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Mortgage Originations Plunge To Lowest On Record

Tyler Durden's picture




 

New mortgage originations fell over 23% month-over-month and a stunning 47% year-to-date according to Black Knight (formerly LPS). As they show in their detailed presentation, with a 65% year-over-year drop, new mortgage originations are at their lowest since their records began and what is perhaps more concerning is prepayment speeds signal further declines are ahead and the ratio of serious deterioration to foreclosure (along with huge numbers of loan mods due to reset) suggest the housing market is anything but recovering fundamentally with the average loan in foreclosure now 2.6 years past due.

 

 

But apart from that - prices are up so that must be good right? as affordability for the average joe collapses.

 

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Mon, 04/07/2014 - 10:47 | 4632186 JJSF
JJSF's picture

European housing market doing fine. But getting them to take loans has been difficult

http://signalinea.com/update-on-eur-position-we-started-last-week/

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 10:49 | 4632196 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

well the 30 years loans are gone and young people now need to deposit 75K before they can get a loan.

So now it's up to mommy and daddy to pay up for babygirl and boy.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 10:55 | 4632222 y3maxx
y3maxx's picture

...Soon all of this USSA map will be awashed in "Red"...no pun intended.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 11:01 | 4632246 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I see... a tungsten hammer in washington.... and I'm pretty certain there's a cicle forming also...

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 11:04 | 4632262 Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

People argue with me why am I a renter. I tell them the housing market is a seller's market that is way overpriced. It is best to wait about 3-4 years. When they are financially ruined, I will be living in their former house. Bitchez!!

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 11:21 | 4632337 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

You may end up being right about that.

The biggest "trend" I see, is that it's not just "location, location, location".  It's now mansions vs. regular guy houses.  The high end is still cranking (it's just another investable asset in a world awash in printed money).  The low end, however, is flat on it's back and declining.  First time buyers are sparse.  Investors buying to rent don't pay full retail for those places, which also keeps the prices depressed.

 

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 11:35 | 4632424 Keyser
Keyser's picture

You are correct. I made an offer on a upper-end home with some acerage over the weekend. Someone came in right after me and bumped the offer $20K over the seller's asking price. I won't get in a bidding war, so it's on to the next listing... Problem is that in my area the upper-end properties don't last 24 hours on MLS... 

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 12:24 | 4632598 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

The opposite here.  Anything over $225k (5x+ avg fam income) sits unless it's perfect.  The mcmansions are starting to rot, country clubs opening up membership to the public, etc.

The low end is mercilessly bid (with middle of the road homes selling at a premium to 7 years ago)...  I presume stuffing hud tenants into it and making ~17%+ returns.  We're getting an incredible influx of indigents, as there are more people coming here than jobs.  Our infrastructure will be overrun within a decade at this pace, but it's still dramatically better for many folks than their present towns...  and anyone with any sense will have moved to the next town over before it goes down.

 

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 12:40 | 4632626 eatthebanksters
eatthebanksters's picture

I would really like to see some numbers...numbers of available borrowers during the liar loan phase and right now. I'd like to see the average loan amount for which these borrowers qualified then and now.  I'd like to see the difference total home values from 1996 to 2006 and same for total loans for then and for now.  I'd like to see a model that shows the impact of home prices based upon demand as a result of number of total borrowers, loose underwriting and qualifying conditions, interest rates and increasing home prices (past) and then the same model with tight underwriting critera and stable and/or deteriorating home prices.

Two things are missing from this equation today:  e-z loans (reducing the number of buyers dramatically), 2. Continued home price increases.  (Did I need to mention jobs ad income?)

I believe the Fed tried to resucitate a market that was dead and should have been buried.  I believe the amount of extra debt burden that was added to society was never going to be overcome.  The Fed tried to manipulate the situation but its catching up wth us.  It would have cost $4 to $5 trillion to write down the bad debt in 2008.  How many trillions have we thrown at the problem to fix it and its about to get bad again?

Something tells me that we are more underwater today relative to current market values vs. fundamental real values (in the stock market as well) and that our government is playing a very dangerous game and it is losing.

All that TPTB have done is kicked the can down the road....the great reset is coming and in the paraphrased words of Kyle Bass,"If we have a voluntary restructuring it will be painful, if we have an involuntary restructuring it will be VERY painful."

