Consumer Spending "Recovery" Stalls As Pent-Up Demand Fails To Appear

Tyler Durden's picture

For the first time since the 'recovery' began, Gallup reports that consumer's average daily spending flatlined year-over-year. As Gallup concludes, at a daily rate of $87, Americans' average daily spending in March looks positive by comparison to spending over the past five years. But the stall in spending, both month-over-month and compared with a year ago, most likely signals a continuation of the lackluster retail sales seen so far in 2014. While government data suggested that retail sales rebounded in February (though still the weakest YoY since Nov 2009), the Gallup data appears to confirm the post-weather pent-up-demand has failed to arrive.


First YoY drop since the recession...


and the pent-up demand from a post-weather hibernation has not occurred...


Source: Gallup

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Doubleguns's picture

Pent up wages have not showed up either. 

Headbanger's picture

Massive, epic, nasty, horrific and really big market drop in 3...2...1....

CHX's picture

Not gonna happen with FED, PPT et al. prining like madman, at least not quite yet... But a significant drop in the USD, and a pop in GOLD that outpaces the share market rise, will be sign of a profound currency event, when QE will be re-ramped up.

0z's picture

These numbers dont mean much without the fastest-growing part of the economy- The black market. Saved a lot of people from starving in the USSR, and it is the most efficient at destroying the value of bad banknotes.

Frank N. Beans's picture

like people track their daily spending? 


alangreedspank's picture

Why do so ? Your home (actually, the bank's) cannot but rise in value! Pile on brah!

roadhazard's picture

$87 a day equals out to just over $30,600. a year. That's everything the "average" wage earner makes. That doesn't leave much to buy gold/silver.

Last of the Middle Class's picture

Pent up rage and anger may show up soon tho.

NOTaREALmerican's picture

Re:  Pent up rage and anger may show up soon tho

The bottom 80% Trash Class might poor but they aren't starving.  

Plus,  most of the Trash Class knows that their kids are above average and, because of Merican exceptionalism, all their kids will be in the top 20% someday,  so - complaining about class-warfare, really - in the long run, is just hurting your own children's future success.

pods's picture

And as time goes on people are spending more FRNs for less goods so demand is really contracting.



Quinvarius's picture

It should rise steadily with inflation until it drops off suddenly.  Then look outside for corpses that died of starvation.

Spungo's picture

The NSA tracks your daily spending. Duh.

alangreedspank's picture

I could understand the argument that cold(er) weather weakened retail sales this winter, but why would anyone expect pent up demand? The extra money that was spent on heating bills is gone. *Poof* Not pent up in Yellen's trousers!

CHX's picture

After the cold, it must be the pollen / hay fever season kicking in that keeps people from spending... /sarc

1stepcloser's picture

Doesn't pent up jizz count?  I got some whore spending to do!

Seasmoke's picture

China is going to send a lot of theirs this way. Prepare. 

1stepcloser's picture

This is deflationary...Moar QE and See Alice!

Winston of Oceania's picture

China is sending us whores? Are they by any chance Trojan Whores?

alangreedspank's picture

You know what's pent up? Massive credit defaults. That's what's pent up.

GolfHatesMe's picture

Also up - alternative definitions of the word Default

Ban KKiller's picture

Aren't derivatives "pent up" the moment they are inked

If real money is spent it, is on hard assets. Shiney ones. 

grid-b-gone's picture

The weather is too good to shop. Sunny and 60 degrees in the Midwest today. Who wants to be cooped up in a store?

McMolotov's picture

Then comes summer, when everyone will go to the beach instead of shopping.

After that comes autumn, when everyone will go for long, contemplative walks in the woods instead of shopping.

After that comes winter, when everyone will be inside gathered around a cozy fire or outside enjoying the snow and building a snowman instead of shopping.

Then comes next spring, when it's sunny and 60 degrees...


NOTaREALmerican's picture

Why are we showing one set of charts?

Didn't CHS's previous post clearly show that there's two separate societies:  The Elysium Class (and their support workers) and the Trash Class.    

Why can't we have separate charts for the winners and losers (if for no other reason than to laugh at the Trash Class).

Yen Cross's picture

   How much of that daily $87 goes to taxes and .gov graft? My guess is there's about $27 left for joe sixpack... enough for a blowjob from a Detroit hooker and a sixpack of Swill.

Save_America1st's picture

it's still cold outside at night and I think it snowed in a few places in the Rockies last night too...brrrrr...can't spend monies in this bad weather, dontchya know...

Mr Giggles's picture

Post-weather, Post-economy world.

