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Stocks Surge As Yellen Goes Uber-Dovish, Says "Fed Short Of Reaching Employment And Inflation Goals"
As if there was any surprise that Yellen was fundamentally an uber dove, she just confirmed it. Here are the key highlights from her speech from Bloomberg.
- YELLEN SEES `CONSIDERABLE SLACK' IN ECONOMY, LABOR MARKET
- YELLEN SAYS QE TAPER DOESN'T MEAN REDUCED STIMULUS COMMITMENT
- YELLEN SAYS ECONOMY, JOB MARKET `ARE NOT BACK TO NORMAL HEALTH'
- YELLEN SAYS FED SHORT OF REACHING EMPLOYMENT, INFLATION GOALS
- YELLEN SAYS POST-CRISIS LABOR MARKET STRENGTHENED CONSIDERABLY
- YELLEN SAYS FED TAKES ITS 2% INFLATION GOAL `VERY SERIOUSLY'
- YELLEN SAYS DECLINE IN JOBLESS `GRADUAL BUT REMARKABLY STEADY'
- YELLEN SAYS ECONOMY NEEDS EXTRAORDINARY SUPPORT FOR `SOME TIME'
And more from BBG:
- Yellen says that despite steady progress, there’s no doubt “that the economy and the job market are not back to normal health.”
- Fed’s “extraordinary commitment” to help economy recover “is still needed and will be for some time,” Yellen said in a speech at 8:55am local time in Chicago; “I believe that view is widely shared by my fellow policymakers at the Fed”
- Tapering is “not a lessening of this commitment”
- Fed is “still considerably short” of full employment and price stability
- FOMC estimates unemployment rate consistent with full employment is 5.2%-5.6%, well below 6.7% unemployment rate for Feb.
- Inflation is well below 2% long-term goal
- It’s appropriate for Fed to continue providing “substantial help” to labor market, without adding to inflation risks, because of signs of considerable slack in economy
- Decline in unemployment rate hasn’t helped raise wages for workers
- Job market is in some ways tougher now than in any recession
- Long-term unemployed face big challenges; research shows employers are less willing to hire them
- There’s hope significant share of long-term unemployed will benefit from stronger labor market
- Significant amount of decline in participation during recovery appears to be due to slack, a sign that Fed’s help can still be effective
- Surveys show consumers and owners of small- and medium-sized businesses remain cautious about strength, durability of recovery
And the punchlines:
- Numbers of people trying to find work for more than 6 mos. or a yr are higher now than any time since records began
- Lower participation rate may mean 6.7% unemployment rate is overstating progress made in labor market
- Pool of 7m people who work part time and want full-time jobs is much larger than should be expected at 6.7% unemployment rate; this is sign that labor conditions are worse than unemployment rate indicates
Gee: who would have thought that the employment data used for Obama propganda purposes does not suddenly suit the Fed, whose Russell 200,000 target is in jeopardy of falling short.
And sure enough, the only thing that matters for algos is that their interpretation of Yellen's rehash of the same comments heard thousands of times already, is that more stimulus from the Fed, i.e., the long-awaited untaper, may be just around the corner. And stocks surge because the Chairmanwoman just admitted the economy is, gasp, weaker than expected.
Behold the great and powerful Oz...
Yellen on the big screens at Chicago community reinvestment conference pic.twitter.com/Q7lsOYgLye
— Pedro da Costa (@pdacosta) March 31, 2014
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How's the fade working out?
The number of levers, locally and globally that are controlled by a single, small group of people makes this the MOST RIGGED game ever.
Yet, similarly, fractally, at every level, there is a trap door out.
Personally, finaicially, socially....
We choose to ignore the big X on the trap door because the un-controllable slide of letting go that follows scares the heck out of us.
Anyone else done one of those super high water slides? Vertically down?
ori
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2014/03/23/my-tedx-talk/
So how do we fight all this crap the Fed is doing with our unperformance?
