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March Payrolls Miss 192K, Below 200K Expected, Unemployment Rate 6.7% Above 6.6% Expected
Here are the key numbers: March payrolls +192K, below the 200K expected (LaVorgna 275K). This was a drop from the upward revised February print of 197K. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.7%, and above the 6.6% expected. The participation rate rose modestly from 63.0% to 63.2% as the labor force rose by 500K to 156,226 while the people not in the labor force declined by over 300K to 91,030. Manufacturing jobs had the largest drop since July. The number of unemployed rose 27K to 10,486K. Conclusion: it snowed in March too, but judging by the perfectly expected stock reaction, it snowed in a good way.
Monthly:
The people not in the labor force has taken a turn lower. Snow, or structural?
And a pick up in the LFP - more BLS "goalseeking:?
From the report:
In March, the number of unemployed persons was essentially unchanged at 10.5 million, and the unemployment rate held at 6.7 percent. Both measures have shown little movement since December 2013. Over the year, the number of unemployed persons and the unemployment rate were down by 1.2 million and 0.8 percentage point, respectively. (See table A-1.)
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for adult women increased to 6.2 percent in March, and the rate for adult men decreased to 6.2 percent. The rates for teenagers (20.9 percent), whites (5.8 percent), blacks (12.4 percent), and Hispanics (7.9 percent) showed little or no change. The jobless rate for Asians was 5.4 percent (not seasonally adjusted), little changed from a year earlier. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)
The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more), at 3.7 million, changed little in March; these individuals accounted for 35.8 percent of the unemployed. The number of long-term unemployed was down by 837,000 over the year. (See table A-12.)
Both the civilian labor force and total employment increased in March. The labor force participation rate (63.2 percent) and the employment-population ratio (58.9 percent) changed little over the month. (See table A-1.) The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was little changed at 7.4 million in March. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find full-time work. (See table A-8.)
In March, 2.2 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, little changed from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. (See table A-16.)
Among the marginally attached, there were 698,000 discouraged workers in March, down slightly from a year earlier. (These data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.5 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in March had not searched for work for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities. (See table A-16.)
From the establishment survey:
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 192,000 in March. Job growth averaged 183,000 per month over the prior 12 months. In March, employment grew in professional and business services, in health care, and in mining and logging. (See table B-1.)
Stocks already factored all of this in and soared.
And last and certainly least, LaVorgna:
The rebound in #nonmanufacturingISM employment (53.6 vs. 47.5) points to a snapback in March #payrolls which we expect to show a 275k gain
— Joseph A. LaVorgna (@Lavorgnanomics) April 3, 2014
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This is one interesting Recovery.
Full Layoff / Business Closing List
http://www.dailyjobcuts.com
/
And let the games begin...
I find the revisions to january and february the most interesting as it pertains to the weather. Its the weathers fault things are so bad, but they must not have been that bad. I wonder if the horrible spending numbers were indicative to consumers being indebted to the max?
Also the weather.
Lord, I'll never forget when I saw those first flakes of devil's dandruff," recalled hankie-clutching Atlanta snowstorm survivor Buford Callaway (Taran Killam). He gave TV weathermen a few other nicknames for the white stuff they can use for the next snowfall, including "New England clam powder," "Connecticut confetti" and "Obama's white friend."
Average hourly earnings were flat (lowest since August 2013) on expectations of a .2% increase.
So there goes that whole 'wage push' inflation theory...
The establishment has unleashed an all out war on reality and truth. Soviet Union and North Korea will be proud.
It seems like there should be jobs for all in our ever growing field of spying/foreign revolution plotting.
How is laVorgna able to keep his job? He must blow a lot.
When the facts are obfuscated as it pertains to employment, equities, trade deficits, commodities, etc, what does it really matter? BTFATH...
the gulf stream is so dead
Also the weather
Dont be so quick to discount the weather effect. I find myself highly unproductive when it gets below 233o K for any length of time.
My number was 190K NFP. At least I know I am smarter than 2 people in the world....
Person 1: Joe Lavorgna
Person 2: Fonestar
It would suck if they were the same person... then I would be back to one.
Another swing and a miss for Joey "275K print" La-balogna
CNBS now saying jobs rebounding cause weather improving!!
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101555114
Ya think ZH got to them about weather as an excuse??
Winter is hell.
http://www.nbc.com/saturday-night-live/video/weekend-update-buford-calloway/n45830
Cnbc finally realized it was an excuse and not a reason? Or didn't realize that snow brings on more and not less work! Hours worked is up because Walmart most allow for extra hours due to inventory system wide during first quarter? The last two monthes revisions make seasonal adjustments just another forward looking excuses flattener
The US and EU can't come out of this deflationary spiral and huge government debts without starting some kind of world conflict with Russia (maybe China) and thus creating an excuse to confiscate the deposits. I think it's quite simple.
