Comedy Of Forecast Errors: Here Are The IMF's Latest Projections Of Economic Growth

Tyler Durden's picture


Another quarter, and another attempt at predicting the future by the people whose predictions have become the biggest butt of all economics jokes, even more so than Paul Krugman columns.

We are talking, of course, about the IMF's World Economic Outlook update.

It is here we learn that, at the same time as IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard was saying that the global economy is stronger and broader, the IMF... cut its 2014 global GDP outlook from 3.7% to 3.6%. Perfectly sensible of course, because it is the same mostly US-funded policy perpetuating economists that added that "sooner is better than later on ECB moves" - moves which naturally entail moar QE, the same QE which IMF staffers last night said has "costs that now otherwise its benefits." One can't even keep the lies straight any more, let along the truth.

In any case, aside from cut to global GDP, the IMF kept the and China US unchanged, boosted the Eurozone (we wonder how many more changes to the definition of what makes up European GDP will be required for that prediction to come true), and finally slashed Japan by 0.3% to just 1.4% in 2014 and 1.0% in 2015. Hardly the glowing testament that is the gift to people everywhere which is Abenomics, that Abe would like to hear.

Here are the charts showing not only the most recent forecast but the history of revisions in the past two years:









But the best chart, and the one that actually does matter, if not for the absolute level, but for the trendline, is that of world trade. Because while QE may manipulate relative asset prices and "wealth effects", in the absence of growth to global trade, and certainly contraction, there is only one possible outcome: global economic deterioration. Sadly, the trendline in historic and future global trade is very clear.

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Tue, 04/08/2014 - 10:06 | 4635420 Keyser
Keyser's picture

Fairy Tales are nice to lull small children to sleep. Not so much with the educated investor. 

Tue, 04/08/2014 - 10:10 | 4635437 inky
inky's picture

Looks like the IMF just spend all day playing pin the tail on the donkey !

Tue, 04/08/2014 - 10:12 | 4635444 pods
pods's picture

Poop flinging monkeys.


Tue, 04/08/2014 - 10:16 | 4635461 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

So all these charts are STAWKS? Right?

Tue, 04/08/2014 - 10:37 | 4635495 Two-bits
Two-bits's picture

OT:  Lies, lies, and more damn lies.


An AP article about the Russia/Iran barter(read gold and military surplus)for oil deal, and how it will provide Iran with billions of DOLLARS!!! There isn't a fucking dollar within a pirogi's throw of this deal. 

...The Russian-Iranian oil deal could provide Tehran with billions of dollars, according to experts, softening the blow of years of U.S. and international sanctions that have crippled Iran's economy and helped end more than a decade of deadlock in nuclear negotiations. Iran insists its program is solely for peaceful power production.


MSM keeping the wool over your eyes as usual. Fuck these sophists.  Actors one and all.  I may extend my 90% silver bounty to these cocksuckers when I become a warlord after the reset. 


Alternating piked heads of banksters and MSM mouthpieces will be all the rage in the Winter '14 issue of Better Fortresses and Citadels.

Tue, 04/08/2014 - 14:15 | 4636403 Theosebes Goodfellow
Theosebes Goodfellow's picture

~"OT:  Lies, lies, and more damn lies."~

It's not lies, but I definitely want some of what Lagarde is smoking! You know, it's like her perception, man...

Tue, 04/08/2014 - 15:40 | 4636680 ATM
ATM's picture

"We will all be seeing growth in jut a few short months"........


Repeat each month ad infinitum and you too can work for the IMF for millins each year. Nice gig if you can get it.

Tue, 04/08/2014 - 10:17 | 4635467 mickeyman
mickeyman's picture

Shouldn't those be negative numbers?

Tue, 04/08/2014 - 10:20 | 4635472 davinci7_gis
davinci7_gis's picture

damn...those charts look like Al Gore's famous Hockey stick chart of how we all are going to die of carbon dioxide poisoning!

Tue, 04/08/2014 - 10:30 | 4635483 new game
new game's picture

shouldn't these be negative numbers, ha, if you take away the printed fiat suporting the mess, my guess is flat at best...grow this bitch a new tit!

Tue, 04/08/2014 - 12:05 | 4635842 TaperProof
TaperProof's picture

Yeah thats one hell of a dead cat bounce

Tue, 04/08/2014 - 10:13 | 4635451 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

I used to work for a manager that on alternating days would tell me to be either "aggressively conservative" and "conservatively aggressive."

Tue, 04/08/2014 - 10:09 | 4635430 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

3.7% to 3.6%.... ridiculous. It's good to know that they can be so precise. The world will be lucky to break 1% in this environment, and that will be all due to inflation, not growth.

Tue, 04/08/2014 - 10:12 | 4635446 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Precision vs. accuracy.  They can shoot some pretty tight groupings.  Too bad they're all 10 feet to the left and low of the target.

Tue, 04/08/2014 - 10:09 | 4635431 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Idiot Maggot Fools

Tue, 04/08/2014 - 10:16 | 4635460 rucunus
rucunus's picture

Idle Mo Fos ?

