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Goodbye Polar Vortex; Hello Solar Vortex - El Nino Is Coming
Thirsty Californians are pinning their hopes that worried farmers in Australia are right. After months of the Polar Vortex dumping snow on the US east coast and drought on the west coast (and crushing the American Dream of an 'escape velocity' economy), The US Climate Prediction Center issued an El Nino watch bring hope of a big rain year for California, floods in South America, and dismal droughts in Southeast Asia. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology said an El Nino could occur during the southern hemisphere winter from May-July. Increased sea surface temperatures suggest an increasing chance of the global weather phenomenon and the great rotation from a Polar Vortex to a Solar Vortex.
Aussie Farmers are already struggling and this could be a major problem:
Climate models show an increased chance of a 2014 El Nino weather event, said Australia's bureau of meteorology, leading to possible droughts in Southeast Asia and Australia and floods in South America, which could hit key rice, wheat and sugar crops.
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) said an El Nino could occur during the southern hemisphere winter, May-July, with Australian cattle and grain farmers already struggling with drought which has cut production.
The last El Nino in 2009/10 was categorised weak to moderate. The most severe El Nino was in 1998 when freak weather killed more than 2,000 people and caused billions of dollars in damage to crops, infrastructure and mines in Australia and other parts of Asia.
"The latest climate model survey by the shows that the tropical Pacific is very likely to warm in the coming months, with most models showing sea surface temperatures reaching El Nino thresholds during the southern hemisphere winter," the BOM said in an emailed statement.
But Californians are exuberant at the possibility...
The U.S. Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño watch this month, citing a 52 percent chance of Pacific Ocean waters warming and creating - possibly - a wetter-than-average winter.
Historically, El Niño conditions have been associated with the state's biggest rain years, including the winters of 1997-98 and 1982-83, which brought fatal mudslides to the Santa Cruz Mountains and devastating surf to the Southern California coast. In 1997-98, San Francisco was pounded by a record 47.2 inches of rain.
Typically, El Niño brings drier weather to the western Pacific, in places such as Australia and Indonesia, and wetter weather to the Americas, he said.
The effects vary considerably with the strength of El Niño - and can differ from place to place.
For example, weak to moderate El Niño conditions have brought more rain to Southern California, while doing little for the northern part of the state. But a strong El Niño historically has increased rainfall across the entire state.
"If that gets locked in place, it can lead to storm after storm after storm," said John Monteverdi, a meteorology professor at San Francisco State University.
Meanwhile not everyone is exuberant as The India Times reports:
India's weather office is snarling at these forecasters and accusing them of conspiring to rattle the country's commodities and stock markets.
We are sure this will provide global meteorolgists and economists plenty of ammo for their hockey-stick recoveries to miss expectations...
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This shit is trivial.
I don't care what they call it as long as Wisconsin thaws out by July
Yahoo!
Rain for the golf courses!
Climate (THE WEATHER) Changes......yawwwwnnnn
https://www.google.com/search?sourceid=navclient&ie=UTF-8&rlz=1T4GFRE_enUS327US327&q=climate+definition
always has, always will
http://memegenerator.net/instance/47683348
I'm freakin' out, man!
Hooray for Fuckyoushima radiation + El Nino!
I am Chumbawamba.
thanks a lot, haarp
I want to be warm. It was fucking 28 here today.
I was living in San Jose (Kali...not Costa Rica) during the '97-'98 El Nino...after moving there in '95...and although I can't believe that state hasn't imploded yet, I will say the south Bay Area has damn near the perfect climate. Yeah, you usually get a decent amount of rain during the winter...but it's USUALLY broken up by some nice weather here and there...
However, all I remember from '97-'98 (besides getting hammered a few too many times) is a grey sky and a light, misty rain...pretty much every day...for what seemed like six months.
Yeah, definitely not "severe" weather by any standards...but the contrast in weather between that year and most of the other years I lived there was amazing.
But what about the unicorns shitting skittles vortex?
You can tell you're in one by the pink cotton candy clouds and lollipop raindrops.
Ya but then HARRP makes it change more and people die.
Just think what it will be able to do when/if it gets turned back on....
C'mon Knuk's, the golf courses always get water.
At least the kind Barry plays on.
It's the radioactive Kalifornia vegetables I'm cheering for.
@ Mr Pink:
Wisconsin residents confused by above freezing temperatures
Thanks! That was hilarious. A couple of nights ago I was walking to my car and heard screaming and it was a couple in a convertible Chrysler driving by....it was about 20 degrees
Here in Mid-Michigan a new record was set of 105 consecutive days with one inch or more of snow on the ground.
February averaged 9.2 degrees per day below average.
Through the 25th of March, it is averaging 10 degrees below normal.
At my house, my thermometer registered 78 days below zero.
And I wonder why all the brandy.....
