This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Probably The Most Important Chart In The World

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Having discussed the links between economic growth and energy resource constraints, and with the current geo-political fireworks as much about energy (costs, supply, and demand) as they are human rights, it would appear the following chart may well become the most-important indicator of future tensions...

 

Source: Goldman Sachs

This is not the first time we have discussed "self-sufficiency" - As none other than Bridgewater's Ray Dalio noted in a slightly different context:

"self-sufficiency encourages productivity by tying the ability to spend to the need to produce,"

 

"Societies in which individuals are more responsible for themselves grow more than those in which they are less responsible for themselves." The nine-factor gauge of self-sufficiency provides some interesting insights into those nations most likely to experience above-average growth going-forward and those that are not; as European countries, notably Italy, France, Spain, and Belgium, all ranking at the very bottom on self-sufficiency.

And here we discussed, What If Nations Were Less Dependent On One Another?

The ability to survive without trade or aid from other nations, for example, is not the same as the ability to reap enormous profits or grow one’s economy without trade with other nations. In other words, 'self-sufficiency' in terms of survival does not necessarily imply prosperity, but it does imply freedom of action without dependency on foreign approval, capital, resources, and expertise.

 

Freedom of action provided by independence/autarky also implies a pivotal reduction in vulnerability to foreign control of the cost and/or availability of essentials such as food and energy, and the resulting power of providers to blackmail or influence national priorities and policies.

 

...

 

Consider petroleum/fossil fuels as an example. Nations blessed with large reserves of fossil fuels are self-sufficient in terms of their own consumption, but the value of their resources on the international market generally leads to dependence on exports of oil/gas to fund the government, political elites, and general welfare. This dependence on the revenues derived from exporting oil/gas leads to what is known as the resource curse: The rest of the oil-exporting nation’s economy withers as capital and political favoritism concentrate on the revenues of exporting oil, and this distortion of the political order leads to cronyism, corruption, and misallocation of national wealth on a scale so vast that nations suffering from an abundance of marketable resources often decline into poverty and instability.

 

The other path to autarky is selecting and funding policies designed to directly increase self-sufficiency. One example might be Germany’s pursuit of alternative energy via state policies such as subsidies.

 

That policy-driven autarky requires trade-offs is apparent in Germany’s relative success in growing alternative energy production; the subsidies that have incentivized alternative energy production are now seen as costing more than the presumed gain in self-sufficiency, as fossil-fueled power generation is still needed as backup for fluctuating alt-energy production.

 

Though dependence on foreign energy has been lowered, Germany remains entirely dependent on its foreign energy suppliers, and as costs of that energy rise, Germany’s position as a competitive industrial powerhouse is being threatened: Industrial production is moving out of Germany to locales with lower energy costs, including the U.S.

 

The increase in domestic energy production was intended to reduce the vulnerability implicit in dependence on foreign energy providers, yet the increase in domestic energy production has not yet reached the critical threshold where vulnerability to price shocks has been significantly reduced.

 

...

 

America’s ability to project power and maintain its freedom of action both presume a network of diplomatic, military, and economic alliances and trading relationships which have (not coincidentally) fueled American corporation’s unprecedented profits.

 

The recent past has created an assumption that the U.S. can only prosper if it imports oil, goods, and services on a vast scale.

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Sun, 03/23/2014 - 21:35 | 4583955 caimen garou
caimen garou's picture

made the top 10!

Sun, 03/23/2014 - 21:37 | 4583957 VD
VD's picture

if you squint your eyes and look very carefully you will see in the blue bars the letters: P U T I  N

Sun, 03/23/2014 - 21:46 | 4583982 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I'm glad that ZH posts a wide variety of Guest Articles (with or without TD's color commentary), but I can't help but find it ironic whenever the likes of Goldman or Bridgewater are held out as credible sources on anything; or even being worthy of having their "opinions"'read (Goldman reams its own clients, trading against their positions that they helped establish, FFS).

Sun, 03/23/2014 - 21:48 | 4583987 VD
VD's picture

reality is anythig u can get away with....

Sun, 03/23/2014 - 22:36 | 4584143 Keyser
Keyser's picture

Canada should be concerned if the SHTF. Their obstinate neighbors to the south have been known to take what they want and call it yankee doodle dandy. 

 

Sun, 03/23/2014 - 23:08 | 4584254 Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

Indeed. Should you choose not to hand over energy at the right price, you may be a threat to national security, a terror threat or be killing your own people and in need of RTP. Liberal or Conservative America will only tolerate so much independent tought up north there.

