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Yellen's Fed Tightens ($10bn Taper) And Loosens (Lower For Even Longer); Blames Weather - Full Statement Redline

Tyler Durden's picture


As expected Janet Yellen's first FOMC statement showed another $10bn taper (more tightening according to Jim Bullard) but the wordy shift from quantitative thresholds to "we'll know it when we see it" qualitative guidance is relatively dovish (despite improved economic outlooks):


Most importantly perhaps, if expected, forward guidance is now dead, as it is a confirmed failure:


While Bernanke's last meeting appeared full of disagreement; this time less so (as Plosser and Fisher appeared not to dissent). Full redline to follow.

Pre-FOMC: S&P Futs: 1873.5, Gold $1337, 10Y 2.712%, USDJPY 101.65

The hand-waving begins:


As they lower growth outlook and lower unemployment outlook?!

  • FED: 2014 GDP GROWTH OF 2.8%-3.0% VS 2.8%-3.2% IN DECEMBER (lower growth)
  • FED: END-2014 JOBLESS RATE AT 6.1%-6.3% VS 6.3%-6.6% IN DEC. (but lower unemployment)

Full statement redline below



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Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:05 | 4568554 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture
Loosens (Lower For Even Longer)

And who did not see this coming?

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:07 | 4568573 Aeternus
Aeternus's picture

This is what is coming...... In two minutes.......

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:10 | 4568589 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

<---- Taper is tightening

<---- Tapering is still a loose policy

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:13 | 4568621 BaBaBouy
BaBaBouy's picture


Broadcast: """ ALL IS FINE!!! """

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:15 | 4568637 Troll Magnet
Troll Magnet's picture

I love it.  I wish they'd smash it all the way down to $900 because I have fiat and I have a truck.  Bring it, central planning bitches.  I'm ready.

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:26 | 4568694 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

Tapering is still a loose policy and a loose policy is always a desperate attempt.  Desperate attempts create desperate measures and when taken they usually fail.

Gold demand has soared since Brown's Bottom and continues to climb.  The supply is not increasing drastically, and any utopian theory that thinks we will be mining asteroids in the coming decades needs their brain checked.  

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:15 | 4568601 BaBaBouy
BaBaBouy's picture


Wed, 03/19/2014 - 16:00 | 4569246 Moustache Rides
Moustache Rides's picture

i almost died laughing watching that

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:08 | 4568577 Max Hunter
Max Hunter's picture

Good news for Belgium!! Now they can buy more treasureies at this great rate!

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:10 | 4568596 McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

Kneel before ZIRP.

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:14 | 4568626 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

Did ZIRP kick even Zod's ass?

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:17 | 4568647 asteroids
asteroids's picture

FED: "ZIRP forever!" Bond market: Fuck you!

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:26 | 4568707 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

The actual Federal Reserve is located in Belgium. Why did Bernanke leave and let a woman run the outlet in DC?

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:12 | 4568615 dtwn
dtwn's picture

I maintain that we won't see talk of untapering until either the Sep or Dec FOMC meetings.  We've got to see how bad the housing market gets this spring/summer.  And maybe let the markets crash a little bit. Just to see how it feels.


Just the tip to see how it feels:

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 15:11 | 4568977 Seer
Seer's picture

But aren't they already talking about it?  Perhaps you meant that it [action] couldn't actually happen before September? (and good reasoning there)

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:05 | 4568557 Bangin7GramRocks
Bangin7GramRocks's picture

Party on Garth!

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:05 | 4568559 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

"we still have no clue what we're doing, so we print money and lie monthly"

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:08 | 4568583 Martial
Martial's picture

Print and Lie.....oh THAT'S what P&L stands for!

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:13 | 4568624 gjp
gjp's picture

And they all buy up the USD like crazy - against PMs and other currencies too.  What a horror show

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:35 | 4568725 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

Just because the instinct of the masses is to sell gold when their investment bankers tell them to, because their firms have sell ratings on them, and buy dollars - what is still the reserve currency - doesn't mean it is a wise long term move.  The fact that no trader wants his clients to own gold, because the trader doesn't get a bonus from selling off the firms buy list, shows how rampant they will sell when the client says, "Fine, sell the gold."

