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Peak Bubble 2.0: The Market Is Now Exactly As Overvalued As It Was At The Last Bubble Peak
According to this chart from JPM the market's forward P/E ratio now is precisely 15.2x. What was it at precisely the last bubble peak on October 9, 2007? 15.2x.
Everyone knows what happened next.
Source: JPM
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We have another year of this, guys. August 2015 is when stuff gets really fun.
They'll be some bad days in between, but DJIA 18K by next June is a distinct possibility.
It will only make the next crash more destructive.....and honestly, quite fun. I have *zero* dollars in the market.
"August 2015 is when stuff gets really fun."- yes, world bank IMF U.N deadline for trasnsition to a new world currencie/trade mechanism using SDRs...?
Time is running out, and the BRIICs want a better deal...
hedge accordingly.
From my reading of the press releases from the World Bank/IMF, Jan. 2015
is the deadline for the COMPLETION of the transistion to the SDR.
Where are you guys getting Aug. 2015 from ?
Global Bankster class is make more bubble than is Boris in bath after large bowl of borsch.
(Boris is apologies profuse for persistent propound of alliteration in personal prose)
This time is different.... lol.
At least back in '00 and '07 investors had the option of fleeing the stockmarket into treasuries.
But where the hell can they go to now?
Who's insane enough to lock their money away for 10 years for a pitiful 2.7% annual return?
With REAL inflation (not the fictional manipulated number produced by the FED) currently running at 3%+ you'd be losing money all the way.
I'll give you a hint: It starts with G and ends with OLD...
Instructions on how to operate this rigged market came from a shampoo bottle...
Wash, rinse, repeat.
This chart simily says that we've hit the 15.2x PE of the last cycle.
The real target for the FED is the 25x PE of the prior cycle in 2000. The market target for the FED is another 70% upside easy.
I'm not saying it is right, but it is the alternative fake world we are living in.
That's right, the case has been made for momentum and and more upside to a higher than average p/e.
Play the risk reward game closely
“They” have to keep the insanity up as long as possible going into the mid-terms and they can print all the Ponzi paper it takes to bid the scam up a lot further.
It will take an event external to finance per se to yank the rug out from under them.
I've been stroking it to this chart porn for a couple years now. When are we going to get to the good part? Can I just fast forward a bit? I'm starting to get raw.
Stocks up a lot recently. Residential real estate is up in many markets. Rolex watch prices are very high.
But, the BRICs have some problems. Obamacare sign-up at the local low-end mall?
Most people are not feeling any richer...
"Peak Wealth?"
http://tinyurl.com/ny475e6
A little correction:
Its starts with a "G" and never gets old.
Chances are pretty good that you will see some capital appreciation in those treasuries before this is all over with. That is of course if the dollar doesn't collapse before then. If it does you better have some PMs in your possession.
Very real chance its soon.
Did you see the dingy Harry tried to slip the IMF reforms into the Ukraine sanctions bill ?
Looks like someone is taking the G20 ulimatum at face value.
Seems like panic is setting in.
Haven't seen this yet, link please?
Doesn't this ultimately help the bubble in stocks grow? In 2000, you could earn 6.2% and maybe that was tempting but like you said, you now will lose money in treasuries. Not until the coyote looks down and realizes there is nothing below it will people go running to treasuries. People will gladly pay to protect their money instead of losing 80% in stocks.
Exactly, tar. Preservation of capital comes before return on capital.
In my mind there is no real market anywhere. Treasuries and interest rates in general are false. Stocks get the bubble as money tries to find a return and cannot make any interest being loaned. This inflates real estate to a certain extent. Real estate cannot get too hot, though until incomes start rising again. Obamacare has put a wet blanket on the economy.
Frankly, I do not know where to put any money. Even PM's are artificially suppressed and no one knows how or when it will end, exceptly badly some time in the future.
Even PM's are artificially suppressed
At least they're shiny and they ring.
Buy 30yr treasury STRIPS here and you can make 50%+ if the yield falls to 1.75%, same as Japan's. what's not to like?
Goldbugs will lose a ton here.
I think this is THE TIME.
If JPM wants to play puppetmaster and make the market to go down, this would be a good way to do it.
