March Payrolls Miss 192K, Below 200K Expected, Unemployment Rate 6.7% Above 6.6% Expected

Tyler Durden's picture


Here are the key numbers: March payrolls +192K, below the 200K expected (LaVorgna 275K). This was a drop from the upward revised February print of 197K. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.7%, and above the 6.6% expected. The participation rate rose modestly from 63.0% to 63.2% as the labor force rose by 500K to 156,226 while the people not in the labor force declined by over 300K to 91,030. Manufacturing jobs had the largest drop since July. The number of unemployed rose 27K to 10,486K.  Conclusion: it snowed in March too, but judging by the perfectly expected stock reaction, it snowed in a good way.




The people not in the labor force has taken a turn lower. Snow, or structural?


And a pick up in the LFP - more BLS "goalseeking:?


From the report: 

In March, the number of unemployed persons was essentially unchanged at 10.5 million, and the unemployment rate held at 6.7 percent. Both measures have shown little movement since December 2013. Over the year, the number of unemployed persons and the unemployment rate were down by 1.2 million and 0.8 percentage point, respectively. (See table A-1.)


Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for adult women increased to 6.2 percent in March, and the rate for adult men decreased to 6.2 percent. The rates for teenagers (20.9 percent), whites (5.8 percent), blacks (12.4 percent), and Hispanics (7.9 percent) showed little or no change. The jobless rate for Asians was 5.4 percent (not seasonally adjusted), little changed from a year earlier. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)


The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more), at 3.7 million, changed little in March; these individuals accounted for 35.8 percent of the unemployed. The number of long-term unemployed was down by 837,000 over the year. (See table A-12.)


Both the civilian labor force and total employment increased in March. The labor force participation rate (63.2 percent) and the employment-population ratio (58.9 percent) changed little over the month. (See table A-1.) The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was little changed at 7.4 million in March. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find full-time work. (See table A-8.)


In March, 2.2 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, little changed from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. (See table A-16.)


Among the marginally attached, there were 698,000 discouraged workers in March, down  slightly from a year earlier. (These data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.5 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in March had not searched for work for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities. (See table A-16.) 

From the establishment survey:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 192,000 in March. Job growth averaged 183,000 per month over the prior 12 months. In March, employment grew in professional and business services, in health care, and in mining and logging. (See table B-1.)

Stocks already factored all of this in and soared. 

And last and certainly least, LaVorgna:

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Fri, 04/04/2014 - 08:33 | 4624327 Shocker
Shocker's picture

This is one interesting Recovery.

Full Layoff / Business Closing List


Fri, 04/04/2014 - 08:35 | 4624336 SoilMyselfRotten
SoilMyselfRotten's picture

And let the games begin...

Fri, 04/04/2014 - 08:39 | 4624362 wallstreetapost...
wallstreetaposteriori's picture

I find the revisions to january and february the most interesting as it pertains to the weather.  Its the weathers fault things are so bad, but they must not have been that bad.  I wonder if the horrible spending numbers were indicative to consumers being indebted to the max?  

Fri, 04/04/2014 - 08:41 | 4624373 easypoint
easypoint's picture

Also the weather.

Fri, 04/04/2014 - 08:51 | 4624408 GetZeeGold
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Lord, I'll never forget when I saw those first flakes of devil's dandruff," recalled hankie-clutching Atlanta snowstorm survivor Buford Callaway (Taran Killam). He gave TV weathermen a few other nicknames for the white stuff they can use for the next snowfall, including "New England clam powder," "Connecticut confetti" and "Obama's white friend."

Fri, 04/04/2014 - 08:59 | 4624433 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture



Average hourly earnings were flat (lowest since August 2013) on expectations of a .2% increase.

So there goes that whole 'wage push' inflation theory...


Fri, 04/04/2014 - 09:07 | 4624461 clooney_art
clooney_art's picture

The establishment has unleashed an all out war on reality and truth. Soviet Union and North Korea will be proud.

