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New Home Sales Drop To Lowest Since October, Median Home Price Below Year Ago Levels

Tyler Durden's picture




 

It was only a matter of time before, as we said last month, January's reported surge in New Home Sales soared by 10% to 468K (well above the 400K then expected) would be revised lower. This just happened, when moments ago the Census Bureau lowered the January number from 468K to 455K. But what's worse is that last month's seasonally abnormal print was obviously an aberration due to the law of small numbers (explained here in detail), February's print was even worse, printing at 440K, below the 445K expected, and the lowest monthly print since September. Then again looking at the chart below shows why 20K houses up or down is absolutely meaningless in the grand scheme of things, as New Home Sales is the one category that resolutely refuses to bounce from the Depression lows.

 

In terms of geographic breakdown, there were an actual (unadjusted, non-annualized) sales by region as follows:

  • Northeast: 2K
  • Midwest: 5K
  • South: 20K
  • West: 8K

Finally, the median home price, after rising aggressively in 2013, has continue to decline in recent months: just as one would expect when the fourth dead cat bounce in the post-depression housing market hits the zenith of its bounce.

 

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Tue, 03/25/2014 - 10:21 | 4589850 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Damn weather! I wish it would just go away.

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 10:54 | 4589966 WayBehind
WayBehind's picture

No kidding! Who wants to drive through a pile of that white shit to buy some stupid house.

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 15:08 | 4591246 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

BTFDump!

Know your place, pay your property taxes, now shut your face!

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 10:25 | 4589870 Hohum
Hohum's picture

No worries, the weather for February will be revised better and that will raise sales.

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 11:02 | 4589994 BlindMonkey
BlindMonkey's picture

Novel idea. You work for .gov don't you? /s

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 10:25 | 4589871 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

battle of the bulge: leaving their tanks and walking back to germany

battle of the bubble: packing their hammers and driving back to mexico

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 10:28 | 4589892 slightlyskeptical
slightlyskeptical's picture

Someone forgot to tell the consumers that their houses actually fell in price. I would bet the average man on the street thinks his house went up 30% over the last year.

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 10:28 | 4589896 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Homes are too risky at these prices. If they go down just a little you lose a bundle.

I'll stick to daytrading crypto-currencies.

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 10:34 | 4589918 brown_hornet
brown_hornet's picture

Anecdotal alert...Have just contracted to tear down an old junk and build a 2400 sq ft Mcmansion in suburbs west of the Windy city.

Hope it sells when we are done

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 10:38 | 4589928 greatbeard
greatbeard's picture

>> 2400 sq ft Mcmansion

2,400 sq ft mcmansion? 2,400 sq ft is barely a decent front porch on a real mcmanion.  pull out all the stops.

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 10:34 | 4589919 FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

I am wondering whether the weather would wither the worth?

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 10:37 | 4589926 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

BUY BILLY RAY...BUY GOD DAMN IT!!!

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 10:56 | 4589974 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Tyler, this is the more definitive chart of new home sales:

 

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=7iv

That's 1960s levels, or indeed 1950s levels, with 50 million more people in the population.

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 11:08 | 4590020 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Some great chart porn, there, and a nice reality check. 

The multifamily (read section 8) housing is simply instant slum.

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 10:43 | 4589942 Thalamus
Thalamus's picture

What will happen if 30 yr rates get back to the 8%+ range?  That will be a bloodbath in housing prices.  What will happen if there's a bloodbath in housing prices--do banks suffer?  I think the financial system is toast if rates rise much from here and FASB can't sell its soul twice to save it.  

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 10:45 | 4589949 El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

Send in the Algos to run up those home prices for fuks sake, whats amatter with you guys.

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 10:56 | 4589976 new game
new game's picture

nice to see an overlay of interest rates on that chart. keep in mind builders are buying down rates to get people in with some of home sale margin (just like new auto financing)...

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 10:53 | 4589958 El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

The stock market crash will keep rates low for a few more years. Bonds are about to rip higher as theMarket goes red and stays red for a real "Correction". Flight to the "Safety" of the other papers.

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 10:53 | 4589962 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

No worries. Bankersd are already working on those free houses agian, the zero-down, no job verification, breath into the mirror subprime mortgages.

That'll solve it.

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 11:06 | 4590010 BlindMonkey
BlindMonkey's picture

Nothing looks as attractive to get you out of a jam than moar fraud.

Long spatulas for when the flying banker craze reaches down to homeowners.

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 12:23 | 4590411 pelican
pelican's picture

My house dropped100k value in 6 months back in 2008.  It never came back.  However, don't worry, NY and DC are doing great.  The coke, hookers and partying continues...

 

 

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 11:11 | 4590032 WMM II
WMM II's picture

looks like a clear rising trend in median home prices since 2010....

 

 

:)

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 11:17 | 4590069 starman
starman's picture

The frenzy is over and anytime soon panic will ensue. 

Ps; your house never really worth more its just cost more!

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 11:29 | 4590138 orangedrinkandchips
orangedrinkandchips's picture

who wants a house WHEN THE FUCKING SQUIRRELS  EAT A HOLE IN YOUR ROOF THE SIZE OF A SOCCER BALL?

 

Im not shitting....im getting a .22 and going to unload.

 

fucking rats.....

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 11:40 | 4590186 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

The .22 is a bad idea.  If it's a she rat and there are little ones in your attic, you are setting up for godawful stink.  You have to pay an exterminator to come deal. 

And you can't just let it alone.  They are rodents.  Their teeth never stop growing, so they must gnaw.  That's often wires.  They can burn your house down.

And when they do insurance won't cover it.  Check your policy.  They all exclude damage by rodents.

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 12:25 | 4590417 pelican
pelican's picture

racoons too.... I had to use a huge box of rat poison to get rid of them.

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 11:47 | 4590232 Spungo
Spungo's picture

We'd have more new home sales if martians nuked half of our cities.

Tue, 03/25/2014 - 12:37 | 4590455 LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

"New Home Sales is the one category that resolutely refuses to bounce from the Depression lows". So that explains the levitation of the new home builders. Kept wondering what was behind that...

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