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This Time Better Be Different
Today's screengrab du jour comes by way of Bloomberg TV, reminding us that this time better be different, or else (even though as we pointed out the market's forward PE multiple is now identical to where it was at the last bubble peak). And keep in mind, this is after the not so great momo crash of 2014.
And now, cue the hypno-toad: "healthy correction... healthy correction... healthy correction"
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But first, let me take another selfie.
Fractionalized counterfeit value....Liquidity bitchezzz..
Buy Silver.
RIPS
Move along!!! Nothing to see here!!! These markets and valuations are perfectly reasonable!
Watch out below!!!!
Fuck that shit....weed just crashed 75%
Maybe for Mexico...
My puts are set. Let's rock bitchez!!!
How about Zillow and Trulia...with the housing market slowing down and the loan biz drying up it should have an impact on their revenues..and growth.
No way. There has NEVER, EVER been a better time to buy a house.
Dear Gentlemen,
LinkedIn: last quarter profit $3 million, research expenses $100 million on $400 million revenue.
If Zerohedge owners own LKND shares, manipulating the readers this way is an offense. And, since we're seeing a lot of commercials on this website, and some money flow must be happening, if I would be Zerohedge, I would be apprehensive.
Not sure what you are saying here. Are you saying that since LinkedIn $100M in expenses as "research expenses" that they could cut them out and still operate their current business, bring earning to $103M?
If so, then it should be pointed out that LinkedIn doesn't really do any "research". I'm pretty sure whatever expenses they are booking in that bucket are required for day to day operations. LinkedIn runs breakeven, and they've already had massive penetration in HR departments...
When the HR depts go tits up because the company went tits up, there won't be much need for Linkin now will there.
Come on! LinkedIn is doing some research, otherwise how would they be able to package up everyone's full profile for delivery to the NSA in a most efficient and searchable form.
Dear Sir,
Yes, we agree LinkedIn is not doing any real research. The income is strong, and any cut needed to keep company liquid is easily accomodated.
Pushing LNKD price down with an article like this is a doubtful business.
What's the real cost of day-to-day LinkedIn operations? Not even remotely close to $100M.
So when LKND goes to zero are you going to be like, "What the hell was I thinking?"
I greened you for bravery, or foolishness, or both. Good luck! I still walk with a limp after Jeff B. rammed it up hard back in 99. Think I lost 50k that year shorting AMZN in one form or another. I was right too. It was a $12 stock. To me.
BTFD!!!!!!
You are forgetting about the biotech valuations which are priced for perfection....these things dont even have revenue and wont be making money for at least another few years.
We haven't hit 1000x, so no need to panic yet. Keep "investing"........
/s
That song is hysterical!
ITEOTWAWKI was on the radio this morning as I was driving in to work. Fitting.
Do you feel fine?
As the Administration would say, let's pivot to "needed correction". Fucking wordsmiths. /sarc off
If Cramer uses this one tonight, i may go office space on my tv!
That's a Lot Of Lipstick...
...and surprisingly little pig.
Maybe the stocks are priced for the coming hyper-inflation
This assumes that their earnings are legitimate. There's no doubt with such slim margins at Amazon, with questionable "intangible assets" being recorded by Netflix, and with sustainable growth problems at LinkedIn, that via the simple magic wond and adjustment to an estimate by the accountants, earnings will turn into losses very quickly. Remember, real cash flow is king as the balance sheet and income statement can easily be manipulated to produced desired earnings results. Or in the words from Tony Montana played by Al Pacino in the movie Scarface, "I always tell the truth, even when I lie". Translation, the cash flow statement will always tell the truth even when the income statement and balance sheet are lying.
"Earnings" are probably based on how many people move their computer mouse over the wrong part of the screen and an ad pops up ... "they looked at our ad, that's as good as sold!" ...
What a shit show. Meanwhile that ad with Kate Upton makes me feel kind of funny inside.
Did you know it takes only 14 years to completely erase the memory of the average human ?
Adjusted for inflation that would be about 14 minutes -- just the amount of time between commercials.
So what is all that stuff that I remember from 15 years ago?
Or is it an exponential decay and 5 time constants = 14 years?
Do you forget 63% after 2.8 years?
Sounds about right to me. 63% forget everything after 3 years. Matches the markets perfectly.
"Gold has no earnings. It just sits there in a mindless pile. It does not grow or add value. You could own a pile of gold or Netflix 5 times over, with enough cash to plow into 7 Exxon Mobile's. Gold is the biggest bubble because it is essentially a bet against the Fed and the USA which always fails."-Warren Buffet
Whats the PE ratio of some silver in your hand? Whats the PE ratio of digital value uncollateralized? Please let me know when you can verify your ownership of said shares with the DTCC. Whats that note of exchange (currency) backed by again? Imagination?
