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What About The Dollar: Russia, Iran Announce $20 Billion Oil-For-Goods Deal
Spot what is missing in the just blasted headline from Bloomberg:
- IRAN, RUSSIA SAID TO SEAL $20B OIL-FOR-GOODS DEAL: REUTERS
If you said the complete absence of US Dollars anywhere in the funds flow you are correct. Which is precisely what we have been warning would happen the more the West and/or JPMorgan pushed Russia into a USD-free corner.
Once again, from our yesterday comment on the JPM Russian blockade: "what JPM may have just done is launch a preemptive strike which would have the equivalent culmination of a SWIFT blockade of Russia, the same way Iran was neutralized from the Petrodollar and was promptly forced to begin transacting in Rubles, Yuan and, of course, gold in exchange for goods and services either imported or exported. One wonders: is JPM truly that intent in preserving its "pristine" reputation of not transacting with "evil Russians", that it will gladly light the fuse that takes away Russia's choice whether or not to depart the petrodollar voluntarily, and makes it a compulsory outcome, which incidentally will merely accelerate the formalization of the Eurasian axis of China, Russia and India?"
In other words, Russia seems perfectly happy to telegraph that it is just as willing to use barter (and "heaven forbid" gold) and shortly other "regional" currencies, as it is to use the US Dollar, hardly the intended outcome of the western blocakde, which appears to have just backfired and further impacted the untouchable status of the Petrodollar.
More from Reuters:
Iran and Russia have made progress towards an oil-for-goods deal sources said would be worth up to $20 billion, which would enable Tehran to boost vital energy exports in defiance of Western sanctions, people familiar with the negotiations told Reuters.
In January Reuters reported Moscow and Tehran were discussing a barter deal that would see Moscow buy up to 500,000 barrels a day of Iranian oil in exchange for Russian equipment and goods.
The White House has said such a deal would raise "serious concerns" and would be inconsistent with the nuclear talks between world powers and Iran.
A Russian source said Moscow had "prepared all documents from its side", adding that completion of a deal was awaiting agreement on what oil price to lock in.
The source said the two sides were looking at a barter arrangement that would see Iranian oil being exchanged for industrial goods including metals and food, but said there was no military equipment involved. The source added that the deal was expected to reach $15 to $20 billion in total and would be done in stages with an initial $6 billion to $8 billion tranche.
The Iranian and Russian governments declined to comment.
Two separate Iranian officials also said the deal was valued at $20 billion. One of the Iranian officials said it would involve exports of around 500,000 barrels a day for two to three years.
"Iran can swap around 300,000 barrels per day via the Caspian Sea and the rest from the (Middle East) Gulf, possibly Bandar Abbas port," one of the Iranian officials said, referring to one of Iran's top oil terminals.
"The price (under negotiation) is lower than the international oil price, but not much, and there are few options. But in general, a few dollars lower than the market price."
Surely an "expert assessment" is in order:
"The deal would ease further pressure on Iran's battered energy sector and at least partially restore Iran's access to oil customers with Russian help," said Mark Dubowitz of Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a U.S. think-tank.
"If Washington can't stop this deal, it could serve as a signal to other countries that the United States won't risk major diplomatic disputes at the expense of the sanctions regime," he added.
You don't say: another epic geopolitical debacle resulting from what was originally intended to be a demonstration of strength and instead is rapidly turning out into a terminal confirmation of weakness.
Also, when did the "Foundation for Defense of Petrodollar" have the last word replaced with "Democracies"?
Finally, those curious what may happen next, only not to Iran but to Russia, are encouraged to read "From Petrodollar To Petrogold: The US Is Now Trying To Cut Off Iran's Access To Gold."
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This is why russia is in ukraine:
http://signalinea.com/keeping-frackable-gas-in-the-ground-is-what-ukrain...
It's funny seeing petrodollar-busting deals priced in dollars.
Very ironic WHAHAHAHA. Game over assholes!
Queing the chinese/iraninan/russian cyberterrorist attack on the HTF system that crashed the markets and led us into WWIII...
We're not the worst in the world for nothin, we have a reputation to uphold here.
How dare those "evil" empires of the east defy the circus that is the United States. Sad that more Americans will believe they are the bad guys. Fucking cows
Oil for Bitcoin!
ha ha ha
joke is on you, russia and iran
you have to have dollars in order to buy food and oil from each other
So Russia enters the "oil laundering" business openly.
Putin is definitely, though incrementally, going "all in". So far China has backed Russia, and India has so far, diplomatically at least, seemed to support Russia.
