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Consumer Spending "Recovery" Stalls As Pent-Up Demand Fails To Appear

Tyler Durden's picture




 

For the first time since the 'recovery' began, Gallup reports that consumer's average daily spending flatlined year-over-year. As Gallup concludes, at a daily rate of $87, Americans' average daily spending in March looks positive by comparison to spending over the past five years. But the stall in spending, both month-over-month and compared with a year ago, most likely signals a continuation of the lackluster retail sales seen so far in 2014. While government data suggested that retail sales rebounded in February (though still the weakest YoY since Nov 2009), the Gallup data appears to confirm the post-weather pent-up-demand has failed to arrive.

 

First YoY drop since the recession...

 

and the pent-up demand from a post-weather hibernation has not occurred...

 

Source: Gallup

 

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Wed, 04/09/2014 - 12:03 | 4639504 Doubleguns
Doubleguns's picture

Pent up wages have not showed up either. 

Wed, 04/09/2014 - 12:10 | 4639533 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Massive, epic, nasty, horrific and really big market drop in 3...2...1....

Wed, 04/09/2014 - 12:17 | 4639557 CHX
CHX's picture

Not gonna happen with FED, PPT et al. prining like madman, at least not quite yet... But a significant drop in the USD, and a pop in GOLD that outpaces the share market rise, will be sign of a profound currency event, when QE will be re-ramped up.

Thu, 04/10/2014 - 03:46 | 4642324 0z
0z's picture

These numbers dont mean much without the fastest-growing part of the economy- The black market. Saved a lot of people from starving in the USSR, and it is the most efficient at destroying the value of bad banknotes.

Wed, 04/09/2014 - 12:04 | 4639506 Frank N. Beans
Frank N. Beans's picture

like people track their daily spending? 

 

Wed, 04/09/2014 - 12:28 | 4639602 alangreedspank
alangreedspank's picture

Why do so ? Your home (actually, the bank's) cannot but rise in value! Pile on brah!

Wed, 04/09/2014 - 14:59 | 4640238 roadhazard
roadhazard's picture

$87 a day equals out to just over $30,600. a year. That's everything the "average" wage earner makes. That doesn't leave much to buy gold/silver.

Wed, 04/09/2014 - 12:04 | 4639510 Last of the Mid...
Last of the Middle Class's picture

Pent up rage and anger may show up soon tho.

Wed, 04/09/2014 - 12:32 | 4639621 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Re:  Pent up rage and anger may show up soon tho

The bottom 80% Trash Class might poor but they aren't starving.  

Plus,  most of the Trash Class knows that their kids are above average and, because of Merican exceptionalism, all their kids will be in the top 20% someday,  so - complaining about class-warfare, really - in the long run, is just hurting your own children's future success.

Wed, 04/09/2014 - 12:05 | 4639511 pods
pods's picture

And as time goes on people are spending more FRNs for less goods so demand is really contracting.

pods

 

Wed, 04/09/2014 - 12:07 | 4639521 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

It should rise steadily with inflation until it drops off suddenly.  Then look outside for corpses that died of starvation.

Wed, 04/09/2014 - 12:11 | 4639535 Spungo
Spungo's picture

The NSA tracks your daily spending. Duh.

Wed, 04/09/2014 - 12:15 | 4639541 alangreedspank
alangreedspank's picture

I could understand the argument that cold(er) weather weakened retail sales this winter, but why would anyone expect pent up demand? The extra money that was spent on heating bills is gone. *Poof* Not pent up in Yellen's trousers!

Wed, 04/09/2014 - 12:13 | 4639543 CHX
CHX's picture

After the cold, it must be the pollen / hay fever season kicking in that keeps people from spending... /sarc

Wed, 04/09/2014 - 12:15 | 4639544 1stepcloser
1stepcloser's picture

Doesn't pent up jizz count?  I got some whore spending to do!

Wed, 04/09/2014 - 12:23 | 4639580 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

China is going to send a lot of theirs this way. Prepare. 

Wed, 04/09/2014 - 12:26 | 4639591 1stepcloser
1stepcloser's picture

This is deflationary...Moar QE and See Alice!

Wed, 04/09/2014 - 13:03 | 4639759 Winston of Oceania
Winston of Oceania's picture

China is sending us whores? Are they by any chance Trojan Whores?

Wed, 04/09/2014 - 12:17 | 4639556 alangreedspank
alangreedspank's picture

You know what's pent up? Massive credit defaults. That's what's pent up.

