfein with a wig... same crazed look.
You give it legitimacy by bending over and grabbing your ankles for the IRS. Voting won't change things. What's the latest on this mega rally to DC in May?...
Surely common criminals really don't deserve to be compared to these?!
Besides, the bitch didn't even have the decency to bring fresh baked cookies........
Inflation...sounds gassy.
Will they just inflate the tires ? Will they burst ?
(banquet conversation between Yellen and the wives of the FED leaders)
Where is the word "fraud"
Where is the word "prosecution"
The font for the word cloud should be Comic Sans.
Or Zapf Dingbats.
I'm with Dingbats - Comic Sans is nasty and anyway, sans means 'without' and I'm sure these guys ARE comic.
And the Theme from the Benny Hill Show continues
Why does the Most Powerful Woman on Earth look like a marshmallow sculpture of Newt Gingrich that got put in the microwave on high? If the goal is to traduce the masses into faith in your paper scientism, why not make her hawt? Blythe Masters hawt?
"Run" is definitely underweighted.
saying bond vigilantes, is like saying hanibal to roman child.$ back up but still below 80
Labor has 3 different meanings and they probably all apply in this case...since Yellen may give birth to a Babylonian collapse...or the Kraken.
How in the fuck do they think the labor markets improved? Because we have more on citizens dropping out of the system? David Stockman was on CNBC via telephone, and he was asked why labor markets are improving and he totally missed the mark.
They have to perpetuate the lies, a united front so to speak.
That is the first thing I thought. When he agreed that the labor markets were improving instead of pointing out the reality he lost all credibility with me.
Hmm...David is sharp.
Only defense is that David is trying to reduce the QE...so David might actually agree (in public) the labor market is improving...so that there is more word clouds saying that we can reduce QE and have none by year-end 2014.
David might be working it that way...I am sure the part-time jobs are up, but overall income is not doing well.
David Stockman and Ron Paul might both be candidates to go in and end the FED (as we know it)...in next few years.
If Rand Paul makes it to VP...then his dad might get the Treasury or FED...could happen.
Seems like Ol' Yellin is flickin her hairy chin at the BLS bs.
- nevermind -
Relax, you are probably not the first to wonder if her tits are real......
Post-Yellen the DOW, S**T&PEE, QQQ look like a cascading collapse...how will the HFT algo's respond ...or is that a HFT avalanche we see ?
Many 50% retracement dead cat bounces...off each ledge.
Too many "free" electrons ! Will the multi-plier burn out ?
Funny, the FED is still trying to relate the Markets to the Economy.
Their bankster handlers want it that way.
Weather? Please.
Or as Bob Dylan put it, "Fools trying to manipulate Satan".
Leveraged asset deflation is the boogeyman the Fed fears. All else is bullshit.
Leveraged asset deflation will probably start in China because their's is so much larger and Chinese have been much more 'creative'.
Unless there is an avalanche collapse in Wall Street first.
Wicked ping-pong game.
I noticed she reffered to the FEDs mandate as full employment and 2% inflation. It seemed like a deliberate departure from "price stability". Looks like she is keen on protecting us from stable (or rising) purchasing power.
2% inflation!... ROTFLMAO!
Children under the age of 7 count better.
Did anyone notice how she had a constant creepy manerism going with her eyes. I think it helps hide the lies.
She obviously didn't have her lucky strapon on.
just in case some readers happen to baffle...
'strapon' (n): a strap-on dildo (also strap-on, strapon or dildo harness) is a dildo designed to be worn, usually with a harness, during sexual activity.
lol
My take on this is a little different from most I am reading here. Yellen actually delivered the points that CNBC's Fed/Treasury mouthpiece Steve Liesman had "predicted". What fooled all of the "experts" was that the markets were quick to interpret it as hawkish. I see it as the Fed surrendering control of interest rates, particularly the 5 and 10 year rates which immediately shot upward even before the press conference. That's a signal by the bond market that they want rates to go up. That was enough to start utilities, MLPs and other interest-sensitive stocks to start tumbling early in the morning. They didn't suffer the sharp sell-off later at Yellen's "six months after" comment.
I don't see Yellen as having blown it but rather, I see her as beginning her efforts to condition the markets for the inevitable. Interest rates WILL be going up under her and everyone knows it. By predicating much of the Fed's decision on a manipulated (unreliable) date point like the unemployment rate means the Fed itself is allowing itself to be manipulated. That can also be said of much of the government data the Fed relies on. So going from auto-pilot to VFR is actually a smart thing to do. Dropping that datapoint is kind of hinting that the Fed might be going back mostly to its original single mandate of price stability and government statistics about that are highly manipulated too. VFR might be what she is planning there too. She is NOT going to bluntly state that the government numbers are just plain wrong. But she might be planning policy on that assumption.
She also alluded to fiscal policy as an issue too but you will NEVER hear a Fed Chairman be blunt about the problem with Congressional profligacy. But she definitely shifted much of the pressure for solving unemployment back to Congress today and that is a good thing.
I am actually pleased with today all things considered. This sell-off, if it turns into a healthy correction, will be constructive. She definitely changed the narrative and IMHO, for the good. Let's see if she "clarifies" what she meant in the next couple of days regarding whether the Fed will begin raising interest rates in mid-2015 or at the consensus assumption of the end of 2015.
FUCK YOU, JANET YELLEN!!!
;-)
Anyone in their right mind just looks at this stuff to gauge how insane the financial 'system' has become.
Faith and Trust... ????
IN WHAT???!!!
Her buttplug obviously leaked a bit.
Good gracious.....it was painful. Yellen the felon....... Even though she looks like the daughter of a turtle and Boris Y (Pres until 99 R)...it does not matter.
At least Greenbubble had vocab that could baffle the masses.
Good luck to anyone that believes any ot this bullshit
If a Yellen falls in the forest, does anyone give a shit if they hear it?
Yellen for Miss America !!!!!!!!
/sarc/
I think some former victors would demolish her in a debate about real money.
End the Fed.
If interest rates go up, what happens to the current trillions of debt in the US?
Perhaps the bankster muppet could answer the following vital question: HOW IS IT EVEN POSSIBLE TO MAINTAIN A VITAL MONEY CIRCLATION WITHOUT ACCUMULATING INSOLUBLE DEBT?
We do not deny there is a debt, but not to the banking system who gave up nothing of legal prior posession (conmmensurable consideration) in the puported creation of money. Therefore interest is unjustified and because every economy subject to interest is terminal we need to get rid of banking altogether. We do not needs banks who merely intervene as publishers in our affairs at eventually terminal cost. #fraude #exploitation #terminal All we need is an accuonting system to keep track of our promissory notes between eachother free of interest. No inflation , no deflation, and no irreversable multiplication of falsified debt into terminal debt through unjustified interest. Google Mathematically Perfected Economy/Currency