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FOMC Asset Purchases And The S&P 500

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Lance Roberts of STA Wealth Management,

 

 

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Thu, 03/27/2014 - 15:05 | 4599749 youngman
youngman's picture

If the Fed quits QE...then has to jump back in...I see that as a big turning point...nationally for sure...but internationally also.....the rest of the world will know that we are going to print to infinity...and will take actions to protect their countries and curriencies...

Thu, 03/27/2014 - 15:13 | 4599789 NoDebt
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I think Japan has had somewhere in the teens of QE-like "stimulus programs" since the early 90s.  The world keeps crawing back to the Yen over.... and over.... and over.... and over again.

Thu, 03/27/2014 - 18:03 | 4600445 knukles
knukles's picture

If we're "in a Liquidity Trap"?
You gotta be fucking kidding me?
What the fuck do you think we're in genius?

 

This is shit has been going on for way too long.
Wake up, Progressives!

Thu, 03/27/2014 - 18:28 | 4600538 Dollarmedes
Dollarmedes's picture

"If the current pace of reductions continues..."

But the reductions haven't continued. Just ask Belgium.

Seriously, the US government wants to continue running large deficits. For that to happen, they MUST sell UST. But the Fed has announced that it is tapering, and history before QE1 showed that foreign governments were not in the buying mood (one might assume that condition still holds). So who will be buying these bonds?

 

The only other options instead of creating treasuries (i.e. fake assets) is to print explicitly (i.e. fake money) or start selling/confiscating real assets. Unless there is another fake asset that the US government can create that I'm missing.

 

This is why the theory of Fed "shadow ops" like Belgium is so compelling.

Fri, 03/28/2014 - 16:25 | 4603640 TheRedScourge
TheRedScourge's picture

MyRA...

Thu, 03/27/2014 - 15:13 | 4599785 WhoIsJohnGaltCoin
WhoIsJohnGaltCoin's picture

I long for the day when Joe six pack will know that QE = printing money. 

Thu, 03/27/2014 - 22:19 | 4601298 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

I long for the day Joe six pack understands the implications of printing money, even in vague terms.

Thu, 03/27/2014 - 15:18 | 4599807 put_peter
put_peter's picture

-34%

Thu, 03/27/2014 - 15:18 | 4599811 delivered
delivered's picture

Anyone who thinks that removing $1 trillion a year ($85 billion a month of Fed purchases) of monetary stimulus from the economy will not have a significant impact is either delusional, in denial, or lives in the state of Washington or Colorado. When the US economy/capitalist system allowed the Fed to become the single biggest factor in determining how and when markets perform, the game was over. The Fed's influence has only intensified over the past 15 to 20 years which is a direct correlation to how the economy has "not" performed. 

One simply needs to look back at the Fed policy changes in 1998/1999 and the resulting impact of the dot.com/tech crash shortly after and then again in 2006/early 2007 bringing on the Great Recession financial meltdown shorly after. Decreasing purchases from $1 trillion a year to zero is a major policy change that will have dramatic impacts around the globe (which has already started). The only issue is when which brings up my next point. The equity markets are the last parties to actually "get" and act on the message. Credit is getting and acting on the message today. But equity, with the message already being relayed loud and clear, will wait until the very end to actually act on the message. Every bull market ends with the bulls kicking and screaming until the bitter end. No different this time around as the bulls will kick and scream for another month, two, three or maybe even six but evetually, succumb to the beast the Fed has created. 

The Fed policy change started in December and is in full force. My guess is that it will take six to 12 months to be fully accepted by the equity markets. Until then, the bulls will continue to spew their venom in hopes and prayers that it is truly different this time. But the only thing that will be different will be the volitility of the moves as each correction is becoming more and more extreme as the Fed's actions become more and more aggressive.

Thu, 03/27/2014 - 15:32 | 4599892 Unknown Poster
Unknown Poster's picture

As the manipulation ends/(restarts?), he who sells first sells best.