This is all irrelevant. The Bureau of Lies and Shit, will just blame it all on weather, as always.
Or George Bush !
Ouch!
That is assuming you are not senile and your thermometer was in the freezer.
Funny. I was driving home from work one night last month. My windshield cracked for no apparent reason except it was 30 below outside. Not funny.
So this will be pushing all this Fukushima fallout shit exactly where!
SoCal, Chile, Peru, Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Mexico..........
No El Niño means LOTS of rain in N Peru and fewer hurricanes in the USA.
***
fonestar! Need your help here! No one can sole the QR question (0.05 BTC free prize)...:
http://tinyurl.com/9hlvzdx
Just give it to fonestar. He needs it to buy new underwear after bitcoin took a dump in all the ones he had.
I am Chumbawamba.
I was so looking forward to this. http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2013-05-03/we-begin
Did I miss it?
No, I'm conducting more hands-on field experiments so I can speak from experience. I owe it to my readers.
Thanks for reminding me there are people out there still interested. I have pre-trial tomorrow. After that, I'll see about getting back on top of this. The time is ripe for the rule of law to make a comeback.
I am Chumbawamba.
if you see fonestar give him this. https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=1eU2INYe4gk
Haha ron, the best part that ponestar will "fully" get is "stack em deep"one thing fonestar totally understands is stacking that shit deep....hahaha!
We love fewer hurricanes. My butt still hurts from the last insurance increase.
life is but a breath. vanity.
trivial indeed.
If only the UN could conrol the jet stream and Sun CME's. /sarc
Camper Van Beethoven - Pictures Of Matchstick
No cigars, but close with Chemtrails and HAARP
Duuuuuude, they're NEO-ConTrails....get with the program
Disagree.
Scalar wave weather modification technology. Noticed it during hurricane Ivan. Once we started exploited repeated causes of hurricane activity, the US government decommissioned the website. All backups are on a hard drive somewhere. It was just like clockwork. The red imaging scalar wave kept hitting Florida and New Orleans, the storm would hit days after. During that time, we were in Iraq. Military.com was openly bragging about the new weather technology they were using on Iraqis to combat the war on terror.
Uh, they do...
So, will this mean we can still blame the weather for all the damage that the Fed and the administration have done so far, or is that no longer an option? I'm so confused . . .
Great news. Glad to see organic farmers may catch a break.
... especially when the get more of that radioactive shit into their produce.
Too bad the wet season for Cali is about to end soon. There might be some gloom but no so much rain. Personally I think we're in for a dry hot summer, and it reminds me a lot of the early and mid 80's.
... while New York accelerates from snowpack to fried-eggs-on-sidewalk in six seconds.
No comfort for the wicked!
Raining here in Nor Cal for the entire week. Could stay wet until June.
Perhaps....based on norms. If climate is changing, how does normalization apply to <200 years of climate records?
Supporting data please?
I do recall a warm LA summers in '83 (US Festival), '84 (Orympics). Weather is otherwise June gloom..often extended to July and August.
Wasn't there a prediciton of a warmer less snowy winter in the east. They where thiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiissssssssssss
close.
Yes, well, you must realize just how unpredictable global warming... er, climate change is...
Yeah the climate change people even predicted that you couldn't trust their predictions because thats just how unpredictable climate change is. Or at least thats what their saying now that all their predictions didn't come true.
Care to list them for us?
Here is one from 1975 that worked better than just about anything predicted about anything back then:
http://www.skepticalscience.com/pics/Broecker_Comparison_Zoomed.png
from
http://www.skepticalscience.com/lessons-from-past-climate-predictions-br...
There is a pdf link there to the orginal paper from 1975 if you are so inclined....
cmon dude, you trot out that 1970s prediction and say LOOK! SEE! How far off is that!?!
and then stay mum about damn near every prediction since being worse, worse, and worse
yes, even a broken clock is right twice a day.
your 70s prediction is right by coincidence, and not by rigorous execution of fundamentals.
Look at what the cat dragged in...
Save your breath....
I still find it amusing you find no holes in the theories you subscribe to.
What I find interesting is you say there are holes, yet also find none.
Liberals in California will all act like turkeys when it begins to rain by going outside and looking up with their mouths open drowning themselves.
I'm going to add that to my prayers every night for a year.
Um ... hey dude like just fuck off okay?
One can only hope...from a somewhat Classical Liberal Kawlifornikayshun.
Yeah....global climate is trivial to humanity. LOL !!!
It's only been important for the most recent 10,000 years we've been pounding dirt.
We're like a 5 million year old species, right?
So yeah trivial.
/s
Well, to be fair, the Ice Age sucked pretty hard too.
Most of use would be living under Glacier Agassiz.
