Services Data Misses As Pent-Up "Weather" Demand Fails To Show

Tyler Durden's picture


Markit's Services PMI missed expectations (55.3 vs 55.5 flash) and dropped from last month - as it seems an easing of the 'weather disruption' did nothing for pent-up services demand. Services employment growth slowed (suggesting a weak NFP) as did new business (very significantly) but optimism rose (so that's good). On the heels of that the ISM Services print missed expectations for the 4th month of the last 5 (53.1 vs 53.6) but rose modestly MoM.

Markit's Services PMI is not the big post-weather bounce everyone was hoping for...

"Service sector business activity rebounded in March after being hit by the adverse weather, and companies have grown more upbeat about the outlook. But hiring remained disappointingly subdued, suggesting firms are reluctant to expand capacity until they see firm evidence of stronger demand feeding through to their businesses."


And ISM Services missed expectations for the 4th of last 5 months with what can only e described as a limp bounce...


The tabular breakdown:


And the respondents, where we find that Obamacare continues to wreak havoc:

  • "Outlook remains positive." (Information)
  • "Cold weather played more havoc on revenue, causing steep declines
    for nearly a week, and then picked up well beyond expectations. Overall,
    per capita spending increases, but frequency of visits are down; net
    neutral to slightly positive." (Arts, Entertainment & Recreation)
  • "Demand is rising; while at the same time there is pressure to reduce staffing expenses." (Finance & Insurance)
  • "Healthcare reform continues to adversely impact hospital projected/actual revenue." (Health Care & Social Assistance)
  • "Weather in Northeast — lost business days/business travel and site
    visits impacted. Energy costs rapidly increasing." (Professional,
    Scientific & Technical Services)
  • "Business was a little slower than expected due to harsh weather
    conditions across much of the country, but we expect a rebound as spring
    approaches." (Retail Trade)
  • "Economic environment continues to moderate slowly." (Management of Companies & Support Services)

At least everyone agrees that spring follows winter.

This was the biggest bounce in ISM Services employment on record - but only recovered half the "weather" loss...

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Thu, 04/03/2014 - 10:07 | 4620987 PlusTic
PlusTic's picture

Can't even beat a purposely manipulated number...what a fukking fraud this whole game has become...

Thu, 04/03/2014 - 10:21 | 4621030 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

This is could be a good day for the ZH cheerleaders. The S&P below 1884 will give us the dreaded bearish engulfing candle.

You can do it! Yes you can!

Thu, 04/03/2014 - 10:22 | 4621034 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

if only there was a way to get rid of "the weather"

it's started appearing about 3 years ago and it hasn't stopped showing up on every numberpresentation ever since...


Thu, 04/03/2014 - 10:36 | 4621077 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture


Thu, 04/03/2014 - 11:31 | 4621296 foodstampbarry
foodstampbarry's picture

It's earthquakes now, weather is so last month.

Thu, 04/03/2014 - 10:11 | 4620994 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Nobody is hiring the serfs for the service industry due to the fact that there are fewer people who can afford service. 

Thu, 04/03/2014 - 10:17 | 4621021 STG5IVE
STG5IVE's picture

How are the serfs supposed to get to those meagre wage service jobs with auto prices out of reach and transit costs soaring?  Besides, the serfs are all too busy filling out the extended forms for benefits to survive.

Thu, 04/03/2014 - 10:12 | 4621000 FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

Mr. Yellen will soon have to untaper in a large way. My guess is no taper for a month or two as the data doesn't support it then an increase of QE first slowly then LARGE.

Thu, 04/03/2014 - 10:12 | 4621002 Bill of Rights
Bill of Rights's picture

No doubt this number was much worse...

Thu, 04/03/2014 - 10:12 | 4621004 Cattender
Cattender's picture

the Fucking stock market is doing NOTHING Today (again) this shit is so FAKE even a Blind person can SEE it. PM's have been SMAKED DOWN (again) as this is more PROOF of a Recovery... Meanwhile the u.s. Ten Year Bond Thingy is Rising (again)

Thu, 04/03/2014 - 10:13 | 4621006 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Everybody's just enjoying the good weather, once they get over it things will return to normal.  Why do these numbers even get published anymore?

Thu, 04/03/2014 - 10:13 | 4621009 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

      We clearly need more part time shoe shiners...

Thu, 04/03/2014 - 10:15 | 4621014 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

hiring remained disappointingly subdued, suggesting firms are reluctant to expand capacity until they see firm evidence of consistently GOOD weather.


I understand CNBC is being phased out in favor of the weather channel.

Thu, 04/03/2014 - 10:16 | 4621016 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Weathering weather is one thing. What has happened this past winter, world-wide is so far off (9 sigma) from normal that it's plain to see, it's a new world and weird weather will be the norm.

Expect a scorching summer in the hills to make all that snow melt really hard.

And pent up demand assumes real demand prior to the weather events. Fake numbers cannot hold up faker NUMBers.....


Thu, 04/03/2014 - 10:17 | 4621019 Osmium
Osmium's picture

"Healthcare reform continues to adversely impact hospital projected/actual revenue."


Healthcare reform?  They did nothing to reform healthcare, they just changed the way overpriced healthcare is paid for.


Thu, 04/03/2014 - 10:17 | 4621020 Cursive
Cursive's picture


You can clearly see the different economies of the different segments through the comments section.


  • "Demand is rising; while at the same time there is pressure to reduce staffing expenses." (Finance & Insurance)
Thu, 04/03/2014 - 10:27 | 4621048 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Just once I'd like for these idiots tell the truth in these surveys.... The economy sucks and it's all we can do to keep our head above water. And oh by the way...Fuck you BernakenYellen! And fuck you Zero!

Thu, 04/03/2014 - 10:31 | 4621058 SmilinJoeFizzion
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Every hooker I walk by has at least one black eye-- Bullish

Thu, 04/03/2014 - 10:39 | 4621093 HRamos_3
HRamos_3's picture

Strange shade of green now... Meh, bullish.

Thu, 04/03/2014 - 10:46 | 4621117 short screwed
short screwed's picture

I went through the car wash twice today, to make up for not going in Febuary. Just doing my part to contribute to the snap back.

Thu, 04/03/2014 - 10:55 | 4621157 Rising Sun
Rising Sun's picture

if China can build more shat that no one uses, the US economy can export their shat to China to help build it.


problem solved!!!!!!!!!!!!! 


FUCK YEAH!!!!!!!!!!!


Where's my fucking foodstamps Barry?????   Baby wants his egg-mcmuffin!!!!!!

Thu, 04/03/2014 - 11:01 | 4621176 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Plenty of pent-up Wall Street BS.

Guess the parade of $5,000 suits on business channels can't convince enough indebted and broke debt-slaves to beg for more credit.

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