The Uncomfortable Truth (In 2 Charts)

Tyler Durden's picture

Presented with little comment aside to ask... if 'weather' can do this much damage to the US economy and 'faith' in the wealth effect-building benefits of the US equity market are this weak, then there are a few uncomfortable truths about to punch some talking heads in the mouth...

Q1 GDP estimates are down 30% in the last 2 months... that is a 30% plunge in the US economy due to "weather" in Winter... (and even hopes for the full year are starting to be curtailed)


And the wealth-building benefits of a Fed-promoted US equity market appear to be falling on deafer and deafer ears since the mid-Feb EM crisis lows... as money flow - comparable to breadth - collapses...


So people have lost faith in the economic recovery and are losing faith in the financial recovery... what next? The blasphemy of dobting the Fed's omnipotence?

And for those that miss it...


Charts: Bloomberg

h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer

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drink or die's picture

Broccoli man has been correct  5 years running!

cougar_w's picture

BTFD! Boo-yah!

I remember it like it was yesterday, man.

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Completely and shamelessly O/T here (on the other hand, someone is going to win 0.05 Bitcoin for solving the question) is my article on other photos and comments while we have been here in Peru.

What, do you think I just sat around and counted bearings and read mining journals all day?

-- Peruvians DO NOT want (94%) a "Chavista" economy

-- surfer dudes in the Peruvan Pacific

-- The Engineer/ Director of the mining journal with a couple of interesting ads

-- more proof that Peru is proud to be Peru

-- Cousins, including two darlin´lil things!

-- CHINA'S most popular pickup truck, the Wingle!

and the Contest Question (0.05 BTC prize, MUST be first Comment at my blog):

-- WHAT is so unusual about the QC Code?



Clycntct's picture

Well you handicapped the event.

"and the Contest Question (0.05 BTC prize, MUST be first Comment at my blog):

My answer It is mathematically limited.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Remember the good old days of 2009-2010 when we talked about the Fed's last bullet being right around the corner? How many people expected this insanity to last this long?


How many expect it to go even longer?

Oldwood's picture

If there is anything infinite in this world, it is insanity.

aVileRat's picture

Something usually bad happens when the rug is pulled out. 1935 and Japan 2005 both prove economics built on added leverage + buybacks do not have the strength to self select anymore. And back on the stimulus it goes, until wealth is consolidated for new growth sector expansion or wages fall in service/manufacturing to a point where domestic hiring in the capital growth sectors make sense. Onshore oil can not be expected to prop up an entire country the size of the USA. Canada or Saudi Arabia, yes, but the USA has too much dead weight loss.

Well into the "value" phase now of the bull market.

El Vaquero's picture

I did not expect it to last this long back then, but I also failed to realize that a lot of the QE was just sitting in an interest bearing account over at the Fed.  I've since had to re-evaluate my views.  I've also felt that Obamacare would crash things if it were put into full effect, but that has been unilaterally postponed by the teleprompter-in-chief.  On that, I'm not surprised.


My gut feeling is that the end is getting close, but gut feelings are no substitute for hard facts and data.  We'll see.

Uber Vandal's picture

I would trust my gut feeling over "hard facts and data" for one just does not know how much of the "hard facts and data" resembles reality anymore.

Why yes, 1+1 does equal 11. Whatever you say, we can adjust that cell in the spreadsheet to reflect that, no problem.


TheReplacement's picture

11 is wrong.  It is actually 10 that does equal two, or 1+1, in binary.

cougar_w's picture

Yeah the good ol' days:

Cougar_w: Thu, 05/24/2012 - 17:18

Hope you didn't put much money on that bet, Dawg. These fuckers are going to print hard enough to wake the dead. They'll print like mo'fos, print like mad men, print like fly pimps. Print until their eyes bleed.

They will print via the swaps, via bank bailouts and mergers, via fixed Treasury yields, via real honest-to-God negative interest rates, via loans to banks on no collateral, via payroll tax reductions, and in the end via actual fiat paper instruments which they might very well drop in bails from actual mutherfucking helicopters.

They will not give two figs what anyone thinks.

Here is why.

Because this is the Goddamned end of it my friend. There is no accounting beyond this point. There will be no history of it. No one to take notes of rates of exchange, or of the graft and violence, nobody to worry about the deficit or the GDP or the national debt of any nation large or small under the blazing Goddamned sun.