How many people have tried to buy "gold" - paper as it is - through a financial advisor?  They just won't do it, or they will make a note that it was their client's idea.  Then they finally convince the client to sell, and they will try to get you to sell the GLD because, "Gold is a bad firm recommends against it....and we could buy CVX!  They are about to take over the Ukrainian pipeline!"

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:05 | 4568560 Hero Protagonist
Hero Protagonist's picture

Until debt service exceeds tax revenue, nothing will change.

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:15 | 4568635 John McCloy
John McCloy's picture

   The 10 year is looking to take care of that real soon...anyone questioning why the 10 Year has been defended from crossing 3% only need to look at the suddenly wealthy nation of Belgium...they are probably repoing trash back to the Fed so that they can buy hand over fist but now we know a few things:

1) Nations are less willing to purchase our debt 

2) The Fed is cutting secret deals to hand cash to foreign banks to make up the difference

3) Russia is not puchasing any more of our debt likely 

4) There will be no 2015 rate rise they cannot afford to stop QE let alone raise rates.

And what happens if Russia and China start dumping en masse? Who's gonna pick up the slack? Not even the Fed can print enough and we are going to pretend we have an option in Ukraine? The U.S. will do nothing Putin will have the whole nation within 2 years and as this point China probably knows they can have Sennuku Islands...fuck it maybe even Taiwan..


  This year is going to be a sight to see..I mean a sight to see.

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:06 | 4568561 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

LOLOLOL!  Vertical DOWN in stocks. 


(Now let us see how long that lasts.  Fucking HFTs.)

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:06 | 4568566 digitlman
digitlman's picture

Less than a minute?

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:07 | 4568571 digitlman
digitlman's picture

Nope..spoke too soon...

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:10 | 4568602 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

There's a reason why I wouldn't play in the stock market with anything that I couldn't afford to lose.


I'm not an insider.

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:16 | 4568642 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

Oh, so youre not Jewish

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:23 | 4568690 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Stocks not allowed to go down while Janet speaks.  So maybe another 45 minutes of wishy washy action before blast off.

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:06 | 4568567 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture



not....goin to my dealer later this afernoon.....

keep stackin.....

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:10 | 4568570 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture

Spells austerity for those relying on a fixed income for their survival.

What major retailer is going bankrupt next?

Central bank shareholders say, ME SO HORNEY, SUCK E SUCK E YOU LONG TIME.

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:08 | 4568574 MFLTucson
MFLTucson's picture

This bullshit is simply disgusting.  Who dumped the 105 Billion in Traesuries last week Yellen and why?

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:08 | 4568576 Obama_4_Dictator
Obama_4_Dictator's picture

Seriously, I want off this planet!

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:10 | 4568600 1stepcloser
1stepcloser's picture

You missed your flight, MAL 370

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:21 | 4568674 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Indefinite layover at Diego Garcia.

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:19 | 4568655 Miffed Microbio...
Miffed Microbiologist's picture

Well, I failed to make the first cut on Mars One. Best of luck to you if you decide to apply.


Wed, 03/19/2014 - 15:00 | 4568912 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Re:  Well, I failed to make the first cut on Mars One


Let me guess...   Too pessimistic?    Not a team player?

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:08 | 4568578 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Stocks down momentarily.... BTFD.

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:11 | 4568605 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

stocks will reverse. gold not so much...

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:23 | 4568686 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I should have said BTFD right this second!

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:09 | 4568579 fxrxexexdxoxmx
fxrxexexdxoxmx's picture

I can not remember how many times this poster or that commented that once the 6.5 % unemployment threshold was met it would just be changed since it never mattered.

These skimmers will never give up their vig.

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:08 | 4568580 Charles Nelson ...
Charles Nelson Reilly's picture

ahhh, there is the smash in metals I knew was coming!


Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:08 | 4568582 Dewey Cheatum Howe
Dewey Cheatum Howe's picture

(more tightening according to Jim Bullard)

Translated Belgian Waffle kicksave again.

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:14 | 4568625 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

They never tighten.  They just stop admitting what they are doing.

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:09 | 4568584 trillion_dollar...
trillion_dollar_deficit's picture


Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:09 | 4568592 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

so zirp forever ever ever has yields moving higher...

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:13 | 4568617 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

not for everyone, but for some, yes.

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:19 | 4568658 Crash Overide
Crash Overide's picture

It really is different this time.

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:10 | 4568597 Hindenburg...Oh Man
Hindenburg...Oh Man's picture

Well between the Crimea situation being "resolved", and now the "economy" and "tapering" has been sorted out, fixed or whatever you want to call it, it's been one hell of a week for gold and the mining stocks. Can we call it a week and start again on Monday? Please?

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:10 | 4568598 sudzee
sudzee's picture

Russia and China demanding higher rates or risk a dump. Its tough when your broke.

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:14 | 4568606 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture




Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:11 | 4568608 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

<-- Less overt QE [means] -->

<-- Moar stealth QE

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:11 | 4568609 Ignatius J Reilly
Ignatius J Reilly's picture

Russia invades Ukraine.  Blames Weather.

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:12 | 4568610 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

go king dollar go!

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:24 | 4568677 1stepcloser
1stepcloser's picture

The dollar chart looks like a Teenager's Stiffy, when watching porn for the first time.  Impressive...most impressive

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:12 | 4568611 J Pancreas
J Pancreas's picture

The most frustrating thing is knowing what the outcome is, knowing the best way to hedge yourself, and being powerless to affect the eventual outcome. I do wish at times I hadn't gone down the rabbit hole and saw this disgusting fubar'd situation for what it is.

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:17 | 4568643 Ignorance is bliss
Ignorance is bliss's picture

Ditto. My monicker should be "Ignorance was bliss"

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:27 | 4568713 Miffed Microbio...
Miffed Microbiologist's picture

This is my daily dilemma. The funny thing is I look around and think, damn, I am relatively better prepared than 95% of people in my life. Then I realize when this tsunami hits, really, I am going to be squashed like a bug. I'm a burly muscle bound ant that still will have sand kicked in my face. I do envy the ignorant at times.


Wed, 03/19/2014 - 15:23 | 4569035 Seer
Seer's picture

Yeah, I know perfectly well what you're saying.

I suppose, however, that the consolation will be that we'll at least know where to face in order to see the fireworks (bright flash).

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 15:46 | 4569176 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

I am heading toward Miramar or North Island Naval Air Station on that day. I want my ashes to be elevated to the stratosphere.

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 16:31 | 4569357 Miffed Microbio...
Miffed Microbiologist's picture

Want a friend for company? I'm fairly close and wouldn't mind surrounding myself with a few of the like minded and prophetic. Too bad we didn't have the power. ;-)


Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:13 | 4568618 metaforge
metaforge's picture

Meet the new boss...

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:13 | 4568622 alangreedspank
alangreedspank's picture

Yellen's Pants Tighten!

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:16 | 4568640 J Pancreas
J Pancreas's picture

FUPA is more pronounced.

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:15 | 4568634 FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

Valuable paper up! Worthless metal down!

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:24 | 4568699 Crash Overide
Crash Overide's picture

I think the force is stronger in this one... When the Yellen speaks fixed metal markets move very much.

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:16 | 4568639 youngman
youngman's picture

Just bought some more gold.....gotta love it....dovish...but going down...Ill take it

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:16 | 4568641 The_Ungrateful_Yid
The_Ungrateful_Yid's picture

Gold getting's still 55 billion a month free money. I dont see the market reacting to the red for long.

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:17 | 4568644 wmbz
wmbz's picture

No need for Jack Yellen to waddle out and say anything. Everyone knows well in advance what will be spewed.

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:18 | 4568651 Rising Sun
Rising Sun's picture

Market drops in minutes.  Ramp-pa-palooza follows.