Any banker or politician that was complicit or lied about this ordeal from the beginning ought to be tarred and feathered, have all their assets taken away and they ought to be cast out in shame.  We have not seen the end of this mess and we won't until a real balance is found...and that means writing down trilllions of debt that was provided to suckers from vampire squid predators. If we'd have done it 6 years ago we'd be healing, but instead we are reopening a nasty wound.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 13:54 | 4632919 KidHorn
KidHorn's picture

The reason nothing gets fixed is we've hit a critical number of people who have nothing to lose. If you have nothing and someone is willing to loan you money and you have no collateral, you take it. What do you have to lose? The politicians are buying your vote with promises that this will continue and it will continue as long as the gov't is the one making all the risky loans. You would think responsible people wouldn't allow it. They're now outnumbered and hence don't have a say any more.

You can move to another country, but they're all doing the same thing. At some point workers will get fed up and stop working. They'll see themselves as suckers for going to work. Who knows when that will happen.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 16:11 | 4633345 Squid-puppets a...
Squid-puppets a-go-go's picture

at this stage in the cycle, if you got $50 or $75k for your deposit, you'd be an idiot to buy.

put that cash into physical gold + silver outside the matrix, wait 3-5 years, and you'll be able to buy your house outright.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 16:13 | 4633355 Keyser
Keyser's picture

I should have mentioned that I live in Texas to put things into perspective... The influx of people moving to Texas has placed a premium on properties. Especially folks that move here from California after selling their McMansion there... From the proceeds they can afford a new McMansion in Texas, plus all new furniture, 2 new cars and have some $$$ left over... I have run into more than one family with this exact story... This caused by the differential in property prices between Ca and Tx... A $1 million property in Ca can be a crackerbox, while in Texas it buys you one helluva house...

Tue, 04/08/2014 - 00:05 | 4634687 IREN Colorado
IREN Colorado's picture

We're seeing real increases in offers on the order of 5% per month right now in Colorado. A year ago the market was flat. What's changed?

Obamacare has been delayed. Okay; Real employment participation has never been lower, sure, but, International investors are landing with suitcases full of bearer bonds at DIA every single day (to invest in anything other than their home lands where the economies are even more sketchy than ours), so that represents an increase in demand; Western US oil interests and their employees are realizing solid income gains right here in the Rocky Mountain West, right, where there is fracking there is economic growth, no mystery there; Lots of area Vets coming home with VA benefits, more debt? roger that!........ 

Yes, in some markets the price increases might be justified, no, make that explainable, at least for a while. Is this healthy long term????????????????

I kinda think not............

  • Obamacare will be implemented and thus form a massive drag on the economy, sooner than later.
  • International investors will eventually dry up. When they get a sniff of a pull back in the Colorado RE market they'll run for another shelter. Whatever that is and where-ever that is.
  • The oil "bid'ness" is being crushed by the Feds through taxes and regulation and global warming BS. Also, oil demand drops in recessions/depressions. That income will dry up leaving US in the next Colorado bust.
  • Vets using their VA benefits to buy homes will loose them as soon as they are downsized out of the military as part of the upcoming rounds of cuts. Where else are they going to work in this economy? Their grandparents are working at Wally's world and McDonalds!

Asset Bubble much?

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 14:17 | 4632999 studfinder
studfinder's picture

NoDebt-

I know of a builder of high end homes.  Recently I was told the he is working on 5 right now and 2 of them are above 2 million.  I guess business is very good right now.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 11:26 | 4632380 Professor Fate
Professor Fate's picture

I'm with you Vamp.  Even though I'm a Vet and can get no money down financing, I still rent.  Prices are up 40% in my area of Florida and everyone can't understand why I don't buy.  I do buy...Morgan silver dollars every month.

Fate the Magnificent
"Push the Button, Max"

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 12:34 | 4632628 slightlyskeptical
slightlyskeptical's picture

Why didn't you buy 3 years ago?

You could now have many more of those Morgan dollars.

Buying is actually cheaper than renting, especially over the long term, even at these ridiculous prices.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 12:49 | 4632679 jbvtme
jbvtme's picture

i rent a house which would cost me twice to own (with taxes and maintenance). housing prices will be cut by at least half within five years.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 12:54 | 4632695 Blankenstein
Blankenstein's picture

 

"Buying is actually cheaper than renting, especially over the long term, even at these ridiculous prices"

 

False - this is a bunch of realwhore blather 

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 15:33 | 4633220 syntaxterror
syntaxterror's picture

B-b-b-b-b-ut I got to write-off the $40,000 in interest I paid this year.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 15:43 | 4633257 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

"this is a bunch of realwhore blather"

True, because in ten years or so when you decide to move, you'll get much, much more money back when you sell.

Oh, wait - did I get that wrong?  You mean that you cannot even hope to break even when you are tossed out at the whim of a landlord?