Hope you enjoyed that ice age pal. We're going to cross 500ppm CO2 real soon and probably hit 600ppm before we figure out that we're blown. Then we'll get to 700ppm just killing each other off properly, and 800ppm as the world's hardwood forests go up in flames. After that happens you're not seeing another ice age for maybe 50 million years or however long it takes single celled algae to bury all that atmospheric carbon again.
We're screwed because nobody understands geology.
There is greater likelyhood of a new ice age than carbon-induced warming.
The next ice age: www.youtube.com/watch?v=UuYTcnN7TQk
C(lie)mate:www.youtube.com/watch?v=2hOhq0vHfMI
Maybe all that extra CO2 will save us from weak sunspot activity.
zing, lol
hey flake, how's them sunspot # predictions? what? they're not part of your GCM? but wait, your GCM is correct and gives good results?
hahahahaha
Great strides in the treatment of delusional thinking have been made in the last couple of decades. You might consider taking advantage of them.
Look in the mirror buddy....
The Coug' shoots about as straight as anyone here...
We're screwed because of graft and corruption...
So long as you believe CO2 does what James Hansen thinks it does and not what Mother Nature has it do, you're going to keep believing our exhalations will doom us.
Good luck in getting the models to cooperate with the sun...
(in my circles we call that a fundamental flaw...and no amount of statistical manipulation will save you from a fundamental flaw in your argument, best you got when you have fundamental flaws is curve fitting and coincidence, conflating correlation and causation.)
Zzzzz....
Still clinging to fanciful self-serving bullshit....
stole my line about "climate scientists"
keep on rockin' without any expert help in statistics, pal...and you will keep rockin on saying all kinds of bullshit that can only be asserted through statistical fuckery...
...and then still be scratching your head wondering why the world doesnt do what the models say they will.
still havent gotten around that fact. not gonna, so long as you keep peddling the co2 scam.
It is SO not trivial. Indeed it is SO complicated that no one can predict what is happening or, what is going to happen.
Scientists are lauded as demi gods by the media however, I'm not convinced they can grasp the entire picture. In 100 years (if we're still here) the Scientists will look back on the present Scientists explanation of Climate Change like man dreaming of flight in the Stone Age
Good, now I can go waste a bunch of water, because surley with an el nino next rainy season will be a wet one!
It's a good thing all of those illegals Governor Moonbeam invited in don't use water!
meteoriligist predicting weather is like cnbc talking about where stocks are moving.
everyone knows cnbc doens't know. everyone knows it's a complex system which by definition CANNOT be predicted and yet the whole charade continues so long as there is money in the prediction game we call stocks.
as long as there is money to pay meteoroligists they will keep predicting wether. and please do not confound this information with those trying to study weather. predicting whether and studying it after the fact are two very different things.
one is simply empirical science the other is predicting complex systems' . it is like comparing balance sheet analaysis with predicting stocks.
yes you may be able to find fraud on a balance sheet by forensic analaysis or a near liquidity but this has nothing to do with the stock price at any given point in time. explain why gm stock price wasn't 0 for so many years until it was. the balance sheet doesn't have shit to do with that process of price motion.
similarly you can see the pattern of summer every year in historical records but it doesn't tell you what next summer will look like. let alone, any given day of next summer.
complex systems are a bitch. the ultimate complex system is life itself.
I hear you all .... BUT the weather has been nuts and this could be a real possibility. This is the last thing we need! Let hope they are wrong.
What is the value of studying the weather or a company, if you are not / can not make a prediction from that information?
You certainly can make good predictions...
Hell, the NHC has paid for itself many time over when it comes to dealing with hurricanes...
which is exponentially more than you can say for what climate models have done....
El Nino is bad for consumer confidence levels......
Yippee, sorry ZHers ---- all summer I get to keep using the excuse ---- It's the weather!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
lord edwyne rothschild weather weapon haarp tax incoming.
what a masonic in joke A
007 actually works for the bond villian.
We're in a Maunder Minimum style Solar peak. I don't think we'll get much of an El Nino, if any at all.
"Climate models show..."
Fuuuuuuuuuuck.
Doesn't anybody ever go back and fire the bastard who completely botched the last "climate model" programming? I mean WTF...you put error ridden data in and you're going to get stupid extrapolations of that data back out.
Global.
K...lets say if the Soviet Union collapsed and they quit manning Siberian weather stations what effect would that have on "global temperatures"?
Anyone? Bueller?
Localized.
How bout if some "brilliant" technocrat decides he's got some money left over in the budget he doesn't want to give back to DC and decides to pave the parking lot, instead of parking on the limerock and dragging dust & dirt into his office?
Brilliant!
Oh, the air temperature monitoring station is right next to the old dirt parking lot for the convenience of said office staff.
We've got a consensus of the brilliant.
Try harder, that shit is stale.
I knew someone would challenge...lol.