This time is different. The Fed and government regulators learned the lesson and will prevent any market plunges in the future. Invest with confidence. </sarc>
You guys are forgetting that this is all part of the script to get us ready for the false flag alien invasion to cull the herd and usher in the NWO and one world currency.
I can't make this shit up, seriously?
Happy Friday.
You are offending my olfactories with odorous off-gassing of overdone borscht.
Pretty profound prose, pal.
So good to have you back, Boris. I was afraid that you were a victim of the bloodless Crimean "hostilities".
And you just revealed the real source of Russia's vast reserves of NG.
You remind me of Niklos Molnar
August 2015 is Martin Armstrong's cycle turn date. But that also happens to be a big date on the Federal budget can-kicking calendar.
federal election year as well
Last big implosion was during the end of Bush Jr's reign of terror. Makes sense to let it happen again and then switch parties in the White House and pretend there is a real response to the audience on the stage.
You're correct Winston, but most likely, nothing will have been done, much less completed, by then.
So WWIII it will be then....?
Looking more and more like it. Unfortunately.
My guess is that the next (last) "Wold War" will look a little like the stalemate portion of WWI - basically Russia, the EU, China and the US will secure their sectors of control and will mostly "sit in the trenches" repelling any incursions.
Actual all-out conflict will be way too expensive for any of the participants to endure/survive.
“I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.” ~ Albert Einstein
What you mean, nuffing? Healthcare.gov will be nearly operational by then. Obamacare enrollment goals will be surpassed every mumf.
One thing is for sure, if you all think 2015, then it is not the time.
Well, it's in writing at the IMF/UN, so if they don't deliver than the very integrity/viability of the U.N/IMF dies and we return to the protectionist world that existed before (with considerably more people and considerably less real resources).
It becomes self-aware at 2:14 a.m. Eastern time, August 29th.
A week after my birthday. Nice. I'll at least get laid one more time.
First delay
RE
I didn't know about the IMF thing (interesting), but *I* am ascertaining this projection from the fact that Congress passed a budget through Aug 2015 to avoid the debt ceiling crap.
They essentially kicked the can right up until the election season starts. That is going to be a complete fucking disaster, and I think ala 2011 (where the DOW lost -420 on a Friday, high irony along with it losing -777 in a day in 2009) it will take bonds from all types of countries, with it.
Add to my "economic crises/significant downturns happen at the end of POTUS terms" theory, and the continued Fed mini taper, that's when *I* foresee the next big issue in the markets coming.
Unfortunately most (probably all) of the BRIICS are controlled puppet states.
It's all theater.
ori
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2010/06/11/motion-picture-this/
yep. also known as "putting in a market bottom" before the collapse that everyone knows is coming. hence "we'll call it a correction instead."
If Facebook is heading to five bucks from here that should get people's attention.
Google just split...now heading to 30?
Those two alone could take off 1000 points on the Nasdaq.
Amzn, AAPL NFLX PCLN TSLA Homebuilders, banks
Not necessarily, even oligarchs feel like they are getting a bad deal sometimes. Yes the oligarchs are in control, but they come from many different backgrounds, ethnicities, and countries.
This is a simple truth, I thought that you were all about simple truths etc.
All the world is indeed a stage, the majority of actors on the stage have been white men, the majortiy being from the west, during the last 50 years..
Are you saying that the eastern oligarchs don't want to have a turn, or that they will continute to be ignored even though the majority of sheep hail from their territory...
We remain a tribal species, even to this day...
LOP, I think we might differ on the degree of weirdness in this game.
This is a long running organic simulation.
It is a Pyr-amid.
ori
We're all like the ancient jews, sitting in the outer vestibule and wondering what the priests are doing in the holy of holies.
kind of off topic but not really...
what did i tell u about the Silver chart today...just another way to confirm how fraudulent the metal markets r...
now how often do Gold and Silver trade opposite of 1 another????
and how many times has Silver attemtpted to go thru the $20 dollar phony paper price last month and this week only to be sold back down at the close in London and on the Comex????
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html
aint no coincidences....
interesting, had that been my readings i would have posted a link
sell all your gold and buy stocks, NOW!
