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Gold Drops To 6-Week Lows, Back Under $1,300
Gold prices are down 6.6% from the post-Crimea referendum highs mid-March (but remain up 9% in 2014). For the 3rd day in a row, precious metals have come under sudden selling pressure and this morning's has pushed Silver comfortably back below $20 and gold now back under $1,300. Notably copper prices are also fading on the heels of Chinese weakness overnight.
3rd day in a row of monkey-hammering...
Clearly there is a "war" premium supposedly coming out of PMs but we suspect this pressure is also coming from Chinese financing deals as we noted previously
Copper is also falling today...
Charts: Bloomberg
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But....but....but.....the golden cross!!!!
Plated tungsten
Silver under 20. BUY BUY BUY!
Gonna have to talk to the wifey about those earmarked tax refund dollars.
WAHOO! BTFD!
WAHOO! BTFD!
Fuck that. I'm sorry for you folks that missed the wave but it's over. You should have been paying attention to this site four years ago, I thankfully got out at $1650. The printing press wins.Yup
No forward inflation expectations, mean no inflation hedges, which means no gold marginal buy in PAPER market.
lol for those who were long Citigroup.
Bitcoin's holding it's own. IRS hatin' and all.
Yes, more hate from IRS (and others) should offer a hint as to the significance and importance of the currency.
its not the printing press thats winning... its the military backing up the paper thats coming out of it. ... and now, finally, our ability to continue to bomb the dollars value higher is finally being challenged and may no longer be a viable option.
The winning printing press also wins for gold in fiat prices before the paper collapses for everyone, the invalidation of the currency.
Glad you were out at 1650? I guess you won't be around when gold hits 3000.
Standard opex week behavior. Still seeing a pretty big disconnect between the reported registered stocks still outstanding, and what should have happened based on the delivery notices net of stops.
RafterMan wil make his first prediction on Au and Ag (as an aside auto spell replaces Au with AU - apparently more 'murikans have use for Astronomical Units than gold) and here it is:
Both get crushed, desperately, in the final week of March and the first week of April.
Then is the time to back up the truck; mining shares also tank. On 10 April China releases it's gold holdings and it comes in above Germany but below the US. Although a low-ball lie, the number provides an un-ignorable slap to the consciousness of the 'merikan booberati, and the PM fuse is lit.
That's my theory, dry powder building, ready to jump on a price smash. Be long, be strong.
Dream on
The Fed has godly powers
Well, that's my point; they smash before the big reveal.
Did you mean "god-like"? Godly powers would be used for mercy and justice, not fraud and enslavement.
It is interesting how, just in the last week, sleazebags come out of the woodwork to talk it down. Make a mental note of said sleazebags.
This last week of March is the slog: end of quarter window-dressing prior to Q2 run up. April should be fun.
It was an options expiry day. Wouldn't be surprised to see a pop up tonight but on the other hand, bulls are exhausted and fearful.
Funny, when I first heard about the imminent "Golden Cross" it seemed obvious to me that if it is indeed the sort of indicator that would change behaviour of HFT bots, it would either never be allowed to happen or would quickly be cleansed from the tape with some rapid unexplained selling.
The same thing goes for these "hindenburg omens" and other "critical" support levels in US stock and bond markets. Every time we are just about to breach or do breach, a mysterious force furiously sends things back onto the safe side of the line. Every time for years now.
There is either a significant conspiracy here or TA was and is a load of crap.
Excerpt from headline: Gold Drops To 6-Week Lows, Back Under $1,300
ForWhomTheTollBuilds: ...or would quickly be cleansed from the tape with some rapid unexplained selling...
It's not 'unexplained'. We know the explanation; Ukraine's tonnage is suddenly available for rehypothecation.
If Vlad has any sense he'll hoover it all up - and more - at the reduced price with his USD and wind up owning Ukraine's bullion.
I'm guessing he knows the difference between paper and phizz.
Real TA is lock-on:
flic.kr/p/kpoT2k slide 1 : regression (power) trend R2 = 0.98 USLV = silver3.92 / 2364.56
flic.kr/p/kppK2Z slide 2 : projections with & without ETF decay
flic.kr/p/kprn3f slide 3 : ETF decay on factor vs date
Fake TA which is what passes for technical analysis on every blog is garbage, as you have seen.
I'm hoping it goes to $1,000 so I can unload my savings account on it and other PMs
Really? I'm hoping for it to climb to 2k and then the dollar collapses, I don't need anymore time to prepare....fuck this
agreed 100%. enough of the "I need more time to prepare" bullshit.
looks more like this was just a manipulated dead cat bounce in a manipulated market. reality is a motherfucker.