Me...I built another chicken coop, am working to figure out how to have less work to do in getting the manure ready to go into the garden and the actual transfer to the garden as fertilizer. We've planted more fruit trees and berries. We're working on a bigger garden so that we can help out more of our neighbors when things get bad. I'm also trying to figure out how to get cattle without having to drive too many fenceposts. And more than that we are banding together with our great neighbors, helping them on projects and accepting help on ours. We're building community against all the corruption.
I've also been teaching my children how to use a rifle in case the people coming to seek food out in the boonies aren't friendly and want to take rather than partake in making things better.
How do you suggest that we go about fighting all this BS?
Hoof, rubber hit the road time isn't it?
All I can tell you is what I've done, because, hard as it is swallow, and as esoteric as it may seem, as above, so below, as with-in, so with-out. Oldest hermetic truism.
Your outside completely reflects your in. I've had that lesson drilled into my head via my life journey.
So, in a world rushing, I slow down. By slowing down my breath.
In a world fighting, I fight my-self. Push my-self, challenge myself.
We are th eonly thing we really own and can change.
A practical thing, I have not had a mirror in my house for 4 years now. Mirrors are strange things, I'll say no more here. If you have them, cover them for a week and see what happens.
And when I want to inflict change on myself, I don't usually see what I can add (like an extra routine or a food ingredient), I look at what I can take away.
The more I can do without, the less any one/thing/circumstance has power over me.
Hope that helps.
It's all internal.
ori
"It invests all its fiat into Priceline, King's Candy Crush Saga or Lululemon, or else it gets the NIRP hose again."
- Janet Bernyellen
*The palliative "highly accomodative" jawboning of a Druish Princess lording over a dying real economy, in real time.
And the punchlines:
Why am I not laughing? Where's the kool-aid?
Independence comes from within, there is no external solution. Even though the puppet on the boob tube tells you you need them ...to "change".
Personal Independence!!!
RIPS
Wizard? more like one of the flying monkeys.
I spent the weekend rebuilding the fence around my garden, and harvested lettuce and spinach from my cold-frame that I planted in January (a first for me). Next weekend I'll get the soil turned in the garden and put my high-tunnel hoop-house ("Fukushima Dome") back up for season four of Cesium free veggies.
Hopefully, I'll get my goat pen reinforced too, as my champion jumping goat is currently keeping many spring flowers in check.
The real message then is QE and Obama are complete failures and the economy is a lot worse than ever so get the fuck out now!
The Federal Reserve will destroy itself and the entire US financial system if it stops tapering now and continues expanding its balance sheet
Obama will start a real shooting war with Russia now to save his political ass and start the process for forcing his third term.
You really think Obama wants a third term LOL? He's counting the days until he loses the Congress so he can blame the GOP for all the countries ills. You're right about the taper though the dovish speak to the markets is akin to a nurse rubbing a patients head telling him "It's okay" while preppping him for surgery. The leg is coming off to save the patient...
"I like it, I love it, I want some MOAR of it!"
Gold and silver are reacting to her comments as you might expect.
The PM algos are in good working order. They only go one way though.
I just put in sell orders for the last of my stocks. I've got a creeping feeling that this pump may be one of the last before the massive dump.
ive had that feeling for 4 years and been dead wrong and here i am reading zh, when i coulda bought stocks and been on a vacation island.....vacation islands are overrated, being debbie downer is more fun
BTATFH!!!!!
Completely agree. Money sitting on the sidelines waiting for the big correction that never arrives. Thankfully I have some money in the market but my blind co-workers who don't know much of anything are reaping huge gains on their 401Ks while half my money is sitting in cash. Soon will be time to go all in and take the risk else I'll be eating cat food in my 70s.
The big correction probably WON'T come while the printing continues. It's hard to see how the Fed can EVER take out $50B/month from the markets and not trigger a collapse. I begine to think we could simply follow Japan and stagnate for decades while the wealthy keep taking their 15%/year asset growth.
Not a snowball's chance...
I am leaning your way too. Many other factors beyond the Fed's digital printing press for their buddies are stacking up to the toppling range. I know I've been surprised by how long they have drug this out so far, but other players are finally making their moves. This may be the summer that the global economic/currency wars finally boil over and casualties start showing up quickly and closer to home than in the past few years. We shall see.