Sun, 03/23/2014 - 23:15 | 4584278 prains
prains's picture

LOL....that's why Harper has been priming the pump here with ridiculous "War of 1812" propoganda ads. Fortifying the locals.....he's paying for renactments etc. if it wasn't so funny I'd be crying

Sun, 03/23/2014 - 23:37 | 4584327 SafelyGraze
SafelyGraze's picture

some helpful tips for shtf days

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v-XS4aueDUg

spoiler: 

1. steak-fried grapefruit rind

2. dryer parts

3. water-pump bike

Sun, 03/23/2014 - 23:55 | 4584378 chapaev's ghost
chapaev's ghost's picture

PIK NEYFT SUUUUUKI!!!!

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 00:18 | 4584420 knukles
knukles's picture

So will Norway's takeover bid for Australia pass anti trust inspection?

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 09:14 | 4585040 FrankDrakman
FrankDrakman's picture

Um, the War of 1812 ads and re-enactments were over 2 years ago. Are you suggesting that we should expunge the entire period from our memories? Considering that we wouldn't exist as an independent nation if we'd lost, I think it's an important part of our history.

Or are you one of those whining left-wing Canadians who act as if the Canadian army has always been 'peace-keepers', and that the history of our armed forces has been one of rescuing cats and putting on displays at air shows? Feh.

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 10:30 | 4585345 prains
prains's picture

You have no clue who or what i am or stand for, so your child-like inferences are exactly that, infantile. The war of 1812 happened exactly when?? 18 fucking 12, ass cheeks. What does that mean? It's ancient history and has absolutely no bearing, meaning or consequence in 2014 and anything else moving forward. It's stoopid gov't propoganda and you are obviously a paid for gov schill here to troll for your paymasters.............f.o.o.l

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 11:41 | 4585653 FrankDrakman
FrankDrakman's picture

"History has no.. meaning or consequence'.

And you calll me a fool?

You are correct - I have no idea what you stand for. You whine about a few $ spent on a few ads two years ago, so I assume - in the absence of anything to the contrary in any of your posts - you're a typical left-wing asswipe that would gladly have Justin Trudeau running the country and siphoning millions of $ to pay off his buddies in Quebec, as his daddy did, as Mulroney did, and as Chretien did. We have had a Liberal immigration policy for the last 50 years, which has swamped us with people who use Canada for passports of convenience, while their hearts and wallets are still in other countries, and who DON'T KNOW SHIT about Canadian history. We are not America; we are the people who chose not to be America, and I for one am pretty damn glad we did. That we might divert a few tax $ from supporting all these BS refugees into telling them and other would-be Canadians how we got here is not "stoopid propaganda"; it's a part of our history, and part of what makes our country what it is. That is, unless you're another left-wing asswipe who only thinks the value of his country is the size of the cheque he gets every month.

I like American people, but their recent governments have proven that Ike - the last great president they had - was right when he talked about the MIC. We sure as hell don't have one in Canada - look at our navy and the dithering about the F-35 - but that doesn't mean we should ignore the efforts of the people who got us here. I can't stand "stoopid" little pricks who are more than willing to suck off the teat today but don't give a damn about the history or sacrifice that lets them do so.

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 12:12 | 4585797 prains
prains's picture

hey butt cheeks at least quote me correctly or don't quote me at all fuck wad, you're a fucking troll get over it

 

yes, you are the fool

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 00:13 | 4584410 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

FYI oil sands oil is priced way under WTI or Brent. 

There are always convenient excuses like "transport" or viscosity.

OTOH they have only 1 customer for it. 

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 00:18 | 4584421 BobPaulson
BobPaulson's picture

Another advantage to selling it at low price is the Canadian subsidiary loses money, and so pays no royalties on the heavy.Also, by refining south of the border, you can also export "diluant" (refined products) with no duties. It is an awesome scam that only a country full of us patsies would fall for and regularly vote back in the crooks running the scam.

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 00:24 | 4584434 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Good call, Bob.  A lot of condensate heads north to dilute the viscous stuff heading south so the US refineries can deal with it.

The EIA celebrates this as "petroleum product export".  It would be mind boggling if one didn't already know how much lying there is about oil.

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 00:19 | 4584414 BobPaulson
BobPaulson's picture

The shit has hit the fan and Canada's neighbour is taking what it wants. The sad part is that we give it away in exchange for green pieces of paper they are printing and giving themselves.

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 00:25 | 4584435 Terminus C
Terminus C's picture

Canada trades oil for Veggies, soon it'll be water for veggies (no water, no veggies)

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 06:54 | 4584778 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

Don't worry Canada, in the end the US will show its ultimate loyalty is to the British crown, as usual.

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 00:31 | 4584446 Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

Pssst....the Western Hemisphere could cut ties with Eurasia and be energy independent. 

Just sink any tanker that tries to scoot over to the Bad Supercontinent.  Leave it to China and the Saudis to set the Eurasian price (they will regardless of what the Americas do--we just don't have to take it).

But never mind me.  Forget you know this information. 

Keep on with the Empire, pip pip.

Sun, 03/23/2014 - 21:57 | 4584016 frank650
frank650's picture

Self suffiency reductio ad absurdum is one person providing for all needs (housing, medical, education, etc.).   