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 16:20 | 4633380 Squid-puppets a...
Squid-puppets a-go-go's picture

my father lives in a small town in new south wales that is about 150 years old that was bypassed by changes in industry or transport and other main sources of prosperity. Barely a new house has been built there in the last 30 years, no one spends on maintenance. You can buy a 3 bedroom house there for $100k. With builders wages and materials/taxes today, you couldnt build a house that meets regulation for less than $250k

If you think that the price will be higher by magnitudes in 10 years, you dont realise that the entirity of America is akin to that small town. We are 7 years into the downturn in places like Spain and the price of real estate there is STILL dropping and expected to go down another 10-20%

the US Govt missed its opportunity in 2008 to get back to honest markets, and so shall it share Spain's fate

 

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 11:05 | 4632264 goBackToSleep
goBackToSleep's picture

Looks like the drug cartels are holdin down the western border of mexico. Miami must be totally out of the import business.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 11:34 | 4632420 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

red states and green states---lets split this country in two using that criteria

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 13:55 | 4632926 KidHorn
KidHorn's picture

Better yet, let Florida and New York cede and form their own countries. That looks like it would eliminate 75% of the problem.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 16:21 | 4633383 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

I should hope that this time around the Confederacy makes to point to invade, not simply to secede.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 11:45 | 4632453 OH10DESERTER
OH10DESERTER's picture

when Mommy and Daddy have sucked up all the wealth through medicare, SS, and Pensions...there be no funds left for da chitlins to earn

 

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 11:50 | 4632468 OldPhart
OldPhart's picture

Prepayments!

I love fucking up a bank's plans.  My thirty year is at a twenty five year now...a little at a time suddenly makes a hell of a difference.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 14:09 | 4632971 Parabox
Parabox's picture

turned my 30 year into a 5 year.  Now I only pay rent to the government.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 10:47 | 4632187 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

THAT'S WHY YOU SHOULD BUILD HOUSES MADE OUT OF SUGAR CANDY AND NOT CARDBOARD!!!

CARDBOARD STILL LASTS TO LONG!!!

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 10:51 | 4632202 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

No. Toilet paper..

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 10:53 | 4632213 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I don't know... using dollar bills to build a house... sounds expensive...

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 12:05 | 4632535 Emergency Ward
Emergency Ward's picture

Those wouldn't last long in Venezuela.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 10:56 | 4632225 Hubbs
Hubbs's picture

We should ask the three little pigs: Straw, wood, or brick.... and see if the wolf concurs.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 10:49 | 4632198 Obama_4_Dictator
Obama_4_Dictator's picture

Burn bitch...burn....can't say I feel sorry for these loser real estate fucks.  Eat shit fags!

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 10:51 | 4632207 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Now don't be holding back on us here..

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 10:57 | 4632231 Obama_4_Dictator
Obama_4_Dictator's picture

Well, it's unfair (yes, I know the world is unfair), all I'm asking for is the same pain and punishment for everyone.  Real Estate losers do nothing but lie, I think there is special place in hell for them, then if you are unwater you get to live for free! But if you have an ounce of equity, boom, you're gone!  Bullshit! No more rewarding the losres and punishing the smart folks. And Justice For All!

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 11:25 | 4632374 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

But there has never been a better time to buy!

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 13:44 | 4632876 ChargingHandle
ChargingHandle's picture

What trade is a fair way of life based on your analysis? 

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 15:36 | 4633227 syntaxterror
syntaxterror's picture

A fair trade? 

It probably won't involve YellenCoin.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 10:51 | 4632203 onewayticket2
onewayticket2's picture

the bluer the state, the redder the chart....

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 10:59 | 4632241 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

All of Florida is lit up like a Roman Candle.

New Tel Aviv...I mean New York has a tremendous number of schnorrers.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 10:52 | 4632211 asscannon101
asscannon101's picture

Guy I work with lived in his house and didn't make a mortgage payment for 4 years.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 10:55 | 4632226 Its_the_economy...
Its_the_economy_stupid's picture

thats a lot of buried silver!!!

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 11:12 | 4632298 asscannon101
asscannon101's picture

He barely saved a dime. No shit.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 13:20 | 4632793 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

I live in NY, inherited dad's home when he died in July 2009. Coming up on 5 years. In FC over 4 now. Crickets all I get from BofA.

Here is what I did:

Year 1: Played a lot of golf, drank heavily, kept house up minimum of repairs, bought some silver.

