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Summing Up Q1 Fundamentals (In 2 Simple Charts)
The disappointment on the faces of talking-heads everywhere is writ large as it appears Q1 2014 will be a flat quarter - the worst quarter in a year and a down one for the Dow. After promises of "as goes January" failed, and "it's just the weather", the promise of a magnificent H2 recovery remains firmly in traders' minds in spite of the total collapse in fundamentals during the last few months. Just how bad? Top-down economic data has plunged to its lowest in 19 months and bottom-up earnings forecasts... well, take a look...
Top-Down...
Bottom-Up...
h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer
Still believe it's all about fundamentals... and earnings are the mother's milk of stocks?
But... as a bonus chart, here is where the hope is...
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Right... bullish...
It's okay; it's just that the global economy, whether those economies of advanced or emerging markets, are on a nightly budget - as in an every night "ramen noodle" for dinner budget - thanks to the parasitic drag of the banking/financial leeches.
it's just because we had a COLD BAD MOTHER FUCKER of a winter...
it's going to be a COLD spring too..
QE, putting the Fun back in Fundaments for 6 straight years.
Good thing GDP will henceforth include massive amounts of newly created intangible intellectual property....and better weather.
I welcome the fact GDP has gone full-retard. In the past, I would think for 2 minutes before dismissing govt data as "propaganda". I have now saved 2 minutes.
Redux; "12 Apr 2011 - Weak trade data driving Hatzius' turn. ... A Little More Than A Week After Downgrading His Q1 GDP Forecast, Goldman's Hatzius Is Ready To Cut Again ..."
2011 and every year since.
How many more downgrades Hatzius???
How quaint. That Earnings and GDP have any correlation whatsoever to stock prices is simply an old wives' tale. S&P has a direct correlation to the ink and paper invoices at the (fed controlled) US mint. Any other purported S&P relationships are strictly coincidence.
"the promise of a magnificent H2 recovery remains firmly in traders' minds in spite of the total collapse in fundamentals during the last few months"
If it is all about the QE, it may be that the taper will continue, in order to bring the market back into line with the fundamentals.
Ive heard it was all that "frozen" shit, but the movie "frozen" was the biggest grosser this year?! Im confused!
CNBC told me that articles like this show that investors are still pessimistic which means the bull market will continue.
Who cares about that GDP nonsense, What the hell happened to the ads in the left and right margins for desperate women in UkrainianStan looking for American husbands who like long walk on beach, I have a what I call an outdoor livingroom in the backyard that was professionally hardscaped with a pool, http://climatevoices.files.wordpress.com/2010/06/bilde.jpg
"But corporate earnings are at all time highs." Don't worry about debt, in this world debt is an asset. Janet will keep rates low for at least the next 4 years, so don't worry, corporations can buy back their stock at or near all time highs. When they get in trouble they can just borrow more. Its all free money to those who can borrow forever at or near .5%. I personally love how steadfast the "FED" needs to have 2% inflation. That should truly cure everything. Can't they come up with something better than that. How about "we're going to make the Banks whole again so that if every mortgage in the USA went bad they the people who own us will be just fine." At least if they told the truth I'd have a little more respect for the actors at the FED.
"no, Putie no!!!!!!!"
I'm just glad to be long. I knew Yellin would backtrack after she screwed up at the last FOMC meeting. I just figured I would have to wait until the end of April for the next FOMC meeting, but the Fed couldn't let people think that their money might actually be at risk.
There is no risk, only reward. I love this brave new world that the Fed has created. Just close your eyes and BTFD and BTFATH.
Close your eyes and hold your nose and buy.
The federal reserve has distorted this market and can't let it normalize.
Until there is mass exodus out of th US dollar the debt keeps increasing and the Fed game continues.
exceedingly bullish, I wonder how many percent we will be up tomorrow in the indexes?