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The Real Price Of Gold Since 1791
With gold's last few days of weakness being extrapolated to the end of the precious metal once again, we thought a look back at 220 years of military spending, economic growth, presidents, and inflation may be a useful comparison to the 'real' price of gold...
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Gold, Bitchez!!
Can John Williams provide real inflation numbers to create a REAL chart? This one is misleading.
RIPS
80% inflation since 1980??? I could fill my truck with gas in 1980 for about $10. Well over $100 now.
Just sayin...
Exactly, what is the inflation rate used in the statistical anlysis based on ?
this chart has its facts wrong because on march 31 1972 the gold was being 38 of the dollars per the Par Value Modification Act
http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/STATUTE-86/pdf/STATUTE-86-Pg116-3.pdf
(bottom of page 116)
glad to clear that up
Comparing Gold to useless fiat federal reserve notes is a futility; like measuring a football field with a bungee tape-measure.
Instead, let's measure gold in terms of what it has been worth in real terms over the last century.
http://usa.usembassy.de/etexts/his/e_prices1.htm
In 1900, the average American worker (average of all trades) earned $438/year. That's roughly 22 gold double-eagle coins ($20 face value).
At today's gold spot price of $1294.50/oz., those 22 double-eagle gold coins are worth $27,557.00:
http://www.coinflation.com/gold_coin_values.html
In 2012, the average American worker earned $44,321.00:
http://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/AWI.html
At todays spot price, that salary would buy 35.4 gold double-eagle coins.
The bottom line: Seems to me that gold is currently undervalued...
Deathrips
See the third graph down in this article for John Williams' Shadowstats CPI adjusted gold price:
http://www.safehaven.com/article/9183/a-letter-to-governor-dodge-part-1
@Poolshark:
Taxes in 1900 weren't near as high as they were now. So at least half of those 35 double eagles are headed to the government for their "cut". And thats not adding in all of the other .gov costs like property taxes, sales taxes and the other myriad of fees and licenses you need to buy. .Gov takes most of what you make now. Hide it before they take it all.
So, looking at this chart... gold must be a buying opportunity, right? ;-)
@ RIPS: on the following valcambi chart page you can see gold, gold using CPI, and gold using shadowstats:
https://www.valcambigold.com/Charts.aspx
...paints a different picture.
https://www.valcambigold.com/Charts.aspx
Perfect, that's what I was going for with all the gibberish in my other post. The story above was just to make sure any of the sheep reading yahoo, this story was on yahoo yesterday, who might be getting a little bit of a clue and thinking about buying PM's get to see how overvalued gold is. Sure if you use a bunch of false numbers in your chart.
The real price of Gold is the blood and sweat you spend to take it out of the earth. IMHO
The real price of gold is what you can get for it when you trade it, which is the real price of every other thing in existence as well.
I am Chumbawamba.
The REAL price of gold is what you can trade for it when this puppet show finally draws the curtain...
gold needs to be printed in quantities exponentially higher to maintain the price in usd low.
This chart is such a crock of crap. It is from one of those gold bashing stories, and doesn't take into consideration several factors.
All I know is there is there is less then an ounce of gold per person on this earth and only a few ounces of gold per affluent person. Much of that gold is held by central banks, or individuals that are not going to give it up at any dollar price. The only real question is how much do you have? Is it more then the ounce or two that would be your share, what if you asked someone in China, India, Iran, or Saudi Arabia with a similar income to you, do you think they have any. If so do you think you could get it from them if all of a sudden you thought you needed it, and at what price? I read the story this chart was associated with on yahoo yesterday and thought it fit perfectly to bash gold, and get a false point across. Why is a Yahoo story on zerohedge anyway?
Why is a Yahoo story on zerohedge anyway?
Probably just to see if you're awake.
It is called counerintelligence. It is always good to see what the enemy is up to. Enemy Propaganda reveals much more than what is on the surface.
The enemy are those whom are pushing Fiat Dollars.
