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From Quantitative Easing To Qualitative Guidance: What To Expect From The Fed Today

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The FOMC is now meeting for the first time with Janet Yellen as Chair. Goldman's US team expects the FOMC to deliver an accommodative message...alongside a continued tapering of asset purchases. However, they note, their market views here are likely to shift little in response, as much of that dovishness is arguably already priced, particularly in US rates. SocGen notes that "qualitative guidance" will probably consist of two components: the FOMC’s forecast for the fed funds rate (aka “the dots”) providing a baseline scenario, and a descriptive component signalling the elasticity of this rate path to the underlying economic outlook. SocGen also warns that this transition is worrisome for inflation in 2015. But BofA suggests this is not  problem as The Fed will indicate the US economy "lift-off" in late-2015 will save us all.

 

 

Via Goldman Sachs,

Some accommodative changes expected from the FOMC later today

The FOMC is now meeting for the first time with Janet Yellen as Chair. In addition to the usual post-meeting statement release later today, there will also be the quarterly release of the Summary of Economic Projections and a press conference with Chair Yellen. The current backdrop presents several challenges for the Fed. The US growth data have slowed, perhaps because of weather (our own models suggest that about ½ of the 1pp decline in implied real GDP growth is weather-related), but expectations remain firm that growth will accelerate later this year. The unemployment rate has declined sharply and is only two-tenths of a percent away from the Fed’s stated 6.5% target. And the FOMC has already embarked on a tapering of asset purchases, currently at about $10bn/month.

Given this backdrop, and under the guidance of Chair Yellen, our US Economics team expects the FOMC to deliver an accommodative message. They will likely acknowledge weather effects, but only partly, in describing current economic conditions and they are likely to continue to taper asset purchase at the current pace. Alongside this, we expect three other shifts that, taken together, are marginally more accommodative.

First, the FOMC’s long-run unemployment and funds rate projections may both decline.

 

Second, we expect two participants to move their target dates for the first rate hike (the so-called “dots”) further out.

 

Third, we expect the FOMC to move towards a more qualitative description of the labour market conditions needed to shift to a less accommodative policy stance.

This qualitative guidance could occur alongside the current 6.5% unemployment rate threshold or in place of it.

Despite these expected shifts from the Fed, our current assessment of where key macro-driven asset markets are likely to head over the medium term is not particularly captive to the outcome of today’s meeting. This is in part because some markets – rates in particular – have already reflected an accommodative Fed stance, leaving them relatively more exposed to the expected pick-up in US growth, and in part because other macro themes are likely to remain in focus, such as the ongoing adjustment process in EM assets and China-related weakness.

Longer-dated US rates vulnerable to better growth outcomes; dovish surprise unlikely

Turning first to the US rate market directly, with Dec 2015 Fed funds at 60bp and Dec 2016 Fed funds at 160bp, there is some room for a limited rally at the very front end. But Fed dovishness is well appreciated by the market, and short rates have already rallied over the last few months. Longer-dated US rates ought to be more connected to the US growth outlook, and here our bias is to be short. As Francesco Garzarelli and the Rates team have recently argued, US 10-year yields hovering around 2.7% is below our forecast for the end of Q2 at 3.1%, and we expect better US growth outcomes to push yields higher from here. From a trading perspective, our focus so far this year has been on the belly of the US curve via two trading recommendations, one tactical – recommending longs on the June-15 Short Sterling contract (LM5) against shorts on the June-15 Eurodollar contract (EDM5) – and one a strategic 'Top Trade' – recommending a long EUR swap (EONIA) 5y rate position vs. a short in 5y Treasuries.

More USD strength likely ahead, despite an accommodative Fed...

Despite a potential dovish tilt from the Fed, our tactical FX views are more geared towards incremental US strength relative to other majors, not weakness. Specifically, in the near term, our FX team has greatest conviction in USD strength against the Yen, CAD and AUD, as US growth bounces, the BoJ pivots to a more aggressively dovish stance, and China growth and commodity market headwinds remain in place.

The near-term EUR and GBP paths from here are less clear, although our inclination is for a shift towards USD strength. In both markets a good deal of USD weakness has already been priced, in the case of the EUR in part owing to a lack of ECB action, and in the case of the GBP in part due to a better patch of UK growth. However, with the EUR nearing 1.40, the top of our forecast range, ECB President Draghi’s recent rhetoric indicating that FX constraints are on his radar screen, and US data expected to improve, over the medium term we expect the USD to gain ground against both these currencies.

although EM assets may feel some relief temporarily

Over the last 18 months or so, US easing has, episodically, shielded EM rates and FX from their fundamental headwinds. These patches of relief have, thus far, proven only temporary, with structural needs to rebalance and domestic growth concerns ultimately the more important drivers of EM asset performance. This is our current view of EM market risks heading into the FOMC as well.