Okay, I'll bite. If people sell (who's buying aside) where will they be putting all that fiat?
Do tell...
"...where will they be putting all that fiat??"
In the bank...where it will be dutifully redeployed as loans that meet the risk tolerances of their respective institutions. If the events of recent years taught us anything (TBTF), it's that the banks can take all the risk they want!!! It doesn't matter if the loans go bad...they'll just debit depositor accounts if they are at risk of failing.
(Page 10)
http://www.fdic.gov/about/srac/2012/2012-01-25_resolution-strategy.pdf
So, kill the dollar it is then...
full "faith and credit" bitchez.. If the Fed is going to backstop all risk with dollars, then that where all the risk is and people will leave the dollar (i.e. no faith=no more credit motherfucker).
He who goes bk with the most fiat debt ...wins.
Was there ever another plan?
According to them "poor" people cant afford debt. Fucking retards! Everywhere!!
RIPS
Xeno, that's the most ridiculous statement I've read all day. How and why could you arrive at a sell off in equities when in the last 5 years - EVERY dip has been pumped by the Fed?? Either get out for the purpose of locking up gains...OR, preparing yourself to buy the next dip. But, to say you think a big swoon is coming is utterly fucking stupid, or you've been living under a rock for the last half decade. THE FED WILL NEVER ALLOW THIS MARKET TO COLLAPSE, UNTIL THEY LOSE CONTROL - AND THAT WILL HAPPEN WHEN NO ONE SEES IT COMING. GOLD WILL SEE 800.00 THIS YEAR AND THE DOW WILL EASILY SEE 20,000. BECAUSE CRIME DOES PAY AND CHEATS AND LIARS ARE IN CONTROL OF EVERY ASSET CLASS ON EARTH AND HAVE NO REPRISAL TO FEAR. NOTHING IS LEFT TO CHANCE WHEN A WORLD POWER'S WINDOW DRESSING IS AT STAKE.
"I'm a-gonna tell you how it's gonna be": http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cHocJSlcuSA
That took less than 2 months and some whinning over her first fed meeting decision. They'll be printing at a run rate of, at least, $35 billion per month going into next year.
Print, Mushmouth!
Who would have ever figured this out? Oh yeah, all you bitchez here.
She's painted into a corner. There's only one thing to do...extend and pretend as long as possible while making sure to buy an island where the plebes can't get to you when SHTF. That's what Bernanke did, right? Oh, that and give $250k speeches.
Well, lucky for her, the taper is double-edged, as it no longer means a reduction of stimulus.
The way these people destroy language, I wonder how long it will be until they merely point at pictures and grunt forcibly?
Yellen: 'I didn't get a "harrumph" out of that guy!'
The Fed is a private bank. It will do what is right for it's owners, period.
The wealth transfer (theft) will continue. Nothing short of guillotines changes that now.
Exactly why it is so hard to hear them contiunally saying that their actions are all an effort to help little Jimmy find a good job.
. .
0
----------<@){{{{-<
the looting will continue. that is all.
[spoiler] they will never reach their target
It's important that she said this. The economy needs this reassurance that rates will stay low for an extended period and stimulus will be continued and possibly increased. You actually have to give her credit for being consistent with her message.
It's also good she reiterated that the taper will continue at the same pace and be done with by October. Even more important that she gave us an estimate of 6 months after that for when we can expect interest rates increases. The market needed that clarity. You actually have to give her credit for being consistent with her message.
Yeah, I give her credit for this too:
Gave me that little kick of rage that I so desperately need on a Monday morning.
And she is only showing the hand as it has become painfully obvious that her ilk has been actively deceiving American citizens who would be deceived with her tripe.
I suppose that you have to give her credit for swiping Phil Donohue's wig for her job interview, and putting on a good show.
EDIT: get da fkuk outta here, Tommy, Tommy, you really are a funny guy!!!
Give her credit? She's a fat windbag that truely has no clue what the fuck she's doing. She's reading a script handed to her by her TRUE employers.
First of all she is not fat, she is big boned. It's a glandular problem.