Yet the Gold Bugs will win the war as there is massive division within the ranks of the Fiat producers and CONFIDENCE is being eroded away.
I must have told 15 strangers, yesterday, while at Garage Sales, that there is no Gold in Fort Knox and that it was sold to China and used the fact that we returned a paltry 5 Metric Tons to Germany.
The most common response was, "I would not put it past them."
I am doing the best that I can to destroy any ebbing confidence in the US Dollar. Join me on my quest to destroy the undeserving confidence. Plant the seeds.
They want a war of Propaganda? We just have to counter it with the truth.
(I did not get any Gold out there yesterday. But I did get some Silver which helped out. It seems to be drying up or nobody is selling their Scrap Gold. It is the end of the month and people want to pay their rent.)
Thanks Pinto. Now we just have to factor in the hundreds of trillions created after 2007...and we are there.
RIPS
Or people are over paid. Deflation bitches.
Default. Puerto Rico has already burned through the three billion.
Once Japan hyperinflates it's "game on" for the global reset.
The killer is not having to have oil or it's distillates. That's hundreds of billions in trading revenues which once gone "puts the nail in the coffin." As these Teslas continue to roll into the market place you'll end up having free fuel for transportation and lighting.
That will move the economy forward. I laugh at JP Morgan's "fee based business model." That's what pays the 500 people who still work there plus the window washer and cleaning folks.
"Zombie banks"...every one of them.
Perhaps workers are simply earning more? This is a difficult metric to use in esablishing the value of gold. I would need to see more evidence.
Even the BIS inflation calculator shows WAY over 80% inflation since 1980 -- 185% to be precise: http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl?cost1=1&year1=1980&year2=2014
Gordon Gekko's http://www.realpriceofgold.com
How about the price of Gold in something other than dollars.
Francs ? Rands ? Reals ? for camparison. Much more interesting conversation to find any currency that has been in existence that long that hasn't gone through wild variations in its valuation to Gold.
That chart is real. It demonstrates how gold has come to be manipulated relative to the dollar.
A couple of comments from someone who has actually traded in this market off and on for 30 years; and was forced to learn some ways of looking at the available data that "worked" at least some of the time; in order to not go broke. The Gold Price charts show a significant medium term double bottom in place; so this would be a time when you would be looking for your time to enter the market long. Remembering as we must; that nothing has been fixed; that the PM's respond to fear and uncertainty as a primary driver, and also to inflationary inputs; we could ask outselves, concerning 2014-15; a reasonable time period; "what could go wrong". Well, the answer is , plenty, of course. Inflation is obvious, painful, and increaing, and attracting increasing attention. the situation with our government it's NATO stooges making ugly noises towards Russia is making people nervous; the combination has driven several hundred million dollars into the US Bond Market, from overseas, recently. This is the actual meaning of the recent articles here about the low interest rates on US paper; low interest rates on the paper, which trades in the open market after issued, correspond to higher prices for the paper; this is fear money. or 'Safe Haven" money. If everyone's broomstick continues to be balanced on its point for the rest of the year; it's un-likely the prices of the metals will go down meaningfully from where they are now; if any of these unstable situations becomes a cause for real and present concern, such as the various aspects of the Chinese Liquidity-funding problems; military agitation, new breakouts of Euro Disease, (nothing is definitely fixed there, it just hasn't made the news lately); the metals will rally in price. I just bought a Silver Contract yesterday because I like the double bottom price history. You can't actually do anything with a long broad sweeping survey like the one in the article, but this is my point of view for whatever it's worth.
>> for whatever it's worth.
It's worth something to me. Thanks for taking the time.
after trading paper for 30 years you should know by now the nature of your short seller that you bet against and, the motivation of that short seller. A guppy betting aginst a bass is not a god idea. They will let you swim around a little ant "think" you are safe but when its time for them to feed you and 100 other guppies are going to be breakfast and it will be before the sun comes up and you knew what hit you. Not a good idea to gamble some some a-hole who had the FED credit line with unlimited backing and can sell 1000 contracts whenever he feels saucy.
