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S&P Hits New All Time High On ISM Miss, Employment Index Dropping To 9 Month Lows
Following the big plunge in January, the world's extrapolators have been exuberant over the snap-back from weather-driven anomalies... today, ISM dashed those hopes to some extent as the pace of the v-shaped recovery slowed notably and ISM missed expectations for the 3rd of the last 4 months. While new orders rose, employment fell to its lowest in 9 months. Of course this bad news is just what the doctor ordered and those oh-so-not-front-running algos just lifted stocks to a new all-time record high... imagine if it had missed by even more!
Not much of a pent-up demand driving bounce from the weather...
If you like your job, you can't keep your job...
The detailed index breakdown from the report:
From Bradley Holcomb, chair of the ISM:
"The March PMI registered 53.7 percent, an increase of 0.5 percentage point from February's reading of 53.2 percent, indicating expansion in manufacturing for the 10th consecutive month. The New Orders Index registered 55.1 percent, an increase of 0.6 percentage point from February's reading of 54.5 percent. The Production Index registered 55.9 percent, a substantial increase of 7.7 percentage points compared to February's reading of 48.2 percent. Employment grew for the ninth consecutive month, but at a lower rate by 1.2 percentage points, registering 51.1 percent compared to February's reading of 52.3 percent. Several comments from the panel reflect favorable demand and good business conditions, with some lingering concerns about the particularly adverse weather conditions across the country."
As yes, weather. No matter the temperature though, the goalseeked respondents couldn't be more giddy:
- "Seeing improvement in the overall economy. Hearing strong bookings in residential contractor and home repair work." (Paper Products)
- "First quarter business still strong." (Fabricated Metal Products)
- "Business beginning to heat-up, along with the weather." (Petroleum & Coal Products)
- "Business is good and we are optimistic that orders will continue to come in at a decent pace." (Transportation Equipment)
- "Year starting off very good. Outlook very bright for 2014." (Computer & Electronic Products)
- "Export orders are picking up — volume is improving although pricing, and thus profitability, are still challenged. Domestic business seems to be holding steady despite earlier predicted declines." (Chemical Products)
- "Short supply of hardwood lumber continues to challenge sales' ability to maximize volume targets. Demand is sound." (Wood Products)
- "Weather has created major delays on inbound materials and outbound sales. We need spring." (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
- "Economy is looking positive and commodities are stable." (Machinery)
- "Business continues to improve." (Furniture & Related Products)
Finally, and appropriately enough, the only commodity reported in short supply is Helium.
So whether it was the weather or not doesn't matter - you buy on good news as it confirms your bias and you buy on bad news as it reinforces the Fed's back stop. And why not - the Fed demands it.
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<---Hand me the lighter
<---Hand me the bottle opener
better wait for the next new ATH on Friday.....remember.....stick with the choreography (sp) this is all scripted. Every economic indicator will be perfect until nov 2016.
Fridays number will be one of two reports.........UE rate 6.9 and employment above exp. or UE rate 6.2 and employment below exp.
Remember, it is an "election" year.
Day #2 of the " FUKK YOU, MICHAEL LEWIS " ramping extravaganza.
LOP is correct.....these folks will do or say ANYTHING to win in november. the image painted will be 10X rosier than it really is....and every possible can will be kicked. sure, it'll make digging out far harder, but THEY DONT CARE.
look at the high end real estate market, look at private equity, the rich and the political class are buying real productive assets. They are selling public stock and dumping dollars. They are buying other currencies (diversifying) and buying physical PMs.
The central planners can keep the game going only as long as they can keep transferring all the risk to the dollar, which is what they have been doing in earnest for over five years now.
The truly wealthy know what's up.
Hang 'em higher!
No way. In hang'em High. He survived.
Why not both? (honestly, other people taking themselves out only makes things easier for my tribe and I).
When do we start considering that this statement may be accurate after all?
"Bulls can only hope that Birinyi is correct (and it's the stock that matters)..."
