Guess Which Precious Metal Is Controlled By The Russians

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Tim Staermose of Sovereign Man blog,

Palladium is like the Rodney Dangerfield of precious metals. It never gets any respect.

If you ask someone about precious metals, in fact, just about everyone has heard of gold and silver. And occasionally platinum.

But palladium is one of those obscure precious metals that few people think about, or even know about.

Aside from actually having its own currency code (XPD), palladium is widely used in a variety of industrial applications, from spark plugs to catalytic converters to hydrocarbon ‘cracking’ to electronic components.

And here’s something most people don’t know: most of the world’s palladium is mined in Russia.

Since October 2013, Palladium prices have had a moderate boost—about a 5.3% increase in five months.

But given what’s happening in Russia, prices could soar. In fact, with trade sanctions looming, palladium could be taken off the world market indefinitely.

As the following chart shows, palladium has just broken out to a new 52-week high and is showing strong upward momentum.

1 year palladium Guess which precious metal is controlled by the Russians...

Moreover, if you look at the 5-year chart, it could be about to break out to even longer-term highs.

5 year palladium Guess which precious metal is controlled by the Russians...

I would consider buying palladium today, with a stop-loss order to protect your capital, at $759. That means if the market should prove this thesis wrong, the loss would be limited to just 4%.

I think the near-term upside target is the 5-year high of $855. That’s about an 8% gain from where we are today.

An upside of 8% versus a downside of 4% makes palladium a good risk/reward trade, given that the odds of the higher-price outcome are much better than the odds of the lower-price outcome.

But if tensions between the West and Russia escalate and trade sanctions stay in place for a prolonged period, $855 could be a very conservative upside target for palladium.

The last time Russia withheld palladium supplies from world markets back in 2000, the price rose 151% from a low of $433 in January 2000 to over $1,090 an ounce by January 2001.

In a scenario like that, palladium would be an incredibly profitable trade.

One easy way to take a position in palladium is via the ETFS Physical Palladium Shares (PALL on the New York Stock Exchange).

A new physical palladium ETF sponsored by Standard Bank has also just launched in South Africa.

And Absa Bank, which already sponsors the world’s largest platinum-backed ETF, has also announced it will launch a palladium ETF called NewPalladium. It will list on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange on March 27th.

These new palladium ETF launches, coming at a time of tightening supply due to Russian sanctions, could easily add more upward momentum to palladium prices, as they will withdraw supply from the market to physically back their shares.

However, if you want to avoid the possibility of any counterparty risk, there’s no substitute for owning the physical metal yourself.

The Royal Canadian Mint has in the past minted palladium versions of its very popular and instantly recognizable Maple Leaf bullion coins.

You can also buy 1 troy ounce palladium bars from most major dealers.

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Mon, 03/24/2014 - 10:44 | 4585387 dow jones 20000
dow jones 20000's picture

I'll stick with gold, silver, brass, and lead thank you very much.

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 10:48 | 4585399 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

It is the launch of these ETF that will hinder a rise - a tool of banker manipulation!

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 11:03 | 4585466 SoilMyselfRotten
SoilMyselfRotten's picture

The Russians have a lot of nerve controlling a precious metal. Time for NATO to send them some depleted uranium.

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 11:12 | 4585498 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Palladium is an interesting metal.  It is impervious to all gases except hydrogen, so it could be used in certain kinds of electric cars now being looked into (fuel cells).  In can also hold 900 times its volume of hydrogen. 

It is unique, yet not that expensive.  A little hard to find though (hint: think Canadian Pd Maples).  But, highly recommeded as a small diversification/investment if you can get some.

Disclosure; The Central Bank of DoChenRollingBearing has a small amount of reserves of Pd.

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 12:02 | 4585732 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

The real super metal is.....Rhodium, DCRB!

I am going to acquire an ounce of it and see what it looks like.

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 12:06 | 4585753 prains
prains's picture

no, the super metal is bonestars mellon, you can wack that bucket with a 2x6 and all it does is make a ping sound.

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 12:19 | 4585810 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Check this one out, but I cannot find any vendors:

(wickedopedia):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruthenium

But, if we could hibernate, we could wake up in 200 years when H Beam Piper discovers Collapsium!

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 14:16 | 4586352 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Ruthenium and Rhenium ("near platinum metals") will find use in newer airplane engine turbine blades (using them as parts of the alloys so they can run hotter).  If you can buy and wait (perhaps a long time), you might do well.

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 19:49 | 4587960 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Given the future cost of fuel & benefits of war I think they'd be in missiles or drones more than passenger/freight craft.

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 19:50 | 4587962 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

I read that sci-fi series - fun reading.

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 12:45 | 4585960 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Well, this entirely explains the huge delivery notice bump in palladium.

http://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/MetalsIssuesAndStopsMTDReport.pdf

This is about 54% of the total registered stock of palladium. 

