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Mapping Europe's Mutually Assured Economic Destruction As EU Plans More Sanctions

Tyler Durden's picture




 

With senior German officials expecting discussions among leaders at the EU Summit to solely focused on a second round of sanctions against Russia (and warnings that they "must avoid a spiral of sanctions"), we thought it worth drilling down on just how mutually-dependent the two regions are. As Acting-Man's Pater Tenebrarum notes, the following infographics suggest tit-for-tat sanctions could be a really big problem for Europe and why the EU's leaders are probably quietly praying for the crisis to simply go away.

 

Trade between the EU and Russia (via RT)

 

Trade between Russia and Germany (via Der Spiegel) – Russia is Germany's 11th largest trading partner

 

A list of German companies with big exposure to Russia (also via Der Spiegel)

 

International exposure to Russian debt (via Reuters)

 

Here are details on selected bank exposures (via Reuters):

SOCIETE GENERALE:

 

France's second-biggest bank had exposure of 22.4 billion euros to Russia at the end of June, according to the European Banking Authority's (EBA) data. That equated to 15.7 billion euros in risk-weighted assets.

 

SG Russia, which includes Rosbank and other insurance and financial operations, made operating income of 239 million euros last year, almost double 2012 despite a 41 percent jump in losses from bad debts. The bank said it had 13.5 billion euros of outstanding loans in Russia and deposits of 8.5 billion in the country at the end of 2013.

 

SocGen's equity in its Russian business accounted for 7.7 percent of its group total, Morgan Stanley analysts estimated.

 

UNICREDIT:

 

Italy's biggest bank by assets had exposure of 18.6 billion euros to Russia at the end of June, the EBA data showed.

 

The bank said its revenues from Russia were 372 million euros in the fourth quarter, up 80 percent from a year earlier.

 

UniCredit's equity in its Russian business accounted for 2.7 percent of its group total, Morgan Stanley estimated.

 

RAIFFEISEN BANK INTERNATIONAL:

 

The Austrian lender said it is Russia's 10th biggest bank, with a loan book of 10.2 billion euros, 2.5 million customers and 192 outlets. Its Russian assets represent 12 percent of the group total, and the Russian unit made 507 million euros in the first nine months of last year, most of the group's total.

 

The EBA data showed Raiffeisen had a 13.2 billion euro exposure to Russia at the end of June.

 

Raiffeisen's equity in its Russian business accounted for 15.6 percent of its group total, Morgan Stanley estimated.

 

OTP BANK:

 

The Hungarian bank's exposure to Russia was 4.4 billion euros at the end of June, the EBA data showed.

 

BANK OF CYPRUS:

 

Its exposure to Russia was 1.6 billion euros at the end of June, the EBA data showed.

But apart from that - should be fine?! And this on the heels of Ukraine appearing to fold on any further action suggests Western powers have put themselves in a red-line-crossing MAD box...

 

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Thu, 03/20/2014 - 18:35 | 4574663 williambanzai7
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POMOSTROIKA!

 

 

Thu, 03/20/2014 - 19:05 | 4574772 ThirdWorldDude
ThirdWorldDude's picture

Zio-nazi aparatchiks... Angie should know, being raised in East Germany and all that...

Fri, 03/21/2014 - 02:03 | 4575842 Againstthelie
Againstthelie's picture

Merkel said several times reason of state was to support Israel. Without any german newspaper or journalist questioning such an incredible view.

Merkel received the highest civilian Israeli medal shortly after the Ukrainian coup.

The whole "German" government with all but two ministers devotly visited Israel to receive it's orders a few weeks ago.

"German" embassies now even fullfill the jobs for Israeli ambassies, in countries which have no diplomatic relationships with Israel ("this is very helpful for Jews").

Merkel gives a sh.t about Germany and the German people. So any economic damage is only of interest, if it helps Israel.

Merkel is a fanatic Globalist. In the GDR she was a Communist and the Stasi papers know her as informant IM Erika. She only changed the color from the red globalist to the orange globalist and for the sheeple she chose the costume of the Christ Democratic Union party.