First and foremost, it is unclear at best if there will be any incremental US rate relief or if Fed dovishness is already fully appreciated by markets. And even if there is some incremental easing to be priced, EM headwinds remain intact. China growth outcomes continue to disappoint, and as our EM team recently demonstrated, that is only partially priced in many exposed markets. Beyond exposure to China weakness, which should abate somewhat as we go through the year, the degree of internal rebalancing still needed in several places implies significantly more market adjustments yet to come.

DM equities: An asset class for all seasons

DM equities are the one place where incremental Fed easing and the likelihood of a US growth recovery both push in the same direction. True, the S&P 500 is nearly back to all-time highs. With our Wavefront Consumer Growth and GDP Growth baskets mostly range-bound thus far in 2014, weather worries have been mostly absent, but so has growth optimism. Support has mostly come from easy financial conditions and still-supportive risk sentiment. So a pick-up in growth, incrementally more easing of financial conditions or a combination of the two should be enough to keep pushing DM equities higher. Indeed, our US strategists still expect modest S&P upside this year. And tactically, we are expressing our upbeat equity market view via a recommendation to be long the German DAX index, which had underperformed markedly over the last few weeks and could benefit from any FOMC surprise later today or better US growth news later this week, and as weather effects roll off.

 

SocGen is a little less exuberant but lays out the details of what to expect from qualitative guidance and warns of inflation concerns in 2015,

What will qualitative guidance look like?

It has been 15 months since the Fed switched from calendar guidance to one based on economic thresholds. Now that the 6.5% unemployment threshold has become virtually obsolete, the FOMC is shifting to a new framework. Qualitative guidance will probably consist of two components: the FOMC’s forecast for the fed funds rate (aka “the dots”) providing a baseline scenario, and a descriptive component signalling the elasticity of this rate path to the underlying economic outlook. Over the past year, “the dots” have been very inelastic to data surprises, and we expect this to continue. Indeed, at this week’s meeting, we expect that the Fed will lower its unemployment rate projections, yet keep its rate forecasts largely unchanged. The Fed will probably explain this away by pointing to hidden slack in the labour market.

What to expect this week – a laundry list

Asset purchases to be reduced by $10bn to $55bn.

 

We expect the Fed to drop the 6.5% unemployment threshold, or at least start phasing it out.

 

The threshold will be replaced with a qualitative description of conditions for rate hikes. We expect something along the lines of: The Committee expects that the exceptionally low rate will be appropriate at least as long as unemployment remains elevated and inflation remains low. In judging the amount of labour market slack the Committee will consider a number of statistics, including labour force participation, part-time employment, and long-term unemployment.

 

The Fed’s GDP and inflation forecasts are unlikely to change at all, but the unemployment rate projections will likely be revised down (we assume by 0.2% for YE 2015 and by 0.1% for YE 2016).

 

“The dots” are unlikely to change, with the median forecast still at 0.75% for the end of 2015 and 1.75% for the end of 2016. The median may be quoted in the FOMC statement itself.

All else equal, such an outcome should be viewed as more accommodative at the margin. In the chart below, we demonstrate this visually by calculating the policy gap for the March meeting, based on the assumptions outlined above. The policy gap is the difference between prescribed rates and the FOMC median rate projection, measured about ten quarters ahead.

By guiding towards an even wider policy gap, the Fed will be reinforcing the current growth momentum. But if, like us, you believe that the participation rate drop is unlikely to be reversed and the unemployment rate is “real” then this should also be viewed as raising inflation risks for 2015 and beyond.

 

BofAML's take is similar with an "escape velocity" recvery expected in late-2015...

The March FOMC meeting will be the first with Janet Yellen as Chair. In addition to the usual statement, this meeting will also feature updates to the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and a post-FOMC press conference. Top of the agenda will be revising the Fed’s forward guidance.

 

We expect the numerical thresholds to be dropped in favor of more “qualitative guidance” that communicates the Fed’s support for a prolonged period until rate hikes begin, a slow pace of tightening, and a low terminal rate relative to history. We expect the FOMC will note that they intend to look at a broad range of labor market indicators, as well as inflation and financial stability issues, to guide their decisions on interest rate policy.

