China General Says "War With Japan Increasingly Likely" As Russia Conducts New Army Drill Near Latvia, Estonia

Tyler Durden's picture


Out of sight, out of mind. That appears to be the status quo on events unfolding in Ukraine, and along the western Russian border for now where, however, things are just as agitated as they have been during the past month. Only this time, not so much next to Ukraine, where the Russian army already has a massive enough military presence to steamroll into the country at a moment's notice, but up north, in this case in the Pskov region where the Russian ministry of defense reported that a major military drill is taking place, right next to the Estonia and Latvia borders. Just in case the former USSR member states needed to be kept on their toes.

From the ministry:

In the Pskov region with army aviation Western Military District (WEST) and units of the Airborne Troops (VDV) conducted a joint exercise. The event involved two pairs of Mi-8 MTV-5 and MI-24. On the eve of the crews flew from Leningrad Oblast to the airfield Crosses.


The exercise pilots helicopters Mi-8 MTV-5 was carried landing personnel of the Airborne air assault way. Crews Mi-24 helicopters provide cover paratroopers from the air, as well as work out the elements of combat maneuvering and hovering over the point.


Teaching is planned character and end the use of rocket-bomb armament helicopters on land targets on the ground in the Pskov region.

Hopefully land targets on the Russian side of the border.

And just in case escalating tensions along Russia's western border - and one can be certain Estonia and Latvia will scream bloody murder any second - here is a retired Chinese general who just told SCMP that a "war with Japan over territorial disputes is becoming increasingly likely" and that China is more than capable of defending itself.

From SCMP:

A retired People's Liberation Army senior officer says a war with Japan over territorial disputes is becoming increasingly likely and that China is more than capable of defending itself. Other military experts are not convinced the PLA would win any future conflict, despite China's military build-up and modernisation.


Some cite the PLA's lack of battle experience as well as technological weaknesses in certain areas, aircraft engines for example, that could hinder the PLA's fighting capability.


China and Japan moved closer to armed conflict after Beijing established its first air defence identification zone last November in the East China Sea to include the disputed Diaoyu islands, known as the Senkakus in Japan, Major General Luo Yuan said.


"China should remain in a high state of vigilance because Japan has a history of manufacturing small incidents to trigger military conflict," Luo said.


Luo, a vice-president of a Beijing-based think tank of retired military officers, the China Strategy Culture Promotion Association, dismissed suggestions in some Japanese media reports that the country had air combat superiority because its pilots and crews had greater experience and training.


"That conclusion is a deceptive tactic used by Japan to confuse the public," he said. The PLA has deployed its most advanced aircraft and logistical support to military bases along China's southeast coast, a move designed to show that the army is prepared for any military conflict in the area.


"So far, all aircraft sent by both countries to the Diaoyu waters have been third-generation fighter jets. The PLA's newest and most advanced planes entered service at the turn of this century, including the J-10, J-11B and the [Russian-made] Su-27," said Luo.


"In contrast, Japan has deployed to the region only about 30 F-15Js, which their air force has used since the 1980s."


Luo declined to say how many fighter jets the PLA would mobilise in an armed conflict. He said China had an overwhelming advantage in the number and types of aircraft available.


"China has several military airports along the southeast coast that could provide effective logistical support to PLA fighter jets because those air force bases are much closer to the Diaoyus," he said.


"But in Japan, there is just one airport close to the Diaoyus: Naha airport in Okinawa."

While it is quite clear, what is most disturbing about this story is just how much thought has gone into this analysis:

Canada-based magazine Kanwa Asian Defence said the PLA's missile strategic force had deployed its S-300 long-range surface-to-air missile batteries at bases in Fujian since 2012.


Ni Lexiong , director of a defence policy research centre at the Shanghai University of Political Science and Law, said he was not convinced the PLA would have the upper hand in any conflict.


"It's a fact that China's logistical support near the Diaoyus is better than Japan's because military bases in Fujian and Zhejiang province have been ready for war with Taiwan since the 1950s," he said. "But we shouldn't ignore the Americans, who would play a decisive role in any armed conflict between China and Japan."


Macau-based military observer Antony Wong Dong said that if hostilities did break out with Japan, all military bases and facilities on land and sea would be targets for bombing.

"China has more fighter jets than Japan, but one Japanese pilot is probably equivalent to at least three PLA pilots due to their intensive training and joint drills with the US air force," he said.

And the bigest question mark: does China believe the US would step in to defend Japan? "Luo argued the US would not intervene in any conflict."

If China indeed believes this, then the probability of an armed conflict with Japan over whatever pretext, is far higher than the experts - ostensibly the same experts who said the probability of Russia annexing Crimea is non-existant - believe.

Finally, those wondering how to hedge a possible war between China and Japan, it should be quite clear that in a world in which the idiot market is governed by HFT algos which take any flashing red headline, even if it says *TOKYO BOMBED, ABE SAYS DEFLATION AMONG THE RUINS, and trade it as bullish, ramp stocks to record highs, and where central planning has made a terminal mockery of price discovery, the best and only strategy is to buy deep out of the money calls just in case World War III does indeed break out.