NoWayJose's picture

Like maybe the increases in spending over the past few years reflect the REAL inflation rate??  And maybe the spending isn't for NEW things, but merely to pay for higher gas prices, higher food prices, and a few other things needed to live on?  If consumers really were buying MORE and NEW things, then the economy would already be booming.  Because they are buying the same stuff, but at higher prices, there is no econmic growth.

JR's picture

“A few days ago McDonald’s Ukrainian arm suggested its Crimean employees could transfer to other branches outside the peninsula.”  But, wait, now they can transfer to Burger King!

Fast move: Burger King to enter Crimea after McDonald’s quit (April 09, 2014, RT)

“The company (McDonald’s) has also deleted its Crimean company information from its website.”

Hey, Ron, you can run, but you can’t hide.

Chuck Knoblauch's picture

Burger King may own McDonald's in a few years. Warren Buffet loves them burgers.

Heinz or Hunts? Why did McDonald's switch to Hunts? Because Buffet owns Heinz too?

Ralph Spoilsport's picture

Hard to believe but the so-called food at 'Burger Thing' is even worse than McDs. As far as Buffet, I remember when he went all in on Dairy Queen. Rest assured Buffet doesn't eat at any of these places.

Chuck Knoblauch's picture

Private equity smells value in burgers.

John Law Lives's picture

"...the Gallup data appears to confirm the post-weather pent-up-demand has failed to arrive."

It's that darn Spring weather.  It has driven people outside to enjoy the nice weather, and people recovering from "cabin fever" refuse to go inside brick-and-mortar stores and shop and/or stay inside their homes and shop online.  It's the Spring weather's fault...


Seasmoke's picture

I have pent up demand for sure. I just Don't have any pent up money. Masturbation. 

Yen Cross's picture

  Everyone is clearly waiting for the "winter clearance sale" in June. /s

Pairadimes's picture

The economy is a corpse, and the Fed is selling the organs. Inflation and asset bubbles were briefly providing the illusion of growth to those who were desperately looking for signs of life, but the dead body has passed the zenith of its bounce, and is on the way back down again. Hedge accordingly.

SMC's picture

Well, what did they think would happen with the Obummercare, etc.. taxes?

The Federal Government and Fed Reserve polices appear to be focused on taking care of the crony-capitalists and their government minions.

They can "print" all they want, diluting the purchasing ability of our earnings and dollar denominated savings - which just makes us more frugal and determined to find a better place to live.

undertowed's picture

$27 for a BJ and a six pack in Detroit?  That's what they should be advertising to get people back to Detroit. Fuck Clint Eastwood!

Spungo's picture

$27 for a BJ without HIV. $20 with.

1stepcloser's picture

How much for Rayon?  You know the Dallas Buyers club, pre-surgical tranny type!   

Iam_Silverman's picture

"$27 for a BJ without HIV. $20 with."

Why would they youcharge less if you have HIV?  Seems kinda backwards to me.

AcidRastaHead's picture

Not sure what you guys are talking about.  I planned to buy tons of stuff in Q1 but between all this sun, rain, clouds, and snow how can I possibly purchase anything?

Iam Yue2's picture

But was it not pent up demand that underpinned the MS and GS growth stories???.

NOTfromSanFrancisco's picture



Spending on What?

Does additional cc debt or car loan debt or school loan debt count as spending?

Spending the same but getting less... Less food, less utilities, less medical, less insurance, etc.?

Too big of a brush and too few details to know what to do with this article... IMO


Itchy and Scratchy's picture

It's all about 'supply & command!'

Iam_Silverman's picture

Clearly we need a VAT to help induce consumer spending.  Maybe just a national sales tax instead.  If we carefully model ours after the one started in Japan, we can reap the same benefits, can't we?

esum's picture

amerika = land of instant gratification..............

exactly what PENT UP DEMAND are you talking about ........


now say that again in mexican... yeah i know they speak spanglish.... you got the drift sukka 

Carl Popper's picture

There has been a secular cultural change, a perfect storm aligned with shifting demographics and baby boomer's spending and investment habits.  


More women staying home.

Fewer of total population employed

97 percent if new private credit creation is autos and loans to Phoenix University. 


The Fed can QE forevah.  As long as the world does not turn away from the dollar, but when the dollar is used less in international trade then our last line of money creation collapses. 


After an orgy of spending the hangover lasts at least a generation according to previous secular credit tops.  People don't give as shit about keeping up with the Jones' anymore.   I think I will like parts of our new normal.   But it will bring tremendous pain in the next decade.