Here ya go, notice anything unusual for accurate air temps...six feet away from air conditioner exhaust?
http://gallery.surfacestations.org/main.php?g2_itemId=15465
How bout this one on an asphalt roof?
http://gallery.surfacestations.org/main.php?g2_itemId=12438
Data, you say?
Would you like to see the one by the parking lot? ;-)
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Well, not the one I remember but...here...same-same...
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/01/02/where-thermometers-go-to-die-how-not-to-measure-temperature-part-80/
At least they appear to be using a Stevenson screen. Just poorly located as you point out.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stevenson_screen
I guess the thing that bugs me the most is the "hysterics" take it all at face value, yet call us "deniers"...lol.
Deniers of what?
Doctored data and proven deception in "scientific circles" of academia & politico's wholly dependent on government grants, taxation & printing.
Yeah, there is a consensus all right.
The asshat college professor who wants to jail "climate change deniers" is a good indicator of how desperate they are getting. If they won't shut up, lock 'em up.
Just ask them if there data takes in the sun and solar radiation. If not then why not. The output of the sun varies, thankfully very very little or we would be totally f****'ed. They never say a damn word about the sun. So their data and everything else is totall bullshit.
If you fail to factor in the biggest f***ing thing in the universe (besides another sun-star) then you are a scientific fraud.
Freddie, stick to insulting Obama...
Because you know SFA about Climate Science and what is done and not done...
Er.. the IPCC just did a major reversal and announced that diverting food crops for biofuels was bad for the environment, and bad for people.
"
"Growing crops to make “green” biofuel harms the environment and drives up food prices, IPCC admits in dramatic U-turn
The United Nations will officially warn that growing crops to make “green” biofuel harms the environment and drives up food prices, The Telegraph can disclose. A leaked draft of a UN report condemns the widespread use of biofuels made from crops as a replacement for petrol and diesel. It says that biofuels, rather than combating the effects of global warming, could make them worse. The draft report represents a dramatic about-turn for the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Its previous assessment on climate change, in 2007, was widely condemned by environmentalists for giving the green light to large-scale biofuel production. The latest report instead puts pressure on world leaders to scrap policies promoting the use of biofuel for transport."
Of course, we stupid 'deniers', not being fully accredited climatologists and all (a noble and respected profession that's been around for, what, 30 years?), but only engineers and physicists, who have studied things since the beginning of history, had run the numbers (you know, Flak baby, that 'science' thing that you rail on about?), and said long and loud that biofuels were a net energy loss, disrupted food markets, and actually produced more atmospheric carbon than they reduced, but we were all shouted down by.., well, people like you, Flak baby, who called us 'deniers' and other names I won't repeat because we had the temerity to use REAL ACTUAL SCIENCE to question the pronouncements of the high priests of AGW.
Five more years, and they're going to admit that they were wrong about just about everything - coincidentally, about the time most of them are going to retire.
What has this to do with anything?
Many of us called out Al Gore when he touted Corn-to-ethanol as green in his movie...
So take your bullshit rhetoric and shove it up your ass....
As Coug' said...
That is tired old shit that just shows how intellectually bankrupt you are....
They got enough hockey sticks with human fingerprints on them to ice a fuckin' team...
List of reconstructions in order of publication[edit]- Lamb 1965 "The early medieval warm epoch and its sequel".
- Groveman & Landsberg 1979 "Simulated northern hemisphere temperature departures 1579-1880".
- Jacoby & D'Arrigo 1989 "Reconstructed Northern Hemisphere annual temperature since 1671 based on high-latitude tree-ring data from North America".
- Bradley & Jones 1993 "Little Ice Age summer temperature variations; their nature and relevance to recent global warming trends".
- Hughes & Diaz 1994 "Was there a ‘medieval warm period’, and if so, where and when?".
- Mann, Park & Bradley 1995 "Global interdecadal and century-scale climate oscillations during the past five centuries".
- Overpeck et al. 1997 "Arctic Environmental Change of the Last Four Centuries".
- Fisher 1997 "High resolution reconstructed Northern Hemisphere temperatures for the last few centuries: using regional average tree ring, ice core and historical annual time series".
Cited in IPCC TAR[edit]The IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR WG1) cited the following reconstructions supporting its conclusion that the 1990s was likely to have been the warmest Northern Hemisphere decade for 1,000 years:[2]
- Mann, Bradley & Hughes 1998 "Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries"
- Jones et al. 1998 "High-resolution palaeoclimatic records for the last millennium: interpretation, integration and comparison with General Circulation Model control-run temperatures".
- Pollack, Huang & Shen 1998 "Climate change record in subsurface temperatures: A global perspective".
- Mann, Bradley & Hughes 1999 "Northern hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: Inferences, uncertainties, and limitations".
- Briffa 2000 "Annual climate variability in the Holocene: interpreting the message of ancient trees".