We won't recognize the political landscape in another few years. The crisis will not be allowed to happen, as far as the US oligarchs are concerned, until the middle class has been completely looted and are willing to accept sharecropper status. These actions abroad challenge that timetable.
These actions abroad challenge that timetable.
exactly...... the west is living off its fat... and what reagan achieved has been wasted away by both the subsequent left and right polititcal sons of whores.... what they have not seen is the inevitable and obvious.... and the collective west not only fail to see, but further in their attempt to convert the best system in the world into a sharecropper system...(by an evil alliance between banksters and politicians) basically have motivated and caused so that the rest of the world has arrived at this deal..... (culminating with the M@TWH.... whose participants are not only evil, stupid, or both)
furthermore..... the on-going growth of a middle class in all these other countries will simply erase the 300 mil (plus) "consumer market" the USA has been relying on..... let's see..... china.... india.... russia..... etc. etc etc.... populations.... (emerging middle class ? or even if these countries become dictatorships/oligarchies (call them what you will) the point is... they are potentiall larger consumers than the USA..... and oh.. btw who is manufacturing what ?
key words..... time schedule of these changes..... things are happening much faster.....
Reagan did not achieve anything. None of his initial campaign promises were realized. He did not abolish the Fed or return to the Gold Standard.
HE WAS SHOT BECAUSE OF THAT.
The White House was run under George HW Bush for TWELVE YEARS.
Stop the BULLSHIT Red Team/Blue Team garbage.
Go sell that illusion elsewhere.
another epic geopolitical debacle resulting from what was originally intended to be a demonstration of strength and instead is rapidly turning out into a terminal confirmation of weakness.
Totally missed the mark on this one. All is going according to plan. The actors we have playing world leaders are good at convincing us they are stupid, but they are not. The effect of the JPM transaction block would have been anticipated by anyone who doesn't sit in front of the TV all day. Obviously it's not about the $5,000.
It's about giving Russia a leg to stand on, which is all we've given them this entire scenario. Consider that if the West had not thrown a coup that Russia would not have Ukraine. The West set these wheels in motion deliberately.
Since JPM is an arm of the Fed, and since the Fed answers to Basel, not the USA, they have no reason not to apply pressure wherever profit dictates. Now that the East has all the gold, I expect more internal "uh, did I do that?" efforts to undermine the USD which has served its purpose for globalization. The elite are ready for the next phase.
Correct! The illusion is to believe the FED acts to protect the dollar, instead of realizing the destruction of the petro-dollar is what its globalist masters demand and fiat currencies deliver. Like any race, the race to the bottom needs a leader.
Accordingly, war with Russia, Syria, Iran or whoever will do. Peace is such a drag on profits. So a wider regional or perhaps world war is in order. KBR and Reytheon can continue to suck off the public tit; collecting fantasy notes that can be converted into real money, gold/silver.
Meantime the wider conflict can be used to further separate the consumer from their duties as a citizen patriot. It also acts as the perfect set up to muzzle dissenters and lock down the homeland; squeezing the last breath out of our Constitutional Republic.
And the deluded, jingoistic American people shout USA, Usa, usa.
Please Visit: Inflection Point
The conspiracy theorist in me can't help but think there has to be some genius nwo tactician knew these consequences would come and are accelerating the dollar's death.
isnt killing the dollar the whole point....where its just a matter of whom will get blamed???
http://stateofthenation2012.com/?p=4614
*
Obama’s Ukraine Fiasco Will Trigger US-EU Economic Ruin…I agree it appears we did instigate the situation in the Ukraine. I'd go further and wonder if anyone instigating had actually thought out a desireable or even feasible outcome.
Its very unlikely Russia would give up the Ukraine considering its considerable huge interest in gas pipeline pumping their gas through the country. Its unreasonable even to expect they would give that up since its worth a lot economically to the Russian economy some tens of percents of it. So what the hell was the plan or pipe dream and more concerning was there was no plan or the undertaking was a delusional undertaking? Isn't anyone with a brain running this stuff?
The only feasible answers to quibbling and allowing Russia to "keep" what they take in Ukraine is to bring up the conversation with regards to whether anyone will or won't act against Russian geographic expansion. Perhaps a few phone calls could have served that hypotherical end better.
So far the alledgedly sorta heavily Neo-fascist western (for the moment) part of Ukraine appears it will be more broke than ever without Russian gas pipeline economic support, the gas still flows or can be shut off at will by Russia as before, Europe has gained nothing but the opportunity to inadequately support the new member of the European Union Whats-left-of-Ukraine.