Friday afternoon Janis Joplin: Maybe
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=caiBo_wTxrY
skip the first 25 sec intro
Fish entrails or magic crystal ball for your prognostications?
Not sure I want to re-experience what I experienced in 2007-2008. It was the worst time in my life financially & emotionally.
"As they were..."
Fixed it.
Evangeline Adams says BTFD!!!
Nice title. Are the new Tylers black?
Ebonic plague...
it's fucking everywhere...
Followed up by:
What was it at...
Okay, that was pretty funny.
Fooled me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on...ehhh...uhm, I deserve to be fucked.
BUY BUY BUY!
Value is meaningless when the cost of "money" is zero to the counterfeiters.
Maybe exactly that will turn out to be more of a problem than thought...
Given the endgame is the death of capitalism, I don't think they see any of this as a problem, but rather, yet another opportunity.
We're the ones with the problems. Like how to escape the chokehold AND the gun to the head, all without standing out in any crowd.
10/9/07......my babies bday.
then they broke into my car at the hospital that night....a form of congrats.
What signs!! jeez.
Those are some motivated babies.
damn it JPM for wrecking the party, now I have to wait for 18.6x while the fed proves you wrong!
:::: : : : ::::
it is a moving target given the fiat currency.
Bubblishious.
Talking Heads - What A Day That Washttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YMfEB1jRWw8
WHITE FLAG !!!
JANET YELLEN WAVES WHITE FLAG ON HOUSINGhttp://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2014/04/04/Washington-Wall-Stree...
Sucking the air out of the Momo Bubbles. Ahhh... bubbles Yellin.
I won't hold my breath waiting for prices to come down to affordable levels.
My guess is the "New & Improved" Fannie and Freddie replacement will absorb all of this shit into one giant black hole. Triple A rated, of course.
Short of the type of hyperinflation that the Fed can't ignore, I can see no set of circumstances that would prompt them to rase rates in 2015 or ever. At what point will the economy be strong enough to take away the punchbowl? With welfare statism and regultation/cronyism/rent seeking on the rise in this country, the economy is doomed to suffer the type of stagnation that has plagued Japan and the EU.
There will never be a rate increase. The cost of servicing the debt at any level above 3.5% is too much for the system to bare. We will see a new currency before we ever see an increase in rates.
+10
Why this fact is always lost on people blows me away. Rates can't go up! It's not that they won't, they can't! There would be nothing to pin rates too...
The title on this article should be renamed "Come All Shorts. Goldman needs more Muppets".
I love the way that while everyone openly admits that the FED and its partner banks are in complete control, they seem to still make fundamental arguments on why things are falling and pretend that it is uncontrolled. Reality IMO is that the status quo decided it was time for a little selloff and are looking for another round of muppets to short the market. Next, they force the market up and slaughter the next round of muppets. Rinse and Repeat..
Mom and Pop still haven't put their 401Ks and IRAs back into stocks. Until that happens, the market will keep rising. Someone has to be the bagholder.
Mine has sat in all cash for nearly ten years. Well, cash "equivalents" such as GICs, since they broke the MM.
Makes a decent piggy-bank to borrow against, and that's about the extent of it's value.
These banksters and the like have pathological brains.
Strong support below 700!
C'mon....BTFATH
i'm almost tempted to turn on CNBS to watch those fuktards try to explain NAZ -100...
It is snowing in Wisconsin today.
I went to Wisconsin once. Ate cheese curds till I puked and froze my ass off. Pretty girls though!!!
Look to weekly Options expiries for a clue.
When ANYTHING a bit out of the ordinary happens, look at relevant derivatives.
That could account ffor 75% of the decline all by itself. The rest of it, just normal action, liquidations b 4 the weekend, taking proifts.
Hey if you can't beat 'em, join 'em. I'm as big a skeptic of this sewer called a market as the next guy but I loaded up on a solid blue chip the last dip and will hold it till I'm ready to cash it out and buy a little house/apartment abroad.
Power to ya. Just be sure to consider the peak capacity of the teller cage window...
Good move.