Rumors don't go away, that she is Jewish (her grandfather was from Posen (Poznan), today Poland, but her maiden name was Kamirczak, was changed by the family to Kasner in 1930).

Yes, German sheeple are dumb enough to even re-elect this antigerman Zionist monster.

Thu, 03/20/2014 - 18:35 | 4574673 Amish Hacker
Amish Hacker's picture

This is why it makes no sense to threaten your neighbor by putting a gun to your own head.

Thu, 03/20/2014 - 18:41 | 4574688 swmnguy
swmnguy's picture

It worked for Sheriff Bart in "Blazing Saddles."

Thu, 03/20/2014 - 18:42 | 4574699 McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

"Hold it men, he's not bluffing!"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=upvZdVK913I

Thu, 03/20/2014 - 19:00 | 4574753 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

< shots will be fired

< blanks will be fired

Yup... this looks to be the new European version of the good old fashioned 'Mexican standoff'.

Bets?

Thu, 03/20/2014 - 19:00 | 4574754 Fortunate Fool
Fortunate Fool's picture

So Russia accounts for les than Poland in Germany's export, Germany being Russia's largest european trade partner, and ZH would like us to believe that a reduction in those trades would be catastrophic for Europe?

Lol... I bet Russia is, and should be, a little bit more worried that Europe will reduce drastically its intake of Russia's oil and gas...

Thu, 03/20/2014 - 19:10 | 4574776 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

Yup... and wind and solar could really make that happen soon plus the trans-Syria gas pipeline is probably just a year or two away....

BwaaaaHaHaHaaa!

Thu, 03/20/2014 - 19:19 | 4574820 Fortunate Fool
Fortunate Fool's picture

Yeah, it's not like Germany has Nuclear power plants all over the country that could be restarted within short notice... oh wait!

Thu, 03/20/2014 - 19:29 | 4574866 BKbroiler
BKbroiler's picture

Careful criticizing Putin on this board.  The Slav Napoleon is the GOP's candidate for 2016.

Thu, 03/20/2014 - 19:50 | 4574932 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Dood, it's not about Putin.

It's about the chessboard.  One side has 4 rooks and 3 queens and the other side has 1 pawn left.

Those pieces are the oil reality, and make no mistake about this, that's all that matters.  Civilization depends on it and that's not going to change.

Russia is in the dominant position and nothing can be done about this.  It doesn't matter who is in charge of either side.

Thu, 03/20/2014 - 21:14 | 4575219 Dickweed Wang
Dickweed Wang's picture

Those pieces are the oil reality, and make no mistake about this, that's all that matters.  Civilization depends on it and that's not going to change. . . . .

The release of suppressed alternative energy technology held by governments and/or the deep state controllers to the people would end:

  1. The need for oil as an energy resource (along with nuclear and coal)
  2. Multibillionaires & corporations benefiting from the oil economy
  3. The military-industrial complex
  4. Etc.

Seeing as the above is not going to happen without a global revolution of some kind, in general, you're probably right . . . . . way too many people have their faces stuck in their handheld devices texting, twittering or facebooking to give a shit enough to try to change anything.  That said, take their toys and McDonalds away and things might just change.

Thu, 03/20/2014 - 19:13 | 4574799 Ifigenia
Ifigenia's picture

why Europe has to sanction Russia for what Victoria Nulland did in Kiev?.

Thu, 03/20/2014 - 19:21 | 4574831 Fortunate Fool
Fortunate Fool's picture

Ask Lithuania, Poland, Estonia, Latvia, all members of the EU how they feel about what's going on in Ukraine...

Thu, 03/20/2014 - 19:33 | 4574876 Ifigenia
Ifigenia's picture

why didnt they stop Vitoria Nulland folly in Kiev, that spark this crisis? Always the same, Zios sow troubles and others pay.

Thu, 03/20/2014 - 19:54 | 4574952 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Oil doesn't care about feel.

Thu, 03/20/2014 - 19:53 | 4574946 Ifigenia
Ifigenia's picture

the zios want to force TTIP down our throat after isolate Russia from EU

Thu, 03/20/2014 - 21:23 | 4575241 Dickweed Wang
Dickweed Wang's picture

The EU and US need to bomb Moscow with John McCain, Lindsay Graham and John Boner - that would shake them up.