Secondly, I truly love the junks. I see a few people can't understand the disparity of her own remarks and my sarcasm in playing them against each other. Amazing 5 years into this how many fucking dummies are still out here.
Parkave I junked myself because apparently I don't amuse people anymore. I see my sarcasm refresher did not help the other day.
i thought your account had been hacked.
I got the edit in before you came clean. Just want to put that out there for the record.
Big boned. Good one...lol.
Some of us got it. I was reading it and thought "Fonz is channeling the ghost of MDB."
I got it right away. Thanks for the chuckle.
I give her credit for being able to say the things she says with a straight face. That's all.
The rigged market needed that, well, that makes all the difference. What a joke, its all smoke and mirrors, and we have MOAR if needed.
Now the "Market" can fade to unch, rally back to green the last 20 minutes before the close.
The ecomony sucks soooo fucking bad that we must buy stocks to save it!! Do your part Amurika.
And to better understand the Fed's revival of the economy, read "Pet Semetary".
Come back tomorrow
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NZR64EF3OpA
"Let me make myself perfectly clear", I am a Crook.I work for Crooks, I Cook the books for the Crooks.
someone please wire this old bags mouth shut...
Efficient markets at work again! So, a few thousand CEO's made about 100 million dollars today because Yellen spoke. Tell me again the reason they are compensated so lavishly.
Don't want those Europeans to start debasing (and senging the USD higher) now do we, Jan?
I hope someone confronts Jay Carney with this one.
untapering will do nothing for real economy, tapering will do nothing for the real economy
We may not like what they are doing, but there has never been an easier time to make currency in the market. Take advantage of the gimme and then turn your profits into tangibles.
but her testamony to congress just a few days ago, seems in conflict with today's words of wisdom..great to have a job with no consequences if you are wrong, it surpises me that the FED does not require a stint at the weather channel first to get used to wrong data and wrong predictions in very short time periods.
Even Satan has to be impressed with The Fed these days.
Please, my guess is that if he isn't one of the owners, he's a major shareholder.
With all this 'We will, we won't' crap, she's guaranteeing that at some point the confidence in the Fed evaporates. She doesn't know her arse from her elbow.
DavidC
With people like Yellen and her crew extraordinarily committed to helping the economy, who needs enemies? Can you believe someone actually fucks that thing? Yikes!
I sure hope she can get those inflation numbers up to that 2% goal. Just gotta print and wire more. Did she say that inflation goal was 2% a month?
Fed policy is now like the endless war on terrorism. The "stagnant" economy will always exist, therefore extraordinary intervention is always just.
So what's the option,let it crash and watch the banks go under sooner than later or print until the dollar is destroyed ?
i take option 3: Hang all bankers, starting with the federal, then the "investment", then the lowly regional mortgage brokers.
"YELLEN SAYS QE TAPER DOESN'T MEAN REDUCED STIMULUS COMMITMENT"
Uh ya, actually it does. That's like saying, if we slow down it doesn't mean that we'll be moving slower.
I guess it's enough words to tickle algobots into a buying frenzy of everything not nailed down because less fastererness actualy means more fasterless.
"YELLEN SAYS QE TAPER DOESN'T MEAN REDUCED STIMULUS COMMITMENT"
Uh ya, actually it does. That's like saying, if we slow down it doesn't mean that we'll be moving slower.
That depends on what her definition of reduced commitment is. ZIRP is stimulus. If she tapers FED buying to ZERO, she is still committed to stimulus through ZIRP.
Letter of the law and spirit of the law. The market is thinking letter and she may be talking spirit.
Fuck Yellen.....
you first
naked jawboning. ...and you don't want us, exposing ourselves. [/peter venkman]
the tree of liberty is thirsty...it needs the blood of a few tyrants
Thanks Janet ,,, silly cunt
Ummmmmm...I don't know what an "uber dove" is but....I like that.
"Now there you go again you say...you want your freedom.
Well who am I to keep you down."
Anyone notice that Yellen has the speech pattern of a stroke victim?
