Case Shiller Home Price Index Declines For Third Month A Row: Longest Negative Stretch Since March 2012

Tyler Durden's picture


Another month, another sequential drop in the Case Shiller NSA index - the one the index creators themselves say should be used, not the Seasonally Adjusted data used by most commentators eager to find the best data. At a sequential decline of -0.08% in January, this was the third drop in a row - the longest consecutive period of sequential declines since March 2012  - and post a year over year increase of 13.24%, down from 13.38% in December, and the lowest since September 2013. Clearly, the pricing gains across the country are slowing.


Amusingly, not even the Seasonally Adjusted data showed the complete "weather-free" data many were hoping for, because while sequentially the 20 City Composite Index beat on a squential basis at 0.85%, above expectations of 0.6%, the Year over Year increase of 13.24% missed expectations of 13.42% and was down from 13.38% last month.

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Tue, 03/25/2014 - 09:20 | 4589595 newsguy68
newsguy68's picture

War On Wood: WHO Claims 3.5 Million Killed From Wood Stoves

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 09:29 | 4589642 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

TY for link (I think), these pyschopaths won't stop until they have all of humanity living in 10'x10' concrete cells, or dead.

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 09:37 | 4589665 jbvtme
jbvtme's picture

wood stoves are dangerous. you can't take one on an airplane?

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 09:30 | 4589644 greatbeard
greatbeard's picture

idiot.  Find a semblence of a proper venue.

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 09:51 | 4589713 Osmium
Osmium's picture

You'll get my wood when you pry it from my cold dead hands.



Tue, 03/25/2014 - 10:27 | 4589889 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Oh, I get it.

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 10:28 | 4589894 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Hopefully the mortician does pry it from your cold dead hands so your family can have an open casket funeral.

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 10:43 | 4589940 Hal n back
Hal n back's picture

amazing that government cannot do what it is supossed to do, but has its fingers and hands in everything else.


In a real business, that would be called a lack of leadership direction, focus  and accountability.


Another way of viewing it is not paying attn to the critical success factors.

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 09:21 | 4589598 So Close
So Close's picture

Role liar loans in 3.. 2.. 1..

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 09:26 | 4589624 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Hey this time around, I may do a NINJA loan myself! Hey you can't lose, FED always got ya back.

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 09:24 | 4589612 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Tent-up demand.

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 09:31 | 4589647 yogibear
yogibear's picture

One way to avoid ever increasing property taxes. People lease their land and never really own it.

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 09:25 | 4589615 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Philly housing index rolled over at the end of Feb


Currently sitting at 196.  Looks like deflation is picking up momentum - again.

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 09:33 | 4589632 q99x2
q99x2's picture

There are more homes on my jogging path each week. I usually jog in the same area.

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 09:29 | 4589643 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

And if you read the CNBC article about this, it's exactly the opposite.  "US home prices gain in January, shrugging off brutal winter"

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 09:32 | 4589649 PontifexMaximus
PontifexMaximus's picture


Tue, 03/25/2014 - 09:34 | 4589650 yogibear
yogibear's picture

All about perception. Eventually the math trumps perception.

Wall Street and NAR are at it again. Pump up housing.

Housing bubble #2 is about ready to burst.

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 09:38 | 4589668 machineh
machineh's picture

While sequentially the 20 City Composite Index beat on a squential basis at 0.85%, above expectations of 0.6%, the Year over Year increase of 13.24% missed expectations of 13.42% and was down from 13.38% last month.

Then somebody can't do math. You can't simultaneously beat on the monthly rate while missing on the annual rate, unless the estimates were inconsistent.

Who is making these projections anyway -- professional Realtors(TM)? There's your problem ...

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 09:42 | 4589688 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

Residential RE rising at anything above 4% is a fool's paradise. In this environment, with low inflation, 13% y-o-y is absurd and obscene.

RE bubble 2.0 about to go POP this summer.

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 09:52 | 4589717 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

I suspect a coming housing dump has more to do with joblessness than low inflation.  And also all those Wall Street momos dumping all their cash investment RE purchases at the very bottom.

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 09:46 | 4589699 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

This is the predicted "re-acceleration" that was supposed to multiply on top of the previous acceleration of economic improvement that some 20 year old from Goldman warned us about in the same breath that he declared WW3 was "transient".

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 09:51 | 4589709 1stepcloser
1stepcloser's picture

but CNBS has this headline 

Home prices extend win streak in January: S&P/Case-Shiller

ry: S&P/Case-Shiller 

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 09:52 | 4589721 ArkansasAngie
ArkansasAngie's picture

If investors have pulled back and first time home buyers don't qualify, who is buying?  The Russians?  The Chinese?  Eric Holder (he's awash in bribe money and misappropriated funds)?

The answer is ... fools who voted for Obumster

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 09:56 | 4589737 greatbeard
greatbeard's picture

>> fools who voted for Obumster

You mean the fools who voted for Romney are not buying?

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 17:32 | 4591810 NihilistZero
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+1 Great Beard

The sane of us need to call out the incessant Read Team cheerleading that's poisoning this site.  Everytime I read shit like "Reagan ended the Cold War" (propoganda bullshit as the Soviets were dying from the inside by the mid 70's) I get sick.  Smart enogh to read Zero Hedge but stupid enough to fall for .gov propoganda as long as it's from Team Red.  Cognitive dissonance is so dangerous...

