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Fed Finds TBTF Banks Increase Systemic Risk, Have A Funding Advantage

Tyler Durden's picture




 

For some inane reason, about a year ago, there was a brief - and painfully boring - academic tussle between one group of clueless economists and another group of clueless economists, debating whether Too Big To Fail banks enjoy an implicit or explicit taxpayer subsidy, courtesy of their systematic importance (because apparently the fact that these banks only exist because they are too big in the first place must have been lost on both sets of clueless economists). Naturally, it goes without saying that the Fed, which as even Fisher now admits, has over the past five years, worked solely for the benefit of its banker owners and a few good billionaires, has done everything in its power to subsidize banks as much as possible, which is why this debate was so ridiculous it merited precisely zero electronic ink from anyone who is not a clueless economist. Today, the debate, for what it's worth, is finally over, when yet another set of clueless economists, those of the NY Fed itself, say clearly and on the record, that TBTF banks indeed do get a subsidy. To wit: " in fact, the very largest (top-five) nonbank firms also enjoy a funding advantage, but for very large banks it’s significantly larger, suggesting there’s a TBTF funding advantage that’s unique to mega-banks."

Hopefully this will put this absolutely meaningless and most obtuse "debate" in the dustbin of time-wasting economic discourse, which is virtually all of it, where it belongs.

For those who care, here is some more drivel from the NY Fed:

Until recently, having mega-banks seemed like an unmitigated bad; they create systemic risk and there was little convincing evidence of economies of scale beyond a relatively small size. However, just in the last five years several papers have found scale benefits even for trillion-dollar banks. The first paper in the volume, “Do Big Banks Have Lower Operating Costs?” by Anna Kovner, James Vickery, and Lily Zhou, contributes to that recent literature by showing that bank holding company (BHC) expense ratios (noninterest expense/revenue) are declining in bank size. In a back-of-the-envelope calculation, the authors estimate that limiting BHC assets to 4 percent of GDP, as has been advocated, would increase noninterest expense for the industry by $2 billion to $4 billion per quarter. Breaking up mega-banks is not a free lunch.

 

The other edge of the sword, of course, is the potential funding advantages and moral hazard associated with being perceived as too big and complex to fail (TBTF). A paper by João Santos, “Evidence from the Bond Market on Banks’ ‘Too-Big-to-Fail’ Subsidy,” adds to the growing literature that tries to quantify the TBTF funding advantage, but Santos adds a twist; he tests whether all very large firms, including nonfinancial firms, enjoy a funding advantage. He finds that, in fact, the very largest (top-five) nonbank firms also enjoy a funding advantage, but for very large banks it’s significantly larger, suggesting there’s a TBTF funding advantage that’s unique to mega-banks.

 

Along with a funding advantage, being perceived as TBTF may create moral hazard. While it’s almost universally presumed that TBTF banks take excessive risk, recent research challenges that presumption; if the TBTF subsidy increases mega-banks’ franchise value, they may play it safe to conserve that value. In “Do ‘Too-Big-to-Fail’ Banks Take On More Risk?” Gara Afonso, João Santos, and James Traina test the moral hazard hypothesis using Fitch’s government support ratings as a proxy for TBTF status (a support rating reflects a rating agency’s views on the likelihood of government assistance for a systemically important bank). They find that a one-notch increase in support ratings is associated with an 8 percent (relative to average) increase in the impaired loan ratio, consistent with the traditional moral hazard story.

 

The takeaway from these three papers is that bank size has benefits and costs: The upside is the potential for economies of scale and lower operating costs; the downside is the TBTF problem and the attendant funding advantages and moral hazard.

And Bloomberg's take, which as a reminder was one of the very "serious" news organization that - correctly - accused the Fed of providing banks with tens of billions in implicit funding subsidies. What other media outlets, or anyone who defended the opposite view, were thinking is simply beyond comprehension.

The largest U.S. banks, including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup Inc., can borrow more cheaply in bond markets than smaller rivals, in part because of investor perceptions that they are too big to fail, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York researcher. The five largest banks pay on average 0.31 percentage point less on A-rated debt than their smaller peers, according to a paper released today by the Fed district bank based on data from 1985 until 2009.

 

“This insensitivity of financing costs to risk will encourage too-big-to-fail banks to take on greater risk,” Joao Santos, a vice president at the Fed bank, wrote in his paper. This “will drive the smaller banks that compete with them to also take on additional risk.