I chose my posting name 'wearef_ckedwithnohope" because of this kinda shit happening all the time.
Destruction of the economy will continue until the economy improves.
I hear they are still trying to unclog her toilet at the Chicago Hilton and Towers
This farce that is this FED labor participation correlation is so obvious it amazes me we CHOOSE to ignore it.
The FED can subsidize and stimulate both consumption and production... Therefore influencing "labor." But it can't influence the HUMAN ROLE within the labor model.
The lack of consumption demand results in more competitive production. It can be argued that stimulus towards production capacity has only resulted in greater outputs with fewer and fewer costs... Most resulting from tech streamlines on both ends and outright automation.
Moar 'money' won't put the brakes on technology. It only enables our role within the formerly "human labor model" to be redefined in a direction that NO ONE in mainstream is addressing.
And short of the continued "subsidization of consumption" to enable growth, no one has a solution other than to imply temporary pre-obsolescent 'make work.'
The FED labor participation model is obsolete. The correlations are irrelevant and QE is a gift and enabler for the zealots of an unworthy economic religion.
Yellen can't solve our problems. The FED should be retired from trying.
Renew calls for moar endless free money and of course the crowd goes wild!
Breads, circuses.
Why should the Fed have $4T on the books, when they can have $8T on the books, right Janet?
There isn't an economy on this fucking planet that isn't down the shit hole, but markets are up - quality of life is getting better.
Janet's next move - writing checks to the F500 to keep their earnings up. Fuck revenue - meaningless.
They really have more than $4 trillion due to their mark to fantsy accounting.
All those euro swaps,etc mak for BS accounting.
Add in the gold they no longer hold. Germany wanted theirs back and they couldn't give it back. They have buy it in the open market.
"YELLEN SAYS QE TAPER DOESN'T MEAN REDUCED STIMULUS COMMITMENT"
"And sure enough, the only thing that matters for algos is that their interpretation of Yellen's rehash of the same comments heard thousands of times already, is that more stimulus from the Fed, i.e., the long-awaited untaper, may be just around the corner."
However, Yellen didn't say she was going to untaper. She said that tapering doesn't mean reduced stimulus commitment. She can taper to ZERO and stilll have commitment to stimulus, such as leaving the FED rate at ZERO, which is stimulus.
Or she can continue to provide money creation stimulus and not call it QE. Just call it something else and all the algos are fooled.
She needs to step down and start doing Wendy commercials:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ug75diEyiA0
Dove? Isn't it the seagull that shits on us?
I just don't understand... this (untaper hint) should be bullish for PMs, then why do they grind lower??
"YELLEN SAYS ECONOMY, JOB MARKET `ARE NOT BACK TO NORMAL HEALTH'"
Just redefine normal.
"Significant amount of decline in participation during recovery appears to be due to slack, a sign that Fed’s help can still be effective"
The FED's help hasn't been effective, except for the 1%. Those people are the FED's constituents. Those are the people the FED is seeking to help.
Peter Schiff had it right. Yellen can't stop. She'll reverse taper and print more.
More and more printing until the US dollar collaspes.
If Russia and China are smart they should work hard to collaspe the US dollar. Federal Reserve is doing everything it can to cause massive inflation
Obama has destroyed NASA and is dismantling the military. Russia and China can seize the opportunity the Fed is giving to take away the petro-dollar and the reserve currency status.
Nothing better than a run on a country's currency.
"Pool of 7m people who work part time and want full-time jobs is much larger than should be expected at 6.7% unemployment rate; this is sign that labor conditions are worse than unemployment rate indicates "
She should have mentined the ACA, as a reason for that.
Funny how the FED will complain about a lack of fiscal support (deficit spending) but will ignore the negative effect of a government program on the economy.
I can hardly disagree that the unemployment rate doesn't fully explain how drab the US economy and employment in the US really are. Most all of the gains were from 4 things.
1) Changing demographics means more people retiring
2) A slackening of disability qualification standards means more people are being declared permanently disabled than ever in history.
3) Of what few jobs that have actually been created, the vast majority are part time work.