Correctomundo, the globalists need to destroy some infrastructure to create the need for stimulus to rebuild and create jobs, along with population reduction. Let's just hope that radiation suits and mutant zombies are not in our future.
@ Shocker
Interesting covering is more like it.
BULLISH
Terrible bullshit numbers. Tired of todays oligarch controlled environment? Go to cash and don't trade until the VIX gets above 17 or so. I suspect the smart money has figured this out.
There's a reason PM's got a bump when the payroll numbers came out this morning. We're not the only ones calling BS on the BLS.
TYLER!! ITS THE FUCKING WEATHER.
DID YOU NOT SEE THAT RAIN COMING DOWN ON THAT 3RD TUESDAY IN MARCH? HOW THE FUCK DO WE EXPECT PEOPLE TO WORK IN THOSE CONDITIONS.
WHY CANT YOU LISTEN TO STEVE LIESMAN OR JIM CRAMER, THESE GUYS ARE SO FUCKING SMART!!!!
JUST WAIT UNTILL IT'S GOING TO GET TO WARM TO WORK THIS SUMMER!!
Once the temperatures get in the mid-80's, fuck you can't expect people to work in such conditions! Unseasionably unreasonably HOT!
http://youtu.be/5a31ejY8T6g
people really really have a hard time during the summer...
LOL- I've been saying that for weeks. First it's winter storms, then spring floods due to rain and snow thaw, then spring thunderstorms and tornados, then summer heat, then late summer/fall hurricanes. WTF, the excuses by the lamestream experts are SO predictable.
It's not so much the rain but the wind that causes all the problems. We had a number of breezy days with wind gusts. Those gusts can really mess your hair up and who would risk that?
good point silver, never thought of it like that.
lets just hope that we dont see any major heatwaves this summer, or god knows how many people may just be out of work.
DAMN THE WEATHER, WHY DOES IT HAVE TO RUIN EVERYTHING
What if the weather gets really nice over the summer and everyone takes time off to enjoy it???? The economy would really take a hit then.
Anyone else find it interesting that volume has effectively halved in the last few days since HFT started being the devil in the media?
"DAMN THE WEATHER, WHY DOES IT HAVE TO RUIN EVERYTHING"
To further the "Global Warming" alarmist agenda?
@SilverIsKing
Baldys?
That's one hell of a name. - steve "it's all" liesman
Obama's New National Anthem
President Obama will sign an executive fatwa declaring a new national anthem .....
Fibber Island
http://open.spotify.com/track/3t9JaukL7VuyHn3XUmwJwC
And, metals to the moon.
To be followed by a beatdown.
Old Yeller is putting her fat finger on it.
saw that movie...
loved the ending...
http://youtu.be/gztkhNaerDM
Can you guys please get a new chairsatan with a different name? I'm sick of the good Ol' Yeller's name being dragged through the mud. Ol' Yeller was the ultimate hero. Yellin hasn't earnt the comparison yet. ( I guess a lot of people here won't care, as long as the ending is the same. )
The BLS also said that the economy has gained all the jobs lost in the recession. Umm, they failed to mention that in the interim the population has grown and of course as ZHers know, the jobs gained are low wage.
isnt central planning (and communication) great?
If I remember the figures correctly, it will need +325,000 every month over the next five years to get back to pre 'recession' levels (sorry, but it ain't, it's a Depression).
DavidC
It was a numbers wash? Not a wages comparison
Recovery Summer v6.0.... and counting.
boy was I wrong.....I should get a job in economics
:::: : : ::: :::::
Just solve this easy math problem:
1 + 1 = 3
explain why it's 3
I see what you did there.....or I didn't.....am I right? Maybe I should be in politics.
1 = 1
+ = 1
1 = 1
= 3
I'll give you a A+ anyway because our "no poster left behind" programm but... you didn't get the job...
aahhhh.....I see now....thanks anyway I don't need the job with all my free shit army gear and money, and with the A+ at least I can flunk out of a good school now.
::::: : : ::: :::::
Clearly a significan figure problem. The actual data is as follows -
1.3 (rounds to 1) + 1.2 (rounds to 1) = 3 (2.5 rounds to 3)
I could werk for the gubmint.
I like that " "no poster left behind" program" lol
I mean with HFT trading, gold manipulation, interest rates manipulations, money printing, on-and-on,
We are all just bozo's on this bus so we gotta stick together!
1 +1 = 11
or you merge them:
1 +1 = 1
YOU'RE A WIZZARD I TELL YA!!!
