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This Time Better Be Different

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Today's screengrab du jour comes by way of Bloomberg TV, reminding us that this time better be different, or else (even though as we pointed out the market's forward PE multiple is now identical to where it was at the last bubble peak). And keep in mind, this is after the not so great momo crash of 2014.

And now, cue the hypno-toad: "healthy correction... healthy correction... healthy correction"

 

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Mon, 04/07/2014 - 16:33 | 4633421 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

But first, let me take another selfie.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 16:35 | 4633426 Deathrips
Deathrips's picture

Fractionalized counterfeit value....Liquidity bitchezzz..

 

Buy Silver.

 

RIPS

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 16:36 | 4633430 The Phu
The Phu's picture

Move along!!!  Nothing to see here!!!  These markets and valuations are perfectly reasonable!

 

Watch out below!!!!

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 16:47 | 4633473 max2205
max2205's picture

Fuck that shit....weed just crashed 75%

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 16:52 | 4633490 Sabibaby
Sabibaby's picture

Maybe for Mexico...

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 17:13 | 4633554 Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

My puts are set. Let's rock bitchez!!!

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 17:35 | 4633621 eatthebanksters
eatthebanksters's picture

How about Zillow and Trulia...with the housing market slowing down and the loan biz drying up it should have an impact on their revenues..and growth.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 17:43 | 4633646 Osmium
Osmium's picture

No way.  There has NEVER, EVER been a better time to buy a house.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 17:58 | 4633694 kreso
kreso's picture

Dear Gentlemen,

LinkedIn: last quarter profit $3 million, research expenses $100 million on $400 million revenue.

If Zerohedge owners own LKND shares, manipulating the readers this way is an offense. And, since we're seeing a lot of commercials on this website, and some money flow must be happening, if I would be Zerohedge, I would be apprehensive.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 18:08 | 4633731 zaphod
zaphod's picture

Not sure what you are saying here. Are you saying that since LinkedIn $100M in expenses as "research expenses" that they could cut them out and still operate their current business, bring earning to $103M? 

If so, then it should be pointed out that LinkedIn doesn't really do any "research". I'm pretty sure whatever expenses they are booking in that bucket are required for day to day operations. LinkedIn runs breakeven, and they've already had massive penetration in HR departments...

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 18:39 | 4633851 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

When the HR depts go tits up because the company went tits up, there won't be much need for Linkin now will there.

Tue, 04/08/2014 - 01:51 | 4634831 wintermute
wintermute's picture

Come on! LinkedIn is doing some research, otherwise how would they be able to package up everyone's full profile for delivery to the NSA in a most efficient and searchable form.

 

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 18:42 | 4633861 kreso
kreso's picture

Dear Sir,

Yes, we agree LinkedIn is not doing any real research. The income is strong, and any cut needed to keep company liquid is easily accomodated.

Pushing LNKD price down with an article like this is a doubtful business.

What's the real cost of day-to-day LinkedIn operations? Not even remotely close to $100M.

Tue, 04/08/2014 - 09:09 | 4635242 Agstacker
Agstacker's picture

So when LKND goes to zero are you going to be like, "What the hell was I thinking?"

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 17:54 | 4633678 King_Julian
King_Julian's picture

I greened you for bravery, or foolishness, or both. Good luck! I still walk with a limp after Jeff B. rammed it up hard back in 99. Think I lost 50k that year shorting AMZN in one form or another. I was right too. It was a $12 stock. To me.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 16:56 | 4633506 logicalman
logicalman's picture

BTFD!!!!!!

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 16:48 | 4633477 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

You are forgetting about the biotech valuations which are priced for perfection....these things dont even have revenue and wont be making money for at least another few years.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 16:35 | 4633429 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

We haven't hit 1000x, so no need to panic yet.  Keep "investing"........

/s

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 16:43 | 4633461 Toolshed
Toolshed's picture

That song is hysterical!

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 17:04 | 4633528 Postal
Postal's picture

ITEOTWAWKI was on the radio this morning as I was driving in to work. Fitting.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 17:50 | 4633663 King_Julian
King_Julian's picture

Do you feel fine?

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 16:58 | 4633505 goBackToSleep
goBackToSleep's picture

As the Administration would say, let's pivot to "needed correction". Fucking wordsmiths. /sarc off

If Cramer uses this one tonight, i may go office space on my tv!