 

We also see some chance that the Fed will modify the SEP to better support forward guidance. One or two hawkish Fed dissents from the new forward guidance language are possible. Overall, in our view this shift in guidance structure should have little bearing on market pricing of the tightening cycle, which appears to coincide with the SEP “dot plot” that suggests a mid- to late-2015 “lift-off” date.

+++++++++++++++++
So, in summary, Fed will shift to highly accomodative (sounding) forward-guidance (because they've nailed their projections so well in the past), continue the taper come hell or high water, bonds are priced for this but stocks are not... inflation is a fear in 2015 but "escape velocity" growth will save us from that problem...

 

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Wed, 03/19/2014 - 09:13 | 4567114 PlusTic
PlusTic's picture

Expect lies, propaganda and a stock market rally!

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 09:18 | 4567135 Charles Nelson ...
Charles Nelson Reilly's picture

you forgot a smash on gold as well

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 09:33 | 4567208 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

stocks begin their long awaited correction today.  20% minimum takes this pig to 1500.

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 09:37 | 4567218 Groundhog Day
Groundhog Day's picture

Well I for one have my 1900 hat ready with some bubbly on ice.  May the party go on forever

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 09:59 | 4567300 wallstreetapost...
wallstreetaposteriori's picture

Its all qualitative anymore... print this.. bullish this.... earnings? revenues?  what do those matter?  Does the fed even remember the taylor rule?

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 11:15 | 4567695 Nostradamus
Nostradamus's picture

The guidance in the message above is wrong.  Should read 30 bil. in treasuries and 25 bil. in MBS.

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 09:21 | 4567151 The Axe
The Axe's picture

what is more powerful? Putin's Red Army? or the NY Fed's VXX smashing Bloomberg terminal?    BOOM

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 09:15 | 4567119 johnQpublic
johnQpublic's picture

threadjack: anyone know the name of that card game that always seems to show the falseflag attacs?

any jetliner cards yet unplayed?

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 09:15 | 4567120 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

fuck the fed. fuck yellen (no, not literally.  yuck).  another day, another batch of lies.  and lets not forget the press conference where the "journalists" can only ask pre-approved questions and the fucking cunt has the answers memorized.  here's hoping she forgets to take her meds today and slips....

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 09:18 | 4567132 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

some year they might be right, growth huh? I think you need green shoots first before growth, NO?

 

i"nflation is a fear in 2015 but "escape velocity" growth will save us from that problem..."

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 09:21 | 4567150 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

What escape velocity do you need from the Black Hole the FedRes is digging ?

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 09:16 | 4567124 news printer
news printer's picture
What To Expect?

nothing new

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 09:24 | 4567172 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Expect a lot of bathroom breaks. These little old ladies can't hold their bladders for shit !

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 09:18 | 4567134 PlusTic
PlusTic's picture

fuck the FED, anyone watching copper melt down here...

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 09:18 | 4567136 1stepcloser
1stepcloser's picture

Let me know when she says we are selling treasuries and MBS...  I have my popcorn ready..

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 09:23 | 4567165 youngman
youngman's picture

and Belgium is buying them ALL

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 09:26 | 4567177 1stepcloser
1stepcloser's picture

Right the mighty Belgium... They must have a lot at stake in the Greatest Ponzi scheme ever..

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 09:27 | 4567183 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Belgium is just flaunting it's wealth around now.

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 11:53 | 4567895 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

Yellen won't let Belgium pull-out...they are 'all in'.    Yellen is a silver tipped cougar...and the banksters see easy prey.

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 09:19 | 4567138 sudzee
sudzee's picture

Was Yellen installed so that failure of the FED can be blamed on women.

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 09:20 | 4567144 PlusTic
PlusTic's picture

yup, same as HP and GM...typical path

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 09:21 | 4567148 1stepcloser
1stepcloser's picture

Just like the failure of the USSA can be blamed on a Kenyan 

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 09:29 | 4567196 Mad Mohel
Mad Mohel's picture

Is that motherfucker an albino? As if she wasn't enough of a creepy old bitch.

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 09:49 | 4567275 CharlieMike
CharlieMike's picture

Mr. Yellen is a woman?

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 10:06 | 4567330 optimator
optimator's picture

Only her doctor knows for sure, and sometimes he must wonder.

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 10:28 | 4567443 Bonapartist
Bonapartist's picture

I find her/him/it quite fetching.

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 09:20 | 4567141 krispkritter
krispkritter's picture

Did you guys have to post that with a pic?  I just threw up in my Cheerios...

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 09:20 | 4567147 skwid vacuous
skwid vacuous's picture

I just unplugged my TV, otherwise it might not survive the afternoon...