Thu, 03/27/2014 - 16:47 | 4600195 nightshiftsucks
nightshiftsucks's picture

We all know it's a game now,do you really believe after 7 trillion in debt and 3 trillion in QE they will just walk away ? The Feds need to keep the stock market propped up for the Pension plans,think about how much the govts and companies would have to add to their plans to keep them funded.They may let the market dump a little bit before they print until the end.

Thu, 03/27/2014 - 22:22 | 4601303 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Full force?  Didn't the FED QE $105B in Feb?  Weren't they supposed to only do $65B? 

If the ecomony was a woman, Feb was a heavy flow month for the FED.

Thu, 03/27/2014 - 15:31 | 4599887 asteroids
asteroids's picture

When will the bond market force a real rise in rates? 2014, 2015? That's the big question. That's when Japan implodes and very very bad things will start happening.

Thu, 03/27/2014 - 15:43 | 4599955 NDXTrader
NDXTrader's picture

If this scenerio were to play out with regards to tapering the market would never get to 2000. People will anticipate the lack of liquidity and/or weakening of the economy and it becomes who can get through the door first. I would guess that would occur around 1884... oh wait

Thu, 03/27/2014 - 17:40 | 4600371 LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

According to Richard Duncan, who studies credit, liquidity starts drying up at the end of the 2nd qtr. I look for a rocky summer and fall. Maybe the Fed will act, but the people are on to them. They may not stop taper and instead start charging the member banks interest on reserves. Now that would be interesting!

Thu, 03/27/2014 - 15:54 | 4600001 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

. 'monetary impotence'

+ 100 for that phrase.

Thu, 03/27/2014 - 15:58 | 4600018 BurningFuld
BurningFuld's picture

The Key here is not to run out of " students " to loan money to.

Thu, 03/27/2014 - 16:24 | 4600118 Miffed Microbio...
Miffed Microbiologist's picture

It's amazing to see the aggressive tactics these student counselors employ to hook these kids. My youngest who is not sure of her direction is running out of her allotted credits she can accrue at community college. She is being pressured to transfer to a 4 year institution " because everyone needs an education". We refuse to do this unless she has a major that spending that amount of money would make sense. I've had people tell me as a parent you must fund an education " because a good parent must give his child any chance possible for him to succeed". So how is destroying myself financially beneficial to my child? Just talking to these people made me feel like I was at an Amway meeting.

Miffed;-)

Thu, 03/27/2014 - 16:50 | 4600208 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

Miffed, with nearly two years of community college, your daughter has plenty of institutional education. What might be constructive is finding out her real interests and pursue those along the lines of entrepreneurship. I'm 60, and am considering helping out a much younger guy establish his own auto repair shop in exchange for teaching me some basics of auto mechanics. It's a skill that will always be in demand.

I'm not nearly so informed as to what skills women can perform and need most, but almost any trade-oriented skill should provide enough for a start-up business.

Just an example of my thinking: My sister is spending 48K a year to send her 1st daughter to U of Michigan. Imagine investing half that amount in an aspiring new business - even farming or handyman services - instead of throwing it down the education crapper?

I don't have kids, but I'd be sure to steer them more towards trades (my father was a lawyer and my grandfather a mason - my father often lamented that he'd have been better off as a mason) than "professions" wherein you end up a debt slave. Just my opinion.

Thu, 03/27/2014 - 17:47 | 4600396 SKY85hawk
SKY85hawk's picture

It's important that a young'un have some attraction to the kind of work they'll be doing for the next 40 years.

Did your daughter take a 'Career Assessment Survey?'  They were called Kuder tests in the late 60's.

Mine said I should be a plumber.  Things worked out real well for me & the wife.

 

You're doing the right thing to ignore those banker SHILLS!

 

 

Thu, 03/27/2014 - 16:10 | 4600070 TrustWho
TrustWho's picture

Economics is driven by the marginal dollar. MD of QE is negative.