Year 2: Drank a little less, started thinking about possible windfall, did lots of research (lots of help from ZH Thanks!), figured I was in a good spot. Blew a lot of money on a broad in the country, bought more silver.

Year 3: Steady drinking, started actually paying down debt, looking at other RE options, couldn't believe I was still living rent and tax free (bank pays prop taxes), started paying down my own debt (CCs and HE on my original home that I began renting in year 2), moar silver.

Year 4: Really picked up the pace on paying down debt (all CCs closed out, zero balances, HE cut in half), sued bank for fraud, have their nuts in a vice and am seriously looking at getting the house F&C within 2 years (SOL runs out on the bank). Still drinking a good amount for mind balance.

Long story, short, if I had known I'd be here five years, I'd have begun saving and paring debt faster, and played less golf. Would not have been searching for alternatives, rather, putting the house to work (maybe do more repairs and rent out a room). I'd probably still be drinking, because I like it, but my finances would be much better. As it is, no CC debt (wiped out about 5K), and cut a hole in my HELOC while continuing to collect rent on my former home. I'm far ahead, but the holy grail is getting the FC action dismissed for failure to proceed and citing case law that their action did not stop the SOL clock. Either that or forcing them forward on my fraud case and negotiating a settlement at 1/3 the original amount.

The only questions now are: 1. How much will I pay for the house, if anything? 2. How much more pain can I inflict upon the bank?

As we used to say, I fell into some good shit. I'm above average on length of time in FC, even in NY state, and propects for whipping BofA are excellent, all without a lawyer (other scumsuckers).

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 14:02 | 4632948 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

If what you say is true, you're a piker and are at least part of the reason things are in the shape they're in.  You are then as 'bad' as the ones you are cursing.  I'm sure your deceased dad is proud...

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 14:19 | 4633004 Clycntct
Clycntct's picture

You forgot to add. Don't forget to go to church on Sunday and pray for the BankWankers.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 19:08 | 4633941 Offthebeach
Offthebeach's picture

At least he's maintaining the house. All I do is fix up fc flip houses. Typical shlock fake bling mcmansions. Poorly built and poorly painted when new. Never maintained by first and nothing done by the bank. No heat for years. Burst pipes from scam winterizing plumbers. Black mold. Mercenarially we do minimum slop repairs for quick buck flip speculators.

Kind of sad. When I was a kid a finished house was an accomplishment. Lots of old trade artists. Now? Might as well be doing meth, third shift Jack'n Box.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 10:54 | 4632217 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

Escape velocity.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 10:55 | 4632223 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

So are we getting more QE or is the FED going to wake up to the fact that QE is not a perpetual motion machine but a steroid with lethal consequences?

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 10:56 | 4632229 Its_the_economy...
Its_the_economy_stupid's picture

"Doctor, you're steroid patient patient will go smiling to the grave."

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 11:05 | 4632261 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

Perhaps they shoud put leveraged home buyers on a combination of Viagra and an anti depressant so that if they can't GET a fuck they won't GIVE a fuck.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 10:56 | 4632227 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

the redder is more debter?

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 10:56 | 4632228 pods
pods's picture

Northeast leading the pack again. That place is a disaster.  Unless people are banking their mortgage payment to buy their house at auction on the cheap?

pods

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 11:07 | 4632272 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

They're banking on Obama forgiving their debt when he heads out of office.

Things to do on final day in office:

Free Jon Corzine for life.

Forgive debt of sheeple.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 11:10 | 4632282 madcows
madcows's picture

Except for NH.... the only sort of Conservative state in the region.  Can't wait to see if the November elections see a Demoncratic smashing.  The last two presidential elections saw mostly democratic victories... albeit, with out of state voters being bussed in to claim "residency" at local hack homesteads.  FUCK YOU YOU FUCKING FRAUD VOTERS.  I think we should have public executions for voter fraud.  You fucking criminal election thieves should die!

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 11:17 | 4632319 adr
adr's picture

Voter fraud? The TV says there is no such thing. The videotapes of the same black people voting ten times outside Cleveland were faked, don't you know.

Perhaps the gang of Mexicans living in Massachusetts voting more than once? One of my favorite tactics is the "aunt" method. Move one black or hispanic into a neighborhood that a couple hundred people claim is their aunt and use her for residency.

I'm looking to move to New Hampshire. I have to work in Massachusetts, but if I have to live there I might shoot myself. The owner of the company said I could go live with all the libertarians and their guns in NH, I said "Don't tempt me."