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 12:10 | 4585776 BandGap
BandGap's picture

It has the unique gift of overcoming Vander Waal's forces intersticially when absorbing hydrogen, which is why it is used in cold fusion experiements.   This property also allows for hydrogen storage since the molecule can be "packed" within the metal matrix itself and not just on the surface. Finally, this is why it is a good hydrogenation catalyst, although typically less selective than the softer platinum type.

And it's a pretty cool metal.

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 12:22 | 4585854 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

DCRB, what metals are mined in Peru?

You might have some buying opportunities you are not aware of!! Like going to the mine itself.

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 15:32 | 4586278 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Been trying to go to Peru´s only real gold refinery, but they don´t accept fringe bloggers as visitors.

I will soon finish my series of metals mining in Peru at my blog.  Gold was done a couple of days ago.  Today, I have finished copper, and will do the rest as long as my wife lets me finish...

 

EDIT:

Done!  

"Gold and Other Metals Production in Peru" is first, then "Mines and Metals in Peru":

http://tinyurl.com/mk2fyt3

http://tinyurl.com/n3fxsf8

 

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 20:10 | 4588056 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Is it? If it's overloaded with carbon-monoxide will it stop working as a catalyst? That's what I read.
http://rspa.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/176/967/474

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 11:13 | 4585514 johny2
johny2's picture

the chance that it will trigger the stop loss before profit is about 2/1

if you want to gamble, at least give yourself a good chance.

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 12:07 | 4585759 BorisTheBlade
BorisTheBlade's picture

Russia will return this loan in kind in the form of concentrated plutonium with supplementary deiterium and tritium.

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 12:27 | 4585883 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Time for Vlad and the ChiCom Leader to go on TV holding a pallet of USTs and hold them hostage.

"The BB game is starting, Reggie, hurry!"
"Awright---What???? What is happening to the signal??"
"Good evening, Bath House. We have seized your ESPN feed. Look closely at this pallet (close-up camera zooms in)."
Bath House: "*Gulp!*"
"That's right. Vlad and I are holding these Treasuries hostage! These are our demands......."

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 20:09 | 4588051 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Russia's well stocked up on uranium, depleted & enriched, so they can return the favour very quickly.

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 11:49 | 4585681 fonestar
fonestar's picture

I'll stick with gold, silver, brass, and lead thank you very much.

That's the spirit.  Don't investigate other alternative investments and always remember to keep a closed mind.

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 12:10 | 4585782 BandGap
BandGap's picture

I invest in people. And you're my new buddy.

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 12:22 | 4585851 fonestar
fonestar's picture

Okay good!  And yes, people, friends and associates are the best investments.

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 12:52 | 4585987 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

One good example of this that I'm shocked more ZH'ers don't pick up on, given our proclivity for consumption of this fine substance:

Liquor!

Think about wheat and corn prices, and food/beverage price inflation more generally.  Think about how long it lasts.  Think about what it could get you in a SHTF scenario.  Consider how aging can actually increase the value of the product in some circumstances.  If you aren't stockpiling liquor, you are missing out on a seriously great opportunity.  Consider especially shooters/fifths from a divisibility perspective. 

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 16:09 | 4586912 Miffed Microbio...
Miffed Microbiologist's picture

Your post made me laugh. We were at a friend's house for dinner and he was bemoaning the fact he had nothing for retirement saved up and was facing he was going to work until he dropped in his "damn" vineyard. At least we had a steady income and had invested in 40IKs.My husband and I( after cleaning off our projectile wine hurl off his walls) told him he was far richer than we could ever hope to be. He has 56 barrels of exquisite Syrah, Petite Syrah and Cab. 50 acres dry farmed with 20 sheep just to keep the weeds down. A fantastic industrial well. Chickens and a veggie garden. Great neighbors like us that have always had his back no matter what came down ( we had helped him save his house and life during a wild fire).

It's funny how some perceive wealth. He viewed us as wealthy when we consider ourselves wage slaves. His friendship is worth more to me then any of our professional collegues. They certainly would be no help in a SHTF scenario.

Miffed;-)

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 21:32 | 4588351 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

I've brewed mead in the past.  New 50gal wine barrels run about $500/bbl.

Wish I could brew enough mead to fill up a 50gal bbl.

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 06:51 | 4589236 samcontrol
samcontrol's picture

you are all talk...
why don,t you trade lives.

25 + year old scotch is a good way to go.

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 19:54 | 4587983 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

bourbon, vodka, etc., have had their mention along with tobacco.
Not frequently but your point is valid. I usually add morphine to the mix for suggestions since it has no real expiry date, unlike conventional antibiotics & is much more useful than just plain aspirin, for consumption/injury or barter.
Silver itself is an antibiotic so under money/useful it's covered. Just make sure you have the means (batteries, clean water) to make colloidal silver for infusing silver into bandages.