- Crowley & Lowery 2000 "How Warm Was the Medieval Warm Period?".
Cited in NRC Report (North Report)[edit]North et al. 2006 highlighted six recent reconstructions, one of which was not cited in AR4:[3]
- Huang, Pollack & Shen 2000 "Temperature trends over the past five centuries reconstructed from borehole temperatures"
Cited in IPCC AR4[edit]The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4 WG1) cited the following reconstructions in support of its conclusion that the 20th century was likely to have been the warmest in the Northern Hemisphere for at least 1,300 years:[4]
- Jones et al. (1998), calibrated by Jones, Osborn & Briffa 2001 "The Evolution of Climate Over the Last Millennium".
- Mann, Bradley & Hughes (1999)
- Briffa (2000), calibrated by Briffa, Osborn & Schweingruber 2004 "Large-scale temperature inferences from tree rings: a review".
- Crowley & Lowery 2000 "How Warm Was the Medieval Warm Period?".
- Briffa et al. 2001 "Low-frequency temperature variations from a northern tree ring density network".
- Esper, Cook & Schweingruber 2002 "Low-Frequency Signals in Long Tree-Ring Chronologies for Reconstructing Past Temperature Variability",
- Mann & Jones 2003 "Global surface temperatures over the past two millennia."
- Pollack & Smerdon 2004 "Borehole climate reconstructions: Spatial structure and hemispheric averages".
- Oerlemans 2005 "Extracting a climate signal from 169 glacier records".
- Rutherford et al. 2005 "Proxy-based Northern Hemisphere surface temperature reconstructions: Sensitivity to method, predictor network, target season, and target domain".
- Moberg et al. 2005 "Highly variable Northern Hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low- and high-resolution proxy data".
- D'Arrigo, Wilson & Jacoby 2006 "On the long-term context for late twentieth century warming".
- Osborn & Briffa 2006 "The spatial extent of 20th-century warmth in the context of the past 1200 years".
- Hegerl et al. 2006 "Climate sensitivity constrained by temperature reconstructions over the past seven centuries".
Subsequent reconstructions[edit]recalibrated by Cook, Esper & D'Arrigo 2004 "Extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere land temperature variability over the past 1000 years".
So you produce more tired old shit as a counterpoint?
Climate change = global tax system/revenue enhancement for those in 'the club'
Your post is a text book case of the fallacy:
argumentum ad consequentiam
The science doesn't give a rats ass whether you like the possible implications...
So why don't you figure out a better way to deal with the consequences then?
Your post is a text book case of the fallacy:
argumentum ad vericundiam
so what's your point?
Given tht you rely on so many classic argumentative fallacies in willful ignorance (at best), I am not surprised that you fail to grasp what the problem is...
lol...the problem is the models have fundamental flaws.
but apparently that isnt a problem for you, who cares about the veracity of predictions, a wiggle on a graph will cross that datapoint sooner or later, LOOK, I'm RIGHT! its getting old, flake.
Detached, 25 years ago, it was said it took a "supercomputer" 100 hours and still nobody agreed with the results anyway. And 25 years ago they grumbled about carbon taxes, and called for more research. Here today the same old arguments. Meanwhile emissions, data, and computer power have risen...
Remember the .joke about the guy who was falling from the skyscraper and someone asked him "how's it going?"
25 years ago, their assumptions were wrong, and they still cling to much of them today. The essence of GIGO means that it doesnt matter how much computing power you have, if the equations that it crunches have fundamental flaws, then they have pretty much no predictive capability.
Which is why Flake keeps having to pull out that dusty "prediction" from the 70s and claim predictive power, when what we witness is the coincidental matching of a datapoint 30-40 years later. Meanwhile, the vast majority of predictions made have been wildly off base, calling for changes that we dont even come close to seeing. I mean you cant say Hansen's low prediction from 20 years ago is valid even though its not ridiculously far off, because the fundamentals of how he got there are bad. Iow, coincidence.
You cant even call AGW accident at this point though, it has been blatant statistical manipulation for quite some time now - and the fact that there is some vaguely coherent mathematical construct that is fine tuned enough to be able to hit a few datapoints seems to be plenty enough for those who have had the blanket of indoctrination pulled over their eyes and stuffed in their ears.
Its quite allright that some models hit some data points and others hit other datapoints - average 'em out and they "hit 'em all decently well"...LMFAO...unreal that people believe this shit!
---------------
This made me think of Flake when I read it:
http://www.futilitycloset.com/2014/03/24/podcast-episode-2/
As skywatchers prepared for the return of Halley’s comet in 1910, they heard some alarming scientific predictions: Poisonous gases in the comet’s tail might “snuff out all life on the planet,” “leaving the burnt and drenched Earth no other atmosphere than the nitrogen now present in the air.” How should a responsible citizen evaluate a dire prediction by a minority of experts? In this week’s episode of the Futility Closet podcast, we explore the Halley’s hysteria, remember the alarming predictions made for Y2K, and recall a forgotten novella in which Arthur Conan Doyle imagined a dead Earth fumigated by cosmic ether.