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 16:35 | 4633428 The Wisp
The Wisp's picture

That's a Lot Of Lipstick...

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 16:56 | 4633502 seek
seek's picture

...and surprisingly little pig.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 16:36 | 4633431 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

Maybe the stocks are priced for the coming hyper-inflation

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 16:37 | 4633440 delivered
delivered's picture

This assumes that their earnings are legitimate. There's no doubt with such slim margins at Amazon, with questionable "intangible assets" being recorded by Netflix, and with sustainable growth problems at LinkedIn, that via the simple magic wond and adjustment to an estimate by the accountants, earnings will turn into losses very quickly. Remember, real cash flow is king as the balance sheet and income statement can easily be manipulated to produced desired earnings results. Or in the words from Tony Montana played by Al Pacino in the movie Scarface, "I always tell the truth, even when I lie". Translation, the cash flow statement will always tell the truth even when the income statement and balance sheet are lying.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 17:37 | 4633623 PT
PT's picture

"Earnings" are probably based on how many people move their computer mouse over the wrong part of the screen and an ad pops up ... "they looked at our ad, that's as good as sold!" ...

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 16:37 | 4633441 Seize Mars
Seize Mars's picture

What a shit show. Meanwhile that ad with Kate Upton makes me feel kind of funny inside.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 16:37 | 4633442 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Did you know it takes only 14 years to completely erase the memory of the average human ?

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 16:52 | 4633492 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Adjusted for inflation that would be about 14 minutes -- just the amount of time between commercials.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 17:38 | 4633628 PT
PT's picture

So what is all that stuff that I remember from 15 years ago?

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 17:41 | 4633640 PT
PT's picture

Or is it an exponential decay and 5 time constants = 14 years?
Do you forget 63% after 2.8 years?

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 18:13 | 4633751 css1971
css1971's picture

Sounds about right to me. 63% forget everything after 3 years. Matches the markets perfectly.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 16:38 | 4633443 larry david
larry david's picture

"Gold has no earnings. It just sits there in a mindless pile. It does not grow or add value. You could own a pile of gold or Netflix 5 times over, with enough cash to plow into 7 Exxon Mobile's. Gold is the biggest bubble because it is essentially a bet against the Fed and the USA which always fails."-Warren Buffet

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 16:51 | 4633467 Deathrips
Deathrips's picture

Whats the PE ratio of some silver in your hand? Whats the PE ratio of digital value uncollateralized? Please let me know when you can verify your ownership of said shares with the DTCC. Whats that note of exchange (currency) backed by again? Imagination?

 

Fuck Warrens insider gatekeepin ass.

 

Any more brain busters?

 

RIPS

 

EDIT: All good...sometimes in a fake world...assumptions are incorrect. Fuck Warren anyway!!

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 16:50 | 4633484 larry david
larry david's picture

I guess I should have added a /sarc tag? Fuck Buffet! Long and strong physical metals, bitchez

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 16:59 | 4633510 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

People just need to read.

Fuck.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 17:10 | 4633524 Deathrips
Deathrips's picture

Retracted statement mis-aimed at you Larry... long too.

 

Warren makes me crazy...for most else i accept responsibility.

 

I hate that fuck.

 

I would give almost anything to debate warren firmly locked in the pillory in front the people that are about to get their savings "harvested".

 

RIPS

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 17:06 | 4633535 Agent P
Agent P's picture

As much as I enjoy reading, I still prefer your second suggestion. 

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 17:19 | 4633570 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Thank you for recognizing my correctly constructed, one word imperative sentence.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 16:51 | 4633487 larry david
larry david's picture

.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 19:23 | 4633987 daveO
daveO's picture

Gold is a bet on the FED. They've done exactly the same thing for 100 years. $20/oz in 1913. Buffet wouldn't be as rich if the FED didn't know how to inflate. He's running scared by making that statement.  

Tue, 04/08/2014 - 09:12 | 4635253 Agstacker
Agstacker's picture

"it is essentially a bet against the Fed and the USA which always fails"

 

Tell that to the North Vietnamese.