Trade is beneficial and economically efficient.

 

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 00:27 | 4584438 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

You do realize this planet doesn't trade with any others?

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 09:30 | 4585108 BobPaulson
BobPaulson's picture

BINGO! But if we did find ET's, the pigmen would tell us our economy would tank if we don't immediately send them all our jobs.

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 13:02 | 4586036 AlamoJack
AlamoJack's picture

Trade will NEVER be economically efficient as long as governments are involved.  The question is, just who is benefitting?

Sun, 03/23/2014 - 21:41 | 4583966 Grande Tetons
Grande Tetons's picture

FYI, where I live...prices went up about 20 percent on non persihable items at Costco over the last month. For example. diapers that once would cost 40usd now cost 50usd. 

I am not worried...because...everything...else...appears to be firmly anchored. 

Fuck...I am I glad...I bought....fucking gold....fuck fuck fuck...fuckdeededdfuckfuckfuckfuck. 

Sun, 03/23/2014 - 21:44 | 4583975 prains
prains's picture

diapers and gold.....which end of the age spectrum do you reside?

Sun, 03/23/2014 - 21:49 | 4583989 Grande Tetons
Grande Tetons's picture

My kid is about 2. However, I find that I shit myslelf on a more frequent basis.  Kinda funny, he know refers to his anus as his Bernanke. 

Daddy....need more Yellen...me Bernanke itch. 

Kids say the damndest things. 


Sun, 03/23/2014 - 21:55 | 4584008 Charles Nelson ...
Charles Nelson Reilly's picture

My soon to be 3 yr old just got potty trained. Saving diaper $ is nice. He however will occasionally piss or shit himself... I've taught him to blame Bernanke.

Sun, 03/23/2014 - 23:11 | 4584259 Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

My daughter knew her business at just over 2, my grandson got it down at 2 1/2. I read in the UK papers that primary school kids are turning up for first year classes in diapers. Jesus! My mother had me trained in my 2's.

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 00:18 | 4584399 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

When you were 2 the women were still handwashing cloth diapers on the washboard. Disposable diapers didn't exist before the 60's

Sun, 03/23/2014 - 22:01 | 4583990 Grande Tetons
Grande Tetons's picture

Double post. 

Fuck the Fed. Fuck Banks. Fuck the Goverment. Fuck poilitcis. Fuck the dollar...fuck Bieber, Brittany, JHo,Cliton, Bush, Anderson Cooper...Lou the fat Pig Dobbs, Bill the Cumscuker Oreilly.......

Adios, for a double post...I am outtah here.......

Grande Tetons...RIP. 

Fuck you. Yellen! I hope Fonestar shoots a shot of manlove over your grey, sagging tits.

Sorry, Fonestar. 

Sun, 03/23/2014 - 22:36 | 4584146 prains
prains's picture

fonestar only has an udder, it needs squeezing

Sun, 03/23/2014 - 23:03 | 4584235 prains
prains's picture

just let me know when he's been unplugged

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 09:00 | 4584977 drendebe10
drendebe10's picture

"There ain't nothing uglier than an old white woman." Fred Sanford

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 14:08 | 4586297 detached.amusement
detached.amusement's picture

aint nothin uglier than an ol white woman with a printer

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 08:44 | 4584920 Agstacker
Agstacker's picture

But...the fed said that inflation is at 2%...

Sun, 03/23/2014 - 21:44 | 4583976 Rising Sun
Rising Sun's picture

there are always buyers and always sellers

Sun, 03/23/2014 - 21:51 | 4583993 dirtyfiles
dirtyfiles's picture

hey Grande hot dogs & condoms fits a lot better (sarc)

Sun, 03/23/2014 - 21:57 | 4583996 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Well, almost.

Energy is a word used to cover up the discomfort of reality.

Energy doesn't feed people.  Oil feeds people.

Present that chart in the context of oil and only oil and we have something.

It will look significantly different.  For example, China elevates on that chart only because of coal, but the coal gets to the electric power plant on a truck fueled with . . . yes, oil.

Australia has no oil.

The US would also fall significantly on that chart were it constrained to oil.

On the other hand, there is nothing one can do definition-wise to save Japan.  They are pathetic and utterly hopeless.

Sun, 03/23/2014 - 22:29 | 4584122 new game
new game's picture

what happened to our 200 year supply of coal?

Sun, 03/23/2014 - 22:45 | 4584175 magnetosphere
magnetosphere's picture

fossil fuel inputs to agriculture (fertilizers, tractor fuel, refrigeration, etc) are only a few percent of total fossil fuel consumption.

 

china is expanding its electrified rail network.  that america is not working on this is a collosal failure of our political and economic system.

Sun, 03/23/2014 - 23:07 | 4584251 Tasty Sandwich
Tasty Sandwich's picture

At least all those empty cities will have train service.