It seems like incompetent bumbling by incompetent diplomats with no intelligent input from any intelligence agency (who are too busy collection scads of useless data tapping countries phone lines and playing with the internet to do any intelligence anymore...) The 'administration' would seem to either be cohort with the bumblers, i.e., just idiots too, or worse is not performing any executive function whatsoever.
What the hell was the plan if there was one by the U.S. or do we just screw around with a lost cause to see if we might luck out some unknown way sorta adlibbing global policy. Seems dangerous due to basically relying on unintended consequnces from the get go.
The extent depth and totality of human ignorance and stupidity and just plain lack of any plan never ceases to amaze.
WHoever these morons are behind the Ukraine Muddle, they have to go.
Absolutely top shelf comment..."too late, we're going in." One look at the current situation says to me relative to Ukraine "Putin ain't got shit." He got baited into Crimea...and now he's trading oil for...oil?
"Persian Rugs"? I mean...wtf does Iran make that Russia doesn't already? And the answer of course is a full on push into Leba-none proper and Hezbollah.
Once NATO goes all in into Ukraine and the Russian people discover not only tis a "fait accompli" and there is NOTHING that can be done to turn this back...you have to hit back in the Middle East.
That completes my crystal ball I'm afraid not least because I am simply completely ignorant of the region en toto...but outside of Libya fail to see...is this serious?...something "formalized"?
The existence of Israel is an affront to the Islamic world. This is a pure guess but once we go in heavy into Ukraine (taking Kalingrad, pushing hard the separatists in Crimea, start trying to undermine Putin himself) I think there would be a probability of total war between a lot of Islam and the West.
Mali is already a problem. If "Europe" goes all in on Libya...look out.
Trouble I have with this kind of barter is why does Russia need oil? They already are exporting quite a bit of it elsewhere.
You've answered your own question.
The colonized countries of Zion are not happy with the outcome, Crimea was a miscalculation. Russian encirclement is proving much more tedious than expected. If you have doubts consider the position of Cheney and company, they need Russia defeated and their timeline is being distorted and it is causing them to rush into plans. Syria was a setback, Iran was to have been conquered by now, all setbacks.
The USD is to be replaced with the IMF issued super fiat, do you think barter deals outside of the fiat system are part of the plan?
When you say the elite are ready for the next phase the question is, which elite are you referring to? Which faction of power?
Things within the Matrix are amiss, a few wildcards thrown in from the 'gods', Greek mythology style, have wreaked havoc with the outcomes.
Jim Willie - of interest.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4eYiyasVwUM&feature=em-share_video_user
1. The Ukraine turmoil and Russia and China's coordinated Financial and Commercial Response to the threats of the West led by the US
2. Though most of the Non-Western world is backing Russia, there are 3 countries in particular that will play a key supporting role in this new 'cold war', and at least two of these have been strong allies of the US in recent times.
3. Jim gives his insight into what he sees happening to US treasuries and the US dollar, and the Petrodollar in the short and long term.
4. Jim forecasts a 'Split' dollar, a domestic dollar, and dollars held outside the US will become 'International' dollars.
5. The pressures that Jim sees placed upon the Domestic dollar and it's near instantaneous 33% devaluation (to start.)
6. The coming BARTER System for settlement of international trade, reducing the US dollar to the dustbin of history.
Nope, not barter, another reserve currency taking USD's place and clearing system taking SWIFT's place, leaving America on the outside looking in for the first time in 70 years.
-lololol...
hope you are manufacturing something so you can go sell to the emerging.... er.. consumer market......
meanwhile......
go take yer meds......
does America have any other technique in its diplomatic playbook other than 'outraged indignance'?
beats up every kid in the playground then gets angry why no one will play with him.
We like to steal their lunch money too.
Maybe time then RU to leave the debt based money system entirely, and create their own money without perpetual interest payment on it's mere existence.
Sentiment is appreciated...tis impossible to do I'm afraid.
Those Russians pining for "turning inward" cannot do so relative to Ukraine. This is just too emotional...like the US Civil War.
"We killed so many of each other because we loved each other so much and had so much in common."
In russian papers they are entertaining selling oil&gas in rubles.
I think powers that be know what is coming, hence the escalation; hoping to create leverage in future negotiations.
But I am not sure if Russians really want to negotiate with a party they don't trust.
no you don't, an instrument of circulation is just there to facilitate trade, it can be credit or money, and money can be electrum, gold or silver coins, fiat money also called forced currency in the XIX century, sea shells, bitcoins, whatever people find convenient. When fiat of one country, it creates big problems, see Jacques Rueff
A lot of stupid people don't get the "ha ha ha" part I suppose.