Fuck Warrens insider gatekeepin ass.
Any more brain busters?
RIPS
EDIT: All good...sometimes in a fake world...assumptions are incorrect. Fuck Warren anyway!!
I guess I should have added a /sarc tag? Fuck Buffet! Long and strong physical metals, bitchez
People just need to read.
Fuck.
Retracted statement mis-aimed at you Larry... long too.
Warren makes me crazy...for most else i accept responsibility.
I hate that fuck.
I would give almost anything to debate warren firmly locked in the pillory in front the people that are about to get their savings "harvested".
RIPS
As much as I enjoy reading, I still prefer your second suggestion.
Thank you for recognizing my correctly constructed, one word imperative sentence.
.
Gold is a bet on the FED. They've done exactly the same thing for 100 years. $20/oz in 1913. Buffet wouldn't be as rich if the FED didn't know how to inflate. He's running scared by making that statement.
"it is essentially a bet against the Fed and the USA which always fails"
Tell that to the North Vietnamese.
Who gives a fuck about the PE's or the forward PE's ... Buy The Trend (BTT)
Where is the "price to clicks ratio"?
This is definately bullish.
Never fear Yellen's here!
Those multiples are insane! These markets need a massive dose of ' colon blow'...
Don't worry, it's a new paradigm where actual earnings and revenue aren't really that important. Increasing market share is all that matters with tech.
As well as a friendly benefactor connected to the free money flowing out of the CBs.
As soon as I find one of them, I'll start my own business. Ain't worth it before then becoz that's what you have to compete against.
Neither is volume. Look at volume levels now vs. 1999. Then subtract HFT. What's left?
holy fuck.
more important how are the bonuses going to be....and is Jon Corzine comfortable
Judging by this graphic NFLX is a huge bargain. Buy. Buy. Buy.
Still better than treasuries.
This time will be bad. In WWII before nukes were popular national leaders realized they had to stop world domination if they wanted to survive. The exact situation exists now except it is the NWO of banksters and the Western Military Industrial Complex.
At this time the citizens of the Globalist's occupied nations are against the Globalists as are the non-western nations. It is now or never for the financial war against the Globalists to take place.
The petro dollar is going to be attacked and the S is about THTF.
Its been 14 years since the .com blowoff and everyone from that time was also wiped out in 2007, or retired, or fired.
No one remembers.
QID is your friend for 401K and IRA. MZZ good too.
2014 will be a 'long' year for those faithful long.
Or died.
I remember discussing earnings with a rather straight headed individual. We discussed that earnings multiples are supposed to represent the time period it would take for an investment to repay your initial principal.
How anything outside 20 years is insane. I wonder if people were thinking about investing in LinkedIn during the plague? A $1000 investment then would start turning a profit now. Oh wait LinkedIn doesn't have a dividend or shares earnings with investors. So your investment will never turn positive unless you can find a greater fool to pay more for your shares than you did.
Finding fools seems to be the easy part. Finding fools with money seems a tad more difficult.
As for me, I'm seriously considering deleting my LinkedIn account: It hasn't helped me professionally, and anyone who needs to get a hold of me all ready has my contact information.
Deleted mine 5 months ago, no one made a peep about it so I know it was a good thing.
Got tired of seeing: "why haven't you followed [insert douche bag ceo of company X] on your feed?"
"Jill Emptyskull has liked your new skills update."
"Bob Fivedoorsdown has endorsed you for [skillset that isn't even in your industry]"
Never had, never will have Linkedin, Facebook, Twitter...........
At best a complete waste of time - At worst, a drunken post could end your career!
Not to mention NSA - oops I guess I did.
Let me guess: Jill Emptyskull works in HR.
I had one of those call me last year. 2:30 pm on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving. Really? *shakes head* Another company added to the block list...
Everyone's looking fo the greater fool it would seem.
Even the greatest fool, because he won't even realize he's it!
The Fed has been the greater fool, but maybe the Queen is no criminal. She is, so double down!
The FED is acting on behalf of the greatest fools of all, Dollar holders.
I see that both heroin and pot prices are coming down while consumption is going up. Those little news tidbits mean that there is still plenty of room for moar stock bullishness!
WTF, when did Linkedin sell a product?
It's nothing more than facebook for the employed.
They have a fee for premium services. Not sure if that generates enough revenue to keep the lights on. Linkedin is where you can be anybody you'd like and have any degree or job you can imagine. You will have lots of friends and "connections" of persons who are equally skilled embellishers.
since i got fired i had to register on linkedin. if i say i m looking for a job the answer is "do you have a linkedin account". sometimes i adapt to the society of consumption.