You bought a silver what ???????????????
the real price of gold will be known when the public realizes their paper won't even wipe their asses
Me thinks people would die for a liter of alcohol, 10 liters of fuel and something to eat in between.
Don't think gold can supply any of those needs.
Phantom
M'kay.
I had a guy sit in my office once and tell me about how "you can't eat gold," and that's why he won't invest in it. He is a big fan of bank structured products. You know, notes issued by bank structuring desks that might have a coupon linked to the S&P, etc.
I didn't ask him if he could eat the structured notes. I also never asked him if he could eat the stock index behind the note, or the bank's stock from whom he bought the things.
Anyways I suggest you learn about what money is, and why it's wise to store the fruits of your labor in money. Not federal reserve notes, but money.
It's true that gold has no counterparty risk. It's also true that gold represents equity (as opposed to a federal reserve note which represents debt); it takes a god-awful amount of sweat, blood and gasoline to get it out of the ground. But you know what's best about it? It's fucking beautiful.
So, you go ahead and step over those nuggets, man. I'll pick them up for you.
That was beautiful. Thank you.
It was, wasn't it.
It would have been fun if had asked him if he could eat an algo too ;-)
No, but you can eat Alpo.
Barry's Dogs only eat caviar, from the W/H dining room table, and finest china.
Well, a hamburger is a structured product, what with the bun on the bottom, then sauce, the patty, bacon, lettuce, tomato, then more bacon, more sauce, and then the bun on top. Perfect structure (thanks to the bacon reinforcements) - and you can eat it.
You can get a lot of hamburger out of your average sized banker too...........
He would gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today...
P.S,: The best way to get a drink out of a bankster is to stick your fingers down his throat - Douglas Adams
nothing sucks more than eating a burger where they've rehypothecated the cheese and sauce
I own a 3X inverse hamburger ETF. I'm fuckin starving at this point.
Putting sauce under the patty - heathen.
A tear in my eye..and soo proud. I had the same experience with the UBS southern cal president.
He asked me if I could eat gold. Being methodical, we talked about mining next. Then currency vs money.... I could go on.
Funny thing is it was a presentation on sustainable technologies, where they assert that dependency on the petrocronycorp is the only option. Fuckers.
FIAT Takes 0 effort to add 0's on a screen. Gold (and even better silver) represents real value delivered and stored.
I told em not to mess with that hornets nest. Honest, I did.
RIPS
Money is an illusion. It is a figment of the imagination and a universally popular delusion amongst mankind. It is planted in our mind as a thing only inasmuch as we have unfulfilled needs that we are unwilling or unable to satisfy ourselves.
I am Chumbawamba.
I think the point was not to put all your golden eggs in one basket.
Yet, strangely enough, I've never heard of anyone smuggling a ham sandwich or fifth of gin out of the country in their ass.......
i believe Cass Elliot from the mamas and papas did that
Hillarious!! +10000
When people lose trust in their government, they lose trust in its money.
"When people lose trust in their government, they lose trust in its money."
I think you meant to say: "... they lose trust in its FIAT MONEY"
Money, that is gold and silver, do not need any trust.
Maybe he meant to say, When people trusted their government, they lost their money. That's more accurate. After 1913, US fiat should've had In Gov we trust imprinted right on it.
While I was in Seventh Grade, some 43 years ago, we were asked to imagine that an Alien Civilization had discovered Earth after Humans had become extinct. We were asked to imagine that their archaeologists discovered a United States Cent in the ruins. We were told that the aliens had learned to read English.
Our instructor guided us to come to the conclusion that the aliens might believe that the inscription, "In God We Trust" might be attributed to Abraham Lincoln as his image is on the obverse of the coin. Furthermore there is a large Temple on the Reverse that has Lincoln seated in the center of the Temple.
I believe that they wanted us to formulate the conclusion that the Government is God. The lesson was impressive.
It wasnt up her ass..it was under her double chin! It was a roast beef sandwich too.
:)
RIPS
so we are at all time highs? so sell?