End. Of. It. Does anyone bitch about how Rome totally debased their coinage at the end? Hell no. But whoever did it had enough to hand and grabbed some land with a nice vineyard and sat back and waited for the Middle Ages to start 700 years further on.

And that's what a singularity is about. Anything that passes through is striped of all meaning. Nothing we think is important now will remain so beyond the event horizon. Nobody will remember, nobody will write about it, nobody will be held to any standard. Ever for evar.

So yeah, they'll print like the mad crazed terrorists they are. Because they have nothing to lose, and maybe something to gain. Maybe a dollar. Maybe a day. Maybe a slim chance to escape with some of the loot. Whatever the fuck advantage they see in it, for themselves and their elite crap wanking buddies, they will full-on-full-time-fucking do it to advantage.

Watch for it, Dawg. It's totally on this time, on like Donkey Kong. And when the dust is settled in a generation hence it's going to have become  another unbelievable episode among the ages of men.

Oldwood's picture

Rings like a bell in my ears.

Terp's picture

I actually remember reading that post. Spot on.

I expected the illusion to vanish back in 2011, little did I know how long they would be able to drag on...

Still amazes me...2014 and here we are, still waiting for the other shoe to drop.

cossack55's picture

True, but it energized many folks to start buying boatloads of lead and brass, i.e., .22WMR @ $7.00/50 now $20

                      .22 LR  @ $12.00/600  now $22.00 (if you can find any)


So all is still good.

Zigs's picture

There's more ways to measure quality of life and abundance than dollars and cents.  We've already experienced tremendous collapse socially and economically because of misguided governement and fiscal policy.   Money can't and won't fix it, either.

HaroldWang's picture

I've been around here the entire time and a bit before. I remember arguing with people on this forum to buy since the Fed had everyone's back. It amazed me that people would actually post things about how they didn't care to make money, it's all a fraud, etc. I was shocked. Yes, it was/is a fraud! So what? You could make a lot of money.

Well here we are five years later and it seems like it can go on for a long, long time. Since then, EU figured out how to play, followed by Japan, followed by China. Hell, China misses PMI and is contracting and its market rallies - just like here! 

If everyone's playing the game, and they are, we're years away from the nonsense ending.

Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

Cognitive Dissonace is insanity!  Sorry to break it to you. ;)

goBackToSleep's picture

Just pay attention to the lyrics. Nevermind the somewhat pleasant key of the song.

ebworthen's picture

Mmm...cotton candy!

Oldwood's picture

This ain't tough! Just get some new estimators to get those projections back up to where they should be. Hopefully we don't need to suicide any of them.

HardlyZero's picture

or their predecessors ?   but then they would not be 'deceased'.   Here we go...truth clogging up the system.

Oldwood's picture

Surely, if we can defeat the evil in this world by simply laying down our weapons and holding hands while singing joyous praise to our benevolent leaders, then we can also create great wealth and prosperity in our lives by simply...buying the fucking dip goddamnit!

cougar_w's picture

Mainlining heroin is like bad for you dude.

Oldwood's picture

We all know that and yet it comes as such a surprise in the end.

Ban KKiller's picture

...and don't call me Shirley.

Silver dip!

TheReplacement's picture

That is a point that nobody seems to make.  The mantra of BTFD is correct.  What, you wanna buy the high instead?  Silver is in a major dip.  It is a good time to buy it. 

Clycntct's picture

And I thought you were gonna say "create great wealth and prosperity in our lives by simply... shooting the mfkers in the head and taking what we need.

Ban KKiller's picture

Watch out, summer follows spring. Black swans like calm deep water with shallow banks full of minnows. 

Buy the dip until you run out of hopium. Excellent plan for the hedge funds. What, they are down for the year? No cocaine bonus this quarter!



cougar_w's picture

Okay third time today, I promise I'm done now:

Uncomfortable with the truth. Get it? See, I have an excuse, it's on-topic 4 reelz. Tyler practically made me do it.

Please don't kill me.

surf0766's picture

I have been out of the market since 2002. I have enjoyed every moment.

angryBuddhist's picture

But, but, but . . . didn't you read? The coming El Niño is going to jumpstart the economy for real this time and catapult us to escape velocity. We're all saved!

fzrkid's picture

duh ZH when the weather warms up everything that went down in price will come back up..

starman's picture

There's always a END, will it be a happy one?