Your rating: None

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Thu, 04/03/2014 - 17:03 | 4622610 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

If Putin can grab Crimea without the west responding, then surely China can grab a couple of dung-covered islands being disputed with Japan....

Thu, 04/03/2014 - 17:06 | 4622619 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

That does appear to be the plan.

Thu, 04/03/2014 - 17:12 | 4622641 MeMadMax
MeMadMax's picture

Dude... These guys need to hurry up and start shooting because I got gold set aside for the cordite industry =D

Thu, 04/03/2014 - 17:35 | 4622665 Looney
Looney's picture

Our two Vice Presidents can easily end the Ukrainian debacle – Joe Biden walks out on the WH balcony with a shotgun and fires two blasts in the air to scare them pesky Rooskies, and then Dick Cheney semi-accidentally shoots him in the face with birdshot.  ;-)


Thu, 04/03/2014 - 17:42 | 4622754 Sofa King Confused
Sofa King Confused's picture

Perfect timing....looks like Russia and China might be working together on this problem called the "American Pest"

Thu, 04/03/2014 - 18:44 | 4623038 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Do we know where their super silent boomers are? Just wondering.

Fri, 04/04/2014 - 06:02 | 4624160 wintermute
wintermute's picture

China making up for lost time since 1472 when it left the world to 500 years European colonialism. Now it wants to claim a few unihabited bird-shit rocks in the sea and doesn't care if it wrecks trillions of dollar in trade links for said rocks.

Thu, 04/03/2014 - 23:48 | 4623853 LMAOLORI
LMAOLORI's picture



Looks like we might be fueling that flame ourselves somewhat


US accuses China of provoking Philippines
Thu, 04/03/2014 - 18:00 | 4622850 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

exactly, will someone start a fucking war please ... im tired of all this blustering, like a fly-weight boxing match before the bell rings, alot of scary looks and dancing around...let's get it on !

Thu, 04/03/2014 - 22:42 | 4623736 Flux
Flux's picture

Let me spell it out for you:

There will be no war.

If you spend your time on sites like ZH, you are just another cog caught in the machine. Pining away for an apocalypse that will never happen. The advertisers thank you for your support.

Go get some sunshine, a job, and a life.

You'll feel much better.


Fri, 04/04/2014 - 05:12 | 4624132 the tower
the tower's picture

Go enlist then. Or are you gonna let other die for your pleasure?

Thu, 04/03/2014 - 17:08 | 4622623 RetiredSilverBug
RetiredSilverBug's picture

Population of islands should vote to join China. Oh wait, no population. Crimea doesn't apply. China should send some population first, then do referendum.

Thu, 04/03/2014 - 17:26 | 4622677 Matt
Matt's picture

Do the UN rules state how long a person must be a resident of a place before they get to vote? What was the least amount of time an Albanian had to be in Kosovo to qualify to vote?

Thu, 04/03/2014 - 17:20 | 4622658 DeliciousSteak
DeliciousSteak's picture

If Putin can grab Crimea without the west responding


It is a testament to the power of the west, and the fall of Russia, when Russia acting on a strategically important former piece of their empire - right next to their border - is talked about as if it is almost a direct attack against the west, and at the very least a serious challenge. Russia is losing this conflict, and in the minds of the average westerner, has already lost. Now we just wait for the heartland to disintegrate.

Thu, 04/03/2014 - 17:27 | 4622682 Handful of Dust
Handful of Dust's picture

Wore unpossible. Chinee too buzy buy land in USA thru zillow.

Thu, 04/03/2014 - 17:29 | 4622690 intotheblack
intotheblack's picture

What colour is the sky in your world?

Thu, 04/03/2014 - 18:15 | 4622933 screw face
screw face's picture you buy bridges?


-1.....i tried to down vote ya but to no a vale.



Thu, 04/03/2014 - 20:21 | 4623364 Omen IV
Omen IV's picture

jokster - you take the MSM propoaganda  - as actual reporting -  not as it is - directed by cass sunstein - the people on the streets of europe dont believe the american tripe especially the germans see the polls - which coupled with the unions and industrialists in germany going east  -  Merkel can only give lip service for a while longer - after the east and south of ukraine is done and turned over into a federation obama moves to an easier mark like the marshall islands and clain victory

Thu, 04/03/2014 - 17:36 | 4622724 TheGardener
TheGardener's picture

China to sit out the demographics of Japan, just before
her own such troubles set in. Time to charge things up
because the world wide war bird of world wars to his fame is
about to hit extinction.

They`d better play on time till the Walmart fat fucks just
get carted off after suffering suffocation from succulent soylent green foods...

Fri, 04/04/2014 - 00:49 | 4623933 Peanut Butter E...
Peanut Butter Engineer's picture

<-- My money is bet on China
<-- My money is bet on Japan

Roll the dice who will come out in fewer pieces than his enemy?