Thu, 03/20/2014 - 18:40 | 4574683 Deathrips
Deathrips's picture

Back off...or ill eat my own fingers!!!

 

RIPS

Thu, 03/20/2014 - 18:41 | 4574687 Gyoza Mimi
Gyoza Mimi's picture

Well, West would have to find access to other sources of gas, accelerating the process of diversifying away from Russia. In turn, Russia would begin eating leather shoes while digging burrows for the upcoming winter with the newly domestically-manufactured wooden twigs.

Thu, 03/20/2014 - 18:43 | 4574701 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

As I point out below, there IS no other source for 5 million bpd.

Checkmate.

Thu, 03/20/2014 - 19:03 | 4574766 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

I'm blaming Elon Musk meself. "I can drive my car and never have to pay for fuel again. Stick that in your Talban lovin' pipe jerkwad."

The fact that this is in fact a fact probably is what kicked off the whole "invasion thingy."
"Where would we be if we weren't taking it to our own people? Pricing gouging, trading on inside information, buying off politicians if not whole countries. God forbid if they start using self driving technology! Then we won't be able to call it an accident anymore!"
Now lets all get together and sing kumbaya on a needless war no one wants but they're gonna get anyways!" yay! Vietnam! THE MUSICAL!

Thu, 03/20/2014 - 19:05 | 4574771 Gyoza Mimi
Gyoza Mimi's picture

I saw your mumbling. When was the last time you looked at Russian imports from Europe and at Russian only source of funding to buy even basic goods?

 

Three years ago, ZH was overrun by C- grade BBA hopefuls that think they are smarter than the rest of the world.

Thu, 03/20/2014 - 19:43 | 4574911 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Not quite sure what you're saying. 

Is it that Russia can't buy these same goods from China, paying for them with the 6 million bpd that China imports?

You do realize China is a massive oil importer?

I think in general what people don't grasp is that death is only a week or two away without oil.  Water stops flowing in pipes when the water company workers can't get to work.

The converse, that Russia is denied money, is something that would require months to be an issue -- and I can assure you a scarcity of money is more readily addressed than a scarcity of oil.

Thu, 03/20/2014 - 20:09 | 4575002 Variance Doc
Variance Doc's picture

Basically, he is a fucking idiot who cannot see the multidimetionality of international trade; a 1-dimensional "thinker" in an n-dimensional world.

You are right about energy, which some are slowly becoming aware.  There are three things that drive the world (in this exact order):

1) Energy, which flows

2) Money, which flows

3) Power.

 

Anything else is just noise.

Fri, 03/21/2014 - 22:49 | 4579429 Dickweed Wang
Dickweed Wang's picture

Three years ago, ZH was overrun by C- grade BBA hopefuls that think they are smarter than the rest of the world.

More bullshit from an elitist prick who thinks he's better than the rest of us.  Go fuck yourself . . . .

Thu, 03/20/2014 - 19:22 | 4574836 Idi_ocracy
Idi_ocracy's picture

Canada is overflowing in natural gas. Unfortunetly there are no LNG terminals in Canada but if those were built it could easily take up the slack from the russians cutting exports to Europe

Thu, 03/20/2014 - 19:45 | 4574916 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Canada's nat gas output has been falling steadily.  They do have a surplus, which is the source of the US imports.

Yes, the US net imports nat gas.  Remember that when you hear about proposed LNG export terminals.

Fri, 03/21/2014 - 07:04 | 4576113 sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

Russia already has the infrastructure.

Do you propose Europe get its energy tax subsidized? Because that is the only way it would happen. Are you willing to pay more so Europe can have energy?

Then what would you do if Russia lowered its prices? I'd love a good battle in energy prices that leads to lower prices. But I'm not willing to subsidize Europe with my tax dollars. I'm already pissed off we are sending billions to Ukraine.

Thu, 03/20/2014 - 18:41 | 4574690 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

Europe only has one sanction option open to them: "We forbid you to sell us gas."

That will make the Russians crawl in regret.

