Peak Bubble 2.0: The Market Is Now Exactly As Overvalued As It Was At The Last Bubble Peak

Tyler Durden's picture

According to this chart from JPM the market's forward P/E ratio now is precisely 15.2x. What was it at precisely the last bubble peak on October 9, 2007? 15.2x.

Everyone knows what happened next.

Source: JPM

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Shizzmoney's picture

We have another year of this, guys.  August 2015 is when stuff gets really fun.

They'll be some bad days in between, but DJIA 18K by next June is a distinct possibility.

It will only make the next crash more destructive.....and honestly, quite fun.  I have *zero* dollars in the market.

LawsofPhysics's picture

"August 2015 is when stuff gets really fun."-  yes, world bank IMF U.N deadline for trasnsition to a new world currencie/trade mechanism using SDRs...?

Time is running out, and the BRIICs want a better deal...

hedge accordingly.

Winston Churchill's picture

From my reading of the press releases from the World Bank/IMF, Jan. 2015

is the deadline for the COMPLETION of the transistion to the SDR.

Where are you guys getting Aug. 2015 from ?

Boris Alatovkrap's picture

Global Bankster class is make more bubble than is Boris in bath after large bowl of borsch.

(Boris is apologies profuse for persistent propound of alliteration in personal prose)

nope-1004's picture

This time is different.... lol.


furgheddubouddit's picture

At least back in '00 and '07 investors had the option of fleeing the stockmarket into treasuries.

But where the hell can they go to now?

Who's insane enough to lock their money away for 10 years for a pitiful 2.7% annual return?

With REAL inflation (not the fictional manipulated number produced by the FED) currently running at 3%+ you'd be losing money all the way.

in4mayshun's picture

I'll give you a hint: It starts with G and ends with OLD...

I am more equal than others's picture




Instructions on how to operate this rigged market came from a shampoo bottle...

Wash, rinse, repeat.


zaphod's picture

This chart simily says that we've hit the 15.2x PE of the last cycle. 

The real target for the FED is the 25x PE of the prior cycle in 2000. The market target for the FED is another 70% upside easy. 

I'm not saying it is right, but it is the alternative fake world we are living in.

Cruel Aid's picture

That's right, the case has been made for momentum and and more upside to a higher than average p/e.

Play the risk reward game closely

Manthong's picture

“They” have to keep the insanity up as long as possible going into the mid-terms and they can print all the Ponzi paper it takes to bid the scam up a lot further.

It will take an event external to finance per se to yank the rug out from under them.

EscapingProgress's picture

I've been stroking it to this chart porn for a couple years now. When are we going to get to the good part? Can I just fast forward a bit? I'm starting to get raw.

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Stocks up a lot recently.  Residential real estate is up in many markets.  Rolex watch prices are very high.

But, the BRICs have some problems.  Obamacare sign-up at the local low-end mall?  

Most people are not feeling any richer...

"Peak Wealth?"

thewhigs's picture

A little correction:

Its starts with a "G" and never gets old.

Dr. Engali's picture

Chances are pretty good that you will see some capital appreciation in those treasuries before this is all over with. That is of course if the dollar doesn't collapse before then. If it does you better have some PMs in your possession.

Winston Churchill's picture

Very real chance its soon.

Did you see the dingy Harry tried to slip the IMF reforms into the Ukraine sanctions bill ?

Looks like someone is taking the G20 ulimatum at face value.

Seems like panic is setting in.'s picture

Haven't seen this yet, link please? 

tarsubil's picture

Doesn't this ultimately help the bubble in stocks grow? In 2000, you could earn 6.2% and maybe that was tempting but like you said, you now will lose money in treasuries. Not until the coyote looks down and realizes there is nothing below it will people go running to treasuries. People will gladly pay to protect their money instead of losing 80% in stocks.

FreedomGuy's picture

Exactly, tar. Preservation of capital comes before return on capital.

In my mind there is no real market anywhere. Treasuries and interest rates in general are false. Stocks get the bubble as money tries to find a return and cannot make any interest being loaned. This inflates real estate to a certain extent. Real estate cannot get too hot, though until incomes start rising again. Obamacare has put a wet blanket on the economy.

Frankly, I do not know where to put any money. Even PM's are artificially suppressed and no one knows how or when it will end, exceptly badly some time in the future.

Wahooo's picture

Even PM's are artificially suppressed

At least they're shiny and they ring.

madbraz's picture

Buy 30yr treasury STRIPS here and you can make 50%+ if the yield falls to 1.75%, same as Japan's. what's not to like?

Goldbugs will lose a ton here.

zerozulu's picture

I think this is THE TIME.

eclectic syncretist's picture

If JPM wants to play puppetmaster and make the market to go down, this would be a good way to do it.