Total fucking motherfuker.
What the fuck do we do ?
btfd bro, and when everyone runs to one side of the boat, run to the other. When someone like Sprott comes out with all the boys on kwn and says "gold 2k, golden cross, strong technicals, blah blah blah" sell some if you want, cause that's the intermediate top.
Bottom line for me - I was born under the reign of the usd. Therefore, everything I see is tainted through that lens. Thanks to zh and other sites, I can now choose to take those lenses off, and the world looks a lot different. Instead of pricing things in the usd, I try to price things in gold (good practice for my future dealings at bartertown). I've found some outstanding deals because of that. (I know I am still using the usd for a reference, but it's a start)
It's also helpful to me to remember that in a zirp environment, savers are punished. It's company policy. Apart from a barbarous relic, gold and silver are considered vehicles for saving (storing) wealth. It only makes sense to punish the pm's. They're not speculative vehicles, that's what the all revered Stalingrad & Poorski is for.
Hahaha..
The world is a lot bigger then KWN. Goldman and Rubini were bearish on gold at the same time sprott was bullish. You are siding with Goldman ?
You really think people are piled onto the bullish side of gold ?
You are fuct
~"Instead of pricing things in the usd, I try to price things in gold (good practice for my future dealings at bartertown)."~
I had that very conversation with my PM dealer this last week. Here's my take: a Mercury dime will always buy a loaf of bread, (assuming wheat is available).
The problem I see here is between those stackers who are in it for the long haul and speculators. I'm not knocking the speculs but as a stacker, it is my desire that I am never forced into a position where I have to trade any Mercs for loaves. My end goal is for my children to inherit my stack and for them to take up where I stopped. I guess you could call me a transgenerational stacker.
BTMFD!
This ain't no 100m sprint, it's a fuckin' endurance test.
How much pain can you take for choosing the red pill?
Gold!? Manipulated?! No way - everything else, maybe, but not gold, gold's not a market that can ever possibly be manipulated - well, unless it's been proven to be manipulated, in which case, sure, it's manipulated, but what are you going to do about it? Prosecute the manipulators? - OH LOOK WHAT MILEY CYRUS IS UP TO!!
looks more like this was just a manipulated dead cat bounce in a manipulated market.
Dead cat bounce? Somehow exactly correlated to the war chatter..
People should take heart that when the shit was hitting the fan people did move into gold, the second shittybank started talking about gold to a zillion it was time to sell though.
Yes that is fine... after it goes to $1,000 so I can hop on the train right before it leaves.
Bitcoin up since March 22.
Investors selling gold and buying bitcoin. The great rotation has begun.
The one and Only Fornstar
Fartstar
"Investors selling gold and buying bitcoin."
I'm very pro-bitcoin and that statement is just full on delusional.
Tyler's interpretation is most likely correct -- gold usually drops initially in times of financial crisis as it's a known-good liquid investment that can be liquidated to free up cash for margin calls. With China imploding we're probably seeing those holding paper gold selling to cover.
When this happened in '08, it was followed shortly by big financial news breaking and gold launching higher in a matter of a few weeks.
Hogwash
That only made sense when gold was up year after year. Not down for 3 years
People who buy paper gold aren't long term investors. It makes perfect sense for them to park some short-term cash into paper AU for diversification. I'd be surprised if the sellers were in for 6 months, let alone 3 years.
Have you ever heard of the LBMA market making members ? They fix the price of paper gold.
Simple as that.
I was wondering if China isn't going to drop some gold to keep the ponzi going.....
If I'm will be forced to make a choice to buy bitcoin or bullish shit, I'll buy a bull shit without thinking.
SIR! I will not infringe upon your liberties. You are free to buy anything you want! SIR!
You could make money selling bullshit to farmers. You can't make a dime with bitcoin. Bitcoin is a get rich quick scheme for all the lazy kids under 35. They didn't build that.
//
//Only for ponzi-bagholder-fools. BTC hit $6 recently and will do so again. http://flic.kr/p/kyKgtF
Think the ZH effect will work, bottom-ticking price of gold? Nah, didn't think so.
There is no sentiment indicators . There is no technical. There is no fundamentals. There is nothing.
ah yes...it all makes perfect sense...
THANKS AGAIN YOU BANKER FUCKS FOR ALLOWING ME TO PUT THE PEDAL TO THE METAL AND STACKING MORE REAL MONEY AT THESE MANIPULATE PHONY PAPER PRICES....KEEP STACKIN YA'LL
and as death to the MoneyChangers...
