Goldman Doubles Down Its Hate On The Best Performing Asset Of 2014: Gold

Tyler Durden's picture

As gold completes its golden cross today and remains by far the best-performing asset of 2014, we thought it intriguing that Goldman Sachs' commodity group would issue a strong "sell your gold" recommendation... of course, when Goldman's clients are selling, who is buying? As a reminder, the last time the bank was extremely bearish on gold (about a year ago), our skepticism at the time was well warranted as Goldman was in fact the largest buyer of gold in the following quarter.

Via Goldman Sachs' Damien Courvalin,

Cold, Crimea & China: Transient supports to gold prices

The 2014 gold rally brought prices to their highest level since September before a more hawkish-than-expected March FOMC pushed prices sharply lower. Three distinct and in our view transient catalysts have driven this rally: (1) a sharp slowdown in US economic activity which we believe was weather driven, (2) high Chinese credit concerns, although ultimately bearish for gold demand through lower financing deals if realized, and (3) escalating tensions over Ukraine. While further escalation in tensions could support gold prices, we expect a sequential acceleration in both US and Chinese activity, and hence for gold prices to decline, although it may take several weeks to lift uncertainty around this acceleration. Importantly, it would require a significant sustained slowdown in US growth for us to revisit our expectation for lower US gold prices over the next two years.

Re-acceleration in US activity will push gold prices lower

While we see clear catalysts for the recent rally in gold prices, this move has been large relative to US real rates which are a key input into our forecasts and benchmarking of gold prices. As a result, we see potential for a meaningful decline in gold prices towards the level implied by 10-year TIPS yields, which our rates strategists expect to rise further this year, and reiterate our year-end $1,050/toz gold price forecast. More broadly, we believe that with tapering of the Fed’s QE, US economic releases are back the decline in gold prices will likely be data dependent, in contrast to our 2013 bearish gold view which was driven by the disconnect between stretched long gold speculative positioning and stabilizing US growth.

Indian and Chinese gold demand unlikely to surprise to the upside

Weak Indian gold imports and surging Chinese imports were the most important shifts in EM gold demand last year, although these trade statistics likely overestimated shifts in local gold demand given reported gold smuggling into India and the use of gold in Chinese financing deals. While we see potential for these shifts to reverse in 2014, we estimate the net impact will not be meaningful to our gold outlook as: (1) India’s potential easing of gold import tariffs will likely remain modest given how much lower gold imports have contributed to its improved trade balance, (2) we expect a gradual unwind of gold backed financing deals.


Full note below:


Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
SilverIsKing's picture

They don't call them GOLDman for nothing.

Stuart's picture

Gold saying sell means Goldman wants to buy, for itself. 

SoberOne's picture

Hello, im Kermit the (gold) bear.

TeamDepends's picture

Kermit, would you like a latte?  You are clearly in need of a gold colonoscopy.  Wait there, one of our interns will be with you presently.

Manthong's picture

Goldman is grateful for muppet myopia.

fockewulf190's picture

Fuck those motherfuckers and the horse they rode in on!

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Goldman Sachs can say whatever they want about gold, but I decline to read their stuff.

As long as Peru continues to grow its production (maybe not in the short-term, alas), then I´m OK.  I hope to break this Peruvian gold production info down to a more granular level soon.  FWTW!

SoberOne's picture

DoChen, let's get a couple of backhoes and start our own mining biz. I know a guy who can get us a good desl on bearings. ;-)

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

There could be great danger in digging up gold, especially if it used to belong to someone else:




(a parody thread, look for smart-aleck OROBTC´s comment)

Stoploss's picture

Thanks to Goldie for the buying op.

Kirk2NCC1701's picture

I gues old man Goldman had better change his name. 

To something like Conman, Fiatman, Janusman, OpusDeiMan, Paperman...

ebworthen's picture

Nice to see you fonestar.

Does this mean you buy Gold with some of your Bitcoin?

fonestar's picture

Eh, fonestar is always buyin' & sellin' gold, silver, coins, guns, ammo, gear, Bitcoins and more.  Point is he never goes broke in any of those catagories.

MillionDollarBoner_'s picture

But...but...but do you get time to do ALL this AND troll on ZH 24/7?

And why do you troll for a few bucks an hour, if you have all these assets? Should you not be by the pool with your bitchez n coke?!?

Or are you truly a Foney, my little Foneystar? Come, you can tell us..we won't judge you. 

We know you were wrenched from the teat to young, hence your overweaning desire for our approval.