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 09:22 | 4567153 youngman
youngman's picture

800 plus words that will really say nothing...lots of CYA words...and out words....nothing set in stone...wishy washy words.....

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 09:23 | 4567162 1stepcloser
1stepcloser's picture

They should just tweet... UB Fucked..

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 11:51 | 4567883 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

Numb, cross-eyed and painless.

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 09:22 | 4567158 pragmatic hobo
pragmatic hobo's picture

priced-in? what do you mean?

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 09:25 | 4567168 asteroids
asteroids's picture

Ooops, never mind.

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 09:32 | 4567197 all-priced-in
all-priced-in's picture

I have a really hard time listening to Yellen talk - everything about her just grates on me.

 

But the way she says "asset purchases" makes me cringe.

 

 

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 09:32 | 4567204 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

Paul: "is Gold money...?"

Berstanke: (paaaaaaaaaaaause) NO.

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 09:43 | 4567243 Rising Sun
Rising Sun's picture

thanks for the comments GS

 

Yellen is a deceptive cunt much like all the other central bankers

 

This bitch is going to jack POMO, not cut it.  Markets to all time highs.

 

Corporate results don't matter.  Shit in a bag and IPO it - you'll make billions.

 

Nice fucking planet we built.

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 09:44 | 4567252 orangedrinkandchips
orangedrinkandchips's picture

Jesus, I dont think I can handle looking at her rat face for another fucking 10 years!

 

But ugly bitch that looks like a rat.

 

Ben was bad, she is worse. another 10 years....fuck.

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 10:30 | 4567454 Bonapartist
Bonapartist's picture

She may get "Mussolinied" way before her term is up.

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 09:45 | 4567257 vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

Here is what I wexpect.

 

The Fed is dreaming if they think they can happy talk everybody into thinking non-Fed printed money is going to buy up the $1T in bonds they buy each year.  At some point the taper reality is going reach a tipping point and rates will pop higher.  Panic will start.  Then the Fed will lose control of the medium and long rates no matter how much they print.

 

Next month?...summer?...fall?

 

Supply and demand.  Everybody forgets Econ 101.

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 10:27 | 4567440 elwind45
elwind45's picture

Econ 101 has been replaced by economy One as in there can be only one?

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 09:51 | 4567280 john milton
john milton's picture

she better give me my dose of clenbuterol, we havent had a new ath for many days so its better to give it to me today, ben was way more effective than this bitch, whats the point of fed head like that, keeping investors many days without new highs, she should go back to fed school to study 101 of using vixslams, ppt assistance, carrytrades etc. This feeling of highs with clenbuterol is nice, but having hard on all the time is little bit annoying

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 09:52 | 4567282 Cygnus Nigri
Cygnus Nigri's picture

Fuck you Yellen!

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 10:05 | 4567322 AcidRastaHead
AcidRastaHead's picture

Thanks to today's fast and efficient markets we can at least take solace in the fact that a few mumbles out of the mouth of the Fed chair can completely eliminate the negative effect all this malicious weather has had on equity values of companies otherwise poised for unbridled success .... crap I just spilled my kool-aid.

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 10:05 | 4567325 optimator
optimator's picture

As usual they will read off the scripts they all were handed.  I'm not on the list to get advance copy.  Some of them can't even read too well.  Maybe they should hold rehersals.  

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 10:16 | 4567369 elwind45
elwind45's picture

What do they need traders for......to get coffee(tea) for the AI? Don't get tea on my script you way overpaid stool?

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 10:21 | 4567399 elwind45
elwind45's picture

SAME.....as it ever was and 750 words less now who is genius? Ukraine wants money for property? STAND IN LINE OR FIGHT same goes for YANKS! Stand in line wait your turn and its gone? So sorry the AI took it again and lucky you not play chess.

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 10:23 | 4567418 elwind45
elwind45's picture

A little whiteout a change the year tic and fucking magic. ? Now wait for suckers to bite?

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 10:27 | 4567441 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 10:35 | 4567477 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

New warning on cialis/viagra: in case of four-hour erection, download photo of Yellen.

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 10:46 | 4567542 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

Fill in the blanks:

Yellen's (blank)______ (blanks) _______ like (blank)______.

 

Example:

Yellen's ass smells like Bernanke's mouth.

 

Enjoy.

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 10:51 | 4567576 Baby Eating Dingo22
Baby Eating Dingo22's picture

Hours away and I'm already feeling rectal tingle

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 11:50 | 4567877 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

Its the new numb-ers from the FED.