Does Russia benefit from lower gold prices?
Financial weaponry is one of the things where the US still is No. 1.
It depends on how Russia would act. If they will buy silver at $ 2 billion and require physical delivery, then, price of gold via GSR, will explode above $ 2,000 an ounce.
There is no "via GSR" as there is no GSR mechanism, gold vs silver ratio.
There is, however, a power-relationship.
Most recent curvature is ln(silver) = gold x 3 / 2635 + (19/12) http://flic.kr/p/f17z1s,
though recently I've seen that constant decline to 18.15/12 sticking to that basis of fractions.
Even longer-term there's a chart here: http://flic.kr/p/f5bHkJ
Bullish on copper jacketed ammo!
Plated and set it on auto
They do have a fresh 33 tons to play with..
What is that now? One week of China buying?
April options expiration day.
I always check in with the perpetually cogent analyses of Jesse:
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/
ALWAYS +41
This isn't your 2010 options exp selloff. This is 2013 smash downs all over again
it sure as hell looks like it. which means that this whole phyz supply garbage and every other theory can be chucked out the window. the only glimmer of hope is this is some 2008 style knockdown before the market barfs....but i doubt it.
I'll buy yours, Fonz.
Yeah. With mining companies doing so well, they have this market flush with physical. A thousand tons here, a thousand tons there , no problem.
I don't fucking know man...
my phyz is not for sale. it will be my legacy. my heirs will look at it in awe and say "wow that was one stubborn fuck". they may substitute stupid for stubborn and just hope i can't hear them but i can hear it from 40 years away.
I think this is the part in Fight Club where we first see Meatloaf's mantits.
I was hoping we were closer to the part where we blow our brains out and all the buildings fall down around us.
I think this is the part where the house lights come up and we realize it was all a fucking movie.
I know , I know ... 15 or 20 years from now, gold will be the end all. But I don't want to wait that long.
You read my mind fonz
no heirs here. Will be bartering my silver & gold for other needed items or services.
Sorry to interrupt, but just take a look at the 5y chart when it was going op to 1800 it didn't go in a smooth straight line. It went up steady whith far greater corrections then the drop we are seeing now. If you can't handle this, you better stay away from investing.. http://www.bullionvault.com/gold-price-chart.do
Buying on this dip only means the gains will be much higher. With these give-away prices the east will buy as much as they can sucking the supply, when the inevitable market crash happens, we will see incredible prices because of the shortage these suppressed prices are creating now. (Supply and demand )
All you need is patience and confidence, but if you need the money short term then don't bother.
IMHO
It's fucking bullshit....we will all be insolvent before it goes up....money is hard to come by these days, if you haven't noticed. I've been buying since 2007, and I've got quite a bit of ozs.....money though, and monthly income is getting hard to come by.....fuck this shit
The way I see it, as much as I would hate to I can always sell some of my stack for immediate cash. It beats the living hell out of having a savings account at 0.025% interest!
jesse and jim sinclair and jim rogers and his silver and schiff and jim willie and faber can all eat my ass.
fonz - ROTFLMAO - I am hoping that all of the jims, jesse and peter are on a diet otherwise you need to be a fat ass! :)
Junior miners made me plenty of money, until very very lately.
Keep calm and look at the corrections last time gold made a 10y bull, don't let emotions trouble your thinking. The people who bought at 350$ and sold at 1700$ (or still own at 1300$) had to sit out far worse corrections as you can see on the 5y chart. Did you really expect it would go up in a straight line without corrections? Of course not, but that doesn't mean it will not go up in the long haul.
Just look at the chart and analyze the 10y bull run, corrections are normal! http://www.bullionvault.com/gold-price-chart.do
exactly...i was itching to pull the trigger all week long, even last week seeing that the "LONDON FIX" has been on, but checked the expiry date and decided to wait...
Jesse's site is a daily read...
gold is soooooooo over 'til 2015
A funny old briar I used to play euchre with would get frustrated because my partner and I had a system of signals running and he could never catch us at it. He was a great player, but always on the losing side.
He'd ask his brother, "Tommy, I know we're the best, how come we never win?"
Now I know how he felt.. Lulz!
bitchez?
Gun and ammo metals holding value nicely.
The only metal that matters is lead and heavy metal.
Funny, 1300 looks a lot better on the way up than on the way down.
only because the time difference between those 2 events has meant devalued dollars cause devalued purchasing-power of the wages which have stagnated the entire time. If only there'd been more chances to get at 1300 before that extra devaluation but it's better than being faced with 3000/oz and income being even lower.