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-10/birinyi-short-sellers-have-lear...
What about the float-shrink? As insiders sell their shares in corporate "buy-backs" of course the price on outstanding stock goes up.
But how long can this go on? If they are getting zero-percent loans, then forever I guess.
If this case, all of the RISK is being transferred to the underlying currency.
In this case, it the all about the "full faith and credit" of the dollar now.
Specifically, no faith means no more credit motherfuckers...
hedge accordingly...
he is correct, in a completely manipulated "market"
when mathematics finally reclaims its gravitational constant and the HFT's fall in the forest, will anybody hear?
April's fool ?
no normal day !!
Anyone seen Hatzius?
next round of excuses for april-jun economic shit: high energy and food costs (but no inflation) from the winter weather are finally hitting the peasants.
Almost time to flip the script to- 'Unseasonably hot summer temps are to blame for the ongoing shitty economy'...however that's still good news though because it's free-money friendly which is the only thing that actually matters anyway.
El Nino.
Terminal melt up.
too bad we can't go back to paper actually.
it's not just the terminal either that's melting, but the processor, the networker, the communicator, the semantic primer, Mr meme, you name it.
I know I feel primed...but why buy again?
seems like analog is about to make a comeback.
Woooooooooo!!!
"So whether it was the weather or not doesn't matter - you buy on good news as it confirms your bias and you buy on bad news as it reinforces the Fed's back stop. And why not - the Fed demands it."
Correct.
I'm just glad you've gotten past your bitterness about that.
Pump Mr. Yellin! Pump!!
And up is down, left is right, and right is wrong. We are living in a bizarro world beyond comprehension where logic and rational thought have no home.
European PMI's and Yellen PMS (hypothetically), perfect for a ramp job!
Investors send market to new all-time high on market manipulation scandal perpetrated by politically connected scumbags bent on sucking the life blood out of every human polyp in the urban reef.
Never was being bearish so difficult.
DavidC
It really is truly amazing how long capital mis-allocation and mal-investment can continue isn't it?
David, you have been here longer than I have, and you clearly understand the markets. How in the world can you be bearish? I don't mean bearish on the real economy. I mean bearish on stocks. I am not trying to be a dick, just trying to understand. I was a perma bear when I came on here. But at some point two realizations settle in. 1) take what the market gives you. Don't fight it. 2) The day this thing ends, it will end on such a massive and violent scale that the bears will never see their day in the sun. Just my 2 cents, fwiw.
why not invest in tangible assests like the 0.1% are doing everytime they're able to sell their paper stawks?
"the day this thing ends, it will be on such a massive scale that the bears willl never see their day in the sun".
In fact bears may never see sun again, the way markets are going.
Powers that be = totally in control, mother nature= just waiting in the winds.
Problem is timing. Fonz threw in the towel last year, many about to do the same. This shit requires something seriously MaJOR to change. Agreed Fonz.
you may be right fonz, but there is also an argument for the oh shit moment, when the mkt. realizes economy sucks, buybacks are nearing an end, and the Fed is out of bullets, 4 trillion balance sheet and all... in which case we can easily get a 10-20% correction in a few weeks or even days
i wouldn't bet the farm either way... but there is alot of money waiting to jump ON the sidelines
Squid when we had the oh shit moment in 2008 there was an electronic run on the money markets. It was all over. If the fed had not stepped in and printed their asses off the shorts would have never seen a dime. So if we have another 2008, and the fed does not step in again, or they do but the market overwhelms them, It's gone baby, gone. So my point is not so much to bet the farm on the market, just not to bet against it.
agreed, but there is door #3 in between tanks in the streets and Dow 25,000... which is a healthy correction...
you could be right but that is where we differ. between the leverage built in the system and total lack of trust by "investors" who are all renters I believe anything greater than a 105 or so correction will morph into hell. but who knows man.
i have been preparing for that day as well, not enough but more than most... good luck
Yep...Dow will hit 17000 in 8 trading days if it remains on this pace - and why wouldn't it? The last 10,000 points has been based soley on Fed liquidity intervention...What's another 500 points.