Yeah, I'm confused. Article sounds bullish, but chart seems to suggest otherwise.
What this chart is missing is real inflation numbers (see John Williams) and the monetary base (if you can call it that) is thousands of times higher now than 200 years ago.
This chart is based on fictional numbers.
Soooo, wheres the real chart TYLER?
RIPS
Edit: wtf is this chart man?
this chart is tyler showing his contempt and frustration with goldbugs
ive suspected ZH losing faith in gold for some time. When did we last have an update on the comex inventory depletion ?
So what is the store of value delivered?
Food, water and energy are the basis. Then you protect them. Then what?
Squid, Ill ask you cause you responded.I would ask tyler if it wasnt weekend tyler.
RIPS
if you're saying that gold's value is an arbitrary function of the profligacy of food shelter and energy, I'll not disagree.
The barter economy remains the base of the pyramid, gold the next tier up, paper and/or digital the next up again. When the collapse happens, in some places itll be back to the first tier, in others the second. But in the decades after, recovery to the third tier has to be completed through an honest re-establishment of the second.
and yes if you have enough food water and shelter then maybe you dont even need a medium of transaction. I cant eat gold. But putting an entire cow in my wallet is a damn inconvenience. Each has their own valid function.
We are in agreement. +1000
Gold and silver are just a fungible store of labor and ingenuity.
Food is non-fungible store of labor and ingenuity.
Hungry people are not logical... they may give you all their gold and silver, if you give them food.
Ask a mormon.
RIPS
You mean weekend Tyler is like the security guard at the front desk that tells you no one is there until Monday morning?
Not to mention the constant articles on why QE "failed" and seldom states that the Fed action is criminal and has transfered untold wealth to its designers as intended. IMO, to call it anything but criminal implies the bankers made a legitimate attempt at saving the economy.
The chart shows you the power of paper.
PAPER GOLD.
Why else would gold be siamese twined to USD.
Only GLD could do as such.
Separation will occur soon enough and will not be glorious.
Even for those who prepared in any form of asset possession, which is 9/10ths of the LAW.
The chart is useless. Precious metals prices will continue to climb; you may have to be patient for periods of up to a year. In my opinion we're now about at the end of such a period and have a pretty well tested bottom in place; but as always, that's just my opinion.
I keep telling myself opinions are like assholes, we all have one. As for the stink.....that is the manipulation you smell.
A year? I can stand on my head for a year.
What do you think about 5 - 10?
Any insight would be appreciated...
Seems like a bit of an exxageration to call gold as being at the same real peak as was seen in the late 1970s, at only $1300/ounce. There are no commodities I can buy at even less than twice 1979 prices today. I can't hire any labour at less than twice 1979 prices today. And not much food you could actually buy and eat for those prices either.
Truly Tyler Durden. Explain the chart. I'm just a BSc in Economics, not a PhD. How can this chart teach us anything. I mean.
The dollar lost 99% of his value between christmas 1913 and today. Check.
1OZ Gold was 22USD in 1913. In 1933 after devaluation it was 35 USD if I remember right. Check.
Now it is 1300USD/OZ. 1300/99= 13 USD/OZ in 1913 Dollars.... So It seems undervalued to me.
Disclosure. I just migrated to Russia in January and I'm drunk. Here everything is fine. Nightlife is wonderful.
Silver. Bitchez.
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0137523/quotes
It is undervalued by this method; but the actual market is a bit goofy; it's composed of people who have opinions. I think the most important point is that nothing that drove, or drives, the price of the metals has changed; or been "fixed"; I suppose with the exception that some enthusiasm has been generated for common stocks; but that as we know can evaporate very quickly.
It is a Long Term Double Top Chart that indicates to sell Gold.
However the Real Inflation of the US Dollar compared to that of the metrics used in this chart is misleading.
I guess one of the points which is subtly being made in this article is that one cannot rely upon charts abosolutely and one must understand the underlying fundamentals.
When one has ONLY garbage data to consider then one can ONLY realize a conclusion worth as much garbage.