Thu, 04/03/2014 - 17:04 | 4622611 idea_hamster
idea_hamster's picture


Thu, 04/03/2014 - 17:09 | 4622613 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture



Pearl Harbor + Hiroshima = BFFs for WWIII.

Thu, 04/03/2014 - 17:04 | 4622615 ForWhomTheTollBuilds
ForWhomTheTollBuilds's picture

Perhaps Biden should return to the Baltics and dare Russia to attack again.  


That'l smooth things over

Thu, 04/03/2014 - 17:05 | 4622617 camaro68ss
camaro68ss's picture

WW3 in my life time..... that sucks. future looks bright, redioactively bright.

Thu, 04/03/2014 - 17:07 | 4622620 McMolotov
McMolotov's picture


Thu, 04/03/2014 - 18:09 | 4622896 medium giraffe
medium giraffe's picture


Thu, 04/03/2014 - 19:24 | 4623175 naughtius maximus
naughtius maximus's picture

It's been almost exactly 100 years since the US got involved in WWI. And this conflict is just as retarded.

Thu, 04/03/2014 - 17:09 | 4622626 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

I have sudden urge to make a mental map of local fallout shelters.

Thu, 04/03/2014 - 18:41 | 4623025 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Why bother?

Thu, 04/03/2014 - 18:42 | 4623028 RafterManFMJ
RafterManFMJ's picture

I bought some duct tape and 5 boxes of plastic wrap; bring on the Nuclear Holocaust.

Thu, 04/03/2014 - 17:09 | 4622627 Obama_4_Dictator
Obama_4_Dictator's picture

Increasing the federal minimum wage to $10.10 per hour. Fifty-one percent would still support raising the minimum wage, even if they had to pay higher prices as a result. However, just 39 percent of Americans would still favor raising the minimum wage if it caused companies to lay off or hire fewer workers.

you have to LOL at those results - I think some WWIII culling is in order, unfortunately. 
Thu, 04/03/2014 - 18:26 | 4622976 falconflight
falconflight's picture

approximately 100 million too many

Thu, 04/03/2014 - 17:09 | 4622629 Rainman
Rainman's picture

I sleep good knowing Barry will handle this when he finishes the back 9 

Thu, 04/03/2014 - 18:28 | 4622985 Last of the Mid...
Last of the Middle Class's picture

i think you mean when he's done with somebody's back 9.

Thu, 04/03/2014 - 17:11 | 4622634 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture



Obama playing chess:

I'm good with my current formation.  Why don't you go again.

Thu, 04/03/2014 - 21:31 | 4623582 ReactionToClose...
ReactionToClosedMinds's picture


Thu, 04/03/2014 - 17:12 | 4622642 LFMayor
LFMayor's picture

Who's babies were playing reverse-lawn-darts last time shit went bad?  That's right.  They need to shut the fuck up and think about this a little further.

Those damn japs will build a fuckin mecha godzilla. Just like they built that secret fucking stargate.  When peoples favorite national cartoon has a dog talking and humping some nubile teenage girl, THEY"RE FUCKING CRAZY.  And that means they'll do crazy shit. Guaranteed.

Thu, 04/03/2014 - 17:13 | 4622644 hookah
hookah's picture

Neocons all over, cause war makes your small dick look bigger.

Thu, 04/03/2014 - 17:14 | 4622646 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

Wars are coming, but there is a war on for our rights here at home.

Man Tasered for Open Carry:

Thu, 04/03/2014 - 17:14 | 4622647 cossack55
cossack55's picture

So which side is Antony Wong Dong supporting.  

Thu, 04/03/2014 - 18:01 | 4622857 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

it was a close call but he has decided to support to Bang Ding Ow

Thu, 04/03/2014 - 17:15 | 4622650 ronron
ronron's picture

WW4 will be fought with sticks and stones. BTFD

Thu, 04/03/2014 - 17:27 | 4622683 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

Sounds barbaric.  Guess I should keep my silver.

Thu, 04/03/2014 - 17:30 | 4622694 Matt
Matt's picture

Naw, WW4 will be fought with 3D printed rifles with hand-pressed bullets. There's no going back to pre-gun technology, and still being able to have a society intwinned enough for a war to be considered global.

Thu, 04/03/2014 - 17:41 | 4622749 unrulian
unrulian's picture

WW4 will be between the cockroaches and rats for the last piece of garbage

Thu, 04/03/2014 - 18:42 | 4623030 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Rats will die of radiation related illness -- cockroaches will eat them too.

Thu, 04/03/2014 - 18:44 | 4623037 RafterManFMJ
RafterManFMJ's picture

So Pelosi was the last survivor of WW3.

Thu, 04/03/2014 - 18:51 | 4623055 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

All reptilians are immune to radiation

Thu, 04/03/2014 - 17:46 | 4622770 1stepcloser
1stepcloser's picture

roar will be fought with chop stixs, General tso says.

Thu, 04/03/2014 - 18:34 | 4623002 STG5IVE
STG5IVE's picture

Chains and daggers would be better

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!