 


Mon, 04/07/2014 - 16:39 | 4633445 resurger
resurger's picture

Who gives a fuck about the PE's or the forward PE's ... Buy The Trend (BTT)

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 16:40 | 4633451 dcj98gst
dcj98gst's picture

Where is the "price to clicks ratio"?  

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 16:41 | 4633454 naughtius maximus
naughtius maximus's picture

This is definately bullish.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 16:42 | 4633457 RabbitOne
RabbitOne's picture

Never fear Yellen's here!

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 16:42 | 4633458 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

     Those multiples are insane! These markets need a massive dose of ' colon blow'...

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 16:45 | 4633465 Caracalla
Caracalla's picture

Don't worry, it's a new paradigm where actual earnings and revenue aren't really that important.  Increasing market share is all that matters with tech.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 16:49 | 4633480 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

As well as a friendly benefactor connected to the free money flowing out of the CBs.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 17:45 | 4633654 PT
PT's picture

As soon as I find one of them, I'll start my own business.  Ain't worth it before then becoz that's what you have to compete against.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 19:25 | 4633995 daveO
daveO's picture

Neither is volume. Look at volume levels now vs. 1999. Then subtract HFT. What's left?

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 16:43 | 4633460 ronron
ronron's picture

holy fuck.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 16:45 | 4633466 venturen
venturen's picture

more important how are the bonuses going to be....and is Jon Corzine comfortable

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 16:46 | 4633468 CynicalBastard
CynicalBastard's picture

Judging by this graphic NFLX is a huge bargain. Buy. Buy. Buy.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 16:47 | 4633471 urbanelf
urbanelf's picture

Still better than treasuries.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 16:49 | 4633482 q99x2
q99x2's picture

This time will be bad. In WWII before nukes were popular national leaders realized they had to stop world domination if they wanted to survive. The exact situation exists now except it is the NWO of banksters and the Western Military Industrial Complex.

At this time the citizens of the Globalist's occupied nations are against the Globalists as are the non-western nations. It is now or never for the financial war against the Globalists to take place.

The petro dollar is going to be attacked and the S is about THTF.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 16:52 | 4633483 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

Its been 14 years since the .com blowoff and everyone from that time was also wiped out in 2007, or retired, or fired.

No one remembers.

QID is your friend for 401K and IRA.   MZZ good too.

2014 will be a 'long' year for those faithful long.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 16:55 | 4633499 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

Or died. 

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 16:54 | 4633498 adr
adr's picture

I remember discussing earnings with a rather straight headed individual. We discussed that earnings multiples are supposed to represent the time period it would take for an investment to repay your initial principal.

How anything outside 20 years is insane. I wonder if people were thinking about investing in LinkedIn during the plague? A $1000 investment then would start turning a profit now. Oh wait LinkedIn doesn't have a dividend or shares earnings with investors. So your investment will never turn positive unless you can find a greater fool to pay more for your shares than you did.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 17:00 | 4633513 Postal
Postal's picture

Finding fools seems to be the easy part. Finding fools with money seems a tad more difficult.

As for me, I'm seriously considering deleting my LinkedIn account: It hasn't helped me professionally, and anyone who needs to get a hold of me all ready has my contact information.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 17:04 | 4633531 Billy Sol Estes
Billy Sol Estes's picture

Deleted mine 5 months ago, no one made a peep about it so I know it was a good thing.

Got tired of seeing: "why haven't you followed [insert douche bag ceo of company X] on your feed?"

"Jill Emptyskull has liked your new skills update."

"Bob Fivedoorsdown has endorsed you for [skillset that isn't even in your industry]"

 

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 17:07 | 4633540 logicalman
logicalman's picture

Never had, never will have Linkedin, Facebook, Twitter...........

At best a complete waste of time - At worst, a drunken post could end your career!

Not to mention NSA - oops I guess I did.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 17:17 | 4633559 Postal
Postal's picture

Let me guess: Jill Emptyskull works in HR.

I had one of those call me last year. 2:30 pm on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving. Really? *shakes head* Another company added to the block list...

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 17:04 | 4633525 logicalman
logicalman's picture

Everyone's looking fo the greater fool it would seem.

Even the greatest fool, because he won't even realize he's it!

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 17:10 | 4633546 TrustWho
TrustWho's picture

The Fed has been the greater fool, but maybe the Queen is no criminal. She is, so double down!