----------------
Clearly, the way to deal with that is to deny that there are different fields of study, to claim that there are but a select few who are experts in this One field, and anyone who disagrees with that must certainly not be in expert in the One Field.
Detached, some 100 years ago the theory was that CO2 is a greenhouse gas, correct? Other GHGs have been identified, correct? Human activity pumps these into the atmosphere yes? Scientific predictions from your 1910 Haley's Comet example are equivalent to computer assisted scientific predictions of the late 20th/early21st century? Really? Isn't that like saying a horse & buggy is like a McLaren F! because they are both modes of transportation? Our computer modelling may not be anything but amusing to scientists 50 years from now but for now it's what we have...
Computers predictive powers are limited, they aren't crystal ball magic. Seems like many will not accept ANYTHING until they are 100% right decade after decade after decade, as you seem to be anxious for ALL computer modeling to be discounted to zero. Was it not computer models that not too long ago predicted that Arctic summer ice extent would approach zero much closer to the LATE 2000s? To me it is looking more and more like the models, obviously setup and run by humans (your "blatant statistical manipulation") are too "conservative" as is the nature of scientific work. You focus on the climate computer models appears to me as a red herring to ignore everything else, actual observed empirical data, so you can argue that AGW is a fraud. Do you disagree with the IPCC AR5 WG1 consensus on AGW? Yes or no?
It's not all about computer models and we don't have forever to PROVE the predictions were right. "Hay look! It is +4C, let's go!"
thanks for the reply.
Edit: by late 2000's I meant late 21st century ie:2070-2080
-every single justification for "climate action" is based upon models
-look up the definition of logarithm
-apparently you missed the humor about haley's comet
-professional statisticians laugh at the stats used to "prove" agw
-no professional statisticians on board WHATSOEVER for the AGW side
-almost all of the IPCC's stuff is skewed, look at their mission statment for chrissakes, to find and prove human induced warming
-when you start a line at a low point and end at a high point, you get a steeper curve, its been exploited so many times by the AGW crowd it aint even funny
-artic sea ice at 0? where? by the end of the century? and a model with very fundamental flaws told us that? please excuse me for not being all that impressed.
Press release for AR5 WG2 is on Monday 9:00am Yokohama time. Tell all your friends! Have a nice weekend! Oh wait, I for got a ZHr told me it's almost all skewed, ya, so move along nothing to see there.
Press Release: IPCC Working Group I publishes full report
Geneva, 30.1.14 - Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, human influence on the climate system is clear, and limiting climate change will require substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions. These are the key conclusions from an assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that is released today in its full and finalized form. [Full press release - Audio Recording ]
"The atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide have increased to levels unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years. Carbon dioxide concentrations have increased by 40% since pre-industrial times, primarily from fossil fuel emissions and secondarily from net land use change emissions. The ocean has absorbed about 30% of the emitted anthropogenic carbon dioxide, causing ocean acidification " AR5 WG1(don't worry folks, we're just a bunch of self-serving pretend scientists sent by the cabal to scare you into agreeing to a NWO carbon tax)
Detached from climate science it appears. Amused by baffle-gabbing people. See ya!
I'm getting a vision, yes, a climate conference in Paris, it's coming clear yes, I predict with my computer it's December 2015 : )
Are you referring to the UN 6% tax that was being proposed 25 years ago ? The one 'the club' the all mighty seeing eye club has failed to impose? losing out on globalGDP x 6% x 25 years? Or are you referring to the carbon tax called for by Al Gore, the guy the almighty club didn't make POTUS?
Different names, same purpose.
sorry, Disenchanted, same name. carbon tax. So those who think that AGW is merely a scam to impose a tax also usually bemoan TPTB and complain about the corrupt United Nations and BITCH about Al Gore, then pat themselves on the back how warriors such as themselves have staved off the dreaded carbon tax for 25 years! Winning!!!? The carbon tax never happened because there was no consensus on whether AGW was real or not, and while we were busy arguing, the 1% robbed the 99% blind.
While the 1% laughed all the way to the bank the science kept coming in. The 1% aren't laughing anymore and TPTB have lost control of the situation. This will get ugly. Go ahead and keep up the good fight though just keep in mind that win or lose it probably won't make a bit of difference at this point.
Now what the hell is that Flak?
Venting a veritable vortex of vacuous verbiage...lol...is no way to win over the masses hearts & minds...especially when its collected from the very same faulty data.
Sooo, (in your opinion) what is your proposal to "fix" this calamity of people breathing, trees dying, cows & woodland creatures farting etc. you believe in so fervently?