                           /sarc

Thu, 03/20/2014 - 19:16 | 4574813 Idi_ocracy
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When russian GDP plummits over night they might regret it then

Thu, 03/20/2014 - 19:40 | 4574902 angel_of_joy
angel_of_joy's picture

What's a "plummit" ?

It rhymes with summit...

Fri, 03/21/2014 - 07:07 | 4576116 sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

Idi_ocracy      When russian GDP plummits over night they might regret it then

 

-----

That will occur right about when everyone else's GDP plummets.

Thu, 03/20/2014 - 18:41 | 4574694 Goldenballz
Goldenballz's picture

I guess Sanctions is off the table

Thu, 03/20/2014 - 18:53 | 4574735 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Sanctions would only be off the the table in a sane universe. This is Bizarro World so who knows what they will come up with.

Thu, 03/20/2014 - 18:41 | 4574695 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Look at that first box pair EU exports and Russian exports.

There is nothing the EU is sending to Russia that they cannot get from China or India.

The reverse, oil and gas for the EU.  There is no other source of 5 million bpd.

Game over.

Thu, 03/20/2014 - 18:54 | 4574742 centerline
centerline's picture

One step further... no common debt - split culture - north/south cultural divides internally and externally - etc.  Brussels is fucked and everyone knows it.  Like watching a train wreck in slow motion... can't look away or say anything despite the eternity it seems to take.  Like anyone thinks Nigel Farage is wrong!  Lol.  Fucking guy is spot on.

Thu, 03/20/2014 - 20:18 | 4575035 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

Live in "parliment" -

Nigel Farage: The European Dream is Crumbling:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j4FdbIVa2j0

Thu, 03/20/2014 - 20:15 | 4575024 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

Europe has better quality goods than China does, but I see your point.

Thu, 03/20/2014 - 18:49 | 4574703 Freddie
Freddie's picture

F the EU-SSR

F Baraoso and Van Rompuy

F the ZATO oligarchs 

F the IMF 

F Soros

F McCain, Nudelman and the US State Dept. 

F eBay and Pierre Omidar

F Svoboda (not Ron Swoboda the outfielder for the Mets)

F Obam, the Dems and RINOs.

F the Germans if they are this stupid.

 

Thu, 03/20/2014 - 19:47 | 4574924 Ifigenia
Ifigenia's picture

get some rest than go to the entire wall street

Thu, 03/20/2014 - 18:50 | 4574725 centerline
centerline's picture

Deflationary spiral.  EU goes tits up first.  Is why Russia can push into it.  Smells the weakness.  And it aint the US.  That's just misdirection thanks to the MSM feeding all the haters more binary bullshit (the illusion of choice for you knuckle-draggers who would welcome the next Hitler into office with open arms - ref: George Carlin).

 

 

Thu, 03/20/2014 - 20:14 | 4575016 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

Deflation?  Now that tens of trillions of dollars have been created by the Federal Reserve and other central banks?  Are you sure?

Thu, 03/20/2014 - 22:21 | 4575406 Matt
Matt's picture

Credit Collapse, massive unemployment, severe currency dilution. 

If the base money supply increases 1000%, but the higher tiers - derivatives, M3 or M4 whatever, collapses 99.999%, is there inflation or deflation? I don't think a single word adequetly describes it.

Fri, 03/21/2014 - 07:10 | 4576119 sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

Soul Glow            Deflation?  Now that tens of trillions of dollars have been created by the Federal Reserve and other central banks?  Are you sure?

---------------

Yes. Take a look at your statement. After tens of trillions have been created, we should  have super hyperinflation by now. Instead those dollars are either vanishing to service debt or have been put into the stock market via QE by the banks.

Thu, 03/20/2014 - 18:53 | 4574732 free_lunch
free_lunch's picture

 

If they would really want to take away Putin 's power, they would just get him to sign TTIP (TAFTA) together with EU & US
Then they vould sit back and listen to that big sucking sound (the vanishing of the last reminders of sovereignty & democracy)

http://www.atlantic-community.org/-/ttip-it-s-not-about-trade

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/nov/04/us-trade-deal-full-...