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 19:28 | 4634009 daveO
daveO's picture

The FED is acting on behalf of the greatest fools of all, Dollar holders.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 16:57 | 4633507 shermacman
shermacman's picture

I see that both heroin and pot prices are coming down while consumption is going up. Those little news tidbits mean that there is still plenty of room for moar stock bullishness!

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 17:00 | 4633514 Billy Sol Estes
Billy Sol Estes's picture

WTF, when did Linkedin sell a product?

It's nothing more than facebook for the employed.

 

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 17:22 | 4633579 walküre
walküre's picture

They have a fee for premium services. Not sure if that generates enough revenue to keep the lights on. Linkedin is where you can be anybody you'd like and have any degree or job you can imagine. You will have lots of friends and "connections" of persons who are equally skilled embellishers.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 17:22 | 4633580 Bankstein Swiss...
Bankstein Swissgoldberg's picture

since i got fired i had to register on linkedin. if i say i m looking for a job the answer is "do you have a linkedin account". sometimes i adapt to the society of consumption.

Tue, 04/08/2014 - 01:22 | 4634810 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

So in essence, folks are using LinkedIn as a resume substitute (lazy fscks!)

Tue, 04/08/2014 - 06:32 | 4634982 PT
PT's picture

That's scary.

I once travelled 400 kms to deliver a resume ( err, that's not quite accurate.  I was going that way anyway and thought it would be a good idea to drop it off on the way ).  No, I wasn't allowed to speak to or even see a human being.  "Go to our website", they said.  And they wonder why they had a "skills shortage".

Some of those websites are impossible to navigate.

 

Oh, that's another story:  Was unemployed for a little while, signed up with "Employment Centre".  "You must visit our website at least once per week", they said.  Shame it only displayed interstate jobs 5000 kms away.  It hadn't yet been set up for local jobs. 

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 17:01 | 4633515 WageSlave
WageSlave's picture

Earnings are bullish!

 

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 17:02 | 4633518 syntaxterror
syntaxterror's picture

Another 3 years of ZIRP will still double those stock PEs. Be very careful shorting this garbage.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 19:01 | 4633919 zaphod
zaphod's picture

For LinkedIn $3M earnings / 0% cost of capital = valuation to the moon!!!!

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 17:02 | 4633519 NaiLib
NaiLib's picture

Amazon too "linked" to NSA for my taste.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 17:02 | 4633521 ThisIsBob
ThisIsBob's picture

Earnings?  We don't need no stinkin' earnings.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 17:03 | 4633523 Agent P
Agent P's picture

Well, it's obvious looking at that graphic that NFLX is undervalued and has plenty of room to run.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 17:04 | 4633527 Matt_Master
Matt_Master's picture

Looks like its time to buy with both hands

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 17:05 | 4633532 Stinko da Munk
Stinko da Munk's picture

I waiting for Linkedin to fall to 700x p/e and then I'll buy the fucking dip hard, really hard.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 17:07 | 4633538 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Earnings?  Who needs earnings when you have other people's money to spend?

FED relaxing some Volker rules for two more years, who needs rules?

(Thus sayeth the Kleptoligarchy - get back to work Serfs)

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 17:17 | 4633560 venturen
venturen's picture

I think the Zimbabwe market is still beating our or is Venezuela? 

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 17:22 | 4633583 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Great Graphic and title. Impossible to improve on. Yeah, it sure as hell better be different this time; but I don't think so.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 17:27 | 4633591 El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

It is different this time.... Everyone knew it was not real, waiting for first Wall Street Banker to say nobody could have seen it coming.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 17:24 | 4633587 ronron
ronron's picture

buy the fucking dip you idiot. just buy the fucking dip.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 17:42 | 4633642 Paracelsus
Paracelsus's picture

I read somewhere's that Bernanke's thesis in school was on the '29 crash and its outcome.

The German hyper-inflation experience is IMHO more instructive for current events.

The old Mark was cancelled,with a new RentenMark issued (a reset of sorts).

Things were kind of stabilizing until a Rothschilds bank in Austria (KreditAnstalt) failed which affected everyones' currencies.