A carbon tax, no doubt. Paid for by the very same people who can least afford to buy the offsets for them emitting it.
Tell ya what, when "scientists" & government officials stop flying off to Cancun & Bali (injecting more carbon into the atmosphere than I ever will) to rend their clothes & gnash their teeth over it (while dining on shrimp cocktail & filet mignon) maybe I'll take it serious.
Besides, whenever they set up one of these junkets to tropical locales, the temperature plunges by at least 20 degrees and returns to normal after they leave.
Who said God doesn't have a sense of humor ;-)
Quit with the bullshit sophistries and rhetoric...
Here is my rhetoric...
A 10,000 year temperature reconstruction
http://www.skepticalscience.com/graphics.php?g=88
and this
800,000 years of C02 along side the history of H. Sapiens
http://www.skepticalscience.com/graphics.php?g=95
-----------
Clearly a revenue neutral carbon tax is beyond your mental grasp...
Your first graph is at variance with your second...if humans are converting solid carbon into gas (and we do) to cause "global warming" trapping gas (the theory) the temperature shouldn't be steadily sloping downward (your first graph) it should be rising...disregard the bogus hockey stick red "projection" unless photosyntesis has stopped, which it hasn't.
Clearly, you lobbying for an additional tax, to be imposed on top of all others, points to some weird statist-Keynesian economic logic that implies governments can take more from the private sector (accruing a benefit to it) without any deleterious effect from whence it came AND the firm belief that only government is the best repository for those funds...which apparently appeared out of carbon filled hot air...lol.
If you're on some sort of "carbon guilt trip", just cut a check to the IRS voluntarily from your own funds and leave us out of it.
You clearly have no idea what is going on do you with those figures, do you?
We didn't start dumping C02 into atmosphere until the very end in about 1850. The Earth was cooling down as it was expected to after the Holocene Optimum....
As for your empty rhetoric about statism, save it for the clowns you enjoy having your usual circle jerk with...
and you dont get why we laugh at you on the whole curve fitting thing
Zzzz...
Once again, a day late and an idea short...
Its ok, I know you've been sleeping, and I dont expect you to wake up until we're at 750ppm and the world STILL isnt doing what these farcical models say it will do.
Except it's doing very much what the models say which makes you look like an idiot for saying otherwise.
You supplied Sarah's dumbass graphs, not me. And I rarely click on your links simply because I don't trust you, just so you know.
Wood, oil & coal have been burned for thousands of years and Lake Michigan froze the fuck over for the first time in a hundred years this winter.
Turning to a completely different hemisphere, some bozo's in your "climate hysteria support group" tried to recreate a trip made to Antarctica 100yrs ago (a hundred years ago in a wooden ship, I might add) to prove some stupid point...with a modern steel ship and got completely stuck...in ice, Flak...same time of year as a hundred years ago. You might have heard about that, they were made a laughing stock (much like Mann, Gore, Jones, Briffa, Hansen etal) at a cost millions of dollars and the risk of others lives.
Because they're grifters and useful idiots.
And the so-called "neutral tax question"...which you attempt to avoid. Its not neutral tax at all. Its an indirect tax imposed on the final cost of any product PAID BY THE END USER-THE CONSUMER. Imposed by governments through law & regulation. There is no such thing as a neutral tax or there is no reason to impose it on people.
Period...end of story.
So you are a technocrat empowering statist and a socialist, as I've said all along.
What branch of government do you work for?
Zzzz....
Bullshit, anecdotes, and loaded rhetoric...
Tell it to someone that cares...
because you've got to remember, no expernse is too great to save our planet - Donate Now!
http://theweek.com/article/index/255504/why-climate-change-is-inevitable
The the more people who say global warming is a hoax and burn more to prove they are right, the sooner we will all be mass-murdered.
Mebbe no El Nino until 2015?
Summarising, the next El Ninos may be from mid July 2015 until into 2016, and then sometime around 2020. The latter coincides with an expected Australian drought beginning in 2019, the result of 60 years ahead from 1958-68 which was Australia's longest drought. 60 years is the Jupiter-Saturn return. The El Ninos in that period were 1957-58 and 1965-66 which were also at or near to the peak years of sunspot cycles #19 and #20.
We are currently in a Solar Maximum and coming up to Minimum lunar declination. Closer moons July through September will bring stronger wind systems around equinoxes, the September equinox coinciding with lunar equinox and new moon, although tides will not be as high then as at the start of both this February and March.
Northland may not receive monthly above average rain again until July.
and oh yeah, it's not due to the temperatures or C02
http://jonova.s3.amazonaws.com/graphs/lappi/gisp-last-10000-new.png
You doing astrology or climate science?
