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Comedy Of Forecast Errors: Here Are The IMF's Latest Projections Of Economic Growth
Another quarter, and another attempt at predicting the future by the people whose predictions have become the biggest butt of all economics jokes, even more so than Paul Krugman columns.
We are talking, of course, about the IMF's World Economic Outlook update.
It is here we learn that, at the same time as IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard was saying that the global economy is stronger and broader, the IMF... cut its 2014 global GDP outlook from 3.7% to 3.6%. Perfectly sensible of course, because it is the same mostly US-funded policy perpetuating economists that added that "sooner is better than later on ECB moves" - moves which naturally entail moar QE, the same QE which IMF staffers last night said has "costs that now otherwise its benefits." One can't even keep the lies straight any more, let along the truth.
In any case, aside from cut to global GDP, the IMF kept the and China US unchanged, boosted the Eurozone (we wonder how many more changes to the definition of what makes up European GDP will be required for that prediction to come true), and finally slashed Japan by 0.3% to just 1.4% in 2014 and 1.0% in 2015. Hardly the glowing testament that is the gift to people everywhere which is Abenomics, that Abe would like to hear.
Here are the charts showing not only the most recent forecast but the history of revisions in the past two years:
Global:
US:
Eurozone:
China:
But the best chart, and the one that actually does matter, if not for the absolute level, but for the trendline, is that of world trade. Because while QE may manipulate relative asset prices and "wealth effects", in the absence of growth to global trade, and certainly contraction, there is only one possible outcome: global economic deterioration. Sadly, the trendline in historic and future global trade is very clear.
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Fairy Tales are nice to lull small children to sleep. Not so much with the educated investor.
Looks like the IMF just spend all day playing pin the tail on the donkey !
Poop flinging monkeys.
pods
So all these charts are saying...buy STAWKS? Right?
OT: Lies, lies, and more damn lies.
An AP article about the Russia/Iran barter(read gold and military surplus)for oil deal, and how it will provide Iran with billions of DOLLARS!!! There isn't a fucking dollar within a pirogi's throw of this deal.
...The Russian-Iranian oil deal could provide Tehran with billions of dollars, according to experts, softening the blow of years of U.S. and international sanctions that have crippled Iran's economy and helped end more than a decade of deadlock in nuclear negotiations. Iran insists its program is solely for peaceful power production.MSM keeping the wool over your eyes as usual. Fuck these sophists. Actors one and all. I may extend my 90% silver bounty to these cocksuckers when I become a warlord after the reset.
Alternating piked heads of banksters and MSM mouthpieces will be all the rage in the Winter '14 issue of Better Fortresses and Citadels.
~"OT: Lies, lies, and more damn lies."~
It's not lies, but I definitely want some of what Lagarde is smoking! You know, it's like her perception, man...
"We will all be seeing growth in jut a few short months"........
Repeat each month ad infinitum and you too can work for the IMF for millins each year. Nice gig if you can get it.
Shouldn't those be negative numbers?
damn...those charts look like Al Gore's famous Hockey stick chart of how we all are going to die of carbon dioxide poisoning!
shouldn't these be negative numbers, ha, if you take away the printed fiat suporting the mess, my guess is flat at best...grow this bitch a new tit!
Yeah thats one hell of a dead cat bounce
I used to work for a manager that on alternating days would tell me to be either "aggressively conservative" and "conservatively aggressive."
3.7% to 3.6%.... ridiculous. It's good to know that they can be so precise. The world will be lucky to break 1% in this environment, and that will be all due to inflation, not growth.
Precision vs. accuracy. They can shoot some pretty tight groupings. Too bad they're all 10 feet to the left and low of the target.
Idiot Maggot Fools
Idle Mo Fos ?
Invertebrate Mammonic Fascists
Who cares?
So that's what Unicorn droppings look like.
Oh, this is economics stuff. I'm glad none of this can affect the price of my stawks. I was a little worried there for a minute.
GDP can be whatever they want it to be. As long as you undershoot money printing GDP looks better.
pods
Crap like the above only makes the really sucessful predictions of the past that more impressive:
"The 1970 Club of Rome sponsered Limits to Growth study that predicted an end to economic growth by 2020..."
that was a bit optimistic. only off by 20 years.
See, for example
http://peakoil.com/geology/ugo-bardi-mineral-resources-and-the-limits-to...
http://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/2011/08/cassandras.html
http://www.countercurrents.org/mackenzie100112.htm
The LtG study wasn't perfect, but compared the drivel that economists and paid shills produced it was remarkably prescient...
Edit: here is an excellent overview of the model...
http://www.americanscientist.org/libraries/documents/2012491358139046-20...
Were they predictions, or just previews of the game plan?
Familiar with the Georgia Guidestones?
LtG was not sold at the time as a prediction per se....
The other 2 were....
In fact if the growth rate of oil use Hubbert observed in the '60s had not been modified by the first oil shock of 1973, Hubbert would have been bang on for the global peak...
Math works, bitchez....
Point 2 hasn't happened yet but I could definitely see that in the cards...
The hockeystick charts make me think of Buzz Lightyear. "To infinity and beyond!"
There are enough hockey sticks now that iceing a new NHL team is not out of the question....
I thought Sears has a copyright on Wish Books?
Please proof read your stuff a little more Tyler. This was barely readable.
Clueless Dolts
Who are those people shifting that "V" shaped chart thingy quarter after quarter.
Do i know them ? should i know them ? do i want to know them, should i pay any attention to them ?
Questions....
Don't know about paying any attention to them -- but you are paying them.
If this lot were employed by ANY respectable private business they wouldn't last 5 minutes.
Dreamers, one and all, with vivid imaginations.
It's been serious for a long time now. It's all lies, pure and simple. If they actually forecast the truth, the world would realize we're in a global depression. Only thing that's kept us out of it "by appearance", is Central bank money printing.
@ Colonel Klink
How can they forecast the truth when all their models are built on lies and false assumptions.
They wouldn't recognise the truth if it was served up on a dinner plate.
We all know it's done so on purpose.
Row faster serfs!
Create the problem.
Present the already prepared and the (only) solution.
Take over.
I can't find Nigerias indicator?
@ starman,
Look in the same place where you find the IMF's indicator, it's headed BULLSHIT.
Wow! This IMF forcast makes Mylie Cyrus twerking look modest!