Everyone will feel very sleepy and numb soon.

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 10:54 | 4567593 markelshark
markelshark's picture

Has anyone else noticed that Yellen is identical to "Kathy Geiss" from 30 Rock?

 

http://s3.amazonaws.com/data.tumblr.com/tumblr_ktfjbkpist1qzhu5zo1_1280.png

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 11:14 | 4567693 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

is it me or does she look jewish?

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 11:41 | 4567823 f16hoser
f16hoser's picture

In about 5 weeks, Janet baby will be Tinkling her Panties!

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 11:49 | 4567843 polo007
polo007's picture

http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/7202/economics/escape-velocity/

Escape Velocity
 
In physics, escape velocity refers to the speed necessary to break free of gravitational field without further propulsion. For example, to leave the earth’s gravitational pull requires approximately 40,320 km/h, or 25,000 mph. This was first achieved in 1959 by Luna I.
 
Very interesting, but what does escape velocity mean in relation economics?
 
It refers to the need for an economy to grow at a sufficiently fast rate to escape a recession and return to a normal long run rate of economic growth
 
In essence, escape velocity is a fancy way of saying a sustained economic recovery. But, the phrase nicely creates an image of how in certain circumstances, an economy can be held back by certain downward pressures.
 
If the economy reaches an escape velocity, then we see a virtuous circle of rising GDP, rising tax revenues, rising confidence and rising investment. When this escape velocity is reached, we no longer need to support the economy with expansionary fiscal policy and expansionary  monetary policy. Growth should be self-sustaining by normal private sector activity.
 
What prevents the economy reaching escape velocity?
 
1. Low confidence. When the economy is stagnating we see low business and consumer confidence. This leads to a fall in spending and investment. For example, the UK has seen a sharp rise in savings as the private sector are reluctant to spend and invest.

2. Negative multiplier effect. During an economic stagnation, firms produce less and we will see low wage growth and high unemployment. However this low wage growth and high unemployment leads to lower spending, which in turn contributes to higher unemployment and lower wage growth.

3. Deflationary debt spiral. In a recession, budget deficits increase because of automatic fiscal stabilisers. In response, the government may seek to reduce the budget deficit, through limiting spending. However, the pursuit of austerity  measures can lead to lower growth, and therefore governments miss their deficit reduction targets. In response, governments further tighten fiscal policy, leading to prolonged low growth.

4. Bank losses. In a balance sheet recession banks have to deal with many loan defaults. These bank losses mean they want to improve their reserve ratios. This makes banks reluctant to lend, and therefore firms and consumers struggle to find their usual access to finance. This holds back economic growth.
 
5. Global financial instability. Global financial instability will harm bank lending and reduce confidence.
 
6. Global recession. A recession in your main trading partner will make it difficult to increase exports.

7. Real wage unemployment. New Keynesians may stress micro-economic factors, such as sticky wages. If wages don’t fall to a new equilibrium, workers price themselves out of the labour market leading to prolonged unemployment.

Conclusion  – what is the importance of escape velocity?
 
Escape velocity is useful for creating the idea that in a liquidity trap  / deep recession, policy makers need to be bold and target a real escape velocity. For example, if policy makers are timid in pursuing economic recovery (e.g. pursue deflationary fiscal policy when private sector demand is weak, this can easily keep the economy in a negative spiral of low growth, low confidence and high unemployment. The quicker the economy reaches escape velocity – the quicker the government can end fiscal stimulus, and the quicker the Central Bank can return interest rates to normal interest rates.
 
The quicker the economy reaches escape velocity, the quicker the economy can deal with longer-term structural problems (e.g. debt, supply side problems)

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 13:07 | 4568279 dcj98gst
dcj98gst's picture

Bunch of Bull Shit

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 11:48 | 4567855 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

New market numb.

New numb-er.

 

The new numb-ers will leave the market Numb and Painless, and flaccid.

 

New Numb.

Banksters are feeling the new numb.

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 12:00 | 4567944 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

"What To Expect From The Fed Today"

We can expect one of two things or maybe a little of both:

1) Lies and more theft

2) Theft and more lies

My 'fiat' is on number one.

 

"How many bankster heads to a bushel?"

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 12:22 | 4568046 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

rumor has it, she has not got the keys to the executive wash room yet, Ben took the books home and misplaced them, she has no clue what deals were made off the books with international CB's and TBTF.

she was told to, smile, look slightly confused and say; gosh I am just a grandma how could I know?

or I'll have to get back to you on that. as for audit the fed, no she was never for that.

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