Whew, I am glad that the FED is a private bank. We can't have all that huge FED balance sheet employing people and have it a part of the government.
That would be in-efficient....
Meanwhile gold is just about to fall apart.
Hhmmm, all my grams are intact.
perhaps you shouldn't have put yours so close to the nitric acid?
My bad. I put my gold near central bank.
yes, even worse...
put_peter
After beating the relic with hammers and other such implements of destruction, it is holding together..
PLEASE ADVISE....
I sold all my bullion yesterday. I'm done with holding the only asset that stands no chance of greater value in this huge fraud. This shit has already gone on for 3 years longer than I thought it could. In the end, those who crush metals daily will find a way to make PM's completely irrelevant as an asset. And for you non-believers, ask yourself what were the possibilities 5 years ago, that the Dow could be at almost 17000 with a deteriorating economy and world war 3 at our door step.
bad news is good news again?
when was it not ? oh i remember ... before the shalom and brooklyn yellen?
circus called market
Not worth watching anymore...they have decided the real economy will NEVER get better so they are going to drive this fake stock mkt shitt to infinity...better off watching porn and drinking...like gov't employees
Yes, get long black markets and sharecropping, beat the rush.
Once gold was slammed back under 1300, I expected the ramp up in stocks. April is the crucial month for stock momentum.
Ill take cheap Physical Gold all day...Thank you Market Gods..
I never seen before so desperately guarded even the slightest weakness in the market
is something big unavoidable coming and they now it?
Keep stacking.......Cases of Bourbon !!!!
Where is Putin?
In his sandbox playing with kids his own size. Putin tried to be a factor.
no Putie no!
Like I said a couple days ago on the 'Gotta pump S&P to dress up Quarter end' I said certainly the FIRST day of the new Quarter must be pumped as well.....always some reason every day to POMO pump the garbage higher.
Look at GM go! Recall? FUCK IT!
Yea like I mocked about yesterdays 'Uh Oh terrible news for GM!' article that the stock would probably go up 5%.
Keep buying that GM junk!
Dudes... What part of BUYBUYBUY didn't you get?
C'mon, All time highs don't make themselves... Oh wait...
Wait until Friday when we miss, beat, or hit the underemployment numbers. Wont matter which one it is, the market will be up another few percent.
Heyyyyyyy, fok!!! Der gunna shhhtim-u-late!!!!! FOK!!! Yeah, keep buying on the hopes of more easing via bad economic data.
Bad is Good. Didn't you hear Yellen yesterday. The Uber-Dove will print until inflation has destroyed everybody but the .01%.
It doesn't make sense. Right. Main St is being crushed by inflation, which hampers their ability to spend, which hurts the "consumer" driven economy. So, the FED's answer to this is to PRINT MOAR!, thus further pumping inflation, which further hurts main st, which further reduces spending, leading the FED to PRINT MOAR. It's economic death by a thousand monthly purchases. It will never end until they've utterly destroyed everyone. STOP FUCKING PRINTING AND JUST SHOOT US GODDAMNIT!
In related stories:
1. 7 million have magically signed up (no idea who paid) for Obamacare just under the wire
2. Benghazi was started by a protest over a video
3. You can keep your doctor if you like him
4. The IRS was not targeting / used as a weapon against conservative groups
5. Obamacare will save the average household $2500/yr
6. Illegals are being deported at record rates
7. This is the most transparant administration ever
8. This is the moment the seas stopped rising and the planet began to heal
9. There will be no lobbyists in this administration
10. Healthcare debate negotiations will be televised on CSPAN
11. Taxes WILL NOT increase for the middle class
12. Too tired.....here's the link http://obamalies.net/
Queue the crash talk:
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2014/04/01/stocks-are-nowhere-near-bubbly-valuation-territory-says-lpl-financials-kleintop/
If you apply voltage to a speedometer to make it read 200mph does that mean you're going fast?