I am NOT SELLING. I understand that the US Government's reported numbers are FICTION...GARBAGE.
But it is sad that many more do not. They will be drowned in an ocean of debt as the tsunami of repatriated US Dollars overwhelm them.
It was a poor development for the prospects of the US Dollar maintaining the status of the World Reserve Currency due to the report that Germany will be accepting Remimbi directly for Balance of Accounts settlements with China. Support for the US Dollar is eroding and I will expect that the process will continue to grow exponentially.
I see a massive peak in the 80's that was extinguished by a massive increase in interest rates.
Today? Nothing was done to quell the rise.
Yet the monetary base is massive compared to then (unless the expectation back then was a failed currency--this is a key assumption) and still continues to grow. (Edit: one might look at the monetary base compared to the peak value of gold then and use that ratio today to determine the value of gold should a failed currency expectation start becoming priced in.)
The more I think about it and watch what's going on, the more I think that QBAMCO was right in that all credit money (M2) will eventually find its way to base money as Yellen prints to oblivion to save the banks.
Problem is they have to continue expanding the credit at an exponential rate to keep the system stable.
Not gonna happen.
The BIGGEST PRINT is yet to happen.
holdbuysell
Yes, they used to divide the size of the Fed balance sheet by the amount of (alleged) ounces held in reserve to get the "shadow price" of gold, if memory serves.
I'm not sure but the number seems like it should be damned near $50,000 an ounce by now?
Maybe we should "risk adjust" the number by somehow scaling it by rates. So now, with rates being artificially low, the dollar value of gold, as a risk hedge, should be, well, astronomical.
Fuck all, what do I know.
I kind of miss Brodsky.
I remember reading 1 ounce of gold was always equal to a good suit, so at $50,000 a suit would cost $50,000 and everything else we buy would be inflated to match.
Hard to see how the world would work when you ask your boss for $1500 per hour.
but these days we have 'labour saving devices' that render the production of good suits a far easier task. what proportion of an average yearly wage would be soaked up in buying a suit in the old days?
but then, too, we have labour saving devices that ease the mining and production of gold
and yet again, the diminished scarcity of gold courtesy of industrial mining is then increased in scarcity again - in per capita terms - on account of now having 7 billion humans to divide the available gold by
all these things are in flux
labour saving devices - AKA Third world slave workers coated in industrial effluent.
Your analysis is good. Volcker arranged things so that .gov actually had to pay people to hold their paper; eg. the actual interest rates were higher than the actual inflation rates. This competing investment opportunity sucked the money out of gold and silver; this was a once in lifetime event. there isn't any other Volcker; (he was actually being honest and punishing .gov for its wild spending and forcing them to pay damages to citizens who held bonds). They will either print until the reaction from the market is revulsion towards the dollar; or they will taper too much and bring about a tremendous crash; either one will cause huge inflows of fear money into the metals.
i always was curious about any relationship between volker's interest rates and the gold spike in 1980, thx
"( Volker ) was actually being honest and punishing .gov for its wild spending and forcing them to pay damages to citizens who held bonds"
The fucking Bonds should ALWAYS yield more than inflation.
Without interest rates perpetually significantly above inflation acting as a brake on spending the Politicians will always over-borrow, misallocate and the Banksters will ALWAYS print it up for them as long as they get paid to do it. ALWAYS.
That was the whole point of Volker 'breaking the back of inflation'.
It wasn't the Citizenry that required 'breaking' -it was the Government and the Banks.
I see Volkers actions as more about saving the USD from incipient hyperinflation, rather than a sudden bout of intellectual honesty.
There was desperation in the fed at the time, and even greater desperation overseas as some other western cartel countries had to ratchet up interest rates in tandem to maintain some sort of currency equilibrium.
The dollar was saved for the time being..
War makes gold go up. Peace makes gold stable. Time to go long gold?
The value of Gold never changes: Gold is a Universal Principle.
The fluctuations indicates a failed Society or State in the case of the USA, as the manipulator of government paper which is creating high volitivity throughout the World.