When this bubble bursts, it will take the scammers a very long time to rebuild any sort of confidence and get muppets excited enough to throw their money into the WS casino. The new born crop of suckers just doesn't have that disposable cash to "invest" in a rigged market. The slowdown in consumer spending is a direct result of diminishing wages. Since there is not going to be an upside to any of this, they might as well close the markets after the next crash.
True, a new sucker is born every minute. Just that the new suckers are paying entitlements for the old suckers and their incomes are significantly lower than any suckers before them. Good luck surviving in this economy.
This is a generational shift for sure. Decades of impact at minimum.
At my age (46) you gotta have the foresight to keep the ball rolling. No way we can afford to keep paying pensions and retirement income for the oldies who simply refuse to die, popping viagra and living it up until their last breath. No concern for anybody else. I know enough of the geezers and see their attitudes. Sorry, if that sounds harsh. Maybe they deserve to live on everybody else's dime for 30 years after they stopped working. Hard to tell /sarc
Well when it blows up...the scammers will have owned everything and probably rounded up the sheeps and moved them into the sewage system like in Demolition Man.
No need to pity the older generation...when everything blows up, at least they dont have more years of hell to deal with in the future.
That's what I was going to say. Once this thing blows for real, the not-in-the-club survivors will find themselves in one form of prison camp or another.
There will never be a recovery, because they've worked so long to ensure it cannot ever happen again.
We are unwanted competition.
As for the issue of control? It's being rendered moot by dependence upon The Beast. It's not very hard to control someone who knows you're their only chance at survival.
Right, and implanted smart devices will be the mark of the beast. I just gave all my ZH friends the next wave in the technology roller coaster. Implanted smart devices...
GET OUT OF THE CITIES BEFORE TSHTF. Go find some inconsequential Hooterville and hang with the rubes until TPTB start rounding up the sheeple. This will give you a head start when it comes time to run. DO NOT, I REPEAT, DO NOT ALLOW YOURSELF TO BE TAKEN TO A "FACILITY". We all know how much our beloved leaders and their minions care for us.
walkure, regarding oldies who simply refuse to die---this is a very interesting observation. depression amongst seniors is very high. society has a mindset that simply refuses to face the fact many seniors would like to leave the planet. clearly it is better for the health of the financial bottom line, and often for the senior's peace of mind and desire to leave gracefully without further expense, discomfort or pain, aware of the costs and burden this puts upon those younger and the system as a whole.
It is not the old folk that we cannot afford but the ridiculous union pensions and healthcare of the government employees and teachers unions. That debt is in the trillions and they retire much younger than the typical private sector employee.The private sector has to scrape by to retire in order to fund the government and quasi-government pensions and healthcare.
If you are going to off people start with the government unions.
I'd start with banker and corporate welfare and then move to unions and the FSA. Indeed, deal with the first problem and the second will go away on its own.
YES, sir "we" can afford to pay forever the retirees' pensions, and social security checks, and Medicare.
IF the likes of Hank Paulson, Tim Geithner, and Jewish mafia protectors, Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke, Robert Rubin, Larry Summers, and Janet Yellen and Jack Lew can, without so much as single voice of opposition give a Quadrillion dollars and ongoing each month to the tune of $75 billion a month, to the Mafia on Wall Street for abject failure, the FED and Treasury can fulfill the obligations of those who at least paid a significant part of their incomes to savings.
If you don't think the general public deserves to recieve what it was contracted to receive, but believe it's ok for those above to give it to Wall Street for billion dollar bonuses, then maybe you need to revisit your premise snd think on it more thoroughly. And stop blaming your parents and grandparents.
In those earlier occasions there was not so much loose liquidity floating around as there is now, so that it is possible that the bubble will inflate a little longer.
Aren't you supposed to be able to 2X your money every five years?????
That sounds like a question from the trouble and strife.
Plenty of movement into bonds and gold today at the same time equities sell off. Smells like it might just be something that could develop into a trend.
A single birdsong, does not a Spring make.
So this graphic gives a second life to ZH...
After six years of pleading to the blind; if we get hit a second time, maybe, maybe, the people will see the writing on the wall (unless it gets manipulated by a new Dictator).
Must be why they shut down trading whenever there is a dip of 1% or more.