I took Amtrak from Kansas City to St. Louis once as a kid.  I-70 is much faster and you have a car when you get there.

Sun, 03/23/2014 - 23:55 | 4584348 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

There are no electric 450 horsepower tractors and you will not feed 320 million people with local food, because the farms that were once around the cities are now parking lots.

Oil feeds people.  It brings seeds to furrows and it brings food to shelves, and nothing else does.

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 00:41 | 4584464 magnetosphere
magnetosphere's picture

biofuels can power tractors and fertilizer production while using a small fraction of the land, of order 10%.  freight transport by rail is 10x more efficient than road transport, and water transport is up to 70x more efficient than road transport, so maintaining food production and distribution without oil is absolutely within the realm of possibility.  and we will have enough oil for food production for several decades, especially if we stop wasting it on other things.

 

and yes, it is possible to make electric tractors and trucks on physical grounds, though they would be very expensive.

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 01:38 | 4584537 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

And yet there are no electric 450 horsepower tractors.  All these things can be done, allegedly, but they are not done.  When were you planning to start?

What's the joules ratio on biodiesel produced at a proper amount, that is oh, 20 million bpd?  Have you fueled even one 75,000 acre farm's production that way?  No, eh.

When you work out your rail transport calculations, be sure you throw in refrigeration for the food in the power numbers, and be sure you get the product to market no slower than diesel fuel can do it.  If you don't, you fail.

You're not allowed at any point of the calculations to say "we don't need that" or "it can be done with less".  You don't impose your preferences in your calculations.  Those are not pure calculations.  You think you can "replace", show me the joules equivalence.

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 02:43 | 4584607 Uber Vandal
Uber Vandal's picture

How did we do it 100 years ago with steam locomotives, or pull refrigerated cars that were cooled with ice?

How did farmers plant vast fields with steam tractors?

Yes, steam is labor intensive, which was its Achilles heel, and obviously not PC either for who wants to have soot all over the place (coal is evil, and the US was cursed with so much of it <sarc>), and all of the oil and grease that goes with lubricating the parts of those old engines,

In the 1930's, we had 100+MPH steam powered locomotives on jointed rail track, without computerized anything, and as I said in a prior post a while back, railroads such as the Milwaukee Road, Great Northern, Virginian, Pennsylvania, New Haven, and others had Electrified locomotives, some traveled routes that were over 600 miles long, dating back to 1915, and in some cases earlier.

What has been done, can be done again.

Or, are we so far past the point of no return that we might as well stock up on assless chaps, chains, and hair dye.

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 05:56 | 4584747 zhandax
zhandax's picture

There may not be any 450HP tractors that run on electricity, but there are plenty of 450HP diesel tractors that will run for about a year on the oil from 2.5 acres of sunflowers.  We once again let a bunch of criminal corporations put an idiot in the White House and they have dictated ass-backward priorities for their own profit.

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 08:03 | 4584844 petolo
petolo's picture

Having been a "horse-farmer" all my life, i can tell you those 450 are not real horsepower. I dare say, two dozen horses will outpull any 450 hp tractor with no pollution or soil compaction.It's all about tractiontraction . I have seen a single horse drag aa utility vehicle around like childs'play. Out West 40 horses used to pull huge combines over all kinds of landscape.

Of course finding teamsters, blacksmith's and harness makers might pose a problem but it would be worthwhile to employ those cellphone tappers to do some meaningful work.Yes, with a team of horses, WE CAN!

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 13:13 | 4586078 AlamoJack
AlamoJack's picture

Yep.  Horses are great, BUT mules won't self-destruct like the ponies will.  I just need more grandsons to guide more teams.  Yep.  I can see it now.  The 3-letter agencies will be down my throat with unions, pay-scales and benefit plans.  I guess I'd better learn how to read legalese - again.

Burma Shave

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 05:54 | 4584749 Poor Grogman
Poor Grogman's picture

Oil is extremely useful in agriculture, and indispensable for some things, such as large scale cropping.

HOWEVER, cropping does not need to be large scale. It is the cheap oil that has made large scale cropping feasible, practicable, profitable, and relatively labour free.

But if there is less oil than there used to be, and plenty of people...

Then perhaps we transition gradually to some kind of more decentralised, let's call it a high tech/agrarian or Techno-grarian ( today's new word) society.

Wow wouldn't that be great!

.
.
.
On the other hand everyone might just starve to death while, acting like they are in a mad max movie. ( not me of course, I will be fine)

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 02:55 | 4584617 magnetosphere
magnetosphere's picture

real farmers have in fact used biofuels over the past 120 years.  if you include everything from embodied energy in the tractors to water transport, land transport, ventilation, lighting, heating, fuel for vehicles and machines, refrigeration, and embodied energy in fertilizers, the answer is the same.  on paper, it is in the right ballpark, i.e. not off the mark by an order of magnitude.  a major stumbling block is political, however.  would the rich people rather drive their cars on joyrides or let the poor people eat?

