Comedy Of Forecast Errors: Here Are The IMF's Latest Projections Of Economic Growth

Tyler Durden's picture

Another quarter, and another attempt at predicting the future by the people whose predictions have become the biggest butt of all economics jokes, even more so than Paul Krugman columns.

We are talking, of course, about the IMF's World Economic Outlook update.

It is here we learn that, at the same time as IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard was saying that the global economy is stronger and broader, the IMF... cut its 2014 global GDP outlook from 3.7% to 3.6%. Perfectly sensible of course, because it is the same mostly US-funded policy perpetuating economists that added that "sooner is better than later on ECB moves" - moves which naturally entail moar QE, the same QE which IMF staffers last night said has "costs that now otherwise its benefits." One can't even keep the lies straight any more, let along the truth.

In any case, aside from cut to global GDP, the IMF kept the and China US unchanged, boosted the Eurozone (we wonder how many more changes to the definition of what makes up European GDP will be required for that prediction to come true), and finally slashed Japan by 0.3% to just 1.4% in 2014 and 1.0% in 2015. Hardly the glowing testament that is the gift to people everywhere which is Abenomics, that Abe would like to hear.

Here are the charts showing not only the most recent forecast but the history of revisions in the past two years:









But the best chart, and the one that actually does matter, if not for the absolute level, but for the trendline, is that of world trade. Because while QE may manipulate relative asset prices and "wealth effects", in the absence of growth to global trade, and certainly contraction, there is only one possible outcome: global economic deterioration. Sadly, the trendline in historic and future global trade is very clear.

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Keyser's picture

Fairy Tales are nice to lull small children to sleep. Not so much with the educated investor. 

inky's picture

Looks like the IMF just spend all day playing pin the tail on the donkey !

pods's picture

Poop flinging monkeys.


Buckaroo Banzai's picture

So all these charts are STAWKS? Right?

Two-bits's picture

OT:  Lies, lies, and more damn lies.


An AP article about the Russia/Iran barter(read gold and military surplus)for oil deal, and how it will provide Iran with billions of DOLLARS!!! There isn't a fucking dollar within a pirogi's throw of this deal. 

...The Russian-Iranian oil deal could provide Tehran with billions of dollars, according to experts, softening the blow of years of U.S. and international sanctions that have crippled Iran's economy and helped end more than a decade of deadlock in nuclear negotiations. Iran insists its program is solely for peaceful power production.


MSM keeping the wool over your eyes as usual. Fuck these sophists.  Actors one and all.  I may extend my 90% silver bounty to these cocksuckers when I become a warlord after the reset. 


Alternating piked heads of banksters and MSM mouthpieces will be all the rage in the Winter '14 issue of Better Fortresses and Citadels.

Theosebes Goodfellow's picture

~"OT:  Lies, lies, and more damn lies."~

It's not lies, but I definitely want some of what Lagarde is smoking! You know, it's like her perception, man...

ATM's picture

"We will all be seeing growth in jut a few short months"........


Repeat each month ad infinitum and you too can work for the IMF for millins each year. Nice gig if you can get it.

mickeyman's picture

Shouldn't those be negative numbers?

davinci7_gis's picture

damn...those charts look like Al Gore's famous Hockey stick chart of how we all are going to die of carbon dioxide poisoning!

new game's picture

shouldn't these be negative numbers, ha, if you take away the printed fiat suporting the mess, my guess is flat at best...grow this bitch a new tit!

TaperProof's picture

Yeah thats one hell of a dead cat bounce

insanelysane's picture

I used to work for a manager that on alternating days would tell me to be either "aggressively conservative" and "conservatively aggressive."

Dr. Engali's picture

3.7% to 3.6%.... ridiculous. It's good to know that they can be so precise. The world will be lucky to break 1% in this environment, and that will be all due to inflation, not growth.

NoDebt's picture

Precision vs. accuracy.  They can shoot some pretty tight groupings.  Too bad they're all 10 feet to the left and low of the target.

buzzsaw99's picture

Idiot Maggot Fools

medium giraffe's picture

So that's what Unicorn droppings look like.

NoDebt's picture

Oh, this is economics stuff.  I'm glad none of this can affect the price of my stawks.  I was a little worried there for a minute.

pods's picture

GDP can be whatever they want it to be. As long as you undershoot money printing GDP looks better.


Flakmeister's picture

Crap like the above only makes the really sucessful predictions of the past that more impressive:

  1. Hubbert's 1956 accurate prediction of US oil production peaking in 1970, in the 60's he also predicted world production would peak in ~2000 whereas conventional crude oil peaked in 2005....
  2. The 1970 Club of Rome sponsered Limits to Growth study that predicted an end to economic growth by 2020...
  3. Broeckers 1975 prediction of the average global temperature in 2010....
101 years and counting's picture

"The 1970 Club of Rome sponsered Limits to Growth study that predicted an end to economic growth by 2020..."

that was a bit optimistic.  only off by 20 years.

Buckaroo Banzai's picture

Were they predictions, or just previews of the game plan?

Familiar with the Georgia Guidestones?

Flakmeister's picture

LtG was not sold at the time as a prediction per se....

The other 2 were....

In fact if the growth rate of oil use Hubbert observed in the '60s had not been modified by the first oil shock of 1973, Hubbert would have been bang on for the global peak...

Math works, bitchez....

Zerozen's picture

Point 2 hasn't happened yet but I could definitely see that in the cards...

Zerozen's picture

The hockeystick charts make me think of Buzz Lightyear. "To infinity and beyond!"

Flakmeister's picture

There are enough hockey sticks now that iceing a new NHL team is not out of the question....

Silverhog's picture

I thought Sears has a copyright on Wish Books? 

TuPhat's picture

Please proof read your stuff a little more Tyler.  This was barely readable.

SpanishGoop's picture

Who are those people shifting that "V" shaped chart thingy quarter after quarter.

Do i know them ? should i know them ? do i want to know them, should i pay any attention to them ?



Bazza McKenzie's picture

Don't know about paying any attention to them -- but you are paying them.

adonisdemilo's picture

If this lot were employed by ANY respectable private business they wouldn't last 5 minutes.

Dreamers, one and all, with vivid imaginations.

Colonel Klink's picture

It's been serious for a long time now.  It's all lies, pure and simple.  If they actually forecast the truth, the world would realize we're in a global depression.  Only thing that's kept us out of it "by appearance", is Central bank money printing.

adonisdemilo's picture

@ Colonel Klink

How can they forecast the truth when all their models are built on lies and false assumptions.

They wouldn't recognise the truth if it was served up on a dinner plate.

Colonel Klink's picture

We all know it's done so on purpose.

Row faster serfs!

bunnyswanson's picture

Create the problem. 

Present the already prepared and the (only) solution. 

Take over.

starman's picture

I can't find Nigerias indicator? 

adonisdemilo's picture

@ starman,

Look in the same place where you find the IMF's indicator, it's headed BULLSHIT.

Angelo Misterioso's picture
If you have to forecast, forecast often

are we there yet's picture

Wow!   This IMF forcast makes Mylie Cyrus twerking look modest!