Fri, 04/04/2014 - 09:17 | 4624482 Whoa Dammit
Whoa Dammit's picture

It seems like there should be jobs for all in our ever growing field of spying/foreign revolution plotting. 

Fri, 04/04/2014 - 09:20 | 4624489 cifo
cifo's picture

How is laVorgna able to keep his job? He must blow a lot.


Fri, 04/04/2014 - 09:30 | 4624516 Keyser
Keyser's picture

When the facts are obfuscated as it pertains to employment, equities, trade deficits, commodities, etc, what does it really matter? BTFATH...



Fri, 04/04/2014 - 09:09 | 4624465 weburke
weburke's picture

the gulf stream is so dead

Fri, 04/04/2014 - 09:16 | 4624479 Bytor325
Bytor325's picture

Also the weather

Dont be so quick to discount the weather effect.  I find myself highly unproductive when it gets below 233o K for any length of time.

Fri, 04/04/2014 - 08:41 | 4624374 wallstreetapost...
wallstreetaposteriori's picture

My number was 190K NFP.  At least I know I am smarter than 2 people in the world.... 

Person 1: Joe Lavorgna

Person 2: Fonestar


It would suck if they were the same person... then I would be back to one.

Fri, 04/04/2014 - 08:40 | 4624366 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

Another swing and a miss for Joey "275K print" La-balogna

Fri, 04/04/2014 - 08:40 | 4624367 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

CNBS now saying jobs rebounding cause weather improving!!

Ya think ZH got to them about weather as an excuse??

Fri, 04/04/2014 - 09:39 | 4624552 elwind45
elwind45's picture

Cnbc finally realized it was an excuse and not a reason? Or didn't realize that snow brings on more and not less work! Hours worked is up because Walmart most allow for extra hours due to inventory system wide during first quarter? The last two monthes revisions make seasonal adjustments just another forward looking excuses flattener

Fri, 04/04/2014 - 09:15 | 4624359 ilion
ilion's picture

The US and EU can't come out of this deflationary spiral and huge government debts without starting some kind of world conflict with Russia (maybe China) and thus creating an excuse to confiscate the deposits. I think it's quite simple.


Fri, 04/04/2014 - 09:33 | 4624525 Keyser
Keyser's picture

Correctomundo, the globalists need to destroy some infrastructure to create the need for stimulus to rebuild and create jobs, along with population reduction. Let's just hope that radiation suits and mutant zombies are not in our future. 


Fri, 04/04/2014 - 08:50 | 4624403 BandGap
BandGap's picture

@ Shocker

Interesting covering is more like it.

Fri, 04/04/2014 - 08:33 | 4624329 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture


Fri, 04/04/2014 - 08:33 | 4624330 asteroids
asteroids's picture

Terrible bullshit numbers. Tired of todays oligarch controlled environment? Go to cash and don't trade until the VIX gets above 17 or so. I suspect the smart money has figured this out.

Fri, 04/04/2014 - 09:36 | 4624538 Keyser
Keyser's picture

There's a reason PM's got a bump when the payroll numbers came out this morning. We're not the only ones calling BS on the BLS. 


Fri, 04/04/2014 - 08:34 | 4624331 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture






Fri, 04/04/2014 - 08:38 | 4624354 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture


Fri, 04/04/2014 - 08:45 | 4624382 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Once the temperatures get in the mid-80's, fuck you can't expect people to work in such conditions! Unseasionably unreasonably HOT!

Fri, 04/04/2014 - 08:49 | 4624398 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

people really really have a hard time during the summer...

Fri, 04/04/2014 - 11:42 | 4625012 SDShack
SDShack's picture

LOL- I've been saying that for weeks. First it's winter storms, then spring floods due to rain and snow thaw, then spring thunderstorms and tornados, then summer heat, then late summer/fall hurricanes. WTF, the excuses by the lamestream experts are SO predictable.