But ZH commenters told me the dollar would crash because RUB and CNY!!!!!!
I set my clock by Jim Willie & John Williams - that way I can be precisely sure when it isn't.
Options expiration day?
For 3 days ?
Oh, just barely under 1300 - really more like exactly 1300. Tough luck if you held Comex 1300 puts, SOOO CLOSE to being in the money, yet somehow magically, not quite. Oh well, not tomorrow, but after March Comex closes completely, maybe it will drop under 1300, then you can feel good about being right on the direction, even if you were wrong on the timing. Wow, isn't it funny the way the price settles right on those round numbers at options expiry - like some kind of magic trick...
My stack is fine, but I'm getting my arse handed to me on a plate with my paper speculation. Motherfuckers. That Golden Cross was a golden crock :(
They always are.
Technical analysis can't be accomplished using moving averages, maybe using Fibonacci, can't be accomplished using head-and-shoulders or other "formation" patterns.
You need scatterplots & time-series equations.
In my case I haven't posted anything time-series recently but if you re-scale the 10-year gold chart log-scale on THE DATE axis as well as the price axis you can see a repeating pattern from 2008 replicated now.
I then apply a trend-curve scatterplot equation for gold-to-silver http://flic.kr/p/f17z1s and figure out from there what I want to do, like USLV, AGQ options (pre-split) or stacking bullion.
Just the banks taking out the options contracts....they dont want anyone to ask for delivery....they dont have the gold...
PMs are manipulated. So why hold them? Because green pieces of paper continue to lose their value over time. TPTB lie, steal, commit fraud to secure assets of value. They are securing their assets, I suggest you dump the illusion of a sound U.S. Monetary paradigm and look around. We are approaching a pivot point and they don't want the sheep in gold or silver.
I agree, though I don't think they give a fuck about the sheep one way or the other.
<rant on>
Everything is the current system is manipulated. Everything. From the SP500 to gold to bitcoin, from oil to pork bellies. There's a fucking liquidity firehose blasting out $75B a month to banks that carry out their orders in exchange for the prosecution-free right to front run and fuck all of society over. The "system" as we know it collapsed in 2008, and what's left is an ever-growing zombie held together by bailing wire, duct tape and Fed liquidity. The people running the show don't have a clue, know what they're doing now not only won't fix it but is making the problems worse, but know like a great white shark if they stop swimming, they will die. So they keep doing it and keep covering it up. Every time a new set of data appears that they haven't contaminated with their manipulation, they jump on it with the firehose to make it look good.
This isn't a little game. It's the entire fucking world that's in on it, almost every central bank playing hot potato with their currencies lest someone get ahead by fucking up their system more than the other guy. The point of no return was in the rear view mirror more than a decade ago. They will keep doing this -- be it manipulating gold down, real estate up, whatever it takes -- until it can't be done any longer. If you're expecting a predictable return or even just stable asset prices, give up now, it's never going to happen.
One day, maybe next week, maybe in 2018, maybe by some miracle in 2050, we see what happens when you fuck with complex systems thinking you're in control. It'll be something innocuous initially, maybe it's copper, maybe it's T-bill purchases, we can't know -- will be off a little, and then the next day a little more, and then derivative effects kick in, and soon it's like September of 2008 where the wheels look like they're falling off. And then TPTB make their pronouncements, insurance is extended, whatever, but there's no one left to fucking manipulate, the markets aren't falling due to liquidating IRAs this time, because that money bought starving families ramen noodles three years before, and TPTB suddenly finds they're fighting among themselves, and there's no way out and every iPad loving consumer at this point is just fucking collateral damage as TPTB's century-long shitshow comes to an end. That is when our gold might be worth something again, and no sooner. Hopefully when the time comes the sky is filled with Gulfsteams leaving for better pastures like we saw as the Ukraine circled the drain, and that some merry pranksters found a way to dump a few tons of price-manipulated sugar into their tanks, and we end up with so many banker-filled jets at the bottom of the ocean that it looks like a school of sardines when you fly over.
</end rant>
Options expiration smackdown...happens everytime....tomorrow the price will start to "magically" rise.
Dog shit
In 2010-11, options exp selloffs would be one day.
Food, bitchez!
Booze. Guns. Ammo. Bunkers.
I thought the chinese port storage double backflip financing scheme unwind was supposed to drive copper lower but somehow levitate gold upward due to the same dynamics working in reverse. Damn, my M.A. in Economics is insufficient; looks like I'll need to trade in my stack to buy a PhD so I can understand this shit.