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 10:03 | 4589761 new game
new game's picture

who is buying? tail end of want a be landlords, mom and pop jonnie come lates, move up buyers with a real job that finally got there home sold; to name a few.  remember most sheeple don't know wtf...all good in the neighborhooooooooood!

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 09:55 | 4589735 new game
new game's picture

for rational price understanding i take the 30 yr fixed interest rate and factor the average pi for average price and get a result. then look at income. then look at percentage cash vs financed. that will give me a result that tells the true story.

also the hard part is the pipeline of foreclosures and composite of cash sales.

imo the market is overheated, but with the bond curve flatening and signaling higher rates as tellen the yellen said, homes will continue the march to a price drop by an event unanounced and sudden...

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 15:51 | 4591439 Raymond K Hessel
Raymond K Hessel's picture



Sounds like Common Core maths to me.

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 10:01 | 4589755 j0nx
j0nx's picture

Tell that to the over $600k homes in the Fairfax County area that have contracts stacking up like never before. Shit is nuts around here. Homes are going for $50k over asking price. Anything reasonable in Prince William sells in a day. It's remarkable just how much money there is in the nice areas outside DC. It's impossible for the rest of us to ever hope to own a home in a neighborhood here that's not illegal alien/section 8 infested.

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 10:13 | 4589812 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

A friend from Montana saw a typical Tuxedo Party at the Mayflower, and commented that she had never seen a tux back home.  They have all of our money.  This too shall pass.

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 15:53 | 4591445 Raymond K Hessel
Raymond K Hessel's picture

That read like a haiku

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 10:03 | 4589764 bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

30 year mortgage rate just spiked nearly 1/2%. Why?

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 10:14 | 4589816 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Mr market still lives?

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 10:15 | 4589820 j0nx
j0nx's picture

Yes I was wondering why myself and came here for an answer only to find your question and no answer.

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 17:40 | 4591844 NihilistZero
NihilistZero's picture

Markets are coming to realize the dealer really is shutting off the supply.  No more FED monetary meth means mortgage rates to 5.5% plus by early 2015, over 6% by late I'll bet.  You think the realt-whores and SFH specuvestors would have learned from the last bust, the FED doesn't give a fuck about them.  Sure they'll bubblize their asset class when convienient, but they'll tank it just as quickly when it suits them.  2015 is going to be a more focused decline than 2008 as the risk isn't spread among oh so many fucked borowwers.  The specuvestor rush for the exits should be quite entertaining.

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 10:06 | 4589772 new game
new game's picture

i was just quoted; 30 yr 4 1/2 percent, zero pts, with 3/4 pt origination.

5:1 arm 3.25 rest the same

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 10:09 | 4589789 bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

Better sign today then.

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 10:31 | 4589891 new game
new game's picture

i can't find a home that is't over priced or sold within a few days of coming on the market.

see your chart and i am alarmed, except, since i am renting mo to mo, i may not buy.

something will give at 5 percent-the pool of buyers dries up and then the fun begins!

thanks bnbdnb -beter not buy dumb nuuub?

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 11:17 | 4590071 bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

You bet. The acronym? Its my name and my favorite music.

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 10:37 | 4589927 thorgodofthunder
thorgodofthunder's picture

13% increase YOY is huge. How can anyone call this anything but a housing recovery?

Monthly data is not relevant generally. YOY is what matters due to seasonal distortions.

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 14:47 | 4590454 IREN Colorado
IREN Colorado's picture

Many local markets saw strong increases in the second half of 2013. This year has started out strong in Colorado but there are many blinking lights on the panel that indicate trouble ahead:

  • Cash investors are a very fickle crew and could pull out at any minute, for any reason. That would cause an immediate contraction in market demand causing prices to crash.
  • Fannie and Freddie have an insane inventory of homes that have been rented, abandoned, or are just being squatted in. When they finally divest themselves (and the US taxpayer) of those, the inventory shortage will evaporate or turn into a serious "glut" causing prices to crash.
  • Employment remains anemic at best. Owned housing requires a stable expanding employment base to keep prices inflated. Without strong employment prices will crash.
  • Income levels for everybody (especially new younger buyers to the market place) have not grown in almost a decade. Without income growth the market can not sustain price increases. The resulting deflation will cause prices to crash.
  • New Taxes and healthcare costs bite into already deflated incomes. These new taxes will depress household budgets, create a lower demand for owned housing, and cause prices to crash.
  • "Tapering" will drive up the cost of money and cause demand for mortgages to drop and prices will crash.

This will not end well.

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 12:53 | 4590525 Ban KKiller
Ban KKiller's picture

Our RE market was called out for being one of the worst. Not for being a "bad" market, per se, but because only the very expensive homes are selling. The middle class homes take forever to sell as there are so many illegally foreclosed on homes in that market.

Easy money bubbles are a bitch to unwind from. Now...factor in that NO ONE is gettng any meaningful raises, obamacare, inflation, loss of benefits and NO new home buyers (unless subsidized by "affordable" city backed housing) and we are going to be stagnant for a while. OH yeah...fuck all those hedge fund buyers and their rentals. If I lived in one of those I would be a horrible tenant. 

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 20:22 | 4592335 Midnight Rider
Midnight Rider's picture

It's the weather.

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