 

The study may reinforce efforts by lawmakers to eradicate the implicit federal subsidy by either breaking up the biggest banks or increasing capital requirements. Large banks have said their advantage has been overstated in studies, including a May 2012 report by the International Monetary Fund estimating their borrowing edge at 0.8 percentage point.

 

Santos’s report is one of 11 studies resulting from a year-long research project on the U.S. banking system involving about 20 New York Fed staff economists. Fed district banks in Dallas, Minneapolis and Richmond have also published research on too-big-to-fail, or the perception that large banks will be rescued by the government if they get into trouble.

 

The study also found that the largest banks enjoy a funding-cost advantage over large non-bank financial firms as well as the biggest non-financial corporations.

 

This finding suggests that “investors believe the largest banks are more likely to be rescued if they get into financial difficulty,” according to Santos. The five largest banks by assets are JPMorgan Chase & Co., Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc., Wells Fargo & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

 

The perception the banks are too big to fail may not be the only reason the big banks can borrow more cheaply, Santos said. “To the extent that the largest banks are better positioned to diversify risk because they offer more products and operate across more businesses (something not fully captured in their credit rating), this wedge could explain part of that difference in the cost of bond financing,” he said.

 

The New York Fed report says its findings are “pertinent to the ongoing debate on requiring bank-holding companies to raise part of their funding with long-term bonds, particularly if the regulatory changes that were introduced are unable to fully address the too-big-to-fail status of the largest banks.”

Even that wise sage of monetary policy, the Mr.Chairmanwoman, chimed in. Wrongly of course.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen said last month it may be premature to say regulators have eliminated the too-big-to-fail challenge.

 

“I’m not positive that we can declare, with confidence, that too-big-to-fail has ended until it’s tested in some way,” she testified to the Senate Banking Committee on Feb. 27.

Wait someone said it ended?  As for testing it, how about sending the market plunging by 1% or more? Surely with leverage being where it is, that should be sufficient for the Fed to need to bail out at least a few hundred of America's most insolvent banks.

Finally, for those who missed it, the sheer idiocy of the Fed spending millions in taxpayer funds to "find" whether TBTF banks are getting implicit taxpayer funds is something only economists are capable of.

The NY Fed's "research" paper on the topic can be found here, while the NY Fed's blog on this topic is here.

 

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Tue, 03/25/2014 - 12:40 | 4590462 CH1
CH1's picture

No shit!

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 12:42 | 4590478 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

The League of Obvious saves the day again!

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 12:49 | 4590509 Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture

Is only taking 5 year of economic catastrophe for figuring out? What is so hurry at Federal Reserve?

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 14:50 | 4591163 Four chan
Four chan's picture

i wish i could stamp duh! in letters 15 feet tall on this report.

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 15:01 | 4591218 icanhasbailout
icanhasbailout's picture

Any word on which direction they determined the sun can be expected to rise?

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 15:23 | 4591313 ArkansasAngie
ArkansasAngie's picture

How about we go ahead and break apart those To Big To Exist cesspools of currupt banksters.

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 15:54 | 4591447 eatthebanksters
eatthebanksters's picture

duh?!

 

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 12:48 | 4590507 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

I hope this has the effect of keeping Barry supporters away from my neighborhood.

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 13:13 | 4590623 Jlasoon
Jlasoon's picture

Unfortunately in the eyes of TPTB a nuke explosion is exactly what the doctor ordered. My guess is that some famous Nobel prize winner would welcome such a stimulus program. And I'm not talking about the president. Could you imagine the flag waving, omage to the state type brevado that would ensue? Heck the whole island could be rebuilt as a dedication to those who paid the ultimate sacrifice protecting and supporting billionaire bankers. I for one welcome this coming suicidal "freakshow" and look forward to "Marshall Plan" 2.0

GS must be saved at all cost and if human sacrifices are necessary to please the deity, well, so be it.  

 

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 15:03 | 4591227 icanhasbailout
icanhasbailout's picture

This is a major reason why I left New York, and why I won't go back even to visit. With my luck the false-flag event would occur while I was there. I've been expecting a nuclear false flag in NYC for quite some time now; it seems inevitable that TPTB will get desperate enough to do it as their control systems unravel in their hands.