Why, because the USA has reached Maximum Entropy due to incompetent "leadership" by the Cult, 'Morons R US' and accordingly, will go to WWWIII as a Rooseveltian solution to their own ineptitude, and the people; be damned. It is just how Trotskyites behave.
<http://verbewarp.blogspot.com.au/2013/04/to-be-or-not-to-be.html>
There are two alternatives to life: 1. Intellect and 2. Necessity.
We are run from Necessity where survival is the Order du Jour. Fear is the controller and bullshit the regulator.
Gold is the indicator of the degeneration of that aforesaid Order; at the moment and without the false doctrine of manipulation, Gold is saying that the USA and all its dependencies, are all dead meat.
I recommend that those persons who indulge in meditation and thought for Intellectual pursuit, should consider buying Gold hard, and learning the French language - as English is the lingua franca of thieves, pyrates and murderers.
Allow me to add: There is nothing learned nor intellectual about the official 'profession' (sic) of Economics. It's a spoof, a ruse and a smke and mirrors confidence game; a sting. Economic Theory is nothing more than Political Expediency which permits the centralization of production wealth and assets and the Recursive Scamming of the general populace, a priori. Economics is merely and purely a sophisticated finesse mechanism to feudal imposition by duplicitous Lawyering. All to serve the Banking System.
And as we enter WWIII now, the true value of Gold bullion will be once again, brought to the light: "Fiat Lux"
Wake the ph*ck up America. You have been set up to die and suffer and kill and murder - by knuckle-dragging, pre-Palaeolithic genetic throwbacks who are demanding "sacrifice" (austerity) ie Your sacrifice, er, in your blood.
Ho hum
Oh I'm awake alright.
We're not concerned with the "value" of Gold; that's Philosophy. We're concerned with the price of gold; a measure of it's desirability vis a vis other things.
@SAT 800 "vis a vis other things":
If you Kill (someone unknown, a friend, a child, your son or daughter - insert whatever you like) for a bar of Gold, or a drink of water, some food to eat, or a place of shelter, whatever, do you consider this a value, or a price? Because this is what is happening. How much is a life worth to you, by proxy or by your own hand?
Que?
Ho hum
Aquarius, always nice to read your posts.
If you ever in Sydney, I'd love to buy you a beer.
this is precisely the root of my comment below. , which is that the longer you go back in history, the less meanigful information is provided by the concept of continuous inflation timelines that trace to the present inflation.
Don't ho hum your great words. ++++
This recent suppression of gold was very costly to TPTB in terms of dumping ozs of
gold on the market. If the suppression continues next week, mark my word, there
is more going on than just the regular beating down of gold to redirect $ to stocks and
bonds. There is WAR in the wind. I hope not.
What am I willing to trade for an ounce of gold? That is how I measure gold's value, and at this point I cannot think of many things priced at 1285+- that I would trade for an ounce of gold today. Perhaps a piece of productive farm ground or some other such tangible possession that could provide a measure of freedom, security and return, although gold fills that role quite well on it's own.........
Who writes this drivel. The reason is obvious.
And the price is valued in dollars is supposed to show the real value of gold? Hmmm.
This is why I keep coming here. How often are you gonna find stuff like this on the mainstream news sources like Marketplace ... trick question of course, you'll never get it from them! Thanks Tylers!
I typically buy gold and silver rounds, but made a point to buy one ounce each of gold and silver coins "currency" from several countries in order to introduce my children to hard money.
I ask my kids what is different between each coin and of course they immediatley point out the artwork and finish. Apparently Turtles and Pandas are cute while Eagles are cool. Violens' are boring but shiny. Leafs and old ladies are stupid. Obviously my kids have good taste.
They notice that some coins might be thicker with a smaller diameter. But they fully comprehend that each coin has the exact same amount of metal (mass or weight) regardless of country. They understand that each coin has the exact same amount of metal, whether that is gold or silver.