I agree and it's funny to realize that they will be the enemy for no other reason than wanting to use a currency or money other than the dollar. Just ridiculous to ponder, but that is the insanity that we find ourselves besieged with.
Much like the American people being considered criminals if they pay with cash or possess Liberty Dollars.
"I cut alone, me and my good buddy guillotine."
what if they had a war and nobody came?
Well, it was fun while it lasted.
They're just rubbing it in.
This is the Russian reality that will ultimately have to be addressed.
http://www.bing.com/images/search?q=Current+World+Population+Growth+Rate&Form=IQFRDR&adlt=strict#view=detail&id=FCDF7FC0E13881B8BD239E29F0320CA1522BFEBC&selectedIndex=3
...sure, this will take the next 10 to 30 years to play out, but Russia can not continue to
a. have a declining percentage of world population,
b. have so much darn land, and
c. have an increasing significance in world economics...
....all at the same time. (on a long term horizon)
That's what was said 30 years ago when the US was burning 24% of global oil production with 4% of the population.
Now it burns 25% of global oil production with 4% of the population.
I'm not anti-Russia in any sense...but in the long term, demographics are not irrelevant. I believe that this "western" attack on all things Soviet is absurd and that we will all be losers in this absurd battle. Including, most importantly, the Ukrainian people.
Even Japan...those people with the ability to improve on anything, can't hide from demographic realities.
The US consumes 25% of the global oil production for one reason....oil is traded in our fiat currency, that we can invent. We will continue to consume oil in this fashion until that changes. It's not a direct function of demographics.
The Jewish population faces the same long term demographic realities if that makes everyone feel better.
Meh.
a. England had a small population relative to the world during its heyday in the 19th century, and it dominated the globe.
b. Nukes are a great deterrent.
Be aware, populations haven't always been smoothly growing in all countries at all times, some places (like Ireland or ancient China) went through catastrophic population collapses (multiple times!) before re-growing again, and a declining population for a generation is not an indication of terminal decline into nothingness. If social conditions and the spirit of the times change, as they easily could, growth rates could turn up into 1%+ and we both know how powerful compounding is.
Hell, look at black Africa for evidence of that (pop. 70 million after World War 1, pop. well over a billion today and the average woman there still pushing out 5-6 children all across the continent). That's at least 15x population growth in just 1 century.
It's definitely a problem for Russia but it's not the apocalyptic scenario that I've heard many Americans proclaim it to be, with so much schadenfreude.
A historical difference this time is that many of the largest populations are not self suficient and would suffer a major collapse (+90%) if the global supply chain breaks down. Let's take your africa example, the population used to be 70M because that is what the infrastructure there could support, people had babies they just unfortunately did not survive. Today africa requires significant food aid from other continents to feed itself. What happens when dollar breaks down and the US/EU can bearly support itself, food aid stops because the US will feed itself first, what happens to africa then?
When food aid breaks down, the Africans will riot. In New York, Chicago, Philly, LA, Miami and everywhere else.
I nominate myself to go to Russia immediately and begin the repopulation efforts with their lithesome natives. It is the just and right thing to do.
When do the planes leave?
Malaysia Airlines has daily flights to Moscow.
The size of the population does not matter much. The quality does. Look at India vs Japan as an example.
And in the US a large part of the population is obese, illiterate and boxed in with McDonald in front of the box.
Maybe they're rubbing it out?
Yes, it is.
Even when currencies disappear people still remember/use it as unit of account.
ah, so this explains why Gold and Silver phony paper prices r doin what theyre doin at the Comex close...
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html
Nothin' like the threat of WWIII to knock a few dollars off the price.
All wars are bankers' wars. This one will be to rescue the central-banking cartel and its monetary system.
Rescue or convert?
If Russia does begin to exchange good, or their currency for oil with Iran it WILL start WWIII. The Oil and Banking Cartels will not allow that to happen.
Muammar was such a good little boy, reforming and helping with the lore on terror and all. Then he asked that his oil be purchased with his gold backed dinar.
Uncle Scam feigned R2P and brought out the Minions Brittan/France to decimate the country.
But it is good and right, as the American consumer consents to it.
END THE FED!
Inflection Point
Yep just like these Confederate Notes I been savin.....gonna trade em for some U.S. Treasuries I rekin!
I noticed this as well. However, I wouldn't know what a Ruble is worth, I don't even know what Irans currency is. So I guess listing in US$ makes sense, and really makes it possible for them to show an international finger!
About time somebody starts demolishing the US stranglehold on us all.
The Iranian currency is the Moskit.