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 12:42 | 4590479 Jayda1850
Jayda1850's picture

And these assholes are getting paid for this shit. THANK YOU CAPTAIN OBVIOUS!

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 12:48 | 4590500 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

So the sky is blue after all...

My God, roll the motherfucking guillotines already, nothing changes otherwise.

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 12:49 | 4590511 Meat Hammer
Meat Hammer's picture

And one's pee smells weird after eating asparagus.  Tell me something I don't know, like, why do we drive in the parkway but park in the driveway?

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 12:54 | 4590531 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Deep. Be careful: Socrates was executed for asking questions like that.

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 12:49 | 4590513 youngman
youngman's picture

Being that they can borrow for 0% and then park it back at the Fed for 3%..that to me is a pretty good advantage..I cant do that

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 12:53 | 4590526 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

And they claimed that negative interest rates wouldn't work!

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 12:58 | 4590552 negative rates
negative rates's picture

You mean you won't be able to, soon.......

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 12:51 | 4590521 drooley
drooley's picture

I propose splitting each TBTF bank into 1000 smaller banks, though I don't see why we need them at all, really.

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 12:59 | 4590557 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

You are being too pragmatic.  You have to think of a bank as a communal banana storehouse.  You put your extra bananas there, bananas that you've earned through growing, and the bank then figures out who in your neighborhood has fewer bananas than you, and doles them out accordingly via loaned bananas, which must be distributed before they go bad.  Bananas go bad!  Bananas go bad!  Think about it, the point that everyone misses is that: you just don't need that many bananas.  Bananas go bad!

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 13:08 | 4590610 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

Repothicated bananas never go bad!!!!  Cause they never existed!!!!

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 13:50 | 4590861 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

The point being, people need bananas, they really do.

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 15:04 | 4591231 icanhasbailout
icanhasbailout's picture

I propose splitting each TBTF bank executive into 1000 smaller bank executives.

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 12:53 | 4590528 Tenshin Headache
Tenshin Headache's picture

I guess that's today's "well, duh" moment.

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 12:54 | 4590534 Dre4dwolf
Dre4dwolf's picture

What people also fail to realize is, the bigger the bank, the bigger the ledger, the bigger the ledger, the more room for corruption, the more room for corruption the more counterfeit deposits.

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 12:59 | 4590556 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

So we reward criminal banksters with outlandish profits for no risk.

Now we reward bad banksters (is that redundant) with giving them even more special deals.

Sounds like time to remove some more middle class tax breaks to fund the top banksters

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 13:00 | 4590562 Son of Captain Nemo
Son of Captain Nemo's picture

What happens when TBTF goes off the cliff...

Georgy Porgy & Friends must be getting desperate with the inability to find the money to pay the loan guarantees they've promised and are resorting to staging train robberies of Russian citizens as another source....

http://www.eturbonews.com/43962/ukraine-radicals-rob-russia-moldova-trai...

 

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 13:01 | 4590568 Cow
Cow's picture

Brilliant!

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 13:02 | 4590570 Spungo
Spungo's picture

Moral hazard causes moral hazard?? Shocker.

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 13:05 | 4590587 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Get those monkeys off of our backs.

Send their CEO's to prisons.

Arrest Eric Holder for treason.

End the FED. 

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 13:39 | 4590784 camaro68ss
camaro68ss's picture

Wake up q99x2, your day dreaming again.....

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 13:08 | 4590604 1stepcloser
1stepcloser's picture

So that gun pointed at the american tax payer's head for a bailout, is now called a funding advantage...hmm i did not know that..

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 13:18 | 4590678 Jlasoon
Jlasoon's picture

It's your patriotic duty. Now kiss the ring. 

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 13:48 | 4590845 elwind45
elwind45's picture

Blank sheet of paper save 750 billllllion dollllars in normal font!

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 13:42 | 4590809 elwind45
elwind45's picture

The banks are being ask nicely to think America first and last and less anything in-between? There is trouble brewing in gotham

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 15:49 | 4591427 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

I'd laugh if it wasn't so serious. 

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 20:30 | 4592360 Midnight Rider
Midnight Rider's picture

This is why the "stress" tests were such a joke. These banks must be able to prove they are sufficiently captialized to stand completely on their own with ZERO assistance from the Federal Reserve or the Taxpayer. That means no ZIRP, QE, TARP, etc. etc. etc...

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