The "Recovery" Is Said To Be Hiding Somewhere In These Non-Recovering Charts

Tyler Durden's picture

... we just don't know where.

Moments ago the Census Bureau reported the February Durable Goods number which beat expectations of a 0.8% sequential increase, rising instead by 2.2% (which still resulted in barely a 0.2% increase compared to last February). Why? All thanks to defense and non-defense aircraft orders, which jumped by 21.1% and 13.6% in February, respectively. Strip those away, and the Durable Goods number ex very volatile Transports rose a modest 0.2% in the month, below the expected 0.3%, with the January data print further revised lower from 1.1% to 0.9%. In other words, the "harsh weather" did not impact airplane orders, it did however impact all other orders.

The other problem, however, and a far bigger one is that the long overdue CapEx recovery continues to not appear, and in fact in February, Capital Goods non-defense ex aircraft tumbled 1.5% compared to expectations of a 0.5% rise, with the January increase of 1.7% cut by more than half to just 0.8%. Ooops.

The silver lining: shipments (based on prior orders), which missed by less, printing at 0.5%, compared to expectations of 0.8%, and the January number revised from -0.8% to -1.4%.

In summary - yet another ugly report top to bottom.

And here are the charts that matter - see if you can spot either the so-called recovery, or the capex recovery?

Capex orders:


Capex shipments:


Durable Goods total:


And Durable Goods ex transports:

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Looney's picture

Peekaboo Recovery (TM)   ;-)


AcidRastaHead's picture

Yes, you're correct.  Its the dashed line.

NoDebt's picture

On CNBC this article is titled "Lion in Winter- Durable Goods Roar in February."

I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue.

BKbroiler's picture

2010 was such a good year for Capex they decided to repeat it.

zaphod's picture

And remember this is with the FED's foot fully on the print button. Just imagine what will happen when this artificial stimulus is removed either by stopping QE or the world walking away from dollars. 

Anyone who doesn't have at least a little physical at this point is a fool.

Judge Crater's picture

If you find a clue in the charts to the location of a print of the the lost movie,  "Convention City," (1933), let me know. 

ihedgemyhedges's picture

It's right behind MH370.....

GetZeeGold's picture



The recovery is in Diego Garcia?

NoDebt's picture

The recovery is over Macho Grande.  And, no, we'll never get over Macho Grande.

Truther's picture

These slopes look really familiar.... I recall Bernanke for that.

pound the vix's picture

Nonsense!!!  S&P record here we come.  CAT to lead the charge on those great China numbers.  Cramer says!

The Most Interesting Frog in the World's picture

an almost limitless pent up demand from ghost population....

PlusTic's picture

Looks the fuck outa stocks :0

pound the vix's picture

Krugman did say distroying buildings and rebuilding them was good for the economy.  So I guess flying airplanes into the sea works just as well.

TahoeBilly2012's picture

Only when you have a hot to trot reserve currency

Ban KKiller's picture

Ah, yes. I see it now. The double head and shoulder mini triple top follows the expected ramp to the moon pattern.

Free market doubleplus good no doubt.


jubber's picture

futures rally further...

papaswamp's picture

It's amazing how one can see each attempt at injections, cash for clunkers, or the latest tax break for capex and then taper off. Got to love aircraft orders for 2018 making the headline number 2.2%.

digitlman's picture

Aircraft orders that will probably be cancelled.

Rakshas's picture

Ahhhhhhh Grasshopper........

The height of strategy is not to subdue the enemy in battle, but to subdue him without fighting at all. Sun Tzu

You suppose Yellen read the art of war??

................... No I think not.....

LawsofPhysics's picture

Indeed, one has to wonder if there's an "art of greed" or "art of slave ownership" manual out there...

Hal n back's picture

the spin is that things have leveled off

new game's picture

all appears to flatlining....

PlusTic's picture

Economics shmeeconomics...its all about FED-driven ponzi-supported algo orgies...which will NEVER end!

Iam Yue2's picture

But GS' Hatzius told us that CapEx was set to rocket; what's going on.

q99x2's picture

There will be no recovery as long as there is a FED, a Holder and an Obama. Three things the white man knew would bring an end to this once great nation.

The Most Interesting Frog in the World's picture

If you stand on your head it looks a lot better... just saying...

insanelysane's picture

Airplanes are a growth industry since they seem to just disappear every now and then.

Notsobadwlad's picture

OK, I will bite.

The charts are first derivatives (the change over time) of capex purchases.

1. Just by eyeballing it, it looks as if starting from the bottom in 2008, (taking the integral) the positive area under the curve is greater than the area under the curve so there was in fact actual average growth in cap ex spending when starting from the bottom.

2. Aso, the second derivative (the change in the change) was very positive from the bottom, then went negative and has now aparently stabilized. Stabilization is good right?

bruce1337's picture

Must be somewhere in the deep oceans, right along with the missing heat of global warming.

SimpleSimon's picture

The Fed balance sheet is THE only evidence we need of a robust recovery. For the 0.1% that matter that is.  

For the rest, their recovery is evident in the chart of Obamacare "enrollments", public debt, pages in the Federal Register, etc.

eaglerock's picture

If you print out these charts and turn them slightly counterclockwise, you can clearly see that the recovery is going swimmingly.   

Cattender's picture

It's A RECOVERY!!!!! (Gold and Silver Suck!) Buy Stock NOW!!!!!!