It's 3 due to formulaic adjustments.
Rounding error.
1 + 1 + weather = 3
"Just solve this easy math problem:"
Well, it's not Throwback Thursday any more, but how many here remember when you had to complete a math exercise just to be able to post here? How many of today's poster would be able to qualify?
QE to infinity?
SD re why 1 + 1 = 3 :
It's the multiplier effect.
So free money friendly! Now get to work, Mr. Yellin!
THE RUSSIAN DID IT!!!
The masses will continue to receive the liberating experience of unemployment. Lucky them.
plenty of time for them to sit around and consider why they're being fucked.
Too bad your average joe is fucking stupid and is probably wasting such "liberating" free time.
Potential lies within the individual. A loser will always be a loser.
But a winner will not necessarily always be a winner.
Motherfucking BULLIS....uh....PRINT MOAR.....um....SELL!
You can't call 192k jobs a miss. Please!
In "Normal" times this used to be 350K just to keep up with growth.
192K is a insane joke...
The difference is the number of people in the gutter no longer counted in the stats. Yeah things are recovering nicely.
/s
Too much MSNBC GFORCE. Shame shame.
I'm guessing that is the adjusted number. What's the raw number?
What? Are you daft?
It's below the consensus and below the 250K a month needed for years to get us back to the same employment numbers we had before the collapse....not to mention where we need to be now.
I bet your state just legalized weed, didn't it.
Ignorance is bliss I guess.....Keep Calm and Roll Another.
Is that you Janet??? If it is, go fuck yourself!!!!!!!!!!!!
People are focusing on the wrong news. It's not about NFPs and the unemployment rate.
Sales of Mercedes Benz, BMWs and other luxury cars did very well in 2013 and had a good month of March. This reveals the (success) story that is QE.
Have to move the rate up because it is too close to the Fed 6.5% target...
whisper was 250k chief!
"It's all bs and it's bad for you" - George Carlin
But in this market all news is good news and boris now pauses till the July meeting.
Has Joe Lasagna mentioned the weather effect yet?
The perfect "ramp equities" number release. Goldilocks baby!! Greenlight liquidity pump Friday - Nothing changes...Move along.
The "response" to the numbers looks pretty sick and weak. I wonder if today will be another NO volume day.
yep another low volume, vix smashing day... yayz!
There is no market anymore... do you short, do you go long? WTF!!!! I guess just buy...it's a sure bet!!!!
How is it that algos programmed by some of the finest mathematical minds never seem to be able to tell good news from bad news?
Maybe the Fed has their own algorithms that are programmed to buy on news releases? I would be surprised if that wasn't the case. If the Fed hasn't been intervening directly in the equity markets then they have had the financial institutions do it for them (and probably front run the orders as well).
Let's hear the downward gdp revisions.
So joe lasagna was only off by 83,000 - quick let's book him for another round of guest appearances on CNBS!
I normally like to post the link to Table 1 of the Employment Situation Report, but I've even given up doing that.
What does it matter? Baseball. Basketball. Hockey. Go team!
How is spending 'horrible'?? Its just that shoppers are shifting to online. Regular stores need to get it together they can't or don't want to compete with online retailers like Amazon. Prices are typically higher, horrible customer service (ex. had to wait & wait & wait at Staples for someone to get me a copy of the Intuit Business tax software -- I was only spending $99 plus tax like they are doing a favor by helping paying customers). I recently stopped at mall one night after work, I couldn't really find anything worth spending money on. I find more on the racks at Marshalls or TjMaxx then the expensive 'holier than thou' retailers with the $10 an hour employees that think they deserve $15 an hour
I used to think as you do that $10/hr clerks do not deserve $15/hr.
That was until Hank Paulson gave a trillion dollars to the Jewish mafia on Wall Street, and don't ask him any fucking questions about what they were permitted to do with it. (Naturally, these Wolves gave it mostly to themselves for their criminal failures in the Mortgage market fraud).
And then Bernanke and Geithner and now Yellen and Lew giving them quadrillions in the greatest bank heist in history, with instead of the Willie Suttons robbing them, they steal from the poor to give to the rich.
Until that is ALL pulled back, and interest tacked on at 10% per yr, compounded, I don't really care who demands more money for nothing.
I no longer get my briefs in a twist over human beans, ordinary ones, demanding more money. It is a flea fart in a high wind their demands over what the banksters got and continue to get without even raising their hands.
As I'm a noob, can someone explain why LaVorgna deserves mention?
because he's a tool and a shill...
Pangloss does his economic modelling.
A range of 90,000-300,000 and markets would have knee-jerked higher....no point in even paying attention anymore.