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 05:48 | 4584744 Taint Boil
Taint Boil's picture

 

 

Put a gallon of gas in your car, drive it until you run out of gas then push it back – that is how much “work” is in a gallon of gas. 

If you took a 1,500-watt space heater and left it on full blast for a full 24-hour day, that's about how much heat is in a gallon of gas. 

If it were possible for human beings to digest gasoline, a gallon would contain about 31,000 food calories -- the energy in a gallon of gasoline is equivalent to the energy in about 110 McDonald’s hamburgers.

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 01:48 | 4584551 thestarl
thestarl's picture

I remember all the beautiful market gardens that used to ring the western fringes of Sydney CO now just hideous energy sucking housing developements,sad really. 

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 05:37 | 4584738 Mentaliusanything
Mentaliusanything's picture

Yes, Kellyville, Blacktown, Camden even the citrus orchards at Penrith. All Gone to a wet dream called Ponzi Housing. Mile upon Mile of aging concrete roof tiles and trimmed hedges that depreciate every day. What a wet Dream becoming a nightmare it will be. Oh and your old if you remember that.

Sun, 03/23/2014 - 23:15 | 4584266 Tasty Sandwich
Tasty Sandwich's picture

Gotta hand it to you.  You've been trying to explain this oil situation for years now.

I've had other accounts on here where I'd go on and on about oil.

I finally decided that I'm going to just try to avoid it for the most part.

People either get it or they don't.  It's such a predicament that most people's brains simply cannot (or will not) grasp it.

I've come to the conclusion that it actually wouldn't be good if everyone did understand.  It's like the asteroid situation.  If everyone knows it will all be over soon, then why go to work or pay your bills?

Sun, 03/23/2014 - 23:45 | 4584353 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Somewhat.

I see it as inexorable.  It defies all human action.

That includes me typing.  There is nothing that can be done about it whether people realize it or not.

Sun, 03/23/2014 - 23:56 | 4584381 Tasty Sandwich
Tasty Sandwich's picture

I'd consider the world lucky if it only gets knocked back to the 1700s.

I suspect it will be more like a new dark age, though, especially if the world's nuclear powers resort to desperate measures.

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 00:05 | 4584393 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

My read is 1840s.  A lot of medical work can be done without the refrigerated drugs. Knowing about cleanliness is a big surgical advance even without stents etc, which can't be shipped.

Sailboats can still ship small amounts of stuff, and the sailboat owners will be the new internet-like rich kids, but they will lose satellite weather information.  A few decades of cannibalizing electronics should hold onto radio for a while, but the internet will die quite fast.

They'll have the best sail knowledge there is, and know where the currents are and such things, but they will sail right into hurricanes and not know it.  Coastal cities in blight/famine may get some food shipped in but you won't feed 15 million human cities like that.

In general I sympathize with your point, but it leads to "look, don't have children."  The conclusion is that's all about population control, but no, absolutely not.  It's about not wanting them to have to watch their children die at such a young age.

And as soon as you say that -- "Okay, I'll ignore him.  He must be wrong because what he's saying is so unpleasant."

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 06:22 | 4584760 Poor Grogman
Poor Grogman's picture

Demand destruction occurs as oil gets expen$ive.

This is already happening in parts of the world, where wages do not allow one to eat and use large amounts of fuel as well.

Some very poor places never really got into consuming much oil to begin with. Tibet prior to Chinese rule might be one example.

Keep in mind that a lot of the earths minerals that were once deeply hidden are now dug up, processed, and readily available to us. This is a positive outcome from burning a substantial amount of the oil.

The ability of any one individual to consume colossal amounts of "Stuff" has potentially existed many times before in history, but never seems to be much of a long term arrangement. Most of the loot eventually gets redistributed, by war, looting, religious zealotry, changing circumstances, political upheaval, or goes up in smoke on hookers and gambling. Or if it survives ends up being a dusty museum display.

Roman roads took a lot of energy (Joules) to build, but many of them are still in use today. Not a bad ROI (Return for your kilo joule) really...

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 06:49 | 4584773 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Close, but no cigar.

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 06:09 | 4584756 Curiously_Crazy
Curiously_Crazy's picture

What we do have is around 58 billion tonnes of Shale oil though. (yeah yeah, fracking sucks - that's why it's all still sitting in the ground because of environmental issues - but it *is* there)

Heck they recently found a reserve in South Australia alone that could be worth up to 20 trillion.

Sun, 03/23/2014 - 21:52 | 4583999 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

What more can we say to the international community, United States of America is Nigga Rich.

 

/sarc

Sun, 03/23/2014 - 21:55 | 4584007 Luckhasit
Luckhasit's picture

In other words, if you aint above that line, then your ripe to be ass fucked by the big dogs, corporations and terrorists.