Wed, 04/09/2014 - 12:22 | 4639574 GolfHatesMe
GolfHatesMe's picture

Also up - alternative definitions of the word Default

Wed, 04/09/2014 - 14:24 | 4640089 Ban KKiller
Ban KKiller's picture

Aren't derivatives "pent up" the moment they are inked

If real money is spent it, is on hard assets. Shiney ones. 

Wed, 04/09/2014 - 12:18 | 4639560 grid-b-gone
grid-b-gone's picture

The weather is too good to shop. Sunny and 60 degrees in the Midwest today. Who wants to be cooped up in a store?

Wed, 04/09/2014 - 12:32 | 4639622 McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

Then comes summer, when everyone will go to the beach instead of shopping.

After that comes autumn, when everyone will go for long, contemplative walks in the woods instead of shopping.

After that comes winter, when everyone will be inside gathered around a cozy fire or outside enjoying the snow and building a snowman instead of shopping.

Then comes next spring, when it's sunny and 60 degrees...

Etc.

Wed, 04/09/2014 - 12:19 | 4639563 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Why are we showing one set of charts?

Didn't CHS's previous post clearly show that there's two separate societies:  The Elysium Class (and their support workers) and the Trash Class.    

Why can't we have separate charts for the winners and losers (if for no other reason than to laugh at the Trash Class).

Wed, 04/09/2014 - 12:21 | 4639569 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

   How much of that daily $87 goes to taxes and .gov graft? My guess is there's about $27 left for joe sixpack... enough for a blowjob from a Detroit hooker and a sixpack of Swill.

Wed, 04/09/2014 - 12:22 | 4639576 Save_America1st
Save_America1st's picture

it's still cold outside at night and I think it snowed in a few places in the Rockies last night too...brrrrr...can't spend monies in this bad weather, dontchya know...

Wed, 04/09/2014 - 12:22 | 4639578 Mr Giggles
Mr Giggles's picture

Post-weather, Post-economy world.

Wed, 04/09/2014 - 12:22 | 4639579 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

Like maybe the increases in spending over the past few years reflect the REAL inflation rate??  And maybe the spending isn't for NEW things, but merely to pay for higher gas prices, higher food prices, and a few other things needed to live on?  If consumers really were buying MORE and NEW things, then the economy would already be booming.  Because they are buying the same stuff, but at higher prices, there is no econmic growth.

Wed, 04/09/2014 - 12:23 | 4639581 JR
JR's picture

“A few days ago McDonald’s Ukrainian arm suggested its Crimean employees could transfer to other branches outside the peninsula.”  But, wait, now they can transfer to Burger King!

Fast move: Burger King to enter Crimea after McDonald’s quit (April 09, 2014, RT)   

http://rt.com/business/burger-king-crimea-launch-417/

“The company (McDonald’s) has also deleted its Crimean company information from its website.”

Hey, Ron, you can run, but you can’t hide.

Wed, 04/09/2014 - 12:37 | 4639597 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture

Burger King may own McDonald's in a few years. Warren Buffet loves them burgers.

Heinz or Hunts? Why did McDonald's switch to Hunts? Because Buffet owns Heinz too?

Wed, 04/09/2014 - 12:41 | 4639676 Ralph Spoilsport
Ralph Spoilsport's picture

Hard to believe but the so-called food at 'Burger Thing' is even worse than McDs. As far as Buffet, I remember when he went all in on Dairy Queen. Rest assured Buffet doesn't eat at any of these places.

Wed, 04/09/2014 - 13:04 | 4639765 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture

Private equity smells value in burgers.

Wed, 04/09/2014 - 12:23 | 4639585 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

"...the Gallup data appears to confirm the post-weather pent-up-demand has failed to arrive."

It's that darn Spring weather.  It has driven people outside to enjoy the nice weather, and people recovering from "cabin fever" refuse to go inside brick-and-mortar stores and shop and/or stay inside their homes and shop online.  It's the Spring weather's fault...

WeatherFUBAR. 

Wed, 04/09/2014 - 12:24 | 4639586 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

I have pent up demand for sure. I just Don't have any pent up money. Masturbation. 

Wed, 04/09/2014 - 14:22 | 4640075 Ban KKiller
Ban KKiller's picture

Work at SEC?

Wed, 04/09/2014 - 12:26 | 4639592 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  Everyone is clearly waiting for the "winter clearance sale" in June. /s

Wed, 04/09/2014 - 12:26 | 4639593 Pairadimes
Pairadimes's picture

The economy is a corpse, and the Fed is selling the organs. Inflation and asset bubbles were briefly providing the illusion of growth to those who were desperately looking for signs of life, but the dead body has passed the zenith of its bounce, and is on the way back down again. Hedge accordingly.