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 19:53 | 4587981 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

an "open" mind to invest in things that go to zero will bankrupt a person, like bitcoin.
Not smart.
The markets are heavily rigged so that which is intangible should be shunned 99% of the time.

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 10:48 | 4585394 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

ALL Ukrainian military posts, stations and outposts in Crimea are now fully under Russian control. It is just under a couple of hundred military facilities. The last one has just been handed over to Russia peacefully.

All Ukrainians soldiers in Crimea are under Russian control and will be kicked out within 48 hours... After that, Putin can move on to the main prize... Current NATO estimates is that Russia can take Kiev within 10 hours of war breaking out.

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 10:50 | 4585405 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

I would wager that is what the troops and tanks massing on the border are for.

I don't see any designs on the Baltic States, but reclaiming the Ukraine, yes.

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 11:01 | 4585427 dow jones 20000
dow jones 20000's picture

Russian control over the entirety of Ukraine in the short therm is central to Putin & Friends' goal of increased hegemony in Eastern (and by extension, Western) Europe.

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 11:08 | 4585483 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Less than a century ago Russia lost over 20 Million soldiers and civilian Men, Women, and Children repelling invaders from Germany so it is understandable that they are sensitive about their Western border and the EU Brussels Bandits.

If you want to speak of hegemony in Europe in the past 100 years point the finger at Germany.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II_casualties_of_the_Soviet_Union

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 11:56 | 4585701 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

I wouldn't count out Russia to not attempt new annexations.  They have set a well-defended southern perimeter from Georgia to the Dardenelles and can now move northward and westward behind this screen.  No one noticed the Georgian incursion when it happened. 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Georgia%E2%80%93Russia_crisis

It's been very quiet since. 

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 10:56 | 4585432 SSN715
SSN715's picture

While the Chessmaster is plotting his next move, Obammy is out on the golf course.  Could seem to care less.  As if he either doesn't understand, or doesn't care.  It's madness.

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 11:26 | 4585583 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

"Help, Reggie! This sandtrap is made of quicksand! Get Help! I'm going down the wrong way!"

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 10:56 | 4585433 SSN715
SSN715's picture

While the Chessmaster is plotting his next move, Obammy is out on the golf course.  Could seem to care less.  As if he either doesn't understand, or doesn't care.  It's madness.

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 11:05 | 4585476 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

So exactly what should he do? What would make you happy?

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 11:40 | 4585650 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Fire a damn nuke at the rooskies!

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 13:18 | 4586089 N2OJoe
N2OJoe's picture

Get on that one way trip to Mars.

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 13:18 | 4586091 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

The intellectual bankruptcy of most posters here is clearly on display when a very simple question is junked...

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 13:23 | 4586103 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

There is a lot of truth in that statement.

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 11:13 | 4585516 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

I mean, it's almost like Obama and Putin are on the same side, or something.

"I will have more flexibility after the election." -- Barack Hussein Obama

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 17:20 | 4587282 NihilistZero
NihilistZero's picture

Now take a moment and think before you answer...

Ready...

Do any of you really think Obama has any real say in the foreign policy decsions of this country?

Sure he drops the last signature, but only after the course was charted by others and he shook his head "yes".

I lov epicking on Obammy as much as the next guy, but he's not calling the shots any more than Bush Jr was.  GWB just BELIEVED so much it masked the fact that the ideas were spoon fed to him as well.

Puppet rulers all since Kennedy...

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 19:16 | 4587827 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Did Shrub Jr. really believe? I'd say his comical grin & tripping over his words were his lack of poker-face at so obviously not being in charge, absolutely flabbergasted anyone else could believe he was calling the shots because he sure as hell knew he wasn't.

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 23:59 | 4588834 NihilistZero
NihilistZero's picture

Good point.   Never gave him credit for possibly playing the fool as opposed to just being one...

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 11:22 | 4585567 Dollar Bill Hiccup
Dollar Bill Hiccup's picture

Someone's gonna miss those Panzer divisions ...

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 10:47 | 4585400 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Give the E.P.A. ten more years and Palladium will be at $20K per ounce.

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 10:47 | 4585401 Acidtest Dummy
Acidtest Dummy's picture

Good for cold fusion research also, but only if you have physical.

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 10:56 | 4585423 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I received some of those new blue 100's at the bank Friday and several were stuck together. Is that the cold fusion you're talking about? :)

<It certainly brings new meaning to the term "greenback".>

Mon, 03/24/2014 - 16:29 | 4587025 Acidtest Dummy
Acidtest Dummy's picture

You might be thinking of zero-point energy. But if you you got more money out of the bank than you put in, that is essentially the hope of cold fusion. (Aside from violating the FIRST RULE of banking: you always put more money in the bank than you take out. [second rule: put your money in the bank and _maybe_ they'll let you visit it sometime.])                                          /Hey BTW, prosecuting war criminals sounds cool.

 

 

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