The deal is not about dollars.
It's about busting the sanctions and taking away the only excuse Obama had for not bombing the Iranian nuclear facilities. "Just let the sanctions have time to work" no longer is in play.
The Saudis will demand bombing now.
That being said, 500K bpd is $50 million per DAY. $300 million/month. Iran will laugh at the sanctions.
Yes, and JPM played its part well. I am sure that the O'Bummer has sent his congrats to Jamie for throwing out the first dominoe. I am sure that JPM willl get some lucrative pipeline financing contracts in exchange down the road.
If I was a friend of Jamie's I wouldn't be standing too close to him now.
Just sayin'
Ah yes..., the old splatter affect.
Splash damage.
Indeed. But Oblunder doesnt care what the outcome is, as long as press doesnt reveal any facts, he can continue to dumb shite until he can declare marshall law.
This my friend is the whole truth, nothing but the truth
why isnt the next move to give iran nuclear missiles rather then build them in Iran ?
seems obama is unraveling everything across the board - europe increasingly at risk for what upside ?- when will germany say stop?
JIM WILLIE: Ukraine is the Waterloo Event for the U.S. Dollar
http://www.silverdoctors.com/jim-willie-ukraine-is-the-waterloo-event-for-the-us-dollar/
Please, it's just an estimate based on the current Ruble:Dollar conversion.
The point being, how do you "price" something no one wants?
The Russians seem to be quite happy to accept many other forms of payment.
The "dollar" value of those deals should increase significantly as people continue to dump the dollar. Currencies never "die" in a deflationary death spiral as the average person benefits from increased purchasing power.
The deals are priced in dollars but the dollar is not used in those deals in shape or form or derivatives or what have you. In other words, the forced currency, as the monetary thinkers of the XIX would call it is repudiated.
YOU HAVE YOUR ANSWER FOR THE GOLD SPIKE TODAY.
It would be better for all concerned if there were alternatives to the U.S. dollar. The petrodollar regime requires us to run big current account deficits so the world has enuf dollars to trade with. But we're not doing as much of that lately, deficits are shrinking. $ will likely rise if nothing changes.
Yeah, no kidding. Once the petrodollar goes the dollar is toast. Slobama is just speeding up the process. Slobama needs to learn what to do when you find yourself in a hole: Stop digging. Also, never play chess with a Russian. Putin is at least 3 moves ahead of Slobama.
As these non Petro$$ deals unfurl in public, it looks like a lot of this was quietly in place for some time now. So much for the Exceptional Bullying of the USSA.
Vlad, a man after my own heart!! Barter brother, barter!!!
There are so many upsides to bartering and very few tangible downsides!! And if you can't barter with me, will take gold as payment too!!
The BEST part of bartering for all of you out there that might raise an eyebrow to it.........no taxes!!!! Enough said!
One problem with this barter trade is that Russia doesn't need the oil, they export their own.
Ahh but that's the point, they need to diversify their economy, and this will do it!!
Vlad will take the oil at $25 per barrel, resell it to the west at $100 USD denominated adjustment, plus "juice" his economy in whatever these "goods" are? Probably oil field parts, repairs, heavy equipment, military hardware, etc!!
The fucking US better be careful here, India, Brazil, Venezuela, China and 25-50 other Countries would love this kind of energy for goods and services deal, it will cut out US inflationary pressure on their local currencies and revalue energy for the developing world, while allowing Russia to import cheap goods and services as well as diversify their economy and still sell oil at US adjusted and inflated prices to the West!!!!
dup...
so what is obama's upside as each countermeasure - all of which have long term core economic implications - takes hold?
Vlad will take the oil at $25 per barrel, resell it to the west at $100 USD denominated adjustment
That's EXACTLY what I would do. Buy it cheap from Iran and sell it high, all day long, to the morons in the west at a pretty markup.
Agreed, but knowing how the Russian oil business works and considering that Iranian oil is still under sanctions, I bet it will be a slight variation - Russia will consume the Iranian oil internally at its refineries and then either consume or export the resulting oil products to other nations (that way it also captures the refining margin). It will also export more of its own oil.
I agree, either way its a win win for Russia and a pretty sweet deal for a Country like Iran frankly, all the while seperating the Western pricing mechanism for energy from this new paradigm!
The really fun moment in all this will be, when a Country like Turkey or another member of NATO says they want the "Russian Deal" for energy pricing, not the US/EU pricing, then we will see some sparks fly, won't we!!
You know Vlad buys his energy extraction widgets from the US, or he did...