As for your bullshit plot based on GISP2 data, do you remember this from an earlier thread:
==========
Why don;t you remind us of what "Present" means in GISP2 data?
Are you ignorant or just trying to lie to us? Seriously, this is the kind of bullshit that gives used car salesmen a bad name...
Since our friend is not going to be forthright, I'll tell you, 1855....
Yes, 158 years ago...
And it could be as long as 478 years ago if it is the straight GISP2 data
And what has happened in Greenland since then
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2009JCLI2816.1
Since that is behind a paywall some nice people made a figure that is worth 1,000 words,
http://hot-topic.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/GRIPtempBoxlarge.png
Now, if you combine that information with the plot you linked you get this
http://hot-topic.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/GISP210k480.png
----
Your plot is tired old bullshit that deniers peddle out either to fool newbies or just to make themselves feel better...
The pot calls the kettle black.
I think it may lie in the Saturn-Uranus return 42. Clearly more research is required. great to see you back return U 42 U R ! oh Yeah
So basically, illustrated in image #2 we see a giant (warm) penis draped across the northern US/Canada and touching down in Alaska.
Better than a cold Dick, I suppose.
We need a 1 time 70% wealth tax to stop the jet streams.
Don't piss down my back and tell me it's raining.
Show me the precipitation.
While asking for showing stuff, show me some tittys
Some days it's cold.
Some days it's hot.
Hopefully the two don't get so out of whack that crops fail.
Other than that, it's not a big deal.
The Polar Vortex - formerly known as Winter.
hoping is what the religiously infected do. it's not a solution to imminent or in-your-face problems.
take a look at the big picture instead of your own existence.
it'll do you some good.
Name that Crisis, all your crisis are our market rally....Keep them coming.
What the fuck are they talking about? SE Australia has just had one of the hottest, driest summers on record. Only in the last couple of weeks has there been any significant rain.
Welcome to the new normal, La nina, el nino either way no rain for you!
Fuck the climate models and anyone who supports their tax ans slave policies
Well, here in Texas we are hoping that we get some rain. Luckily I still have enough hay to last three more months if I ration it out. Still not much grass and it was a drier than normal winter....
Let's throw money at it. That will fix everything
Let's rain money. That will fix everything
I’ll help out my fellow ZH posters. Stop watching the weatherman and focus on the bigger picture. Those meteorology fucking hacks will be unemployed before long.
Larry David vs. The Weatherman <- Humor
Suspicious0bservers <- bigger picture
Enjoy!
The ice cube effect is in full swing... when the ice is gone we are all in deep, deep trouble and the gpvernment will have even more justification to put that spy camera in the bottom of your toilet.
Won't the bottom of the toilet be where the top of the toilet is at that point?.... Just sayin.
That would actually be a perfect perspective from which to express my gratitude for all this comforting security.
Long ExLax.
They, as in the boogyman, watch your shit do they not? Isn't that the paranoid line CNN has been feeding everyone? Perhap it's the prozac in my tap water?
Anyone wanting to experiment put a Ice cube in a cup of room temperature water on a hot day with a Thermometer and watch the down up effect, or vector curve, and then think of earth.
If you believe what the global warming folks have been saying about the fact that global temps haven't been rising the last few years because the oceans have been absorbing the heat then this El Nino could be a whopper.
key concept of that sentence, "if you believe what the agw indoctrinated say"
just because trenberrth lost somme heat because his equations are shoddy and he doesnt knnow where that heat went,
YEAH! that means its just magically trapped down there somewhere, only...it skipped a layer on the way down, and uh...yeah, once we get an el nino, its all going to come RUSHING OUT!!!
hahahahaha
Send more money to Al "Green Alright" Gore. He'll fix it.
/sarc
If we just RFID tag the polar bears, a new UN study can recreate the Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX) Ponzi scam. We need to understand where these buggers migrate and tax them when they cross artic glacier borders /LOL
http://www.discoverthenetworks.org/printgroupProfile.asp?grpid=7526
As long as the FED hasn't had any input this scenario may play out.
Well things are setting up for an El Nino, but it is by no means a done deal...
A moderately strong one will, however, will very likely result in record global temperatures in 2015...
List of hottest months in the GISS temperature record (1951-1980 baseline)
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
All of the these months except 2002 are tied to El Nino events as seen from page 23 of
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_ev...
Jan 1998 is associated with the most intenese El Nino on record (the one that is disingenuously cherry picked by fools and liars to claim warming stopped back then....
with the way the GISS black box works, it'd be pretty much guaranteed, weak el nino, strong el nino, no el nino
....and shhhhh.....dont tell anyone that those values you just posted are simply comparisons of real world data vs the arbitrary baseline value for where things "should be" (were agw correct)...so once again you're basically presenting a false analysis.
oh hey, that doesnt look good enough *changes start of considered datapoints to a colder time to steepen the appearance of the curve*