Sun, 03/23/2014 - 21:57 | 4584014 dirtyfiles
dirtyfiles's picture

yea but US gov says the line is to high need to be adjusted for national security..

Sun, 03/23/2014 - 21:55 | 4584011 BarnacleBill
BarnacleBill's picture

Always remember, though, that with gold there is more risk in custody than in price, these wicked days. 

http://barlowscayman.blogspot.com/2012/12/how-to-buy-gold.html   There are some very scary stories out there, of how gold can be leased out by banks and warehouses, and never returned. Be very careful.

Sun, 03/23/2014 - 22:01 | 4584022 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Exactly what about the topic of this article suggested to you that gold needed to be discussed?

Sun, 03/23/2014 - 22:01 | 4584029 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Americans planned well for this phase of the energy re-crisis: SUVs! Poorly designed McMansions! Bankrupt mass transit and degrading infrastructure!
Hell yes we are on it! Just drill baby drill so you can shop till ya drop!

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 04:20 | 4584703 Jayda1850
Jayda1850's picture

The truest and most depressing comment I read all day.

Sun, 03/23/2014 - 22:15 | 4584069 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Arrest Loyd Blankfein.

Sun, 03/23/2014 - 22:18 | 4584083 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Draw and quarter Lloyd Blankfein, next to Jamie Dimon.

Televised, YouTubed, Twittered.

Sun, 03/23/2014 - 22:19 | 4584074 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

"and with the current geo-political fireworks as much about energy (costs, supply, and demand) as they are human rights,"

Please, none of these son of a bitches gives a damn about human rights. They use that as a convenient excuse to either invade the oil rich nations they want to invade, or contain other nations the want to contain. "Humans" are nothing more than cattle to TPTB.

Sun, 03/23/2014 - 22:17 | 4584077 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Russia and China ahead of the U.S. yet we insist on poking them in the ribs or selling out to them.

The U.S. is clearly in the hands of those who seek it's doom and the enslavement of it's populace.

Sun, 03/23/2014 - 22:51 | 4584204 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

But we must be enslaved for our own protection. Our freedoms are the greatest threat to the System.

Sun, 03/23/2014 - 22:18 | 4584086 FredFlintstone
FredFlintstone's picture

Korea is kicking ass. Is that North or South Korea?

Sun, 03/23/2014 - 22:20 | 4584089 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Really? You have to ask? I suspect you forgot your sarc tag.

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 05:45 | 4584742 Mentaliusanything
Mentaliusanything's picture

Funny but the Arabian Gulf is not mentioned. Is that because they are like a used condom ready for the flip?

But they do have sand, Lots of sand so thats a probabable saving grace.

Sun, 03/23/2014 - 22:28 | 4584116 kurt
kurt's picture

What if the 100% level is really half as much? What then apocalypiticians?

Sun, 03/23/2014 - 22:41 | 4584156 Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture

I wonder how GS calculated these figures, intuitively to me it would seem that national "self-sufficiency" is not a scalar metric, but a whole host of hard to define, hard to quantify/measure, hard to even discover, facts, including things like the state of the electrical and gas grids, energy "efficiency" of houses and business, energy requirements for average person including transportation, percentage of food from domestic agriculture and state of that agriculture in terms of mechanization, whether bulk shipping is mostly rail, waterway, air, truck, etc., number of citizens on government assistance and to what degree it's economically necessary, whether or not there is any domestic heavy or light industry and their degrees of mechanization, etc. etc. etc. How much of these countries' current societies are dependent on things they'd have a very hard time substituting for, because it's scarce domestically and/or must be imported (oil, rare earth metals, timber, meat, cars etc.)

The "no-duh" rule of thumb is, net-exporters will do better for longer. At least until the resource wars kick into high gear.

Sun, 03/23/2014 - 22:43 | 4584159 atomicwasted
atomicwasted's picture

Populist, nationalist bullshit at its finest.

Sun, 03/23/2014 - 22:48 | 4584186 abunusaybah
abunusaybah's picture

lost me at " production moving to the U.S"  ....?

Sun, 03/23/2014 - 22:49 | 4584197 besnook
besnook's picture

this post is a great arguement for a single world system where everything and everyone is free to move a single currency and personal private labor around the world for the price of a plane ticket and an internet connection. think about how much easier it would be to collect child support?

 

the problem is, the vehicle called the united states of america is a hummer(lol) in a china shop(lol). japan has made their decision in a classic japanese way, the essence of passive aggressive. germany is getting impatient but is riding along for now. i suspect merkel would run away if she could and follow her crumbs back to wilhelm but she is trapped by the child locks for now. russia and china present the clear alternative for a stable world but the hummer needs to be retrofitted with smooth riding suspension and shock absorbers first. we will see how that works out. putin warning the usa that a roadside bomb could fuck up their ride is a good start.

Sun, 03/23/2014 - 22:54 | 4584209 TrustbutVerify
TrustbutVerify's picture

Increased efficiency of energy use increases self-sufficnency.  Every nation should push in this direction. 