The result was a new round of inflation,and then Hitler was "elected" to power.The Germans place a high cultural value on social order and they were tired of everyday battles in the streets.

Sadly there was a time when we could have had a reset in America if the politicians had any courage at all.Jefferson is spinning in his grave.....

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 17:44 | 4633643 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

Words like "evolving" are used to describe Amazon's business model, a better word might be undefined. Regardless Amazon rolls on. Pointing towards gaining synergy as they continue to buy companies, some unproven. The revenues from these companies add to their growth but still no profits exist. Does this growth mask a weakness at their core?

If they are indeed a distribution company their stock should be trading at around 18 times earnings. When you look for a P/E ratio on Amazon you find NA because the company makes no money. Another key weakness is that new competition can now cheaply and easily replicate the most profitable parts of Amazon and cherry pick much of their future potential. More on this subject in the article below.

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/10/amazon-not-answer.html

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 17:45 | 4633649 thorgodofthunder
thorgodofthunder's picture

The true top of the Dot Com 2.0 bubble has to be the HBO show 'Silicon Valley' which premiered last night.

For all you wheelchair bound quaterbacks, why not hit the short button on your trading screens instead of sucking air, buying shiny rocks & otherwise wasting away your pitiful lives?

I bought Puts on Facebook right after the Whatafuckingstupidapp deal and am minting a fortune on them.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 18:05 | 4633719 css1971
css1971's picture

Because we remember the last 5 years...

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 17:46 | 4633655 U4 eee aaa
U4 eee aaa's picture

You can't even jump on the put options on those pigs the premiums are so high

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 18:01 | 4633704 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

you could write the option, in this call write the call - collect fat premium

 

may be a bit late to do this - ideally would have better intraday Friday

Tue, 04/08/2014 - 01:09 | 4634795 U4 eee aaa
U4 eee aaa's picture

Yes, there is that. There are also some spread strategies that could be employed. I usually stay away when the premiums are so juicy. They are being set that way for a purpose and the people setting them are going to put a lot of money into defending them.

I learned that lesson with google :)

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 18:02 | 4633710 highwaytoserfdom
highwaytoserfdom's picture

Salesforce.com  doesn't have earnings and a 13b valuation spent billions on old 80's progress software and  unworkable ruby on rails...  Cloud and social advertising with FB  users falling off cliff....     

PE     infinity..   OH AND HOW ABOUT  GAAP  - 80% (PERHAPS MORE)   NON-GAP  -35% (PERHAPS MORE)  

  • Employees receive stock options INSTEAD OF cash compensation for various raises, bonuses, etc.
  • Salesforce.com takes the DIFFERENCE in stock value that they gave to their employees (an expense under GAAP and IFRS) verses what it WOULD HAVE COST in cash and books THAT DEFERRED COST as actual cash flow.  Viola! Magical cash flow appears!
  • THEN they add the “saved cash flow” (deferred cost, i.e. Expense) to non-GAAP earnings as “profit” thereby doing a complete Enron to convert an expense into profit.
Mon, 04/07/2014 - 18:21 | 4633787 Animal Cracker
Animal Cracker's picture

I just threw up in my mouth.

Have a greenie anyway.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 18:11 | 4633745 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Ah, say, it's a buy, alpha baby, up and die!

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 18:31 | 4633823 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Expect Yellen and Warren Buffet on the Financial channels to parade in front of the cameras soon to reassure the markets.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 20:43 | 4634229 syntaxterror
syntaxterror's picture

Yellen the Sheepdog will definitely be herding the flock back into stocks

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 20:07 | 4634129 I Write Code
I Write Code's picture

Makes me proud to be a Merkin.

Tue, 04/08/2014 - 05:41 | 4634947 pndr4495
pndr4495's picture

hMMMMM - Merkin -  not many people know the definition of that word , British slang if I recall correctly and don't wig out over it's definition.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 21:43 | 4634393 NIETSNEREM
NIETSNEREM's picture

Bush's fault.

Mon, 04/07/2014 - 23:36 | 4634660 I_Am_
I_Am_'s picture

with these pe's, how is the index still at15.2 x pe 

Tue, 04/08/2014 - 00:25 | 4634733 idontcare
idontcare's picture

Wasn't Cramer pushing Yelp on Sqwack Box this morning?

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