You could try public executions for voter fraud, but you'll just be charged as a racist committing hate crimes.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 11:27 | 4632385 Its_the_economy...
Its_the_economy_stupid's picture

i'm in the NE, the house are auctioned on the court house steps, the banks bid the mortgage balance. then the house sit and fill w mold, the pools revert to swamps. themold grows up the walls, the house are vandalized. and still they sit. i have benn watching this for 4 years in AMAZEMENT! WTF?

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 13:00 | 4632713 Bunders
Bunders's picture

Central planning?

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 19:04 | 4633927 Clycntct
Clycntct's picture

That's the way the banks can call it a ASS Sit.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 12:01 | 4632516 indygo55
indygo55's picture

Democrats? Republicans? You still believe it matters? The INSIDERS and International bankers through the CFR decide whos turn it is. In the end it is all theatre. For a few months we will debate gay marriage and ilegal immigration and never talk about the FED and the endless debt, and the debasement of our currency. Those subjects are off limits and our candidates and incumbents and talking heads on the TV will spend millions and spread the moola around to those who tow the line keeping you stupid sheep entertained. Most people will never in their lives understand this. 

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 11:11 | 4632295 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

Unless people are banking their mortgage payment to buy their house at auction on the cheap?

 

 

+10 cents on the dollar.  Well played, Pods.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 13:27 | 4632813 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

pods, I'm in upstate NY (see comment above). I think most people around these parts are banking most of their mortgage payments in hopes of buying a better house for cash or a substantial (like 40-60%) down payment. I know I can buy a much better house than the foreclosed one I'm living in, for less than I owe, because prices are heading lower. That seems to be the bet around here.

Getting foreclosure notice: Not so good

Hanging in four years or more: Excellent

Fucking over bank: Priceless

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 10:58 | 4632234 rtalcott
rtalcott's picture

All I hear from the real estate people is that prices are up...of course...they are not selling anything either...

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 11:23 | 4632362 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

understanding the size of the housing bubble means simply understanding the size of the residency constructed.

the bottom line is the square footage allotted to living exploded in size from the 80's to the 90's to the 2000's to even today. As with "supersized cars" so must it be with "supersized homes." these prices must collapse to reflect the enormity of the expense in order to maintain a living situation that would make the Victorians blanche.

So sure..to certain foreign buyers this all seems like "a dream"...but as that dollar has clearly bottomed not it is the growth of the US economy that must sustain the higher prices...and simply put the whole regime is now collapsing again.

Bank of America is massively downsizing...we'll see about Wells Fargo. The irony of millions of homeless when in fact we have millions of homes lying vacant should be lost on no one. The good news i guess is that "it should be worse actually."

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 10:58 | 4632235 wmbz
wmbz's picture

Hang on a mimute now! I just listened to a guy on the radio telling how he went for a loser POS buger flipper to an expert house flipper, making over a $100,000 a month. He said I could also if I just sign up for his course. So now what do I do? I was going to become an RE expert millionair super flipper. Crap!

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 12:01 | 4632520 Emergency Ward
Emergency Ward's picture

The first thing to do is find a domestic partner or spouse that can hang dry wall.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 13:59 | 4632940 Ignorance is bliss
Ignorance is bliss's picture

Or better yet. That would be an excellent skill to learn.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 10:58 | 4632237 B2u
B2u's picture

Clearly this shows that the Democrats are deadbeats.  They cannot control spending in governement or in their own lives.  Time to vote them OUT.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 11:07 | 4632274 Toolshed
Toolshed's picture

The status quo absolutely loves clueless sheep like you B2u. Like there is a difference between the "parties"!! LOL!!!!!

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 11:24 | 4632367 B2u
B2u's picture

"The status quo absolutely loves clueless sheep like you B2u."

Too funny!!  You really need to study harder for you GED tests.

 

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 12:02 | 4632524 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

Well, there is a difference. A republican is simply a democrat from 20 years ago. A time-shifted democrat, if you will.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 11:11 | 4632293 ArkansasAngie
ArkansasAngie's picture

just so long as we vote the republiucans out, too.

Leave no incumbent standing

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 12:06 | 4632542 Blano
Blano's picture

Not to defend the Democraps, but the last time the RINO's actually reduced dollars spent was...when????

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 10:59 | 4632242 replaceme
replaceme's picture

I dont know what you're saying, but those charts make me want to buy a foreclosure and flip it.  Heard that idea at lunch, from a busboy, and that has to be lucky.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 11:04 | 4632252 nightshiftsucks
nightshiftsucks's picture

Reminds about a year ago they had an investment advisor come in and give a speech,he said that bubbles can't be predicted.I said BS and when you hear busboys buying 350k houses you know it's a bubble,that shut him up.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 11:04 | 4632260 Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

Sounds like the busboy has been talking to somebody that listens to a grocery clerk.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 11:23 | 4632358 replaceme
replaceme's picture

My grocery clerk is E(ddie) F(ranki) Hutton, and my grocery says.....  Fuhgettaboutit.