Russian Energy Denied Goods as U.S. Exports Suspended
Coupled with a lack of banking facilities to trade with the West he might struggle to sell his additional energy resources at a decent margin. Iran may be just playing the US for a better deal.
It isn't a problem as much as the underline beneath Fuck You America and the Autocue spokesman that got kicked out of Saudi Arabia in two hours.
Alaska is looking tempting to Vlad right now.
Maybe he can trade ice to the Eskimoes.
Right now he can sell a ketchup popcicle to an Eskimoe woman in white gloves.
And make the USSA look stupid while doing it.
The procedure would be to mix Iranian oil shipped northward on the Caspian into pipelines carrying Russian oil. The resultant oil would be a combination, sold to the EU. Every Single Day. The EU has no sanctions on Russian oil. They would buy.
The question is will the Russians cut their own production 500K bpd to offset the Iranian flow and fund themselves with a commission placed on the Iranian barrels (which is likely what the "price would be less than international price" is all about. Russia will pocket the difference to compensate themselves for reduced production.
This would mean no extra supply on the market so no pressure on price.
And of course it busts the sanctions and puts Iranian nuclear development back on schedule, and deprives Obama of his excuse not to bomb. "Just let the sanctions have time to work" no longer plays.
Hey Crash,
See my post below - I doubt Russia would mix the oil - I think instead the Iranian oil will be segregated in Russian storage and earmarked for internal consumption. This frees up an extra 500kpd of Russian oil for export. And, like you pointed out, I'm sure that the Russians are effectively getting the Iranian oil at a discount (call it the fee the Iranians have to pay to be able to get around sanctions) which means Russian refiners should do well - replacing domestic oil with Iranian oil that's a few $/bbl cheaper. Those few $/bbl go straight to the bottom line.
I think it's a pretty smart deal, for both sides no less, and it makes a mockery of Western sanctions.
Is the Iranian oil the same quality as the Russian? If I recall Persian oil is heavy, nasty shit. It would take more effort to refine it, wouldn't it? That has to be figured in there somewhere.
It gives Iran an international outlet. It also provides them with moral and financial support.
And it gives them access to everything they want, almost without exception! And that includes nuclear technology I would think.
Nice kick in your own backside, O$ama! An individual of remarkable talent, after all.
It would also empty their chairs at any further sanctions negotiations.
And, I guess Israel will now have to think many many times, before they launch an attack on Iran.
There might just be some new MIGs lining up to greet them.
Speaking of MIGs: Gold cannot remain in low orbit for much longer. The US$ card house will not withstand much disturbance.
IMHO it's all part of 'the plan' obama agreed to with vlad when after the election he would be 'more flexible.'
"I guess Israel will now have to think many many times, before they launch an attack on Iran."
I think that you are exactly 100% wrong. This makes bombing a more predictable option. The previous option, sanctions, has been proven to have failed.
And that does not even bring the dollar protection pressures that will coalesce.
The Russians will burn the Iranian oil at home in Russia, and it frees up more of their own oil for export.
And being the wily wheeler-dealers that they are, I'm sure the Russians are getting a good implicit discount on the Iranian oil that they're buying, it's the fee the Iranians will have to pay for access to the market.
In the oil business, traders do this all the time. One guy might have barrels to move but no transport, another might have unused space on a pipeline but no barrels available to fill the space that he paid for. The two team up and split the profits. Each guy gets what he wants.
So, say that the Iranians are selling their oil to Russia at a discount of $5 to what would be a fair market price (not unrealistic). Once you net it all out it means that Russia gets to increase the net margin on 500,000bpd of its own oil exports by $5/bbl, and they just refine and burn the cheaper Iranian oil at home. That's pretty big.
When the megasanctions on Iran were first announced last year or the year before or whenever it was, I thought to myself, How long will it take before some other oil-exporting nation steps up and does a deal like this? It would have to be the Russians, no one else would do it. And now it's come to pass.
It smells like central planning to me, that always works.
Well, maybe.
The key to most of the affair is that the total number of barrels on the market not increase (and maybe drop some to offset any Libya improvement) so that the price stays high.
Russia has to keep their exports flat or down to force price up.
Wrong! What has happened in Ukraine has nothing to do with either gas or energy at all. It is mostly about 62 years old $40 bln worth multy- billionare Putin with almost absolute power now considering how he is going to be seen in History by Russians. Putin has everything, a little bit bored, a little bit tired, mostly fed up with the West benting him over for long 2 first of his terms. He has more valuable things to accomplish - to become Vladimir the Great. Now, after Crimea even I, a long and strong opponent of Putin would not support sending him to jail. And if he makes the Russian-speaking South and East of Ukraine to separate - I will put his photo on the wall. And if he brings back ethnically Russian Nothern Kazakhstan and Eastern Estonia back - he will be Great. Anyway, don't look for economic or material reasons, it is completely political, national or geo-political. NATO and the US with the EU have crossed the thickest possible red line in Ukraine, it must never be hostile to us, we fought for this for centuries and experienced being on the brink of existence during polish invasion in first years of Romanov dinasty.