The Central Committee of Economics says 193k jobs. Who dares to suggest otherwise ? Accusations of pulling the number out of those gefelte fish flaps between her legs will get you audited by Central Tax Committee.
Can this be true? I just heard on the radio that we have recovered all private sector jobs to pre-recession levels. I didn't have the figures in front of me, but how can that be possible considering the low job add numbers and the high job loss numbers. Can anyone explain this?????
Si, they use Mirrors.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&cad=rja&...
OT, or maybe not -Miriam Carey murder update: from new release of coroners report(not covered in MSM)
"Upon arriving, she apparently made a wrong turn into a White House entrance, tried to leave, was chased by heavily armed officers and ultimately shot dead by police in the shadow of the Capitol.
Why she was killed is a mystery to this day because, according to the initial police report, she never crashed a security gate or a barrier, though media reports claimed she had.
Read the initial police report on the Miriam Carey case, Page 1 and Page 2.
She simply tried to make a U-turn and leave.
Yet, uniformed Secret Service agents and U.S. Capitol Police officers tried to stop her, then hunted her down and shot her to death.
And to this day, a half-year later, no one knows why."
one way to reduce the workforce I guess.
How come the MSM tooters (gasprom USSA) never speak how many jobs we need to absorb the new entriees into the job market. High schools will "matriculate" (love that word)hundreds of thousands in May and June along with our student loan winners. We haven't started a war yet so the military isn't ramping up. No jobs in Europe. Basements are full. BLS going to ramp this number up soon or what.
Gooooooooooollllllld, BITCHEZ!
OK so the FED is keying their QE ACTION based on PHONEY GOVERNMENT FIGURES... is that it ?? what 6.7% unemployment...
not counting people who dropped out is bullshit... factor in the free lunch crowd, which is a drain on the economy... despite looney tune pelosi saying it builds the economy... libtards in charge = forward is back, up is down, good is evil, black is white.. etc, etc etc...
SO AFTER ALL WE ARE PRINTING AND BORROWING MONEY TO QUELL THE SLACKERS, THE OBAMACROWD... PRESIDENT FOODSTAMP... got it. So now you can tell your kids and grandkids how generous they will be to fund this abomination of a government and are already ENSLAVED... by socialist programs that we all know are fails, but buying votes trumps freedom. thus we have douchebags like reid, pelosi, wasserbag, schumer, and the black caucus elected by reatards and fraud... and FREE LUNCH giveaways....
Did you all buy yesterday's dip?
What? Where's the big bounce back from the shitty weather? Maybe it isn't warm enough yet for most economists.
How do we get 200K average with this group or is it much bigger list?....shouldn't the average be weighted based on the salaries of those that do this guessing or the size of the organization? Also should be some post-report reporting showing each month of the year and variance from correct total.
The Kenyan kids recovery is in full bloom!
Let's keep blaming the weather...... we don't even use that one yet over here in Ireland.
Q: How do you know it's summer in Ireland?
A: The rain's warmer.....
March Madness.
Can't expect people to work when there's basketball on the tube.
I wish I could just call it "March" madness...People deserve what's coming at them. It's gonna be a cold April this year,
Digital zero ramp in progress. On the backs of the fallen. Wallstreet is nothing more than a big smiley face rubberstamped on the face of the US.
Kinda like the rich couple that show up at the fancy party in their best duds with no one knowing their bk. They can sure slurp down that caviar though.
On that same thought - if you don't tell anyone you're bankrupt - are you still bankrupt?
EFH to delay bankruptcy.
And to go further down that rabbit hole:
http://www.bizjournals.com/dallas/blog/morning_call/2014/04/report-efh-bankruptcy-plan-would-nearly-erase.html
So, what was heralded (at the time) as the largest LBO evahhhh, is now falling apart. Well, at least I am getting an insiders view of this whole mess. There are lots of somber faces in our upper management offices lately here at the "electron factory".
Now, to make things even stranger:
Earlier this week, it was reported that Fidelity Investments, which owns some of EFH's debt, was back in the negotiations to reach a plan. Fidelity's involvement is critical in reaching a prearranged bankruptcy plan for EFH.
Guess who administers our 401K plan? I can see those rat-bastards stealing our "nest eggs" if they perceive that they've been ripped off by the LBO partners....
party like it's 2007! c'mon everybody
And now for some totally unrelated light entertainment, here's Crowded House with 'Weather With You':
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ag8XcMG1EX4
Weaken the dollar and you will have more jobs. It worked this month in Canada as we have 43k new jobs.
When last bubble pops, U-rate is around 4.5 to 4.9%, we need more people get up and dance.