My real metric for bubbles is Fidelity - the more they try and get me into webinars about investing in the markt, the more I worry about getting out of funds...

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 11:01 | 4632245 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Moral:  Live in and buy in the GREEN areas.  Duh!

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 11:04 | 4632254 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Aren't that the rocky mountains?

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 11:38 | 4632419 atomp
atomp's picture

Nope. Looks more like Tornado Alley.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 16:24 | 4633392 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

All of the foreclosures reside in Oz, now. 

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 11:59 | 4632509 falconflight
falconflight's picture

Those green counties are the rural sparsely populated counties of the plains states and eastern counties of the mountain states.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 11:04 | 4632255 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

In the red areas I'm sure the politicians are thinking, well people aren't paying their mortgages so it is a great time to raise taxes.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 11:10 | 4632279 Yancey Ward
Yancey Ward's picture

Oh, give me a break.  This is nothing to be worried about- 2014 surprisingly had a Winter and this explains the problem.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 11:10 | 4632283 adr
adr's picture

I need to move to Massachusetts. The real estate market there is insane. Do you want to pay $250k for a dilapidated house in a once nice town and live with Mexicans taking over, or maybe figure out how to afford a $650k 800sq ft home built in 1855 in Concord?

Instead of living in Worchester it would be better just to put a shotgun in your mouth. The school systems outside a few select areas are some of the worst in the nation with test scores that match Detroit. Some towns are now 85% hispanic with less than 5% of students in third grade passing basic tests. In Ohio, Indiana, Kentucky the shit homes in Massachusetts priced at $200k wouldn't even be a bargain at $70k.

I've looked at abandoned homes that have been on the market for over three years, still priced above $350k. Some people have come to the realization that nobody is going to buy a home in a crappy suburb of Boston for $400k+. In the past month people have been dropping prices by $120k and still getting no bids. When 90% of the available jobs pay less than $35k, there aren't any buyers for artificially pumped up homes.

Outside the luxury market there is no action at all. I've actually only looked at one house that was still occupied. You want to talk shadow inventory, I think half the homes in Masachusettes are abandoned. If there is someone inside it is a mexican squatter.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 11:22 | 4632348 holmes
holmes's picture

Why would anyone want to live within 1,000 miles of the Kennedys, Barney Frank, Harvard Professors etc...?

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 12:04 | 4632529 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

NOBODY "needs" to move to Massachusetts. You need a checkup from the neck up, my friend.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 12:59 | 4632707 I Write Code
I Write Code's picture

My brother lived outside of Worcester back some years ago, and the region's cultural highlite was that the beavers were making a comeback, were of course protected by law, and were flooding several new housing developments.

Massachusetts could be a nice place to live, except for the Democrats.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 11:11 | 4632288 MarsInScorpio
MarsInScorpio's picture

Just sent this to my paper's biz editor:

Hope things are going well.

 

Could you consider writing something comparing our area to the article below? (Note: hyperlink to this article attached)

 

And in the article, you'll find a national, county-by-county map of how many days (years) the average loan in foreclosure is now past due. To blow up the map to make it easy to see our area, just click on it. It appears The Pensacola Bay market is well over the national average of 2.6 years (versus 0.7 years in 2008) - it appears we are around 3 years or slightly more.

 

I'd bet (hope!) our banks dumped them to the FED in their ongoing QE4EVA MBS buying program - but who knows? Regardless of who is stuck with the notes, that represents a lot of shadow inventory, meaning prices are only being held up because so much inventory is being held off the market. The price rise only works as long as the shadow inventory stays in the shadows.

 


Respectfully, a couple of blocks of renewal does not an economic recovery make for the vast majority of us. (referring to his latest rah-rah article saying that a few building renovations means downtown Pensacola is on the move . . .)

 -30-

 

 

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 11:11 | 4632290 corporatewhore
corporatewhore's picture

I know a natural gas trader who is flipping homes on the side. I know he's making money too 

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 14:07 | 4632965 813kml
813kml's picture

Nice to see Enron back in the game.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 11:16 | 4632311 Save_America1st
Save_America1st's picture

Isn't it kinda hard to have high mortgage applications counts when you have companies like Black Stone spending Billions in cash to buy up everything?  Doesn't that have to be taken into account?  Must be those "unintended consequences" that the Fed and Gubmint fraudsters don't take into account when they're behind the curtain pulling levers and flipping switches, etc.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 11:16 | 4632313 BudFox2012
BudFox2012's picture

I see some green still in the midwest on that map.  These must be these green shoots I keep hearing about...