Sun, 03/23/2014 - 23:31 | 4584316 Seer
Seer's picture

Um, no.

Jevons Paradox.

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 08:23 | 4584757 Rakshas
Rakshas's picture

JP would not be an issue if you seek to do the same level of activity more efficiently; though some would argue stagnation is no fun at all I suggest alignment with nature resolves this issue........for some...

.... swim against the current die tired, enjoy the ride have fun ... 

 

 

Edit:

As a example from personal experience; facing a divorce I began to ponder where I had wandered off the path, how had life become so tiresome; and after much reflection I realized energy conservation was the key to solving my woes. Energy is money I thought save energy save money, use money to enjoy life perhaps, I thought if I can save energy that will solve my problems. 

Rejuvenated I began with a simple plan, first I improved the insulation in my house and reduced my oil consumption from 6000 liters to 2000 liters the insulation job was paid for in the first heating season. I then used the money saved from the heating oil not used during subsequent heating seasons to purchase rather cheap solar collectors and further reduced my oil consumption, my next move was to install a solar mass to store more heat in my house and better regulate the heating system – thermal inertia.  I then deployed the realized savings toward the purchase of solar electric generation equipment {I need to give a shout out here to Obama for crashing the price of solar by fucking everything up so terribly allowing me to get the stuff for a song} and LED lighting; further reduction in energy usage and savings, to be clear I never added more money to the pot everything had to be paid for using the money I saved through energy conservation, essentially I was still budgeting based on my initial consumption and electricity usage.

 I added more solar electric over time eventually becoming a net energy supplier to my electric utility. I could have stopped there but i became obsessed and added still more to my solar array but i received no benefit from this as my utility does not pay me for this energy, but i soon realized I could benefit in other ways and began to deploy my savings on the purchase of efficient hydroponic equipment thus turning my obsession with energy conservation toward self sufficiency in other areas of life. I truly enjoyed learning the process though I never imagined I would become so enthralled with having a green thumb, soon my plants were growing like Weeds – no pun intended and life became much more relaxing.

But, unfortunately energy self sufficiency cannot solve all of life’s woes; although it had given me new purpose and I had learned so many things on my new journey, my wife could see the changes and she was truly happy for me but alas she could not be happy with me and discussion turned to divorce once more.

Looking back I realized I could have chosen many paths but I could not regret having travelled down this one, I smiled and told her it was ok I understood she must do as her heart dictates and with that I packed a bag kissed her lightly and walked away content in the knowledge that I had gained so much from my simple plan. On my way to the airport I called the police to report her little grow op; she should be paroled soon. Energy conservation it has many uses…….:)  

 

 

 

 

Sun, 03/23/2014 - 23:14 | 4584257 are we there yet
are we there yet's picture

This graph has problems. This graph says that both the Czech republic and the Ukraine each use nearly 3 times the energy of Japan. Also this graph says that the Czech republic uses almost as much energy as all of the US. I am not buying it.

Sun, 03/23/2014 - 23:48 | 4584358 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

dood, the graph is just % of domestic consumption covered by domestic production.  It is thereby size normalized.

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 00:02 | 4584390 GooseShtepping Moron
GooseShtepping Moron's picture

The bars on the graph express the percentage of energy self-sufficiency (i.e. the percentage of total energy use sourced from within the country). The total amount of energy used in each country is not reflected at all; it has been divided out. Only the ratio of self-provided energy to total energy use remains, which clearly will bear no necessary resemblance to the total amount of energy consumed in each country.

Sun, 03/23/2014 - 23:23 | 4584299 Duc888
Duc888's picture

"My daughter knew her business at just over 2, my grandson got it down at 2 1/2. I read in the UK papers that primary school kids are turning up for first year classes in diapers. Jesus! My mother had me trained in my 2's."

 

I just turned 50 and I still shit my pants on occasion.  Mostly when I am within earshot of a Tee Vee, MSM and all that has a detrimental effect on my lower bowels.

 

IQ points dribble out of my anus when I get too close to a stupid box.

Sun, 03/23/2014 - 23:57 | 4584385 Dan The Man
Dan The Man's picture

The children will be potty trained when the state demands it.

Sun, 03/23/2014 - 23:39 | 4584336 loveyajimbo
loveyajimbo's picture

Anyone still listening to the House of Blankfein deserves the sore ass the next morning...

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 00:48 | 4584449 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

I see Sweden annexing Norway, and Germany annexing Poland.

Belgium might annex the Netherlands, or buy it with all the USTs they got.

China will make deals and adapt.

The US doesn't need to annex Canada. They simply need to put a Bitch collar on its PM and a few Cabinet Ministers. QED.

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 01:08 | 4584504 VWAndy
VWAndy's picture

People might want to devote more time to understanding all forms of energies. From all sides.