I think you need to lay off the US government propaganda, and meth.
what do you mean saying propaganda? what is it mentioned anyway, I know reality over here. all 14 years of his rule Putin was weak and serving the USA, in Cremea he defended Russian interests for the first time. In Ossetia there are signs decision to respond to Georgian agression was made by Medvedev under pressure of Russian military.
Right. A bunch of gas that will bleed off in a few years, meanwhile Russia has decades worth of conventional oil and gas.
Makes perfect sense. L O L
frack me
frack me
"Never let a crisis go to waste"!
Kinda looks like they blew the shit outa this one!
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Stupid Iranians. Goods aren't backed by anything.
Wait, what?
Getting closer.... WOAR! coming soon!!
And it's quite possibly going to be a civil war. What happens if the dollar cracks up and EBT no longer puts food on the table? I got to watch some civil unrest in my very own hometown with my very own eyes on Sunday night. This was over the use of excessive force by police, brought to a head by the shooting of a homeless crazy guy. What's going to happen if Russia et al destroy the dollar?
The thought of Americans turning upon each other in an orgy of violence ... hmmm, well, there is a kind of justice in there, somewhere.
I expect you are a nice guy, but something in your Country is 'effin' evil.
Problem is, the people who are just now waking up to what our country has become and who are not happy are likely to be among those who pay for it. (Same for WWIII, cause that'll likely go nuclear, but that's another story.) Will those who perpitrated the evil be punished? Who knows.
I'm a nice guy, too.
But, I'm guilty of standing by while the same sort of shenanigans have been enacted here.
If it kicks off, I'm hoping to nail a few bureaucrats before I go.
Patrick Henry said "I fight for Liberty so that my children won't have to".
Re-phrased it might sound like this, "I'm taking those crony fuckers with me when I go so they're not around to harrass my children without me there to protect them."
Who says old folks are useless? What better life purpose than to take out a terrorcrat or two on the way out?
Those people back then were so smart,what happened ?
Baby Boomer suicide bombers!!!
We'll even throw in 69 virgins, and some Cialis in case your ED follows you to the afterlife.
Do not blame the dog...blame the master.
Do not blame the gun, Blame the master.
Fixed it for you ;)
RIPS
"The thought of Americans turning upon each other in an orgy of violence..."
It's da plan boss, da plan!
All you sheeple stand here on these railroad tracks...see that train a coming at 1,033 miles an hour right at you...whatcha gonna do?
Sad to have watched this all happen over time. Chaos laying it's evil seed to generate into satan's divide and conquer methodologies. Sad to watch the nations all fall to that which controls them all. Sad to see men who are all brothers battle each other so the puppet masters will profit, and then to turn around to eventually kill them all in a night of long knives. Sad to see that Love has been replaced by greed, avarice, sloth, and a daily desire to be Godless.
At root is the problem if a total lack of proper instruction. Without it, a society, a world runs rudderless and there can be no escape from the falls of eternity and death. A society that choosees to live in ignorance, will perish by the same. There is a chance to save what most of all of civilization might consider valuable. it begins with right-up edumacation, and proper instructions. May we give thanks to the Most High for that Light that flows here freely, and unobstructed by babylon's deceptive whores and mongrel ingorancemongers.
Sad, but predestined.
" What's going to happen if Russia et al destroy the dollar?"
Russia has nothing to do with that, piggy, greedy politicians and bankers did that on their own!
You're right, it would go down on it's own. But I do see them actively trying to speed up the process. We did the same to the USSR, which would have failed anyway without our help. We just brought it's demise about a few years earlier. Proximate cause vs ultimate cause.
Maybe they're just trying to get out of the way of the slow motion train wreck.
Russia can't destroy the dollar. Only the American leadership can destroy the dollar.
They already did
I hear APD had Bearcats and swat with M4's on their chests vs a little rock throwing. The militarization of the police should concern us all.