They understand that a man in China values the Eagle or Panda the same as I do even though I have no idea who he is or what he does or what he believes in, or whether he is nice or mean. They understand that when I buy a silver coin, there is a man in the United States, or a man in China, or a man in New Zealand that is selling it to me; and that when I sell a silver coin there is a man in China or New Zealand that is buying it from me.
The deal is between me and another man and my government and his government have no say in the matter.
The deal is between me and another man and my mobsters and his mobsters have no say in the matter.
Fixed it.
lolz and ~$1 trillion of QE annually with negative real interrest rates is perfectly normal. Everything is fine once more, gold is surely over valued.
Yeah Baby. Thats what I'm talking about. Solidly held metal is much better than bogus bullshit.
Chart has the current REAL price at about $1400?! I don't think so. Should be over $5,000.
And the chart has the late 70s, early 80s, spike at the same level in "adjusted" numbers as now. I don't think so.
I have no hard data, but I can assure you that based on what I, and many here at ZH, know, $1,400 is a a "blue-light" special.
It should never be forgotten that the American Revolution started, at Concord and Lexington, during a Red Coat gun grab. Molon labe and see you on the battlefield.ZHrs may know the value of PMs but the often illogical rhetoric against PMs can be amusing, like this snipit:
"As of April 1st, Japan is raising a consumption tax from 5% to 8% on gold. Japan imposes a retail consumption tax on gold unlike most other countries. Indeed, the tax increased caused an early jump in gold sales in Japan during March. However, taxes are effecting gold in many ways. Because silver is taxed but gold is not in Europe, silver bars have been moved painted gold to avoid the taxes. This has distorted the numbers and led many to assume there was a higher demand for gold than there really was.
The weekly closing today below 1308 was bearish and support now lies at 1280 and 1240. As we warned at our conference, new lows are still likely to be seen in gold. Resistance should now start at the 1309-1311 area."
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/03/28/gold-tax-increase-in-japan/
LOL
Unless one spend a lot of paper explaining the assumptions in making a study of gold prices the study will be worthless. The big factors are the declaration of fixed gold prices vs market gold prices and more recently the existance of a huge gold derivative market.
In the past the need for 'gold' had to be met with metal and supply and demand were real issues. in today's market demand can be met with a limitless supply of 'paper gold'. The gold price remains as controlled by this derivative market as it ever was when the price was fixed by the gold standard.
Only when the derivative market fails will we see a true metal price.
As long as the pricing currency remains stable (the dollar) we will not see the 'real' price of gold.
That chart is INSANE.
PURE FRAUD
-----
Easily verified fact: gold buys approximately the same goods as always. And we're talking about hundreds and thousands of years (for those basic products that existed throughout such medium and long term history).
How anyone could claim such nonsense is absurd. Note that the cart says "inflation adjusted", so the chart claims the increases in gold in the past 50 years are actual increases in the price of gold. That's such nonsense!
-----
IF THIS CHART IS BASED UPON OFFICIAL NUMBERS, that simply goes to show that "official numbers" are absolute, complete, utter NONSENSE.
HINT: The price of gold is below the AVERAGE cost of production, much less the MARGINAL cost of production [that normally controls price].
I quite much agree. Bravo Honestann, whomever you are. Current food inflated costs (rptd by ZH) = 19%, for openers. ShadowStats would confirm that number. (Definition of inflation is money printed, nothing more. Costs are result of inflation). ZH confuses me, in that ZH is top drawer with leading edge fact and opinion on gold and finance, yet publishes tripe like this. Give me (Jim) Rickards and Sinclair, Turk and Grant and all of GATA any day, who would say true price is many multiples of today's artificially, criminally depressed dollar number (see chart proving many will burn in hell).
If ZH did not publish the bullshit in an unbiased manner then they would be no better than the MSM who will never publish the truth.
Thank god they keep the bullshit to a minimum.
great stuff , now we know what happens when you take false data and make some mistakes on top of it
CPI such a wonderful tool:quality adjustment, substitution, Core Inflation, owners Equivalent rent. Look at our shiny gdp numbers. Sure, we backed out the inflation. What do you think, we are crooks?