4) More people giving up looking for a legitimate job opting for earning undeclared income or living off friends, family, and/or welfare & food stamps.
Your #1 is a myth and the data shows the opposite.
2,3, and 4 are spot on.
One thing she failed to say -- "Given the current economic conditions, we have determined that QE does not work."
Tire tracks all across her back we see can she's had her fun
crossdown traffic
one of these days ALICE its....crack and off to the moon
Yellen and everyone else on the Fed board of governors should have ALL of their wealth confiscated and be required to live on the US average wage for the period that they sit on the board.
In this way, they will have an opportunity to actually understand inflation.
Currently the useless Fed parasites are able to pretend ignorance of real inflation and real unemployment.
They can have their embezzeled wealth returned after their term is up. (Come to think of it, that is not a bad idea for politicians as well. They should only be allowed to enjoy their bribes after they leave office. This is a natural form of term limits.)
YELLEN SAYS FED TAKES ITS 2% INFLATION GOAL `VERY SERIOUSLY'
If she really did she would raise interest rates for starters. But we know she won't.
http://www.sovereignman.com/finance/us-now-spending-26-of-available-tax-...
The IRS collected $2.49 trillion in taxes last year (net of refunds). But of this amount, $891 billion was from payroll tax.
According to FICA and the Social Security Act of 1935, however, this amount is tied directly to funding Social Security and Medicare. It is not to be used for interest payments.
Based on this data, the amount of tax revenue that the US government had available to pay for its operations was $1.599 trillion in FY2013.
This means they actually spent approximately 26% of their available tax revenue just to pay interest last year… a much higher number than 17%.
...
http://www.sovereignman.com/finance/what-a-surprise-it-turns-out-they-li...
The GAO added up ALL the US government’s assets in 2013. Aircraft carriers. The highway system. Land. Cash and financial assets. The total is $2.97 trillion.
The liabilities, on the other hand, total $19.88 trillion. This includes the official public debt, plus all sorts of IOUs and loan guarantees.
This means the net EQUITY of the US government is minus $16.9 trillion.
Moreover, the US government’s cash position is a mere $206 billion… roughly 1.1% of its public debt. This isn’t enough to cover net interest payments for the next year.
...
You know what you gotta do assholes every last one of you to stop this shit once and for all. Whining ain't gonna cut it any longer or else it is more of the same and slow strangulation by the Toostie looking Yenta now.
You have to attack the beast sideways through the tax rolls..... No one likes the taxman when they are being fucked over by the entities they are collecting for.
Here is a novel idea.
Up until 1964 we were on a silver standard for everyday currency usage, with that said we can make some comparisons.
Let's take a 1932 - 1964 Washington Quarter which is 90% silver based on the most recent melt value is $3.60.
http://www.coinflation.com/coins/silver_calc.php
Here is the important point that coin is still legal tender and if you used it in the supermarket you could only purchase .25 cents of goods and services even though it is really worth $3.60.
The purchasing power for every quarter earned since they went off the silver standard for currency has been reduced by -1340% !?!?! FOR EVERY QUARTER EARNED REGARDLESS OF WAGES. That is stealth taxation through inflation without representation ass raping done to you by a private corporation called the Federal Reserve that doesn't answer to the American voter. Your government fucked you over and gave it to outside interests the second they allowed your labor to be pledged as collateral in return for someone else's funny paper to buy their debt to fund their spending sprees.
Take that even further in 1961 $1.25 was minimum wage. That $1.25 in silver standard quarters will purchase $18 worth of goods and services in todays dollars as opposed to $7.10 for minimum wage in today's dollar.
Fucking fix that and that will go a long way towards smoothing things over if you want to survive long term......
I think mathematics is going to be outlawed soon.
Stocks surge, while gold...
In other words, they have created a massive program for transfering wealth from the middle class to the wealthy. Then, in true Orwellian style they declare that they will continue with this program until the middle class is better off.
It's like pounding somebody with a stick while declaring "It's for your own good and I'm going to keep hitting you until your bruises go away".
Does she means that I can talk 'dirtier' while reducing stimulus down there so economy can still reach 'orgasm'?