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 01:54 | 4584557 The wheels on t...
The wheels on the bus are going to fall off's picture

It looks to me that if you work out the mean of all of the countries on this graph then it would be less than 100%? Although i suppose if you expand it to all countries then you would have 100% or more? i hope!

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 02:02 | 4584560 muleskinner
muleskinner's picture

If the world is using 88 million barrels of oil per day, then in 11.5 days or so, it is 1 000 000 000 barrels of oil gone and 100 billion dollars in expense to buy a gallon of gas at 4 bucks a gallon.

In 11,500 days, 1 trillion barrels of oil will be gone.  Divided by 365, the number of years to burn a trillion barrels of oil is approximately 30.

3 trillion in known reserves, the oil will last another 90 years.  But it might decline faster than that, so it is no guarantee to make predictions of when it will be gone.  Reservoir depletion is a hard fact to accept.

The total amount of oil is probably in the 100 trillion barrel range, but it will take 3000 years to find it all and be able to pump it out of the ground, if it can even be done.

There are hundreds of years of coal deposits and coal gasification can manufacture synthetic fuels, so the energy problem is mostly logistical problems.  Oil is abundant, it will last, but getting it there and producing oil products is a bottleneck.

The days of oil gushing from the ground and shipping it everywhere are long gone.

No more 100,000 barrels per day from one well in Saudi Arabia.  The Baku region in Russia had wells that produced 80,000 barrels per day.  Lucas No. 1 was 75 thousand barrels per day.

All gone, might not ever return.  

It's peak oil.

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 02:25 | 4584575 Philalethian
Philalethian's picture

Here's the gamechanger chart.

http://www.testosteronepit.com/home/2014/3/22/this-chart-is-a-true-pictu...

What happens when a whole lot of people that have not eaten in a few days get together down the street from you?

 

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 05:50 | 4584745 Tic tock
Tic tock's picture

by comparison, in Russia the most important chart inw is domestic-still effciency.

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 06:12 | 4584758 dogismycopilot
dogismycopilot's picture

you think i am joking when i tell you to find a nice Russian woman to marry.

or Canadian but i have yet to see a really attractive Canadian woman but i am sure they exist.

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 06:24 | 4584762 Tic tock
Tic tock's picture

I'd settle for one who can drive,

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 07:03 | 4584782 Absinthe Minded
Absinthe Minded's picture

Peak War?

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 07:03 | 4584779 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

The problems resulting from your chart drive many of our biggest issues we face. Below is a list of the worlds ten most crucial problems counted down from "least to most crucial" 

The world must begin to address these many problems with long term solutions. Most of these are issues that center on our sustainability. Sadly, politicians do not deal well with such things leaving us without direction.

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/11/the-worlds-10-worst-problems.html

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 07:19 | 4584792 kenezen
kenezen's picture

The sad fact remains that 10 billion predicted as early as 1966 will begin to change environmental structures like air even with cleaner practices in place. primarily methane from biological beings, animals necessary to protein intake would be curtailed pets would be eliminated. Then people or the atmospherse would become inhospitable. Now we change predictions and while still defining cures climate change without the primary cause of the change.

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 07:52 | 4584830 MassDecep
MassDecep's picture

Satanic chatter......

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 08:46 | 4584928 Save_America1st
Save_America1st's picture

Kinda makes more sense why Germany wants as much of their gold back as they can get right now.  They're gonna need it to buy oil and gas from Russia.

U.S. dollar will become increasingly worthless in trade for oil from now on as Russia and China work towards new petro-trading avenues of Yuan, Ruble, gold, etc. instead of the dying petro-dollar standard. 

Makes sense that they will move closer to siding with 'ol Pooty-Poots on this whole Ukraine thing going forward instead of the U.S. or the E.U.  

Germany might wanna think about exiting the E.U. and telling them to fuck off.  Get their gold back and take care of themselves instead of supporting the southern Euro losers who vacation all year and have nothing to export but their socialist debt. 

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 10:22 | 4585315 elwind45
elwind45's picture

we are all exporters of debt and socialism but we practice freedom within our borders. best of both worlds? export inflation and talk a mean bullshit game of democracy at home? does you still think America better or is you think EURO too strong?

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 08:56 | 4584959 TrumpXVI
TrumpXVI's picture

Not coincidentally, the desperately bankrupt PIIGS are all well below 50% energy self-sufficiency.  Most of them, like Greece, import a very large percentage of liquid fossil fuel (crude oil) to meet their energy needs.  

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 10:06 | 4585248 elwind45
elwind45's picture

When did China switch over from coal? Buffett train set is running a lot of empty cars in the wrong direction recently. Coal and freight cars are moving south empty? Is China still an importer of coal?

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 12:57 | 4586012 AlamoJack
AlamoJack's picture

Foreign trade will NEVER be efficient as long as governments are involved.  What HORSEDUNG you peddle sir.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!