Check that gold price.  OUCH!!!!

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:19 | 4568653 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Ms Yellen, where is Belgium getting the money to buy its GDP in US Tresuries in 2 months?  Taper my ass.

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:20 | 4568662 walküre
walküre's picture

"The Lord Giveth and the Lord Taketh away"

Read that in a piece of old literature at some point in my life... just take it for what it's worth. It sure fits the current occupation and exploitation by our central bankers.

They act like Gods because we let them rule over us with their confetti.

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:20 | 4568665 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

They can wipe out 30 days of slow solid gains on 2.5 days. I guess if no one myself included is willing to do anything about it, then there is no longer a reason to buy and hold gold. It's a hamster wheel and we are going nowhere except a year closer to the grave. I'm done with this. No more words for me I'm removing myself from The Fight Club. Perhaps if history is any indicator, me no longer posting and perhaps no longer even reading ZH, will be the turning point, we are waiting to happen. If so, no credit due is needed. Bye Bye.

Fuck You Greenspan. Fuck You Bernanke. Fuck You Yellen.

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:24 | 4568697 walküre
walküre's picture

We are only halfway through the lost decade which started in 2010. I'm sure by 2020 it will be the greatest economy ever.

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:49 | 4568840 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Re;  I'm sure by 2020 it will be the greatest economy ever.

For the top 10%, you have no idea.    There's a reason the airlines are adding first-class seating, lounges, and airport access.    

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 15:41 | 4569147 walküre
walküre's picture

It's a fiat bankers and oligarch's wet dream come true.

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:52 | 4568863 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Re: me no longer posting and perhaps no longer even reading ZH

Well, good luck.   You'll probably be happier (mentally healthier) not reading this site.

Having economic moral OCD is a bitch,  hope you can kick the habit.

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:20 | 4568668 alangreedspank
alangreedspank's picture

Sharp selloff... Everyone is going cash, look at the ramp at 2PM

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:32 | 4568682 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture


tells congress it's only going to get worse before it gets better.

no shit. you need an ivy education to figure that out?


Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:24 | 4568696 PontifexMaximus
PontifexMaximus's picture

Moar yellen, moar tapering, higher markets, the new credo.

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:27 | 4568714 Jon Steed
Jon Steed's picture

The fed can continue to taper as long as the US has suspended its debt ceiling. Who knows how many billions are being given to " allies" to ensure they buy US Treasuries thus freeing up the fed from having to support the loss. I would imagine if he US set a debt ceiling again the fed might find a reason to add to the QE. Just a thought... I might be wrong.... Probably am we all know how smart the fed is, Im sure they know what they are doing.;/

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:41 | 4568797 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Yep, see Belgium's US Treasury holdings.

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:28 | 4568716 jubber
jubber's picture

Dow has already bounced 60 points of that move down, now for the ATH close

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:29 | 4568719 Baby Eating Dingo22
Baby Eating Dingo22's picture

What a bunch of BS!

Fed's top Ivy League economists have a startling revelation that maybe the unemployment rate doesn't represent an accurate measure so they can no longer base decision on that alone. How have jack ass holier than thou geniuses determined unemployment formula that they put in place two years ago has now become unreliable? It was fine two years ago, but now it is not? Clueless pieces of dung running monetary policy by the seat of their pants


One reason for dropping a threshold unemployment rate, as Yellen among others have noted, is that the rate can overstate the job market's health. In recent months, for example, the unemployment rate has fallen not so much because of robust hiring but because many people without a job have stopped looking for one. Once people stop looking for a job, they're no longer counted as unemployed, and the rate can fall as a result.

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:53 | 4568868 nakki
nakki's picture

As many have said we all saw this coming, everyone except the geniuses at the FED. Isnt the fact that people less people are working and the unemployment rate going down because everyone is independently wealthy and retiring? Isnt that what all the asshats have been saying for two years? How can anyone take anything said by 90% of the entire industry seriously. The industries mouth pieces are so bad its like porn actors trying to do Shakespeare.