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 11:36 | 4632349 The man with po...
The man with pointy horns's picture

Nah that's where the real patriots and all those who believe in traditional values live.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 11:20 | 4632332 adr
adr's picture

When I was driving around Massachusetts I was wondering how most of the people there were still living in their homes. Looking at the map I now see it is because none of them are paying.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 11:22 | 4632353 IronShield
IronShield's picture

Driving around MA?  You musta been really freakin bored...

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 11:20 | 4632338 Rising Sun
Rising Sun's picture

what a bloody fucking mess - fucking central banksters and all your underling banksters!!!!!!!!  ROT IN HELL!!!!!!!!!!!

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 11:33 | 4632415 novictim
novictim's picture

...,but y'all gotta catch'em first...sorta like Pokemon only with a nail gun.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 11:21 | 4632342 IronShield
IronShield's picture

Hey, wait a minute, my Realtor told me it's a great time to buy!

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 11:30 | 4632402 novictim
novictim's picture

I heard the same thing!  What a coincidence!

And she also said that home prices NEVER go down!  Isn't that great?!  Awesome!

 

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 13:06 | 4632746 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

Guys, have you checked Zillow lately?  House prices are back on the up!  Rope that comet!  Once in a lifetime!

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 15:56 | 4633309 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

"Hey, wait a minute, my Realtor told me it's a great time to buy!"

Well, apparently it is - and then not pay.......

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 11:32 | 4632361 olle
olle's picture

Differnce in EU is most countries don´t have your type of forclosure.... even if we have to sell at under water price we still have the dept peronally. More like your student loans.... you can´t get out of it....

A big difference for willingness to take on extended loans...

Your house is your collateral, yes, but the dept is your personal to the banks.

 

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 11:32 | 4632410 ddtrader
ddtrader's picture

Judicial foreclosure versus Power of Sale.....reddest are the former, I don't need to extrapolate

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 11:39 | 4632433 olle
olle's picture

This gives a view of a more stable housemarket in many areas of EU, "what ever happen always pay for your home". Credidcards, Car-lease, Power bills etc all this is secondary in many EU areas.... house is number one, cause the banks will track you down till you´re dead.....

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 11:41 | 4632438 olle
olle's picture

But "Power of sale" does not affect your dept to the bank..... :-(

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 19:18 | 4633964 Clycntct
Clycntct's picture

Comon olle dept is department.

DEBT.Not that you need it.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 11:49 | 4632442 ThroxxOfVron
ThroxxOfVron's picture

I live in New Jersey: smack in the middle of a sea of non-payers according to the data in this post.

My mortgage payment has the property taxes as a component of the mortgage payment.  I am compelled to pay the insurance on the home as a part of the mortgage agreement and do so.

It is my understanding that this is a general practice.

I will hazard a guess: those not paying their mortgages are not paying their property taxes -or the insurance on the homes- either; even though they are sending their children to public schools which are payed for with property tax revenues...

Exactly how the fuck are people who are paying their mortgages and property taxes and home insurance supposed to compete ecomonimically against People who are not paying their mortgages and property taxes and home insurance?

The ONLY reason why the Banks don't forclose on tens of millions of indigents living in homes for years without paying is that they will ALL be rendered insolvent.  In fact: most of the Banks ARE insolvent; the issue is being ignored by the Government because it will mean a full-blown mega-depression will be instantly realized as tens of millions will be thrown into banruptcy and the entire financial system will implode.

We who are dutifully paying our mortgages and taxes and insurance are also giving a free ride to tens of millions of deadbeats who can 'afford' to undercut our compensation demands in the work place or who can and will take lower paying jobs; -all the while demanding more and more money for schools and public services on OUR backs.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 16:56 | 4633504 venturen
venturen's picture

why are you paying....get a 100% mortgage and don't pay anything...they won't foreclose and you live rent free. My nieghbor is a mortgage broker....and that is what his brother is doing...as are a lot of people in NJ! It is a great deal!

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 18:19 | 4633782 Blood Spattered...
Blood Spattered Banner's picture

Dude, STFU.  You act like a paragon of virtue because you're willing to take it up the ass by getting fleeced by PMI, insurance and a house payment lasting decades.  Congrats, you're a sucker. Don't start calling people deadbeats who play the same game the banks do.

