Baltic Dry Collapses To Worst Start To A Year On Record

Tyler Durden's picture

If you listen very carefully, you will still hear absolutely nothing from any talking-heads of the utter collapse that the last few weeks have witnessed in the Baltic Dry shipping index. The Baltic Dry has dropped 12 days in a row and plunged back to $1061 - its lowest since August 2013. This is the worst start to a year on record... must be the weather.


The Baltic Dry has dropped 12 days in a row and is now back to its lowest levels since August 2013... and almost post-crisis lows...


Which is the worst start to a year since records began 30 years ago...


The last time we saw a year start like this was 2012 which saw massive concerted co-ordinated central bank easing in Q3 to save us all... it seems that is not coming anytime soon this time...


Data: Bloomberg

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LawsofPhysics's picture

When real goods and services stop crossing borders, troops will...


Can I interest you in a financial "product" of mass destruction?


Tick tock motherfuckers...

ArkansasAngie's picture

It's those dad gum Chinamen.  They are hoarding their plastic doodads.

Inventories are rising because companies are hoarding too.


Headbanger's picture

And damn!  It just keeps raining in the Baltic too!

So no wonder their dry index keeps falling. 

Sheeesh..  It's the weather again..

Big Slick's picture

Honestly, in the 1st chart, I don't see a change in either the Index level or cyclic activity that goes back quite a ways that warrents this alarmist conclusion

The 2nd chart is unclear if previous years' levels are YTD for all (i.e., early April levels for every one) or full year data for each and YTD for 2014.

A better case needs to be made for the conclusion you make. 

Headbanger's picture


But shirley you jest.

It's all global warming and Al Gore's fault for causing it.

Big Slick's picture

Indeed it is... and stop calling me Shirley

ParkAveFlasher's picture

Here comes my 19th nervous breakdown!

25or6to4's picture

Don't be silly! Everybody knows the Baltic freezes over in the winter time thus no shipping can get through. See, simple explanation. Long icebreakers!

yogibear's picture

And they keep ramping the market up.

LetThemEatRand's picture

Don't ask for whom the bell tolls; it tolls for Jamie.

fonzannoon's picture

Tyler I hope you put up the Santelli Segment that is on right now with Biderman where he is discussing not only how bullish he is but how he is planning on going long right after April 15th.

You would at least think with all these bankers suiciding themselves this guy would have done it a long time ago.

BandGap's picture

Just like Bud Dry, why ask why?

I guess we're out of life boats and preservers?

Catflappo's picture

Wow!  It's back to its lowest level since January 2014, and July 2013, and January 2013!  And September 2012!  Oh, and January 2012!!!



101 years and counting's picture

i think its time to start blaming el nino.  

Hindenburg...Oh Man's picture

That should be good for a 2-3 minute market decline, then some dip buying...

Quinvarius's picture

Our economic leaders just pooped a little bit.

Sudden Debt's picture

yeah, over the railing from a 50 story building... wear a hat..


BandGap's picture

Hat won't stop a turd missile from 500'. Just sayin'.

buzzsaw99's picture

The probrem is that china can't deliver moar ships on time. [/sarc]

q99x2's picture

De-globalization bitchez.


1stepcloser's picture

Round Eye need buy moar shit they not need!  

Sudden Debt's picture


God managed it afterall so it seems...

Quinvarius's picture

Some say the real Titanic did not sink.  There is some evidence to suggest the damaged sister ship was renamed to the titanic and sunk on purpose in a case of insurance fraud.  The real Titanic sailed on for decades.  Just thought I'd throw that out there in this age of discussing the morals of bankers.

SilverIsKing's picture

Are you telling me that I wasted $10 seeing that movie?

forwardho's picture

The fact that you Did waste your money is not contingent on the truth.

Sometimes, the movie just sucks.


HRamos_3's picture

So we're taking metrics into account now?

When did that happen?

A_Nejad's picture

Seriously speaking, most of the world run on Metrics so..

Back to the subject, could have the direct correlation with China's mess, but man it looks bad.  Better catch up with an old friend at Mærsk soon..

Iam_Silverman's picture

"Seriously speaking, most of the world run on Metrics so.."

Yeah, no shit.  I had to head on over to Harbor Freight the other day and buy a metric Crescent wrench just to work on my new Chinese bicycle!

Bunders's picture

Must be the fracking bonanza has lowered the cost of marine diesel to such an extent that the cost of shipping things has dropped such that it looks like there is less activity when in fact, as can be seen from the S&P500, the economy is roaring along.


Spungo's picture

Fuck the dry index. Tell me about the wet index. Does it breast feed?

A_Nejad's picture

LOL...I see what you did there Spungo!! :)

toadold's picture

The Wet Index depends on how many ships Putin sends into the Baltic Sea. 