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:59 | 4568904 Pseudonymous
Pseudonymous's picture

See my comment below. Their desire to print more money never had anything to do with lowering unemployment. It's just that the FED has now aligned its preference with the government's to try and throw more bullshit at the public as to how fucked up the economy actually is. The result of this decision will be to simply keep the numbers released by the BLS absurdly low even when the actual inflation and unemployment start to go significantly higher. Every incentive is aligned that way.

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:34 | 4568757 nakki
nakki's picture

Apparently within 6 months the FED will tapper to 0, but remember tapering is only bad for gold.

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:35 | 4568758 Pasadena Phil
Pasadena Phil's picture

Is dropping the unemployment rate as a trigger for interest rates a signal that the Fed is now abandoning part of its dual mandate?

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:46 | 4568818 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture


No, of course not.    

1) Protect the banks
2) Enrich the Elysium Class.

Still a duel mandate.

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:38 | 4568777 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture



moving from market manipulation to absolute control.



Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:39 | 4568784 DoubleTap
DoubleTap's picture

Just remember, world wide economic collapses aren't frozen chimichangas that are cooked in a microwave in 2 minutes. Patients grasshoppers.

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 14:44 | 4568811 Pseudonymous
Pseudonymous's picture




In other words, they still encourage the government to fudge the inflation rate lower, and they no longer encourage them NOT to fudge the unemployment rate lower. So now the government has absolutely every reason to fudge them all lower and no reason not to.

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 15:26 | 4569048 sudzee
sudzee's picture

Is Yellen actually sayin the FED's ability to act as buyer of last resort for treas issuance is comin to an end.

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 15:43 | 4569157 walküre
walküre's picture

Don't read too much into it. There is no alternative. How many USTs have you bought lately?

Fudgedy fudge fuck

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 16:17 | 4569312 Johnny Cocknballs
Johnny Cocknballs's picture

We'll always have Belgium.

Wed, 03/19/2014 - 16:15 | 4569303 Johnny Cocknballs
Johnny Cocknballs's picture

there's a lot here, but I have a question for you smart ZHers who have studied Keynes et al in more depth. 

What, precisely, does the Fed think it's actions are or could do, causally, however far up the causal chain, to create jobs, i.e. to get the country to "maximum employment" - whatever that actually means.

I recall "trickle down economics" being lambasted by the same people who love moar taxes, moar printing, and moar borrowing...  but I'm genuinely unsure how different this really is.

Perhaps the Left hates the notion of capital "trickling down" from the very wealthy, the "job creators" but somehow, when it's the government, or private banks, benefitting from cheap FRNs the poors can not obtain anywhere near as cheaply, it's suddenly okay?  It suddenly works?

I mean, isn't this a case of "it's not wrong/stupid/racist/insane/fascism when we do it"?  What am I missing.  Are economists quite sure Fed actions fairly reliably affect employment in the ways they propose and predict?  The evidence need not be perfect, but something like how we'd expect a new drug to work after proper testing and vetting...  i.e. if the Fed does x, y, and z to improve employment, employment should, at a minimum, not worsen, and if it does, there ought to be clear evidence it would have worsened more but for x, y, z - not conjecture. 

Because, if Fed action isn't reasonably causally related to employment or prices, then as an empirical matter there is no way to say they are doing anything but affecting bond and equity and perhaps other markets with their dispatches, and for all we know their meddling is literally doing more harm than good.


Why aren't "progressives" in favor of say, giving everyone at or below poverty level a freshly printed $5,000 bucks, let them spend it, and let it "trickle up"?  Presumably a lot of that would go to credit card companies, but a lot would go to auto shops, clothing stores, nail salons...  local businesses who would either spend it forward or deposit it themselves, some to smaller/local banks who don't have access to the fed free money window, but who have clean books and reasonable capital reserves, etc. etc.

Sorry this is meandering, I'm just having this overwhelming sense, from our global politics to our national economy, that I am in some sort of bizarre dream where we have all accepted horseshit as fact, and I can't see why central planning, or political centralization has gotten to the point it has, given the record. 


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