Stuck on Zero's picture

This time is different.  The Fed and government regulators learned the lesson and will prevent any market plunges in the future.  Invest with confidence. </sarc>


Crash Overide's picture

You guys are forgetting that this is all part of the script to get us ready for the false flag alien invasion to cull the herd and usher in the NWO and one world currency.

I can't make this shit up, seriously?

Happy Friday.

Drachma's picture

You are offending my olfactories with odorous off-gassing of overdone borscht.

813kml's picture

So good to have you back, Boris.  I was afraid that you were a victim of the bloodless Crimean "hostilities".

And you just revealed the real source of Russia's vast reserves of NG.

Buckaroo Banzai's picture

August 2015 is Martin Armstrong's cycle turn date. But that also happens to be a big date on the Federal budget can-kicking calendar.

walküre's picture

federal election year as well

tarsubil's picture

Last big implosion was during the end of Bush Jr's reign of terror. Makes sense to let it happen again and then switch parties in the White House and pretend there is a real response to the audience on the stage.

LawsofPhysics's picture

You're correct Winston, but most likely, nothing will have been done, much less completed, by then. 

So WWIII it will be then....?

centerline's picture

Looking more and more like it.  Unfortunately.

Citxmech's picture

My guess is that the next (last) "Wold War" will look a little like the stalemate portion of WWI - basically Russia, the EU, China and the US will secure their sectors of control and will mostly "sit in the trenches" repelling any incursions.  

Actual all-out conflict will be way too expensive for any of the participants to endure/survive. 

Second Class Citizen5's picture

“I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.” ~ Albert Einstein

Ungaro's picture

What you mean, nuffing? will be nearly operational by then. Obamacare enrollment goals will be surpassed every mumf.

irishlink's picture

One thing is for sure, if you all think 2015, then it is not the time.

LawsofPhysics's picture

Well, it's in writing at the IMF/UN, so if they don't deliver than the very integrity/viability of the U.N/IMF dies and we return to the protectionist world that existed before (with considerably more people and considerably less real resources).

TrumpXVI's picture

 It becomes self-aware at 2:14 a.m. Eastern time, August 29th.

NoDebt's picture

A week after my birthday.  Nice.  I'll at least get laid one more time.

Shizzmoney's picture


"August 2015 is when stuff gets really fun."-  yes, world bank IMF U.N deadline for trasnsition to a new world currencie/trade mechanism using SDRs...?

Where are you guys getting Aug. 2015 from ?

I didn't know about the IMF thing (interesting), but *I* am ascertaining this projection from the fact that Congress passed a budget through Aug 2015 to avoid the debt ceiling crap.  

They essentially kicked the can right up until the election season starts.  That is going to be a complete fucking disaster, and I think ala 2011 (where the DOW lost -420 on a Friday, high irony along with it losing -777 in a day in 2009) it will take bonds from all types of countries, with it. 

Add to my "economic crises/significant downturns happen at the end of POTUS terms" theory, and the continued Fed mini taper, that's when *I* foresee the next big issue in the markets coming.

Oh regional Indian's picture

Unfortunately most (probably all) of the BRIICS are controlled puppet states.

It's all theater.


disabledvet's picture

yep. also known as "putting in a market bottom" before the collapse that everyone knows is coming. hence "we'll call it a correction instead."

If Facebook is heading to five bucks from here that should get people's attention.
Google just heading to 30?

Those two alone could take off 1000 points on the Nasdaq.

Hal n back's picture

Amzn, AAPL NFLX PCLN TSLA Homebuilders, banks



LawsofPhysics's picture

Not necessarily, even oligarchs feel like they are getting a bad deal sometimes.  Yes the oligarchs are in control, but they come from many different backgrounds, ethnicities, and countries.

This is a simple truth, I thought that you were all about simple truths etc.

All the world is indeed a stage, the majority of actors on the stage have been white men, the majortiy being from the west, during the last 50 years..

Are you saying that the eastern oligarchs don't want to have a turn, or that they will continute to be ignored even though the majority of sheep hail from their territory...

We remain a tribal species, even to this day...

Oh regional Indian's picture

LOP, I think we might differ on the degree of weirdness in this game.

This is a long running organic simulation. 

It is a Pyr-amid.


Wahooo's picture

We're all like the ancient jews, sitting in the outer vestibule and wondering what the priests are doing in the holy of holies.

Kaiser Sousa's picture

kind of off topic but not really...

what did i tell u about the Silver chart today...just another way to confirm how fraudulent the metal markets r...

now how often do Gold and Silver trade opposite of 1 another????

and how many times has Silver attemtpted to go thru the $20 dollar phony paper price last month and this week only to be sold back down at the close in London and on the Comex????

aint no coincidences....