Wed, 04/09/2014 - 12:35 | 4639639 SMC
SMC's picture

Well, what did they think would happen with the Obummercare, etc.. taxes?

The Federal Government and Fed Reserve polices appear to be focused on taking care of the crony-capitalists and their government minions.

They can "print" all they want, diluting the purchasing ability of our earnings and dollar denominated savings - which just makes us more frugal and determined to find a better place to live.

Wed, 04/09/2014 - 12:38 | 4639655 undertowed
undertowed's picture

$27 for a BJ and a six pack in Detroit?  That's what they should be advertising to get people back to Detroit. Fuck Clint Eastwood!

Wed, 04/09/2014 - 12:39 | 4639668 Spungo
Spungo's picture

$27 for a BJ without HIV. $20 with.

Wed, 04/09/2014 - 12:49 | 4639714 1stepcloser
1stepcloser's picture

How much for Rayon?  You know the Dallas Buyers club, pre-surgical tranny type!   

Wed, 04/09/2014 - 13:52 | 4639967 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

"$27 for a BJ without HIV. $20 with."

Why would they youcharge less if you have HIV?  Seems kinda backwards to me.

Wed, 04/09/2014 - 12:44 | 4639691 AcidRastaHead
AcidRastaHead's picture

Not sure what you guys are talking about.  I planned to buy tons of stuff in Q1 but between all this sun, rain, clouds, and snow how can I possibly purchase anything?

Wed, 04/09/2014 - 12:56 | 4639734 Iam Yue2
Iam Yue2's picture

But was it not pent up demand that underpinned the MS and GS growth stories???.

Wed, 04/09/2014 - 12:59 | 4639745 NOTfromSanFrancisco
NOTfromSanFrancisco's picture

 

 

Spending on What?

Does additional cc debt or car loan debt or school loan debt count as spending?

Spending the same but getting less... Less food, less utilities, less medical, less insurance, etc.?

Too big of a brush and too few details to know what to do with this article... IMO

 

Wed, 04/09/2014 - 13:11 | 4639798 Itchy and Scratchy
Itchy and Scratchy's picture

It's all about 'supply & command!'

Wed, 04/09/2014 - 13:50 | 4639960 toros
toros's picture

All part of the work less spend more computer revolution
http://www.gallup.com/poll/168218/payroll-population-rate-march.aspx

Wed, 04/09/2014 - 13:50 | 4639963 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

Clearly we need a VAT to help induce consumer spending.  Maybe just a national sales tax instead.  If we carefully model ours after the one started in Japan, we can reap the same benefits, can't we?

Wed, 04/09/2014 - 13:57 | 4639980 esum
esum's picture

amerika = land of instant gratification..............

exactly what PENT UP DEMAND are you talking about ........

got my EBT,SNAP,BAMAPHONE,BAMACARE,BAMASTUDENT LOAN,BAMABABY,BAMATAXREBATE,XBOX,KFC,WMELON, REEBOKS,AND MAH DROPTOP BENZ.... sukka

now say that again in mexican... yeah i know they speak spanglish.... you got the drift sukka 

Wed, 04/09/2014 - 14:14 | 4640037 Carl Popper
Carl Popper's picture

There has been a secular cultural change, a perfect storm aligned with shifting demographics and baby boomer's spending and investment habits.  

 

More women staying home.

Fewer of total population employed

97 percent if new private credit creation is autos and loans to Phoenix University. 

 

The Fed can QE forevah.  As long as the world does not turn away from the dollar, but when the dollar is used less in international trade then our last line of money creation collapses. 

 

After an orgy of spending the hangover lasts at least a generation according to previous secular credit tops.  People don't give as shit about keeping up with the Jones' anymore.   I think I will like parts of our new normal.   But it will bring tremendous pain in the next decade. 

Wed, 04/09/2014 - 14:17 | 4640053 Fix It Again Timmy
Fix It Again Timmy's picture

No jobs, no money, no sales... and I ain't even a PhD...

Wed, 04/09/2014 - 14:30 | 4640115 Ban KKiller
Ban KKiller's picture

Pent up? That is funny. Just buying hard assets that were pent down. Thanks! 

Tune in, turn on and drop out. Man oh man, tptb, hate it when you drop out of any consumerism...buying used really freaks them as does gardening. Oh...and no debt? That makes you a revolutionary!

You can tell I am still reading James Madison bios. 

Wed, 04/09/2014 - 15:28 | 4640380 A Cruel Accountant
A Cruel Accountant's picture

I blame MR. Money Mousestache.

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