And this is coming from someone who just bought a house with a down payment.  Only difference is I know I'm getting fleeced, and could care less if others cheat the system.

You'd be best served redirecting your angst at the banks and government, not at the millions freeloading off of a corrupt system.  My $0.02. 

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 19:03 | 4633925 Meatier Shower
Meatier Shower's picture

Hey, this one is waking up Bob.

Give him another dose.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 11:45 | 4632454 IronShield
IronShield's picture

Hey, isn't the IMF having its Spring meeting in DC today?  Whew, nothing to worry about...  Now what tag am I missing?  Hmmm... 

Oh yes, found it... /sarc

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 11:56 | 4632498 olle
olle's picture

Wounder why Yellen and Lagarde has the same haircoulor....... are they the next predators... and Ben was almost the same... and Obama i soon the same.....only Kerry the wig has chosed another coulor.....

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 11:58 | 4632505 IronShield
IronShield's picture

Nah, they in the process of extincting themselves.  All we have to do is sit back and watch.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 11:52 | 4632481 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Unsustainable.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 11:54 | 4632491 Legolas
Legolas's picture

This is a really sucky map for color blind people !

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 11:57 | 4632504 justsayin2u
justsayin2u's picture

Until recently I had forgotten how worthless realtors and appraisors are.  I'm looking for a small farm for my wife and I to retire to.  Found one that looks good and checked comprable land and housing asking/sale values in the area and concluded a price about 15 to 25% less than asking would be reasonable.  Got a local realtor to look at it and an appraiser.  They both concluded that it "could be made to appraise for the asking price" and that it "was a bargain" after spending about 15 minutes each on it.

Worthless.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 12:54 | 4632693 bbaez
bbaez's picture

 

Appraisal Management Companies are chopping values to eliminate any risk should the market go south again

 

The appraisal independence act/HVCC have taken the ability to inquire if a transaction is viable away from consumers - you have to pay to find out

 

Lenders who own or run the AMC (appraisal mgmt company) can exclude comps or reject adjustments to bring the value down to the least riskiest number

 

Its puts the "bank" in charge of appraisals instead of the appraiser so it is not so independent for the borrowers who pad the $500 for the report

 

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 14:30 | 4633042 Poofter Priest
Poofter Priest's picture

 

Ya get what you pay for.

If the appraiser spent 15 minutes on it, he is risking license by making any statement. But if he only spent 15 minutes, then he must have been doing it for free. (Still risky of them though)

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 12:01 | 4632513 BiPolarFrenchman
BiPolarFrenchman's picture

The basis for the map is red = 1200 or more.  The green counties on the map are lower population densities, so in all likihood, the whole map could be red.  

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 12:01 | 4632514 IronShield
IronShield's picture

Hint:  Dark is bad, light is good.  HTH

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 12:54 | 4632692 Dre4dwolf
Dre4dwolf's picture

It's game over for the bankers, if they try and foreclose on that large a segment of the population, they will endup with their heads on spikes , Game of Throns Style.

Americans have fucking had it, everyone is on the verge of going ape-shit at any moment, let me break this down, if your house has been in foreclosure for 2.6 years, your not leaving that house, your going down with a fight, which means the bankers are lossing since its taking so long for them to scrounge together paper that doesn't look like complete fraud/bullshit.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 16:11 | 4633344 22winmag
22winmag's picture

Truer words were never spoken!

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 13:01 | 4632719 assistedliving
assistedliving's picture

what really bothers me is my gubbmint buying my bullets with my money to get me out of my (bankers) house.

it just aint right

 

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 14:34 | 4633048 mademesmile
mademesmile's picture

Don't buy a house if you have a renter mentality of planning on moving in less than 5 years to upgrade. Buy a house with land and a source of water at least an hour from the big city and develop it so you can live on less income. Then pay that sucker off as quick as you can so you really own it. Think legacy, not trendy.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 15:27 | 4633201 plane jain
plane jain's picture

Gotta stay withing commuting distance of a mid size city for my spouse's job, the rest is my plan exactly.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 15:52 | 4633295 syntaxterror
syntaxterror's picture

Enjoy the remaining few years of the Free Shit Era. Because if President Pillow Biter's hand-picked successor doesn't win in 2016, this game will be over.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 16:12 | 4633347 22winmag
22winmag's picture

This won't stop the pimps and whores at the National Association of Realtors from telling you the sky is blue.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 16:42 | 4633449 Rockfish
Rockfish's picture

really? You think the realtors were the source of FREE money. Fog a mirror et a loan. I

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