Fri, 04/04/2014 - 08:40 | 4624368 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

It's not so much the rain but the wind that causes all the problems. We had a number of breezy days with wind gusts. Those gusts can really mess your hair up and who would risk that?

Fri, 04/04/2014 - 08:46 | 4624385 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

good point silver, never thought of it like that.


lets just hope that we dont see any major heatwaves this summer, or god knows how many people may just be out of work.



Fri, 04/04/2014 - 09:39 | 4624553 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

What if the weather gets really nice over the summer and everyone takes time off to enjoy it????  The economy would really take a hit then.

Anyone else find it interesting that volume has effectively halved in the last few days since HFT started being the devil in the media?

Fri, 04/04/2014 - 09:42 | 4624576 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture


To further the "Global Warming" alarmist agenda?

Fri, 04/04/2014 - 09:23 | 4624486 inky
inky's picture



Fri, 04/04/2014 - 09:08 | 4624463 Two Feet Studs Up
Two Feet Studs Up's picture

That's one hell of a name. - steve "it's all" liesman

Fri, 04/04/2014 - 08:34 | 4624333 ugmug
ugmug's picture

Obama's New National Anthem

President Obama will sign an executive fatwa declaring a new national anthem .....

Fibber Island


Fri, 04/04/2014 - 08:35 | 4624334 Big Corked Boots
Big Corked Boots's picture

And, metals to the moon.

To be followed by a beatdown.

Fri, 04/04/2014 - 08:37 | 4624352 blabam
blabam's picture

Old Yeller is putting her fat finger on it. 

Fri, 04/04/2014 - 08:45 | 4624383 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

saw that movie...

loved the ending...

Fri, 04/04/2014 - 09:07 | 4624460 PT
PT's picture

Can you guys please get a new chairsatan with a different name?  I'm sick of the good Ol' Yeller's name being dragged through the mud.  Ol' Yeller was the ultimate hero.  Yellin hasn't earnt the comparison yet.  ( I guess a lot of people here won't care, as long as the ending is the same. )

Fri, 04/04/2014 - 08:35 | 4624337 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

The BLS also said that the economy has gained all the jobs lost in the recession.  Umm, they failed to mention that in the interim the population has grown and of course as ZHers know, the jobs gained are low wage.

Fri, 04/04/2014 - 08:51 | 4624405 onewayticket2
onewayticket2's picture

isnt central planning (and communication) great? 

Fri, 04/04/2014 - 09:05 | 4624454 DavidC
DavidC's picture

If I remember the figures correctly, it will need +325,000 every month over the next five years to get back to pre 'recession' levels (sorry, but it ain't, it's a Depression).


Fri, 04/04/2014 - 09:55 | 4624647 elwind45
elwind45's picture

It was a numbers wash? Not a wages comparison

Fri, 04/04/2014 - 11:46 | 4625023 SDShack
SDShack's picture

Recovery Summer v6.0.... and counting.

Fri, 04/04/2014 - 08:35 | 4624338 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

boy was I wrong.....I should get a job in economics


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Fri, 04/04/2014 - 08:36 | 4624347 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Just solve this easy math problem:

1 + 1 = 3


explain why it's 3

Fri, 04/04/2014 - 08:38 | 4624357 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

I see what you did there.....or I didn' I right?  Maybe I should be in politics.

Fri, 04/04/2014 - 08:41 | 4624372 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

1 = 1

+ = 1

1 = 1

   = 3


I'll give you a A+ anyway because our "no poster left behind" programm but... you didn't get the job... 

Fri, 04/04/2014 - 08:47 | 4624388 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

aahhhh.....I see now....thanks anyway I don't need the job with all my free shit army gear and money, and with the A+ at least I can flunk out of a good school now.


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Fri, 04/04/2014 - 08:47 | 4624389 BandGap
BandGap's picture

Clearly a significan figure problem. The actual data is as follows -

1.3 (rounds to 1) + 1.2 (rounds to 1) = 3 (2.5 rounds to 3)

I could werk for the gubmint.



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