Quinvarius's picture

How in the heck did we make money outsourcing when that thing was at 80,000?

Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Store Cash+PM for liquidity. 

Get and store everything else for Living & Bartering: e.g. Food, Water filtration, Tools, Parts, Meds, T/Paper, Toiletries, 80 Proof stuff, etc.

Form or join a good sized group of like-minded people, who are willing to solve problems and work together, not hide from them or splinter into irrelevance.  And beware of those with belligerent and extremist views of the universe (no matter what banner they fly) -- just because some sheep-shagging, semi-literate, smelly guys from hundreds or thousands of years ago said so. 

Hate to tell you this, but there is no "Big Daddy in the Sky" looking after you, in case you still need that fable to behave like decent human beings, or to sleep at night.  There's just us chickens, and there is No Fate, but the one we make.  Sorry.  In the meantime... "Religion is what keeps the poor from killing the very rich who are assholes".  It is also what provides a nice lifestyle for its best purveyors/salesmen, as they work hand-in-glove with the rich & powerful, and have done so ever since Emperor Constantine became a Christian an the First Pope (who was responsible for the New Testament as we know it).  Kirk out.

Boxed Merlot's picture

Store Cash+PM for liquidity…Form or join a good sized group of like-minded people, who are willing to solve problems and work together…

 Hate to tell you this, but there is no "Big Daddy in the Sky" looking after you, in case you still need that fable to behave like decent human beings, or to sleep at night.  There's just us chickens, and there is No Fate, but the one we make.  Sorry. 

"Religion is what keeps the poor from killing the very rich…”



I suspect you don’t “hate” to tell anyone who’s listening there is no Ultimate authority you may be held accountable to for your conduct.  You choose to deny it and instead rely on what power you do have to sustain your personal temporary existence and perhaps create offspring in the process that may inherit some of your genetic material but who can only be thankful for your efforts as you are for those who did the same for you.

Not that I disagree with your sentiments regarding prudent savings and free association, in fact I even may concede “religion” contributes to maintaining republic ideals in society, it’s just that my choice to believe in an afterlife is what gives meaning to the 70-80 orbits of my own personal being.  

So yeah, I’m guilty of being even more selfish than you.


I'm also hoping the rule of law prevails as I'm beneficiary of deeded mineral rights with known reserves.  It's the next best thing to knowing where your boat went down in your tragic accident.



logicalman's picture

Kirk only believes in one less god than you, give him a break!

LooseLee's picture

No, you are more FEARFUL, which can only exist in 'relation' to something. That 'something' is your 'self'....Fear is what keeps humans from 'enlightenment'. The 'me' (e.g. 'self) is what your Jesus said you must 'pass through' before meeting the 'Father'. Unfortunately, Christians have missed this metaphysical perception due to 'FEAR'. Instead of embrasing life and learning about these 'other things', the Christian dwells on 'his/her' own demise---which brings about the 'need' to create a 'savior'. There is no 'Savior', only self-knowledge...

TheFreeLance's picture

My own personal window on economic activity is tanking as well. I've been tracking the prices of vacation properties in the Blue Ridge for some time now, both for generational and banking sector data. Since the 2008 crash there have been several can-kicking false dawns which set up Spring 2014 as the run-for-the-exits moment. In other words, miss this selling season and you'll have to pay another year of property taxes in the fall. But you are out of money. Completely. Well, the rout looks to be on.

22winmag's picture

This Baltic Dry thingy sounded really scary back in 2012 but to my knowledge, nobody lost any fingers or toes.

forwardho's picture

Unless they had any connection to the shipping or processing of raw materials.

If so they have lost their asses.


Alananda's picture

Someone tell Brandon Smith!!

agstacks's picture

Looks like the Baltic Dry Index needs to be re-claibrated to the "modern" economy.  Can't we change a denominator somewhere to fix this?

alangreedspank's picture

BDI perfectly matches the two bubble eras of early 2000s. By lagging or trending, can't exactly tell from that chart.

Uber Vandal's picture

This is an even scarier chart.

Must be due to all of the fuel effecient vehicles,  the raging success of cash for clunkers, and green initiatives such as carpooling and bicycle paths; or perhaps people have gone ultra green, and gotten the newest mustang which has 1 horse power and 4 legs.

Can't be that people are working less hours or no longer have a job to drive to.

Boxed Merlot's picture

This is an even scarier chart...



Am I spending too much time on ZH and archived Firesign Theatre performances?  Why haven't I seen this touted anywhere?  The US is reduced to purchasing one third the amount of gas we've been buying per month on average for over 30 years?  Is it because it's being reported by a US agency?  Even so, surely the US Energy Information Administration hasn't sunk as low in credibility as to be as scorned as our beloved "security" agencies.  That information is nothing short of incredible.