Will the markets ever be allowed to correct again? I wonder.
Because exogenous events took place in 2007/2008, out there in the real world.
And the fed wasn't half the beast then that it is now.
BTFATH still holds.
"everyone knows what happened next"
-7 years later from 2007, S&P 500 is up 20% to 1870 ???
If you stripped out the effect of all the corporate stock buybacks over the 1.5 years, what would the forward P/E look like.
BuybackFrenzyFUBAR.
P/E is a ratio and the "E" part is "per share", so if price and earnings hold constant then a buyback would lower the P/E because the E (earnings per share) in the denominator would be larger. That's holding stuff constant. In reality what seems to happen is people look at industry norms and deduce companies in this industry should have a P/E of say, 15. When a buyback lowers Company X's P/E momentarily for mathematical reasons, people bid up the "P" (price) on the lower P/E stock (relative to its industry) because it looks to be under valued. Its circle logic in my book.
I never make a buying decision on forward P/E. It's like betting on the weather. While "past performance is not a guarantee of future returns", its a whole lot better indicator than some rosy, crystal ball, smoke up my hinny prognostication.
"P/E is a ratio and the "E" part is "per share", so if price and earnings hold constant then a buyback would lower the P/E because the E (earnings per share) in the denominator would be larger." - CouldBeWorse
I realize that. If corporations were not repurchasing any shares, the P/E ratio for the S&P would certainly not be the same level as it is right now. That was my point. The "supposed " P/E ratio of 15.2 to 1 seems artificially low.
The NASDAQ still has a ways to go
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VGvHnDeS12o
If everyone knows what will happen next, then everyone will get a surprise.
print faster Yellen you fucking bitch!!!!!
"That's awful close, but that's not why... I'm so hard done by."-G.Downie
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dy-KGZzJTrI
quick smash metals......oh wait...already done
Can I just try, after reading the comments on this thread to put some type of context in here?
Listen to this, read it, and take it in. Doesnt matter what country you live in, where you are, or who you vote for. And for Dogs sake, if you dont believe me, fucking google it.
A minister of my government, yesterday, stood up in front of her other house of thieves, prostitutes and child molesters, and for 30 seconds appologised for stealing, getting caught, and then harrasing the over sight commitee to the tune of £90,000 for a second home expense allowance.
The over sight commitee recomended she must repay £45,000, and her various other filthy swine house representitives said no, £5,800 would be enough, and all she had to do to excuse her thieving was to say sorry.
This woman is called Maria Miller, a Conservative minister in this government. I own and work my own small business, you think perhaps I could do this type of behaviour and get away with it? What about any of you lot who work for someone? Could you get away with it? But a 'Public Servant' can, and can get the fucking prime minister of this bastard country to stand by her side while fraud, embezzlement, and outright fucking theft goes on, while expecting us fucking plebs to live on sweet fuck all as they rape us fucking blind.
And therein lies a very serious problem, sorry for the thread jack like, but these people, excuse me, these filthy fucking animals, no matter where they are from are all the same, there for themselves first, themselves second and themselves third.
They care not one iota what happens to our respective countries, nor for any one of us, nor the fucking markets for that matter, all they can do is enrich themselves at our expense, the dirty fucking child molesting bastards what they are. Its long past time where US, WE really should do something about these criminally insane cunts.
And that is precisely where context comes in. They couldnt give two fucks, and dont give two more even if you lot find out.
Hanging time is right upon us at this point, these filthy dirty cunts deserve the lot.
Just been listening abouth this fuckin' witch. How does an independent committee find she owes £45k then some govenrment cunts are able to step in and say, it's ok, she was only using other peoples money to house her fuckin' parents, slap her wrist for £5k.
Then on top of that she could barely shit an apology in front of parliament. 79 fuckin' words. She got over £1100 per word. WTF. Thieving cunts. You are right inthemix.
I am trying to look after a family, run a business, clear debts, be a good person. And this mutherfuckin' bitch is stealing from us all. Mutherfucker. I am pissed too.
Pissed Jmcadg?
I dont fucking think so friend. This cunt should be skinned alive, just you try doing what she done and get off by saying sorry.
This is institutionalised, in-bred, outright, criminal, theft.