Tue, 04/08/2014 - 13:39 | 4636205 ThirdWorldDude
ThirdWorldDude's picture

Invertebrate Mammonic Fascists

Tue, 04/08/2014 - 10:10 | 4635433 hairball48
hairball48's picture

Who cares?

Tue, 04/08/2014 - 10:10 | 4635436 medium giraffe
medium giraffe's picture

So that's what Unicorn droppings look like.

Tue, 04/08/2014 - 10:11 | 4635438 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Oh, this is economics stuff.  I'm glad none of this can affect the price of my stawks.  I was a little worried there for a minute.

Tue, 04/08/2014 - 10:11 | 4635440 pods
pods's picture

GDP can be whatever they want it to be. As long as you undershoot money printing GDP looks better.


Tue, 04/08/2014 - 10:14 | 4635455 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Crap like the above only makes the really sucessful predictions of the past that more impressive:

  1. Hubbert's 1956 accurate prediction of US oil production peaking in 1970, in the 60's he also predicted world production would peak in ~2000 whereas conventional crude oil peaked in 2005....
  2. The 1970 Club of Rome sponsered Limits to Growth study that predicted an end to economic growth by 2020...
  3. Broeckers 1975 prediction of the average global temperature in 2010....
Tue, 04/08/2014 - 10:19 | 4635470 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

"The 1970 Club of Rome sponsered Limits to Growth study that predicted an end to economic growth by 2020..."

that was a bit optimistic.  only off by 20 years.

Tue, 04/08/2014 - 14:51 | 4635487 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

See, for example

The LtG study wasn't perfect, but compared the drivel that economists and paid shills produced it was remarkably prescient...

Edit: here is an excellent overview of the model...

Tue, 04/08/2014 - 10:19 | 4635471 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

Were they predictions, or just previews of the game plan?

Familiar with the Georgia Guidestones?

Tue, 04/08/2014 - 10:23 | 4635476 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

LtG was not sold at the time as a prediction per se....

The other 2 were....

In fact if the growth rate of oil use Hubbert observed in the '60s had not been modified by the first oil shock of 1973, Hubbert would have been bang on for the global peak...

Math works, bitchez....

Tue, 04/08/2014 - 10:26 | 4635477 Zerozen
Zerozen's picture

Point 2 hasn't happened yet but I could definitely see that in the cards...

Tue, 04/08/2014 - 10:26 | 4635479 Zerozen
Zerozen's picture

The hockeystick charts make me think of Buzz Lightyear. "To infinity and beyond!"

Tue, 04/08/2014 - 10:53 | 4635556 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

There are enough hockey sticks now that iceing a new NHL team is not out of the question....

Tue, 04/08/2014 - 10:37 | 4635498 Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

I thought Sears has a copyright on Wish Books? 

Tue, 04/08/2014 - 10:40 | 4635507 TuPhat
TuPhat's picture

Please proof read your stuff a little more Tyler.  This was barely readable.

Tue, 04/08/2014 - 10:43 | 4635516 Remington IV
Remington IV's picture

Clueless Dolts

Tue, 04/08/2014 - 10:49 | 4635537 SpanishGoop
SpanishGoop's picture

Who are those people shifting that "V" shaped chart thingy quarter after quarter.

Do i know them ? should i know them ? do i want to know them, should i pay any attention to them ?



Tue, 04/08/2014 - 18:54 | 4637332 Bazza McKenzie
Bazza McKenzie's picture

Don't know about paying any attention to them -- but you are paying them.

Tue, 04/08/2014 - 11:08 | 4635608 adonisdemilo
adonisdemilo's picture

If this lot were employed by ANY respectable private business they wouldn't last 5 minutes.

Dreamers, one and all, with vivid imaginations.

Tue, 04/08/2014 - 11:10 | 4635623 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

It's been serious for a long time now.  It's all lies, pure and simple.  If they actually forecast the truth, the world would realize we're in a global depression.  Only thing that's kept us out of it "by appearance", is Central bank money printing.

Tue, 04/08/2014 - 11:59 | 4635807 adonisdemilo
adonisdemilo's picture

@ Colonel Klink

How can they forecast the truth when all their models are built on lies and false assumptions.

They wouldn't recognise the truth if it was served up on a dinner plate.

Tue, 04/08/2014 - 13:06 | 4636087 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

We all know it's done so on purpose.

Row faster serfs!

Tue, 04/08/2014 - 17:51 | 4637075 bunnyswanson
bunnyswanson's picture

Create the problem. 

Present the already prepared and the (only) solution. 

Take over.

Tue, 04/08/2014 - 11:19 | 4635653 starman
starman's picture

I can't find Nigerias indicator? 

Tue, 04/08/2014 - 12:02 | 4635820 adonisdemilo
adonisdemilo's picture

@ starman,

Look in the same place where you find the IMF's indicator, it's headed BULLSHIT.

Tue, 04/08/2014 - 12:29 | 4635961 Angelo Misterioso
Angelo Misterioso's picture
If you have to forecast, forecast often

Tue, 04/08/2014 - 22:26 | 4637906 are we there yet
are we there yet's picture

Wow!   This IMF forcast makes Mylie Cyrus twerking look modest!

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