March Payrolls Miss 192K, Below 200K Expected, Unemployment Rate 6.7% Above 6.6% Expected

Tyler Durden's picture

Here are the key numbers: March payrolls +192K, below the 200K expected (LaVorgna 275K). This was a drop from the upward revised February print of 197K. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.7%, and above the 6.6% expected. The participation rate rose modestly from 63.0% to 63.2% as the labor force rose by 500K to 156,226 while the people not in the labor force declined by over 300K to 91,030. Manufacturing jobs had the largest drop since July. The number of unemployed rose 27K to 10,486K.  Conclusion: it snowed in March too, but judging by the perfectly expected stock reaction, it snowed in a good way.




The people not in the labor force has taken a turn lower. Snow, or structural?


And a pick up in the LFP - more BLS "goalseeking:?


From the report: 

In March, the number of unemployed persons was essentially unchanged at 10.5 million, and the unemployment rate held at 6.7 percent. Both measures have shown little movement since December 2013. Over the year, the number of unemployed persons and the unemployment rate were down by 1.2 million and 0.8 percentage point, respectively. (See table A-1.)


Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for adult women increased to 6.2 percent in March, and the rate for adult men decreased to 6.2 percent. The rates for teenagers (20.9 percent), whites (5.8 percent), blacks (12.4 percent), and Hispanics (7.9 percent) showed little or no change. The jobless rate for Asians was 5.4 percent (not seasonally adjusted), little changed from a year earlier. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)


The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more), at 3.7 million, changed little in March; these individuals accounted for 35.8 percent of the unemployed. The number of long-term unemployed was down by 837,000 over the year. (See table A-12.)


Both the civilian labor force and total employment increased in March. The labor force participation rate (63.2 percent) and the employment-population ratio (58.9 percent) changed little over the month. (See table A-1.) The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was little changed at 7.4 million in March. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find full-time work. (See table A-8.)


In March, 2.2 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, little changed from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. (See table A-16.)


Among the marginally attached, there were 698,000 discouraged workers in March, down  slightly from a year earlier. (These data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.5 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in March had not searched for work for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities. (See table A-16.) 

From the establishment survey:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 192,000 in March. Job growth averaged 183,000 per month over the prior 12 months. In March, employment grew in professional and business services, in health care, and in mining and logging. (See table B-1.)

Stocks already factored all of this in and soared. 

And last and certainly least, LaVorgna:

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Shocker's picture

This is one interesting Recovery.

Full Layoff / Business Closing List


wallstreetaposteriori's picture

I find the revisions to january and february the most interesting as it pertains to the weather.  Its the weathers fault things are so bad, but they must not have been that bad.  I wonder if the horrible spending numbers were indicative to consumers being indebted to the max?  

GetZeeGold's picture



Lord, I'll never forget when I saw those first flakes of devil's dandruff," recalled hankie-clutching Atlanta snowstorm survivor Buford Callaway (Taran Killam). He gave TV weathermen a few other nicknames for the white stuff they can use for the next snowfall, including "New England clam powder," "Connecticut confetti" and "Obama's white friend."

Pool Shark's picture



Average hourly earnings were flat (lowest since August 2013) on expectations of a .2% increase.

So there goes that whole 'wage push' inflation theory...


clooney_art's picture

The establishment has unleashed an all out war on reality and truth. Soviet Union and North Korea will be proud.

Whoa Dammit's picture

It seems like there should be jobs for all in our ever growing field of spying/foreign revolution plotting. 

cifo's picture

How is laVorgna able to keep his job? He must blow a lot.


Keyser's picture

When the facts are obfuscated as it pertains to employment, equities, trade deficits, commodities, etc, what does it really matter? BTFATH...



weburke's picture

the gulf stream is so dead

Bytor325's picture

Also the weather

Dont be so quick to discount the weather effect.  I find myself highly unproductive when it gets below 233o K for any length of time.

wallstreetaposteriori's picture

My number was 190K NFP.  At least I know I am smarter than 2 people in the world.... 

Person 1: Joe Lavorgna

Person 2: Fonestar


It would suck if they were the same person... then I would be back to one.

Jumbotron's picture

Another swing and a miss for Joey "275K print" La-balogna

Headbanger's picture

CNBS now saying jobs rebounding cause weather improving!!