Yup. There was an unsavory element to that crowd, i.e. hood rats. They were doing stupid shit earlier in the day before I got there, like graffiti and jumping onto the hoods of people's cars because they dared to make a wrong turn. They cornered a couple of cops and smashed their car up a bit. Instead of nipping that shit right then and there, they called in everybody they could. Later, when the tear gas went off, the ghetto rats ran like scared little children. They're tough until somebody calls their bluff. Which tells you that the overwhelming militaristic response by police wasn't necessary. Watching the cops roll down Central to tear gas the first group of protesters was like watching troops being sent into a war zone.
I'm not a fan of the police, but I'm also not a fan of angry mob type violence. It rarely results in anything positive.
Release the drones!
Here we go-.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=04F4xlWSFh0
$20 Billion? Run for the Hills?
How big is the global market for goods and services? 200 Trillion? 600 Trillion?
Give ya a hint, it gets exponentially bigger every year. Until it doesn't.
GDP is funny like that. We use one good to value other goods.
Print a metric shit ton of the unit of account but pretend it doesn't affect GDP.
pods
Yeah, but as soon as the action starts occurring at the margins, all other players have to take note and decide where their future lies.
Never underestimate the spark that lit the prarie fire. Activation energy provides some of the best ROI there is. Especially if you position yourself appropriately before the herd smells the smoke.
World GDP is $75tn.
Cut out financializtion, and its prolly $45tn.
Only one snowflake can start an avalanche.
I don't have last years exact number, but world GDP is in the neighborhood of 75 trillion diluted US dollars. Of course when you take out debt spending and all the other garbage that goes into it, it is less.
Two words: trial balloon.
If it works out, it will only get bigger.
You guys are missing the point.
Sanctions were Obama's and the EUs only excuse not to bomb Iran's nuclear development program.
"Be patient. Just give the sanctions a chance to work. They'll come begging."
Now they won't come begging and Iran WILL get nuclear weapons.
The Saudis are going to be screaming into telephones all day long.
If everyone had nuclear weapons, wouldn't that keep the peace?
The more who have nukes, the more likely you're either going to have one of them misinterpret another's actions and push the button, or that one of the people in control will be a complete nutter who is willing to push the button. MAD works when there is at least some semblance of sanity (read: self preservation) amongst those who control the button. The problem with nukes isn't that the secret is how to build them, the secret is that they work, and that cat's outta the bag.
Not sure this is true. The only time nuclear weapons have been used to murder civilians was when the other side didn't have them.
Nutter Netanyahu
Gonna be a hell of a world when Saudi Arabia, Taiwan, South Korea and Japan all get nukes and then suddenly we turn around to see South Africa has them, Germany has them, etc., etc. Then we'll see who has the balls to cut other people's gas off, raise oil prices so high they are obscene, want to butt into other countries' internal politics, want to play World Cop, etc. because EVERYBODY will be walking on egg shells at that point. Everybody....because it only takes one nuke to ruin your day. In a way it might even force a very uneasy peace that has a sense of balance to it. Example: if North Korea acted the fool they could be blown to hell and gone by South Korea, Japan and the U.S. China then would be forced to keep a better eye on their problem child. You get the drift.
Suppose someone's gas gets cut off because there just isn't enough to go around.
It's a levered up fractional reserve (& paper multiple of physical) ponzi scheme, if you withdraw 20 billion the impact is a multiple of 20 billion, and more importantly it opens the door to copycats who didn't want to the first to cross that line.
What do you call it when one trades excess productivity for excess productivity? Oh yeah-- an economy.
Technically it's barter.
Say, isn't barter the money of peasants?
They've left the debt money of slaves, the US Dollar and are traveling a level up...
If memory serves, the next two levels are silver ... and gold.
USD trades $4T per day.
That's a cute little trade you got there Putin.
This fucker has nothing to lose Barry, so don't fuck it up like everything else you've fucked up to date.
See above. This is not about number magnitude.
This is about busting the sanctions and Iran getting nukes. Sanctions were the excuse not to bomb Iran.
The Saudis are going to be angry.
I don't agree. I believe this is the intended outcome all along. It didn't backfire; it's going acording to plan rather smoothly.
As always, it's a question of whose plan is being considered.
Why am I not allowed to vote on some comments?
can't do it if the comment begins with a /em tag , a /sarc tag is fine but the coding doesn't like comments that begin with italics.
Must be time to liberate the Iranian people from their oil.
OUR oil.
Oh snap --- of course, what was I thinking.
Holy shit, O has killed the petrodollar.
Awesome sauce. Cannot wait till the 90% of FRNs that are outside the US come flooding back.
I say we cram them down all the FED bankers throats until they are full.
pods
Well, at least they'll finally get the inflation numbers they've been after.
That occurred to me too. A touch too much perhaps, though.