So in essence, folks are using LinkedIn as a resume substitute (lazy fscks!)
That's scary.
I once travelled 400 kms to deliver a resume ( err, that's not quite accurate. I was going that way anyway and thought it would be a good idea to drop it off on the way ). No, I wasn't allowed to speak to or even see a human being. "Go to our website", they said. And they wonder why they had a "skills shortage".
Some of those websites are impossible to navigate.
Oh, that's another story: Was unemployed for a little while, signed up with "Employment Centre". "You must visit our website at least once per week", they said. Shame it only displayed interstate jobs 5000 kms away. It hadn't yet been set up for local jobs.
Earnings are bullish!
Another 3 years of ZIRP will still double those stock PEs. Be very careful shorting this garbage.
For LinkedIn $3M earnings / 0% cost of capital = valuation to the moon!!!!
Amazon too "linked" to NSA for my taste.
Earnings? We don't need no stinkin' earnings.
Well, it's obvious looking at that graphic that NFLX is undervalued and has plenty of room to run.
Looks like its time to buy with both hands
I waiting for Linkedin to fall to 700x p/e and then I'll buy the fucking dip hard, really hard.
Earnings? Who needs earnings when you have other people's money to spend?
FED relaxing some Volker rules for two more years, who needs rules?
(Thus sayeth the Kleptoligarchy - get back to work Serfs)
I think the Zimbabwe market is still beating our or is Venezuela?
Great Graphic and title. Impossible to improve on. Yeah, it sure as hell better be different this time; but I don't think so.
It is different this time.... Everyone knew it was not real, waiting for first Wall Street Banker to say nobody could have seen it coming.
buy the fucking dip you idiot. just buy the fucking dip.
I read somewhere's that Bernanke's thesis in school was on the '29 crash and its outcome.
The German hyper-inflation experience is IMHO more instructive for current events.
The old Mark was cancelled,with a new RentenMark issued (a reset of sorts).
Things were kind of stabilizing until a Rothschilds bank in Austria (KreditAnstalt) failed which affected everyones' currencies.
The result was a new round of inflation,and then Hitler was "elected" to power.The Germans place a high cultural value on social order and they were tired of everyday battles in the streets.
Sadly there was a time when we could have had a reset in America if the politicians had any courage at all.Jefferson is spinning in his grave.....
Words like "evolving" are used to describe Amazon's business model, a better word might be undefined. Regardless Amazon rolls on. Pointing towards gaining synergy as they continue to buy companies, some unproven. The revenues from these companies add to their growth but still no profits exist. Does this growth mask a weakness at their core?
If they are indeed a distribution company their stock should be trading at around 18 times earnings. When you look for a P/E ratio on Amazon you find NA because the company makes no money. Another key weakness is that new competition can now cheaply and easily replicate the most profitable parts of Amazon and cherry pick much of their future potential. More on this subject in the article below.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/10/amazon-not-answer.html
The true top of the Dot Com 2.0 bubble has to be the HBO show 'Silicon Valley' which premiered last night.
For all you wheelchair bound quaterbacks, why not hit the short button on your trading screens instead of sucking air, buying shiny rocks & otherwise wasting away your pitiful lives?
I bought Puts on Facebook right after the Whatafuckingstupidapp deal and am minting a fortune on them.
Because we remember the last 5 years...
You can't even jump on the put options on those pigs the premiums are so high
you could write the option, in this call write the call - collect fat premium
may be a bit late to do this - ideally would have better intraday Friday
Yes, there is that. There are also some spread strategies that could be employed. I usually stay away when the premiums are so juicy. They are being set that way for a purpose and the people setting them are going to put a lot of money into defending them.
I learned that lesson with google :)
Salesforce.com doesn't have earnings and a 13b valuation spent billions on old 80's progress software and unworkable ruby on rails... Cloud and social advertising with FB users falling off cliff....
PE infinity.. OH AND HOW ABOUT GAAP - 80% (PERHAPS MORE) NON-GAP -35% (PERHAPS MORE)
I just threw up in my mouth.
Have a greenie anyway.
Ah, say, it's a buy, alpha baby, up and die!
Expect Yellen and Warren Buffet on the Financial channels to parade in front of the cameras soon to reassure the markets.
Yellen the Sheepdog will definitely be herding the flock back into stocks
Makes me proud to be a Merkin.
hMMMMM - Merkin - not many people know the definition of that word , British slang if I recall correctly and don't wig out over it's definition.
Bush's fault.
with these pe's, how is the index still at15.2 x pe
Wasn't Cramer pushing Yelp on Sqwack Box this morning?