Now about those unemployment numbers. Things are looking good.
We are on and have always been on a gold standard.
Central banks and countries around the world would have absolutely no interest in holding and accumulating gold reserves at all if that wasn't the case.
The whole Universe is on a Gold Standard as Gold is a Universal Principle.
But "denial" is popular consensuality, and political correctitude, but which doesn't, a priori, make it otherwise.
Economics is nothing but a faith based cult created as a life support system for the Banking System.
Ho hum
You missed ur mark on this one Mr. Durden.
Apoligies if this seems obvious.......
http://goldsilver.com/news/using-shadowstats-inflation-statistics-we-ll-...
but I like this better.....
the longer a timeline, you use, the more nonsensical is any calculation of 'inflation'.
on historical terms, inflation is itself a derivative of the primary overlying trends of humanity. technological , demographic, and national(war) history.
in the shorter run, inflation becomes more defensibly explained as a number highly correlated with the creation of money supply.
finally from day to day, people can be forgiven for trying to peg inflation to an index of 'prices'.
of course, all inflation ever is is the rise in 'prices'. but what prices? when? where? whose? what about non-priced gifts and black market prices.
prices are everything and at the same time, because everything in history is about the 'price' or the lacktherof, we can never know the meaningful 'numbers' of long run prices. any small statistics we have are like trying to explain the reality of the story of the world of dinosaurs through a few bones we see in the archeological record, or to explain egyptian society through a few mummified remains.
remnants of the past are not sufficient to paint a picture of the past. they are a mere outline. that is all they can ever be.
at least with the case of the dinosaurs. and egyptians, we know that they were NOT us. when you look at statisitcs on inflation in 2013 dollars, you are inherenly trying to make sense of the past 100 years in terms of relating it to numbers of prices which are related to the present.
take it to the extreme and assume we had some records of the prices of egyptian and other meddietrranean society's foods prices---continuously for 5000 years. and then price that in 2013 dollars. you really think that makes any sense of anything?
at 100 years i would argue you are producing a statistic as useless and misleading as that for 5000 years ago.
the investigation of general inflation should be entirely cut off every time a new world reserve currency comes into play. as for our world, ALL inflation statistics are rendered meaningless for any time before 1945 bretton woods.
that is not to say ALL prices of separete things are useless to compare. but 'infaltion' in general is all prices together. while 'stock prices' could be compared dollar to dollar from the 20's to now. that is not a comparison being made for 'all prices of all things' and cannot be used to make generic sense of 'all prices of all things'. in narrow it's scope of comparison, it is rendering itself more specific, and thus more meaningful a comparison.
Inflation is certainly not a "rise in prices", it is simply a diminuation in the demand/value of money. Inflation is not accidental nor any natural thing it is a deliberate attempt to hide poor political and economic decisions made by banksters and politicians.
Um. Forget the gold in usd, the inflation figures are a fantasy.
Look at the gold/oil ratio, and It's sitting about 12 at the moment. Which is low -> mid-range.
There is a 100% probability that at least one molecule in a glass of water you drink has passed through a dinosaur.. that fact has about as much value as the price of gold! Maslows hierachy never mentions gold in the needs of man, but water is the first on the list!
Is it me or do I see a corelation beween the price and war on the inflation line/graph?
This chart completely ignores the effect of price manipulation and tells me nothing really about the devalued dollar, which is the inverse of the true gold price less price manipulation.
As bitcoin continues to tumble.
Phuckstar... you are an idiot.
Were they printing money for this 220 year period? If not, this chart is totally irrelevant.
What I am seeing from that chart is that gold has been a spectacularly crap investment for close to 200 years.
Gold is not the great inflation hedge people make out.....otherwise it would be $20,000oz plus right now and no one would care.....i have Gold...so don't me wrong.....but i'd prefer to own a 1955 Merc Gullwing as a hedge.....Gold is more a hedge against insane govts.....