Ya think ZH got to them about weather as an excuse??

elwind45's picture

Cnbc finally realized it was an excuse and not a reason? Or didn't realize that snow brings on more and not less work! Hours worked is up because Walmart most allow for extra hours due to inventory system wide during first quarter? The last two monthes revisions make seasonal adjustments just another forward looking excuses flattener

ilion's picture

The US and EU can't come out of this deflationary spiral and huge government debts without starting some kind of world conflict with Russia (maybe China) and thus creating an excuse to confiscate the deposits. I think it's quite simple.


Keyser's picture

Correctomundo, the globalists need to destroy some infrastructure to create the need for stimulus to rebuild and create jobs, along with population reduction. Let's just hope that radiation suits and mutant zombies are not in our future. 


BandGap's picture

@ Shocker

Interesting covering is more like it.

asteroids's picture

Terrible bullshit numbers. Tired of todays oligarch controlled environment? Go to cash and don't trade until the VIX gets above 17 or so. I suspect the smart money has figured this out.

Keyser's picture

There's a reason PM's got a bump when the payroll numbers came out this morning. We're not the only ones calling BS on the BLS. 


thismarketisrigged's picture






Sudden Debt's picture


SheepDog-One's picture

Once the temperatures get in the mid-80's, fuck you can't expect people to work in such conditions! Unseasionably unreasonably HOT!

Sudden Debt's picture

people really really have a hard time during the summer...

SDShack's picture

LOL- I've been saying that for weeks. First it's winter storms, then spring floods due to rain and snow thaw, then spring thunderstorms and tornados, then summer heat, then late summer/fall hurricanes. WTF, the excuses by the lamestream experts are SO predictable.

SilverIsKing's picture

It's not so much the rain but the wind that causes all the problems. We had a number of breezy days with wind gusts. Those gusts can really mess your hair up and who would risk that?

thismarketisrigged's picture

good point silver, never thought of it like that.


lets just hope that we dont see any major heatwaves this summer, or god knows how many people may just be out of work.



eclectic syncretist's picture

What if the weather gets really nice over the summer and everyone takes time off to enjoy it????  The economy would really take a hit then.

Anyone else find it interesting that volume has effectively halved in the last few days since HFT started being the devil in the media?

Iam_Silverman's picture


To further the "Global Warming" alarmist agenda?

Two Feet Studs Up's picture

That's one hell of a name. - steve "it's all" liesman

ugmug's picture

Obama's New National Anthem

President Obama will sign an executive fatwa declaring a new national anthem .....

Fibber Island


Big Corked Boots's picture

And, metals to the moon.

To be followed by a beatdown.

blabam's picture

Old Yeller is putting her fat finger on it. 

PT's picture

Can you guys please get a new chairsatan with a different name?  I'm sick of the good Ol' Yeller's name being dragged through the mud.  Ol' Yeller was the ultimate hero.  Yellin hasn't earnt the comparison yet.  ( I guess a lot of people here won't care, as long as the ending is the same. )

insanelysane's picture

The BLS also said that the economy has gained all the jobs lost in the recession.  Umm, they failed to mention that in the interim the population has grown and of course as ZHers know, the jobs gained are low wage.

onewayticket2's picture

isnt central planning (and communication) great? 

DavidC's picture

If I remember the figures correctly, it will need +325,000 every month over the next five years to get back to pre 'recession' levels (sorry, but it ain't, it's a Depression).


elwind45's picture

It was a numbers wash? Not a wages comparison

SDShack's picture

Recovery Summer v6.0.... and counting.

spastic_colon's picture

boy was I wrong.....I should get a job in economics


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Sudden Debt's picture

Just solve this easy math problem:

1 + 1 = 3


explain why it's 3

spastic_colon's picture

I see what you did there.....or I didn' I right?  Maybe I should be in politics.

Sudden Debt's picture

1 = 1

+ = 1

1 = 1

   = 3


I'll give you a A+ anyway because our "no poster left behind" programm but... you didn't get the job... 

spastic_colon's picture

aahhhh.....I see now....thanks anyway I don't need the job with all my free shit army gear and money, and with the A+ at least I can flunk out of a good school now.


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BandGap's picture

Clearly a significan figure problem. The actual data is as follows -

1.3 (rounds to 1) + 1.2 (rounds to 1) = 3 (2.5 rounds to 3)

I could werk for the gubmint.