We will love you for who you are...just let us in...huh?:O(

frenzic's picture

Let me help you with that. He has all of two guns and a knive and he was born in 1978. Here he is straight from the basement:

fonestar's picture

You don't even have a decent .gif file.

wallstreetaposteriori's picture

and you sir.... are a broke douche...  

fonestar's picture

The total douchetardliness of fonestar is well established and we are not here to debate the obvious.  The point is


wallstreetaposteriori's picture

You are apart of the menagerie typical of trailer park trash.  Bit coin is meaningless and worthless.  Its mere existance is to give the weak and feable, like yourself, hope that one day... you will amount to something...

fonestar's picture

Ooo you guy!

If you had a website fonestar might go on IRC and tell everyone to point their Low Orbit Ion Cannon at you and fire away!

wallstreetaposteriori's picture

Chat away hoe....   I'll keep my eye out for the laser beam....  ROLMFAO!

fonestar's picture

No, that's Anthony (he's like 12 yrs younger than fonestar's PAL).  But fonestar has subscribed to him and is in contact with him.  Anthony is a smart young homo sapien.

wallstreetaposteriori's picture

Fonestar DOB: 11-21-1978.... ? 

fonestar's picture

fonestar has contributed thousands of thoughtful, poignant articles to the Zerohedge community.  You have contributed what exactly?

MeelionDollerBogus's picture

I'll believe your devotion to the mighty Satoshi when you have the Bitcoin logo painted on your face at the Superbowl.

Candyman candyman candyman

fonestar's picture


fonestar has been unmasked! Must stop trolling Zerohead blog!  OPSEC broken!

Disengage!  Disengage!

frenzic's picture

I don't have a .gif file at all. Mine is a .jpg file Einstein.

fonestar's picture



Maybe in that case it's time to upgrade that 4 megapixel camera made in 2002?  But fonestar is down with the Super Mario block look.

Very pixel.  Much retro.  So wow.

wallstreetaposteriori's picture

This is the holy grail of doucheism!!!!  Foneystar.... you have got to be the most pethetic person anyone has every seen.  

fonestar's picture

Ah, compliments of the kiddy-diddling bond investor sir!

wallstreetaposteriori's picture

Oh but forgot to add carrera gt driving and house in hamptons old school trader.  Funny... I made most of my money on the short side of markets... and if I could short YOU....  then I would really be rich.

Harbanger's picture

@ Frenzic.  Oh shit, you found the real fonestar, same avatar and all!

fonestar's picture

fonestar in your coffee.  fonestar in your soup.

wallstreetaposteriori's picture

Yes everyone know that you stick your little pecker in the coffee and soup at the starbucks you work at....

Harbanger's picture

Except for the obsessive bitcoin trolling, he doesn't seem like a bad dude.

fonestar's picture

The very name fonestar.... (translated from ancient Chumbawaylan), "as in the basement, so too in the hard light of Satoshi"

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Chumbawamba is easily enraged, so tread lightly in Chumbawambalia™.

(Although today it might be Chumbawambastan)

Or, for that matter, in ZH Chat when he´s there, (he says he´s Emperor of ZH Chat, but clearly his writ runs out south of the border (so I am out of his jurisdiction for now) and likely you too, being north of it up there in Canada and all).

fonestar's picture



I'm a loner, alone with neuroses and hate
Anger is a permanent character trait
My letter bombs are primed and they're ready to send
Would you like to add me as a friend?
I'm a wound-up whiner with a fetish for guns
I'm almost 50 and I live with my Mum
I hope my nude picture doesn't offend
Would you like to add me as a friend?

chumbawamba's picture

Don't involve me in your sad gimmickry, you fag.

I am Chumbawamba.

fonestar's picture

Oh you anti-fag, fag supporting band, LBGT listening faggy fag.

You are not Chumbawamba.

fonestar's picture

Chumbawamba playing at Gay Pride Day in San Francisco:


Are you sure you are Chumbawamba?

chumbawamba's picture

The lawsuit is pending.

I am Chumbawamba.

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

That will be an interesting lawsuit.  Please keep us informed.  

I myself am a bearing buyer and gold stacker.

Diversity, fishez!

fonestar's picture

That's right... and now try fonstar lite with 30% less cryptose!

chumbawamba's picture

Why are you still doing this to yourself?  Bitcoin jumped the shark as soon as "Satoshi" was outed and then denied all involvement.  No one cares anymore.

Do your handlers' masters not know how open source software works?  Now that the source code is out there, as soon as the need arises, a cryptocurrency that improves on the (intentional) inherent flaws and weaknesses of Bitcoin will be developed by some 16 year old kid in his bedroom, one that is actually anonymous and untrackable.

You fags are done, okay?  Stop tarding up the comments with your wankerisms.  I repeat: no one cares.

Go away.

I am Chumbawamba.

fonestar's picture

Like many anarcho-librarians, fonestar has a lot of time on his hands.