ADP Jobs Miss For 4th Month In A Row; Job Market "Emerging From Deep Winter Slumber" Says Mark Zandi

Tyler Durden's picture

ADP employment change missed for the 4th month in a row, printing at 191k vs 195k expected. 191k is the average level of the last two years so the trend is not improving and we suggest that this is not enough to move the scale of the taper or un-taper decision for anyone ahead of NFP. On a side note none other than Deutsche's Joe Lavorgna was the highest estimate economist at a remarkable 275k - missing by a confidence-shattering 4 standard deviations.



Joe "The Outlier" Lavorgna:

Of course, the biggest irony is that people still take this report seriously. As we reported moments before the ADP release:

And sure enough, following the NFP revision higher, ADP also revised its February data from 139K to 178K. Before:


And after:


And while the ADP data integrity is absolute garbage, here it is for those who actually do care about goalseeked propaganda:


So how did ADP justify the fact that they were 28% off in the February number? Deep winter slumber. No, relaly.

Goods-producing employment rose by 28,000 jobs in March, slightly faster than an upwardly revised pace of 25,000 in February. Most of the gains came from the construction industry which added 20,000 jobs over the month; compared to an average of 16,000 during the prior three months. Manufacturers added 5,000 jobs in March, the same as February.


Service-providing employment rose by 164,000 jobs in March, up from the upwardly revised 153,000 in February. The ADP National Employment Report indicates that professional/ business services contributed the most to growth in service-providing industries, adding 53,000 jobs, slightly more than the 49,000 in February. Expansion in trade/transportation/utilities grew by 36,000, about equal to the 37,000 jobs added in February. The 5,000 new jobs in financial activities mark the strongest pace of growth in the industry since November 2013.


"The 191,000 U.S. private sector jobs added in March is slightly above the twelve-month average,” said Carlos Rodriguez, president and chief executive officer of ADP. “Hopefully, this could be a sign there is more growth to come.”


Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, "The job market is coming out from its deep winter slumber. Job gains are consistent with the pace prior to the brutal winter. The gains are broad based across industries and business size classes. Even better numbers are likely in coming months as the weather warms.”

And some more worthless charts:

Change in Nonfarm Private Employment

Historical Trend - Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment


Total Nonfarm Private Employment by Company Size



And a worthless infographic.


Infographic: ADP National Employment Report Shows 191,000 Jobs Added in March

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knukles's picture

It's whether or not the weather.


..... idly thinking random thoughts like whether the Krugster's got penis blisters, Chilean earthquake and all... must be painful ...

insanelysane's picture

The Establishment is happy so long as there isn't a collapse.  They gladly take the small ups and downs and herald it is victory.

Headbanger's picture

Wow!  4 sigma..    Far out man!

DavidC's picture

Silly, but funny!


101 years and counting's picture

Economics PhD has to be the only profession where the dumber you are, the more you get paid.  And when you really, really, fuck up, you get government bailouts or you are the gov't and you get to print money to cover over your fuck ups.  

AdvancingTime's picture

The recently released figures showing a strong decline in job formation over recent months may be more than a noisy statistic it may be an omen of danger ahead. This is a reminder that the task before Janet Yellen and the Federal reserve will be getting much more difficult. Not only does this call into question claims the economy has reached escape velocity but lends credence to claims by others like me that QE and artificially low interest rates are not the answer. 

These policies and massive government deficit spending can only carry a distorted economy so far. Expect this issue to come front and center in coming months as the Fed will come under increased scrutiny and experience increasing demands to defend their policies. More on this subject in the article below.

ebworthen's picture

Just enough to pretend the economy isn't completely in the shitter, but not enough (yet) to bail out Citi and do bail-ins.

This means it is just the right amount to slowly continue bleeding the middle class into extinction and running bullshit on the Nightly News about the "recovery" we all know never came - to keep us slogging to serfdom - to keep forging the chains of 21st century slavery.

Cursive's picture


Mediocre is the new Goldilocks!

ReactionToClosedMinds's picture

...."nightly news"......= daily dose of Pravda (bolshevik 'truth')

Cursive's picture



Even better numbers are likely in coming months as the weather warms.”

~ Mark Zandi


Save this for when the summer temperatures are hitting 100 and everything bad is blamed on the heat wave and/or drought.


knukles's picture

You've been "Mark Zandi'd"  Fuckers as bad as Tom Stopler.  And Paul Krugman.  While we're at it, Fuck Paul Krugman

ReactionToClosedMinds's picture

methinks Zandi is more propagandist (shill?) than 'analyst' or economist (which is his training)

adr's picture

Hey when welfare pays $40k a year with the added benefit of subsidized utilities, not even counting SS disability, is it any wonder people aren't going to work?

The only people getting jobs are the 65+ crowd because they can't make it on thier fixed income anymore.

In my SS statement it says if I am permanently disabled I'm eligible for $3200 a month. My grandmother only gets $1250 per month in standard SS.

If I divorced my wife for tax purposes and went on welfare, claimed disabilty due to depression, between the two of us we could easily pull in more than I make working. With EIC and child tax credits we'd be golden. We could also send our kid to a preschool we could only dream of affording thanks to government head start subsidies.

Fuck this country.

agstacks's picture

You had me at "fuck this country."

The_Ungrateful_Yid's picture

And if you were an illegal you would be getting a brand new truck for your "side business" of lawn mowing.

valley chick's picture

As always, bullshit is bullish!

medium giraffe's picture

Looks like the needle on the Standard & Poors Twatometer is stuck again.

Colonel Klink's picture

Mark Zandi, just another tribal member willing to lie directly to mislead from the truth.  That Mark Zandi?

Let me give the Obama regime a clue, it's Obamacare which is killing jobs, not some mysterious phenomenon known as "winter".

Colonel Klink's picture

Great way to phrase it Knucks.

Crawdaddy's picture

Mark Zandi is a saint who only lies on days that end in y.

I despise that toolish mofo. Moody's is a den of thieves and Zandi is the lead fluffer.

Jim B's picture

Agreed, Zandi is just another one of Obamzo's bitchez.

Bryan's picture

There's green shoots right around that corner. 

OK, maybe the next corner.

No, for sure, this NEXT corner!

NOZZLE's picture

Country needs 160, 000 a month just to account for population increase so let's all cheer for the robust recovery. 

Darkdoc's picture

There are 32,000 towns and cities in the US.  191,000 divided by 32000 towns is about 6 jobs per city (irregardless of size).  Most of them are part-time or low paid service jobs.

And that is what is called progress?

starman's picture

The construction jobs are the road workers funded by fed money for the states!

Its meaningless! 

q99x2's picture

Good. Looks like I won't have to feel guilty about not working again this year.

Yen Cross's picture

     The taper is a giant Fed. tightening facade for the masses anyways. We all know that there's no taper going on. The Fed. balance sheet has continued to expand in much larger amounts, Belgium being the 3rd largest holder of U.S. bonds, and these outragous reverse POMO sizes are proof of such.

   One has to wonder when these figures and facts will make it to the MSM?

Bernardo Gui's picture

Zandi is a garden-variety Keynesian and Obama Administration lap dog.  That's why he's the establishment favorite when the legacy media needs a bullish quote.