Fuck me sideways blind, hanging is far too good for the likes of these cunts who would reduce you to £52 fucking quid a week.
I am fucking seething, in fact fucking boiling with rage. This cunt had better pray she never meets me.
+1000 inthemix
But ITM96...
There are only 4 zeros involved. How could you possibly take that seriously? It's like getting angry with your kid after they take a 20p piece which happened to be lying on the table. I'm surprised she even bothered to mention it, and well, she knows people. The real looting involves many more zeros. 7, 8, 9 zeros in fact.
What was it the dogfather said? One PISSANT* with a briefcase can steal more money than 10,000 men with guns.
*PISSANT = People In SuitS Are Not Trustworthy. Esp. people in suits with lapel pins...
OBTW: I don't think we are going to make it to 2016. I'm not even sure we're going to make it to 2015. I don't think they can hold this scam together for that long...
http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/pissant
Don't worry...nobody could have predicted it...well except all the people who did...
This is definately bullish
Can't get too excited after all it is a no POMO day
Bernanke & Geithner walk away from this shit as fine upstanding public servants.
P/E is one thing, but how do the corporations' balance sheets compare now vs then?
Nothing happens next. There is no correlation to 15.2x earnings a max for earnings. As long as the Auntie Yellen is pumping the markets will rise.. the time to worry is September 2016.
Since GW took over from clinton 'things' started to break down preceding the new president being sworn in..
Everyone knows what happened next.
The 1% got richer.
CORRECTION the .01% get richer -- protiect the reputation of the 1% middle class
One trader said : "Just because it's high it does not mean it's in a bubble." I'm not that smart but....
If everyone says it's August 2015...........guess what? It won't be. Surprise!!
You can't pinpoint this shit. I'd be more apt to believe that it would start flying apart right now than that far forward.
I have no crystal ball and no one else around here does either.
My only question is I wonder if it will erase 100% of gains like the last 2 times?
Personally I think the sooner it starts flying apart the better because it's hard to tell what kinds of laws etc our hair-brained fucking morons in DC will try to fuck us with...........take the guns etc etc etc.
i live in vancouver and i have never seen as many boats parked in the port . usually 6 or 7 now ican walk across the inlet on them.
The stock, bond, commodity and currency exchanges are gambling dens whereby the more powerful traders with deep pockets move the markets to maximize their own profits at the expense of the remaining not so powerful players. The big boys have enormous money power to move the markets in the direction which results in maximum profits for themselves. They effectively use the media to lure the other players in the market to a position where they would incur maximum loss.
The markets continue to rise till all short positions in the market are covered and the majority of traders move to the long side. Once this is done the market falls till all long positions are closed and short positions undertaken. Then rinse and repeat. The price mechanism has little to do with the actual demand, supply, fundamentals or state of the economy.
www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article40231.html
Homey don't play dat.
Longest and biggest suckers rally in history!
2000 and 2007 _were_ different.
2000 was a genuine stock market bubble.
'The world is changing because of the Internet' (which was actually true) was simply an up-to-date version of
'the world is changing as a result of the development of the railways' (which was also true).
And what was the same was that the profits from both these new huge industries were _very_ much less than hoped.
However, 2007 was a credit market bubble, which spilled over (via the stocks of investment banks and others with large credit exposure) to the broader stock market.
What has happened since is that in order to prop a collapsing credit market, interest rates have been reduced to artifically low levels (and there have been other direct interventions).
So if you are looking for a stock-market problem, you should be looking for the 25x forward p/e figure of 2000.
Personally, I think the problem will come when (despite ultra-low interest rates) there is a revulsion against incurring more debt.
Since the current system requires ever more debt to survive, at that point the current system will come to a messy end.
But although I think the US will suffer great damage because of this, I don't think it will come off worst, mainly because the US has always been very adaptable, and also because the debt expansion was mostly a post WW2 thing; the early history of the US was of careful folk who avoided debt.
The real problems are in Emerging Markets, and Europe ex-Germany.
There are going to be a lot of poor and angry folk in Europe, and such folk look to start wars...this time maybe against Germany (envy against a prosperous non-debt laden society).
Watson