It's easy really: when China was running their paper gold house of cards the effect was to drive down the price of gold; as it unfolds it will also drive down the price of gold. The lesson is everything is bad for gold and worse for miners and everything is good for stocks. You could get a Phd, like Bennie and Janet or much cheaper, some good dope. Either way it will all be OK. And BTFD.
21st century economics is nonsesne. Piling it higher and Deeper (PhD) will not help you. So sorry...
Finance is overbuilt. Healthcare is overbuilt. Education is overbuilt. Government is insanely overbuilt!!! This is only four of more bubbles than I can count. The pot my dear ZH friends is boiling and the pressure is building at an ever increasing rate. We have exhausted virually all options except one.
The best investment in last half of '14 or '15 will be tar, feathers, torches, and pitchforks.
Does anybody here know what "gird yourself" means?
;-D
"None shall pass." - The Black Knight
Bought USLV 45.27 today. Tight stop.
Bought a boatload of June $5 calls on ANV for pennies. Given that ANV hit $6 recently and was near $40 a little over a year ago, I could make a huge score but have risked very little. To whomever is knocking down the price of miners, thanks!
Caracalla; gotta love the panic. Garden-variety backtest, gentlemen. If you are not confident, run stops.
Getting more a.s.a.p. but other budgetary items take precedent.
It's a good time to get this one. I'm not even using a stop. I know where the long-term future of this is going provided it doesn't go insolvent, it being a paper trade, get Corzined, it being in the hands of Banksters before I can cash in.
A stop only means I actualize a cash loss. I don't need to do that. When I need cash for something more than USLV I get that other thing and no USLV.
flic.kr/p/kpoT2k slide 1 : regression (power) trend R2 = 0.98 USLV = silver3.92 / 2364.56
flic.kr/p/kppK2Z slide 2 : projections with & without ETF decay
flic.kr/p/kprn3f slide 3 : ETF decay on factor vs date
I will be unsurprised to see silver at 50 by the end of this year, 100 by the end of next year and shortly after probably 180 to 260, as gold moves to 3500 by then.
What are you smoking....can I have some?
smoking? I do math. I put up math charts. I do troll sometimes but this was a math post. What are you smoking? Are you saying the equations mismatch the data?
Go look at the gold 10 year chart.
Compress the price scale using the log function. If you've never seen this before you are beyond help.
Now do the same to the date axis. You haven't seen this before but it's the same concept.
Now look at the 2008 drop. Look at the 2011 drop. They can be overlaid. Find the equation mapping one to the other.
Map this from 2011 forward and look for errors in fit.
Map it beyond today by 3 years.
Ta-da.
Now fix it up with silver, http://flic.kr/p/f17z1s , then silver with USLV, http://flic.kr/p/kpoT2k and http://flic.kr/p/kppK2Z , and the outcome is obvious.
2 things can stop this for USLV. #1 paper currency can collapse. I'm prepared for that. #2 fiat prices can collapse for gold & silver because wages go up, savings go up in fiat, deflation happens for everything essential people need & so they now are not suffering as much, and all those things must happen together which means bond rates need to go in the area of 6% to 10% simultaneous to doing no harm, no defaults, no printing/QE of any sort, from all major economic nations on Earth. Guess what? That's not happening.
I love it, probably buying silver soon
Today is a great day to get long courtesy of the bullion banks.
Just like any rape victim, after the third or so "go around" your ass or vag begin to hurt less...you settle in...just wait until the eyes roll over and the inevitable sigh of relief is exasperated.
I'm not really concerned about gold and its producers crashing right now since I'm already fully invested. I don't have cash available to buy more, and selling at the current price would be retarded. It'll probably crash a lot more before it starts going up as people panic sell to free up cash. We just had an article about rich Chinese people panic selling their real estate in Hong Kong and Singapore to free up cash.
Those who come out with some cash . . . what do you think they will do with it?
Pay off debt.
10 British Sovereigns headed my way...
ounce after ounce, year after year..... last man standing
I have some from the victorian age. Truly amazing, when you hold these you think this was, is and has been money.
For most, gold is still a paper asset, traded on margin, and will continue to fluctuate accordingly.
Keep calm, and stack on.
Sign me up for another O-Z.
..... . Silver now down 9 daze in a row, testing very near the bottom of the range going way back.
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=SI&p=d1
Beep.....Beep.....Beep......Beep.....Beep
Let loose the monkey-hammers of war!
I'm starting to see bag holders.
My origional cr250 looks good'
Air pumper "red barrel"