Thu, 03/27/2014 - 17:26 | 4600323 Jstanley011
Jstanley011's picture

Economics is driven by energy. Which is why we've begun a secular bull market that will last for the next twenty years...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v5RwY1GXAzA&index=30

Thu, 03/27/2014 - 16:25 | 4600122 Conax
Conax's picture

<-They lie all the time

<-They really slowed the QE

Thu, 03/27/2014 - 16:37 | 4600166 moneybots
moneybots's picture

"can the US economy can stand on its own when QE completely winds down?"

 

The economy can't stand on it's own with QE, let alone without it.  The employment participation rate is at 1978 level.  Food stamps for nearly 47 million.  It is a depression and has been all through out QE. 

Thu, 03/27/2014 - 16:39 | 4600167 WhoIsJohnGaltCoin
WhoIsJohnGaltCoin's picture

@Miffed My girlfriends parents saddled her with 100k+ in debt for a degree in urban planning which is like pre-architecture. she not even sure she's gonna go to grad school now becuase she's too deep in debt and it's not what she envisioned when she was 18 years old. I want to punch her parents in the face. At least I got an engineering degree for my 100k thanks to my parents who forced me into something that was worth it.

only 19k left to pay off :( at least half of it is at 2.1%

 

Thu, 03/27/2014 - 16:50 | 4600209 moneybots
moneybots's picture

"Miffed My girlfriends parents saddled her with 100k+ in debt for a degree"

 

The government made college affordable with government guaranteed loans.

Thu, 03/27/2014 - 17:46 | 4600391 nightshiftsucks
nightshiftsucks's picture

You forgot the sarc/ right ?

Thu, 03/27/2014 - 16:39 | 4600168 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

Maybe we need to measure the economy not by growth in GDP, which, in and of itself, implies debt, but in sustainable resources and productivity. If every man, woman and child in America could live on his or her own land (think families, a lost cause with >50% children in single-parent homes), grow a substantial portion of their own food and engage in some small "cottage industry" (another relic term), what needs would there be for work for 95% of the population?

The construct we have at present is debilitating to the human spirit. More and more I look at college professors (teachers in general to some degree), lawyers, financial "professionals" and loads and loads of lower, middle and upper management as more drag on the economy than progressive forces. How does one equate $billions in legal fees generated by class actions, civil frauds and such as part of the GDP? The money simply changed hands from one monopoly (corporations) to another (the legal profession). Maybe some of that falls through the cracks down to muppetville, but hardly any.

Rich people today are wondering where to put their money, because there is so much of it sloshing around the upper echelons that it is being crowded out. If one looks at the chart of average GDP during different eras (nice chart porn, BTW), we did best as an industrial nation and, prior to that, as primarily an agricultural nation.

Facebook, instagram, twitter and lots of other internet-related businesses are not real businesses and will produce paltry profits over time. They will be the JC Pennys and Sears of today.

Bottom line, the problem is the Fed and the government, which needs to promote "growth" (inflation) in order to justify their own existences. Do away with fractional reserve banking and miles of government regulation (and the people who write the rules and regulate them), and we'd be way ahead. I'm seriously thinking of running for public office on a radical reform program, but, OTOH, who needs the bother?

Thu, 03/27/2014 - 16:47 | 4600194 moneybots
moneybots's picture

The colored vertical bars.  Periods of financial fraud.   White bars noted by circles.  Periods of financial truth. 

 

Financial fraud is the only thing holding the market up.

Thu, 03/27/2014 - 17:41 | 4600374 yrbmegr
yrbmegr's picture

If the Fed continues tapering, October could be a very interesting month.

Thu, 03/27/2014 - 22:33 | 4601327 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

How much QE did the FED do in Feb?  Look it up and you may be surprised it was not the $65B promised.

Fri, 03/28/2014 - 03:40 | 4601723 Rising Sun
Rising Sun's picture

or April

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