 

 

No Jobs from Trade Pacts: http://www.epi.org/publication/trade-pacts-korus-trans-pacific-partnership/

 

Thu, 03/20/2014 - 20:08 | 4574751 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

What is a gun doing in your trousers?  For protection?  Protection from what?  Zee Germans?

Thu, 03/20/2014 - 19:01 | 4574758 bdub2
bdub2's picture

People here may want to entertain the off-chance, of things continuing, muddling along, as they say, for another decade. Maybe longer. 2029.  Fools looking for a "collapse"! Ha. A "black swan"... a chase after the wind.

 

Thu, 03/20/2014 - 19:29 | 4574865 DirkDiggler11
DirkDiggler11's picture

Ahhh, you are so correct young "Grasshopper".

I'm sure your friendly neighbors will share their food and water with you.

Thu, 03/20/2014 - 19:25 | 4574849 agent default
agent default's picture

Russia does not need to sanction the entire EU though.  They only need to identify a couple of EU members with relatively feeble economies and sanction them.  These countries will be then forced to object to EU policy, make a lot of noise and before you know it the whole sanctioning thing will be called of in the EU.

Thu, 03/20/2014 - 19:45 | 4574919 angel_of_joy
angel_of_joy's picture

The Russians know that they only need to sanction Germany.

Everybody else is already FUBAR... AND waiting for German money too.

Thu, 03/20/2014 - 21:40 | 4575279 Freddie
Freddie's picture

Dr. Jim Willie a few weeks ago had what he said was an off the wall idea.  He said watch Finland because if they pull out of the Euro it would be game over.   The Finns defended against a horrible Soviet 1939-1940 Winter War.  They caused heavy casualties on the USSR but were forced to sign a less than favorable armistice. The Finns lost 25% of their population.  Amazing bravery and a very cold and brutal war.

I am not sure what Russia and Finland's relationship is like but the Finns hate BS and the EU-SSR is a total **cking scam.

Thu, 03/20/2014 - 20:08 | 4574994 supermaxedout
supermaxedout's picture

The sanctions will be imposed no doubt. But somebody has to pay compensation. And this somebody is the US, because they triggered these events with their expansive imperialistic policy.

The calculation is very simply: No compensation = no real sanctions. The US ordered it and now they have to pay if they want really delivery.  Payment in gold would be of course prefered by Germany. Dollar no good anymore, says Ms. Merkel

Thu, 03/20/2014 - 20:10 | 4575003 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

I don't think Germany will be the first to make this move, but kudos to whomever does.

Thu, 03/20/2014 - 21:08 | 4575206 jtg
jtg's picture

If the dumb shit Europeans care about their economies then why don't they stop being puppets of the US?

Thu, 03/20/2014 - 21:30 | 4575255 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Ditto for NSA spying: all talk, no blowback.

It highlights the real/true problem that the EU has: as long as they are beholden to the Fed and its true (hidden) owners, they will continue to be America's "bitch".

Euro squealing, but Euro not doing anything about it, cause (by now) the NSA has Euro politicians in their back pocket also: Dirt and Killer-weak-spots on almost all of them.

Only a Euro Spring can ensure some political house cleaning in Euro land.

Fri, 03/21/2014 - 00:38 | 4575745 Ifigenia
Ifigenia's picture

I am more incline to say the reason is military occupation. When the warsaw pact members were under the commies troops, they also sang to soviet tune.

Fri, 03/21/2014 - 03:19 | 4575912 laomei
laomei's picture

Springtime for someone in Germany?

Fri, 03/21/2014 - 00:58 | 4575782 Ifigenia
Ifigenia's picture

the same reason that ex-warsaw states obey URRS.

Fri, 03/21/2014 - 03:16 | 4575909 laomei
laomei's picture

Europe gets pissy, Russia decides to sell more to another oil-hungry neighbor (China), and once put into motion, that oil and gas don't come back.

Fri, 03/21/2014 - 08:49 | 4576380 irongator
irongator's picture

I can't believe I'm saying this but I'm actually glad O is our president. Had Romney been elected, he might be pulling some stupid shit like actually getting the military enganged in a one up-quid pro quo death spiral to nulcear holocaust. Thank god for our weak and feckless Obamination!

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